ValdisTF Posted January 10, 2017 Author Share Posted January 10, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 11.01.2017 Euro General overview The euro strengthened the other day after EU's Investor Confidence upbeat data. However, the dollar managed to reverse some losses on Tuesday amid the recent Fed representatives’ remarks who supported the rate hike actions in 2017. Traders are in wait and see mode now awaiting for Trump’s conference which is set for January 11th. There were no relevant macroeconomic releases scheduled in the EU for Tuesday Current situation The euro momentum began fading after piercing the level 1.0600 during the early hours on Tuesday. Having posted the daily high at 1.0626 the EUR/USD pair retreated and returned below 1.0600 post-European session open. Sellers kept pushing the single European currency downwards ahead of the NY opening. According to the 4 hours chart the price continued developing well above the 200-EMA which acted as a support for the currency pair. The 100 and the 200-EMAs were flat while the 50-EMA kept pointing higher. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550. The technical indicators aim modestly lower within positive territory. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator stayed within undervalued territory. Trading recommendations We expect to see renewed bearish pressure in the short-term. A break below 1.0550 may suggest further weakness of the EURUSD pair. The level 1.0500 may become the next bearish target. Pound General overview The pound stabilized on Tuesday after Theresa May’s recent remarks. Moreover, hard-Brexit concerns continue weighing on the investors’ sentiment. Investors’ attention now turns to Manufacturing Production and Industrial Production releases. Current situation Bears kept the market in control tightening their grip. After a brief consolidation in the Asian session the pound extended its weakness on Tuesday. Sellers pushed the pair lower and reached 1.2100 with London opening. The spot was in a consolidation phase ahead of the NY session opening. The price stays well below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope. The resistance lies at 1.2200, the support comes in at 1.2100. The technical indicators turned lower. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI indicator remained within oversold levels. Trading recommendations The pound is short term oversold and may reverse some losses. We do not rule out a minor recovery to 1.2200 which is a good chance to open short positions. Despite the oversold readings we do not see any signs the pair may change its current course any time soon. A move below 1.2100 will return sellers in the driver’s seat pushing the GBP/USD pair to 1.2000. Yen General overview Consumer Confidence in Japan coincided with the forecast. The yen ignored the report and weakened versus the dollar before Trump's conference. Current situation Sellers managed to lead the price lower in the early trades on Tuesday. The price touched the level 115.00 and immediately bounced off it trading with mild bearish bias afterwards. The US dollar spent the first part of the day at 116.00. The ongoing recovery could be attributed to some profit taking from bears amid risk aversion. The price bounced off the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA pointed higher while the 50 and the 100-EMAs were flat. The resistance is highlighted at 116.00, the support comes in at 115.00. The technical indicators are pointing lower and suggest further easing. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI was within oversold readings close to the neutral territory. Trading recommendations The technical picture presents a bullish tone. A break above 116.00 suggests further growth towards 117.00. Alternatively, the dollar's inability to recover today could cause a drop towards the 114.00 handle. AUD/USD General overview The Australian dollar weakened on Tuesday amid downbeat Retail Sales release. Moreover, disappointing releases of Chinese CPI weighed on the Aussie. Current situation An attempt to advance beyond 0.7350 failed on Tuesday. Buyers climbed up to 0.7385 where the pair came across fresh offers and dropped to 0.7350. After testing the level sellers continued battling with it trying to push the price lower. The 4 hours chart showed that the price tested the 200-EMA in the early trades. The 200-EMA slowed down bulls’ advance being a tough nut to crack acting as a resistance for the spot. The 100 and the 200-EMAs were neutral while the 50-EMA kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7400, the support comes in at 0.7350. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator consolidated within undervalued readings. Trading recommendations The bearish trend remained intact. If the price fixates below the support 0.7350, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential sellers’ targets are 0.7300 and 0.7250. XAU/USD General overview Gold prices hit 6-week highs amid broad base dollar retracement due to growing uncertainty over the Fed rate hike in 2017. The first Trump’s conference in 2017 attracts investors’ attention now. Current situation Gold extended its near-term bullish momentum and rose to its highest level since early December on Tuesday. Buyers led the price from 1180 to 1187 dollars per ounce where the advance lost upward momentum. A light selling interest weighed on the pair pushing it to 1182. The price hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA kept pointing higher and crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 100 and the 200-EMAs were neutral. The resistance exists at 1190, the support stands at 1180 dollars per ounce. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator remained within undervalued territory. Trading recommendations We hold the view that gold prices will drop below the 1180 handle. The next level to focus on is 1170 dollars per ounce. Brent General overview Oil prices recovered some ground on Tuesday on hopes that OPEC and non-OPEC members will cut oil output. The ongoing dollar weakness also aids the recovery in the black gold. Meanwhile investors await for API stockpiles data. Current situation Brent seems to have found a solid support at 54.50 dollars per barrel. The benchmark bounced off the level after testing it. Oil prices managed to reverse a minor portion of their losses overnight. Brent recovered to 55.50 where it spent the whole European session. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 50 and the 100 EMAs downwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were flat while the 200-EMA pointed higher. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel. MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains within the negative readings, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI indicator was within the oversold territory. Trading recommendations Now bears keep focus at 54.50 dollars per barrel. We think that further weakening to 53.50 is not ruled out. DAX General overview European stocks slightly edged higher amid corporate earnings reports and commodity currencies strengthening. The recovery was limited amid concerns over Italian banks. Current situation DAX extended its consolidative pattern on Tuesday trading comfortably between 11600 and 11500, being unable to set short-term direction. Buyers moved the price to the upper boundary of the range in the Asian session. After touching the level the benchmark moved back and stopped around 11550 post-European open. The price hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The price tested the 50-EMA and continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500. The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI was within the neutral area and headed upwards. Trading recommendations We expect the index to remain in the current range. A clear break of either side is needed to signal fresh direction. S&P500 General overview US stocks were neutral at open amid oil prices flat. Current situation Sellers met a barrier at 2260 which rejected the price upwards. The benchmark was able to reverse a minor portion of yesterday’s losses and grew up to 2265 where the upward momentum lost its legs in the mid-European session. The price broke the 100-EMA upwards in the 1 hour chart. The 50 and 200-EMAs were flat while the 100-EMA pointed higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI was within the neutral area. Trading recommendations The price maintained its bullish tone in the 4 hours chart. A recovery above the 2280 level will favor an advance up to the 2300 region. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 12.01.2017 Euro General overview The euro turned bearish on yesterday's trades. The EU and US calendars were light. All investors’ attention focused on upcoming US President Donald Trump's speech. Current situation The euro continued moving lower yesterday. Traders pushed the price to 1.0550 where EUR/USD developed a short-term consolidation in the early trades. The pair ran through fresh offers on European open and accelerated its decline afterwards. Sellers broke below 1.0550 and dragged the single European currency to 1.0500. The price broke the 200-EMA downwards and tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and the 200-EMAs remained flat while the 50-EMA kept moving higher. The resistance is at 1.0550, the support comes in at 1.0500. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator left undervalued territory and headed south. Trading recommendations We believe the selling interest in the short term will remain intact. A breakout of 1.0500 would aim for next sellers’ target at 1.0450 and 1.0400. Pound General overview The pound lost further ground on Wednesday. Concerns of 'hard Brexit' continued attracting fresh selling pressure around the Cable. Moreover, the mixed UK data failed to provide any sufficient support for the British pound: Industrial and Manufacturing Production came in positive while Trade Balance and Goods Trade Balance came in the red. Investors were also focused on BOE Governor Mark Carney's testimony before the Parliament during the US session. Current situation The Cable failed to sustain the Asian recovery which stalled around 1.2200. After touching the level the price bounced off it and weakened to 1.2100 after London's opening. Having touched the level the GBP/USD pair rolled back reversing some of its losses. The spot bounced downwards off the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The price continued developing well below the moving averages afterwards. The 200-EMA was neutral while the 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed lower in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2200, the support comes in at 1.2100. The MACD histogram returned into the negative area, that indicates sellers’ growing strength. The RSI indicator was within oversold readings. Trading recommendations The price maintained its bearish tone in the 4 hours chart. We would keep selling the Cable if the price drops below 1.2100, en route to 1.2000. Yen General overview The dollar was able to reverse a minor portion of its recent losses awaiting for the Donald Trump's first news conference since the election. Current situation The pair traded sideways staying contained to a range of 50 pips or less during the Asian session on Wednesday. Buyers were able to regain more room in the early European trades. The spot climbed up to 116.43 where the upward momentum lost its legs. The price continued hovering above the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA limited the upside for the spot. The 200-EMA kept pointing higher while the 50 and the 100 EMAs moved lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 117.00, the support comes in at 116.00. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI left oversold readings and headed north. Trading recommendations A close above 117.00 will generate fresh bullish signal for further advance, which could extend to the 118.00 hurdle. Conversely, a move below 115.00 would revive bearishness towards 114.00. NZD/USD General overview The NZD/USD edged lower amid a stronger dollar. Meanwhile, oil prices weakening weigh on commodity currencies – like the kiwi. Current situation The NZD/USD pair turned positive on Wednesday. An overnight rebound lifted the kiwi out of the red. The New Zealand dollar broke 0.7000 in the Asian session and headed towards 0.7050 in European trades. However, the upward momentum faded soon. After posting a daily high at 0.7020 the NZD returned to 0.7000 handle. The price was between the 50 and the 200-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA headed north crossing the 100-EMA upwards. The 100 and the 200-EMAs were flat in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7000, the support comes in at 0.6950. MACD traded to the downside. The RSI indicator left the overvalued readings and entered the neutral area. Trading recommendations We expect the NZDUSD pair to return to the support 0.6950 in the short-term. In this scenario the spot may continue its decline towards 0.6900. XAU/USD General overview Gold stayed bullish heading into Trump’s new conference scheduled later on the day. Current situation Gold maintained its bid tone trading in the green zone on Wednesday. The upmove, however, lacked momentum around 1190 where the precious metal faced sellers' resistance. The 4 hours chart showed that the price continued developing well above the moving averages. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed higher while the 200-EMA remained flat. The resistance exists at 1190, the support stands at 1180 dollars per ounce. MACD remained at the same level which confirmed the strength of buyers. RSI indicator consolidated within undervalued territory. Trading recommendations We consider a possible correction towards the support 1180. Should the metal breaks the level down the pair may extend its losses towards 1170 dollars per ounce. Brent General overview Oil prices managed to reverse a minor portion of their losses in the early trades on Wednesday. However, the recovery was limited due to doubts over OPEC deal non-compliance. Current situation Oil prices found strong support at the level of 53.50 dollars per barrel. Being unable to break the handle the benchmark rolled back. The ongoing recovery could be attributed to some profit taking from bears following Tuesday's sharp sell-off. Brent oil prices were calm during the Asian session and accelerated their growth in the European one. The price was struggling with the 200-EMA which provided a solid support for the Brent in the 4 hours chart. The 100 was neutral, the 200-EMAs moved upwards while the 50-EMA headed south in the same chart. The resistance lies at 54.50, the support comes in at 53.50 dollars per barrel. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI indicator remained within the oversold territory. Trading recommendations We believe the market is overbought and vulnerable to a further downward correction. Brent may suffer more losses if the benchmark breaks below 53.50. Sellers may drag the price towards 52.50 dollars per barrel. DAX General overview European financial stocks edged higher despite cautious sentiment in the market amid Donald Trump's press-conference. Current situation Traders kept the price in a near-term directionless mode in the Asian session Wednesday. DAX extended its consolidative pattern staying in the familiar range between 11600 and 11500 levels. The index started the day from the upper limit of the range. Staying around 11600 in the Asian session the benchmark sharply dropped to 11520 at the start of the European session. After touching the level 11500 the benchmark reversed its direction and jumped back to the 11600 hurdle. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI left the neutral area and headed north. Trading recommendations Any move below the immediate support would increase chances of testing the 11500 mark, en route to 11400. Alternatively, a bullish momentum is likely to be regained if the benchmark breaks above 11600. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street futures were flat at the open on Wednesday as investors looked forward to Trump’s first press conference since his election victory later in the day. Traders did not hurry to build up fresh positions preferring wait and see mode. Current situation After posting fresh multi months highs at 5044 the index rolled back and returned to 5020 where buyers took a breath consolidating their recent gains. Another attempt to grow took place in the early trades on Wednesday. Buyers managed to reverse their early losses and moved the benchmark to 5030. According to the 4 hours chart the price continued developing well above the moving averages. The moving averages kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 5060, the support comes in at 5020. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within the positive area. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay bearish for now. If we see a close below 5020 we will sell. Our next level to focus on is 4980. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 13.01.2017 Euro General overview The euro slowed down with its growth despite the positive EU data. Consumer Price index met traders' expectations in France while the EU's Industrial Production came in better than expected. Current situation The euro extended its near-term upward trajectory in the early trades on Thursday. The single European currency broke 1.0600 during the Asian night trade and advanced towards 1.0650 afterwards. The pair pierced the 1.0650 hurdle post-European open and immediately returned below the broken level. EUR/USD rally seems to have ran out of steam as we witnessed the price inability to reclaim 1.0650 in the late European session. The spot hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA was neutral while the 50 and the 100-EMAS pointed higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator left neutral territory and headed north. Trading recommendations Even though the technical picture presents a bullish tone we expect a correction based on profit taking which may start as soon as the price drops below the 1.0600 level. In this case the spot may reach 1.0550. A move below 1.0550 will neutralize the current buying sentiment. Pound General overview There were no major economic releases in the UK on Thursday. Donald Trump failed to give investors details on his future economic policy. The traders' disappointment triggered a sharp dollar sell-off which helped the pound to reverse some ground. Later in the day we expect to hear some Fed's representatives including J.Yellen. Current situation The pound kept its upbeat tone unchanged vs. its US peer on Thursday. The Cable broke 1.2200 during the early hours and extended its bullishness afterwards. Buyers kept pushing the pair upwards and tested the resistance 1.2300 at the beginning of the European session. After touching the level the spot rolled back gathering steam for another leg higher. The short term upward momentum, however, seems to be fading as the Cable kept losing its upward strength during the late European hours. The price broke the 50-EMA upwards and pierced the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained bearish slope in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2300, the support comes in at 1.2200. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator left the neutral area and headed upwards. Trading recommendations Despite the recent rally the pair remained in a descending channel. If the spot fails to retake 1.2300 the pound may fall to 1.2200 on profit-taking. A close above 1.2300 may extend the current bullishness towards 1.2400. Yen General overview The yen strengthened after Trump's press-conference where the President-elect Donald Trump failed to provide investors with enough details regarding his future economic plans. Japanese Current Account came in better than expected supporting the national currency. Current situation The US dollar extended its sell off on Thursday. A fresh bout of selling pressure drove the USD/JPY pair below 115.00 at the open on Thursday. The US dollar kept losing its value afterwards and reached the 114.00 handle during European morning trade. Sellers failed to regain the level and continued struggling with the handle ahead of the NY session opening, According to the 4 hours chart the price continued staying below the moving averages which started turning downwards. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI remained within oversold readings favoring a new move downwards. Trading recommendations Inability to break below 114.00 may cause some profit-taking towards 115.00. If the pressure persists the next probable sellers target will become the level 113.00. USD/CAD General overview The US dollar retracement after the president-elect Donald Trump helped the Canadian dollar to extend its gains. Moreover, the CAD received additional support from the recovery in crude oil prices. We expect to see fresh figures over New Housing Price later the day. Current situation Bears had the ball and kept pushing the pair lower on Thursday. The US dollar had a negative start to the day. The major found fresh offers around 1.3190 at the daily open and extended its bearishness afterwards. The USD/CAD pair broke 1.3120 at the early European trades and kept trending towards 1.3050 which it touched in the mid-European session. The downward move lost its momentum after touching the handle and the spot stayed around it till the North American session opening. The currency pair continued developing well below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and the 200 EMAs downwards. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3120, the support comes in at 1.3050. The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. The RSI indicator stayed within the negative territory and moved downwards. Trading recommendations If the USD/CAD fails to regain 1.3050 buyers may reverse some of their losses and push the pair back to 1.3120. A break below 1.3050 will revive bearishness towards 1.2980. XAU/USD General overview Unclear Donald Trump's plans regarding his future economic/fiscal policies boosted gold prices towards 7-week highs. Current situation The gold held a bullish tone on Thursday. Traders pushed the metal higher and broke 1200 in the early European trades. The pair accelerated its rally after the hurdle break and advanced towards 1210 dollars per ounce afterwards. The gold spot hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA headed north crossing the 200-EMA upwards. The 200-EMA stayed flat while the 100-EMA pointed higher. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI indicator remained within undervalued territory favoring a new move higher. Trading recommendations Daily studies turned bullish and support further upside. A break above 1210 may open the way towards 1220. A downtrend will start as soon, as gold prices drop below the support level 1180 dollars per ounce. We do not exclude some profit-taking after the recent rally. Brent General overview Oil prices received support from the US dollar retracement. However, its growth is limited amid crude inventories growth. Current situation Oil prices maintained their bid tone on Thursday. The 55.50 hurdle stopped buyers for a while. The benchmark rolled back after testing the level in the Asian session and made another attempt to reclaim the level during the European hours. Buyers succeeded to break higher in the mid-European session. The benchmark extended its gains towards 56.50 ahead of the NA session opening. The 4 hours chart showed that the price tested the 50 and 100 EMAs in the mid-European trades. The 100 and the 200-EMAs pointed higher while the 50-EMA was neutral. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 56.50 dollars per barrel. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator moved upwards. Trading recommendations The bullish trend remained intact. A break above 56.50 risks a growth towards the resistance at 57.50 dollars per barrel. A daily close below 55.50 will increase risks of a downside rejection. DAX General overview European stocks moved lower following Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare sector decrease after Donald Trump’s press-conference where he took on drug prices. Current situation DAX gapped lower at the daily open and lost its strength further afterwards. Sellers pushed the price below 11600 during the early European hours on Thursday. However, all sellers’ attempts to extend their gains failed and the benchmark remained around 11600 ahead of the NY session opening. The price tested the 50 and the 100 EMAs in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages kept pointing higher in the same chart. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within the neutral area. Trading recommendations The bullish scenario prevailed on Thursday. Once we break above 11600, we think that the 11700 level will be next. SPX500 Current situation The index suffered a short lived downward movement on Thursday. Traders led the price lower and touched the level 2260 in early European trades. The benchmark retracement was triggered by some profit taking after Wednesday's rally. The price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs downwards and bounced off the 200-EMA in the 1 hour chat. The moving averages were neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market if the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. RSI was within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations We believe the index will remain neutral tending to move lower. The possible sellers' targets are the marks 2260 and 2254. A bounce off 2260 may extend the current bullishness towards 2280. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted January 15, 2017 Author Share Posted January 15, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 16.01.2017 Euro General overview The mixed US data supported the dollar on Friday. Retail Sales disappointed investors while Producer Price Index came in better than expected. The euro weakened despite upbeat Wholesale Price Index in Germany and Consumer Price Index in Spain. Current situation The euro made an attempt to return its upward bias on Friday. The pair failed to sustain the Asian pull back as sellers met a barrier at 1.0600 which rejected the spot upwards. The EUR/USD pair grew and touched 1.0650 in the mid-European session. The single European currency had reversed all its losses by the NY session opening. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA touched the 200-EMA. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept pointing higher while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600. The MACD histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI oscillator was within overvalued territory. Trading recommendations Inability to break above 1.0650 may return selling interest to markets. Once we break below 1.0600, we think that the 1.0550 and 1.0500 levels will be next. In order to recover EUR/USD needs to rise back and hold above 1.0650. Pound General overview The US dollar strengthened on the back of upbeat Producer Price Index. Meanwhile, the Cable had to retreat amid a stronger dollar and renewed concerns over a hard Brexit. Current situation The recent pull back lost its strength above 1.2100 in the early trades on Friday. The pound ran through fresh bids post London’s opening and sharply turned around. Buyers led the price upwards and touched the level 1.2200 in the mid-European session. After touching the level the upward momentum faded, the pound sharply dropped and extended its weakness to 1.2118. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving average limited its growth acting as a solid resistance. All moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2200, the support comes in at 1.2100. MACD traded to the downside. RSI oscillator remained within the neutral area. Trading recommendations The GBPUSD pair could gain momentum, if it recovers above the 1.2200 area. A break above the hurdle will maintain bulls in the driver's seat towards the level 1.2300. Conversely, a move below 1.2100 will signal the return of sellers who may drag the price to 1.2000. Yen General overview The US dollar tried to reverse its recent losses vs. the yen. Meanwhile, markets ignored Chinese data: Trade Balance, Exports and Imports. Current situation The US dollar temporally retuned to its upward trajectory after the Asian decline on Friday. Buyers managed to maintain their bid tone and broke 115.00 ahead of the NY session opening. However, the upmove soon lost momentum and the USD/JPY pair returned below 115.00 in the NA session. Traders were driving the price towards 114.00 the second part of the North American session. The pair bounced off the 100-EMA and tested the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages headed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI remained within oversold readings close to the neutral territory. Trading recommendations The price maintained its bearish tone in the 4 hours chart. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the levels 114.00 and 113.00 unless buyers manage to consolidate above 116.00. AUD/USD General overview The US dollar grew vs. its Australian peer on the back of the US data when upbeat Producer Price Index overwhelmed negative Retail Sales report. Current situation The dollar retracement assisted to the Aussie recovery in the early trades on Friday. After posting the weekly high at 0.7516 the pair slightly rolled back and returned to the nearest hurdle at 0.7500 on Thursday. The spot spent the night and morning sessions on Friday around the level struggling to move higher. A fresh selling interest drove prices to 0.7450 in the NY session. Sellers lost their strength after testing the level 0.7450 which rejected the spot to 0.7500. According to the 4 hours chart the price hovered above the moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed higher while the 200-EMA was flat. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7500, the support comes in at 0.7450. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator was within the positive territory. Trading recommendations We believe that after a close above the resistance at 0.7500 the spot AUD/USD may extend its growth to 0.7550. On the other hand, a sharp breakout below 0.7450 could spark a further incline towards 0.7400 in the coming sessions. XAU/USD General overview Gold maintained its bid tone on Friday as the uncertainties surrounding Trump’s future policies supported the demand for the precious metal. Current situation The gold extended its upward momentum on Friday. A bout of fresh buying interest pushed the spot upwards. The price pushed away from 1190 at the beginning of the European session and reached 1200 dollars per ounce. The 1 hour chart showed that the price tested the 50-EMA. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1200, the support stands at 1190 dollars per ounce. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within positive territory. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay bullish for now. Our next short-term objective for the pair is 1200, after which we may see the pair extending its rise towards the 1210. However, gold is overbought and needs some technical correction. We believe the price may decline to 1180 on profit-taking. Brent General overview Oil prices were unmoved on Friday as investors kept wondering whether the OPEC and non-OPEC members will abide the recent output cut agreement reached in 2016. Current situation After reaching 56.50 dollars per barrel Brent rolled back to 55.50. The benchmark started Friday in a consolidation. Brent extended its sideways trades during the European session. The “black gold” was range-bound-to lower during the day. The price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 50 and the 100-EMA were neutral while the 200-EMA headed higher. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI left the positive area and headed downwards. Trading recommendations The bearish sentiment remained intact on Friday. A move below 55.50 dollars per barrel suggests further weakness of the oil prices. After breaking 54.50 the level 53.50 will come to the radar. DAX General overview European markets sentiment improved on Friday after the recent remarks by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Financial stocks and automobile sector were broadly higher while mining stocks moved lower. Current situation The index traded in its familiar range on Friday. The price was trading between 11600 and 11500 levels. Traders were unable to choose direction and were holding the benchmark in the range during the day. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the 4 hours timeframe. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI remained within the neutral area. Trading recommendations The price is unable to climb above 11600. Sellers might force DAX to resume its downward trajectory towards 11500. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street traded higher on Friday amid the upbeat U.S. quarterly reports. Current situation The index was flat the first part of the day. The benchmark hovered above 5020 handle in a narrow range of 50 pips or less. NASDAQ turned higher in the North American session. The price rallied to 5060 and tested the level post-NY session opening. The index broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs upwards in the 1 hour chat. The benchmark continued developing well above its moving averages afterwards. All moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance is at 5060, the support comes in at 5020. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within positive territory. Trading recommendations If bears return control the next intraday supports and probable bearish target is 5020. Conversely, a daily close above 5060 will open the way towards 5080. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted January 16, 2017 Author Share Posted January 16, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 17.01.2017 Euro General overview The euro got a minor support after the EU's trade Balance. Today we expect to see Economic Sentiment for January from ZEW which is expected to show upbeat figures. Current situation The euro weakened on Monday. After the gap downwards the pair kept moving in the red. Sellers broke the level 1.0600 ahead of the European opening. After breaking the level sellers extended their gains pushing the spot towards 1.0550. However, EUR/USD's momentum remained positive despite the ongoing decline. The euro stayed above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs headed north while the 200-EMA remained flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator left the overvalued territory and moved south. Trading recommendations Sellers are likely to extend their gains in the short-term. The first sellers’ target is 1.0550. A close below the handle will generate fresh selling pressure towards 1.0500. Pound General overview The Pound has hit its lowest level for more than three months on Monday. The pound fell ahead of Theresa May’s speech tomorrow. Investors expect to hear from the PM how the UK's government plans to leave the EU. Current situation The pound gapped lower at the daily open on Monday. The price jumped from 1.2184 to 1.1197, however, it was able to reverse a minor portion of its losses afterwards. Buyers pushed the Cable higher and almost reached 1.2100 hurdle at the beginning of the European trades. Bulls failed to retake the level and stepped back. The sterling dropped below the moving averaged and stayed there in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages headed lower in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2100, the support comes in at 1.2000. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI stayed within the negative area. Trading recommendations A bearish tone prevails in the 4 hours chart. The GBP/USD pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 1.2000. After the level break sellers may aim at 1.1900. Yen Current situation The US dollar gapped lower at the weekly open and extended its losses afterwards. Sellers tested the level 114.00 and immediately bounced off the handle. The pair spent the European trades above 114.00 staying in a narrow range. According to the 4 hours chart the price continued developing well below the moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 50 and the 200-EMAs kept heading lower while the 200-EMA was flat. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI remained within oversold readings. Trading recommendations USD/JPY is having difficulties to go any lower. All eyes are right now at the resistance level 115.00. A cut through here will turn attention to the 116.00 level. NZD/USD Current situation The kiwi returned to the negative territory on Monday. The New Zealand dollar gapped lower at the daily open. However, buyers managed to erase all losses and even showed fresh gains moving the price to 0.7150. After touching the resistance bulls lost their upward momentum and had to retreat. Sellers seized control and pushed the spot below 0.7100. After breaking the handle the kiwi continued losing its value heading towards 0.7050. The price hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs headed upwards while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7150, the support comes in at 0.7050. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator headed downwards. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay bearish for now. We think that the NZD/USD will reach the 0.7050 level first. The spot may extend its decline afterwards aiming at 0.7000. XAU/USD Current situation Gold extended its vertical rise on Monday. Buyers were stronger and moved the price higher. They broke the resistance 1200 dollars per ounce and almost reached 1210. The pair lost its strength a few pips below the level and rolled back to 1200 in the European session. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed higher while the 200-EMA was flat. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI remained within overvalued readings. Trading recommendations A close below the 1200 level would generate negative signal and risk further easing. We expect a further advance towards 1190 dollars per ounce afterwards. Brent Current situation Brent presented a modest bearish tone on Monday. After a brief consolidation during the Asian hours bears seized the ball and pushed the price below 55.50 dollars per barrel in the European session. After breaking the level sellers kept moving oil prices towards 54.50. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 50 and 100 EMAs during the European hours. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 200 and the 100-EMAs headed higher while the 50-EMA was flat. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI was within the neutral area. Trading recommendations The bearish scenario prevailed on Monday. Sellers may extend their bearishness if they fixate below 55.50 dollars per barrel. After a daily close below the level we could see Brent extending down to the 53.50 region during the next days. DAX Current situation DAX gapped lower at the daily open on Monday. The index humped from 11606 to 11562 and traded mixed afterwards. The benchmark remained in a familiar range tending to move lower. The price broke the 200-EMA in the 1 hour chart in the European session. The 200-EMA headed higher while the 50 and the 100-EMA were flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI was within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations We expect a downtrend movement after the price break 11500. The next probable bearish target is 11400. S&P500 Current situation The index edged lower on Monday. Sellers pushed the price from 2273 to 2264 during the first half of the day. The price tested the 50 EMA in the 4 hours chat. The 50 and the 200-EMAs pointed higher while the 200-EMA was flat in the same chart. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI left the undervalued readings and entered the neutral area. Trading recommendations We believe that the downtrend will start as soon, as the price drops below the support level 2260. The benchmark may slow down to the 2240 area afterwards. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted January 17, 2017 Author Share Posted January 17, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 18.01.2017 Euro General overview Economic Sentiment in Germany for January disappointed investors. The market focused on Consumer Price Index in Germany and the EU. Current situation We believe that this is essentially a “buy only” market at the moment. The pair remained in a near term upward channel on Tuesday. Bulls kept control and pushed the price higher in the Asian session. The euro rallied and broke 1.0650 in the mid-Asian session. The single European currency extended its gains afterwards and reached 1.0700 in the mid European session. According to the 1 hour chart the price bounced off the 100-EMA and crossed the 50-EMA upwards. The price stayed above the moving averages which maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator left the neutral area and returned to the positive territory. Trading recommendations The technical picture presents a bullish tone. The EURUSD pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate resistance near 1.0700. After the hurdle break the next level to focus on is 1.0750. We also do not exclude a roll back on profit taking after Tuesday’s rally. Sellers may erase some losses if manage to lead the spot below 1.0650, en route to 1.0600. Pound General overview All eyes are on Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings where we expect green figures. Current situation Bulls were gradually gaining more overall control on Tuesday. A sharp short-term rally helped the Cable to close Monday's gap. The pound broke 1.2100 in the Asian session and touched 1.2200 ahead of the European session opening. The sterling momentum began to fade after testing the level. The price rolled back, but remained around 1.2200. The price grew and tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The spot continued developing well below its moving averages which kept heading lower in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2200, the support comes in at 1.2100. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI remained within the neutral area. Trading recommendations We may see renewed bullish pressure if the GBP/USD pair closes above 1.2200. A daily close above 1.2200 would risk a further rise of the pair towards 1.2300. If the hurdle holds the spot may return to red and refresh lows at 1.2000. Yen General overview The dollar edged lower on expectations of Trump’s inauguration in Friday. Moreover, Industrial Production in Japan came in a line with expectations thus supporting the national currency. Current situation The USD/JPY pair extended its bearishness on Tuesday. The US dollar continued to trade in negative ground. Sellers broke below 114.00 during the early Asian hours. The spot kept losing its value afterwards and reached 113.00 in the mid-European session. Bears managed to reclaim the level ahead of the NY session opening. The price remained below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bearish slope while the 200-EMA remained neutral. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00. The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. The RSI stayed within oversold readings and headed south. Trading recommendations A bearish tone prevailed in the 4 hours chart. To trigger additional downward momentum towards 112.00 the price needs to consolidate below the level 113.00. A failure to retake 113.00 may cause some profit-taking. Buyers may return the price to 114.00. USD/CAD General overview The broad base dollar retracement helped the CAD to strengthen. Investors’ attention now turns to the BOC Rate Statement and Interest Rate Decision. Current situation The USD/CAD recovery stalled at 1.3190. The spot came across sellers’ pressure around the level and sharply dropped in the Asian session on Tuesday. The price broke 1.3120 and tested 1.3050 in the European trade. The 4 hours chart showed that the price bounced off the 50-EMA downwards. The price continued developing well below its moving averages afterwards. The moving averages kept heading lower in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3120, the support comes in at 1.3050. The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. The RSI indicator left the neutral area and stayed within oversold territory. Trading recommendations The bearish trend remained intact. We suppose the USD/CAD pair will break the 1.0350 level first. Having overcome the first target the spot might advance towards 1.2980. XAU/USD General overview Gold strengthened amid risk-off sentiments ahead of Theresa May's speech which was expected to be hard. Current situation Gold had another positive day on Tuesday. The XAU/USD pair jumped to a fresh weekly high in the Asian session. Buyers moved the price upwards and broke 1210 dollars per ounce in the early European trades. Having broken the level the gold spot extended its gains and approached the 1220 hurdle where the buying impetus faded. The price hovered above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA remained flat. The resistance exists at 1220, the support stands at 1210 dollars per ounce. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within positive territory. Trading recommendations Sustained break above 1220 region is seen as minimum requirement needed to confirm bullish resumption. Otherwise sellers may lead prices towards 1210 and 1200 dollars per ounce. Brent General overview Brent strengthened on hopes that OPEC and non-OPEC members will keep to their production cut deal. Current situation Bulls fought back control and pushed the price higher on Tuesday. The benchmark jumped to 56.50 ahead of the European session opening. The upmove lost its legs after the level test. The price bounced off the 50-EMA and crossed the 100-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The benchmark stayed above its moving averages afterwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were flat while the 200-EMA pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI left the neutral area and moved upwards. Trading recommendations The bullish scenario prevailed on Tuesday. If the buying interest remains intact we don’t rule out further extension of the benchmark to 57.50 and 58.50 dollars per barrel. DAX General overview European stocks moved lower following the mining and automobile sectors decline. Current situation DAX turned lower on Tuesday. The index gapped downwards at the daily open and extended its bearishness afterwards. Sellers pushed the price below 11500 during the Asian trades and headed towards 11400 in the European session. However, a fresh buying interest around the handle helped DAX reverse daily losses and returned to opening prices. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards and tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages pointed higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11500, the support stands at 11400. MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI left the neutral territory and moved downwards. Trading recommendations In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture favors a downward extension. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 11400. The next bearish target is 11300. NASDAQ General overview The US stocks turned red at the NY session opening following the hard Theresa May's remarks regarding Brexit. The markets digested as well and Morgan Stanley corporate earnings report. Current situation The index lost its upward momentum on Tuesday. NASDAQ met a barrier at 5060 and had to retreat. The benchmark gave up its gains and edged lower during the Asian hours. Bears kept pushing the price lower heading towards 5020 in the European session. However, sellers met buyers; resistance around the handle and had to retreat. The index turned around and reversed a minor portion of its losses. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards and tested the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chat. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 5060, the support comes in at 5020. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overvalued territory and entered the neutral one. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay bearish for now. A break below 5020 may suggest further weakness of the benchmark. A break through here will turn attention to the 4980 level. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 19.01.2017 Euro General overview The dollar erased some of its losses vs. the euro ahead of J. Yellen’s speech on Wednesday. Moreover, the greenback got support from US consumer price index which coincided with investors’ expectations. The ECB will announce its interest rate decision later the day. Current situation The bullish market structure remained in place on Wednesday. The euro completed an upside impulse and retreated from the weekly high at 1.0716. The current rebound should be considered corrective amid profit-taking after the recent rally. The pair returned below 1.0700 in the early trades on Wednesday and stayed around the level during the European trades. The price continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator remained within overvalued readings. Trading recommendations The EUR/USD pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 1.0650. When we break the level the support 1.0600 comes back into play. However, we believe the euro is to remain supported in the short-term as long as 1.0500 is intact. Pound General overview Concerns regarding hard Brexit keep weighing on the cable. Despite the positive labor market data (Unemployment Rate remained unchanged, Claimant Count Change on the contrary increased) the pound weakened on Wednesday. Current situation The pound opened red against the dollar on Wednesday. The cable bounced off the border of the overbought zone and headed lower in the Asian session. Sellers broke the 1.2400 level in the early trades and tested 1.2300 in the European session. However, the 1.2300 handle stopped sellers' advance. After touching the level the price rolled back and hovered above the level ahead of the NY opening. The spot bounced off the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages kept heading lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI remained within the overbought area. Trading recommendations A bearish tone prevailed in the 4 hours chart. We recommend going short with the first target – 1.2200. After consolidation below the first target the GBP/USD may advance to the 1.2100 level. Yen General overview The US dollar took a breath reaching the 7-week lows while investors focused on J.Yellen’s speech. Current situation The USD/JPY remained within a downtrend channel on Wednesday. The USD/JPY pair found a solid support at 112.50. The mark rejected the spot upwards giving the US dollar a chance to reverse a minor portion of its losses. After breaking 113.00 in the Asian session the recovery stalled above the level during the European hours. The 4 hours chart showed that the price continued developing well below the moving averages. The 100 EMA crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading lower while the 200-EMA remained flat. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00. MACD traded to the downside. The RSI left the oversold readings and moved higher. Trading recommendations We expect the USD/JPY pair to extend its bullishness in the short-term. Should the US dollar advance beyond the 114.00 level, the spot may extend its rally up to 114.50. AUD/USD General overview The AUD maintained its upbeat tone vs. the US dollar getting support from oil prices dynamics. The upcoming labor market data may support the Australian dollar as well. Current situation The tone is still positive in the market. The AUD/USD pair stayed around 2-week highs flirting with the 0.7550 level. The price was confined within a tight trading range around the level tending to move lower. The spot hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA was flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7550, the support comes in at 0.7500. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI consolidated within overvalued territory. Trading recommendations We expect a downward correction in the short-term. If we see a close below 0.7550 we will sell the spot. The potential bearish target is the 0.7500 handle. XAU/USD General overview Gold slowed down its rally after reaching 8-week highs amid the US dollar recovery and risk-on sentiment. All eyes were on inflation data and Yellen's speech on Wednesday. Current situation Gold prices remained in an ascending channel on Wednesday. After reaching the 4-weeks peaks on Tuesday the metal slightly retreated and approached the lower limit of its upward structure on Wednesday. The XAU/USD pair slightly declined in the Asian session and found some support at 1210 dollars per ounce. Sellers struggled hard to break below the level during the European hours. According to the 1 hour chart the price tested the bullish 50-EMA. The price stayed above its moving averages which maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1220, the support stands at 1210 dollars per ounce. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within overvalued readings. Trading recommendations A clear break below 1210 would indicate that the bearish phase has been resumed. The 1200 handle seems to be the next probable bearish target. Anyway the gold spot is still strong enough to move higher. A break above 1220 risks the 1230 hurdle. Brent General overview Brent declined despite the increased forecast from OPEC for demand for oil in 2017. Oil prices edged lower after OPEC raised its U.S. output forecast for 2017. Current situation Sellers took control of the flows on Wednesday. The last upward impetus stalled just above 56.50 dollars per barrel. The benchmark faced a downward rejection and dropped to 55.50 in the NY session on Tuesday. Sellers continued moving the price lower on Wednesday. Bears broke 55.50 dollars per barrel at the European session opening and headed south afterwards. The benchmark tested 54.50 in the mid-European session. The price broke all moving averages downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA remained neutral while the 50-EMA pointed lower. The 200-EMA kept heading higher in the same chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI left the neutral area and headed downwards. Trading recommendations As we see the market switched its tone to bearish. If the pressure persists sellers will remain in the driver’s seat. After a close below 54.50 we could see the benchmark extending its decline to 53.50 dollars per barrel. DAX General overview European stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as traders are looking for the ECB meeting results on Thursday. Current situation The index gapped higher at the daily open and reached 11600 after the jump. The benchmark failed to extend its gains and retreated immediately after the level test. Sellers kept moving DAX downwards during the European hours. The 4 hours chart showed that the price tested the 50-EMA. The benchmark remained between the 50 and the 100-EMAs during the European session. The moving averages kept heading higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI was within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations A move below 11500 would indicate that immediate upward pressure eased. If the DAX index fixates below the current support it may reach the 11400 area in the short term. S&P500 General overview Wall Street opened in green as investors digested bank earnings reports awaiting for Janet Yellen's speech later the day. Current situation The index opened the day in green. The benchmark was able to grow and posted a daily high at 2268. S&P500 gave up its recent gains afterwards and eased towards 2260 in the European session. The price bounced off the 100-EMA and tested the-50 EMA in the 4 hours chat. The benchmark was between the 50 and the 100-EMAs during the European trades. The 50 and 100 EMAs were flat while the 200-EMAs kept heading higher in the same chart. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI stayed within the neutral area. Trading recommendations If sellers keep control a close below 2260 might force the price to resume its downward trajectory towards the 2240 area. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 20.01.2017 Euro General overview The ECB left its rates unchanged: the deposit rate remained at -0.4% and the interest one at 0.0%. Moreover, the US dollar strengthened amid upbeat data. The Initial Jobless Claims came in green. Housing Starts showed strong figures as well. Investors’ attention now turns to Trump's inauguration which will take place on Friday. Current situation The downward trajectory lost its legs just below 1.0650 when sellers met a solid barrier which rejected the pair upwards. The euro reversed majority of its losses on Thursday. The spot broke 1.0650 ahead of the European session opening and headed towards 1.0700. However, the upward impetus soon faded, the recovery stalled above 1.0650. A fresh selling interest dragged the pair downwards. The spot broke 1.0650 and tested 1.0600 at the US session opening. The EUR/USD pair presented a neutral-to-bullish stance during the European hours. The 4 hours chart showed that the price stayed above the moving averages. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed higher while the 200-EMA remained flat in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI was within neutral territory. Trading recommendations We became bearish regarding the pair now. A break below 1.0650 would increase a negative signal and risk further easing of the EURUSD pair towards 1.0600, en route to 1.0550. Pound General overview Housing Price Balance foe December came in worse than expecting slowing down the pound recovery on Thursday. The pound weakened further vs. the US dollar after the upbeat US data. We expect a number of UK's Retail Sales releases today which are expected with positive figures. Current situation The pound strengthened further on Thursday, sending the GBP/USD to its recent highs at 1.2400. The cable was able to reverse some of its losses amid broad dollar's weakness. Having found a local bottom at 1.2250 the spot reversed its direction and rallied upwards breaking 1.2300 in the European session. After passing the level the pair continued moving north targeting at 1.2400. Buying interest faded in the North American session. The price faced the downward rejection and turned lower. The price continued developing well between the 200 and the 100-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were neutral while the 200-EMA kept heading lower in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300. MACD grew which is a buy signal. RSI left the neutral area and entered overvalued territory. Trading recommendations The pound remained under the risk of falling deeper down. The 1.2400 hurdle coupled with the 200-EMA limited the pound further advance. A downtrend will start as soon, as the spot drops below the support level 1.2300. Further easing to 1.2200 is not ruled out. A break above 1.2400 will advance the spot to 1.2450. Yen General overview J. Yellen’s remarks coupled with strong data boosted the US dollar demand. The strong labor market data and Housing Starts release supported the greenback on Friday. All eyes are on Trump's inauguration. Current situation The pair remained in a short-term downward channel staying around its upper limit on Thursday. Buyers lost their momentum after touching 115.00. The US dollar was in a consolidation phase during the Asian and European sessions. Traders struggled with the hurdle to resume their advance. The level, however, turned out to be a solid obstacle to break. The US dollar got under selling pressure on any up-move towards the level. A fresh bout of buying interest supported the U.S. dollar. The major attacked the 115.00 hurdle with fresh vigour during the NY hours. The price tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bearish slope while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI was within overvalued readings close to the neutral territory. Trading recommendations We believe that a break through 115.00 will put on hold bears’ plans. The potential buyers’ target is 116.00. NZD/USD General overview New Zealand Business PMI posted positive figures while Building Permits came in red. Moreover, the kiwi as a commodity currency was supported by oil prices positive dynamics. The recent US data weighed on the NZD as well. Current situation The Asian recovery lost its steam after testing the level 0.7200. The hurdle appeared to be a tough nut to crack. After touching the level the NZD rolled back in the Asian session and remained below the resistance during the European hours. According to the 4 hours chart the spot hovered above its moving averages on Thursday. The 50 and 100-EMAs kept pointing higher while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned chart. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7200, the support comes in at 0.7150. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI left the neutral area and headed north. Trading recommendations Inability to retake 0.7200 may reverse the market. A sharp breakout below 0.7150 could spark a further easing towards 0.7100 in the coming days. XAU/USD General overview The broad US dollar strengthening weighed on the precious metal. Besides a strong dollar gold prices softened amid the upbeat US data and the ECB decision to keep its rates unchanged. Current situation Gold prices remained under pressure on Thursday amid a strong dollar. The pair bounced off the 1200 psychological mark and remained around the handle during the day. The metal continued developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA was flat in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI stayed within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay bearish for now. We would be selling gold only if the price drops below 1200. A firm break below 1200 handle could trigger fresh weakness for attack at 1190 dollars per ounce. Brent General overview The US oil inventory draw gave a temporally support for oil prices. The market will be focused on Oil Rig Count in the coming sessions. Current situation Oil prices remained in red figures after Wednesday's bearish acceleration. Brent a little changed on the day and remained prone to more weakness on Thursday. The benchmark stayed neutral around 54.50 dollars per barrel flirting with the level during the European session. Oil price stayed below the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 100-EMA was flat while the 50-EMA headed lower, the 200-EMA maintained its bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance lies at 54.50, the support comes in at 53.50 dollars per barrel. MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI indicator was within the oversold readings. Trading recommendations Near-term technical studies are in full bearish setup. A daily close below 53.50 dollars per barrel will pave way for further near-term downslide towards the very important 50.00 psychological mark. DAX General overview European bourses edged higher on Thursday after the ECB's decision to leave the rates unchanged. Meanwhile, mining stocks traded mixed while the financial sector shares moved broadly higher. Investors kept digesting Janet Yellen's comments. According to Yellen the Fed may raise the rates quickly this year. Current situation The index gapped higher at the daily open. However, the upmove lacked momentum immediately after the jump. The price softened filling the gap in the European session. Sellers broke 11600 and tried to push the price lower during the day. According to the 4 hours chart the index broke the 50-EMA upwards. The benchmark continued developing well above the moving averages afterwards. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI stayed within the neutral territory close to the overvalued territory. Trading recommendations In order to recover some strength, DAX30 needs to rise above 11600. However, as the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 11500. NASDAQ General overview The US stocks opened higher amid the U.S strong data. Investors focused on key companies (IBM and American Express) earnings reports which will report after the bell. However, traders preferred wait and see mode ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration on Friday. Current situation The index traded in a tight range on Thursday. The price was sandwiched between 5060 and 5040 during the day. The benchmark started the day at the open limit of the band and moved down to its lower limit during the course of the European trades. The price stayed above the moving averages in the 1 hour chat. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 50-EMA was flat while the 100 and the 200-EMAs kept heading higher in the same chart. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260. Trading recommendations The market seems fairly balanced. The index feels comfortably in the current range. A clear break of either side is needed to signal fresh direction. Meanwhile we prefer to stay out of trades until we get a clear picture. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 23.01.2017 Euro General overview The dollar reversed some of its losses after hawkish J.Yellen's remarks. The euro ignored Germany PPI which came in a line with expectations. Markets focused on Trump's inauguration on Friday expecting to hear fresh guidelines from a new President. Traders wait for Draghi's speech and Germany Manufacturing PMI on Monday. Current situation Despite technical readings the pair held to its recent bullish tone on Friday. The EUR/USD pair remained in a near-term ascending channel. The price reached its upper boundary overnight and bounced off it at the beginning of the European trades. The spot pushed away from 1.0700 and reached 1.0650 in the mid-European session. The price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs downwards and tested the 200-EMA in the 1 hour chart during the European hours. The 100 and the 200-EMAs kept heading higher while the 50-EMA headed downwards in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI was within neutral territory favoring a new move lower. Trading recommendations A break below 1.0650 may trigger another leg lower. A daily close below 1.0600 handle would open 1.0550. However, a lower limit of an upward channel is a solid obstacle which may reject the pair once again. If the level holds the EUR/USD pair will refresh to the current highs at 1.0720. Pound General overview The pound lost its impetus amid worse than expected Retail Sales. Despite the negative data the sterling maintained its upbeat tone on Friday`. Current situation The Asian recovery stalled a few pips below 1.2400. After posting a daily high at 1.2374 the spot turned around and headed towards 1.2300. Sellers broke the level in the mid-European session and led the pair towards 1.2250. However, a revived buying interest stopped sellers' advance and returned the cable to 1.2300 ahead of the NY opening. The spot failed to retake the 200-EMA in the Asian session and bounced off the moving afterwards. GBP/USD pair headed towards neutral 100-EMA in the European session. The moving averages were mixed: the 100-EMA was neutral, the 200-EMA kept heading lower while the 50-EMA pointed higher in the 4 hours chart. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ growing strength. RSI left the overvalued readings and headed south. Trading recommendations A break below 1.2300 may suggests further weakness of the GBPUSD pair. The price might extend the downtrend towards the 1.2200. Yen General overview The dollar weakened after J.Yellen's hawkish speech. However, the greenback reverted some losses on Friday on expectations of D.Trump's speech after his inauguration. Current situation The USD/JPY pair extended its recovery on Friday. The US dollar was struggling with the 115.00 hurdle during the Asian session. Bulls broke the level ahead of the European session opening. However, the spot lost its upward impetus soon and returned to 115.00. According to the 4 hours chart the price bounced off the 50-EMA in the Asian session. The spot was between the 100 and the 50 EMAs during the European hours. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed lower while the 200-EMA remained flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 116.00, the support comes in at 115.00. MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI stayed within overvalued readings. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remained bullish, for a rise towards 116.00 resistance area. After the hurdle break a further extension towards 117.00 could be observed further. If the level 115.00 fails to support bulls the USD/JPY pair may lost its ground again returning to a downside. USD/CAD General overview The Canadian regulator disappointed investors with Retail Sales and Consumer Price index reports. Both indices came in worse than expected. However this data had little effect on the CAD which was under pressure amid broad base the US dollar strength. Current situation The pair held a bullish tone on Friday. Strong bullish sentiment was driving the pair towards 1.3330 in the first part of the day. Buyers managed to break the level in the mid-European session and continued moving upwards afterwards. The pair almost reached 1.3400 when the US dollar lost its impetus and retreated to 1.3330 in the NY session. The price broke all moving averages upwards and stayed above them during the day. The 50-EMA pointed higher, the 100-EMA headed lower while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3400, the support comes in at 1.3330. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. The RSI stayed within the overvalued readings favoring a new move higher. Trading recommendations The bullish trend remained intact. A close above 1.3330 may trigger gains towards 1.3400. USD/CAD may extend its rally after a solid close above 1.3400. Inability to break above 1.3400 may bring some negative sentiment to markets. If sellers seize control they will push the price to 1.3190. XAU/USD General overview Risk aversion in the first part of the week helped the metal to strengthen. However, the risk-on mood returned on Friday and the US dollar managed to reverse a minor part of its losses. Current situation The Asian recovery lost its momentum at 1210 dollars per ounce. The level rejected the XAU/USD pair sending it towards 1200 during the European early hours. The precious metal declined and tested the 1200 handle in the mid-European session. Sellers failed to reclaim the level and retreated. The precious metal remained around the level till the end of the trades. The 1 hour chart showed that the price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs downwards during the Asian trades and tested the 200-EMA ahead of the NY session opening. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards in the same chart. The 100 and the 200-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 50-EMA pointed lower. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the neutral territory and headed downwards. Trading recommendations A clear break below the 1200 support will indicate that the upward movement had completed. The following downward movement could bring price back to 1190 area, en route to 1180 dollars per ounce. Brent General overview The upbeat Q4 GDP in China supported the demand for oil on Friday. Moreover, Brent grew amid renewed hopes of tighter oil market in 2017. However, oil growth may be limited amid concerns regarding EIA crude inventory report. An inventory increase may weigh on the price and cut its recent gains. Current situation Brent extended its consolidative pattern in the Asian session on Friday. A fresh buying interest emerged ahead of the European session opening. The benchmark edged higher and tested the level 54.50 dollars per barrel during European morning trade. Oil prices extended their gains afterwards and broke the mentioned level in the mid-European session. Buyers did not stop and pushed the price higher testing 55.50 in the NY session. The price tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart in the European session. The price continued developing well below the moving averages. The 50 and the 200-EMAs were flat while the 100-EMA headed lower in the mentioned timeframe chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel. MACD traded to the upside. The RSI left the oversold readings and headed north. Trading recommendations The bullish scenario prevailed on Friday. We will place buy orders if the benchmark does a breakout at the resistance level of 55.50. The next potential buyers’ target is 56.50 dollars per barrel. DAX General overview European stocks edged higher on Friday awaiting for D.Trump’s inauguration. Financial stocks moved higher while mining ones added to losses on Friday. Current situation The index gapped higher at the daily open on Friday. Traders broke 11600 right after the gap and pushed the benchmark higher afterwards. The benchmark stayed above the moving averages which kept heading higher in the 4 hours timeframe. The resistance exists at 11700, the support stands at 11600. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI remained within the neutral area favoring a new move higher. Trading recommendations A bullish tone prevailed on Friday. After close above the 11600 level the 11700 hurdle could become an attractive price for investors. S&P500 General overview The US stocks traded higher at the US session opening awaiting for Donald Trump's message in his inaugural speech. Current situation The index opened green on Friday. Traders pushed the benchmark higher heading towards the mark 2270. According to the 4 hours chart the price broke the 100-EMA upwards and tested the 50-EMA. The benchmark stayed above the 200 and the 100-EMAs during day. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were flat while the 200-EMA kept heading higher in the same chart. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI indicator entered the neutral area. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay bullish for now. The short term outlook will be bullish as long as the price holds above 2260 level. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 24.01.2017 Euro General overview The calendar remained thin and uneventful on Monday. The pair was influenced by broad base dollar retracement. Donald Trump's inaugural speech disappointed investors with absence of clear comments regarding taxes or investment measures. The market will be focused on PMI Composite and Manufacturing PMI from Markit in Germany on Tuesday. Current situation The common European currency maintained its bid tone for the 3rd consecutive session on Monday. The euro reached the level 1.0750 in the early trades which stopped its further advance. After touching the level the pair rolled back maintaining its bullish stance during the European hours. The spot extended its losses ahead of NY session opening. The 1 hour chart showed that the price continued developing well above its moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The moving averages pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI stayed within the overvalued readings favoring a new move higher. Trading recommendations A bullish tone prevails in the 4 hours chart. A break above 1.0750 may suggest further growth of the EURUSD pair towards 1.0800. In case of a bounce from 1.0750, the currency pair would fall as low as 1.0650. Pound General overview The pound strengthened amid the US dollar weakness. The dollar softened after D.Trump’s inauguration speech which lacked any hints of his future program. Current situation The pound traded in the green zone on Monday extending its Friday's gains. The cable left the seven-week descending channel on Friday. The spot broke the level 1.2400 in the early Asian trades and advanced north during the European trades on Monday. The upward trajectory stopped a few pips below 1.2500 where a fresh bout of selling interest weighed on the spot. The price broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs upwards and stayed above them in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA pointed lower. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI remained in the overvalued readings and headed higher. Trading recommendations We expect GBPUSD pair to trade bullish for now. Once the GBP/USD pair breaks above 1.2500, we think that the 1.2550 level will be next. Yen General overview The US dollar edged lower vs. the yen on Monday amid growing concerns that Trump’s first steps as the US President may bring instability in the Asian region causing «economical wars» with leading Asian economics. Current situation The USD/JPY pair stayed in the red zone on Monday. The spot found a solid support around 113.00 in the Asian session and recovered some ground during the European hours. After testing the 113.00 handle the price reversed its direction and grew up to 114.00 where it slowed down its recovery. A fresh selling interest emerged ahead of the NA session opening sending the pair to 113.00. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards in the Asian session in the 4 hours chart. The spot stayed below its moving averages on Monday. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading lower while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00. MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI consolidated within oversold readings close to the neutral area. Trading recommendations Technical studies are in favour of the negative outcome. The USD/JPY pair risks falling back to 113.00 which is expected to limit its losses. AUD/USD General overview Lack of clarity over Donald Trump's plans for economic stimulus weakened the US dollar. Moreover, the upbeat sentiment around commodities, especially Copper, boosted demand for AUD on Monday. Current situation The AUD/USD pair stayed in the near-term upward channel trading around its recent highs on Monday. The spot extended its buying momentum in the early trades. The Aussie broke the level 0.7550 in the Asian session and posted the daily high at 0.7575. The spot rolled back afterwards and returned to 0.7500 region. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards and tested the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages were all pointing higher in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7600, the support comes in at 0.7550. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI stayed within the overvalued readings close to the neutral area. Trading recommendations In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture favors an upward extension. The 0.7600 hurdle seems the first probable bullish target. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 0.7650 could be observed further. XAU/USD General overview Traders have not changed their opinion preserving upbeat tone on Monday. The demand for the metal grew amid uncertainty around Trump's proposed fiscal policy measures. A weak sentiment surrounding equity markets lent some support to the precious metal as well. Current situation Gold turned bearish on Monday. The metal eased off from its daily high as traders decided to book some profits after the recent rally. The XAU/USD pair pushed away from 1220 dollars per ounce in the Asian session and reached 1210 in the mid-European one. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs kept heading higher in the 4 hours chart. The resistance exists at 1220, the support stands at 1210 dollars per ounce. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI oscillator moved downwards. Trading recommendations The precious metal is likely to extend its bearishness. The price eyes strong support at 1200 loss of which would trigger further weakness towards 1190 dollars per ounce. To revive its buying momentum the metal needs to retake 1220. Brent General overview Oil prices moved lower on Monday amid a strong recovery in U.S. oil drilling activity. The prospects of rising U.S. production overwhelmed the news that OPEC members began lowering their oil output. Current situation The bearish scenario prevailed on Monday. After an Asian flat the price moved lower during the European yearly hours. The benchmark pushed away from 55.50 and headed towards 54.50 dollars per barrel. Brent tested 50 and 200 EMAs downwards in the 4 hours chart during the European hours. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs stayed neutral during the day. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator left the overvalued readings and headed south. Trading recommendations If a downward pressure persists there is a chance of breaking 54.50 dollars per barrel. A cut here will open the road towards 53.50. DAX General overview European stocks traded lower on Monday after Trump’s inaugural speech. The financial sector was down together with energy stocks. Shares of Essentra lost 5% which contributed to the stocks decline as well. Current situation Bears seized the ball on Monday. The index gapped downwards at the daily open and extended its weakness afterwards. Sellers pushed the price downwards and tested the level 11500 post-European session open. The price bounced off the level after touching it and erased some of its recent losses. The DAX index broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100 EMA in the 4 hours chart during the European trades. The 50 and 100 EMAs turned neutral while the 200-EMA maintained its bullishness. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ growing strength. RSI moved to the downside. Trading recommendations If the price overcomes 11500 we could see DAX extending its declines down to 11400. A further extension to 11300 is not ruled out. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street traded lower in the premarket after Donald Trump’s inaugural speech. The disappointment from the US President Donald Trump's speech was behind the market's decline. Investors turned to earnings which are scheduled for this week. Current situation The index turned lower on Friday and continued losing its value on Monday. Sellers returned the price below 5060 and pushed the benchmark lower. The downward momentum lost its legs when the price reached 5040. The index broke the 50-EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. All moving averages keep heading higher. The resistance is at 5060, the support comes in at 5020. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI headed downwards confirming sellers’ strength. Trading recommendations In order to recover some strength, NASDAQ needs to rise back and hold above 5040. In this scenario the benchmark has a chance of maintaining its bid tone. Conversely, a break below 5020 will put on hold bulls’ plans. A firm break below the handle could trigger fresh weakness for attack at 5000. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted January 24, 2017 Author Share Posted January 24, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 25.01.2017 Euro General overview Manufacturing PMI in Germany posted better-than-expected results. Services PMI showed on the contrary negative figures. The market will be focused on Business Climate in Germany on Wednesday. Current situation Sentiment remained bullish towards the euro on Tuesday. The EUR/USD traded in an ascending channel close to its upper limit. Euro bulls met a barrier at 1.0750 and failed to advance further. After posting a daily high at 1.0770 in the Asian session bulls stepped back and returned the pair to the 1.0750 region. The spot remained above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs kept heading higher while the 200 EMA stayed neutral. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator is near overvalued territory, favoring a move lower. Trading recommendations A close above 1.0750 will generate fresh bullish signal for further advance towards 1.0800. Inability to move beyond the level may cause a pull back. The EUR/USD pair may correct lower to 1.0670 and 1.0650. Pound General overview Traders booked some profits ahead of the UK Supreme Court's decision on Brexit. The Supreme Court had to decide whether Parliament approval is required to launch Article 50. Current situation The bullish market structure remained in place on Tuesday. Buyers failed to retake 1.2500 and had to retreat giving the floor to sellers. A fresh buying interest around the US currency helped the US dollar to recover from the recent lows. Sellers pushed the price lower in the Asian session but failed to advance below the mark 1.2460 before the European session. The pair continued its slide towards 1.2450 ahead of the NY session opening. The moving averages were mixed in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA remained bearish while the 50 and 100 EMAs were turning upwards. Moreover, the 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ growing strength. The RSI indicator remained within overbought readings. Trading recommendations Sustained break above the 1.2500 region is seen as minimum requirement needed to confirm bullish resumption. In this scenario, buyers may lead prices towards 1.2540, en rout to 1.2600. To ease the current upward pressure the spot needs to close below 1.2400. We will buy before this level reaching. Yen General overview The yen received a light support from the upbeat Manufacturing PMI. Moreover, the uncertainty around Trump’s economic agenda kept on weighing on the US dollar. Current situation Sellers continued to dominate on Tuesday. However, bears seem to have taken a breath after meeting the solid support around multi-week lows at 112.50. The price bounced from the 112.50 support zone in the Asian session and developed a goodish recovery building on to its momentum back above 113.00 handle afterwards. After breaking the level the USD/JPY pair extended its growth in the European session. The US dollar had reversed half of Monday's sharp drop by the NY session opening. According the 4 hours chart the pair remained below its moving averages. The 50 and 100 EMAs advanced south while the 200-EMA remained neutral. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00. The technical indicators bounced from oversold levels staying within negative readings. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ growing strength. RSI bounced off the oversold area and headed north. Trading recommendations If bears retain control the spot will return below 113.00. This scenario risks the advance towards 112.00. To put on hold bears’ plans buyers need a clear break above 114.00. NZD/USD Current situation The bullish momentum faded in the Asian session on Tuesday. The price gave up it recent gains and rolled back below 0.7250 in the late Asian session. Sellers extended their gains pushing the spot towards 0.7200 during the European hours. The selling interest lost its legs after touching the handle which rejected the price upwards. The pair remained above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA remained flat. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7250, the support comes in at 0.7200. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a move lower. Trading recommendations The 0.7250 hurdle seems the next probable bullish target. After breaking this level 0.7300 will come back to the radar. A return below 0.7150 risks a decline back towards the support at 0.7100. XAU/USD General overview Uncertainties around Trump's Presidency continued weighing on gold prices limiting a downslide on Tuesday. Current situation Despite the ongoing easing the precious metal remained in green on Tuesday. The resistance 1220 dollars per ounce appeared to be a tough nut to crack. After testing the level the metal bounced back in the Asian session and returned to 1210 in the European one. Sellers lost their steam around the handle waiting for new market movers. The 50 and 100 EMAs kept their advance north while the 200-EMA just turned upwards. The resistance exists at 1220, the support stands at 1210 dollars per ounce. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI moved to a downside. Trading recommendations If the XAU/USD pair stays above 1210 dollars per ounce the gold spot may escalate up to 1220 first, en route to 1230. Brent General overview Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday following output cuts announced by the OPEC on Monday. All eyes are on API inventory report. Current situation Oil prices rebounded in the Asian session on Tuesday. The buying sentiment was boosted by a weaker US dollar. However, the Asian recovery stalled above 55.50 dollars per barrel when the benchmark found fresh offers. Brent sharply dropped and broke the level 55.50 erasing all its recent gains. The benchmark bounced off the 50-EMA and tested the 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart in the mid-European session. All moving averages were neutral. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI oscillator moved downwards. Trading recommendations Brent seems to be unable to climb over 55.50. Sellers returned the price to the level on any up-move higher. A close below the hurdle will trigger losses towards 54.50 dollars per barrel. To revive bullishness oil prices need to retake the 55.50. DAX General overview European stocks moved lower on Tuesday on UK Supreme Court decision regarding Brexit. The Prime Minister will require parliamentary approval to launch Brexit now. Energy stocks traded higher, financial stocks registered gains as well. Current situation The index remained under pressure on Tuesday. DAX stayed below 11600 getting under selling pressure on any up-move towards the hurdle. The benchmark failed to retake the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The DAX index stayed between the 50 and 100 EMAs during the European hours. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs maintained their bullish slope. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI was neutral. Trading recommendations We await a break below 11500 to trigger a new leg lower. S&P500 Current situation The index traded in the negative area on Tuesday. The benchmark stayed around the level 2260 trying to break it lower. S&P500 was struggling with the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart during the day. The 50-EMA acted as a resistance for the index. The 50 and 100 EMAs were neutral while the 200-EMA moved upwards. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260. MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI was neutral. Trading recommendations If a selling interest persists a move below 2260 would revive bearishness towards 2240. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 26.01.2017 Euro General overview The European common currency got under selling pressure in the morning trades on Wednesday amid negative Business Climate release in Germany. A demand for the euro emerged in the European session helping the major to reverse its losses climbing to fresh highs. Current situation Bears tried to take control over the market on Wednesday. After a night consolidation sellers made an attempt to move the price lower at the beginning of the European session. The price headed towards 1.0700 first, however, the selling interest faded soon. The pair found fresh bids above 1.0700 and extended its corrective rally on risk-on trades. The common currency rallied and reversed all Tuesday’s losses by the noon. The spot hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700. MACD grew which indicates the buyers’ positions strengthening. RSI stayed within overvalued readings. Trading recommendations A bullish tone prevailed in the 4 hours chart. We will place buy orders if the EURAUD does a breakout at the resistance level of 1.0750. The pair might extend its gains towards 1.0800 afterwards. Meanwhile, inability to climb above 1.07500 risks a decline back to 1.0700. Pound General overview The UK Industrial Trends Survey - Orders grew for January providing support for the cable. Investors kept weighing up M.Carney's remarks. The immediate focus now remains on the UK GDP for 4Q. Traders expect a light decline in the GDP. Current situation The GBP/USD pair kept its rangebound stance unchanged the first part of Wednesday. The spot traded in a tight range flirting with 1.2500 during the day. A fresh buying impetus boosted the GBP/USD pair to 1.2600 after London's opening. The spot continued developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA pointed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI indicator consolidated within overvalued readings favoring a new move higher. Trading recommendations Strategically, we preserve bearish outlook and see risks of a move down towards 1.2400 over the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the price maintained its bullish tone in the 4 hours chart. The GBP/USD pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate resistance near 1.2700. However, the spot needs to break the 1.2600 level first to maintain its bullishness. Yen General overview Protectionist rhetoric from the White House kept weighing on the dollar. Exports and Merchandise Trade Balance in Japan showed upbeat data supporting the national currency. Current situation USD/JPY remained in bearish trend. Tuesday’s recovery stalled when the price met a barrier at 114.00. Buyers failed to retake the level which rejected the USD/JPY pair downwards. The spot rolled back and stopped a few pips below the hurdle. The pair was confined to a well limited range below 114.00 during the European hours and continued its slide ahead of the NY session opening. The 4 hours chart showed that the price tested the 50-EMA in the early trades. The US dollar failed to reclaim the 50-EMA and bounced off it. The benchmark remained below its moving averages. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading lower while the 200-EMA stayed flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI remained within the neutral area. Trading recommendations We expect to see renewed bearish pressure in the coming sessions. Sellers may drive the pair to 113.00 first, en route to 112.50. USD/CAD General overview Trump’s plans to revive Keystone XL and Dakota Access oil pipelines weighed on the Canadian dollar. However, the Loonie recovered some ground later the day in the light of weaker oil prices. Current situation The US dollar remained rather unchanged against its Canadian peer. After a sharp sell-off sellers took a breath consolidating their gains. The price hovered above 1.3120 in the morning after being rejected in the early Asian trades. A fresh buying interest emerged in the mid-European session pushing the US dollar upwards. An attempt to raise rates failed and a downward pressure returned the spot to 1.3120 in the mid-European session. The CAD broke 100 and 50-EMAs downwards in the 4 hours chart. The USD/CAD pair stayed below the moving averages afterwards. The 100-EMAs kept heading lower while the 50 and the 200-EMAs were neutral in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3190, the support comes in at 1.3120. MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI consolidated within the oversold readings. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bearish, for a fall towards 1.3050 support area. However, the USD/CAD is oversold and we do not rule out a minor correction towards 1.32. XAU/USD General overview Uncertainty around Trump’s economic agenda and lack of US data softened the US dollar. Gold took an advantage of weaker dollar and strengthened. Markets now eagerly await the US Housing Price Index report. Current situation Gold prices turned negative after the opening. The XAU/USD pair came under some profit-taking pressure on Wednesday. Bears seized control and pushed the price downwards. The metal pushed away from the 1210 dollars per ounce in the Asian session and headed downwards. European traders continued dragging gold futures downwards and reached 1200 in the mid-European session. However, the level limited sellers’ advance rejecting the gold spot. According to the 4 hours chart the price broke the 50-EMA downwards and stayed between the 50 and the 100-EMAs afterwards. The 50 and the 100-EMA pointed higher, while the 200-EMA remained flat. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI left the neutral territory and entered oversold readings. Trading recommendations The uptrend is not over yet. The buying interest remains while 1195 pivot holds. We expect gold prices to resume their growth. A break above 1210 will suggest its further strengthening towards 1220 dollars per ounce. Brent General overview Oil prices edged lower ahead of the EIA crude stockpiles report. Current situation Traders remained equally divided between bulls and bears on Wednesday. Brent failed to sustain a minor-recovery above 55.50 hurdle and extended losses below the last. The price remained in a tight range during the Asian session. Traders made an attempt to lower the price in the early European session but succeeded in the second one. The price broke its moving averages downwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages remained flat in the same chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI remained within neutral area. Trading recommendations We suppose the benchmark will go to 54.50 first. Having overcome the first target the price might advance towards 53.50 dollars per barrel. DAX General overview European stocks traded in green on Wednesday. The latest earnings reports supported stocks. The growth was boosted by Logitech and Banco Santander upbeat figures. Current situation The index gapped higher at the daily open. The benchmark maintained its bid tone afterwards. Buyers pushed the price through 11700 in the early European trades. DAX extended its rally in the late European hours approaching to 11800. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 100 and 50 EMAs upwards. The benchmark moved away from the moving averages which kept heading higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11800, the support stands at 11700. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI stayed within overvalued readings favoring a new move higher. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay bullish for now. If the benchmark stays above 11700 DAX will aim at 11800. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street futures hit record highs on Wednesday. The post-election rally seems to have returned boosted by President Trump's push for pro-growth policies. Current situation The index had a positive day on Wednesday. A brief consolidation phase was over by the European trades opening. European traders pushed the price higher which rallied towards 5120. The upward impetus faded about the mark ahead of the NY session opening. NASDAQ continued developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200-EMAs accelerated their advance north in the same chart. The resistance is at 5140, the support comes in at 5100. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator stayed near overbought levels, favoring a new move higher. Trading recommendations The technical picture presents a bullish tone. A break above 5100 opened the way to the 5140 hurdle. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted January 26, 2017 Author Share Posted January 26, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 27.01.2017 Euro General overview Investors ignored positive Eurozone data: Consumer Confidence Survey in Germany showed better than expected results, Unemployment Survey in Spain declined more than expected. The immediate focus now remains on US GDP which is set for Friday. Current situation The EUR/USD remained in bulls' hands on Thursday. The market seemed fairly balanced amid lack of market mover. The euro remained in a tight range between 1.0720-1.0750 during the Asia session. European traders pushed the price lower. The common European currency dropped and touched 1.0700 in the mid-European session. The spot broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 100 and the 200-EMAs pointed higher while the 50-EMA remained neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left overvalued readings and moved south. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay bearish for now. A move below 1.7000 will signal the presence of sellers. The pair EURUSD may go downwards towards 1.0650 after the level break. If the price closes above 1.0750, the market may continue moving upwards. Pound General overview The UK's Q4 GDP came in better-than-expected supporting the national currency. Moreover, the pound received extra support after Supreme Court decision which ruled that Article 50 requires parliamentary approval to be launched. We expect US Gross Domestic Product Price and Durable Goods Orders releases on Friday. We will also be keeping a close eye on Trump and May's meeting. Theresa May will become the first foreign leader to meet the new President. Current situation The pound surprised markets on Wednesday, having successfully climbed over the 1.26 hurdle. After reaching multi-month highs the GBP/USD pair slowed down. Buyers seem to have completed an upside impulse for now. Having run out of steam bulls stopped at 1.2650 in the mid-European session and gave way to sellers. Bears pushed the price lower and tested 1.2600 ahead of the NY session opening. The spot extended its losses in the early US trades. The 4 hours chart showed that the price hovered above its moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI indicator consolidated within overvalued readings. Trading recommendations Technically the GBP/USD pair is heavily overbought. We expect a correction move below 1.2600. If the spot fixates below the handle we could see GBPUSD extending its declines down to 1.2500. Yen General overview The yen weakened despite existing risks towards world trade which keep supporting the safe-heaven yen. Japan will release CPI figures in the night. Current situation Bears lost the ball on Thursday. The pair stayed range-bound-to higher in the Asian session. An upward impetus emerged ahead of the European session opening. The US dollar bounced off 113.00 and moved towards 114.00 during the morning hours. The U.S dollar accelerated its recovery post-European open and jumped to fresh session peak above 114.00 level. The price broke the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The spot continued developing well below the 100 and the 200-EMAs afterwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed lower while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI left the neutral area and moved north. Trading recommendations Bulls keep focus at 114.50. If they start to challenge this area it is likely to break and the price may move towards the 115.00 hurdle. AUD/USD General overview The Australian market was closed amid Australia Day. The Aussie softened on the back of the U.S. dollar recovery. Moreover, falling Chinese industrial profits weighed on the Australian dollar. Current situation The AUD/USD remained in an ascending channel. However, buyers have no strength to go higher any more. The Asian recovery stalled at 0.7583. The AUD dropped at the beginning of the European session and broke the 0.7550 handle. Sellers continued leading the price lower in the NY session. According to the 4 hours chart the pair tested the 50-EMA. The spot stayed above the moving averages during the day. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7550, the support comes in at 0.7500. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI left the overvalued readings and entered the neutral area. Trading recommendations We prefer to put on hold bulls’ plans for now. A break below 0.7550 might force the AUD/USD pair to resume its downward trajectory towards 0.7500. XAU/USD General overview Gold prices edged lower following European and EU stocks rally. However, concerns over Trump’s protectionism kept limiting the US dollar recovery especially after Donald Trump signed a set of immigration laws on Wednesday. Current situation Gold prices remained under heavy selling pressure on Thursday. Sellers failed to move the price below 1193 in the night. The XAU/USD pair bounced off the mark and reversed some losses. The upward impetus, however, lost its legs at 1202 dollars per ounce in the late Asian session. The price turned around and returned below the handle in the European hours. The yellow metal continued trading in negative ground during the day and broke 1190 ahead of the NY session opening. The price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMA remained bullish, while the 200-EMA was flat. The resistance exists at 1190, the support stands at 1180 dollars per ounce. MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI consolidated within oversold readings. Trading recommendations To maintain control sellers need to retake 1190 dollars per ounce. In light of this scenario sellers will drive gold spot to 1180. To revive bullishness the precious metal needs to return above 1205-1210 dollars per ounce. Brent General overview Weaker dollar supported demand for oil. However, Brent growth was limited amid a large number of supplies and bulging inventories despite OPEC’s attempts to cut output. Current situation Brent extended its consolidation on Thursday. The price traded comfortably around 55.50 during the day. As we see the level is defended by sellers as any buyers' attempt to move the benchmark higher failed. The 50, 100 and 200-EMA were neutral in the 4 hours chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI remained within the neutral area. Trading recommendations The technical picture presented a bullish tone. Our next short-term target for the oil price is 56.50, after which we see Brent extending its rise over coming days towards the 57.50 dollars per barrel. DAX General overview European stocks traded higher following the news that Johnson & Johnson is to buy Actelion for $30 billion. Meanwhile, mining stocks traded mixed while financial stocks were on upside. Current situation The tone was positive in the market on Thursday. The index gapped higher at the daily open. DAX continued moving higher after the gap and reached 11900 in the early European trades. Buyers failed to retake the level and stayed a few pips below the hurdle during the day. The benchmark hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11900, the support stands at 11800. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. The RSI indicator remained within overvalued readings favoring a new move higher. Trading recommendations The price maintained its bullish tone in the 4 hours chart. A close above 11800 will trigger gains towards 11900. S&P500 General overview U.S. stock posted fresh record highs amid upbeat corporate earnings reports. Current situation The bullish market structure remained in place on Thursday. S&P500 extended its vertical rise and tested the level 2300 in the early Asian trades. The hurdle limited the further bulls' advance and rejected the price downwards. The spot continued developing well above its moving averages in the 1 hour chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance is at 2300, the support comes in at 2280. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator consolidated within overbought levels. Trading recommendations If the bullish tone persists we expect a breakout of the level 2300. The next level to focus on is 2320. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted January 29, 2017 Author Share Posted January 29, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 30.01.2017 Euro General overview The euro weakened amid the US dollar growing strength. The lack of market moving news in the calendar left the common currency flat-out. Current situation The euro continued its slide overnight and left the short-term upward channel. The common European currency traded mixed in the Asian session staying in a tight range 1.0650-1.0690. The pair maintained its neutral stance during the early European hours. The euro found fresh bids around 1.0700 and rallied through the level heading towards 1.0750 ahead of the NY opening. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. The spot stayed above the 100 and the 200-EMAs afterwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs headed north while the 200-EMA remained flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0750, the .support comes in at 1.0700. MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI was within oversold readings close to the neutral area. Trading recommendations A close above 1.0700 will generate fresh bullish signal for further advance, which could extend to 1.0750 level. Pound General overview The pound weakened amid a growing demand for the US dollar. The cable has a chance to return some ground after Trump and May’s meeting. The downbeat US data may also kick the cable higher. Current situation The pound continued losing its value vs. the dollar in the Thursday’s night. The spot pushed away from 1.2600 and moved towards 1.2500 during the Asian hours. The pound continued losing its value in the European session approaching 1.2500. The level, however, stopped sellers’ advance and rejected the spot upwards. The price continued developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept pointing higher while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator left the overvalued readings and entered the neutral area. Trading recommendations The bullish trend remained intact and the cable has a chance to return some ground if it gets above 1.2600. A breakout of 1.2600 level would aim for 1.2700. On the other hand existing selling pressure may lead the spot below 1.2500 aiming the pair to 1.2400. Yen General overview The yen softened amid broad US dollar recovery. The growing US yields weighed on the Japanese currency as well. Current situation The USD/JPY pair maintained its bid tone on Friday. The pair traded with slight gains in the Asian session. Buyers broke the level 115.00 in the night and continued moving higher afterwards. The pair extended its bounce in the European session when the price broke 115.00 and advanced further. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs upwards. The 100-EMA pointed lower while the 50 and the 200-EMAs remained flat in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00. MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI was within the overvalued readings favoring a new move higher. Trading recommendations If the level 115.00 holds we recommend going short with the first target – 114.00. The US dollar needs to fixate above 115.00 before a price can rally towards 116.00. NZD/USD General overview The US dollar maintained its bid tone on Friday. Markets waited for Trump’s new steps and the US GDP for Q4. Current situation The pair remained in an ascending channel on Friday. The downward impetus pushed the price to its lower limit on Thursday. An overnight recovery failed to show meaningful results. Only European traders managed to push the spot higher. The NZD/USD extended its recovery in the North American session. The price hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs headed upwards while the 200-EMA was neutral in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7300, the support comes in at 0.7250. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI was within the overvalued readings close to the neutral area. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay bullish for now. Our short-term objective for the NZD/USD is 0.7311. XAU/USD General overview Gold remained under pressure on Friday. The metal reached the lowest level since Jan. 11 and stopped. The US treasury bond yields growth boosted the US Dollar's recovery weighing on the dollar-denominated commodities - like gold. Current situation The U.S. currency maintained control of the flows. The bearish momentum was strong enough to push the price lower in the night session. The precious metal started its slide at 1188 dollars per ounce at the Asian open and reached 1180 in the early European trades. Gold remained well offered, however, sellers failed to push the price below the handle. The precious metal bounced from the level and remained in its region afterwards. According to the 4 hours chart the price continued developing well below the 50 and the 100-EMAs. The 100-EMA remained bullish, while the 50 and 200-EMAs were flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 1190, the support stands at 1180 dollars per ounce. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI consolidated within oversold readings. Trading recommendations Technically the yellow metal is heavily oversold. We do not rule out a correction on profit taking. We hold the view that gold prices will struggle to climb north to the 1190-1195 region. The next probable bullish target is 1200 dollars per ounce. Brent General overview Oil prices touched 2 week peaks, however, failed to retake the level. The further Brent advance was capped by the growing concerns over rising US production. Current situation After a jump on Thursday Brent oil prices were on neutral-to-bearish stance in the night. Traders found a solid resistance at 56.50 dollars per barrel and spent the Asian session just below the level. A fresh selling interest emerged in the late European trades. Sellers drove the price to 55.50 ahead of the NY session opening. The price tested its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The spot remained above the 50, 100 and 200-EMAs during the day. The moving averages remained mixed and flat in the same chart. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI left the overvalued readings and headed south. Trading recommendations As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the levels at 55.50 and 54.50 dollars per barrel. DAX General overview European stocks edged lower amid weak corporate earnings. Current situation After posting fresh weekly peaks at 11900 the index rolled back and returned to 11800. We guess DAX fell on profit taking on Thursday as the overall picture remained bullish. After touching the level the price remained around it the second part of the day. The benchmark continued developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages kept heading higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11900, the support stands at 11800. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI indicator consolidated within overvalued readings. Trading recommendations We believe that a downmove will start as soon, as the index drops below the support level 11800. DAX may extend its decline to the 11700 region. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street traded flat ahead of U.S GDP data. Moreover, investors took a pause after Dow's recent rally. Current situation NASDAQ gave up its fresh all times highs and rolled back in the Asian session on Friday. The benchmark reached 5140 where the price found fresh bids and rose to 5155. However, a buying impetus lost its legs soon, the benchmark turned around and attacked 5140. The price hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200-EMAs kept heading higher in the same chart. The resistance is at 5180, the support comes in at 5140. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator remained within overbought levels. Trading recommendations We favor a short-term bearish bias based on profit-taking. A break below 5140 will suggest further weakness towards 5100. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted January 30, 2017 Author Share Posted January 30, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 31.01.2017 Euro General overview The euro ignored positive GDP in Spain and softened on Monday. Markets eye the upcoming ECB meeting and Consumer Price Index which is expected in green. Current situation The EUR/USD gapped higher at the daily open on Monday. The price jumped from 1.0700 to 1.0740 in the early Asian trades. The dollar's negative tone however, reversed mid Asian session. Bulls failed to extend their gains and stepped back giving the way to sellers. Bears seized control and pushed the spot back to 1.0700 where the spot traded almost unchanged in the mid-European session. A fresh selling interest emerged before NY opening. The EUR/USD pair made a good break lower and reached 1.0650. The price broke the 50-EMA downwards and tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart in the mid-European trades. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA remained flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0700, the .support comes in at 1.0650. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI was within the neutral area and moved south. Trading recommendations The 1.0750 resistance needs to be retested before the EUR/USD pair might rally towards 1.8000. However, the spot has all chances to turn bearish now. Should the price fixate below 1.0650 the way towards 1.0550 will be opened. Pound General overview There was not much to watch on the UK calendar on Monday. All eyes are on the Bank of England on Wednesday. Current situation The GBP/USD gapped higher at the start of the new week. The spot jumped up to 1.2600 where the price met a strong barrier. The major bounced off the hurdle, dropped back towards the opening price сlosing the bullish opening gap. The spot pressured the 1.2500 level in the European session, but failed to retake the handle. The pound hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs headed north while the 200-EMA was neutral-bearish in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator left the overvalued readings and headed south. Trading recommendations The technical picture favors the downside. Should the 1.2500 level break down it will determine further direction of the GBPUSD pair towards 1.2400. Yen General overview The US treasury bonds growth helped the US dollar to reverse some losses. Besides, weak Retail Trades in Japan weakened the national currency. Current situation A strong two day rally was capped above 115.00. The US dollar gapped lower vs. its Japanese peer at open on Monday. The greenback jumped from 115.00 to 114.85 and extended its losses afterwards. After finding fresh bids around 114.23 the price turned around and rallied back to the opening price. The spot approached 115.00 in the early European trades but retreated immediately after the level test. The USD/JPY pair stayed a few pips below the level ahead of the NY opening. The price tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The spot remained around the 100-EMA after testing the moving. The 100 and the 200-EMAs were flat while the 50 pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 115.00, the support comes in at 114.00. MACD traded to the upside. The RSI was within the overvalued readings close to the neutral territory. Trading recommendations Bullish near-term studies support further upside sentiment. A firm break above 115.00 handle would open 116.00. USD/CAD General overview Investors’ attention now turns to GDP which will be published on Wednesday. Meanwhile oil prices decline weighed on the commodity-linked currency – Lonnie. Moreover, Quebec mosque terrorist attack on Sunday weighed a bit on the Canadian Dollar. Current situation The greenback extended its near-term bullish momentum on Monday. After a brief consolidation during the Asian hours the US dollar moved upwards. The pair accelerated its growth in early Europe trades heading towards 1.3190. However, the upside momentum was halted at 1.3158 where the major remained ahead of NA opening. According to the 4 hours chart the spot stayed below its moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 200-EMAs were neutral while the 100-EMA headed downwards in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3190, the support comes in at 1.3120. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI was within the neutral area. Trading recommendations All eyes are right now at the support level 1.3120. A cut through here will turn attention to the 1.3090 mark. En route to 1.3050. XAU/USD General overview Precious metal is in demand in the light of Trump’s moves. The US President banned travelers from seven Muslim countries from entering the USA. Current situation Friday’s recovery stalled at 1195 dollars per ounce. After reaching the mark the precious metal reversed its direction and moved lower. Gold prices touched the level 1190 at the start of European trades and stayed around the level ahead of the North American session open. The price bounced off the 100-EMA and stayed below the 50 and the 100-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA and the 200-EMA were neutral while the 50-EMA pointed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 1190, the support stands at 1180 dollars per ounce. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI left the neutral territory and moved south. Trading recommendations A move below 1190 would indicate that immediate upward pressure eased. The next level to focus on is 1180 dollars per ounce. Brent General overview Rising US production continued weighing on oil prices. Besides, a growing number of the US rigs added some downbeat tone in the commodity. Current situation Oil prices remained in its familiar range on Monday. The price stayed range bound to higher between 55.50 and 55.15 during the day. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke its moving averages upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs crossed the 200-EMA downwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were bearish while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI stayed within the oversold readings close to the neutral territory. Trading recommendations Short term bias indicates selling interest. We expect a firm break below 55.50 handle which could trigger fresh weakness for attack at 54.50 dollars per barrel. DAX General overview World stocks decline dragged European stocks lower. Market participants are concerned about D.Trump's moves as the US President. Current situation The index gapped lower at the weekly open. The price gapped through 11800 and maintained its bearish tone afterwards. The bears tightened grip and sent the rate back towards 11700 handle in the early European trades. The spot hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11800, the support stands at 11700. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator left the overvalued readings favoring a new move lower. Trading recommendations The immediate risk is still clearly on the downside but we prefer to wait for a daily closing below 11700 before turning bearish. Our first profit target will be 11600. S&P500 General overview US stocks traded lower on Monday following the uncertainty after the recent Trump’s moves over the external policy. Traders are concerned that the future Trump’s policy may impact both the US and the World economies. Current situation S&P500 gapped lower at the open. The price jumped to 2280 which appeared to be a solid barrier. After touching the level the benchmark had to retreat and rolled back to 2285 almost filling the night gap. According to the 4 hours chart the benchmark continued developing well above its moving averages. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance is at 2300, the support comes in at 2280. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator was within the neutral area. Trading recommendations The price eyes strong support at 2280 handle loss of which would trigger further weakness towards 2270 area. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted January 31, 2017 Author Share Posted January 31, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 01.02.2017 Euro General overview The euro received support from Unemployment Change in Germany. The Unemployment Rate in the Euroland showed upbeat results as well. The euro extended its gains following the positive Q4 GDP. Moreover, the US dollar weakened after Trump’s top trade adviser accused Germany of currency exploitation. Current situation The Asian recovery halted at 1.0720. The euro returned to 1.0700 afterwards where the spot stayed during the European hours. The overall sentiment was neutral amid lack of any market movers in the European session. A fresh buying interest emerged ahead of the NY opening. The price jumped to 1.0750 and immediately broke the hurdle. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs headed higher while the 200-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0800, the support comes in at 1.0750. MACD indicator remained at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI moved upwards. Trading recommendations We expect to see renewed bearish pressure if the pair failed to retake 1.0750. A breakout below 1.0700 might force the EURUSD pair to resume its downward trajectory towards 1.0650. Pound General overview The UK data calendar was light on Tuesday. All eyes are on the Bank of England and its upcoming meeting. The BoE is to publish Manufacturing PMI while the Fed will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. The Bank is likely to keep the rate unchanged. Current situation The pound came under further selling pressure in the early trades on Tuesday. The pair failed to sustain the Asian recovery and sharply fell during the morning hours. The sterling broke 1.2500 and tested fresh lows around 1.2400 in the mid-European session. The l.2400 level rejected the price after London's opening. The price moved upwards and reversed all its daily losses. The spot broke the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept heading higher while the 200-EMA pointed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400. MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI indicator left the neutral area and moved downwards. Trading recommendations Last price action put on hold bears’ plans. Buyers have a chance to neutralize the downward pressure if they fixate above 1.2500. Yen General overview The BoJ decision to leave the rate unchanged supported the yen on Tuesday. Moreover, a risk-off sentiment made the yen more attractive. Besides, the US dollar was under pressure after Trump’s decision to restrict immigration from 7 countries and his top adviser accusations towards Germany. Current situation The USD/JPY pair reversed early losses on Tuesday. The spot caught fresh bids around 113.50 amid some fresh US dollar buying interest during European morning trades. Traders pushed the US dollar higher reclaiming the 114.00 hurdle ahead of the NY opening. The spot found fresh offers around 114.00. The pair turned negative and eased towards the daily low at 113.00. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed lower while the 200-EMA was bearish-neutral. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI remained within the overvalued territory. Trading recommendations If bulls retain control over the market, we cannot rule out the chance that the USD/JPY pair would try to get to the level 115.00 after breaking 114.00. A break below 113.00 will show room for further downside towards 112.50. AUD/USD General overview Private Sector Credit improved in Australia supporting the national currency. Meanwhile, investors are in wait-and-see mode ahead of Fed's meeting. Current situation The AUD/USD pair remained directionless staying around 0.7550 during the morning trades on Tuesday. A fresh bout of buying interest pushed the price higher ahead of the NY opening. The 50 and the 100-EMAs kept pointing higher while the 200-EMA was flat in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7600, the support comes in at 0.7550. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram returns the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD enters into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI left the overvalued and entered the neutral area. Trading recommendations No clear direction could be expected while the price holds within the current range 0.7540 - 0.7570. However, we expect a positive bias in the coming session. We recommend placing buy orders only if the spot fixates above 0.7570. The next bullish target is 0.7600. XAU/USD General overview Gold prices turned bullish on Tuesday when risk-off sentiment returned. The uncertainty around the new US administration kept weighing on the US dollar. There has not been a single day without a surprise Trump's announcement that affected the financial world since Trump took over the office. Current situation The risky mode faded away from the market as the positive statement strengthened. Fresh bids around 1200 dollars per ounce pushed the price away from the handle. Gold spot accelerated its growth rallying towards 1210 ahead of the NY opening. Gold prices maintained its recovery rally in the early US session. The resistance exists at 1210, the support stands at 1200 dollars per ounce. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 50 and 100 EMAs upwards. The 50-EMA acts as a support right now. The 100-EMA pointed higher while the 50 and the 200-EMAs were neutral in the mentioned timeframe. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI entered the overbought area. Trading recommendations The price maintained its bullish tone in the 4 hours chart. If the pair fixates above 1205, the precious metal may continue its upmove in the short term. The potential buyers’ targets are 1210 and 1215 dollars per ounce. Brent General overview Oil prices edged lower in the early trades on Tuesday amid the US drilling activity growth. However, Brent turned positive and erased overnight losses when focus shifted to U.S. stockpile data. Current situation Oil futures extended their neutral mode in the early trades on Tuesday. The benchmark traded range-bound-to lower during the European hours. An upward impetus pushed the price upwards ahead of the NY opening. The price tried to reclaim 55.50 in the early NY trades. Brent continued developing below its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 200-EMAs were neutral while the 100-EMA headed south in the same chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI stayed within the oversold readings. Trading recommendations The bullish scenario prevailed on Tuesday. To trigger additional upward momentum towards 56.50 the price needs to break the level 55.50 dollars per barrel. DAX General overview European stocks edged lower on Tuesday. Investors kept digesting key data for the Euroland and earnings reports. Energy and financial stocks were higher yesterday. Current situation DAX index remained under pressure on Tuesday. The benchmark was struggling with 11700 during the day. According to the 1 hour chart the benchmark broke the 50-EMA downwards and tested the 100-EMA. The price continued developing well above the 100 and the 200-EMAs.The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11700, the support stands at 11600. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI stayed within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay bearish for now. The benchmark might extend its losses if it fixates below 11700. DAX is likely to test 11600 in this case. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street futures opened in red on Tuesday. Dow sectors declined disappointing investors. Moreover, the fresh Trump's administration moves weighed on the stocks. Current situation The technical picture presented a slightly bearish tone. The price found support at 5100 and stayed around the level during the day. The resistance is at 5140, the support comes in at 5100. The 4 hours chart showed that the benchmark tested the 50-EMA and stayed around it afterwards. The moving averages kept pointing higher in the same chart. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator left the neutral area and entered the oversold readings. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bearish, for decline towards 5060 support area. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 1, 2017 Author Share Posted February 1, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 02.02.2017 Euro General overview The US dollar is under pressure after Trump’s trade advisor remarks where he accused Germany, China and Japan in taking advantages from devaluated currencies. In addition, the euro received some support from upbeat inflation figures in the euro land. Investors’ attention now turns to the Fed meeting. Current situation The EUR/USD upward structure remained intact on Wednesday. The euro remained rather unchanged against the dollar after Tuesday's rally in the early trades. Buyers consolidated their gains holding the spot flat below 1.0800. A fresh selling interest emerged ahead of the NY opening. The pair pushed away from 1.0800 and dropped lower heading towards 1.0750. The price broke the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The spot hovered above its moving averages during the day. The 50 and the 100-EMAs remained bullish while the 200-EMA was flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0800, the support comes in at 1.0750. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI left the neutral territory and stayed within the overvalued readings. Trading recommendations Bulls maintained control over the market. We will buy if the EUR/USD does a breakout at the resistance level of 1.8000. A close above the hurdle will trigger gains towards 1.0850. Yellen’s hawkish comments may return sellers to the market. In this scenario we expect a drop below 1.0750. En route to 1.0700. Pound General overview UK’s Manufacturing PMI matched expectations supporting the national currency. Current situation The pound erased all its Monday’s losses on Wednesday. The trend is clearly bullish now. Buyers met a barrier at 1.2600 and had to retreat in the Asian session. The cable kept struggling for direction near 1.2600 before London's opening. Buyers managed to break the hurdle in the mid-European session and extended their bullishness afterwards. The GBPUSD pair continued developing well above the moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50 and the 100-EMAs maintained their bullish slope while the 200-EMA remained bearish-neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2700, the support comes in at 1.2600. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI was in the overvalued readings. Trading recommendations Risks for a deeper correction lower in the US currency keep growing. The GBPUSD pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate resistance near 1.2700. A break above the level risks a growth towards the mark at 1.2770. Yen Current situation The USD/JPY pair remained under pressure on Wednesday. The US dollar again lost ground versus the yen on Tuesday. The overnight recovery stalled at 113.60 where the price stayed before European session opening. A fresh selling pressure weighed on the spot pushing it towards 113.00 in the mid-European session. However, bulls are not ready to give up their positions above the 113.00 handle. According to the 4 hours chart the price stayed below the 50, 100 and 200-EMAs. The moving averages headed south in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00. MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI was within the oversold territory favoring a new move higher. Trading recommendations The daily technical studies remained in strong bearish setup maintaining risks for fresh attempts lower. We would be selling the USD/JPY pair only if the spot drops below 113.00. The 112.00 handle seems the next probable sellers’ target. NZD/USD General overview BNZ published mixed data on Wednesday. Unemployment Rate showed downbeat results. Employment Change came in line with expectations while Participation Rate grew. Current situation The market remained in bulls' hands on Wednesday. The kiwi extended its reversal from Tuesday's low at 0.7250 and had reversed a minor part of its gains by the mid-European session. The spot almost reached 0.7300 when the buying pressure eased. A fresh bout of selling interest emerged in the early NY trades. Sellers seized control pushing the spot to 0.7250. The price bounced off the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The spot stayed between the 100 and the 50-EMAs afterwards. The moving averages remained bullish in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7300, the support comes in at 0.7250. MACD traded to the upside. The RSI was within the neutral area. Trading recommendations A bullish tone prevails in the 4 hours chart. A break above 0.7300 suggests further growth towards 0.7350. Sellers need to break below 0.7250 to ease the current upward pressure. XAU/USD Current situation Gold moved lower on Wednesday retreating from its recent highs. The price touched the support 1210 in the late Asian trades and stayed around the level afterwards. A downward impetus emerged ahead of the NY opening. Gold spot sharply dropped heading towards 1200. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 100 and the 50-EMAs upwards. The pair continued developing well above its moving averages. The moving averages kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 1220, the support stands at 1210 dollars per ounce. MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. RSI consolidated within the overvalued readings. Trading recommendations The bullish scenario prevailed on Wednesday. Once we break above 1210, we think that the 1220 level will be next. Inability to revive buying momentum may turn the market to the downside. The precious metal may fall to 1200 to gather some steam for more upside action. Brent General overview Oil prices moved upwards within its familiar range as investors awaited U.S. supply data. Current situation Brent remained in a phase of bearish consolidation on Wednesday. The price was trading around 55.50 in the early trades and regained the level later in the day. The benchmark pushed away from the handle and headed upwards ahead of the NY opening. The black gold moved away from its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs were mixed. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The 100 and the 200-EMAs were flat while the 50-EMA pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI stayed within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations We believe that a break below 55.50 level would generate negative signal and risk further easing towards the 54.50 mark. Conversely, a climb above 56.50 is needed to indicate that Brent has completed another correction. DAX General overview European stocks were positive on Wednesday following financial and industrial sectors gains and healthy corporate earnings reports. Current situation The index gapped higher at the open and extended its gains afterwards. The benchmark was neutral in the European hours. A fresh buying pressure emerged ahead of the NY opening pushing DAX to 11700. The benchmark bounced from the 100-EMA upwards and broke the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11700, the support stands at 11600. MACD turned bullish and left negative territory. The RSI bounced from the oversold territory and headed upwards. Trading recommendations DAX is still bullish despite its recent sell-off. A move above 11700 will return bullishness to the market. A clear break above the hurdle risks further growth towards 11800. A failure here will reinforce selling pressure sending the market below the 11500 handle. S&P500 General overview U.S. stocks had an upbeat start on Wednesday amid strong earnings reports. The leader of growth was Apple with his shares up to 3.01% in premarket. Earnings of S&P 500 companies added fresh gains as well. Investors focused on Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. Current situation S&P500 was in buy mode on Wednesday. Traders pushed the index higher in the early trades. Bulls met a barrier at 2280 which halted their buying attempts. A fresh buying interest emerged ahead of the NY opening. The benchmark made a good break above 2280 and maintained its buying bias afterwards. The 4 hours chart showed that the index bounced off the 200-EMA and broke the 100 and the 50-EMAs upwards. The price stayed above its moving averages which were bullish-neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 2280, the support comes in at 2260. MACD traded to the upside. RSI oscillator left the oversold territory and entered the neutral area. Trading recommendations The bullish momentum is likely to be regained. We await a break above 2280 level to trigger another leg higher towards the 2290 area. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 03.02.2017 Euro General overview Decline of Unemployment Change in Spain provided a light support for the euro. The euro also took advantage of the US dollar retracement. Investors kept a close eye on Draghi's speech on Thursday. Current situation The single European currency opened green against the dollar and extended its bullishness afterwards. Traders pushed the price towards 1.0800 in the Asian session and broke the level post-European open. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The pair continued developing well above its moving averages afterwards. The 50, 100 and 200-EMAs pointed higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0850, the support comes in at 1.0800. The MACD indicator is bullish and is still in positive territory. RSI consolidated within the overvalued readings and moved higher. Trading recommendations In a wider perspective the euro could gain bullish momentum if its stays above the resistance at 1.0800. In this scenario the pair EURUSD may extend its growth to 1.8050. Sellers need to break below 1.0700 to ease the upward pressure and the level 1.0600 to seize control. Pound General overview The BoE kept its rate unchanged at 0.25% on Thursday. The regulators' decision softened the pound. Besides, PMI Construction downbeat data provided additional pressure. Current situation The US dollar broad's weakness helped the cable reach fresh multi-month highs on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair kept growing overnight and met a barrier at 1.2700. The pound kept flirting with the hurdle the first part of the day. However, investors did not find any reason to lift the cable higher. The major sharply dropped towards 1.2600 ahead of the NY opening. The 4 hours chart showed that the GBPUSD pair stayed above its moving averages. The 50 and the 100-EMAs headed north while the 200-EMA was flat in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI remained within the overvalued readings. Trading recommendations Technical readings in the 4 hours chart favor an upward extension. We expect the GBPUSD pair to retain bullishness for further gain to 1.2800 after breaking the 1.2700 level. Inability to post fresh gains may cause the sterling to undergo a small bearish correction towards 1.2600 and 1.2500. Yen Current situation The USD/JPY remained under pressure due to the ask sentiment around the dollar. Sellers pushed the spot lower in the Asian session and broke the level 113.00. The pair extended its losses afterwards and reached 112.00 post-European open. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The spot stayed below its moving averages afterwards. The moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00. MACD decreased which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI was within the oversold territory favoring a new move lower. Trading recommendations The outlook will be bearish as long as the price holds below the level 113.00. If the spot fixates below 112.50 a further weakness towards the 112.00 handle is not ruled out. The level 115.00 needs to be regained in order to alleviate downside pressure. USD/CAD Current situation The pair remained in red figures on Thursday. The sellers managed to lead the spot lower in the night. The USD/CAD pair pushed away from 1.3050 and headed towards the immediate handle at 1.2980 where the US dollar found a solid support. After touching the level the pair bounced off and slightly grew. According to the 4 hours chart the price stayed below the moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The moving averages remained bearish in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3050, the support comes in at 1.2980. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. The RSI left the neutral area and stayed within the oversold readings. Trading recommendations The bearish trend remained intact. If the 1.2980 support breaks, the price may fall further that should send this market looking for the 1.2910 level. XAU/USD General overview Dovish Fed's remarks coupled with ongoing worries over Trump's policies kept on weighing on the US dollar. BoE's rate decision triggered some volatility in markets maintaining risk-off sentiment among traders. Focus now shifts towards the US Non-Farms payrolls. Current situation Gold was stronger on Thursday, trading near local highs against the dollar. Gold spot extended its bullishness in the early trades and reached the mark 1215 dollars per ounce where buying momentum faded for a while. The precious metal extended its gains and broke the 1220 resistance in the late European trades. The metal remained above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and the 200-EMAs headed upwards while the 50-EMA was flat. The resistance exists at 1230, the support stands at 1220 dollars per ounce. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI stayed within the overvalued readings. Trading recommendations We believe bulls will remain in driver’s seat. A daily close above 1220 will risk the gold price to extend the recovery pace towards 1230 dollars per ounce. Brent General overview News that OPEC and non-OPEC members stick to output cut deal supported oil outweighing a sharp rise in U.S. crude stockpiles. Current situation Market turned positive on Thursday. Brent left its sideways channel and moved towards 57.00 in the European morning trades. The benchmark continued its growth during the European hours and tested the level later the day. The price was developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 100 and the 200-EMAs were flat while the 50-EMA pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance lies at 57.50, the support comes in at 56.50 dollars per barrel. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. The RSI stayed within the overvalued area favoring a new move higher. Trading recommendations The bullish scenario prevailed on Thursday. Bulls need to retake 57.50 to retain bullishness for further gains towards 58.50 dollars per barrel. DAX General overview European shares traded mixed following the Fed's decision to hold its rate unchanged. Mining and energy stocks added gains while financial stocks were mostly lower. Current situation Sellers continued to dominate and DAX continued to lose its value. The index gapped lower at the open and tested 11600. Sellers failed to reclaim the handle and had to retreat. Buyers had reversed all their morning losses by the NY opening. The 4 hours chart showed that the index broke 50-EMA downwards and tested the 100-EMA. The moving averages remained bullish in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11700, the support stands at 11600. MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI left the neutral area and headed south. Trading recommendations The price maintained its bearish tone in the 4 hours chart. A down move will start as soon, as the index drops below the support level 11600. DAX might extend its downwards trajectory to 11500 level. A move above 11700 would indicate that our bearish expectations are wrong. NASDAQ Current situation The upward structure remained in place on Thursday. The price moved towards the lower limit of the upward channel in the early trades. However, the upward trend line halted its further decline. The benchmark posted a daily low at 5120 and bounced off it. The benchmark bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The index stayed above its moving averages which were all pointed higher. The resistance is at 5140, the support comes in at 5100. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI oscillator was within the neutral area. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay bullish for now. A clear break above 5140 resistance will indicate buyers’ strength. The following upward movement could bring price to 5160 area. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 06.02.2017 Euro General overview The US dollar remained better bid on Friday and overwhelmed the Eurozone mixed data. Composite PMI and Composite PMI from Markit came out better-than-expected while Retail Sales report came in red. Current situation The overall bullish picture remained intact on Friday. The euro was in green, but kept losing ground in the early trades. Traders pushed the spot to the lower limit of the upward channel at 1.0750. Sellers were struggling hard to break the upward trend line in the European session and managed to partly break it ahead of the NY opening. The price tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart during the European hours. All the moving averages kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overvalued readings and moved south. Trading recommendations We favor a short-term bearish bias. Below 1.0750, EURUSD will likely target 1.0700 support. Pound General overview The pound remained under pressure amid a weak Services PMI and a stronger US dollar. Current situation The pound sharply dropped on Thursday. After reaching a strong support at 1.2500 traders took a pause awaiting for fresh drivers in the Asian session. A bout of fresh selling interest pushed the spot lower post London’s open. The pound broke the 1.2500 level and advanced towards 1.2450 in the American session. The GBPUSD pair broke the 50-EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. The spot stayed above the 100 and the 200-EMAs in the European session. The 100-EMA headed higher while the 50 and the 200-EMAs were flat. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI stayed within the oversold readings close to the neutral territory. Trading recommendations We expect a clear break below 1.2500 which would indicate that the bearish phase has resumed. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 1.2400. Yen General overview The US dollar maintained its upbeat tone vs. the yen on expectations of a strong U.S. payrolls report following strong ADP employment data and a solid Initial Jobless Claims report. Current situation Technically, the bearish trend remained intact, although the USD/JPY pair continued its recovery on Friday. The price remained in a downward channel trading around its upper limit at 113.00. Traders tested the level 113.00 in the early trades and continued flirting with the hurdle during the European hours. The 4 hours chart showed that the price continued developing well below its moving averages. The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs kept heading lower in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI left the oversold territory and headed upwards. Trading recommendations Our next short-term objective for the USD/JPY is 113.50, after which we see the pair extending its rise towards the 114.00 level. AUD/USD General overview Poor Chinese PMI weighed on commodities decreasing demand for commodity-linked currencies, like the Australian Dollar. Moreover, the recovery in the US treasury bond yields supported the US dollar on Friday. Current situation The AUD/USD pair traded with mid bearish bias on Friday. Technically, the AUD/USD pair approached multi-month highs. Buyers met a barrier at 0.7700 and failed to retake it. As a result bulls gave up their gains and retreated to 0.7650. The handle halted sellers’ advance holding the price in its region during the European hours. The price spiked in the NY session erasing its daily losses. The AUDUSD pair hovered above its moving averages which were all bullish in the 4 hours timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7700, the support comes in at 0.7650. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator consolidated within the overvalued readings. Trading recommendations AUD/USD needs to regain at least the 0.7700 zone to ease the immediate bearish pressure. Conversely, a downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below the support level 0.7650. After a close below the handle we could see the pair extending its declines down to 0.7550. XAU/USD General overview Gold prices retreated further on Friday amid modest US dollar recovery. The US dollar strengthened ahead of official jobs report weighing on dollar-denominated commodities - like gold. Current situation The upmove lacked momentum after posting a weekly high at 1220 dollars per ounce. The price retreated below the level where fresh offers pushed the rate lower. The precious metal eased more overnight and had approached 1210 by the European session opening. Sellers met a barrier here and took a breath gathering steam for a fresh leg lower. According to the 4 hours chart the gold metal price stayed above its moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 100 and the 200-EMAs headed north while the 50-EMA was bearish-neutral. The resistance exists at 1220, the support stands at 1210 dollars per ounce. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI stayed within the overvalued readings close to the neutral area. Trading recommendations A move below 1210 will signal the presence of sellers. A move lower might suggest further weakness of the gold metal price towards the 1200 level. Brent General overview Talks of US sanctions on Iran limited oil prices recovery on Friday. Current situation Brent oil prices turned lower on Friday. Buyers failed to break through 57.50 and dropped to the 56.50 dollars per barrel handle which halted its further advance. Bearish views seem to be getting more popular. Sellers kept trying to push the price lower in the NY session. The oil price remained above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA crossed the 200-EMA upwards. The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs were bullish-neutral in the same chart. The resistance lies at 57.50, the support comes in at 56.50 dollars per barrel. The MACD indicator is bullish and is still in positive territory. The RSI consolidated within the overvalued area. Trading recommendations Brent price is having difficulties to go any higher. We recommend going short with the first target – 56.50. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 55.50 dollars per barrel. DAX General overview European stocks opened higher expecting strong releases from Eurozone. However, the published mixed data limited stocks growth. In general, financial stocks were mixed while mining stocks were sharply lower on Friday. Current situation The index remained under pressure on Friday. DAX traded in a fresh sideways channel between 11700 and 11600 during the day. Any buyers’ attempts to reverse losses failed and the price always returned to a downside. According to the 4 hours chart the benchmark stayed between the 50 and the 100-EMAs. The moving averages kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11700, the support stands at 11600. MACD traded to the downside. The RSI left the oversold readings and entered the neutral area. Trading recommendations In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture favors a downward extension. We suppose the index will go to 11600 first. Having overcome the first target the price might advance towards 11550. S&P500 General overview US futures edged higher in American session ahead of official job data, hoping to get fresh timing Fed's rate hike. Current situation S&P500 was in buy mode on Friday. A fresh buying interest emerged in the night and pushed the benchmark to 2280. The level slowed down bulls' advance holding the price in its region during the European session. S&P500 reclaimed the level in the NA session. The index bounced off the 200-EMA and broke the 50 and 100 EMAs upwards in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and the 200-EMAs were neutral while the 50-EMA moved higher. The resistance is at 2300, the support comes in at 2280. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator was within the neutral area. Trading recommendations We believe that the uptrend will start as soon, as the index rises above the resistance level 2280. The next portable bullish target is 2300. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 07.02.2017 Euro General overview The dollar kept weighing on the euro on Monday. The pair weakened amid the US dollar recovery after the recent sell-off. Moreover, the single European currency ignored positive Factory Orders in Germany. Current situation The euro turned negative after the opening on Monday. A failure to break above 1.0800 caused some profit-taking making the spot move lower. The price bounced off the 1.0800 hurdle and dropped to 1.0750 in the mid-European session. Sellers extended their gains in the NA session. The EURUSD pair tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs were bullish in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0750, the support comes in at 1.0700. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overvalued readings and headed south. Trading recommendations The technical picture presents a short-term bearish tone. Bears keep focus at 1.0700. After breaking the level the support 1.0650 might comes into play. A break below 1.0650 may change a market sentiment turning it negative. Nevertheless, we will maintain our positive outlook until we see a break below the mentioned handle. Pound General overview The British pound kept losing ground on Monday after the BoE showed no rush to hike rates and Inflation Report last week. Current situation The pound traded mixed on Monday. The cable lost some ground in the early trades and moved lower. A fresh buying interest emerged in early Europe trades and supported the spot. The pair stabilized in the late European hours and remained a few pips below 1.2500 ahead of the North American session. The 4 hours chart showed that the price broke the 50-EMA downwards and stayed above the 100 and the 200-EMAs in the first part of the day. The 100-EMA headed north while the 50 and the 200-EMAs were neutral in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400. MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI stayed within the oversold readings close to the neutral territory. Trading recommendations The bullish trend remained intact despite the recent decline. A close below 1.2500 will generate fresh bearish signal for a further advance, which could extend to 1.2400 barrier. Conversely, a close above 1.2500 will return bullishness to the pair. The spot may recover to 1.2600 in the short-term. Yen General overview The US dollar extended its losses on Monday after unimpressive US jobs report on Friday. Current situation The USD/JPY remained in a near-term downward channel on Monday. The spot slightly recovered in the early Asian trades and reversed a minor part of its losses. However, the recovery stalled at 112.78 where the price slowed down and rolled back. A fresh selling pressure in the late European session pushed the spot lower. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The US dollar continued developing well below its moving averages during the day trades. The 50 and the 100-EMAs pointed lower while the 200-EMA was bearish-neutral in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00. MACD declined which indicates the sellers’ positions strengthening. RSI was within the oversold territory close to the neutral area. Trading recommendations The USD/JPY pair remains bearish for now. The 112.20 mark will need to be retested before a price can drop towards 112.00. NZD/USD Current situation The pair remained in an upward channel on Monday. The New Zealand dollar traded around its recent highs hovering above 0.7300 during the day. According to the 4 hours chart the NZDUSD pair bounced off the 50-EMA and stayed above the moving averages. The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7350, the support comes in at 0.7300. The MACD indicator was bullish and remained in positive territory. The RSI indicator stayed within the overvalued readings. Trading recommendations The bullish scenario prevailed on Monday. The first bullish target is 0.7350. After breaking the 0.7350 level a further extension to 0.7400 is not ruled out. XAU/USD General overview The yellow metal edged higher following a weaker-than-expected US wage growth numbers which diminished expectations for near-term Fed rate-hike action. Current situation Gold gained additional traction on Monday. Gold spot grew in the Asian session and reached the highest level since November later the day. The price continued developing well above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were flat while the 200-EMA pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1230, the support stands at 1220 dollars per ounce. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI consolidated within the overvalued area. Trading recommendations Sustained break above 1230 region is seen as minimum requirement needed to confirm bullish resumption. In this scenario, buyers may lead prices towards 1235 in the upcoming sessions. Brent General overview Oil priced edged higher. However, its growth was capped by rising US drilling activity and expectations of US imposing new sanctions on Iran. Current situation Brent remained in a familiar consolidation range 56.70 - 57.00 dollars per barrel on Monday. The price was fluctuating between gains and losses during the European session. Sellers took control in the NY session and dragged the price lower. The oil price broke the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The benchmark stayed above its moving averages. 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs kept heading higher in the same chart. The resistance lies at 57.50, the support comes in at 56.50 dollars per barrel. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI consolidated within the overvalued area. Trading recommendations The oil price eyes strong support at 56.50 dollars per barrel. Its break will determine further bearish direction of the benchmark towards the 55.50 level. DAX Current situation The technical picture presented a slightly bearish tone on Monday. Bears seized control and pushed the price lower. The benchmark pushed away from 11700 and broke 11600 ahead of the NY opening. Sellers touched 11500 in the American session. The benchmark remained between the 50 and the 100-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500. MACD traded to the downside. The RSI was within the neutral area. Trading recommendations Should the benchmark loss more ground and advance below the 11500 level, the decline can extend down to 11400. NASDAQ Current situation The bullish structure remained unchanged. The price remained around its recent highs on Monday. The index stayed above 5140 showing little activity during the day. A bout of fresh selling pressure emerged ahead of the American open and moved NASDAQ lower. The index tested 5140 in the NY session. The index bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The price stayed above its moving averages which kept pointing higher in the same chart. The resistance is at 5180, the support comes in at 5140. The MACD indicator was bullish and stayed in a positive territory. RSI oscillator stayed within the overvalued readings and headed north. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bullish. We believe that the firm break above 5180 handle would open 5220 area. We will buy until we see a daily close below 5100. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 [u][b][color=#004000]"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.[/color][/b][/u] [b][color=#0000BF]08.02.2017[/color][/b] [b][u][color=#0000BF]Euro[/color][/u][/b] [b]General overview[/b] Industrial Production in Germany showed poor figures pushing the euro lower. Besides, a broad based dollar recovery weighed on the single European currency. [b]Current situation[/b] The bearish scenario prevailed on Tuesday. The pair was under intense selling pressure the whole day. The euro pushed away from 1.0750 at the daily open and sharply dropped to 1.0700. The handle did not stop sellers who broke it in the early European trades. Bears kept pushing the price lower during the day and tested 1.0650 in the mid-European session. After touching the level the downward impetus lost its strength, the spot had to retreat. The EURUSD pair broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs downwards in the 4 hours chart. The price continued developing well above the 200-EMA afterwards. The moving averages kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650. MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. RSI left the neutral area and headed south. [b]Trading recommendations[/b] We expect to see renewed bearish pressure. As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 1.0650 and 1.0600 en route. [b][u][color=#0000BF]Pound[/color][/u][/b] [b]General overview[/b] The UK published Like-For-Like Retail Sales and Halifax House Prices. Both indices came in well under expectations. Moreover, Brexit concerns also weighed on the major. [b]Current situation[/b] The pound lost ground amid broad dollar's strength on Tuesday. The cable bounced off 1.2500 in the early trades and dropped below 1.2400 during the European trades. Sellers continued moving the price lower post London's open heading towards 1.2300. According to the 4 hours chart the price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs downwards and tested the 200-EMA. The 100-EMA headed higher while the 50-EMA pointed lower and the 200-EMA was neutral in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2400, the support comes in at 1.2300. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI stayed within the oversold readings and headed downwards. [b]Trading recommendations[/b] The price maintained its bearish tone in the 4 hours chart. If the Cable fixates below the support 1.2400, the spot may continue its downward trajectory in the short term. The potential sellers’ target is 1.2300. [b][u][color=#0000BF]Yen[/color][/u][/b] [b]Current situation[/b] The US dollar extended its gains on Tuesday. The US currency found a solid support at 111.50 which rejected the price upwards. The pair slowly grew in the Asian session and accelerated its rally after the European session opening. Buyers continued driving the spot upwards during the day approaching 113.50. The price continued developing well below its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. All the moving averages maintained their bearish slope in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced off the oversold territory and advanced north. [b]Trading recommendations[/b] If bulls retain control over the market, we cannot rule out the chance of breaking the level at 113.00 in the upcoming sessions. [b][u][color=#0000BF]USD/CAD[/color][/u][/b] [b]General overview[/b] Crude oil prices decline added some extra pressure on the Canadian dollar. Moreover, the US dollar strengthening pushed the CAD downwards. [b]Current situation[/b] The USD/CAD pair extended its near-term upward trajectory on Tuesday. The US dollar opened green versus is Canadian counterpart. The spot was slowly growing in the night and reached 1.3120 before Europe open. Fresh buying pressure around the US dollar boosted USD/CAD to fresh highs. The price spiked and reached 1.3190 post-European opening. The hurdle limited its advance holding the major within its region. The price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs upwards in the 4 hours chart. The USD/CAD pair almost reached the 200-EMA which acts as a resistance now. The 50 and 100 EMAs were turning upwards while the 200-EMA pointed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3190, the support comes in at 1.3120. MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI indicator stayed within the overvalued readings favoring a new move higher. [b]Trading recommendations[/b] The bullish momentum is likely to be regained in the short-term. To extend its bullishness the USD/CAD pair needs to fixate above 1.3190. [b][u][color=#0000BF]XAU/USD[/color][/u][/b] [b]General overview[/b] Gold prices gave up their recent gains amid the US dollar recovery. However, the decline appeared to be limited as the uncertainty over the US President Donald Trump's policies supported the demand for the metal. [b]Current situation[/b] Gold stopped its winning streak and showed mild negative bias on Tuesday. The metal gave up its recent gains in the Asian session and retreated a bit towards 1230 afterwards. The 1230 handle slowed sellers' advance holding the gold spot within its region. The 4 hours chart showed that the gold price hovered above its moving averages. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA upwards. The moving averages pointed higher in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1240, the support stands at 1230 dollars per ounce. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI consolidated within the overvalued area. [b]Trading recommendations [/b] The bullish trend remained intact. Our profit-target is at 1240. To ease the current buying pressure the price needs to fixate below 1220 dollars per ounce. [b][u][color=#0000BF]Brent[/color][/u][/b] [b]General overview [/b] The prospects of growing US oil production kept on weighing on black oil. Moreover, investors are still concerned over a global supply glut. [b] Current situation[/b] Brent stalled its consolidative mode in the Asian session and dropped lower on Tuesday. Sellers moved the benchmark lower and tested 55.50 in the European session. Black gold found decent support at the handle and stayed there for a while. The benchmark broke its moving averages downwards in the 4 hours chart. 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs became neutral in the same chart. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI left the neutral area and stayed within the oversold area. [b]Trading recommendations[/b] We believe that a break below the 55.50 level might force the benchmark to resume its downward trajectory towards 54.50 dollars per barrel. [b][u][color=#0000BF]DAX[/color][/u][/b] [b]General overview [/b] European shares edged higher on Tuesday when gains from corporate readings and healthcare sector overwhelmed losses in financial and oil stocks. [b]Current situation[/b] DAX had a positive day on Tuesday. Sellers failed to retake 11500 handle and gave the way to buyers. The price pushed away from the support and rallied to 11600 during the day. The benchmark bounced off the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs turned neutral while the 200-EMA kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500. The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. The RSI was within the oversold area. [b]Trading recommendations[/b] We prefer to stay bullish for now. A recovery above the 11600 level will favor an advance up to the 11700 region. [b][u][color=#0000BF]S&P500[/color][/u][/b] [b]Current situation[/b] The index was in buy mode on Tuesday. Sellers lost its grip above 2280. Buyers fought back control and pushed the benchmark higher. S&P500 grew and erased all its Monday's losses in the European session. The price bounced off the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The index continued developing well above its moving averages. The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs remained bullish in the same chart. The resistance is at 2300, the support comes in at 2280. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of buyers. RSI oscillator stayed within the overvalued readings close and moved higher. [b]Trading recommendations[/b] The bullish scenario prevailed on Tuesday. A sharp breakout above 2300 could spark a further growth towards 2320 in the coming days. [b][i][color=#000000]*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services[/color][/i][/b], [b][color=#0000FF]Alexander Kofman [/color][/b] [url=https://www.fortfs.com/en][/url] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 09.02.2017 Euro General overview The euro maintained its weakness after M. Draghi emphasized the regulator's readiness to increase the current asset purchase program in size or duration. The light calendar and USD dynamics will remain the main drivers in the markets in the near term. Current situation The selling pressure around the European currency remained unchanged on Wednesday. The Asian recovery stalled after touching 1.0700. The price found fresh offers around the hurdle and softened a bit in the late Asian session. The single European currency accelerated its decline in the European morning and tested 1.0650. The level limited sellers’ advance for a while. The price bounced off the 100-EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and the 200-EMAs were bullish, while the 50-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650. The MACD histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI was within the oversold readings and moved south. Trading recommendations The bearish trend remained intact. We would be selling the pair if the price fixates below 1.0650 level. The EURUSD pair may extend its bearish trajectory towards the 1.0600 handle. Pound General overview The pound jumped to fresh weekly highs following K.Forbes' hawkish (BoE’s External MPC Member) comments who hinted that the regulator may raise rates in response to the weaker pound. Current situation The pound bullish spike faded and the price dropped back to 1.2500 in the night. Traders remained equally divided between bulls and bears during the morning hours. The Cable stayed in a tight range around the mentioned handle awaiting for fresh impetus to break higher from the ongoing bullish consolidative phase. The price bounced off the 200-EMA and broke the 100-EMA and tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The spot failed to retake the 50-EMA and rolled back towards the 100-EMA. The 100-EMA pointed higher, the 50-EMA maintained its bearish slope while the 200-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI left the oversold readings and entered the neutral area. Trading recommendations The GBP/USD pair was unable to climb over 1.2500. A move below the level would suggest a resumption of a downward trajectory towards the 1.2400 support. Yen General overview A risk-on sentiment and a fresh demand for the US Treasury bond yields supported the US dollar afloat above recent lows. Besides, traders preferred to stay neutral ahead of this week's meeting between Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and Donald Trump. Current situation The downward structure remained intact on Wednesday. After the recent drop the US dollar managed to recover some ground but failed to advance far away from the 112.00 support region. Fresh bids emerged in an Asian session, prompting a minor-recovery towards 112.50 area. After reaching the 112.50 mark the recovery stalled, the spot remained above the level awaiting for fresh drivers. According to the 1 hour chart the price bounced off the 100-EMA and broke the 50-EMA downwards. All the moving averages kept pointing lower in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI was within the oversold territory close to the neutral area. Trading recommendations The USDJPY pair is under bullish pressure. Any move above 112.50 would increase chances of testing the 113.00 mark. AUD/USD General overview Buying interest around copper supported the Aussie and collaborated to the pair's recovery on Wednesday. In absence of strong drivers, AUD/USD remained at the mercy of broader market risk sentiment. The US Treasury bond yields demand underpinned the spot as well. Current situation The pair maintained its bullish tone on Wednesday. Having found support around 0.7600 the price partly reversed its early losses. The AUD remained in a tight range staying flat below 0.7650 amid consolidative price action during the European hours. The AUD tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The pair stayed above its moving averages during the day. The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7650, the support comes in at 0.7600. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator consolidated within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations The technical picture presents a bullish tone. All eyes are right now at the resistance level 0.7650 A cut through here will turn attention to the 0.7700 level. XAU/USD General overview Political instability in the EU ahead of the French elections, and uncertainty over the US President political actions boosted the demand for the yellow metal. Moreover, fading expectations of Fed rate-hike action in the near-term weighed on US Treasury bond yields supporting the precious metal. Current situation Bulls maintained control over the market on Wednesday. Gold spot found fresh bids around 1230 and managed to erased all Tuesday's losses in the European session. The precious metal grew and refreshed three month highs at 1240 dollars per ounce. The gold price bounced from the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The spot continued developing well above its moving averages during the day. All moving averages were bullish in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1240, the support stands at 1230 dollars per ounce. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI consolidated within the overvalued area. Trading recommendations The bullish scenario prevailed on Wednesday. A break above 1240 hurdle risks a growth towards the resistance at 1250 dollars per ounce. Brent General overview Brent oil prices remained under pressure following the bearish API crude inventory report. Current situation Brent futures stalled their Asian recovery mode and consolidated in a narrow range above 54.50 handle on Wednesday. The 4 hours chart showed that the oil price remained below its moving averages. The 200 and the 100-EMAs were flat while the 50-EMA pointed lower in the same chart. The resistance lies at 55.50, the support comes in at 54.50 dollars per barrel. The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. The RSI was within the oversold area. Trading recommendations The market will probably maintain its recovery pace in the short-term. Once we break above 55.00, we think that the 55.50 mark will be next. DAX Current situation Despite the positive opening the index remained under selling pressure on Wednesday. DAX partly recovered its losses overnight and reached the hurdle at 11600. A fresh selling interest emerged in the late European session pushing the benchmark lower. DAX index stayed between the 100 and the 200-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were flat while the 200-EMA kept pointing higher. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. The RSI was within the oversold area favoring a new move higher. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay bearish for now. A firm break below 11500 handle could trigger fresh weakness of the index for attack at 11450. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street maintained its upbeat tone amid quarterly earnings. Current situation The bullish market structure remained in place on Wednesday. After posting fresh all-times high the index retreated a bit. Sellers pushed the benchmark below 5180. The current rebound should be considered corrective amid some profit taking price action. According to the 4 hours chart the price hovered above its moving averages. The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance is at 5180, the support comes in at 5140. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator stayed within the overvalued readings. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remained bullish. In the scenario where the buyers keep control the index will advance to 5220 and 5260 en route. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 10.02.2017 Euro General overview The US dollar trades against the euro in a narrow range as the political and economic future of the United States became more uncertain. Inventors prefer risk-off sentiment. The market ignored the weak export and trade balance data in Germany. Moreover, Evans and Bullard’s reports (the FOMC representatives) will be under the spotlight later the day. Current situation The price was positive during the night trades. Having found fresh bids around 1.0670 the spot turned bullish and rallied to 1.0700. However, a bid tone sharply weakened in the European session. The spot failed to retake 1.0700 and retreated. The 4 hours chart showed that the price continued staying between the 100 and the 200-EMAs during the day. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were neutral while the 200-EMA pointed higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0700, the support comes in at 1.0650. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI left the oversold readings and headed north. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remained bearish. Sellers need to regain 1.0650 to extend gains. A break below the handle will open the way to 1.0600. A move towards 1.0750 and break above the hurdle will neutralize the current downward scenario. Pound General overview British Parliament approved bill without changes to start Brexit (494 votes to 122). The British PM will soon start parting with the European Union. The decision boosted the sterling's growth. Meanwhile, political uncertainty in Europe also contributed the cable growth. Investors’ attention now turns to the Mark Carney’ speech in the evening. Current situation The pound maintained its bullish bias in the early trades on Thursday. A fresh buying pressure around 1.2500 pushed the spot upwards. The Cable rallied and reached 1.2600 post London's open. However, the rally seems to have run out of steam ahead of the NY opening. The major slowed down and slightly moved back. The price bounced off the 100-EMA and broke the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The majors stayed above their moving averages afterwards. The 100-EMA was bullish, the 50 and the 200-EMAs remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2600, the support comes in at 1.2500. MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. RSI left the neutral area and moved north. Trading recommendations In a wider perspective the GBPUSD pair could gain bullish momentum, if it recovers above the 1.2600 area, the spot will probably maintain bulls in the driver's seat towards the 1.2700 level. Yen General overview The yen trades vs. the US dollar in a narrow range due to the meeting between Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The Japanese yen seem to benefit from the growing political uncertainty in Europe. Current situation The USD/JPY pair remained under pressure on Thursday. The price was flat out hovering above 112.00 during the morning hours. The rise in the dollar demand pushed the majors upwards post-European open. The price continued developing well below its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs kept pointing lower in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the oversold territory and entered the neutral area. Trading recommendations We expect an upward correction which will start as soon as the pair rises above 112.50. The price may extend its rise towards the 113.00 area. NZD/USD General overview The New Zealand dollar significantly fell following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision to leave the rate unchanged at 1.75 percent. Current situation The NZD/USD pair maintained its offered tone on Thursday. The kiwi found a solid support at 0.7200 in the night. The price faced upward rejection after touching the level and slightly rolled back staying close to three-week lows. A bout of NZD weakness pressured the spot ahead of the NY opening. The NZD/USD struggled to break below 0.7200 in the second part of the day. According to the 4 hours chart the price broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs downwards. The 50 and the100-EMAs were neutral while the 200-EMA kept pointing higher in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7250, the support comes in at 0.7200. MACD entered the negative area. If MACD remains in the negative territory, sellers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI indicator left the neutral territory and headed south. Trading recommendations The NZDUSD pair eyes strong support at 0.7200 level now. However, the major may change its trajectory to bullish. The potential buyers’ targets are 0.7250 and 0.7300. XAU/USD General overview Gold prices moderately strengthened, staying near the 3-month high due to the growing concerns around the political situation in Europe and the US economic uncertainty. Current situation The trend is clearly bullish for now. The price negated night losses and refreshed its highs in the European session. The XAU/USD bounced from 1240 and jumped to 1243 in the early European trades. After touching the mark a buying pressure ran out of steam and the spot sharply dropped below 1240 dollars per ounce. The XAU/USD pair remained in an upward channel. Meanwhile, the yellow metal tested its lower boundary ahead of the Wall Street opening. The gold price hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1240, the support stands at 1230 dollars per ounce. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI indicator left the overvalued area. Trading recommendations A bullish tone prevails in the 4 hours chart. After a close above 1240 the gold price may extend its bullishness to 1250. However, overbought daily studies point to a correction in the short term. In this potential scenario sellers may drive the precious metal to 1230 dollars per ounce. Brent General overview Unexpected drop in US inventories supported oil prices, but the remaining supply glut limited its further growth. Current situation Brent kept the upbeat tone unchanged on Thursday. Fresh bids around 55.50 fueled the upward bias pushing the benchmark higher. Traders broke 55.50 post-European open. The advance lost upward momentum around 56.00. After posting a daily high black gold rolled back. The benchmark failed to retake the 50-EMA and bounced off it downwards in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages were flat in the same chart. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI left the oversold area and moved upwards. Trading recommendations Bulls continue to control the market. We recommend placing buy orders if the benchmark stays above 55.50 dollars per barrel. The potential buyers’ target is 56.50. A failure here will indicate that our bullish expectation is wrong. DAX General overview European stocks opened green on Thursday. The market has been growing the third session in a row. Societe Generale and the Total shares were getting stronger following their quarterly earnings. Current situation The index gapped higher at the open on Thursday. The bears appeared to have loosened grip allowing the benchmark to reverse its previous losses. DAX grew and tested 11600 in the American session. The 1 hour chart showed that the benchmark broke the 100-EMA and tested the 200-EMA. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were bearish while the 200-EMA was flat in the same chart. The resistance exists at 11600, the support stands at 11500. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. The RSI left the oversold area and entered the neutral territory. Trading recommendations We believe that the index might extend its recovery towards 11600 and 11700 levels. S&P500 General overview Wall Street edged higher amid oil prices rally. All eyes are on earnings reports. Current situation The index opened green on Thursday. S&P500 slightly grew in the Asian session. The benchmark maintained its bid tone during the European hours trending towards 2300. The price bounced off the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. The index stayed above its moving averages during the day. The 50-EMA was flat while the 100 and the 200-EMAs maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance is at 2300, the support comes in at 2280. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI moved upwards. Trading recommendations The bullish trend remained intact. A break above 2300 may suggest a further growth towards 2320 area. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 13.02.2017 Euro General overview French Non-Farm Payrolls showed strong data, however, the euro ignored these figures. The common European currency is under pressure amid growing political risks related to the Presidential elections in France. The upcoming elections in Germany. Netherlands and Italy give additional pressure on the euro. Moreover, the US Dollar price-dynamics is underpinned by Trump upcoming tax reform plan. Current situation The US dollar kept getting stronger on Friday. After a night light recovery the euro kept losing its value in the European session. Traders broke the level 1.0650 and continued pushing the price lower in the NY session. The EURUSD pair broke the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs remained bearish-neutral while the 200-EMA was bullish in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600. The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI left the neutral territory and stayed within the oversold readings favoring a new move lower. Trading recommendations As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 1.0600. A close below the mentioned support could additional weakness towards 1.0550. Pound General overview The UK Industrial Production came in above expectation and provided a temporal support to the pound. However, a large US dollar recovery across the board made the Cable retreat. Current situation The pound remained neutral during the Asian hours on Friday. The spot stayed around 1.2500 flirting with the handle to go lower. Traders managed to break the level in the late European session and drove the spot towards 1.2450. According to the 4 hours chart the price broke the 50 and 100 EMAs downwards. The 50 and the 200-EMAs were neutral, while the 100-EMA kept pointing higher in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI entered the neutral territory and stayed there. Trading recommendations Any move below 1.2500 would increase chances of testing the 1.2400 handle. Yen General overview The US dollar strengthened after Trump agreed to support “One China” policy. Investors ignored upbeat Japanese Domestic Corporate Goods Price index. Current situation The US dollar recovery stalled around 114.00. Buyers did not find any reason to lift the price higher. The pair turned around in the European session and slightly rolled back. The USDJPY pair broke the 50 and the 100-EMAs upwards in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were neutral and the 200-EMA maintained its bearish slope in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00. MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains within the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. RSI was within the overvalued readings. Trading recommendations We expect to see renewed bullish pressure in the short-term. The next level to focus on is 113.00. USD/CAD Current situation The pair was neutral during the night hours on Friday. The Asian recovery stalled above 1.3120. The US dollar tried to extend its gains, however, its attempts were weak. A fresh selling pressure weighed on the spot and returned the price below 1.3120 in the second part of the day. The US dollar lost ground and almost reached 1.3050 ahead of the NY opening. The 4 hours chart showed that the price bounced off the 50-EMA downwards and tested the 100-EMA. The USDCAD pair stayed below the 100 and the 200-EMAs during the day. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were neutral while the 200-EMA kept pointing lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 1.3120, the support comes in at 1.3050. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI stayed within the overvalued readings close to the neutral territory. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay bearish for now. We will place sell orders if the USDCAD pair stays below the 1.3120 level. The next sellers’ target is 1.3050. XAU/USD General overview Gold remained under pressure after Trump’s tax announcement. Moreover, the upbeat Chinese Trade Balance added extra pressure. Current situation Sellers met a barrier in the 1220 region. Bears were unable to drive the Forex pair lower and retreated giving the way to buyers. The price bounced off 1220 dollars per ounce and reversed some of its recent losses. The gold price bounced from the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The spot continued developing well above its moving averages during the day. The 50 and 200-EMAs were bullish while the 100-EMA remained neutral in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1230, the support stands at 1220 dollars per ounce. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI consolidated within the oversold area. Trading recommendations The bullish scenario prevailed on Friday. A close above 1230 will trigger fresh gains towards 1240 dollars per ounce. Brent General overview The upbeat Chinese oil imports data supported oil prices. OPEC and non-OPEC members production decline added additional impetus to black gold. Current situation Brent maintained its bullish sentiment on Friday. The price bounced off 55.50 dollars per barrel at the daily open and climbed above 56.50 in the NY session. However, Brent lost some vigour above 56.50 and fell on profit-taking action. The 4 hours chart showed that the benchmark broke its moving averages upwards. The moving averages remained mixed in the same chart. The resistance lies at 57.50, the support comes in at 56.50 dollars per barrel. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI left the neutral area and moved upwards. Trading recommendations The technical picture presents a slightly bullish tone. Brent oil prices now seem to be heading towards its immediate support near 55.50. To return control buyers need to retake 56.50 dollars per barrel. DAX Current situation Despite the positive sentiment at the open the index turned bearish during the late European hours. DAX gapped upwards at the daily open and briefly continued its upward trajectory. The price tested 11700 and moved back immediately after the level test. Sellers seized control and pushed the benchmark downwards later the day. The index broke the 100 and the 50-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The benchmark stayed above its moving averages during the day. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were flat while the 200-EMA was bullish in the same chart. The resistance exists at 11700, the support stands at 11600. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. The RSI left the neutral area and headed north. Trading recommendations We prefer the scenario where the buyers keep control over the index. We expect further upwards moving towards the 11800 level. NASDAQ General overview Wall Street opened in green on Friday after D. Trump said that he will start a tax reform plan in the coming weeks. Current situation Bulls gave up their recent gains and slightly retreated on Friday. The price rolled back below its immediate support - 5220 and stayed there flat the whole day. The benchmark hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance is at 5220, the support comes in at 5180. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI oscillator stayed within the overvalued readings favoring a new move higher. Trading recommendations We await a break above 5220 level to trigger another leg higher towards the 5260 hurdle. The next potential buyers’ target is 5300. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted February 13, 2017 Author Share Posted February 13, 2017 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis. 14.02.2017 Euro General overview The euro reversed a minor part of its losses following the results of Abe-Trump meeting. Meanwhile, dispute about helping Greece weighing on the euro. All eyes are on Germany GDP now where analysts predict the growth in the 4-th quarter. Current situation The EUR/USD pair preserved its undertone on Monday. The price remained in a descending channel. The euro found a solid support at 1.0600 and bounced off the level at the daily open. The spot approached the upper limit of a downward channel post-European open. The euro found fresh offers ahead of the NY opening and extended its losses afterwards. The major failed to retake the 200-EMA and pushed away from it in the 4 hours chart. The spot stayed below its moving averages during the day. The 50-EMA crossed the 100-EMA downwards. The 100 and the 200-EMAs pointed higher while the 50-EMA pointed lower in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0650, the support comes in at 1.0600. MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI indicator consolidated within oversold readings. Trading recommendations From a wider perspective, the euro is expected to remain exposed to further downside risks. The technical picture presents a mild bearish tone. A failure to hold above 1.0650 level risks a slide to 1.0600 mark and 1.0550 mark en route. Pound General overview The USD and UK's economic calendars were empty. The trading was influenced by the dollar fluctuations and a risk-on tendency. The market will be focused on UK inflation report. Traders expect to see a growth in January comparing to the previous year. Current situation The price turned bullish in the early trades on Monday. The pair met extra buying pressure at the weekly opening. Buyers pushed the price upwards and broke 1.2500 in the Asian trades. The bears slightly loosened their grip in the early European trades. However, a fresh selling interest returned the cable below 1.2500 in the American session. The price bounced off the 100 and the 50-EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The major stayed around the 50 and the 100-EMAs during the day. The 50-EMA headed lower while the 100 and the 200-EMAs maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400. MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI indicator remained within the neutral territory. Trading recommendations The GBPUSD pair seems unable to climb above 1.2500. A downtrend will start as soon, as the pair drops below the support level 1.2400. Should that level break down the next bearish target is 1.2300. Yen General overview The dollar rose against the yen following a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The Japanese GDP came in slightly below expectations adding some extra pressure to the yen. Current situation The Japanese currency maintained control of the flows. Despite the positive opening the bid tone did not last long. Buyers tested the level 114.00 in the Asian session but failed to reclaim it. Sellers fought back control and pushed the spot to the opening prices in the early European session. According to the 4 hours chart the USDJPY continued developing well above the 50 and the 100-EMAs. The 50 and the 100-EMAs remained neutral while the 200-EMA kept pointing lower in the same chart. The resistance is highlighted at 114.00, the support comes in at 113.00. The MACD indicator is bullish and is still in positive territory. RSI was within the overvalued readings. Trading recommendations A close above 114.00 level may generate fresh bullish signal for further advance, which could extend to 115.00 hurdle. AUD/USD Current situation The AUD failed to continue its upward trajectory when it met a solid barrier at 0.7700. The buying momentum eased and the spot retreated to 0.7650 on Monday. The AUDUSD pair tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The spot remained above its moving averages. The moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7700, the support comes in at 0.7650. MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains within the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI left the neutral area and stayed within the overvalued readings. Trading recommendations Inability to break above 0.7700 might force the AUD/USD pair to resume its downward trajectory towards 0.7600 and 0.7550 levels. XAU/USD General overview Gold prices weakened on Monday following Trump's last actions which reduced investors’ fears regarding his controversial policies. All eyes are on Janet Yellen's speech on Tuesday. Current situation The bullish spike lost its legs a few pips below 1240 dollars per ounce. Buyers failed to extend its recovery and moved back. The precious metal returned to 1230 and stayed within its region ahead of the US session opening. A fresh selling interest emerged in the American session and drove the metal towards 1220. The 4 hours chart showed that the gold price bounced off the 50-EMA upwards. All moving averages maintained their bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance exists at 1230, the support stands at 1220 dollars per ounce. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI consolidated within the neutral area. Trading recommendations We prefer to stay bearish for now. The 1220 level seems to be the next probable bearish target. The price may extend its decline towards the 1210 area in the coming sessions. Brent General overview Oil prices edged lower on Monday on supply concerns. The price weakened despite the recent output falls. We believe Brent lost ground amid increased drilling activity in the U.S. Current situation A consolidation phase did not last too long. After staying a while above 56.50 dollars per barrel the price dropped back below the level during the European morning trades. Sellers managed to push the benchmark to 56.00 first. The ask sentiment remained intact in the second part of the day. Brent kept losing its ground in the North American session. Brent oil price broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100 and 200 EMAs in the NY session. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel. MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains within the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI left the overvalued readings heading south. Trading recommendations The benchmark needs to consolidate below the 56.00 zone to ease the recnet bullish pressure. As the most probable scenario we expect further easing of the oil price towards the 55.50 mark. DAX General overview European stocks edged higher on Monday amid higher copper prices. Energy stocks and financial stocks traded mixed on Monday. Current situation The market looks very bullish now. Buyers managed to break the 11700 level and pushed the price higher in the late European session. DAX extended its bullishness during the day and reached 11800 at the NY opening. The index remained above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. The 50 and the 100-EMAs were flat while the 200-EMA maintained its bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance exists at 11800, the support stands at 11700. MACD entered the positive area. If MACD remains within the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. The RSI consolidated within the overvalued territory. Trading recommendations We expect to see renewed bullish pressure. If the bullish tone persists we expect a breakout of the level 11800. S&P500 General overview Risk-on mode coupled with last D.Trump's actions supported Wall Street sending the stocks to fresh all-time highs. Current situation S&P500 held a bullish tone on Monday. The price retreated from its recent highs but remained in its upward channel in the Asian session. The lower limit of the channel stopped sellers and rejected the price during the European trades. The benchmark had reversed a large part of its losses by the NY opening. The price hovered above its moving averages in the 4 hours chart. All the moving averages remained bullish in the same chart. The resistance is at 2320, the support comes in at 2300. The MACD histogram grew which indicates buyers’ strength. RSI oscillator stayed within the overvalued readings favoring a new move higher. Trading recommendations The overall outlook remains bullish, for rise towards 2340 resistance area. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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