"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

28.04.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The dollar remained stable to other majors on Wednesday preparing for the final Federal Reserve System political statements. Investors focused on the outcome of the political meeting waiting for any hints regarding the interest rates change in June. The Fed kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.5%.

 

Consumer Confidence in Germany significantly improved (9.7 versus the previous 9.4). Consumers believe that the German economy will recover in the coming months and expect its moderate recovery. The pair euro/dollar slightly strengthened.

 

The pound stopped the growth when the market found out that the UK economy had grown by 0.4%, in line with economists' expectations, but slowed to 0.6% in the previous quarter. The UK economic growth in the first quarter was 2.1%, (on an annual terms) similar to the previous quarter and slightly higher than the expected 2.0%. The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a decrease.

 

The pair dollar/yen increased by end of the trades.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

In the bond market the government bonds yield differential (the US and Germany) decreased, which was a "bullish" factor for the euro. The commodity market showed an upward trend that traditionally had a negative impact on the dollar as commodity prices are in the US currency. The US Fed meeting was the focus of the market attention.

 

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

 

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

We may expect the fall towards 1.1260 further on we expect a downward movement to 1.1150.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The UK Gross Domestic Product rose up by 0.4%, as expected. The UK economy showed a growth of 0.6%. In the Bonds Market, the 10-year UK government bonds yield increased which slightly supported the demand for the pound.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4650.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We expect the 1.4480 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.4400.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

All Industry Activity Index (m / m) decreased for the last month (-1.2% vs. the forecast of -1.3%). These data were revised downward to 2.0%. Experts expected the index to decline to 1.3% over the past month. The trading activity was low as traders waited for the Fed and the Bank of Japan meeting outcome.

 

The price is finding the first support at 110.60, the next one is at 109.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 111.40, the next one is at 112.20.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The buyers need to break above 111.40 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 112.20 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

29.04.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The Eurozone published the inflation report for Germany (0,2%) and Economic Sentiment Indicator (103,9). In addition, Germany published Unemployment Rate which remained unchanged at 6.2% (in line with the forecasts). Unemployment Change showed -16K.

 

The UK published Nationwide Housing Prices for April (on a monthly and annual basis). The index showed 0.2% m/m after the previous 0.8% m/m.

 

The US GDP for the 1st quarter became the main event of the day (the 1st assessment). The index came in at 0.5%, the forecast was 0.7% vs. 1.4% in the 4th quarter. Initial Jobless Claims showed 257K (the previous value was 247K, the forecast was 252K).

 

The Bank of Japan did not change its monetary policy and did not extend the stimulus rate. The Central Bank is still focused on the increase in the monetary base by 80 trillion yen per year, the deposit rate remained unchanged at - 0.1%.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

Unemployment Change in Germany showed -16K, the previous value was -3K. Experts had expected a growth by 4K. Unemployment rate remained at the same level of 6,2%, which corresponded to the forecasts.

 

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1260 soon. The next target will be 1.1150.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

Nationwide Housing Prices in the UK amounted to 0,2% compared with 0,8% in the previous month. Experts had expected a growth by 0,4%. The US published the GDP report for April. The data came in at the level of 0,5% q/q (the previous value was 1,4% q/q, the forecast was 0,7% q/q).

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The buyers need to break above 1.4670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4760 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

The yen grew when the Bank of Japan did not change the interest rates, as expected. The regulator decided not to apply any further negative interest rates. Industrial Production for March rose by 3.6% on monthly basis, while we expected a growth by 2.9%. Retail Sales fell by 1.1% year on year, although a drop of 1.5 % was expected.

 

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

If the price fixates below the support 107.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 106.60.

 

 

Franc

 

General overview

 

The USA GDP for the 1st quarter was the main event of Thursday. The release came in at the level of 0,5% q/q (the forecast was 0,7% q/q, the previous value was 1,4% q/q). Initial Jobless Claims number was the focus of our attention as well. The data came in at the level of 257K (the forecast was 260K the previous value was 247K). 

 

The first support lies at 0.9660 and then at 0.9580. The first resistance stands at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9580. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500.

 

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

02.05.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

Last Friday was filled with events. The US published Personal Consumption Expenditures (at the forecasted level of 0,1%), Personal Spending (0,1% against the forecasted 0,2%), and Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (77,6 against the forecasted 80,2)

 

Despite the strong economic growth in the region, the euro lost some gains against the US dollar, amid the weak inflation report in the Eurozone. The index fell to -0.2% y/y in April after the previous 0.0% y/y. The Eurozone GDP grew both in annual and quarterly terms in April: 1.6% after 1.6% before and 0.6% after the previous 0.3%.

 

The pound stopped growing against the US dollar. The sterling fell after the ambiguous economic data from three-month high. The UK published Net Lending to Individuals and Mortgage Approvals reports (1,883B, 71.360K respectively).

 

There was a day off in Japan. The USD/JPY pair continued falling after the Bank of Japan decision to maintain its current monetary policy. That was contrary to the market expectations, which expected a further easing.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

According to the Eurostat the Consumer Price index fell by 0.2% in the Eurozone this month. The market expected a decline of 0.1%, after a zero growth in March. Gross Domestic Product grew by 0.6% in the first quarter (forecast 0.4%, previous 0.3%).

 

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1450. After breaking 1.1450 the buyers may go to 1.1550.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The UK government bonds yields grew which increased the attractiveness of the British assets. However, the Britain published a number of weak reports: Net Lending to Individuals increased by 9.3B in March, the expected data was £5.0B.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will go to the level of 1.4670. We do not exclude the falls to 1.4560.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

The Bank of Japan did not increase the current easing program, and investors began to leave the Japanese market in panic. The pair dollar/yen sharply fell. The dollar fell when the Fed hinted that it might postpone the rates hike. Last Friday Japan had the day off. Meanwhile, the United States published Core Personal Consumption Expenditure for March (the previous value was 0.2% m/m, the data came in at the forecasted level 0.1% m/m).

 

The price is finding the first support at 106.60, the next one is at 105.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.40, the next one is at 108.20.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

After the support level of 106.60 breakthrough down the way to the support 105.80 will be opened.

 

 

Franc

 

General overview

 

Thomas Jordan (the National Bank of Switzerland Governor) gave a speech last Friday. Switzerland published KOF Leading Indicator (102.7 vs. the forecast 102.8). The USA Personal Income for March came in at 0.4%, Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April showed 89.0 vs. the forecast 90.0.

 

The first support lies at 0.9580 and then at 0.9500. The first resistance stands at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9750.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9580. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

03.05.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The dollar fell from eight-month lows against the other major currencies. The dollar was under pressure after the political decisions of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve System. The event calendar was empty yesterday amid the Labor Day celebration. According to William Dudley (the New York Fed Governor) the Fed should have more powers to provide emergency financial support for investment firms in case of liquidity problems.

 

The EUR/USD set new session highs after Manufacturing PMI report in the Eurozone and Germany. The Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone came in at 51.7. Manufacturing PMI in Germany showed 51.8. Mario Draghi gave a speech at the Asian Development Bank conference in Asia. According to him there is no alternative to the soft monetary policy until we see positive prospects of the world economy.

 

In Britain, the markets did not work amid Early May celebration.

 

On Monday, the yen rose to new 18-month highs. The dollar fell when the market found out that the Japanese regulator would not intervene the foreign exchange market to weaken the national currency. Nikkei Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.2 versus the previous value of 48.0.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

Manufacturing PMI in Germany decreased contrary to our expectations. According to Markit Research Group the indicator showed 51.8 compared with 51.9 in the previous month (seasonally corrected). Experts expected the index at the previous level of 51.9.

 

The first support lies at 1.1450 and then at 1.1350. The first resistance stands at 1.1550, the next one is at 1.1650.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1550 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1650.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

According to the international rating agency S&P, if the UK leaves the EU alliance it might loss its AAA rating. The GBP/USD grew amid the general dollar weakness and speculation that the United Kingdom will remain within the EU. The UK market was closed yesterday amid Early May celebration.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4560. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4880.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4760 and 1.4880.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

The USA Manufacturing PMI for April rose to 51.8. Traders expected the index to decrease to 51 versus 51.5 in March. Manufacturing PMI in Japan exceeded our expectations and rose to 48.2 vs. the forecast of 48.0.

 

The price is finding the first support at 105.80, the next one is at 105.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.60, the next one is at 107.40.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will go to 105.80 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 105.00. We do not exclude the upward bounce to 107.70.

 

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

04.05.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The USA published some minor reports: ISM New York and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism indices (48,7 against the forecasted 46,6). We single out only one news that might be interesting: Dennis Lockhart’s speech (the Fed representative). According to Lockhart the price strengthening can be seen right now, but it is too early to decide whether this is sufficient to hike the rate. The decision regarding the rate hike will be taken at the next meeting in June.

 

Producer Price Index in Eurozone for March showed -4.2% (the forecast was -4.3%, the previous value was -4.2%). The index rose for the first time this the year. That is a signal that the inflation is unlikely to fall in the coming months. 

 

On Tuesday, the pound decreased from its four months high when the UK manufacturing activity fell in April for the first time over the past three years (49.2 from 51.0 in March, vs the forecasted 51.2). The published index increased concerns about the prospects for growth in the second quarter.

 

Bank of Japan did not work on Tuesday amid the celebration of the Constitution Day.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The Eurozone did not publish any interesting reports on Tuesday. Producer Price index (PPI) for the last month rose more than expected (0.3% vs the forecast 0.1%). According to the report, it was 0.3% compared with -0.7% in the previous month. Experts had expected a growth rate by 0.1%. The devaluation of the Chinese yuan supported the euro as well. By the end of the trades the euro fell.

 

The first support lies at 1.1450 and then at 1.1350. The first resistance stands at 1.1550, the next one is at 1.1650.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1550 and 1.1650.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

Markit Manufacturing PMI in the UK weakened to 49.2 in April, falling to its lowest level since February 2013. This was lower than the revised value of 50.7 in March and weaker than economists' estimate of 51.2. Manufacturing remains one of the most volatile sectors of the economy, and continues to face challenges: weak demand in the Asian markets and the weakening of the euro area.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4670.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.4480. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.4400.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

Yesterday Japanese banks were closed; the country celebrated a national holiday - Constitution Day. This day off turned traders’ attention to the American news flow where the Fed representatives William Dudley gave his speech. According to Williams he agrees with the decision not to raise the interest rates this year. He also expects that the United States will show a growth of 2% this year.

 

The price is finding the first support at 105.80, the next one is at 105.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.60, the next one is at 107.40.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The upward movement potential targets are 106.60 and 107.40. If the price falls it will get to 105.80 and 105.00.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

05.05.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The dollar managed to recover when traders started to take profits before Non-Farm release. The USA published ADP Employment Change (156K vs. the forecast 196K). Non-Manufacturing PMI from ISM came in at 55.7 vs. the forecast of 54.7. 

 

The latest Eurozone data showed a strong production growth in April (Markit Composite PMI 53.0, in the line with the expectations).

 

The British pound decreased on Wednesday and the pair lost more than 200 points. PMI Construction in the UK Britain fell in April to 52.0 (three-year low) from the previous 54.2. The index fell even though the general business activity index is in the “green zone”.

 

The USD/JPY is still low volatile amid the day off in Japan.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

Retail sales in the Eurozone fell after three months of growth (Retail sales -0.5% m/m in March, vs. expectation 0.1% vs. +0.3% m/m in February). Services PMI decreased contrary to expectations. (53.1 vs. previous 53.2). Experts expected the index to remain at 53.2.

 

The first support lies at 1.1450 and then at 1.1350. The first resistance stands at 1.1550, the next one is at 1.1650.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

We expect the 1.1550 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1650.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

PMI Construction in the UK fell last month to 52.0 (seasonally corrected) from 54.2 in March. Economists forecasted a decline to 54.0. The USA published Markit Services PMI (52.8 vs. expectation 52.1) and ADP Employment Change report (156K vs. forecast 196K).

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4670.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4400, the next one is 1.4320. We do not exclude the growth to 1.4560 and 1.4670.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

The pair retreated from 18 months maximum after a strong rally of the Japanese currency. The dynamics of the dollar against the yen may be volatile the next few days until Japanese traders return from the holidays. The yen still receives some support after the Bank of Japan decision to leave its monetary policy unchanged.

 

The price is finding the first support at 106.60, the next one is at 105.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.40, the next one is at 108.20.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

We recommend going short with the first target – 106.60. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 105.80.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

06.05.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The USA statistics was the focus of our attention yesterday (Initial Jobless Claims 274K vs forecast 260K). Today we expect Non-Farm release.

 

Europe celebrated the Ascension Day and many European Central Banks did not work. Despite the day off the market was volatile and the pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD decreased.

 

The UK published Services PMI that fell more than expected (52.3 vs. expectations 53.5).

 

Friday is the first working day in Japan after the long holidays. We expect a sharp growth of the yen. Even now, when the US stock market decreased, the USD/JPY showed a growth.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

According to the European Central Bank the euro area continued its recovery, still downward risks remained. No important news was published amid the Ascension Day celebration in Europe.

 

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

After the support level of 1.1350 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1260 will be opened.

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The pound is expected to remain under pressure. Service PMI showed a decrease (52.3 vs. forecast 53.5). According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number grew to 274K last week.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, forming a “Dead Cross”.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4400 and 1.4320.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

Japan celebrated Children's Day and its markets were closed. Services PMI in China by Caixin was the focus of investors' attention (51.8 vs. expectations 52.6).

 

The price is finding the first support at 106.60, the next one is at 105.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.40, the next one is at 108.20.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

We expect the 108.20 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 109.00.

 

Franc

 

General overview

 

Switzerland celebrated Feast of the Ascension; its markets were closed. Initial Jobless Claims were under focus yesterday (274K vs. expectations 260K).

 

The price is finding the first support at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9580. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement, forming a “Golden Cross”.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850.

 

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

09.05.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

Last week the US Federal Reserve Bank did not exclude the possibility of raising the interest rate at next meeting in June. The US labor reports were last week key events. The USA published Non-Farm (160K vs. expectations 202K). Unemployment Rate remained at the same level 5%.

 

No important news was published in the Eurozone and the UK. The pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD decreased by the end of the trades.

 

The US dollar rose against the yen before the labor market reports from the United States. According to the latest report, Japanese service sector activity declined in April suggesting that the country economy slowed down.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

Industrial production in Spain slightly supported the euro last Friday (2.8% vs. forecast 1.7%). Meanwhile, the Fed rate expectations are too pessimistic and the ECB policy does not respond completely to the current economic situation. The USA published Non-Farm (160K vs. expectations 202K).

 

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

 

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1350 soon, the next target will be the level of 1.1260.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The US newsflow attracted traders’ attention amid an empty macroeconomic calendar in Britain. Non-Farm Payroll became the main event of the week (160K vs. forecast 202K). The unemployment rate remained at the same place as expected.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

After the support level of 1.4400 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4320 will be opened.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

Japan published Monetary Base report (26.8% vs. expectations 29.3%), Service PMI from the Nikkei/Markit (49,3 vs. expectations 50,0). Meanwhile, April unemployment data in the US will allow us to see whether the US economy is strong enough to cope with another interest rates rise. The unemployment rate remained at the same place as expected.

 

The price is finding the first support at 106.60, the next one is at 105.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.40, the next one is at 108.20.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 107.40 and 108.20.

 

 

Franc

 

General overview

The Swiss National Bank published the Foreign Currency Reserves report for April. (588B vs. previous 576B). The NSHB spoke of its willingness to intervene in the currency market as one of the policy instruments.

 

The price is finding the first support at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9580. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850.

 

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

10.05.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

William Dudley’s speech (the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York) supported the dollar. According to William Dudley the regulator plans to hike the rate twice this year even though the number of new jobs created in the United States in April has been the lowest in the past seven months. The USA published minor economic data on Monday.

 

The main drivers for the dollar growth were: new rumors and expectations about the US interest rates increase in the summer, fears of the referendum results in Britain in June and cyclical factors. Meanwhile, the data published in the Eurozone on Monday, showed that the investors’ and analysts’ sentiment had been improved somewhat in May, but concerns about the global economic outlook continued to pressure the market. The Eurogroup decided to give Greece a new tranche in the next few weeks.

 

Strengthening of the dollar continued to pressure the pound.

 

According to Taro Aso (the Japanese Finance Minister) Tokyo is ready to intervene in the market if excessive dynamics of the yen will be able to influence the trade statistics and economic indicators. Earlier the yen generally strengthened after the Bank of Japan refrained from implementing fresh easing measures following the results of the April policy meeting, contrary to market expectations.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

European stock markets opened in the green zone. Investors were inclined to risk slowing down the growth of the single European currency. According to the Ministry of the Economy, Factory Orders in Germany strengthened in March due to the increased demand from countries outside the Eurozone (1.9% vs. expectations 0.7%). The figures for February were revised to -0.8% from -1.2%. Still the growth was short-term and the pair decreased be the end of trades.

 

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

 

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.1350. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.1260.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

House Prices from Halifax fell more than expected last month (0.8% compared with 2.2% in the previous month). These data were revised downward from 2.6%. Experts expected the index to decline by 0.4% over the past month.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

If the price fixates below the support 1.4320, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4240.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

Japanese Finance Ministry announced on Monday that the regulator was ready to implement an intervention if the yen sharply grow in price. Previously, many economists doubt the seriousness of the Ministry of Finance of Japan because of America's negative position with respect to direct intervention by the BoJ.

 

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The buyers need to break above 109.00 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 109.80 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

11.05.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The calendar of economic events revived the dynamics of the market on Tuesday. The US published Job Openings (5.757M vs. forecast 5.431M).

 

The single currency slightly rose against the dollar. The euro area published Industrial Production in Germany in March fell more than expected (-1,3% vs. expectations -0,2%), but exports showed a rapid growth (1,9% vs. expectations -0,1%).

 

The United Kingdom showed Trade Balance that supported the pound. Mark Carney (the Bank of England Governor) warned commercial banks and other financial institutions about a possible rate cut if the UK leaves the European Union.

 

The yen fell after the Minister of Finance speech on Monday. According to Aso the regulator is ready to intervene if the yen keeps growing. According to Japan Minister of Economy Nobuteru Ishihara he is closely watching the financial markets after the rally of the yen last week.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

Germany published weak Industrial Production data for April which pressured the euro. (-1,3% vs. expectations -0,2%). In the Bonds markets, the 10-year government bonds yield in Germany decreased that also played into the hands of "bears".

 

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1350 and 1.1260.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

Goods Trade Balance in the UK rose more than expected for the last month, supporting the pound. This indicator (seasonally corrected) showed -11.20B vs. forecast -11.30B. The March data was revised from -11.96В to -11.43В. However, the oil reduction kept putting pressure on the pair GBP/USD. The new oil growth let the pair to grow still it decreased by the end of trades.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4400 soon, the next target will be 1.4320.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

No important news was published in Japan. In the Bonds market government bond yields differential decreased (the United States and Japan) which reduced the attractiveness of US he assets. Meanwhile, leading stock indicators in the USA and Europe closed in the "green zone" which traditionally put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency.

 

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 109.80, the next one is 110.60.

 

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

12.05.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The major pairs corrected against the US dollar yesterday. The EU did not publish anything important and the market volatile was low. The British statistics was not able to impact the market through the main cross-pair euro/pound and all trades were calm and peaceful.

 

The lack of drivers calmed the UK market. Still the upcoming referendum may become one of the drives in the near future. According to Michael Sanders (the Bank of England Monetary Committee representative) if Britain votes for the exit from the EU, the Central Bank will be forced to raise the rates to 3.5% by the end of 2017, as a way out of the EU union will trigger the collapse of the pound and will increase the inflation.

 

On Wednesday, the dollar fell against the yen, as investors took profits. This was after the recent rally reaching the two-week highs and the Japanese statements about its readiness for an intervention. However, many investors expect that Japan will stay away from any action to weaken the yen before the G7 meeting.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

In the Bonds markets, the German 10-year government bonds yield reduced which decreased the attractiveness of the European assets. The political component of the day was the speech of Nowotny (the ECB member). According to Nowotny it is desirable to keep the issue of national bonds in alongside with Eurobonds.

 

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The potential rebound down targets are the support levels of 1.1350, 1.1260.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

Industrial Production in the United Kingdom for March came below the consensus forecast. (0.1% vs. expectations 0.3%). In the afternoon, the trading was defined by Crude Oil Stocks change in the US (-3.410M vs. forecast 0.714M, previous value 2.784M).

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.4400. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.4320.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

The growth of "risk appetite" had a positive impact on investor's sentiment. The leading stock exchanges showed optimism which pressured the yen as a funding currency. Meanwhile, the government bonds yield differential (the US and Japanese) had been declining for several consecutive trading days. However the pair USD/JPY fell on the Wednesday trades. 

 

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The pair can decrease to the support level of 108.20. We do not exclude the growth to 109.00.

 

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

13.05.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

Although the dollar was supported by the returned risk appetite, the stability of the world economy remained uncertain. The US published Initial Jobless Claims number (294K vs. expectations 270K). The political event of the day were the speeches of Rosengren E. and Mester L. (the Fed representatives). According to Mester the risks related with the Fed forecasts should not have any impact on the monetary policy management. Rosengren suggested that the risks of keeping the rates unchanged seem too low for too long term of time.

 

Germany published Wholesale Price Index (0,3%m/m vs. expectations 0,2% m/m), the Eurozone published Industrial Production (-0.8% m/m vs. expectations 0.1% m/m).

 

The Bank of England meeting was the main event of the day. The regulator left the rate unchanged at 0.5%. The inflation report of the Central Bank was the focus of our attention as well. We expect that the increase in assessment of the inflation in the current year could push the pound upwards and neutralize concerns regarding the cost of lending decrease. The Central Banks expects the inflation to return to 0.2%.

 

The dollar grew against the yen amid the short positions closing. Still the uncertainty of global market growth prospects continued to pressure the US currency.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The Eurozone published Industrial Production for March (-0,8% vs. expectations 0,1%). The 10-year government bonds yield in Germany grew which played into the hands of the euro bulls.

 

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1450. After breaking 1.1450 the buyers may go to 1.1550

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The Bank of England inflation report was the main event of Thursday. As expected the Central Bank comments regarding the economy and the inflation growth were moderate negative. The UK regulator left the rate unchanged at the level of 0,5%.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Golden cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

After the support level of 1.4400 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4320 will be opened.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

According to Haruhiko Kuroda (the head of the Bank of Japan) it will be hard for the Ministry of Finance to weaken the yen to increase exports. The dynamics of the debt market also indicated an increase in demand for Japanese assets. The government bonds yield differential (US and Japanese) continued to decline.

 

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The upward bounce potential target is 109.80. If the price falls it will get to 108.20.

 

 

Franc

 

General overview

 

Uncertainty regarding the future of global growth continued to pressure the US currency. The US published Initial Jobless Claims (294K vs. forecast 277K and the previous value 274K).

 

The price is finding the first support at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9580. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9850.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

16.05.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The dollar strengthened against the major currencies on Friday. The news flow was poor still we shall highlight a number of USA statistics: Producer Price Index (0,2% vs. forecast 0,3%) and Retail Sales report (1,3% vs. expectations 0,8%).

 

The EUR/USD remained under pressure after the latest Eurozone releases. Germany and the Eurozone published their GDP reports for the 1st quarter (the 2nd assessment). German GDP came in worse than it was expected (1,3% vs. expectations 1,5%). No one expected any change in the Eurozone GDP. However, because of the weak industrial production in Germany and the Eurozone its GDP estimate was worse than expected. (1,5% vs. expectations 1,6%).

 

The UK did not publish any important news on Friday. The dollar was stable against the pound, as a result the GBP / USD kept decreasing.

 

According to Haruhiko Kuroda (the head of the Bank of Japan) the Central Bank will do its best to achieve its target (inflation level below 2%). The regulator has enough options to stimulate the economic growth.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

German GDP grew by 0,7% from January to March after increasing by 0,3% in the last three months of 2015. The indicator was above the average forecast. Analysts expected a growth of 0,6%. In annual terms, the economy grew by 1,3%.

 

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

After the support level of 1.1260 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1150 will be opened.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

No important news were published in Britain. The pair was trading under the influence of the American news background. The USA published Retail Sales for April (1,3% vs. expectations -0,8%). Consumer Sentiment Index from Michigan University was expected slightly worse than the forecasts (95.8 vs. expectations 90.0). Another factor that pressured the pair GBP / USD was the oil prices.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

If the price fixates below the support 1.4320, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4240.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

Service sector activity in Japan fell more than expected last month. Tertiary Industry Index (seasonally corrected) showed -0,7% compared with -0,1% in the previous month. Experts expected a decline to -0,2%.

 

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 108.20 soon. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 107.40.

 

 

Franc

 

General overview

 

The USA data influenced the pair. The United States published a large package of important reports: the Producer Price index for April (0,2% vs. forecast 0,3%).

 

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9660. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9940.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9850. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9940.

 

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

17.05.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The dollar fell on Monday. Earlier it strengthened when the strong US reports (Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment) lowered investors' concerns about the growth of the economy. The positive statistics also revived expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise the interest rates sooner than expected.

 

Monday trading was weak with low volatility amid the empty economic calendar. The financial markets in Germany and France did not work celebrating Monday of the Holy Spirit. The UK did not publish any important news either.

 

On Monday, the yen lost its previous gains against the dollar, falling after the growth in the previous days (due to disappointing Chinese economic reports).

 

Machine Tool Orders in Japan, the Fed report, Consumer Prices and Industrial Production in the US will be the focus of our attention this week.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

No important news were published on Monday. Most European markets were closed to celebrate the Day of the Holy Spirit. In the Bonds Market the 10-year government bonds yield in Germany declined which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets.

 

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1260 and 1.1150.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The United Kingdom published Housing Price index for May (0,4% m/m vs. previous 1,3% m/m). Empire State Manufacturing Index was the only USA report that was worth mentioning (58 vs. expectations 59).

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4460.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4320 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.4240.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

The price index for corporate goods (CGPI) in Japan decreased in the contrary to our expectations. According to the Bank of Japan the index came in at -4.2% compared to -3.8% in the previous month. Experts had expected a growth to -3.7%.

 

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 109.80. We do not exclude the falls to 108.20.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

19.05.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The Fed minutes publication was the main event of Wednesday. Traders expected positive comments and hints regarding the possible rate hike. According to the minutes most of the fed members believe that the regulator can hike the rate in June if the economy state allows. After the minutes publications the dollar strengthened all over the market.

 

The Eurozone published the inflation report. The consumer price inflation in the Euro area remained unchanged at - 0.2%.

 

The pound was supported by the latest poll regarding the upcoming referendum. According to the poll: the number of British people who support staying in the EU are 8% more than those who want to leave. The UK published Unemployment Rate (remained at 5.1%), Average Earnings including Bonus (2.0% vs. expectations 1.7%) and Claimant Count Change (-2.4K vs. previous 14.7K).

 

The Yen was supported by the news that the Japanese economy is developing at the fastest pace in the first quarter. Still the Japanese currency lost its gains due to investors' expection that the government new measures will stimulate the economy growth.

 

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The US dollar rose against the euro on Wednesday, due to expectations that the Fed would hike the rates. The Euro area published CPI for April (0,2% vs. expectations -0,2%).

 

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

If the price fixates below the support 1.1150, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1040.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

England published unemployment data: Claimant Count Change (-2.4K vs. forecast 4.0K), Unemployment rate remained unchanged (5,1%), Average Earnings including Bonus (2,0% vs. expectations 1,7%).

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

 

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We expect the 1.4670 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4760.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

The Japanese preliminary Gross Domestic Product for Q1 strengthened (+ 0,4% vs. forecast 0,1%). The GDP grew by 1,7% during the first quarter (on an annual basis). Hopes that the Bank of Japan will soften the monetary policy further significantly decreased amid the improved statistics in Japan and the United States.

 

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 110.60, the next one is 111.40.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

20.05.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The dollar was traded at a seven-week high against the basket of major currencies. The dollar grew when the April Fed meeting minutes showed that the interest rates could rise as early as the next month. The US published weekly initial jobless claims report (278k vs. expectations 275k). William Dudley (the Fed representative) gave his speech by the end of the trading day. According to Dudley if the economy corresponds to the forecast the regulator shall hike the rate in June or July.

 

The Central Bank of the European Union published its last meeting minutes. According to the minutes the Central Bank may use any instruments to rise the inflation, as long as they are effective.

 

The pound continued to strengthen against the dollar when the volume of the UK retail sales rose in April. The volume grew despite a sharp fall of clothing sales, which could be due to off-season weather.

 

The US dollar rose to a three-week high against the yen. The pair USD / JPY grew against the correction on the Japanese equity markets and after the FOMC minutes publication. Only by the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen decreased.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

In the Bonds market the 10-year German government bonds yield decreased which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets. The ECB published its protocols. The published ECB minutes could not support the euro.

 

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1040. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

After the support level of 1.1150 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1040 will be opened.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The volume of Retail Sales in the UK rose last month more than expected. (1,3% vs. expectations 0,5%) Analysts expected the index to rise by 0,5% last month.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The buyers need to break above 1.4670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4760 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

Machinery Orders rose more than expected (5,5% vs. previous -9,2%). The 2-year Treasury bonds yield reached the highest level since March.

 

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 110.60, 111.40.

 

 

Franc

 

General overview

 

The Swiss investors' attention was directed to the United States statistics amid an empty macroeconomic calendar. The USA published Initial Jobless Claims report (278k vs. expectations 275k). The USA published Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (-1.8 vs. forecast 3.5).

 

The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9940, the next one is at 1.0020.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9940. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0020.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

24.05.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The dollar strengthened when the latest Fed meeting showed that the interest rate may be raised as early as June. The United States did not publish any important report and all investors' attention was directed to Bullard and Williams’ speeches (the FOMC members). According to Bullard the regulator has more reasons to change the rates than to keep the soft policy. According to Williams the financial stability speaks in favor of a rate hike.

 

The euro fell to a session low when Markit PMI Composite slowed down in May (52.9 vs. expectations 53.2). The index fell despite the steady growth in Germany and France, as other regions showed a decline.

 

The UK did not publish important news on Monday.

 

The dollar fell against the yen on Monday amid Tokyo stock market falling. The Japanese trade surplus in April was significantly above our expectations. Manufacturing PMI in Japan declined in May (47.6 vs. previous 48.2). The index declined at the fastest pace in the last three years due to new orders decrease. The data came after the G7 meeting on Saturday, where the US again warned Tokyo about the negative consequences of intervening to weaken the yen.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

Manufacturing PMI in Germany rose to a five-month high in May (52.4 vs. previous 51.8, expectations 52.0). Services PMI in Germany rose to a three-month high (55.2 vs. expectations 54.6).

 

The first support lies at 1.1200 and then at 1.1130. The first resistance stands at 1.1250, the next one is at 1.1300.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1200 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1130.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

On Monday, Britain did not publish important fundamental reports. According to Bonds market the British currency grew strongly: government bonds yield differential (the US and UK) expanded to the highest level in the last month and a half.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4670.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

After the support level of 1.4400 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4320 will be opened.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

Japan published Trade Balance for April (823.5 B vs. expectations 492.8B). Japan has been showing a positive trade balance for the third month in a row. The 10-year government bonds (the United States and Japan) expanded close to the mark of 200 bp, which increased the attractiveness of the US assets.

 

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The buyers need to break above 109.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 110.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

25.05.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

Yesterday the dollar rose to the two-month high against other majors, due to the expectations of the rate hike by the Fed in June. The possible rate hike continued to be a driver for the US currency.

 

The euro continued to decline when Germany published weak economic sentiment (6.4 vs. previous 11.2). The sentiment worsened amid concerns about the global economy prospects.

 

The pound strengthened against the dollar when a new poll showed that 55% of Britons supported staying in the EU vs. 42% leaving the EU.

 

The yen weakened after Taro Aso's statement (Japanese Finance Minister). According to Taro they need to stimulate the economy further if they want to raise the sales tax in April 2017.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The Bonds market showed a growing optimism: the 10-years German government bonds yield grew which increased the attractiveness of the European assets. Economic Sentiment in May (the ZEW Institute) was the focus of our attention. The index sharply fell which weakened the euro (6.4 vs. expectations 12.0).

 

The first support lies at 1.1130 and then at 1.1070. The first resistance stands at 1.1200, the next one is at 1.1250.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The strong support level of 1.1200 break was followed by the pair decrease. If it breaks 1.1130 down it will open the way to the level of 1.1070.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The parliamentary hearings on inflation in the UK were the main event in the country. The 10-year government bonds yield in the UK rose by 5 basis points since the last meeting of the Bank.  However, the referendum on membership in EU bears some risk for the country economy.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

If the price fixates above the resistance 1.4670, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4760.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

The USA published New Home Sales Change for April (16,6% vs. previous -1,3%).

 

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ targets are the levels of 110.60 and 111.40.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

26.05.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

On Wednesday the dollar remained at two-month high against other major currencies. Expectations that the US might raise the base rate in June provided a significant support to the dollar.

 

Greece reached an agreement with its creditors and unlocked a new tranche in the amount of €10 billion. The agreement eased the concerns over a possible new debt crisis in the Eurozone.

 

Although no important news were published in the country, the pound kept growing. The only topic that drives the pound is the upcoming referendum. According to the latest poll the number of Britons who prefer to remain in the EU grew. The poll results have been supporting the pound for the second day in a roll.

 

The dollar showed a growth against the yen. Japanese macroeconomic calendar was empty. The pair was under the influence of technical factors. According to Kuroda (Governor of the Bank of Japan) the country economy continued to recover moderately amid the soft policy of the Central Bank.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The Business Climate in Germany grew in May to its highest level in five months. (107.7 vs. expectations 106.8). The published data showed that the largest economy in the Eurozone is getting better.

 

The first support lies at 1.1130 and then at 1.1070. The first resistance stands at 1.1200, the next one is at 1.1250.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1130 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1070.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The pound is approaching its high of the week due to reduced uncertainty about the outcome of the referendum. According to the latest poll the number of Brexit opponents is 55% vs. 42% who want to exit the EU.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4560. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4760, the next one is at 1.4880.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We expect the 1.4760 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4880.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

There is 60% possibility that the FOMC will raise the interest rates on June 15th. The positive statistics from the United States supported the10-years government bonds (US and Japan) which increased the attractiveness of the US assets.

 

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movementб forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 110.60, 111.40.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

27.05.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The dollar strengthened its positions amid positive economic reports. According to the latest Fed comments, the US regulator may raise the rates at its meeting in June. In economic news, the United States published Initial Jobless Claims number (268K vs. forecast 275K).

 

The Eurozone agreement with Greece supported the euro. Greece reached an agreement with its creditors and shall receive a new tranche of loans (10 billion euro).

 

The second GDP estimate for the first quarter in the UK confirmed that the British economic recovery slowed down. The economy grew by 0,4% in the first quarter from 0,6% in Q4 2015. The British economy faced problems with a weakened growth in emerging markets, especially in China. The upcoming referendum slowed the growth as well.

 

The dollar remains near in a range waiting for J. Yellen’s speech. The market expects clues from the regulator regarding the possible rate hike in June. The yen grew and deprived the dollar from its latest gains. The Japanese currency growth forced investors to close positions before any potential risk event.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The 10-year government bonds in Germany declined which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets. The growing "risk appetite" in the world put pressure on the safe assets, such as the single European currency. However the pair euro/dollar strengthened.

 

The first support lies at 1.1130 and then at 1.1070. The first resistance stands at 1.1200, the next one is at 1.1250.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

We expect the 1.1250 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1300.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The revised GDP data for the first quarter was the main event in the UK. The index remained at the same level at 0.4%.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

If the price fixates below the support 1.4560, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4480.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

The yen stopped to grow on Thursday. Earlier it increased as corporate services price index rose. Corporate Service Price index rose by 0,2% year on year, as expected. The USA published Durable Goods Orders (0,4% vs. expectations 0,3%) and Initial Jobless Claims (268K vs. forecast 275K).

 

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 109.00, the next one is 108.20.

 

 

Franc

 

General overview

 

Yesterday investors' attention was directed to the weekly US labor market report – Initial Jobless Claims (268K vs. forecast 275K). Switzerland published Industrial Production (-2,2% vs. previous -7,4%).

 

The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9940, the next one is at 1.0020.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9850. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9750.

 

 

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

30.05.2016

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Janet Yellen (the Fed Chairman) gave her speech. According to Janet Yellen the regulator might hike the rates in the upcoming months if the USA economy keeps steadily growing. Yellen’s speech supported the dollar.

Current situation

The pair was correcting the whole previous week. Still the level of 1.1200 did not let it further. After a short consolidation near the level of 1.1200 the pair returned to a decrease. The support is at the level of 1.1070, the resistance lies at 1.1130.

MACD is in a negative area. The histogram is above the signal line. The signal is bullish. RSI indicator approached the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations

After J.Yellen’s speech the dollar received a support. We forecast a decrease deep further to the levels of 1.1070 and 1.1000. As the pair is oversold we do not exclude a correction up to 1.1200 where there is a pivot point and the EUR/USD may turn down.

http://savepic.ru/9911634.jpg[/img]

Pound

General overview

The 10-year government bonds yield in the UK decreased. The UK published Consumer Confidence index (-1 vs. previous -3).

Current situation

The GBP/USD strengthened last week and grew above the supports 1.4560 and 1.4670. Still the pair failed to remain near its new month high. The pound fell and broke the mark 1.4670. The support is at the level of 1.4560, the resistance is at 1.4670.

MACD is in a positive area. The indicator kept decreasing. The histogram is below the signal line. The signal is bullish. RSI indicator is above 70 and is overbought.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4560 soon. The next target is the level of 1.4480.

http://savepic.ru/9909586.jpg[/img]

Yen

National Consumer Price Index remained unchanged contrary to expectations. (-0,3% vs. expectations -0.4%).

Current situation

The pair USD/JPY made growth attempts. Still a strong resistance 110.60 did not let the pair to reach new high. The pair was in a range the second part of the week. Still it managed to grow to 110.60 before the trading week end. The resistance is at 109.80, the support is at 110.60.

MACD is on the zero line giving no signals. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued. The first target is the level 110.60, the next one is 111.40.

http://savepic.ru/9902418.jpg[/img]

Franc

General overview

Employment Level index in Switzerland decreased in the last quarter. According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, the index (seasonally corrected) showed 4,880M vs. previous 4,897M.

Current situation

The USD/CHF was in a range 0.9850-0.9940 last week. The pair could grow to 0.9940, but did not break it. The pair corrected downwards to 0.9850 where it turned upwards again. The Janet Yellen’s speech supported the dollar and the pair grew and touched 0.9940. The support comes in at 0.9850, the resistance lies 0.9940.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. MACD kept growing. The signal is bullish. RSI approached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 0.9940 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.0020.

http://savepic.ru/9897298.jpg[/img]

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[/url" rel="noopener" style="color: rgb(0, 119, 204);" target="_blank">https://www.fortfs.com/en'>

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

31.05.2016

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The dollar rose after J.Yellen’s (the Fed Chairman) comments regarding a possible rate hike in June. The market showed a low volatility due to the holidays in the USA.

 

Current situation

 

The EUR/USD tried to grow still it could not break the level of 1.1200. The pair decreased and broke the support 1.1130. The EUR/USD set a new two-month low at 1.1097 on Monday and then started a weak upward correction. The support is at 1.1130, the resistance is at 1.1200.

 

MACD is in a negative area. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. RSI is neutral.

 

Trading recommendations

 

After the support level of 1.1130 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1070 will be opened.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

Monday trading was low volatile due to holidays in the US and UK markets.

 

Current situation

 

The pair GBP/USD continued its correction from the recent high near 1.4760. Yesterday the trading was low volatile due to Spring Bank Holiday in the UK. The price was traded at the opening price level almost the whole day. Only by the end of the day the pair slightly increased. The support is at 1.4560, the resistance is at 1.4670.

 

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. The indicator kept decreasing. RSI is neutral.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4560 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.4480.

 

Yen

 

The pair continued its recovery. Rumors that Abe (the Prime Minister of Japan ) was likely to postpone the sales tax increase to 2.5 years pressured the yen. The market volatility was reduced amid to the US holiday – Memorial Day.

Current situation

 

In the absence of majority of traders (due to holidays in the USA and the UK) the dollar started the week with a growth. Even though the pair started the week below the mark 110.60 it grew to the level 111.40 by the end of Monday. The resistance is at the level of 111.40, the support is at 110.60.

 

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is above the signal line.  MACD kept growing. The signal is bullish. Indicator is above 70 and is overbought.

Trading recommendations

 

After the support level of 110.60 breakthrough down the way to the support 109.80 will be opened.

 

 

Franc

 

General overview

 

KOF published Leading Indicator for April (102.9 vs. previous 102.6 and forecast 102.8).

 

Current situation

 

The bulls in the pair USD/CHF could take the dollar upwards, the pair broke the mark of 0.9940. Still the USD/CHF could not hold over the level and started a downward correction. The second part of the day the pair remained below 0.9940. The resistance is at the level of 0.9940, the support is at 0.9850.

 

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD kept decreasing. The signal is bearish. RSI is neutral.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9940. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 1.0020.

 

 

CAD

 

General overview

 

Canada published Raw Material Price Index that rose more than expected (0.7% vs. expectations 2.2%).

 

Current situation

 

The tendency of the pair USD / CAD still looks bullish. The latest growth seems to be a correction from a decrease to the level of 1.2900. The pair managed to grow to 1.3100, where the growth was slowed down. The resistance is at the level of 1.3100, the support is at 1.2900.

 

MACD is on the zero line giving no signals. The histogram is above the signal line. RSI is neutral.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The potential decrease target is the support levels of 1.2900.

 

 

Gold

 

General overview

 

The gold continued to decline. The metal decreased due to Fed comments and due to the American regulator minutes publication. The number of traders who believe that the US will hike the rate in June grew that pressured the metal.

 

Current situation

 

The gold remained under pressure since last week. On Monday the gold quotes could test the support at around 1220 per ounce. From the level of 1220 the pair began a growth and was able to return some of the latest loss. The resistance is at the level of 1215, the support is at 1200.

 

MACD is in a negative area. MACD kept decreasing. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. RSI approached the oversold level of 30.

 

Trading recommendations

 

If the price fixates below the support 1200, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1180.

 

 

DAX30

 

General overview

 

The situation with DAX slightly changed on Monday. The index was traded in different directions during the day. DAX was influenced by oil prices decline and a possible rate hike in the United States.

 

Current situation

 

The index started the week at the level of 10284. DAX rose and was able to set a new high at 10348, where the index turned down and fell to the opening price zone. The resistance is at the level of 10350, the support is at 10175.

 

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line.  MACD kept decreasing. The signal is bearish. RSI reached the overbought level of 70.

Trading recommendations

 

The approach to the level of 10350 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 10175.

 

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

01.06.2016

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The ECB meeting is the main event in the Eurozone this week. We believe that the European regulator will not make any changes to its monetary policy.

 

Current situation

 

The pair attempted to recover on Tuesday. After a short consolidation on Monday, the pair returned the part of the previous losses. The pair returned to sales by the end of trades and tested the level of 1.1130.

 

The resistance is at 1.1200, the support is at 1.1130.

 

The MACD histogram is in a negative zone, above its signal line. The MACD decreased giving a signal to sell. RSI is in a neutral zone. The indicator does not give clear signals.

 

Trading recommendations

 

If the price fixates below the support 1.1130, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1070.

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The pound resumed its decline. In general, the dollar remained strong against the pound after Janet Yellen’s speech last Friday. The market expects new drivers for a further movement.

 

Current situation

 

The pair declined on Tuesday. After a false breakout of 1.4670 the pair fell to 1.4480.

 The resistance is at the level of 1.4560, the support is at 1.4480.

 

MACD is in the negative zone below the signal line. The indicator continued its decline showing a sell signal. The RSI signal line is close to the oversold zone.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4480 and 1.4400.

 

 

Yen

 

The pair returned above the level of 110.40 amid the dollar growth. Abe (the Prime Minister of Japan) decided to postpone the increase in sales tax to 2.5 years.

 

Current situation

 

The quotes made attempts to break through the level of 111.40. The pair was in a narrow range of 110.60 - 111.33 all day. The pair tested the level of 110.60 by the end of the trades.

 The resistance is at the level of 111.40, the support is at 110.60.

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD kept decreasingg. The signal is bearish. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

 

Trading recommendations

 

If the price fixates below the support 110.60, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 109.80.

 

 

Franc

 

General overview

 

The pair continued its growth. We believe that the pair shall become more volatile before the FED meeting in June.

 

Current situation

 

The market still looks bullish, despite the downward correction in the beginning of the week. The pair tested 0.9940, but failed to consolidate on it and fell. The USD/CHF bounced off the level 0.9900 upwards.

 

The resistance is at the level of 0.9940, the support is at 0.9850.

 

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD kept decreasing. The signal is bearish. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

 

Trading recommendations

We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9940. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 1.0020.

 

 

CAD

 

General overview

 

We remain bearish on the outlook for the currency. If the Canadian economy continues weakening, the price may decline deeper.

Current situation

 

The pair grew on Tuesday and reached the resistance 1.3100. Its further movement depends whether the pair will break it or will bounce off from the resistance 1.3100. The resistance is at the level of 1.3100, the support is at 1.2900.

 

MACD is on the zero line giving no signals. The histogram is above the signal line. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

 

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.3100 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.3200.

 

 

Brent

 

General overview

 

The oil prices became volatile on the eve of the OPEC meeting on the 2nd of June. We believe that OPEC will not change anything in exporting policies.

 

Current situation

 

The market looks bullish at the higher timeframes. The oil grew the whole Tuesday and tested the level of 50.50. Then the price fell to the level of 49.60. The resistance is at the level of 50.50, the support is at 49.60.

 

The MACD histogram is in a positive zone. The histogram is above the signal line. The MACD continues to grow and gives a buy signal. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

 

Trading recommendations

The oil prices can grow to the resistance level of 50.50. After breaking 50.50 the buyers may go to 51.50.

 

 

DAX30

 

General overview

 

Yesterday, the European stock market declined. The German DAX 30 fell by 0,61% due to the Volkswagen shares fall. The shares fell amid the latest automaker’s statement where he reported about 19,3% profit decrease.

 

Current situation

 

DAX moved in different directions on Tuesday. The index began trading from the maximum point reached on Monday – 10350. In the European session the index DAX 30 dropped and declined to 10175. The resistance is at the level of 10350, the support is at 10175.

 

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD kept decreasing. The signal is bearish. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The buyers need to break above 10350 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 10520 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

03.06.2016

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The ECB meeting was the main event in the Eurozone this week. The European regulator left the rate unchanged. The ECB meeting results weakened the euro, at the same time the strong unemployment statistics in the USA supported the dollar. As the result the pair EUR/USD fell.

 

Current situation

 

The euro fell on Thursday due to the macroeconomic statistics in Europe and the United States. The pair could not hold at the level of 1.1200, and dropped down. The level of 1.1155 became the local minimum of the day. We believe that sellers are back and they will take the pair further down. The resistance is at 1.1200, the support is at 1.1130.

 

MACD is in a positive area, close to the zero line. The histogram is on the level of the signal line. MACD kept decreasing showing a sell signal.  RSI approached the oversold level of 30.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1130 soon. The next target will be le level of 1.1070.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The British currency is still volatile after the latest poll regarding the UK membership in the EU. According to the poll the number of Britons who want leaving the EU grew vs. those who prefer staying in it.

 

Current situation

 

The British currency remained in the flat after a recent sharp decrease. The pair remained in the range 1.4400 – 1.4480. The market needs a break to recover from the losses. The resistance is at the level of 1.4480, the support is at 1.4400.

 

MACD indicator is in a negative area. The signal line is in a histogram. The signal is bearish. The indicator RSI is oversold.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We expect the flat will be continued.

 

 

Yen

 

General overview

 

The dollar in the USD/JPY fell when Japan postponed the planned sales tax increase. The Japanese government decided to move from the monetary policy easing to economic stimulus.

 

Current situation

 

The yen continued falling. The pair set a new local low level at the mark 108.80. The pair broke the level of 109.00 and stopped to consolidate. The resistance is at the level of 109.00, the support is at 108.20.

 

MACD is in a negative area. The signal line is in a histogram. MACD showing sell signal. RSI reached the oversold level of 30.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the flat will be continued. We do not exclude the growth to 109.00.

 

 

Franc

 

General overview

 

The Initial Jobless Claims number decreased in the USA. That is a good sign that showed that the USA economy kept recovering. The USA statistics supported the dollar that recovered and returned some of its previous losses.

 

Current situation

 

The pair recovered and returned some of the lost positions. The pair grew from the mark 0.9850 to 0.9900. The pair just tested the level 0.9900 and did not move higher. We believe that the pair shall return to the growth. The resistance is at the level of 0.9940, the support comes at 0.9850.

 

MACD indicator is in a negative area. MACD keeps growing. The signal line is in a histogram. The signal line of RSI bounced off the oversold level of 30.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We advise to long with the first target – 0.9940. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0020.

 

 

 

[ValdisTF]

 

 

CAD

 

General overview

If the USA regulator postpones the rates hike the dollar may weaken (some of the economic indicators do not match the expected level). Stephen Poloz (the Canadian Bank Governor) gave his speech. Still his statement had a minor effect on the pair.

 

Current situation

 

The pair remained in the flat and was traded near the level of 1.3100. The USD/CAD moved in different ways on Thursday. The local low mark is the level of 1.3070, a day high lies at 1.3145. The resistance is at the level of 1.3100, the support is at 1.2900.

 

MACD indicator is in a positive area. The signal line is above the histogram. The indicator is decreasing showing a sell signal. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3100, the next one is 1.3200. We do not exclude the falls to 1.2900.

 

 

AUD

 

General overview

 

The Australian dollar fell after the retail sales report in Australia. The index came worse that expected. The RBA may low its interest rates to 1.0% from the current 1.75%. The next RBA meeting will take place on 7th of June.

 

Current situation

 

The Australian dollar remained in a flat. The pair was traded near the mark of 0.7270. From a technical point of view the pair looks bearish. The resistance is at the level of 0.7270, the support lies at 0.7140.

 

MACD is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. MACD keeps decreasing. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

 

Trading recommendations

 

If the price fixates below the support 0.7140, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 0.7040. We do not exclude the growth to 0.7270.

 

 

Brent

 

General overview

 

The Brent quotes grew after the OPEC meeting in Vienna. The OPEC decided not to limit its production and left the quotes at the same level.

 

Current situation

 

The Brent showed active trades yesterday. The OPEC meeting was the main driver for the oil quotes. The pair decreased at the European session and stopped above the support of 48.60. The support became the pivot point where the Brent oil grew to the resistance of 50.50. The resistance is at the level of 50.50, the support is at 49.60.

 

MACD indicator is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will go to 50.50 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 51.50.

 

 

DAX30

 

General overview

 

On Thursday, the European stock indexes showed a mixed background. Investors were cautious before the monthly decisions of the European Central Bank and preferred to stay away from any serious actions. The index grew by 0.03% during the European session.

 

Current situation

 

The market is still bearish. Yesterday the index tested the strong support of 10175. DAX 30 consolidated above the support 10175.. The resistance is at the level of 10350, the support is at 10175.

 

MACD indicator is in a positive area. The histogram is below the signal line. The MACD is declining, the signal is bearish. RSI approached the oversold level of 30.

Trading recommendations

 

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 10350. After breaking 10350 the buyers may go to 10520.

 

 

Gold

 

General overview

We believe that the dollar can keep growing if the FED continues making aggressive statements. The strong dollar shall pressure all risky assets including the gold. The US regulator has been showing signals of his readiness to increase the rates further at the next meeting.

 

Current situation

 

The gold lost some of its positions yesterday. The pair broke the level 1215 downwards. The pair did not move deep and stopped at 1209.50. The metal needs new drivers to continue its moving. The resistance is at the level of 1215, the support is at 1200.

 

MACD is in a negative area, the histogram is above the signal line. MACD kept increasing. The signal is bullish. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1200 and 1180.

 

 

Dow Jones

 

General overview

 

The major indexes in the USA recovered and returned some of the losses which they had suffered after the Production PMI growth in the US. The PMI index has been growing the third month in a row. The Dow Jones index rose by the end of the trading day.

 

Current situation

 

The index recovered yesterday. Dow Jones grew from the level 17686 to 17815. The index looks bullish. The resistance is at the level of 17900, the support is at 17740.

 

MACD is in a negative area. MACD increased. RSI is neutral. The indicator does not give clear signals.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The buyers need to break above 17900 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 18000 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman