"Fort Financial Services"-fundamental and technical analysis

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

11.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

 

The Chinese market collapse for more than 7%, the Chinese stock exchanges trading suspension, cheap oil – all these factors supported the euro and the yen. The dollar experienced difficulties with a growth amid the global markets negative sentiment, the Fed soft minutes as well as the weak labor market data. The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release. The data came higher than expected 200 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 295 thousand.

 

The struggle between the major competitors, the euro and the dollar, is continued. We believe that the euro current growth looks more like a temporary correction while the dollar remains on a horse. The pair received almost no support from the macroeconomic data which had the mixed background. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar increased.

 

The pound was the main outsider among the main currencies. The Cable has recently been quite sensitive to the oil prices drop which has fallen to 11-year lows. The Sterling slightly corrected after the weak USA data, in general, the pair remains under strong pressure. The UK published the trade balance: -10,64B against the forecasted -10,50B. The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a decrease.

 

At the same time Japan did not publish important reports. The dollar dynamics is the main driver for the yen. The pair USD/JPY sharply fell by the end of the trading day.

 

 

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The consumer sentiment improvement in most sectors of the regional economy has not been transformed into the consumer spending increase yet that is seen from the retail sales reports. The Germany published import (1,6% against the forecasted 1,0%), export (0,4% against the forecasted 0,7%), payment balance (19,7B against the forecasted 20,0B) and industrial production reports (-0,3% against the forecasted 0,5%).

 

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

 

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The buyers need to break above 1.0925 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1050 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

Besides to the divergence between the Bank of England and the Fed monetary policies the Sterling is under pressure amid some fears that the UK may exit the EU. The referendum is supposed to take place in the middle of 2016. While traders are speculating about the possible referendum consequences the pound remains in a state of free fall. In addition, the oil price decrease keeps pressuring the Cable.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4530.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

After the support level of 1.4480 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4400 will be opened.

 

 

Yen

 

General overview

 

The NFP report was last Friday main event. After a growth for 2012 thousand in November, the December NFP figure was expected to reach 200 thousand. However the relese came in at the level 292 thousand. The labor market state is one of the key benchmarks for the Fed in determining the monetary policy course.

 

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

 

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 117.00 and 116.20 soon.

 

 

 

Franc

 

General overview

 

The dollar fell against the franc. Earlier the pair dollar/franc strengthened amid growing interest in dollar buying and the European shares recovery. The Chinese stock markets stabilized, European markets are recovering that reduces the demand for the safe assets, including the franc. The Switzerland unemployment rate rose to 3,7% from 3,4%, exceeding the forecast of 3,6%. The consumer prices fell in December by 1,3% y/y, after falling 1,4%.

 

The first support resides at 0.9850, the next is at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

 

The price is in the Cloud and is above the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.

 

 

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

12.01.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The US dollar again showed mixed dynamics against its major rivals, having shown weakening against the yen the sixth day in a row. In general, there was an attempt to restore the US currency positions amid the global markets improved sentiment. Last week the Chinese government decided not to suspend trading anymore that helped stock indexes to recover. This fact played into the dollar hands against the euro, still the pair loss appeared to be symbolic. At the same time unexpectedly strong USA employment report has not given to a greenback a substantial support.

 

The low inflation expectations, combined with the Chinese problems can make FOMC refrain from monetary policy tightening at the meeting on 27th of January, which will deprive the US dollar strong support. Yesterday the trading was defined by risk appetite amid lack of macroeconomic statistics. After a slight correction growth the pair euro/dollar decreased.

 

The British pound finished last week in the "red zone", still the smooth sterling devaluation is a positive factor for the United Kingdom economy. The UK trade balance release again points to the “strong pound” negative effect: the deficit amounted to 10.64 billion pounds in November which is by 1.08% more than in the same period in 2014. The pair pound/dollar decreased on Monday.

 

The major stock indices in Asia, Europe and North America lost more than 6% at the end of last week. The trend is in favor of the Japanese yen in the credit market: the yield differential of 10-year US and Japanese government bonds is decreasing that may attract investment to the US assets. The pair dollar/yen showed a decrease.

 

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The weak Germany data pressured the euro. In particular, the Germany industrial production fell by 0.3% in November despite the forecast of 0.5% y / y, while the trade surplus narrowed to 19.7 billion euros from the previous 20.5 billion. The price fell back down after the US labor market publication. However, there was just a short-term dollar strengthening despite the unexpectedly high index results.

 

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

 

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The upward bounce potential target are 1.0925, 1.1050. If the price falls it will get to 1.0800 and 1.0730.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The pair GBP/USD continues to move towards the south. In addition to the fundamental factors (the Bank of England and the United States monetary policy difference), and the potential United Kingdom exit from the EU the UK statistics disappointed the market –merchandise trade deficit narrowed in November and fell short of the forecast, amounting to -10.640 billion, against the expected -10.500 billion.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4530.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.4630, 1.4700.

 

 

 

Yen

 

General overview

 

The price resumed its decline amid the Chinese economic prospects continue pressuring the stock markets, the yen acts as a refuge currency in this case. The USA published the labor market conditions index: 2,9 against the forecasted 0,0.

 

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

 

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 117.00 and 116.20.

 

 

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

13.01.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The greenback received some support from the USA strong Friday's report where the employment rate rose much more than expected. In addition, the December labor market conditions index has improved to 2.9 vs. expected value of 0.0. The Conference Board employment trends index rose to 129.3 from the previous 128.3. This labor market picture could prompt the Fed to raise the rates earlier if the country inflation accelerates.

 

The China was again in the center of attention when its stock market fell more than 4%. As a result the euro was in demand as a funding currency. On the other hand, the “black gold” sales caused the German government bonds yield decline, causing the United States bond yield differential expansion. The trades on the pair euro/dollar closed with a decrease.

 

The UK industrial production report could not please the market with positive data: -0.7% m/m 0.9% y/y. The November production sector PMI lost 2.7 bp. The pair pound/dollar decreased by the end of the trades.

 

One could see a moderate USD/JPY growth due to Japanese negative payments balance: the balance figures fell to 1.42 trillion yen from 1.49 trillion yen. There was a capital inflows decrease into Japanese securities and imports growth to a trade balance. The BoJ has lost 11.2 billion dollars in the second month of the fourth quarter which is also a negative factor for its economy. The consumer confidence index rose to 42.7 in December. The pair dollar/yen was trading in a flat.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The improved European investors’ sentiment, the widespread dollar strengthening, as well as unfavorable economic reports helped the euro to weaken. The January Sentix investor confidence index surfaced a drop from 9.6 to 15.7 against the expected value of 12.2. In general, the euro position remains fragile in light of the ECB and the Fed policies divergence, as well the US and the Eurozone different statistics.

 

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The price is likely to go downward to the support levels of 1.0800 and 1.0730.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The "black gold" quotations collapsed at the beginning of the week which is a positive factor for the US currency as the commodities price is denominated in dollars. The Brent bears are inclined to test the psychological level of 30. This is a negative factor for the Sterling. The 10-year UK government bonds yield reduced relative to their US and the Eurozone counterparts.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.4480. After breaking 1.4480 the buyers may go to 1.4560.

 

 

Yen

 

General overview

 

. Investors still avoid the "risky assets". This factor is a positive one for the yen as a funding currency. The Japanese Government expressed its strong concerns about the Chinese economy slowdown and about the external risk factors, noting that the country economy keeps growing, despite the China problems.

 

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

 

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The flat trading will be continued at the level of 117.80.

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

14.01.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The stock indexes are still the main drivers to the Forex currencies and we believe they will keep influencing the market till the end of the week, especially when the economic calendar is not full with important events.

 

The Eurostat published the Eurozone industrial production report. Leading indicators are showing mixed background. On the one hand, the Manufacturing PMI positive dynamics makes us think that the data output will be bit better than the forecast. On the other hand, the November Germany and France industrial production recorded a decrease which is a negative scenario signal. The data came in at the level of -0,7%(m/m) and 1,1% (y/y) against the forecasted -0,3% (m/m) and 1,3% (y/y). By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar showed a growth.

 

The British corporations suffer from weak external demand and a sterling high exchange rate against the euro. We do not expect strong data taking into account the factory orders reduction and the December Manufacturing PMI decline. We note a fourth quarter manufacturing sector negative trend. Investors are beginning to lay in the quotes most pessimistic expectations about the fourth quarter UK GDP. The pair GBP/USD was trading in a flat.

 

The carry trade deals closure has traditionally been a positive factor for the Japanese yen as the funding currency Forex. The pair dollar/yen fell by the end of the trades.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The secondary USA releases had a minor influence on the quotations dynamics. The economic optimism index showed a growth, but fell short of the expected value, having amounted 47.3 vs. expected – 47.6. Meanwhile, the business confidence indicator came in at the level of 95.2 against the expectations at 95.4. The traders' attention was drawn to the Eurozone industrial production report which is expected to decline in monthly terms. The data came in worse then forecasted median.

 

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing

 

Trading recommendations

 

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0800 and 1.0730 soon.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

. The weak productive sector suggests that the Bank of England will not raise the rates this year. Shall the Bank of England publish the negative comments on its Thursday meeting, the pound may fall under a new wave of sales.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The upward bounce potential target are 1.4400 and 1.4320.

 

 

Yen

 

General overview

 

The yen strengthened a bit amid the quite favorable macroeconomic statistics. In December, the consumer confidence index rose to 42.7 against the expected 42.3. Meanwhile, the Eco Watchers Survey rose to 48.7 from 46.1. However, the yen failed to hold its positions in a fading of interest in risk-free assets against the background of the stock market recovery. Only by the end of the trades the yen returned the leadership.

 

The first support resides at 117.80, the next is at 117.00. The first resistance stands at 118.40, the next one is at 119.20.

 

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We may expect the consolidating between the levels of 118.40 and 117.80.

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

15.01.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The dollar showed mixed dynamics with its major opponents. Once again, the stock market set the tone of trading. The American benchmarks were under pressure, the oil went below $30 per barrel, and the safe assets partially recovered.

 

The German 2015 GDP was published. The GDP showed a growth rate of 1,72% in the first three quarters of last year. The German economy leading indicators, such as the manufacturing and non-production sphere PMI, as well as the IFO index pointed to the fact that the growth rate significantly accelerated in the fourth quarter. The data came out at the level of 1,7% against the forecasted 1,6%. However by the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD decreased.

 

The Bank of England minutes publication was the main event of the day. The UK interest rates remained at the same level. The weak economic data together with the oil prices decline added headache to Mark Carney and his colleagues. Now no one talks about a possible interest rates increase. The trades on the pair GBP/USD closed a slight growth.

 

The China stock market downtrend pressured the Asian, Europe and North America stock markets. The United States trades were also under bears’ control: the high-tech sector showed the largest decline. The carry trade positionsсlosing contributed to the demand for the yen as a funding currency. Nevertheless by the end of the trades the pair USD/JPY increased.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

. Traders resumed the euro buying amid the US stock indices negative dynamics and a new wave of oil prices fall when the Energy Ministry report pointed to the oil reserves growth in the US stores. The ECB released its latest meeting minutes. According to the December European Central Bank minutes release the inflation outlook has been deteriorated again.

 

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

 

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing

 

Trading recommendations

 

We expect the 1.0800 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.0730

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

. The Bank of England's monetary policy decision was the main event of the day. The market did not expect any changes from the regulator, although the regulator’s comments regarding the country economy and the monetary policy prospects revived the pair GBPUSD movement.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We believe the consolidation at the level of 1.4400 will be continued now.

 

 

Yen

 

General overview

 

The United States and Japanese government bond yield differential has been declining increasing the investment attractiveness of the Japanese assets, thus supporting the yen. The US initial jobless claims release has been published, traders expected 278.000 against the previous 277.000, in fact the data came in at the level 284.000.

 

The first support resides at 117.80, the next is at 117.00. The first resistance stands at 118.40, the next one is at 119.20.

 

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The upward bounce potential target are 118.40 and 119.20.

 

 

Franc

 

General overview

 

The December Import Price Index was published in the US: the forecast was -1,4% m/m vs. the previous data – 0,5% m/m. The data came in at the level 1,2% m/m. The dollar has lost its past achievements after the Fed’s Beige Book publication. According to the report the weak wage growth pressure as well as the general price pressure is minimal. The report generated some speculations that the Fed would not rush to increase the interest rates in such circumstances.

 

The first support resides at 0.9960, the next is at 0.9850. The first resistance stands at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

 

The indicator shows a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and in above the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190.

 

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

18.01.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The market was quite volatile last Friday, still in general it tends to the dollar strengthening. The heterogeneous movement was mainly due to the stock and commodity markets instability. Besides the market sentiments, the currency dynamics was influenced by the European and the UK Central Banks while the macro data remained practically unnoticed.

 

The German 2015 GDP is encouraging. The GDP growth was 1.7% due to the personal consumption, the government spending and the investment growth. The positive data have helped to reduce the yields differential on the US and Germany government bonds. The Eurozone published the November trade balance. The data came in at the level 23,6B. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar decreased.

 

The debt market reacted to the British monetary authorities statements by the government bonds yields lowering in relation to its US and Germany counterparts. That fact, of course, reduces the investments attractiveness to the British assets. The Bank of England posted the Credit Conditions Survey. The pair pound/dollar fell by the end of the trades.

 

The demand for risky assets keeps growing which is a negative factor for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. One of the last Friday key events was the USA retail sales report (-0,1% against the forecasted 0,2%) where the producer prices (on the forecasted level of 0,2%) and the Michigan University consumer confidence index (93,3 against the forecasted 93,0) were announced. The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The ECB published the December meeting minutes which wore a rather "soft" character. The regulator pointed to the inflation downside risks. Some of the Bank representatives think that the regulator can cut the rate by 20 basis points, while the other part of the voting members is against the rate easing by more than 10 basis points. The pair limited reaction to the published minutes indicates the monetary authorities’ ambiguity who apparently chose a waiting policy.

 

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1050, 1.1150.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The GBP / USD showed no noticeable reaction to the Bank of England verdict, as the expectations regarding the meeting outcome were unanimous. The regulator confirmed its forecasts, leaving the current monetary policy course unchanged. The rate remained at 0.5% and the asset purchase program amounts 375 billion. The votes’ layout has remained the same - 8 to 1.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4240 and 1.4160 soon.

 

 

Yen

 

General overview

 

It is impossible to ignore the debt market dynamics: the US and Japanese government bonds differential profitability has been decreasing for four consecutive trading days. This tendency increases the Japanese yen as an investment asset supporting the demand for the yen.

 

The first support resides at 116.20, the next is at 115.40. The first resistance stands at 117.00, the next one is at 117.80.

 

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will go to 116.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 115.40.

 

 

Franc

 

General overview

According to the Fed's representative Bullard the Fed did not think about the further rates raising in January. At the same time, he believes the interest rate remains challenging despite the Fed's policy normalization. The dollar is very sensitive to the national policy now.

 

The first support resides at 0.9960, the next is at 0.9850. The first resistance stands at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

 

The indicator shows a weak and confirmed buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and in above the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We advise to short with the first target – 0.9960. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850.

 

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

19.01.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The foreign exchange market showed a high volatility last week that reduced on Monday. The main volatility driver was another world stock exchanges collapse that happened after the oil price sharp decrease. However, the US reports have not gone unnoticed. The retail sales data were extremely weak which had increased pressure on the dollar. The retail sales declined by 0.1% m/m in December vs. the forecast of 0.0%. The previous value was 0.2%. The manufacturing sector business activity indicator fell to 19.37 from 6.21 while the expected slowdown was 4.0.

 

The United States was on a day off celebrating Martin Luther King Day. As a result there was a low volatility during the American session.

 

The Eurozone pleased the market with the trade balance strong data. Net exports increased by 23.6 billion euro in November which is 17.4% more than the year before. The trade surplus growth rate remained at 7.58% in October 2015. We see the growth rate acceleration which is a positive factor for the euro zone GDP. The pair euro/dollar slightly decreased.

 

There has not been published any important macroeconomic statistics in the UK, traders paid their attention to the debt market dynamics. The 10-year UK government bonds yield has been reduced relative to their US and Germany counterparts, thereby putting pressure on the pound. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar decreased after a growth.

 

Traders avoid investments into the risky assets preferring the Japanese yen as a funding currency. However the pair USD/JPY showed a slight growth on Monday.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The pair fell after it was trading upwards, receiving support amid the increased interest to the safe assets. The positive trade balance report has also supported the EUR/USD – the surplus widened to 22.7 billion euro from 19.9 billion against the expected 21.1 billion. However, the main growth driver was the block of the US statistics that discouraged the dollar.

 

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating

 

Trading recommendations

 

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.0925. After breaking 1.0925 the buyers may go to 1.1050.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The Cable was unable to take advantage of widespread dollar sales staying among the main outsiders. However, the Pound has had its reasons for that. Firstly, the Sterling is concerned about the UK economy state. Secondly, the Bank of England is unlikely to change the rate this year. In addition, the investors are waiting for the referendum where the UK future in the EU will be decided. 

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

After the support level of 1.4240 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4160 will be opened.

 

 

 

Yen

 

General overview

 

The pair dollar/yen slightly increased. Earlier the Bank of Japan statements pressured somehow the pair. The regulator hops to achieve the inflation target in the second half of 2016, and also pointed to the lack of need for further monetary policy easing. The dollar weakening impacted the pair as well. Moreover, the active Japanese yen buying was due to the flight from risky assets.

 

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

 

The indicator shows a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The pair can consolidate between the support level of 117.00 and the resistance level of 117.80

 

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

20.01.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

China published the last year 4th quarter GDP. That release defined the course of trading for the whole day. Leading indicators point to a serious economic slowdown. The Markit production PMI only once was higher than 50% in the past year. The China's fourth quarter GDP is estimated at 6,8% y/y that coincided with the predictions and became a driver for the market. The other China macro-economic reports have been very doubtful with their figures. Thus, the December industrial production rose by 5.9% y/y with the growth expectations of 6,0% y/y, while the last month retail sales increased by only 11,1% y/y. Traders expected the indicator to increase by 11,3 % y/y.

 

The euro zone published several releases. The surplus current account balance rose to 26.4 billion euro in November against 25.6 billion in October. The ZEW economic expectations index fell to 10.2 in January from 16.1 in December, it’s the lowest level since October 2015. Economists had forecasted a decline to 8.0. The China slowing economic growth alongside with the developing economies problems are clouding the German economy prospects. Only by the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar strengthened.

 

The December UK CPI became the main event for the GBP/USD. The United Kingdom labor market surfaces the mixed data. On the one hand we have an increased employment, which is an inflation indicator. On the other hand, the average earnings growth is reduced which is a negative factor for consumer prices. The oil strong sales will also exert the downward pressure on the CPI. The data came in at the level 0,2% y/y against the forecasted 0,1% y/y and 0,1% m/m that was at the forecasted level.

 

The reduced investors’ "risk appetite" shall contribute to the safe assets demand: primarily the Japanese yen, gold and the euro. As the Japanese yen is a funding currency №1 in carry trade operations we were again witness a downtrend development in the pair USD/JPY.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The traditional safe-haven assets remained without support. The euro failed to extend the Friday gains. Only by the end of the trades the pair showed a growth. Earlier the pair decreased feeling additional pressure from the EURGBP cross dynamics which had showed a marked decrease when the Cable tried to recover. According to the Eurostat the Eurozone inflation rose in line with the expectations in December. The inflation rose to 0.2% in December from 0.1% in November. The value corresponds to the preliminary assessment.

 

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

 

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0800 and 1.0730 soon.

 

 

 Pound

 

General overview

 

The sterling fell against the US dollar after Mark Carney said that the UK Central Bank was not planning to raise the interest rates at the moment. The December UK inflation reached 11-month high, as it was expected. According to the National Statistics Office, the consumer prices rose in December by 0.2% y/y, after rising 0.1% in November.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The pair is undervalued and we may expect an upward rebound. The upward bounce potential target are 1.4240, 1.4320.

 

 

Yen

 

General overview

 

The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease. We should notice that the yen had about no chance of a growth. Besides the renewed risk aversion the BoJ statements put pressure on the yen. According to the Bank the falling oil prices is welcome news for the inflation. Haruhiko Kuroda expressed his intention to continue the quantitative easing policy as long as the inflation is stabilized at the target level of 2%.

 

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

 

The indicator shows a strong and non-confirmed sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

After the resistance level of 117.80 breakthrough upward the way to the resistance 118.40 will be opened.

 

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

21.01.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The global stock markets showed an improvement which resulted in the dollar strengthening and the risk assets weakening. The China statistics showed the slow, but overall pretty good growth – the GDP grew by 6.8% y/y against the third quarter 6.9%. Stock indices are optimistic about the China macro block due to increased expectations for the monetary authorities’ additional stimulus.

 

The risky assets demand had a moderate negative impact on the euro as a funding currency. However, the quote decline was temporary - investors are still willing to buy the euro on dips. The United States issued the December inflation rate release. The data came in at the level of 0,1% against the forecasted 0,2%. By the end of the yesterday’s trades the pair EUR/USD slightly fell.

 

Meanwhile, the UK attracted the traders with the labor market data. In particular, the regulator presented the unemployment rates (5,1% against the forecasted 5,2%), Claimant Count Change (-4,3K against the forecasted 2,5K) and Average Earnings (2,0% against the forecasted 2,1%). After a decrease the pair GBP/USD rebounded upwards.

 

The defensive utilities sectors were the leaders of a growth on the leading stock exchanges. That may lead to the further capital flight from the "risky assets". The "risk appetite" decrease has traditionally supported the demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The pair USD/JPY fell on the yesterday’s trades.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The euro zone monthly inflation rate remained unchanged while the core CPI rose by 0.9% y / y. We believe that the contradictory nature of recent data may explain why the euro had not showed any activity. In addition traders are waiting for today’s ECB meeting. The Eurozone has not published any reports except for the Germany producer price index (0,5% against the forecasted 0,4%).

 

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.0925, the next are 1.1050 and 1.1150.

 

 

 Pound

 

General overview

 

The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney energetic speech became the main driver of the Cable fall. According to Mark Carney it is too early to talk about the rate hike, the economic tightening requires the further economic growth and the inflation acceleration. Carney also pointed to the low price pressure in the country. The Carney extremely "soft" comments disarmed the pound which left trying to restore.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

If the price fixates below the support 1.4160, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4080.

 

 

Yen

 

General overview

 

The US and Japanese government bond yield differential once again decreased, thereby increasing the investment attractiveness in the Japanese assets. The US stock correction became the main driver of the safe-assets.

 

The first support resides at 116.20, the next is at 115.40. The first resistance stands at 117.00, the next one is at 117.80.

 

The indicator shows a strong and confirmed sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will go to 116.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 115.40

 

 

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

22.01.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The "black gold" continues to set the tone of the world stock indices and they, in turn, dictate the currencies dynamics. The trading is quite nervous and volatile. The dollar mostly takes positions. The United States published the weekly initial jobless claims report: 293.000 against the forecasted 278.000.

 

The single European currency still can not take the tenth figure that indicates the strong sellers presence. Despite significant sell-off in global stock markets since the beginning of the year - the euro was able to symbolically strengthen over this period. The risk appetite decrease is the demand for the euro as a funding currency. There was Mario Draghi's a press conference where he had announced CPI forecasts. The euro has fallen off after the ECB President Mario Draghi said that they need to "reconsider" the Bank monetary policy at its next meeting in March, when there will be fresh economic forecasts. Only by the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD strengthened.

 

According to the November Unemployment Rate it is too early to write off the United Kingdom economy. Moreover, the pound devaluation against the euro and the dollar will boost exports which have a positive impact on the GDP. This factor reduces the US and UK government bond yield differential in the debt market. The pair pound/dollar increased.

 

Although the yen has strengthened by 2.9% since the beginning of this year we do not see any signal that the downward trend comes to the end. After a slight pause, investors again rushed to get rid of "risky assets". However the pair USD/JPY strengthened by the end of the trades.

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The ECB meeting anticipation was one of the limiting factor for the pair's growth. The market did not expect from the regulator further easing policy steps, but hoped that Draghi would outline the current economic situation in the region and would give hints on the future plans of the regulator. The euro fell after the meeting when Draghi promised to reconsider the current economy policy.

 

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

After the level of 1.0800 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0730 will be opened.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The oil dynamics has quite a serious impact on the world markets in recent years. We believe that the GBP/USD is one of the pairs that suffers most of all from the "black gold" decrease. The pressure on the pound is so strong that even quite good UK labor market data failed to provide a substantial support to the Cable.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The Sterling is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The pair can break the resistance level of 1.4240. After breaking 1.4240 the buyers may go to 1.4320.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

A new wave of safe assets buying again pushed the yen to the north. However, the Bank of Japan slightly diminished the yen ardor when the regulator said that it closely tracked the national currency dynamics. Traders interpreted this comment as a threat to the currency intervention, explaining their fears that a strong yen is not beneficial for the regulator. However, this new did not change the overall bearish picture of the pair.

 

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 117.00. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

 

The price is in the Cloud and in under the Chincou-span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 117.80 and 118.40

 

 

Franc

 

General overview

 

The investor sentiment deterioration again cut the greenback. In addition the latest statistics did not please the markets. The USA inflation slowed to -0.1% m / m in December when investors expected – 0.0%. That might be a negative signal about the faulty state of the economy. This, in turn, may have an additional impact on the traders’ expectations relative to the second Fed rate hike.

 

The price is finding the first support at 0.9960, the next one is at 0.9850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0190.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The Sterling is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

25.01.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The Forex currencies showed an uneven trend, this time focusing not only on investors' sentiment and the commodity segment situation. The ECB meeting and the Mario Draghi's press conference has brought some volatility to the market. The regulator's decision was expected and caused no market reaction (the rate was left unchanged), as opposed to words Draghi, who seems determined to prepare traders for the Central Bank policy revision in March, when the economic forecasts are updated. The ECB President has expressed his concern about the inflation low levels and even noted the threat of consumer prices falling below zero this year. Thus, the bank's promise is clear, and now the market is to price the March monetary policy easing program. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar decreased.

 

The traders' attention was focused on the UK December retail sales. The retail sector growth sales rate made up 4.34% in the first eleven months of 2015. The increase became possible when the labor market showed an upward trend. The UK unemployment rate is now 5.1%, it is the lowest level in 10 years. Although the last year fourth quarter average earnings growth reduced, still it is still higher than a year earlier. The pair pound/dollar slightly decreased after a strong growth.

 

The United States published the secondary market housing sales report. The Mortgage Bankers Association release pointed to the data output worse than the consensus forecast. The refinancing index fell by 5.06% amid the mortgage rates rising. The December FOMC Meeting raised the discount rate by 0.25% which is reflected in the mortgage market. There was real wages decline in November by 0.1% at the same time. The pair dollar/yen showed a growth.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

After Draghi's comments, which were clearly "pigeon", the euro reeled some positions amid the two key Central Banks policy differences. However, it is too early to speak about a significant euro weakening as the US economy shows more and more surprises in recent years. We believe that the Fed might shed some light on its further steps prospects the next week during its planned meeting.

 

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing

 

Trading recommendations

 

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 0.0730 soon. The next target is the level of 1.0630.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

In general, waiting the British Prime Minister Cameron speech in Davos became the main negative driver for the pair. The Prime Minister was supposed to speak about a potential UK withdrawal from the EU. This topic has recently become a serious concern to the British currency which has already significantly lost its position amid the economic situation deteriorating in the country.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The potential growth targets are two levels of support: 1.4320, 1.4400.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

We think that we will hear from the Bank of Japan head similar to the ECB comments on January 29th when the regulator meeting to be held. Meanwhile the Japan CPI growth is 0.19%.

 

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.80. The first resistance stands at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is growing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. After breaking 119.20 the buyers may go to 120.40.

 

 

Franc

 

General overview

 

The world stock markets recovery has led to the dollar renewed demand which strengthened its position against most major currencies, in particular, especially against the so-called safe haven currencies like the yen and the Swiss franc. According to SNB President Jordan the deflation danger in Switzerland does not exist.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 0.9960. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0280.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0190. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0280.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

26.01.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The preliminary Eurozone business activity data came in worse than expected, in fact, the release pointed to a clear deterioration. We believe that report was not a reason for the euro weakening, as it is necessary to wait for more definitive data. The main reason was the Dragi’s performance who hinted at the possible quantitative easing program expansion.

 

The debt market still shows an increase optimism regarding the British assets. The EUR/GBP long positions closure, after the ECB meeting on January the 21st , plays into the Sterling bulls hands. The UK December retail sales fell by 1.0% against the forecast of -0.1%.

 

The Japanese yen has safely returned to the strategic range of 118.40-120.70 which has been controlled by the BoJ entire 2015. Still the BoJ recently moved away from the yen control, focusing on the general economy problems. According to the Finance Ministry the December exports continued to decline. Many economists believe that the Chinese economy weakening is a reason of this decline. Still the yen disregarded this report.

 

The oil market strengthening is a welcome factor for the commodity currencies. However, last Friday “black gold” growth did not support the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The IFO business environment indicator attracted traders’ attention being correlated with the Germany GDP dynamics. The production and non-production PMI slowdown does not inspire and we do not expect to see the release with the data better than the consensus forecast. The risk appetite keeps growing among investors. The stock market bullish sentiment is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency.

 

The first support resides at 1.0800 and then it goes at 1.0730. The first resistance comes in at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-sen is showing a horizontal movement, the Tenkan-sen is heading down. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing

 

Trading recommendations

 

The move below 1.0730 will signal the presence of sellers. The price may go deeper and reach 1.0630 soon. 

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The UK National Statistics Office reported about the retail sales reduction last Friday. Despite the negative release the British pound was in demand that might be a sign of strong buyers presence. 

 

The oil market stabilization will be well received by investors. The Brent quotes rose by 10% last two trading days. As you know the Pound and the oil quotes are closely connected. We may expect the pound growth attempts.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is in a flat.

 

Trading recommendations

 

In the scenario where the buyers are involved the potential growth targets are two levels of resistance: 1.4350, 1.4470. In the event that the sellers manage to force below 1.4080 the downward movement will be continued to the 40th figure. 

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

The S&P 500 index tested the minimum levels of 2015 in the past week after which we saw a strong demand and the price growth. The increased demand for "risky assets" has traditionally been a negative factor for the Japanese yen as the funding currency. The rapid oil quotations growth brought the US stock energy sector in leaders.

 

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.80. The first resistance lies at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is growing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 120.40 is possible.

 

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

27.01.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The United States can please traders with a Conference Board positive report. The January Michigan University consumer confidence indicator came in at fresh 6-month high amid real incomes growing expectations. The average earnings growth was 2.5% at the end of 2015, with an inflation of 0.7%. Thus, the population real incomes increased by 1.78% while the real incomes increased by 0.99% in 2014. Positive data would support the US currency and we do not ignore the "risky assets" demand dynamics.

 

The euro significant strengthening against the dollar was the result of several factors. The very first one is the upcoming Fed meeting today. Traders believe that the FED will not increase the refinancing rate and that decision may weaken the dollar. The Fed will monitor the macro-economic dynamics that demonstrates albeit sluggish, but a growth. The second factor is government debt securities yields growth where the three month bills yield increased from 0.255% to 0.305%.

 

We think that bulls can take a break and we will see a gradual pound decline. The Bank of England left the rate unchanged. Mark Carney, the Bank Governor said that there was no reason to do it. They are ready to reconsider the current situation when the country economy shows a stable growth.  

 

The yen continued to strengthen against the US dollar when the Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso supported the Bank position and its intention to act if needed. The main Bank of Japan target is the inflation rate of 2%. Aso expressed the hope that the regulator would continue its efforts to achieve the price stability, taking into account the economic and price conditions.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The IFO indicator has dropped to its lowest level in eleven months which is a negative factor for the single European currency. This indicator is closely correlated with the Germany GDP dynamics, and its negative data is the first wake-up call for the market. The Germany economic growth slowdown is always painful perceived by traders. 

 

We also note the mechanical engineering and the automotive industries rising pessimism, mainly due to low exports.

 

The first support resides at 1.0800 and then it goes at 1.0730. The first resistance comes in at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-sen is showing a horizontal movement, the Tenkan-sen is heading downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The move below 1.0730 will signal the presence of sellers. The price may reach 1.0630 soon. The level of 1.0925 is an obstacle for the pair’s growth. Shall the EUR/USD breaks that level the pair could escalate up to 1.1050.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The average earnings slowdown coupled with the oil prices collapse help to reduce the short-term inflation expectations. The pound strengthening against the euro during 2015 is putting strong pressure on the British industry. The unemployment rate fell to the level of 5.1%, while the Cable devalued against the euro by 7.5% in the past two months which creates a positive foundation for the second quarter of this year.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The first resistance is at 1.4350, the next one is at 1.4470.

 

We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The buying scenario may become a reality soon. Buyers can leave the Ichimoku cloud behind heading to the resistance levels: 1.4470, 1.4650. In the event that the sellers manage to force below 1.4080 the downward movement will be continued to the 40th figure. 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

The United States can please traders with the positive Consumer Confidence data amid real incomes growing. The real income growth rate peaked in the last nine years which together with low unemployment (5%) contribute to the consumer optimism growth.

 

However, the bond market is showing the USA and Japanese government bond yield differential decrease which does not allow counting on strong price growth.

 

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.80. The first resistance lies at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 120.40 is possible.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

28.01.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The market was able to develop immunity towards the Chinese stock market bad news. The Chinese index again lost more than 6%, still only the gold reacted to this news with a growth the rest currencies remained at their positions. 

 

The US economic data came out neutral. The January service sector business activity index came in at 53.7 versus the December value of 54.3. The forecast was 53.9. The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board showed an increase from 96.3 to 98.1.

 

As expected the Fed statements were quite "dovish". The regulator is concerned about the further economy development and does not exclude the further rate hike in March.

 

Investors stake on the dollar strengthening. According to GfK the Germany consumer confidence index surfaced a decline from 9.4 to 9.3 in February. According to the BBA the December Mortgage Approvals showed 43.975Kwith the expectations of 45K. The December New Home Sales came in at 0.544M. 

 

The Japanese yen is growing on expectations that the Friday Central Bank meeting will be a soft one.  

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

Analysts expect a bearish sentiment to return soon for two reasons. The US corporations pleased investors with the fourth quarter positive report. Secondly, we cannot ignore the oil market dynamics – the Brent and WTI rose by 5% the other day that is possible only in case of risky assets high demand.

 

All the traders' attention was focused on the Fed decision regarding the rate. As it was expected the regulator left the rate unchanged. Still the market is full with rumors that the rate hike will take place the first spring month.  

 

The first support resides at 1.0800 and then it goes at 1.0730. The first resistance comes in at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

 

There is a weak sell signal. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Kijun-sen is showing a horizontal movement, the Tenkan-sen is heading upwards crossing the Tenkan-sen. The pair shall advance the north until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.  

 

 Trading recommendations

 

We expect a flat. The further pair movement depends on what the support or the resistance line the pair breaks. The move below 1.0730 is a bearish signal. The level of 1.0925 break may send the pair up to 1.1050.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

We think that there three reasons to long. We expect the positive mortgage lending data amid the labor market positive trend. According to the Markit the December construction industry also showed growth which confirms the positive trend. The UK low inflation (0.2% in 2015) contributes to a real income increase and is a positive factor for the real estate market.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The first resistance is at 1.4350, the next one is at 1.4470.

 

The sell signal got stronger as the price is moving from the Cloud. The price is still in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are both horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

Daily and weekly technical studies remain bearish. Shall the pair break below 1.4080 the downward movement will be continued to the 40th figure. The upward targets are the resistance levels: 1.4470, 1.4650. 

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

We should expect the pair’s growth amid "risk appetite" growth among investors. The US corporations positive quarterly reports returned "bulls" on the market. The stock market and high-yield cross-rates growth indicate carry trade positions increase and in this regard the yen will be under pressure as the funding currency. The debt market also confirms the USD/JPY upward trend: the US and Japanese government bonds profitability differential are being expanded. 

 

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.80. The first resistance lies at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 120.40 is possible.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

29.01.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The US Federal Reserve is concerned about the financial market turbulence. The Fed statements did not have any effect neither on the EUR/USD pair nor the other assets.

 

The EUR/USD trades were restrained yesterday - investors continue to evaluate the Fed two-day meeting results, the first one in the new year.

 

Germany has surfaced the inflation preliminary data whose growth rate may accelerate from 0.3% to 0.5%. The ECB is cautious about its quantitative easing program, as the Germany inflation dynamics is relatively well. The data came in at the forecasted median. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar showed a growth.

 

The Initial Jobless Claims number showed - 278000. The forecast was 282000. The labor market is relatively stable, even though all visible signs of long-term unemployment growth are seen which has a negative impact on the overall unemployment level. In addition, the expected durable goods declined by 0.6%. However the decline was 5.1%.

 

Yesterday the UK 4th quarter GDP was published. The GDP growth rate was 2.27% for the first nine months of 2015, as it was forecasted. It is worth noting that the first nine months of 2014 the growth rate was 2.87% which indicates the UK economic slowdown phase. The data came in at the forecasted median. The pair pound/dollar increased by the end of the trades.

 

The USD/JPY pair is still trading in a narrow channel. However, concerns that the Bank of Japan will announce the next mitigation measures at the end of the two-day meeting are putting pressure on the yen. Japan published the retail sales which decreased by 1.1% in comparison to the same period in 2014.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The US Federal Reserve left the rate unchanged. The regulator noted the short-term inflation expectations decreased amid the low energy prices. According to the Fed the rate may be increased in March, still its growth depends on the incoming macroeconomic statistics.

 

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing

 

 Trading recommendations

 

We believe the growth will be continued now. The targets are the levels of 1.1050 and 1.1150.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The UK 4th quarter GDP was the main event this week for the country. The industrial production decline and the negative trade balance alongside with the high pound value are negative factors that traditionally impede the economic growth. The fourth quarter service PMI also showed a slowdown. The GDP data came in at the forecasted median: 0.5% (q/q) and 1.9% (y/y).

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

 

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing

 

Trading recommendations

 

We expect the 1.4400 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4480.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

The Bank of Japan will announce the monetary policy meeting results after which we can see the USD/JPY upward trend acceleration. Low energy prices may force the monetary authorities to revise their inflation forecasts and give a hint to investors to the possible further monetary policy easing. As the market is acting proactively, we can assume that many investors may long in advance.

 

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.80. The first resistance stands at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The upward bounce potential targets are 119.20, 120.40. If the price falls it will get to 118.40 and 117.80.

 

 

Franc

 

General overview

 

The Fed left the interest rate in the previous target range of 0.25-0.50% per annum. The rate was changed last month and the market has not seen any noticeable effect yet. The Fed accompanying statement was quite soft, although the regulator promised to raise the rates further.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 0.9960. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0280.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidaing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We advise to short with the first target – 1.0100. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

01.02.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The United States data disappointed traders and became the reason of its weakening. The Initial Jobless Claims number fell to 294 thousand. The Continuing Jobless Claims increased from 2.219 million to 2.268 million which again increases the unemployment risk.

 

The preliminary Germany inflation data coincided with the forecasts, having confirmed the assumption about the price growth acceleration from 0.3% to 0.5%. The Germany retail sales growth rate is slowing from 2.3% to 1.5%. The trades on the pair EUR/USD closed with a decrease.

 

According to the UK National Bureau of Statistics the previous year 4th quarter GDP increased compared with the previous quarter. The economy managed to show a growth of 0.5% in Q4, while the same indicator expanded by only 0.4% in Q3. The UK economy has grown by 2.2% for the entire 2015. By the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD showed a decrease.

 

The Bank of Japan is determined to launch the new monetary stimulus. Unexpectedly, the regulator introduced the negative deposits interest rates. This decision was taken due to the low inflation level and the global financial markets instability. The Central Bank lowered the commercial banks deposits rate to 0.1% from 0.1%. According to the Bank statement, the regulator is ready to go for an even greater rates decrease, if it considers this measure necessary. The asset purchase program amount was maintained at 80 trillion yen. The pair USD/JPY sharply increased.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

Due to the lack of important macroeconomic statistics we shall pay our attention to the world's leading stock exchanges dynamics. Last Friday investors' attention was focused on two reports: the first euro area inflation estimate (the data came in at the forecasted median 0.4% y/y) and the US GDP Quarterly Report.

 

The fourth quarter US GDP preliminary data was expected with strong slowdown from 2.1% to 0.8% but it came in at the level of 0,7%.

 

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

 

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

It may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.0800 and 1.0730.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The UK GDP increased by 2.2% in 2015. The economic slowdown is a negative factor for the currency, but the pound was in a correction phase to the downward trend and the price growth may be continued.

 

According to the USA GDP leading indicators we should not expect positive data. The release came worse then it was expected: 0,7% against the forecasted 0,8%.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

 

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The upward bounce potential target are 1.4320, 1.4400.

 

 

Yen

 

General overview

 

Low energy prices help to reduce the Japanese inflation expectations. The weak retail sales indicate the personal consumption volume reduction which is a negative factor for the economy as a whole as well as for the inflation, in particular.

 

The Central Bank is under pressure from weak economic indicators and the Japanese Government has taken to some extent non-standard solution to low the rate to 0.1% and to maintain the redeemed assets volume at 80 trillion yen a year.

 

The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.20.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The buyers need to break above 121.30 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.20 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

 

Franc

 

General overview

 

By the end of the trades the dollar strengthened against the franc. The United States news flow disappointed traders and contributed to the dollar weakening. Thus, initial jobless claims number fell to 294 thousand. The Continuing Jobless Claims index has increased from 2.219 million to 2.268 million, which again increases the unemployment risk. The durable goods orders decreased by 5.1%, although the market expected a decrease by 0.6%.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0280, the next one is at 1.0370.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0370.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

02.02.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The USA contradictory statistics could not undermine the dollar's strength. According to the preliminary data, the USA economy grew by only 0.7% in the fourth quarter against the forecast of + 0.8% and the previous value of 2.0%. Meanwhile, the personal consumption expenditures index rose in line with expectations at 1.2%. The Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 92.0 against the forecast of 93.0 and the previous value of 93.3. In general, the economic picture is rather mixed. The recent Fed announcements that the country economy slowed down prepared the market to weak GDP data.

 

The January euro zone moderately positive inflation release cooled the bears' ardor who tried to play the card of a future monetary policy easing by the ECB in March. The US manufacturing sector ISM was also expected with negative data. The index came in at the level of 48.2 against the forecasted 48.1. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar strengthened.

 

According to the CBI the negative industrial orders balance dynamics signaled that the production sector PMI report could be worse than the consensus forecast. However the data came in better then forecasted median: 52.9 against 51.8. The pair pound/dollar sharply increased by the end of the trades.

 

The Bank of Japan became the chief newsmaker last week when the Bank had introduced a negative interest rate the first time in its history. According to the BoJ this rate will remain until the regulator sees a stable inflation rate of 2% per year. The pair dollar/yen slightly decreased by the end of the trades.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

According to Draghi the euro zone economy recovery should be supported by the effective policy. In addition, he noted that the fiscal policy should contribute to the recovery process as well.

 

The euro was not surprised by the euro area inflation data. The consumer prices rose 0.4% y/y against the previous value of 0.2%. The core inflation accelerated to 1% in line with expectations. The euro zone published the Markit January Manufacturing PMI: the data came in at 52.3, in line with expectations.

 

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

 

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will be trading in a side corridor between the levels of 1.0925 and 1.0800.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The 10-year UK government bonds yield is decreasing relative to their US and Germany counterparts which reduces the investment attractiveness in the British assets. On Monday, the United Kingdom published the manufacturing PMI. The data came in at the level of 52.9 against the forecasted 51.8.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The buyers need to break above 1.4400 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4480 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

 

Yen

 

General overview

 

The Bank of Japan decision to cut the rate expanded the United States and Japanese government bond yield differential which increases demand for US assets supporting the dollar. The "risky assets" demand pressures the Japanese yen as a carry trade funding currency.

 

The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.20.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The price is likely to form a consolidation under the resistance level of 121.30.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

03.02.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

Risk aversion has weakened the US currency position. The global economy depressing picture became the reason for the growing pessimism. Initially, the risk aversion was triggered by the China report where the manufacturing sector PMI fell from 49.7 to 49.4 while analysts expected a more modest drop to 49.6.

 

The Eurozone December Unemployment Rate showed 10.4%, the forecast was 10.5%. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD decreased.

 

The UK has published the Construction PMI index for January. The index came in at 55.0. The Bank of England revealed the mortgage market statistics: the Mortgage Approvals for December grew by 0.59% to 70.84 thousand, while the Net Lending to Individuals was 3.2 billion pounds for December. Investors expected the PMI reduction compared to the previous month. The forecasted median was 57,5 against the previous 57,8. In fact the index came in at the level of 55,0. The trades on the pair GBP/USD closed with a growth.

 

The 10-year Japanese government bonds yield continued their falling which is a strong bearish factor for the yen. After the Bank of Japan decision to introduce the negative interest rates the US and Japanese securities differential yields have been expanding which increases the investment attractiveness in US assets. However the pair USD/JPY fell on the yesterday’s trades.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The Eurozone published statistics did not impact the pair. The German manufacturing PMI exceeded traders’ expectations, reaching 52.3 against the forecast and the previous value of 52.1. Meanwhile, the Markit Manufacturing PMI has coincided with the forecast at the level of 52.3.

 

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will form a consolidation at the current levels. The buyers need to break above 1.0925 for a steady growth.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The UK favorable statistics supported the pound. The Markit Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.9, exceeding the forecast of 51.8 and the previous value of 52.3. The weak USA statistics supported the GBP/USD as well.

 

The UK published construction PMI for January (55,0 against the forecasted 57,5).We expect the quarterly inflation report on Thursday which may disappoint investors with the revised inflation and GBP estimates to the negative direction.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We expect the 1.4480 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4560.

 

 

Yen

 

General overview

 

The Japanese manufacturing PMI amounted to 52.3 against the forecast of 52.4. The US revealed the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (at the forecasted median 47,8) and the New York ISM (718,9 against the previous 716,6).

 

The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.20.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting

 

 Trading recommendations

 

After the support level of 119.20 breakthrough down the way to the support 118.40 will be opened

 

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

09.02.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

All traders' attention was directed to the USA labor market statistics. Despite the fact that the NFP has not reached even to a modest forecast (it showed 151 000 versus the forecast of 190 000), and the previous value was revised downward, the dollar was able to consolidate its positions.

 

The US Average Hourly Earnings showed a strong jump of 0.5% from the previous 0.0%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate reached a cyclical low level of 4.9%, having fallen unexpectedly by 5.0%. The wages growth rate is crucial for the Fed, pointing to the inflation acceleration prospects that is why the dollar ignored the weak NFP and focused on the Hourly Earnings results. The EU did not present any significant data. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar slightly increased.

 

The Friday's labor market release contributed to the US and UK government bond yield spreads expansion which is traditionally a bearish factor for the British currency. On the other hand, the oil market bulls prefer to long which in its turn positively affects the pound value. However the pair point/dollar rebounded upwards after a decrease.

 

The Monetary Policy Meeting minutes will be published on February 18th. Meanwhile according to the Bank of Japan chairman the volatility in the world markets have a negative impact on business sentiment. The pair dollar/yen sharply fell.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

This Monday was rather meager at the events. The Eurozone GDP data for Q4 will probably not show signs of growth expansion. According to the forecast the GDP shall increase by 0.3% q/q, like in Q3. The recent data showed the both consumers and the business community recent downward trend, so it is unlikely that the growth will be significantly higher in the 1st quarter.

 

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

We advise to consider long positions with the first target – 1.1260. After fixing above the first target, the level 1.1350 will become the next one

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The Bank of England surprisingly well responded to the recent volatility increase in the market, despite the potential capital flows weakening to the UK and the financial services sector potential problems.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The buyers need to break above 1.4480 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.4560 and 1.4630 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

 

Yen

 

General overview

 

The US and Japanese government bonds yield differential expanded. That fact, as usual, increases the investment attractiveness in the US assets and thereby supported the dollar.

 

The first support resides at 115.40, the next is at 114.60. The first resistance stands at 116.20, the next one is at 117.00.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

After the support level of 115.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 114.60 will be opened.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

10.02.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The market got again concerned about the global economy state when the China’s report had indicated the foreign exchange reserves reduction to the 2012 minimum. The oil dynamics did not contribute to the market optimism growing as well having shown the signs of reduction.

 

The Germany Industrial Production for December 2012 was worth paying our attention. The production orders increased by 1.2%. The forecast was 0.4%. The pair euro/dollar by the end of the trades increased.

 

The UK National Statistics Office published the trade balance report (the previous value was -10,64B; the forecast was -10,40B; in fact -9,92B). The pound strengthening against the euro is a negative factor for the country exports as it reduces the products competitiveness. According to the British Industry Confederation exporters suffer from excessively high national currency rate. The trades on the pair pound/dollar closed with a growth.

 

Due to the lack of economic news that could be a driver for the market the traders' attention was entirely focused on the stock market dynamics. The yen was traditionally supported by the risk aversion. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen decreased.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The Eurozone release pushed the price down - the Sentix Investor Confidence for February has fallen to 6.0 from 9.6 against the forecast which was 7.6. Still a new risk aversion wave limited the euro decline. The dollar sales were also due to the weak USA Labor Market Conditions report where the index fell to 0.4 from 2.9.

 

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1440

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1350. After breaking 1.1350 the buyers may go to 1.1440.

 

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The government bonds yield significantly reduced against the US Treasuries and the Germany bonds due to the capital outflow from the British assets. This factor, in its turn, left a negative impact on the Cable. Only by the end of the trades the Sterling slightly strengthened.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

 

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We may expect the consolidation at the current levels. The downward bounce potential target is 1.4400. If the price grows it will break above 1.4480.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

The debt market 2-year US Treasury bonds yields continue their falling that also deprives support from the dollar. The oil prices drop dragged down the global stock markets, thus supporting the safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen and US Treasuries.

 

The first support resides at 114.60, the next is at 113.80. The first resistance stands at 115.40, the next one is at 116.20.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 114.60 and 113.80.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

11.02.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The traders' concerns about the world economy growth slow down in general and the energy sector's fate in particular caused a new wave of stock indices selling. The threat of large slate companies bankruptcy alongside with the Deutsche Bank problems whose shares have fallen to the record lows, discouraged investors from trading with high-risk assets.

 

The Germany industrial production and trade balance weak data for December once again supported our assumptions that we should not count on the euro significant increase in the medium term. The industrial production volume decreased by 2.2% while it had shown growth of 0.8% in 2015. In this regard, we see a steady negative trend and it is not highly profitable to have a strong euro. The pair EUR/USD closed the trades with a decrease.

 

The UK published the industrial production release for December. The index came in at -1.1% m/m. The pair GBP/USD quickly left the lows, despite the weaker-than-expected manufacturing industry data. The pair GBP/USD slightly increased.

 

Janet Yellen speech to Congress is this week key event. Her attitude about the economy state and the monetary policy future shall determine the further prospects of the dollar which has recently weakened. The pair USD/JPY fell by the end of the trades.

 

According to Janet Yellen there are risks in the US economy which may slow down their plans to increase the interest rates in short-term. The economic China upheavals leave a negative impact on the US economy and the traders' inflation expectations continue declining. The Fed chairman did not talk about the possibility of a later interest rates increase, still the mentioned risks made her tone soft highlighting concerns about the Fed rate hikes this year.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The industrial production in Germany fell by 1.2% against an average forecast of 0.4. Meanwhile, the trade surplus narrowed to 18.8 billion euros from 20.5 billion euros, while exports and imports have fallen by 1.6%. The euro ignores the warning signals from Greece, whose problems may soon again be in the center of our attention.

 

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

We believe the growth will be continued now. After the level of 1.1260 breakthrough the first target is the level 1.3670.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

We should pay attention to industrial production for December. The PMI positive dynamics allowed counting on the data slightly better than the consensus forecast. Manufacturing index for December came in at -0.2% m/m, -1.7% y/y. The forecast was 0.1% m/m, -1.4% y/y.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4630.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The buyers need to break above 1.4560 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4630 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

The debt market dynamics indicates the dollar possible strengthening: the 10-year US and Japanese government bonds yields differential expanded which increases the investing attractiveness to the US assets. Traders followed Janet Yellen comments as her speech could easily reverse the trend, or on the contrary, strengthen it. After this speech the dollar weakened against the yen.

 

The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The downward movement will be continued. When the price consolidates below the level of 113.80 it may go to the level 113.00.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

12.02.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The dollar showed mixed trades against its major rivals. The stock markets have tried to return to a growth, still Janet Yellen's soft comments regarding possible returning to the quantitative easing program, have caused some concerns among investors. The head of the Fed talked about negative interest rates. According to her she does not know any reason the Fed might introduce the negative rates in the nearest future.

 

In economic news, the leading stock markets showed an upward trend which is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency. However the pair euro/dollar showed a growth by the end of the trades.

 

The UK industrial production weak report indicates that it is not necessary to count on the pound significant growth. The industrial production volume decreased by 1.79% in the last year fourth quarter compared with the same year third quarter. The pair pound/dollar slightly grew after a decrease.

 

Yesterday the US published the Initial Jobless Claims for January at the level of 269K (the previous value was 285K; the forecast was 287K). The short positions cutting signals about investors' "risk appetite" growth that traditionally has a negative impact on the yen value as a funding currency. Nevertheless, the pair dollar/yen fell to the new minimums.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

Despite the Janet Yellen's soft comments, she made it clear that the rate hike is still on the agenda, but, as before, it will depend on incoming economic data and the situation in the financial markets. A certain portion of the negative comments for the euro came from Prata, the ECB representative. According to him the regulator may use some instrument to solve problems with liquidity.

 

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1440

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1260 and 1.1150. We don’t exclude that the pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1350. After breaking 1.1350 the buyers may go to 1.1440.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The pair ignored the weak UK statistics. The industrial output fell in January by 1.1% m/m and 0.4% y/y vs. -0.1% and + 1.0% and the previous result at the level of -0.8% and +0.7%, respectively. The NIESR GDP estimate for January was + 0.4% versus the previous result of + 0.6%.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4630.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

If the price breaks 1.4480 up it will open the way to the resistance level of 1.4560. If the price fixates below the support 1.4400, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4320.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

It is impossible to ignore the rumors that the Bank of Japan is ready, if necessary, to enter the foreign exchange market with some interventions. This turn of events can not be excluded, as the yen has strengthened by 5.2% in February, the price dropped to its lowest level in 12 months.

 

The first support resides at 111.40, the next is at 110.60. The first resistance stands at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 112.20 and 113.00. If the price goes to the support level of 111.40 and breaks it the next target will by 110.60.

 

 

Franc

 

General overview

 

If the FED expects further growth in wages, the real incomes increase will not allow the core inflation to go far below the level of 2%. In this regard, the interest rate may be increased during the current year. However, nobody expects changes in the monetary policy at the next FOMC meeting on March.

 

The first support resides at 0.9660, the next is at 0.9580. The first resistance stands at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The first decrease target is the level 0.9660, the next one is 0.9580. We do not exclude the growth to 0.9750 and further to the level of 0.9850.

 

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

15.02.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The US dollar was under pressure last Friday, as concerns about the global economic outlook caused a fall of stock markets. The demand for the safe-haven assets: the yen and the euro, have been increased. Chinese market was closed due to the Chinese New Year celebration.

 

Japanese Finance Minister made it clear to investors that the rapid Japanese yen growth could lead to the regulator’s intervention. If necessary, the bank will take all the necessary measures to limit the yen’s growth. According to Aso: the exchange rate has been recently showing quite sharp fluctuations that differ from the BoJ’s financial policy.

 

According to Eurostat the Eurozone GDP (q/q) remained at the same level of 0.3%.  

 

The US retail sales report for January was published on Friday. The forecast was 0.1%, the index came in at 0.2%. The Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index for February (in the preliminary estimate) was expected with a growth by 92.6 from 92.0 in January. The index came in less than it was expected having shown 90.7.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

Germany’s GDP grew by 0.3% in Q4, in line with expectations. The index remained unchanged from the previous quarter. German GDP increased by 2.1% on an annual basis in the last quarter, which was below the expected 2.3%. The 10-year government bonds in Germany showed growth to their counterparts from the US and the UK, which increased the investment attractiveness in European assets.

 

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1440.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The decrease targets are remained the same, the levels of support: 1.1150 and 1.1050. The pair may grow to the resistance level of 1.1440.  

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The Britain Construction PMI rose + 1.5% m/m and 0.5% y/y from -0.5% m/m and -1.1% y/y. Housing building showed growth in the UK in Q4: + 4.1% q/q from 5.7% q/q in Q3. Meanwhile, the dollar remains volatile. According to Janet Yellen there was a good reason to believe that the US economy would remain on a path of a moderate growth that would allow the Fed to conduct monetary policy "gradual change".

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4630.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. 

 

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The break and consolidation above 1.4480 will open the way to the resistance levels of 1.4630 and 1.4700. After the drop below the support of 1.4400 we may see a decrease to 1.4320.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso warned investors about the Japanese yen rapid growth, saying that the government may take necessary measures if necessary to limit the yen’s growth. A number of banks have raised their forecasts that we may see an intervention by the Japanese Bank soon. The JP Morgan expects the further monetary policy liberalization after the Bank of Japan meeting on March 14-15.

 

The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The potential growth target is the resistance level 117.50. If the price goes to the support level of 111.40 and breaks it the next target will by 110.60.

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

16.02.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The stock markets sentiment had significantly improved which forced the risky assets to retreat after a recent rally. The oil quotations recovery coupled with the Deutsche Bank news. The bank is planning to buy back bonds for the amount of 5 billions dollars. All these factors supported the demand for the dollar.

 

No important news were published yesterday. We believe that the euro won't show significant growth this week. The industrial production volume in the euro area decreased by 0.31% at the end of 2015, compared with a growth of 0.47% a year earlier. The strong euro is not in the European industrialists' interests and the ECB certainly understands that. The pair euro/dollar fell on the yesterday’s trades.

 

The 10-year government bonds yield is increasing in relation to their counterparts (USA and Germany) which increases the investments attractiveness in British assets. In addition, the Brent failing had its positive impact on the British currency as expected. Only by the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar slightly decreased.

 

Japan had published the Q4 GDP, the report did not show any surprises. The decreased household spending and the negative trade balance indicate an economic growth reduction. The 4th quarter GDP reached the level of 1.4% (y/y) vs. 1.2% (y/y) and 0.4% (q/q) vs. 0.3% (q/q). The pair dollar/yen shows a growth.

 

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The pair EUR/USD fell at the yesterday’s trades. Earlier the escape from the risky assets alongside with the contradictory Eurozone statistics became the reasons for the pair’s growth. The Eurozone economy grew by 0.3% q/q in the fourth quarter, exceeding the forecast. The ECB President Mario Draghi’s performance drew traders’ attention yesterday. According to him the economic recovery is happening at a moderate pace.

 

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1260, 1.1350.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The GBPUSD could not hold its positions amid the widespread buying of the dollar. The dollar became so popular after the strong US retail sales. The report had shown that the inflation kept accelerating in the country, as a result the Fed might review its plans about the rates rising. The lack of UK statistics made traders turn their views to the oil dynamics.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

After the trend line 1.4400 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4320 will be opened. We don’t exclude that the pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.4480. After breaking 1.4480 the buyers may go to 1.4560.

 

 

 Yen

 

General overview

 

Weak Japanese GDP put pressure on the yen. The strong yen had a negative impact on the Japanese exports. That fact can make the monetary authorities take additional measures.

 

The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

The approach to the level of 114.60 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 113.80, 113.00.

 

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

 

17.02.2016

 

Fundamental analysis

 

The dollar started the new trading week on a positive note. The US currency purchase supported the positive sentiment for the world stock exchange. Even China's return to the market after long holidays did not spoil that sentiment. The imports and exports volume from China decreased by 18.8% and 11.2%, respectively in January.

 

The banking sector shares outperformed the market in Europe. Investors' "risk appetite" was growing which is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency. Germany has published the ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment for February. The index showed 1.0 (the previous value was 10.2; the forecast was 3.2). The pair euro/dollar fell.

 

The UK published the inflation report for January. A strong labor market pointed out that CPI growth (in annual terms) could be a little better than the consensus forecast (0.4%). The unemployment rate for November decreased by 5.1%, while wages increased by 1.02%. However the CPI came in at the forecasted median 0,3%. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar sharply fell.

 

The Japanese negative macroeconomic statistics keeps showing correction. GDP decreased by 0.4% in the fourth quarter. The volume of industrial production has been reducing for the second year in a row and the negative trend accelerated from 1.91% to 2.49% in 2015. The sharp yen's strengthening, that we saw in the beginning of the year, carries additional risks to the Japanese economy. The pair dollar/yen is consolidating after a decrease.

 

 

Technical analysis

 

Euro

 

General overview

 

The news that Bundesbank lowered its inflation growth forecast for 2016 pressured the euro. The Bundesbank lowered the forecast to + 0.25% from 1.1% amid the cheap oil. Mario Draghi made it clear in his performance that the regulator was ready to revise its policy at the next meeting. He stressed that the monetary policy would remain accommodative for an extended period. Draghi’s soft statements only increased the pressure on the euro.

 

The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260

 

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

 Trading recommendations

 

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1050 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0925.

 

 

Pound

 

General overview

 

The United Kingdom published the inflation report for January: Consumer price index came in at 0.8% m/m and 0.3% y/y. Producer Price Index was published as well. The index showed -0.7% m/m and -1.0% y/y.

 

The oil market kept showing decrease which played into the bears’ hand.

 

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

 

Trading recommendations

 

We expect the 1.4240 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.4160.

 

 

Yen

 

General overview

 

The strong yen reduced the products competitiveness in foreign markets. The products competitiveness is what the Japanese industry needs most of all now. We believe we can still get a new batch of verbal intervention until the end of the month, which will make bears close short positions. The short positions closure shall contribute to the quotations growth.

 

The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40.

 

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

 

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

 

Trading recommendations

 

The buyers need to break above 114.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 115.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.

 

 

 

 *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman