ValdisTF Posted March 16, 2015 Author Share Posted March 16, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 17.03.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar stopped its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 100.20, setting earlier the fresh 11-year high. The pair EUR/USD was under pressure due to the energy prices decrease. The Brent oil quotations fell by 4.4%. Against this negative background, the pair euro/dollar decreased. Nevertheless the pair recovered some losses at the end of the day. The UK 10-year bond yields decrease to its US and Germany increased pressure on the GBP/USD. The oil market sales and the British pound strong growth against the euro make the Mark Carney’s statements about the UK monetary policy easing very realistic. However after a decrease the pair pound/dollar grew. On the first trading day the US dollar managed to strengthen against its Japanese competitor – the pair USD/JPY showed a consolidation at the end of the day. This symbolic increase is explained by the US stock market weakness after the US producer price index negative macroeconomic statistics and the consumer sentiment releases from the University of Michigan. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The US ISM manufacturing index has been showing decline for four consecutive months, indicating the industrial production slowdown. Mark that the ISM manufacturing sector employment component fell to its lowest level in February since April 2014. The euro has been actively updating the price lows the third week in a row. The price decrease was followed with the increased volumes. The pair slightly grew and broke through the resistance level of 1.0550. The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670 the next one is at 1.0790. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued amid the Chief of the ECB M. Draghi’s speach. The pair may go to 1.0420 and 1.0280 soon. Pound (GBP) General overview The cross-rate EUR/GBP short positions closing will put little pressure on the British pound. However, the US industrial production moderately negative release for February will deter bears from active sales. The UK bond yields declined in relation to the US and Germany analogues, indicating the low demand for the British pound. The downward trend was stopped at the mark of 1.4730. Taking into consideration the first trading day weak volatility, the correction was formed. The resistance level of 1.4800 was broken through. The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The sellers need to break below 1.4800 for a steady decrease. The way to the marks of 1.4650, 1.4500 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen (JPY) General overview Risk appetite returned to investors which will support the demand for the pair. However, today we should not count on the strong price growth – the US moderately negative macroeconomic statistics will act as a deterrent for the bulls. Industrial production is a cyclical indicator and its reduction indicates the economic growth slowdown. The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential target are 122.40. If the price falls it will get to 119.20. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 17, 2015 Author Share Posted March 17, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 18.03.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 99.55. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the US negative macroeconomic statistics. The industrial production release went worse than the forecasted medians that cheered bulls to long. In the light of this, the pair euro/dollar increased at the end of the day. During the day the GBP/USD was in demand as well. The US industrial production weak macroeconomic statistics once again showed that the Fed does not need to rush the interest rates increase. However, at the end of day the pair GBP/USD quotations decreased. Yesterday there was the lateral trend within the pair USD/JPY. On the one hand, the US industrial production weak release is a negative factor for the bulls. On the other hand, the more negative releases now come from overseas the more likely that the Fed will again hold conservative views and this factor will support the demand for the stock markets. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The traders’ attention will be focused on the German ZEW index data publication. In March the ZEW current conditions index changed to 55.1 from 45.5 while the ZEW expectations index increased to 54.8 from 53.0. In addition the euro area data showed that the CPI came out with the + 0.6% m/m -0.3% y/y in February. There was a corrective price rebound upwards from the support level of 1.0455 with the following level of 1.0550 breakthrough. The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670 the next one is at 1.0790. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential target is 1.0670. If the price falls it will get to 1.0420. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK 10-year bond yields have been declining for four consecutive trading days regarding to their US and Germany counterparts that is a negative factor for the "cable" and will put pressure on the British pound. The low oil prices make the UK key rate decline a real event and against this background we mark the bearish sentiment predominance. The corrective growth broke through the resistance level of 1.4800. The pair was not able to fixate above this level and decreased below it. The upward correction volumes were in the reduced zone. The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 1.4800 may lead to a price consolidation followed by a rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.4650. Yen (JPY) General overview The Bank of Japan governor, Kuroda said that the probability of inflation increase to 2% in 2015 is very high. The salaries increase is important for the inflation growth to 2%. Kuroda noted that the oil prices decline was unexpected, the oil prices decrease influences the inflation in Japan that will be weakened by autumn. More than a week the price has been consolidating below the resistance level of 121.60. This fact gives a good signal for the further bullish trend confirmation. The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 19.03.2015 Fundamental analysis The main market attention was directed to the Fed meeting release and to the Ms. Yellen speech. Yellen did not say anything concrete about the rates. Yellen’s speech did not support the dollar and it fell temporally. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the Germany business climate moderately positive release from the ZEW institute. The indicator has been showing growth for 5 consecutive months and went out to the highest level since February 2014. The release points out to the investors’ positive expectations about the Eurozone locomotive prospects. At the end of the day the pair euro/dollar increased. Yesterday the pair GBP/USD was under pressure as well. The EUR/GBP short positions closing has increased after the ZEW institute publication which caused the pound decrease. But then bears took profit that caused the technical rebound in the market. At the end of the day the pair GBP/USD grew. The pair USD/JPY has been in a narrow flat for three trading days. At the end of the day the US weak macroeconomic statistics supported bears. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The key week day has come for the entire Forex market. Late at night the Fed announced its two-day meeting monetary policy results. The inflation, retail sales and industrial production macroeconomic releases clearly point out to the lack of appropriate monetary tightening. The level of 1.0550 breakthrough was followed by the price increase to the resistance level of 1.0670. The level testing has led to the consolidation formation. Then the break upwards though this level happened. The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790 the next one is at 1.0925. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.0790. After breaking 1.0790 the buyers may go to 1.0925. Pound (GBP) General overview The Bank of England monetary policy last meeting minutes did not support the British pound. In early March the unemployment reduction with the average earnings growth have intensified the UK inflation expectations. From the American monetary regulator, on the contrary, we expected "pigeon" rhetoric in relation to the monetary policy tightening. The support level of 1.4650 has twice stopped the sellers. The first level testing was followed by a slight correction upwards; the second one has led to the short-term consolidation and a sharp increase. The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4880. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward moveent and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.4920 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.5015, 1.5100 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen (JPY) General overview The trading has been held for seven days amid the weak volatile consolidation in anticipation of the strong news – the Fed economic forecasts, the Federal Open Market Committee FOMC statement, the Fed Chairman Yellen speech which came out yesterday. Yellen did not say anything concrete about the rates changes. Yellen’s vague statements did not support the dollar at all. The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 120.40, 119.20. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 19, 2015 Author Share Posted March 19, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 20.03.2015 Fundamental analysis The trading week central event was news when the FED announced its two-day meeting monetary policy results. The weak macroeconomic statistics does not leave the FED any choice but not to rush with the interest rate growth. The Fed lowered its forecast to the current year average rate: 0.625% instead of 1.125% as it was expected in December 2014. The GDP and inflation forecasts for the next three years also have been decreased. The FOMC governor Janet Yellen pointed out to the strong dollar as the main reason for the weak exports. Against this background, we have seen massive longs closure within the US dollar and the main dollar competitors’ strong growth. However the dollar recovered at the yesterday’s trades. The Eurozone has not published any important reports. Of course the US Federal Reserve accompanying statement will contribute to the dynamics. But now we should not count on the euro substantial growth because of the fact that the difference in the regulators’ sentiments is too high. The trades on the EUR/USD closed with a decrease. The UK has not published any important report. It should also be noted that the salary average level data showed a decline, suggesting the inflation pressure further decrease, although, the pound has showed its growth. The growth was short-term and the pair pound/dollar decreased again. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The Fed has sent the dollar into the knockout. The shorts global closure at forex and commodity markets indicates the US dollar corrective movement development. The United States has published the last year payments balance report for the 4th quarter. During this period the US dollar has risen by 5% in relation to its main competitors (USDX) which has a negative impact on the trade balance. Nevertheless, the dollar recovered its losses. Buyers were able to revise the price to 1.0925. The test turned out to be short-term and was followed by the active decrease. The support levels of 1.0790 and 1.0670 were broken. The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670 the next one is at 1.0790. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.0550. Pound (GBP) General overview The 4th quarter payments balance weak release will increase pressure on the dollar. Traders significantly overestimated the UK labor market moderately negative release. The unemployment remained at the same level as the average earnings have declined, but the employment growth by the ILO methodology indicates the positive trend continuation the next months. The pair pound/dollar has tested the strong resistance level of 1.5100 for its strength. The level testing was at the increased volume, but without breakthrough. The pair rebounded downwards and broke through the support levels of 1.5015, 1.4920, 1.4800. The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We believe the falling will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4650. Yen (JPY) General overview The US stock market responded positively to the FOMC meeting results. The Fed does not rush to tighten monetary policy and bulls once again rushed to the stock market. Institutional investors will continue to be funded with the cheap yen which will put pressure on the Japanese currency. The US payments balance negative release will freeze the bulls’ enthusiasm for a time. However, the pair grew again. The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 121.60. After breaking 1.3665 the buyers may go to 122.40. Franc (CHF) General overview The Swiss National Bank monetary policy decision can affect the pair USD/CHF dynamics. It is expected that the central bank will maintain the same position. The pair is under the market negative attitude pressure, demand for the Swiss franc within the growing pair franc/yen and the Switzerland ZEW economic sentiment indicator growth to -37.9 in March from -73.0 in February. The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9950, the next one is at 1.0160. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9950. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0160. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 21, 2015 Author Share Posted March 21, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 23.03.2015 Fundamental analysis We saw the volatility hike within the major pairs last week. After the US dollar strong weakening and the Fed meeting results announcement- the dollar was able to compensate some of the lost. Investors again rushed to long with the US dollar at the attractive levels. Only the 4th quarter US last year payment balance release is worth noting - the deficit increased by 113.5 billion dollars which confirms the dollar negative revaluation effect for the economy. The current year first quarter also does not promise anything good to the US and against this background, the remaining spring months the US dollar will be extremely difficult to rise up. The euro market the was determined after the fact that the ECB launched the quantitative easing program. The liquidity injections will put pressure on the European currency for a long time. Great Britain stands almost on the same level with the United States in regard with the regulators’ attitude towards the monetary policy course. Although Carney said that there was no reason to rush with the monetary policy tightening, the situation could change at any time and the Bank of England may start the interest rate increase. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview By the end of 2014 the US payments balance had increased by 412.93 billion dollars. The UK and Germany 10-year negative bond yields continued their decline which can spur demand for the EUR/GBP cross-rate and this face is positive for the euro. The US dollar returned back its position on the increased volume. The price decreased to the support level of 1.0670. The pair rebounded from this level and rose above the resistance level of 1.0790. The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925 the next one is at 1.1050. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The price is likely to go to the support level of 1.0670. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK 10-year bond yields are rapidly falling relative to their United States and Germany counterparts which put pressure on the "cable". However, if the Brent crude oil quotes begin an upward movement, the pound will also be able to compensate some lost ground. The price decline was on the increased volume and it decreased to the support near 1.4800. The price has broken the support level of 1.4800 for five times, but for short time. This time the pair rebounded upwards again and broke through the resistance level of 1.4800 and 1.4920. The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The pair can fall to the support level of 1.4800. After breaking 1.4800 the sellers may go to 1.4650. Yen (JPY) General overview In the absence of the US and Japan important macroeconomic statistics traders may focus their attention to the bond market dynamics. The FOMC "dovish" rhetoric opens the way for the US stock market to the new highs that will strengthen demand for the risky assets and therefore the "safe- haven" yen will be unattractive for traders. Sellers tried to break through the strong support level of 120.40. But the pair could not fixate below and rebounded upwards. The growth was short term and the pair fell again and broke through the support level of 120.40. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling. Trading recommendations The potential growth target is the resistance level of 121.60. Franc (CHF) General overview The market’s negative attitude towards the franc is caused by the Swiss National Bank decision, made up on the last week, to leave interest rates at the level of 0.75%, its inflation forecast for 2015 and 2016 and the bank statement about its readiness to prevent the franc growth. The pair is also supported by the market improving attitude towards the dollar. The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9950, the next one is at 1.0160. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9950. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0160. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 23, 2015 Author Share Posted March 23, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 24.03.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 98. There was not any important macroeconomic statistics. On Friday traders continued to take profits with longs. Last week the Federal Reserve made it clear to investors that a strong dollar is an obstacle to the sustainable economic growth. In the light of this traders got rid of the US dollar and there was a steady demand for the major currencies. The pair EUR/USD has grown, the pair GBP/USD consolidated, and the pair USD/JPY decreased at the end of the day. The current week economic calendar must be in favor of the US dollar. According to the IMM CFTC the market is still holding excessively long dollar positions. Disappointment in the business activity or inflation can bring to the next phase the dollar longs reduction in the short term. However, the dollar should keep the bullish trend in the medium-term, taking into consideration the monetary policy difference between the US and the major competing countries. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview This week we expect the Germany economic indicators activity and the US inflation publication. Traders do not rush with the positions opening amid the coming news. At the end of the last week, the euro showed a steady growth which lays a good foundation for the positive trend continuation. Buyers have come to the resistance level of 1.0925 for the second time on the increased volume and broke it upwards. The formed consolidation in this level area can cause a slight rebound downwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0790. The price is finding the resistance at 1.1050. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The downward bounce potential target is 1.0790. The support level of 1.0790 testing will be followed by the euro growth. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK manufacturing sector shows a growth that allows us to count on the British Industry Confederation positive release. On the contrary, the United States will not please traders with the strong macroeconomic data. It is observed the Germany and the UK 10-year bond yields reduction on the bond market which will act as a deterrent for the bulls. The pair is trading around the level of 1.4920. The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.5015 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5100 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen (JPY) General overview Investors still have "risk appetite" which will put pressure on the Japanese yen as the funding currency. American benchmarks are set to test the historic highs which is a bullish factor for the pair. The current levels are attractive for investors who count on the uptrend continuation. The pair broke through the channel lower bound of 120.40-122.00 and continues its corrective decline. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling. Trading recommendations The price is likely to go to the support level of 119.20. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 24, 2015 Author Share Posted March 24, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 25.03.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar has opened the trading week on the minor noteб but showed a different directed trades on the yesterday’s trading - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.17. The pair EUR/USD was again the growth leader still the dollar managed to regain some ground yesterday. The Germany and the US bond yields reduction increased the euro bullish sentiment. We got the CPI from the United States. The PPI and the retail sales negative releases did not allow us to count on the strong data release. During the day the GBP/USD on the contrary remained under pressure. The British Industry Confederation has reported the production orders reduction due to the "cable" revaluation. At the moment quotations reached the mark of 1.4837, but then there was a rebound in the market. The UK and the US 10-year negative bond yield spread are declining which is a positive factor for the British pound. In the dispute between bulls and bears the winner was not revealed during the day. The US secondary market housing sales negative macroeconomic statistics encouraged bears to short. However, the US stock market growth held back the yen from the strong growth. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The traders’ attention will be focused on the Germany PMI manufacturing sector release. The single European currency devaluation with the geopolitical tensions decrease is positive factors for the manufacturing sector. We expect the data output at the level or slightly better than the forecasted medians that will support the pair. The euro strengthened against the US dollar. Its active growth was followed by the resistance level of 1.0925 breakthrough. The pair could not fixate above this level and fell below it. The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 1.0790 may lead to a price rebound upwards. Pound (GBP) General overview During the day traders may win back the UK and the US inflation releases. Last week the Bank of England signaled to traders that the inflation increase is directly proportional to the wages rapid growth. Taking into account the fact that the UK average salary decreased in January it is now extremely difficult to expect the inflation surge. Buyers do not hurry to continue the upward trend after the level of 1.4920 breakthrough. The price rebounded downwards and the trade stopped under the resistance level of 1.4920. The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4800, 1.4650. Yen (JPY) General overview The US negative macroeconomic statistics that we receive more recently deprives the dollar support. The inflation release for February also will not please traders with the strong data. On the other hand, demand for the risky assets is still preserved which is a negative factor for the low-yielding Japanese yen. The pair dollar/yen consolidated near the psychological level of 120.00. Then the support level of 119.20 was tested. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 120.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 121.60. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 26, 2015 Author Share Posted March 26, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 26.03.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar could compensate some of the lost positions, but then it fell again - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.15. The pair EUR/USD tested the psychological level of 1.1000 amid the Germany manufacturing PMI positive release. The indicator exceeded the annual average which indicates the manufacturing sector positive trend development. Traders fixed profits with the long positions as a result there was a technical rebound. The downward rebound was short-term and the pair increased again. The GBP/USD was under pressure trying its very best to reach the level of 1.5015. The UK inflation slowed down to the level of 0% on the annualized basis in February which encouraged bears to short. The pair USD/JPY has been trading in the flat. The UK inflation report coincided with the traders’ expectations and against this background traders closed short positions which allowed the US dollar to demonstrate its growth to the level of 119.97 at the moment. However, the US stock market weakness did not allow bulls to finish the trading day on the positive note. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview Our attention will be drawn to the IFO institute publication. The ZEW and PMI indicators show the optimistic sentiment predominance in the German business community. We received positive data. The bond market trend also confirms the upward movement development. The Germany and the US 10-year negative bond yields are declining which is a positive factor for the euro. There was the level of 1.0925 testing. The pair did not fixate under this level and rebounded upwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The pair can fall to the support level of 1.0790. Pound (GBP) General overview We expect the US durable goods orders publication. American consumers are now set to save more than spend and in this regard it is difficult to count on the strong data. We still cannot count on the strong quotations growth. The pair EUR/GBP cross-rate quotations growth amid the UK and Germany negative bond yields reduction had a negative impact on the pound. The pair rebound from the resistance level of 1.4920 led to the consolidation formation. The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015. There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The sellers need to break below 1.4800 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.4650 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen (JPY) General overview The US macroeconomic statistics will not be able to please traders with strong data which is a negative factor for the dollar. The day before there has been the lack of investors' risk appetite which traditionally causes demand for the Japanese yen as traders close their positions within the carry trade. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 119.20 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 120.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 27, 2015 Author Share Posted March 27, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 27.03.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar recovered after it was again under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 96.97. During the day the pair EUR/USD once tested the level of 1.1050 after the US durable goods orders weak data publication. However, bulls were unable to consolidate near this level and as a result the day ended with the quotations fall. The British Bankers' Association mortgage lending positive report along side with the US negative statistics let the pair GBP/USD close the trading day in the "red zone" – the British pound has fallen. The pair USD/JPY was dominated by the bullish sentiment. The durable goods orders decline in the United States has increased pressure on the US stock market which has caused the demand for the Japanese yen. By the end of the day the pair dollar/yen has grown. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview Investors will focus their attention on the bond market dynamics. The 10-year Germany/USA and Germany/UK negative bond yields have reduced which is a positive factor for the euro. It is also necessary to note the "black gold" price increase which is also a positive factor for the single European currency. After the price consolidation below 1.1050 and this level test the pair rebounded downwards and broke through the support level of 1.0790. The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0790, 1.0670. Pound (GBP) General overview The National Statistics Office has published the February UK retail sales release. Leading indicators pointed out to the moderately positive data output and the release came out better then the forecasted medians. The 10-year UK bond yields are declining relative to their US and Germany analogues which is a bearish factor for the British pound. The consolidation was followed by the pound growth. Then the pair decreased. Trades are held below the downward trend line of 1.4920. The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015. There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The pair can fall to the support level of 1.4800. After breaking 1.4800 the sellers may go to 1.4650. Yen (JPY) General overview The dollar rose at the end of the trades. We shall pay our attention to the stock market dynamics. The risky assets demand continues to decline, contributing to the bearish trend development. In the light of this, the Japanese yen will feel like "fish in water." There was the strong support level of 119.20 breakthrough. The bears strengthened their positions amid this breakthrough. Nevertheless, the pair increased above this level. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential growth target is the resistance level of 120.40. Franc (CHF) General overview There has been published the Switzerland February consumer activity indicator by UBS - it showed 1.19 against 1.11 in January. The Swiss franc changed a little bit against the dollar after the release output. We should note that the franc closed the trades with its decrease relative to the US dollar. The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9950. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9950. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 28, 2015 Author Share Posted March 28, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 30.03.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar was able to compensate some of the lost positions - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.65. The pair EUR/USD showed an increase to the level of 1.1052 amid the strong demand for crude oil, but then bulls took profits that caused quotations decrease near 1.0830. At the end of the day the pair euro / dollar has decreased. The UK retail sales positive release encouraged bulls to long. At the moment quotations reached the mark of 1.4993, but bulls failed to consolidate in this area as a result we had a technical rebound. However, the trading day within the pair GBP/USD ended with the quotations increase. The pair USD/JPY was trading in a side corridor. Sales in the global stock markets intensified investors’ escape into the safe assets amid the lack of Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics. By the end of the day the pair dollar/yen has decreased. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro is consolidating near the strong level of 1.0925 which indicates the pressure from the bears’ part. We should note that the long-term trend is a downward one. The US GDP third (final) assessment was not able to please traders. The dollar revaluation has a significant negative impact on the US economy. The local maximum update of 1.1050 led to the price reversal downwards. The price has consolidated under the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.0925. The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The pair can fall to the support level of 1.0790. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK retail sales positive report shows the private consumption growth which is a positive factor for the economy. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney once again stated in his speech at the Bundesbank conference that the next step from the Bank of England part would be the interest rates increase. Mark Carney also said that the life standard recovery in the US is stronger than in the UK. The upward correction, formed from the support level of 1.4650 is gradually turning to a consolidation. The key support is the mark of 1.4800. The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break below 1.4800 for a steady decrease. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japan consumer price inflation has been slowing for eight month in a row; it raises expectations that the Bank of Japan will take additional monetary policy easing measures to achieve the inflation target. The consumer price index rose in February compared to the last year level of 2.0% which is below the forecasted medians of 2.1% and is lower the growth by 2.2% in January. The price is finding the support at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The price is likely to go to the support level of 118.00. Franc (CHF) General overview The franc resumed its increase against the dollar. Earlier the franc fell after the Swiss central bank representative Silvan Tsurbryugg said that the SNB was ready to intervene "at any time", the Swiss franc was greatly overvalued. And Silvan Tsurbryugg does not expect "the long term negative inflation", he is confident that the economy would cope with the strong franc effect. The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9950. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted March 30, 2015 Author Share Posted March 30, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 31.03.2015 Fundamental analysis The Federal Reserve board chairman Janet Yellen declared last week that the interest rate increase "can be guaranteed” in case of the economic recovery this year. The pair EUR/USD has enjoyed a moderate demand amid the US weak macroeconomic statistics, then the interest for the dollar buying increased. Investors expected the GDP revision for the 4th quarter in a positive way by 0.2%, but the indicator remained at the same level. By the end of the day the pair has fallen. The bearish sentiment also prevailed with the pair GBP/USD during the day. Traders built up short positions amid the US and the UK bond yields decline. There was a flat within the pair USD/JPY. The Japan negative inflation report has allowed the pair dollar/yen to strengthen to the level of 119.50, but the US weak macroeconomic statistics returned the quotes back. Nevertheless, as a result, the trading day within the pair USD/JPY finished with a sharp growth. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview We expect the downward trend development. The first March German important inflation report will be published this week. It will be the first CPI assessment which traditionally causes high traders’ reaction. The retail sales and durable goods negative data with the Michigan Institute consumer confidence indicator decrease point out to the Core PCE weak data output. In this regard, the US dollar will be under pressure as this indicator reflects the state of demand in the country. The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling. Trading recommendations The sellers need to break below 1.0790 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.0670 will be opened after this breakthrough. After fixing below the level of 1.0670, the level 1.0550 will become the next target. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK will not please traders with the interesting macroeconomic releases and in this regard, the traders’ attention will be drawn to the statistics from overseas. Leading indicators point out to the personal consumption expenditure weak data which is a negative factor for the US dollar. The low domestic demand indicates the weak GDP and therefore the dollar loses drivers for the quotations growth. The bond market also confirms the bullish trend for the British pound - the UK 10-year bond yields are growing in relation to the United States and Germany ones which is a positive factor for the pound. The pound has been consolidating above the support level of 1.4800 the whole previous week. The short-term tests were on reduced volume and were followed by the small rebounds upwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We expect the 1.4800 line break that will open the way towards 1.4650. Yen (JPY) General overview Japan shall publish the industrial production report. The machinery and equipment orders decline in January indicates the Japan production capacity contraction. The production sector PMI indicator in February was at the level of 51.6%, indicating the purchasing managers’ low optimism in this sector. The Japan goods exports from Japan have fallen to its lowest level for five months at the end of February which clearly confirms the negative trend. The price is finding the first support at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is under the Cloud and it is in the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 120.40. After breaking 120.40 the buyers may go to 121.60 and 122.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted April 1, 2015 Author Share Posted April 1, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 01.04.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar closed the yesterday's trading session with the quotations growth against the euro. The dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 98.30. During the day the pair EUR/USD decreased amid the energy prices decline. The Germany and Spain preliminary inflation releases pleased traders with the strong data, but the oil prices decrease reduced to naught all the bulls’ efforts. The pair GBP/USD has copied fully its older brother dynamics, but the pound grew at the end of the day. The UK mortgage lending release came out worse than traders had expected and this factor with the oil prices decline encouraged bears to short. The bears recovered some positions at the end of the trades. The Japan industrial production negative release with the world's leading markets growth encouraged the bulls to long with the pair USD/JPY which has increased. However the dollar fell but the pair quotations have increased by the end of the day after a slight decrease. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview Germany will publish the retail sales release. The retail sales fell by 0.5% m / m in February compared with January. The consumer confidence indicator growth with the car sales increase point out to the Germans desire to spend more money than to save. Germany and Spain have already published the March inflation and both releases can be called positive. There was the key support level of 1.0790 breakthrough. The level was broken through amid the lower volumes. The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0925. There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The price is likely to consolidated below the level of 1.0790. Then we expect the rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 1.0925. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK released the last year 4th quarter payments balance. There was a negative trade balance reduction in the last quarter of 2014 which is a positive factor for the payments balance indicator. The UK consumer confidence index by GfK rose by 3 points to 4 points in February. All the five index components have grown. The continued price consolidation above the strong support level of 1.4800 was followed by a breakthrough. The sellers could not fixate below this level and the pair returned above it. The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015. There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential growth target is are the resistance level of 1.4920. This level testing is more likely to lead to the strong price support level 1.4650 return. Yen (JPY) General overview There was marked the carry trade transactions withdrawal the last day of the fiscal 2014 in Japan amid the capital repatriation by the Asian investors. The oil growth will contribute to the US dollar decrease which also plays into the bears’ hands within the pair USD/JPY. The resistance of 119.20 breakthrough has led to the downward trend reversal. Despite the reduced volume, buyers have already come to the nearest target of 120.40. The resistance level of 120.40 approach is followed by the pair decrease. The price is finding the first support at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is under the Cloud and it is in the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement. and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The sellers need to break below 119.20 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 118.00 will be opened after this breakthrough. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted April 1, 2015 Author Share Posted April 1, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 02.04.2015 Fundamental analysis We had a multidirectional trend in the Forex market yesterday. At the end of the day the pair EUR/USD has grown amid the energy prices decline and the USA statistics releases. Bears continue to monitor the situation in the oil market that supports the US dollar demand. Even the euro area inflation positive release in March failed to encourage bulls to long with euro. On the contrary, the pair GBP / USD enjoyed a steady demand during the day amid the UK bond yields increase. The UK GDP final data came out better than the forecasted medians which contributed to the British pound growth against the major competitors. Still the pair GBP/USD had fallen, but increased at the end of the trades. The Japan fiscal year completion supported the demand for the national currency. The carry trade transactions withdrawal cheered bears to short and even the US consumer confidence positive release from the Conference Board was unable to change the USD/JPY trend. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview Despite the euro zone inflation positive statistics - the single European currency cannot show any significant increase. The reason for that is the "black gold" bearish sentiment - as long as the Brent crude oil price is not fixed above the level of 57.50 $/barrel we should not expect strong demand for the pair. The US manufacturing sector business activity is of great interest. Having broken the strong support level of 1.0790 downwards, buyers are trying to correct the price back to the level that had already served as the strong resistance. The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0925. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 1.0790 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.0670, 1.0550. Pound (GBP) General overview The Center for Macroeconomic Research Markit Economics published the UK industrial production sector release. The indicator rose up to 54.4 from 54.0 in March. Capacity use rates in February allow us to count on the purchasing managers’ positive sentiment prevalence in the manufacturing sector. The pound has been at the level of 1.4800 for the second week, either breaking through it downwards or upwards. As long as the trend line of 1.4920 is not broken through upwards, the bearish trend potential is still preserved. The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The level of 1.4920 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level of 1.4650 return. Yen (JPY) General overview The dollar revaluation is a negative factor for the manufacturing sector and in this regard it is difficult to expect the ISM strong data publication. There were the highly volatile news published (the Tankan large manufacturers sentiment index, the Tankan large non-manufacturing companies sentiment index). The news turned out to be positive for the yen to a large extent. The price is finding the first support at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is under the Cloud and it is in the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 120.40. We do not exclude the falls to 119.20. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted April 3, 2015 Author Share Posted April 3, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 03.04.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 98.42. At the end of the day the pair EUR/USD has increased amid the US negative macroeconomic statistics. The ADP and ISM releases came out much worse than the forecasted medians that encouraged bulls to long. The last week caused the Brent crude quotations growth by more than 3%. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased. The United States once again disappointed traders with the weak macroeconomic statistics which adversely affected not only the US dollar exchange rate, but also the global stock markets. The investors’ escape from the risky assets had a positive impact on the Japanese yen. By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had slightly decreased. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The ECB last meeting minutes will have no pressure on the euro as Mario Draghi has already noted that the regulator monetary economists raised their benchmark inflation estimates over the next two years. The US ADP employment and the ISM manufacturing sector business activity weak releases contributed to the US and Germany bond yields spread reduction which is a bullish factor for the euro. The strong support level of 1.0790 breakthrough was followed by the reverse breakthrough. Now the mark of 1.0925 is playing the role of the reference resistance. The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The pair can fall to the resistance level of 1.0790. After breaking 1.0670 the sellers may go to 1.0670 and 1.0550. Pound (GBP) General overview The traders’ attention will be focused on the business activity publication in the UK construction sector. This index fell to 57.8 from 60.1 in March. It can be expected the US trade balance data output worse than the forecasted medians which will put pressure on the US dollar. The "black gold" quotations growth also plays into the bulls’ hands within the British pound. The trade is near the strong support level of 1.4800. The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.4650 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.4500. Yen (JPY) General overview The ADP and ISM negative macroeconomic statistics contributed to the US and Japan bond yields reduction which is a bearish factor for the pair USD/JPY. The US stock market weakness points out to the lack of investors' risk appetite «which will also contribute to the bearish sentiment prevalence. The price is finding the first support at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is under the Cloud and it is in the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling. Trading recommendations We expect the 120.40 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 121.60, further then towards 122.40. Franc (CHF) General overview The Swiss franc rose against the dollar after the second quarter start was marked by the number of weaker than expected US economic data publication. The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9950. There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9950. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted April 4, 2015 Author Share Posted April 4, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 06.04.2015 Fundamental analysis The US economic employment important data came out worse then forecasted medians will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the global financial markets. The ISM service sector data will be published on Monday, April 6. The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 96.84. The pair EUR/USD increased by amid the USA Non-Farms and the US and Germany bond yields decline. Even the US trade balance positive release could not stop bulls from purchases. During the day the pair GBP/USD was in the flat. The UK PMI construction sector weak data led to the quotations decrease to the level of 1.4775, but then the British pound has showed its growth. The side trend was observed and with the USD/JPY during the day. The US trade balance positive release for February encouraged bulls to long, but without the strong dollar growth. The greenback sharply fell amid the negative US statistics. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The US and the European Banks did not work on Friday. Traders took a wait before the US labor market publication that came out worse then forecasted medians. The ADP and ISM manufacturing sector indicators pointed out to the data output below the traders’ expectations. The manufacturing sector negative trends indicate the US economy slowdown. As for the pair euro/dollar the key level is the downward trend line of 1.0925, which was broken upwards. The trend line breakthrough may lead to the medium correction formation upwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1150. Pound (GBP) General overview Catholic world celebrated Good Friday and in this regard the London banks were closed. The weak macroeconomic statistics pointed out to the US labor market negative data. It should also be noted that in the context of low inflation investors will closely monitor the average earnings data. The trade within this instrument was near the level of 1.4800 the whole week. The short-term level breakthroughs were followed by the returns reversal. The pair increased and tested the resisnace level of 1.4920 at the end of the trades. The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 1.4920 for a steady growth. The way to the marks of 1.5015, 1.5100 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen (JPY) General overview The US and the Old World Stock exchanges were closed and therefore it is difficult to note increased volatility for the pair before the Non-Farms publications. The positions consolidation within the carry trade is completed. The whole week the Japanese yen was in the flat between the levels of 120.20 and 119.40. The price sharply fell and broke through the support level of 119.20 amid the US negative statistics. The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 118.30, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 117.50. Franc (CHF) General overview The range trade was again observed at the end of the last week within most of the major currency pairs. Perhaps it could be due to the fact that some traders have already gone to the Easter holidays and those who continue the trade have strengthened while waiting the US employment data output. The dollar decreased against the franc and the others majors after the Non-Farms publication. The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9280. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted April 7, 2015 Author Share Posted April 7, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 07.04.2015 Fundamental analysis Volatility in the market on Monday was weak the Easter holidays. The US dollar was knocked out after the March labor market statistics release last week. The Non-Farm number amounted 126 thousand which is worse than the investment banks economists consensus forecast by 120 thousand. The indicator was also revised downwards by 31 thousand in February. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at the previous level of 5.5%. The only positive thing is the average earnings report. The US average hourly earnings increased by 0.28% to 24.86 dollars in March which exceeded the traders’ expectations. This release allows to count on the consumer prices growth in the second quarter. The March employment reports complemented a series of the US economic weak data that have recently come out and it took note in the market that June is the most likely period of interest rate increase, but can be probably removed from the agenda. At the same time, there are opposing views, considering t hat we should not pay too much attention to this unexpected labor market result and the previous time limits are quite relevant. After a high volatility on Friday the pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD showed a flat, and the pair USD/JPY slightly increased on the yesterday’s trades. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The European traders were on the Easter vacation yesterday. The Non-Farm negative release confirms the US economy decline, caused by the revaluation. In the light of this we expect the corrective movement continuation. There is ahead the strong resistance at 1.1050 and we believe this level will be tested in the short term. There was the downward trend line of 1.0925 breakthrough. The trend line breakthrough signals towards the downward trend reversal. The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations After the trend line 1.0925 breakthrough upwards the way to the levels of 1.1050, 1.1150 will be opened. Pound (GBP) General overview The London banks were closed yesterday and in this regard we noted the sluggish trade during the day. The United States published the ISM services sector business activity release. The labor market negative Friday release will contribute to the US and the UK negative bond yields reduction that will generate a strong demand for the British pound. Due to the level of 1.4920 breakthrough upwards the downward trend is moving slowly, but surely towards the upward correction. The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The potential correction growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5015, 1.5100. Yen (JPY) General overview The US labor market negative release did not leave to the dollar any drivers for a growth and as a result traders continue to take profits on the long positions. The pair USD/JPY is trading in the flat below the mark of 119.20 and tested this level at the end of the trades. The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations After the trend line 118.30 breakthrough down the way to the support 117.50 will be opened. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted April 7, 2015 Author Share Posted April 7, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 08.04.2015 Fundamental analysis We had a multidirectional trend in the Forex market yesterday. The German and the British traders were absent at the beginning of the week due to the Easter Monday celebration as a result we saw a calm trade. The pair EUR/USD increased to the level of 1.1000 - traders continued to win back the US labor market negative release for March, but bulls did not manage to consolidate above the 10th figure and the pair decreased. A similar trend was and within the pair GBP/USD. After the British pound growth to the level of 1.4980 amid the steady demand in the oil market - traders fixed profits on the long positions. The pair decrease was fallowed by a consolidation. The upward trend prevailed within the pair USD/JPY amid the risky assets demand. The US stock market opened the new trading week with quotations increase despite the business activity weak release for the ISM services. Then we have seen the US dollar strong quotations growth. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview Traders returned to work after a long weekend. In this regard, there was a slight volatility surge. We expect the US and Germany negative bond yields. The ISM service sector business activity negative data point out to the corrective movement continuation. There has not been the round resistance level of 1.1050 test. The trading was on the lower volumes and was followed by the rebound downwards. The support level of 1.0925 was broken. The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. The price is шт the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The strong resistance level 1.0790 test will be followed by the euro consolidation. Pound (GBP) General overview The traders’ attention will be focused on the Markit Economics service sector business activity release. The UK/US service sector business activity indicators will come out in the positive area amid the ISM weak data which undoubtedly will be reflected in the quotations. The upward trend in the "black gold" market is also playing into the bulls’ hands within the British pound. Buyers failed to fixate above the resistance level of 1.4920. The level break through was followed by the short-term price decrease. The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The pair can fall to the resistance level of 1.4800. Yen (JPY) General overview The United States continue to disappoint investors with weak macroeconomic statistics. The ISM service sector business activity weak report was added to the negative labor market release which is a bearish factor for the dollar. The US stock market growth does not still indicate the strong demand for the risky assets. Before having reached the strong support level of 118.30 amid the low volume, the price reversed upwards to the correction. Buyers raised the price to the nearest resistance level of 119.20. This level was broken through and the growth continued. The resistance level of 120.40 was tested. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 120.40, 121.60. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted April 9, 2015 Author Share Posted April 9, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 09.04.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar has strengthened its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 98.16. The pair EUR/USD was under pressure - traders continued to take profit on the long positions after the quotations growth on Friday and Monday. The bearish sentiment was and within the pair GBP/USD. The March UK PMI services pleased traders with the strong data, but it did not help the pound to strengthen against the US competitor. The pair USD/JPY closed the trading day of the week in the "green zone" amid the risky assets demand. Yesterday the world leading stock markets showed an increase that encouraged bulls to long after a short-time decrease. Late in the evening the United States published the US Federal Reserve last meeting minutes. The monetary regulator announced all the key milestones in its quarterly economic forecast. Moreover, the United States published the crude oil deposits report for the last week. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The bulls have been trying to consolidate above 10th figure for the third consecutive week and each time, the euro faces the bears’ resistance. There will be the ECB monetary policy meeting next week (April 15) and the event may become the driver for the euro decrease. The trades will be under the FOMC protocol influence which was published late in the evening. There was a short-term price rebound from the downward trend line and tested the support level of 1.0790. The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling. Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0670 soon. Pound (GBP) General overview The March UK PMI services showed the maximum growth over the past 6 months, pointing out to the stable economic growth in the first quarter of this year. We expect the US crude oil reserves reduction which will allow the bulls to consolidate above the psychological level of $60/ barrel within the Brent crude, and thus, it will put pressure on the US dollar. The correctional price decline from the resistance level of 1.4920 was on the strong support level of 1.4800. The short-term trend line of 1.4800 testing was followed by the rebound upwardsand the resistance level of 1.4920. The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is falling Trading recommendations We expect the 1.4800 line break that will open the way downwards to 1.4650. Yen (JPY) General overview The Bank of Japan governor Kuroda said that the consumer price inflation was likely to reach 2% in the fiscal year of 2015/16. He also added that the real wages and real incomes would rise from April as the consequences after the sales tax increase have weakened. The Japan 10-year bond yields increased from 0.33% to 0.40% in March. In this regard, the Bank of Japan should not expect changes in the asset purchase program which can cause the profit-taking wave on the long positions. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 120.40. After breaking 120.40 the buyers may go to 121.60 and 122.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted April 10, 2015 Author Share Posted April 10, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 10.04.2015 Fundamental analysis There was a multidirectional trend in the Forex market. The pair EUR/USD has closed the day in the "red zone" where it has been the third consecutive trading day amid the German 10-year bond yields which have fallen to the historic lows. As a result, the trading day was ended with the price decrease. The pair GBP/USD has finished the third trading day in a negative area as well. Traders opened short positions at the attractive levels and the price reached the level of 1.47 at the end of the day. In the long term we expect all lower levels reaching and the stabilization at around 1.30, the major turning point for the pair will be the May elections due to the expectations that the Bank of England will raise the rates after the Federal Government will make the expected movement. The pair USD/JPY grew at the end of the day. The Bank of Japan announced the monetary policy two-day meeting results which indicate that the monetary regulator expects the economic growth recovery in the medium term. In the light of this traders closed short positions that supported the demand for the dollar. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview Germany published the February industrial production release. The industrial production increased by 0.2% m/m in February after a decrease by 0.4% in January while it was early reported a growth by 0.6%. The Germany economy is the euro area economy engine, but it cannot be as strong as it was thought. It is worth noting that there are not enough factors that can support demand for the US dollar now. The resistance level of 1.1050 testing was followed by the euro active reduction against the US dollar. Despite the reduced volume, sellers were able to break through the support near 1.0670. The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0790. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling. Trading recommendations We expect the 1.0550 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.0420. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK National Statistics published the trade balance report. The UK goods and services trade deficit fell unexpectedly to 606 million pounds in January 2015 after 2 142 million pounds in December. The main factor is the significant decline in the basic sector excluding oil and major commodities. There will be published decision about the interest rates. The strong resistance level short-term of 1.4920 testing was followed by the price rebound downwards. The price broke through the support level of 1.4800 amid the low volume. The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling Trading recommendations After the trend line 1.4650 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4500 will be opened. Yen (JPY) General overview The corporate reporting season started in the United States and we can expect that the most of American corporations’ indicators will be in the negative area amid the economic growth slowdown because of the US dollar strong revaluation. Buyers have broken through the strong resistance level of 120.40 for the second time. The level of 120.40 breakthrough was at the lower volumes. The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 121.60 and 122.40. Franc (CHF) General overview The Swiss franc fell amid the dollar growth after the Fed optimistic protocols. According to the document, in general the committee members chose to start raising interest rates later in 2015, noting the dollar growth impact and the oil prices decrease. The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9950, the next one is at 1.0160. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9950. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0160. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted April 14, 2015 Author Share Posted April 14, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 14.04.2015 Fundamental analysis Yesterday the US dollar lost its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 99.63. During the day the pair EUR/USD declined amid the US and Germany bond yields- the investors get rid of the euro and are looking for a more profitable investment instruments. At the end of the day the pair euro/dollar decreased. The UK industrial production release failed to please traders with the strong data - at the end of February it had risen to 0.1% instead of 0.3% that traders had expected. This report shows that we should not except faster economic growth in the United Kingdom in the first quarter of this year. This factor with the US and the UK negative bond yields encouraged bears to short. However, by the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased. The pair USD/JPY was trading different directed. There has not been published any important macroeconomic statistics. As a result, the trading day the pair USD/JPY finished with the price decrease. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview Investors' attention will be focused on the debt market dynamics. The German 10-year bond yields are still at the historic lows and against this background, the euro becomes the funding currency for the carry trade operations. Having broken through the strong support level of 1.0670, the price has been consolidating below the level for a long time that plays the role of a resistance. The trade volumes are in reduced area. The resistance level of 1.0550 was tested. The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0790. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be started now. The first target is the level 1.0670. Pound (GBP) General overview The industrial production release did not show any strong evidence that indicates that we should not wait for the UK high economic growth in the first quarter of this year. We observed the UK and Germany negative yield spreads which is also a bearish factor. Having broken through the strong support level of 1.4650, sellers could not considerably strengthened their position within this instrument and the pair returned above this level. The trade volumes are in reduced area. The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting Trading recommendations The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.4800. Yen (JPY) General overview The US dollar is now in a demand and therefore its main competitors will be under pressure. The US and Japan bond yields are again increasing which is a bullish factor. The US stock market closed with the quotations steady growth that points out to the strong demand for the risky assets. "Safe assets" such as the Japanese yen will not be of interest to institutional investors. The pair is trading different directed. Buyers tried to consolidate above the last week maximum and broke through above the mark of 120.40. This breakthrough was followed by a smooth transition into consolidation. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We expect the 120.40 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 121.60. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted April 15, 2015 Author Share Posted April 15, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 15.04.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar began the new trading week with the price growth but yesterday it fell against the majors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 98.81. The United States published the retail sector sales report. The wage growth with the high demand for cars in March point out to the positive release that earlier only strengthened the demand for the US dollar. The pair EUR/USD was under pressure and at the moment it reached the mark of 1.0520. Traders continue to focus their attention on the debt market dynamics and the German 10-year low bond yields force investors to get rid of the euro. Nevertheless the euro/dollar had increased at the end of the trades. The pair GBP/USD was in demand amid the profit taking on the short positions as well as the pair EUR/GBP quotations reduction which supported the British pound. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased. The pair USD/JPY was in a downward trend. Bulls were able to take the pair to the level of 120.84, but then when investors fixed profits on the long positions in the NYSE stock exchange - bears were able to regain lost ground. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The traders’ attention was drawn to the euro area industrial February production positive data. Last week the Old World leading economies reported about the manufacturing sector growth. In addition, the single European currency devaluation has significantly strengthened the European exporters’ position. The euro is correcting against the US dollar. The decline was not at the highest volume that allowed the support level of 1.0550 to withstand sellers in the short terms. Te pair tested the resistance level of 1.0670. The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0790. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.0790. After breaking 1.0790 the buyers may go to 1.0925. Pound (GBP) General overview The National Statistics Office published the UK March inflation release – the data was 0,01% y/y. The oil market stabilization with the retail sector sales increase in February point out to the data output within the forecasted medians. Seasonal factors also confirm this trend - we traditionally expected the consumer prices growth in the UK. Last week sellers confidently broke through the strong support level of 1.4800 downwards. This week we predict the reversal level of 1.4800 break through that serves the role of the strong resistance. Buyers checked this level for strength amid the GBP news. If the level testing is false, there will be the bearish trend confident continuation. The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4920. Yen (JPY) General overview We observe bearish sentiments. As it was mentioned earlier - the March retail sales positive release can spur demand for the US dollar and contribute to the US and Japan bond yields continued expansion. However the yen strengthen against the dollar on the yesterday’s trades. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 119.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 118.30. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted April 16, 2015 Author Share Posted April 16, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 16.04.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 98.83. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the euro area the February industrial production positive release as well as the US retail sales moderately negative data. There was a high volatility in the pair’s trades amid the M. Draghi’s press-conference. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar had increased. The UK March inflation release has not confirmed the Bank of England fears – there was not observed deflation in the UK and against this background traders continued to take profits on the short positions during the day. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased. During the day the Japanese yen also enjoyed steady demand - after the US retail sales moderately negative data for March traders actively increased "shorts". By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased. According to the March release, the US producer price index excluding the food, energy and trade prices grew by + 0.8% on the annual basis compared with the previous period when the index value rose up by 0.7%. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The ECB announced the monetary policy meeting results – the regulator left the interest rates unchanged at 0.05% as in the month earlier. The QE program was launched on March 6 and now it is early enough to make conclusions. The energy market stabilization with the euro devaluation will contribute to the euro area lower deflation processes in the short term. The single European currency had been declining for six consecutive trading days and traders decided to fix part of the short positions. The medium-term euro bearish trend moved into the side corridor near the levels: 1.0670 - 1.0550. Before reaching the support level of 1.0550 re-testing, the price had corrected upwards and is testing the resistance level of 1.0670. The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0790. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.0790. Pound (GBP) General overview The dollar bulls fixed long positions after the quotations rapid growth – we have seen a rebound from the psychological level of 100.00 within the dollar index basket (USDX) for two consecutive trading days. The debt market dynamics indicates the neutral background and taking into account the fact that the British pound has corrected from the Monday minimum values - we can expect quotations stabilization. The beginning of the trading week was on the positive note. Due to the formed correction buyers have broken through the resistance level of 1.4800. The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.4920. Yen (JPY) General overview Traders close long positions within the US dollar as the dollar index basket (USDX) suits to the psychological level of 100.00 which is a bearish factor. On the other hand, bulls in the US stock market redeem the quotations decline, increasing long positions at the attractive levels that can support the demand for the pair dollar/yen. The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations After the level of 118.30 breakthrough down the way to the support 117.50 will be opened. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted April 16, 2015 Author Share Posted April 16, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 17.04.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar was again under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 98.47. During the day the pair EUR/USD enjoyed the demand amid the moderately positive comments by the ECB President Mario Draghi about the European economy current state and amid the energy cost increase. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar had increased. Both the UK and the US 10-year negative bond yields reduction with the oil quotations growth amid the US stocks reduction contributed to the bullish sentiment within the pair GBP/USD which by the end of the day had increased. The pair USD/JPY has finished the trades in the negative territory for the fourth consecutive trading day. The basic commodity assets quotations growth was supported only the US dollar and against this background, the pair dollar/yen had decreased by the end of the day. The United States published the March building permits number – the data came out worse then forecasted medians – 926 000. We expected the data output better than the consensus-forecast 1,24 millions. The USA jobless claims number increased by 12 thousand. up to 294 thousand last week. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview According to the ECB meeting results the monetary regulator shows positive changes in the lending sector, but it still expects that inflation in the coming months to remain in the negative area. We expect the demand for the euro amid the oil prices increase. However, the resistance level of 1.0790 can be a strong barrier for bulls. The whole week the euro was actively strengthening against the US dollar and came close to the strong resistance level of 1.0790. Trading volumes are in the increased zone. The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0925. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.0925, 1.1050. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK will not please traders with the interesting macroeconomic releases. The oil quotations strong growth after the US stocks reduction cheered bulls to long. It is also worth noting the fact that there was the UK bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts which is also a positive factor for the British pound. The formed price increase was at the higher volumes and reached the resistance level of 1.4920, that was broken through. The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The price is likely to go to the support level of 1.4800. After breaking 1.4800 the sellers may go to 1.4650. Yen (JPY) General overview The United States did not please traders with the building permits number very positive release which did not encouraged bulls to long. Yesterday we saw a global growth in the equity markets which indicates a strong demand for the risky assets. In this regard, the yen will once again be a funding currency for the carry trade deals and we can expect the Japanese yen decline. Now the pair is in the flat trading. The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 118.30, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets is 117.50. Franc (CHF) General overview The US weak economic data triggered the US dollar weakening against the most of its competitors, including the Swiss franc. The US Treasury Secretary Lew said that the US economy achieved sustainable growth. According to the Fed economic review "Beige Book" the activity growth was noted in the most regions. The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9950. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9280. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. 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ValdisTF Posted April 19, 2015 Author Share Posted April 19, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 20.04.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar was again under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of97.85. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the oil prices increase and the US constriction sector negative macroeconomic statistics. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar had increased. The UK 10-year bond yields showed growth relative to their US and Germany counterparts which cheered bulls to long. The British pound had increased during the trades but it slightly corrected by the end of the day. The pair USD/JPY has finished the fifth consecutive trading day in the negative area. The world leading stock markets showed a moderate decrease which together with the oil prices increase encouraged bears to short. Against this background, the pair dollar/yen had decreased by the end of the day. The US inflation statistics is expected at the level of the forecasted medians. The wage growth with the energy cost increase indicates to the inflation expectations strengthening. The CPI fell by 0.1% last month compared to the last year March figures. The underlying index inflation rate growth was 1.8%. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The traders are not ready to break through the psychological level of 100.00 within the dollar index basket which does not allow the US dollar to strengthen its positions against the euro. The German 10-year bond yields set a fresh historic low and fell below the mark of 0.10%. This factor has led to the Germany/USA and the Germany/UK negative bond yields significant increase. The euro has broken through the strong resistance level of 1.0670 upwards. This level breakthrough was on the increased volumes - buyers are gaining their strength. The resistance level of 1.0790 was tested. The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0925. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We may expect the fall towards 1.0670 further on we expect a growth to 1.0790, 1.0925. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK national statistics office published the February labor market release. The UK economy is showing signs of stable growth which allows us to count on the unemployment reduction. The unemployment rate is 5.6% that is 2008 minimum. The US moderately positive inflation data has frozen the bulls’ enthusiasm. Buyers have tested the resistance level of 1.5015 and there was a rebound downwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support 1.4920, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.4800 and 1.4650. The buyers need to break above 1.5015 for a steady growth. Yen (JPY) General overview We may expect the downward trend moderate development. Firstly, the oil prices increase is a negative factor for the US dollar. Secondly, there was a weak demand for the risky assets that can cheer bears to short. In this regard, we expect the level of 118.30 testing and after that we expect the market stabilization and the technical rebound. The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. After breaking 119.20 the buyers may go to 120.40 and 121.60. Franc (CHF) General overview According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the dollar failed to strengthen on Thursday despite the business activity index increase to 7.5 pp in April from the earlier 5.0 pp. A separate report showed that last week the number of jobless claims in the United States reached the 6-week high at the level of 294K. The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9280. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValdisTF Posted April 21, 2015 Author Share Posted April 21, 2015 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 21.04.2015 Fundamental analysis The US dollar began the new week with the quotations growth- the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 98.19. The pair EUR/USD was under pressure amid the Germany PPI negative release as well as the German 10-year bond yields. However by the end of the day the pair euro/dollar had increased. According to Destatis, the Germany statistical agency, the producer prices decreased more in March than it had been forecasted. The producer price index fell by 1.7% on the annual basis, exceeding the economists’ forecast that expect decline by 1.6%. In February the producer prices fell by 2.1%. After two weeks "black gold" the price growth was a correction that had a negative impact on the pair GBP/USD which had shown a decline. Nevertheless the pair corrected upwards by the end of the day. The Japan coincident index was 110.7 in February compared to 113.2 in January. The preliminary index value was 110.5. Bullish sentiment on the world leading stock markets supported the demand for the pair during the day which finished the trades with the quotations growth. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The ZEW Institute published the Germany business environment investors’ sentiment. Germans pleased traders with the positive macroeconomic releases in the first quarter. However this release was worse then forecasted medians. The German 10-year bond yields are only 0.07%, and in this regard, investors will not rush to fill their portfolios with the low-income securities which will serve as a deterrent for the bulls. Having formed a small consolidation, the price rebounded downwards. Rebound allowed sellers to test the level of 1.0670. This test was followed by the rebound upwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0925. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The pair can decrease to the support level of 1.0670. After breaking 1.0670 the sellers may go to 1.0550. Pound (GBP) General overview The United Kingdom and the United States did not please traders with the important macroeconomic statistics. The UK and the US 10-year negative bond yields are lower the level of 31 bp which is a positive factor for the British pound. After the corrective movement towards the 49th figure that we had seen before, traders rushed to build up long positions at the attractive levels. The strong resistance level breakthrough of 1.4920 was short-lived. Sellers were able to return back the price below this mark. Nevertheless the bulls could break the level of 1.4920 upwards by the end of the trades. The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growiing. Trading recommendations The price is likely to go to the support level of 1.4800. The buyers need to break above 1.5015 for a steady growth. Yen (JPY) General overview The US stock market growth can encourage traders to open long positions in the Tokyo stock market which is a bullish factor for the pair. In the "black gold" market traders are increasing "longs" on the quotations decline to the support level of 63.15 with the Brent crude oil which indicates the continued upward trend which is a bearish factor for the US dollar. The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60. There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations If the price fixates above the resistance level of 120.40, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 121.60 and 122.40. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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