HFM Posted February 25, 2022 Author Share Posted February 25, 2022 Date : 25th February 2022. Market Update – February 25 – Volatility was the only real winner! Stock market sentiment started to stabilise overnight after Wall Street closed up from session lows. US futures are in the red though, led by a 0.8% drop in the USA100, and as officials in Europe and the US announce stiff sanctions for Russia, traders are also mulling what that means for Europe. Higher energy prices clearly are one thing and Brent is still holding above the $100 per barrel mark this morning. Russia’s oil exports seem to have been spared for now, while allies blocking access of the Swift payment system is also a possibility should a further escalation of sanctions become necessary. USD settled lower below 97.00 (USDIndex 96.86). China’s PBOC made a large liquidity injection. China’s central bank injected net 290 billion yuan via seven-day reverse repo operations today. That is the largest amount since September 2020 and according to the PBOC is designed to keep liquidity stable over the month end. The wild ride in global stock markets may have contributed to the move as external pressures, including the rise in oil prices, will add to existing problems, including the slump in the property markets and Covid related restrictions. The combination will likely keep the PBOC on an easing path. The VIX slid back to the 28.50 region after spiking to 37.79. US Yields – 10-year is down -0.3 bp at 1.96%, while the 10-year JGB rate has lifted 2.0 bp to 0.203% and yields are also higher in Australia and New Zealand. Equities – GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 1.65% and 1.2%. JPN225 gained nearly 2% and the CSI 300 is currently up 0.8%. USA100 round tripped, bouncing 3.35% higher after tumbling -3.4%, while USA500 recovered to post a 1.59% gain from a -2.6% drop, with USA30 rising 0.28% versus a -2.6% morning drop. USOil – fell back to $89.60 lows after hitting 7-year highs of $100.50 ahead of the open. Currently at $93.70. Gold – tumbled from a $1974 high down to the $1885 area. Bitcoin back above PP at $37,700. FX markets – EURUSD at 1.1210 from 1.1110 low, USDJPY back above 115.15, Cable breached 1.3438. European Open – Europe’s reliance on Russian oil and gas comes at a price and will be something officials need to address urgently, although there is of course no quick solution, which means consumers will feel the pain of even higher energy costs. The jump in the cost of living is already depressing consumer confidence, and after the disappointing German GfK consumer confidence reading earlier in the week, the UK’s numbers overnight looked equally depressing. The pressure on central bank to step in will remain then, even against the background of the crisis in Ukraine. DATA: German Q4 GDP revised up markedly – to -0.3% q/q from -0.7% q/q reported initially. German import price inflation hit 26.9% y/y in January, another higher than expected number that is likely to explode in coming months when the jump in oil prices is reflected, as it seems extremely unlikely that oil prices will go down very quickly in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. European gas prices exploded yesterday and are also likely to remain very high, which means more pain for consumers ahead, as the cost of living explodes. Today – Today’s data calendar includes detailed German GDP, preliminary French inflation numbers, the Eurozone ESI confidence reading, US PCE, Durable Goods and Michigan index. EU and ECB officials are set to hold a presser today, likely detailing some sanctions against Russia and their implementation. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCZK (+1.18%) spiked to 22.30 from 21.99 on EU open. MAs bulishly crossed, MACD signal line & histogram remain close to 0 line, RSI 64 & rising. H1 ATR 0.0622, Daily ATR 0.2683. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 28, 2022 Author Share Posted February 28, 2022 Date : 28th February 2022. Market Update – Major risk-off market moves as sanctions bite. Major RISK OFF mood in markets as they believe weekend announcements, unlike initial sanctions, will have significant impact. Rouble down 30% at record lows, Russian central bank has doubled a key rate to 20% from 9.5% and is openly buying gold. – Oil futures rallied well over $100/barrel. Safe havens of USD, JPY, Government Bonds and Gold all in demand. EUR, AUD, NZD stocks and yields all lower. Week Ahead – Will be dominated by news from Ukraine; BoC & RBA policy meetings, month-end today & and a heavy dose of global data releases including GDPs, PMIs, US ADP and NFP data. USD up (USDIndex 97.00). USD on bid next resistance 97.40 & 97.67. US Yields 10-yr tanked from 1.986% close Friday to 1.90% now. Equities – USA500 +95.95pts (+2.24%) 4384 on Friday. US500 FUTS collapsed (-2.82%) to 4260 earlier, back to 4285 now. USOil – Topped at $97.10, from under $90.00 on Friday, back to under $94.00 now. Gold – Holds over psychological $1900 now, having topped at $1930 earlier. Bitcoin broke lower to trade at $38,250. FX markets – EURUSD under 1.1185, USDJPY holds 115.50 and Cable trades at 1.3385. Overnight – JPY data mixed, Ind. production missed (-1.3% vs -0.6%) & Retail sales a tick higher at 1.6%. AUD data also mixed – a big beat for Retail Sales (1.8% vs 0.3% & -4.4% previously). European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 84 ticks at 166.99 and Treasury futures outperforming amid a general flight to safety amid the escalating tensions between the West and Russia that saw Russia’s Putin putting nuclear deterrent forces on high alert after western allies imposed stiff sanctions that included the exclusion of some Russian banks from SWIFT and also targeted Russia’s central bank. The opening of Russia’s stock markets has been postponed to the afternoon. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -3.2% and -1.5% respectively. Most Asian markets managed to close higher after a volatile session. Today – Russian-Ukrainian officials meeting; US Chicago PMI; ECB’s Lagarde, Panetta; Fed’s Bostic; EU’s von der Leyen; China’s Foreign Minister Yi; Earnings ABF, Baidu. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (-0.80%) Collapsed from Friday’s close over 130.20 to 128.50 lows & trades over 129.00 now. MAs remain aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 line, RSI 49.77 & rising, OB zone, H1 ATR 0.367, Daily ATR 1.2850. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 1, 2022 Author Share Posted March 1, 2022 Date : 1st March 2022. Market Update – March 1 – Calmer Markets For Now. Risk Off mood cools, at least for now, with stock markets mixed, the USD, Commodities and Treasuries hold their bid. More Western companies pull investments from Russia, Visa & Mastercard block financial transactions, Monaco and London block more accounts. Oil futures rally again, Gold holds up and Yields remain pressured. Overnight Asian markets moved higher, JPY Manu. PMI miss, CNY PMI’s beat (51.6 vs 50.6). RBA keeps interest rates unchanged amid new uncertainty. Ukraine applies for EU membership as a 65km convoy of Russian armour heads towards Kyiv. February Review – S&P500 fell -3.1%, DJIA30 lost -3.5%, & the NASDAQ shed -3.4%. Year to date the S&P500 is down -8.2% with January & February being the biggest two-month drop since March 2020 and the onset of the pandemic. USD (USDIndex 96.65). Traded below 97.00 most of yesterday. 96.50 next support. US Yields 10-yr lower again closed at 1.839 Monday, 3 ticks higher to 1.86% now. Equities – USA500 -10.70pts (-0.24%) 4373. (TSLA +7.48%, Zoom +5.81%, BP -4.95%, Total -7.62%) US500 FUTS recovering to 4386 now. USOil – Support at $93.00, yesterday, back to $95.00 now. Gold – Holds over psychological $1900 now, trades at $1908. Bitcoin rallied over key 40 & 42K levels to trade at $43,400. FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1225, from 1.1125 lows yesterday, USDJPY holds 115.00 and Cable recovers 1.3400 to trade at 1.3420 now. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 37 ticks at 167.41, outperforming versus Treasuries, which are down on the day. Europe’s geographical proximity to Ukraine and reliance on Russian oil and gas has left European markets more vulnerable to the fallout from the Ukraine war with DAX and FTSE 100 futures down -0.4%. Developments in Ukraine will continue to overshadow the markets going forward. Today – EU, UK & US Final PMIs, German CPI & Retail Sales, US ISM Manufacturing PMI & Construction Spending, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic & Mester, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Saunders & President Biden’s State of the Union Address. Earnings Target, AMC, HP & Salesforce. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.33%) The cooling of the risk off mood and RBA helped the pair recover. A breach of 83.00 lower earlier to 83.75 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram above 0 line, RSI 65.80 & rising, OB zone, H1 ATR 0.139, Daily ATR 0.9450. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 2, 2022 Author Share Posted March 2, 2022 Date : 2nd March 2022. Market Update – March 2 – Risk-Off Returns. Risk Off mood returned as stock markets dived and safe havens from the USD to US Treasuries rallied. Oil & GOLD markets surged, Brent hit $110/barrel & Gold hit $1950/ounce. More Western companies (Apple, Ford & Boeing,) pull investments from Russia & US banned Russian airlines from its airspace. However, Russian Oil, Gas & Uranium exports all remain open. Asian markets moved lower (Nikkei -1.3%). Biden SOU speech warns “we are coming fro your ill-gotten gains” and off-script says that Putin “has no idea what’s coming” Overnight – AUD GDP missed (3.4% vs 3.5%), JPY Capital Spending was higher and UK House Price Inflation jumped to 1.7% form 0.6%. USD (USDIndex 97.60). Rallied through 97.00 most of yesterday. 97.75 next resistance. US Yields 10-yr lower again closed at 1.73, 3 ticks lower to 1.707% now. Equities – USA500 -67pts (-1.55%) 4306. US500 FUTS down at 4288 now. USOil – Rallied from support at $94.00, yesterday, up to $107.55 now. Gold – Rallied from $1905 now, trades at $1948. Bitcoin rallied over key 40 & 42K levels to trade at $43,800. FX markets – EURUSD back under 1.1100, USDJPY holds 115.15 and Cable down to 1.3280 now. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 36 ticks at 170.66, while U.S. futures are slightly lower. , although in cash markets the U.S. 10-year rate is down -2.0 bp at 1.707%. Investors are pricing out excessive rate hike bets and in the Eurozone the 10-year Bund yield closed at -0.80% yesterday, with negative rates not expected to go away any time soon. For today, investors are likely to remain extremely nervous, although the -0.7% decline in the DAX future looks modest compared to yesterday’s correction and the FTSE 100 future is actually up 0.1%. Today – German Unemployment, EZ CPI, US ADP, BoC Policy Announcement, OPEC+, Ukraine-Russia Meeting (Time TBC), Speeches from Fed’s Powell, Bullard & Evans, ECB’s Lane, Schnabel, de Guindos & Nagel. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPCAD (-0.36%) 6-day collapse from 1.7345 continues down to 1.6915 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 line, RSI 30 & falling, OB zone, H1 ATR 0.139, Daily ATR 0.9450. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 3, 2022 Author Share Posted March 3, 2022 Date : 3rd March 2022. Market Update – March 3 – War stokes stagflation fears. Stock markets mostly moved higher across Asia, but GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.14% and US futures narrowly mixed, with the USA100 underperforming, against the background of the Ukraine war. Yields jumped higher yesterday and Bund futures are little changed this morning, as are Treasury futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected somewhat. Aluminium hits record top; Oil, wheat at multi-year highs on supply woes. Longer-term Black Sea supply curbs lift wheat to 14-year high – Brent hit $118/barrel & Gold hit $1950/ounce. Russia is a top supplier in oil, gas, metals and grain, and Russia and Ukraine also account for 19% of corn exports and 80% of exports of sunflower oil, which competes with soybean oil and palm oil. Reuters: The United States is preparing a sanctions package targeting more Russian oligarchs as well as their companies and assets, as Washington steps up pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin. New talks between Ukraine and Russia are reportedly slated for today. US “hugely important” delivery of Stinger missiles to Ukraine hailed “game-changer” – Fake News? Political propaganda? Who knows. Overnight – Powell signalled a less aggressive pace of interest rate hikes than investors had feared. BoE’s Cunliffe and Tenreyro suggested that the war in Ukraine will change the outlook” – suggested the bank remains on course to deliver further rate hikes. The banks could remain on course to remove stimulus, but will move cautiously and maintain the flexibility to step in again if necessary. BoE’s Tenreyro says Ukraine war leaves “upside surprise” on inflation, but also delivered a trade shock. China Services PMIs down; Japan consumer confidence down. ADP data showed a stronger than expected 475k jump in private payrolls in February and a hefty upward revision in January to 509k from -301k. USD – USDIndex at 97.50 US Yields 10-yr lower now, was over 13 bps higher testing 1.87%. Equities – Nikkei lifted 0.7%, USA500 jumped 1.86% – Energy was the best performing subsector on Nikkei (+3.2%), financials jumped 3.17%. USOil – Rallied to $112.00; Brent hit $118/barrel. Gold – steady as risk appetite improved, trades at $1926; Copper at 4.76 ; Palladium at 2,721. FX markets – EURUSD at 21-month low at 1.1055, USDJPY up at 115.72 and Cable down to 1.3390 now from 1.3416. USDCAD breaks below 200-Day SMA (Bank of Canada raised rates 0.25%). AUDUSD breaches and breaks 200-week SMA at 0.7320. Today – Today’s data releases will continue to take a backseat , but include final services PMIs for the Eurozone and the UK. The account of the ECB’s last policy meeting is also due, but the highlights will be in the US session with Jobless claims, ISM Services, Markit PMI, Fed Chair Powell testimony and BoC Macklem speech. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) UKOIL (+4.83%) Spiked to 119.78. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram extend higher, RSI 70 & rising with all suggesting further steam to the upside. H1 ATR 1.79, Daily ATR 5.07. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 4, 2022 Author Share Posted March 4, 2022 Date : 4th March 2022. Market Update – March 4 – Markets slump after nuclear power station strike. Risk Off mood swirled as Europe’s largest nuclear power complex was targeted in Russian/Ukrainian fighting, 5 of the 6 reactors have been safely shutdown. Safe havens from USD to US Treasuries continue to rally and Oil & GOLD markets hold their gains, lifting commodity currencies. Asian stock markets crashed (Nikkei -2.5%) EUR is testing 24-month lows. US markets closed lower on mixed US data (PMI’s disappointed but Initial Claims were better than expected), despite some big gains from retailers. Fed Chair Powell was a tad more Hawkish in his second day of testimony. US sanctioned more Russian oligarchs. Ukraine and Russia reached an understanding on a joint provision of humanitarian corridors for evacuating civilians. USD (USDIndex 98.02). Cooled from 98.08 (May 2020 high) earlier as nuclear power plant fire is contained. Rallied through 97.00 most of yesterday. 97.75 next resistance. US Yields 10-yr up to 1.844 on close – off 6 ticks lower to 1.785% now. Equities – USA500 -23pts (-0.53%) 4363. US500 FUTS down at 4341 now. USOil – Rallied to $112.56, yesterday, $106.10 now. Gold – Rallied to $1950 earlier, $1936 now. Bitcoin under 42K levels to trade at $43,300. FX markets – EURUSD back under 1.1010, USDJPY holds 115.40 and Cable down to 1.3320 now. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 50 ticks at 169.71, U.S. futures are also higher across the board, as investors head for safety once again. The Russian attack clearly has rattled nerves and left investors seeking safety in bonds and the Greenback. DAX and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are down -1.97% and -1.10% respectively. Developments in Ukraine may even overshadow todays’ US payroll report. Today – EZ Retail Sales & Construction PMI, US Labour Market Report. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.72%) Collapse from 1.6200 in mid February continues down to 1.4975 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 line, RSI 14 OS but still falling, OB zone, H1 ATR 0.0020, Daily ATR 0.0100. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 Date : 8th March 2022. Market Update – March 8 – Commodities Parabolic Rally Continues. Instability from the war and uncertainties over global impacts made pricing extremely difficult, especially considering the extent of the moves over the last couple of weeks. Markets are positioning for a series of rate hikes to deal with the spike in commodity prices, while in the Eurozone there is lingering speculation that the war in Ukraine and stagflation risks will prevent the ECB from a commitment to a phasing out of net asset purchases. Bonds as well as stock markets remained under pressure, as the Ukraine war is fuelling stagflation fears. The June 10-year Bund future is up 6 ticks, outperforming versus Treasury futures, which are firmly in the red once again, while the US cash rate has lifted 1.0 bp to 1.78%. The JPN225 is down -1.7%, with hefty losses of -3.62% on the USA100, -2.95% on the USA500, and -2.37% on the USA30. Oil is still trading at $120.00 after the wider jump to $126.30 – commodity prices will not just push up cost of living expenses but also weigh on production in sectors reliant on ready and cheap energy supplies. USD (USDIndex 99.31). Steady at 6-year highs. US Yields 10-yr up 1.2 bp at 1.785% – The JGB rate is up 1.0 bp at 0.150%. Equities – USA500 FUTS down at 4168 now. USOil – Rallied to $126.30 yesterday, $119.70 now. – The prospect of a ban on oil imports from Russia triggered investor fears over inflation and slowing economic growth. Gold – Rallied to $2020 earlier, $2018.30 now. Bitcoin trades at $38,350. Nickel at new record highs – more than doubled today to cross the $100,000-a-tonne level for the first time ever, as tension in eastern Europe showed no signs of cooling and growing sanctions against Russia fuelled fears of a disruption in supply. – Russia supplies the world with about 10% of its nickel needs, mainly for use in stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries. Palladium surged to a new peak too. Wheat has paced the rise in key commodities since the invasion, having soared 52%. It surged 5.4% to a new high of $13.63 a bushel but finished down -7% at $12.02. FX markets – EURUSD at 22-month low at 1.0847, USDJPY holds 115.50 and Cable down to 1.3080 now. Overnight: Japan reported its biggest current account deficit since 2014 in January. President Joe Biden’s administration is willing to move ahead with a US ban on Russian oil imports even if European allies do not, Reuters reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. Crude has already hit 14-year highs and Russia warned that prices could surge to $300 a barrel and it might close the main gas pipeline to Germany if the West halts oil imports over the invasion of Ukraine. Germany has rejected plans to ban energy imports. The biggest buyer of Russian crude oil is accelerating plans to expand its use of alternative energy sources but cannot halt imports of Russian energy overnight, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Monday. Today – EU Q4 GDP, US Trade, Wholesale Trade, and the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and Japanese Q4 GDP. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) Palladium (+7.52%) Spiked to 3200 again recovering from 2810 lows last night. Currently MAs flattened, MACD signal line & histogram steady at 0 line, RSI 57 but pointing lower, all implying a short term potential correction lower. H1 ATR 56.87, Daily ATR 215.19. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 Date : 10th March 2022. Market Update – March 10 – Stocks & EUR Bounce, Oil sinks, Gold & USD slip. Risk On re-emerged yesterday as stocks rallied (NASDAQ +3.59%, Nikkei +3.8%) as Russia-Ukraine Fin. Mins. meet in Turkey, OIL dived (-12% at one point) as UAE said it would increase output, but not break with OPEC. GOLD fell $85 & JPY & CHF dipped as safe haven assets fell (USDJPY over 116), USD slipped too, EUR had its best day in months (EURGBP back to 0.8400) ahead of ECB later. AUD & NZD hold their bid too. Yields fell and BTC stalled at key $42k level and lost over $2k. Overnight JPY PPI leapt to 9.3% due to significant imports. USD (USDIndex 98.04). Cooled from over 99.06 yesterday to 97.80 before recovering 98.00. US Yields 10-yr up to 1.948% on close – lower to 1.934% now. Yesterday’s 10-yr auction was filled at 1.92. Equities – USA500 +107 (+2.57%) 4277. US500 FUTS down at 4270 now. Tech rallied over +5% (Google, MSFT, NFLX & TWTR). XOM lost -5.6% as oil prices collapsed. Amazon +2.4% announced 20-for-1 stock split. USOil – Tanked from $124.90 highs on Tuesday to $99.70 yesterday. $107.50 now. Gold – Down from Tuesday high at $2070 to under $1975 now. Bitcoin tested the key $42K level yesterday, only to reverse under $40k & trades at $39,300 now. FX markets – EURUSD back over 1.1050, USDJPY holds over 116.00 and Cable up to 1.3190 now. European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 15 ticks at 163.75, outperforming versus Treasury futures. Yields moved higher across Asia, but the broad reversal of safe haven flows that dominated yesterday’s session has already started to run out of steam, as doubts over hopes that Ukraine and Russia will come to an agreement at the scheduled meeting of foreign ministers in Turkey today have crept in. US futures are broadly lower, even if DAX and FTSE 100 futures are adding to yesterday’s gains. The correction in oil prices eases some of the recent pressure and for the Eurozone at least, while support also comes from hope that EU heads of state will agree to joint debt issuance to finance energy and defence policies in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the escalating tensions between the West and Russia. ECB Preview – The ECB meets today and another joint debt package would increase the central bank’s room to extend net asset purchases, which most now expect the central bank to keep open ended at today’s meeting as warnings of stagflation fears dominate the headlines. Still, the ECB can’t afford to do nothing and may find a way to change strategy and open the way to hike rates, while still buying bonds. Today – US CPI, ECB Policy Announcement & Press Conference (Lagarde), Weekly Claims, Russia-Ukraine Foreign Ministers in Turkey & EU Leaders Summit, RBA’s Lowe. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.40%) Rallied from 0.6735 lows yesterday to over 0.68.00 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram hold over 0 line, RSI 62 & rising, Stochs in OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0070. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 Date : 11th March 2022. Market Update – March 11. US CPI is at a fresh 40-year peak, and there was a hawkish slant from the ECB for which the markets were not fully prepared. Risk off prevails with Asian stocks mostly sold off, after a largely weaker close on Wall Street. Japanese indexes underperformed and the Nikkei lost -2.1%, while the ASX was down -0.9% at the close. The Hang Seng corrected -1.6%, weighed down by tech stocks after the US flagged five Chinese firms that could be delisted. Oil dived to 101.25 amid escalating bans on Russian oil. President Biden will call for an end to normal trade relations with Russia. US & G7 allies to move today to strip Russia of ‘most favored nation’ status. USD (USDIndex 98.63) steady below 99.40 highs. US Yields 10-yr cheapened 6 bps to the 2.00% area. The 2-year rate was at 1.715%. The wi 30-year tested 2.40% prior to the sale but closed around 2.38%. Equities – USA100 closed with a -0.95% decline, while the USA500 and Dow were down -0.43% and -0.34%, respectively. USOil – dipped to $101.25 but up to $105.09 now. Set for its biggest weekly drop since November. Gold – lower as US Treasury yields gained overnight on red-hot inflation data. Currently at $1990. FX markets – EURUSD back below 1.1000, USDJPY at 5-year tops at 116.79 and Cable languishes at 1.3093 near a 16-month low. European Open – Eurozone bond yields spiked and spreads widened in the wake of the ECB announcement yesterday, which confirmed the ECB’s path to policy normalisation. Net asset purchases are set to be scaled back through the second quarter and likely to end in Q3, and while that paves the way for rate hikes in Q4, the ECB made it clear that rate moves will depend on geopolitical developments. The Ukraine war has left the growth outlook with clear risks to the downside and the inflation outlook with considerable upside risks, which complicates the matter, but it is clear that for now the ECB remains determined to phase out stimulus as inflation is unlikely to undershoot the target in the medium term. Overnight: Japanese real spending dropped -1.2% in January, following the 0.2% bounce in December. German February HICP inflation was confirmed at 5.5% y/y, rising from 5.1% y/y in the previous month. UK monthly GDP was stronger than anticipated. The economy expanded 0.8% m/m in January. Today – With the focus firmly on the Ukraine war, data releases continue to take a back seat, but for what it is worth, today brings Canadian Labor data. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.51%) Rallied to January 2017 highs at 116.79. MAs pointing right, MACD signal line & histogram hold well above 0 line, RSI 76 & flat, all implying near term consolidation but overall strong positive bias. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 14, 2022 Author Share Posted March 14, 2022 Date : 14th March 2022. Market Update – March 14. The Ukraine war remains in focus, but the FOMC announcement and the BoE decision are also coming into view. Russia’s attack on Ukraine seemed to intensify over the weekend, with bombs falling near the Polish border. US reports that Russia has asked China for military assistance also flagged the risk of a further escalation of the war, but at the same time there were some hopes of diplomatic progress ahead of fresh talks. USD (USDIndex 99.05) strong, helped by speculation that the spike in commodity prices will push the FOMC into an aggressive tightening cycle. US Yields 10-yr jumped 4.6 bp to 2.037%, amid speculation that the spike in commodity prices will push the Fed into an aggressive rate hike cycle. The June 10-year Bund future is slightly lower, but outperforming versus US futures, which have sold off. Equities – GER30 and UK100 are up 1.1% and 0.6% respectively, with US futures also higher. USA100 closed with a -0.95% decline, while the USA500 and Dow were down -0.43% and -0.34%, respectively. Nike and Apple weighed on the blue chips, while all 11 S&P sectors were in the red. Communications services and technology lagged, both down 1.8%, while utilities outperformed, about 0.4% lower. Reuters: China, the world’s largest crude oil importer and second largest consumer after the United States, is seeing a surge in COVID-19 cases, as the highly transmissible Omicron variant spreads to more cities, triggering outbreaks from Shanghai to Shenzhen. USOil – shed to $103.50 and consolidating as diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine geared up and markets braced for higher US interest rates. Gold – lower at $1971 ahead of FED. FX markets – EURUSD is consolidating above the 1.09 mark amid lingering hopes that diplomatic efforts can prevent a further escalation of the war in Ukraine, USDJPY rising to levels last seen in 2017, with the pair currently trading at 117.83 and Cable languishes at 1.3018. The Yen struggled, and even more so AUD overnight. Fed policy outlook: the FOMC meets (Tuesday, Wednesday) and this will be an important meeting, even though it will be overshadowed by the Ukraine war and the extreme volatile and uncertainties in the markets. What the latter have done, however, is temper any potential aggressive action from the Fed and other central banks as policymakers look to address decades high, if not record inflation, while not driving growth into the ground. Along with the universally expected 25 bp hike, versus the 50 bps or even 75 bp a few weeks ago, new quarterly projections will also be released. These forecasts will be subject to tremendous uncertainty, but we see big downward revisions to 2022 GDP growth and huge upside boosts to PCE chain prices estimates. Today – The FOMC announcement on Wednesday is already casting its shadow. The BoE is due Thursday and also expected to hike rates again, after the better-than-expected GDP report from last week and with officials noting upside surprises in wage growth. Official UK labour market data is due tomorrow, but for today, the European calendar is relatively quiet. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) Palladium (-6.33%) Dipped to 2578. MAs pointing down, MACD signal line & histogram hold well above 0 line, RSI 23 & falling, all implying negative bias. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 15, 2022 Author Share Posted March 15, 2022 Date : 15th March 2022. Market Update – March 15. Markets are pricing in aggressive Fed moves and while the Treasury rate managed to correct slightly from yesterday’s highs, rates across Asia moved higher, with Japan’s up 1.6 bp and China’s 3.9 bp, while Australia’s was up 6.5 bp.. Stock markets meanwhile were mostly lower after a largely weaker close on Wall Street. Bond markets were under pressure across the Asia Pacific region with inflation risks and the Fed outlook in focus. China’s PBOC failed to cut the MLF interest rate as many had expected and the RBA minutes also flagged heightened uncertainty on the inflation outlook, even as the bank vowed to remain patient on rates for now. Growth data out of China may have been stronger than anticipated, but the country’s Covid policy, which has now shut down the important tech hub of Shenzhen, has investors spooked. USD (USDIndex under the 99 mark). US Yields US 10-year rate has corrected -1.2 bp to 2.12%. Equities – Hang Seng and CSI 300 lost a further -5.7% and -4.2% respectively. The ASX was down -0.7% at the close. The USA100 slumped -2.04%, with the USA500 falling -0.74%, and the USA30 unchanged. USOil – shed to $95.13 as ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine eased fears of further supply disruptions and surging COVID-19 cases in China fuelled concerns about slower demand. Gold – lower at $1929 on higher yields ahead of Fed meeting. FX markets – USDJPY continues to rise and is now at 118.35. AUD and NZD underperformed. EURUSD retests 1.1020, GBPUSD holds below 1.3050. European Open: The June 10-year Bund future is up 11 ticks, Treasury futures are also finding buyers. Some consolidation then after the sharp sell off in EGBs yesterday, with safe haven flows picking up again, and GER30 and FTSE 100 futures posting losses of -0.8% and -0.94% respectively. Concern that overly aggressive central bank moves could stifle growth has picked up again and hopes of a quick breakthrough in Ukraine-Russian peace talks were also disappointed yesterday. There was some positive noise on talks between the US and China, but at the same time there are some suggestions China is indeed mulling economic and military assistance to Russia. Today – For data German ZEW and US February PPI are due. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USOIL (-5.82%) Dipped to 95.13. MAs pointing down, MACD signal line & histogram extend below 0, RSI 30 & falling, all implying negative bias. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 16, 2022 Author Share Posted March 16, 2022 Date : 16th March 2022. Market Update – March 16 – FOMC Rate Hike Day. There was a bounce in US Equities following a collapse in the Oil price to under $100 as Zelenskiy suggests Ukraine will not seek NATO membership & talks with Russia are more “realistic”. Putin’s shelling and grind forward continues. US warns-off any sanction busting Chinese move, more sanctions from the West on Russian property, goods and people, Russia sanctions Biden & Clinton as it prepares for a massive default. Big rally in China shares following Covid infection spike collapse on Monday and a return of risk appetite. USD (USDIndex 98.80). Struggling to hold 99.00 so far this week, and last weeks 99.40 high. US Yields 10-yr up to 2.16% on close – up to 2.18% now. Equities – USA500 +89.34 (+2.14%) 4262. US500 FUTS higher at 4287 now. Airlines rallied over +9%, Exxon & Chevron lost -5.0% as oil prices collapsed. USOil – Tanked from $105.00 highs on Monday to $92.70 yesterday. $97.40 now. Gold – Down again to $1906, trades at $1915 now. Bitcoin tested new March lows at $37,160 yesterday, trades at $38,600 now. FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.0960, USDJPY holds over 118.00 & multiple year highs at 118.40 and Cable tested to the key 1.3000 yesterday, back to 1.3050 now. European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is down 82 ticks, underperforming versus US futures. Yields corrected yesterday amid a sharp correction in oil prices and as demand concerns tempered supply disruptions. With the FOMC announcement coming into view, bonds are under pressure again, while DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 2% and 1.3% respectively. China vowed to support markets and the economy, which helped to revive risk appetite. Dollar and Yen retreated as safe-haven demand faded and oil prices stabilized after dropping sharply in recent sessions. Today – US Retail Sales, Export/Import Prices & Canadian CPI, FOMC Policy Announcement & Powell Press Conference. Also Weekly Oil Inventories & ECB’s Elderson & Panetta Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.43%) Rallied from 84.60 lows yesterday to over 85.50 now. Friday’s high was 85.88. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram hold over 0 line, RSI 66 & rising, H1 ATR 0.1300, Daily ATR 0.9300. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 17, 2022 Author Share Posted March 17, 2022 Date : 17th March 2022. Market Update – March 17 – Hawkish & Faster Moving FED. The FOMC raised rates as expected by 25bps AND also announced a further six hikes in 2022 and four in 2023 (which was not necessarily expected). Chair Powell’s press conference soothed the initial hawkish reaction. US stocks leapt higher (NASDAQ +3.77%) USD cooled and Yields moved up. Canada Inflation was hotter than expected, US Retail Sales softer and NZD GDP missed significantly. Overnight AUD Jobs & CHF trade balance both beat significantly. Asian stocks rallied (Nikkei +3%) led by China’s continued bounce back. Biden called Putin a “war criminal”, Russia & Ukraine still talking, China & Israel tout mediator credentials. BoE Preview: Recent comments suggest that the central bank remains on course to lift the Bank Rate by another 25 bp to 0.75%. The latest BoE survey flagged upside surprises on wage growth and with energy bills going through the roof second round effects from the inflation overshoot are already materialising. Against that background, this is unlikely to be the latest rate hike – at least in the central scenario. Like the ECB, the BoE will have to keep some degree of flexibility on policy options as stagflation risks are mounting, but with the Fed flagging a series of rate hikes this year, and even the ECB on course to normalise policy, the BoE has more cover to continue to tighten policy. USD (USDIndex 98.28). Tested 99.00 briefly on FED down after Powell. US Yields 10-yr up to 2.188% on close – down to 2.15% now. Equities – USA500 +95.41 (+2.24%) 4357. US500 FUTS flat at 4347 now. Tech rallied FB +6%, NFLX & TSLA +4.78%, Starbucks + 5.16%. USOil – Found support at $93.00 yesterday. $96.40 now. Gold – Down to test $1900 yesterday, trades at $1934 now. Bitcoin tested over $41,000 yesterday, trades at $40,600 now. FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1035, USDJPY holds over 118.00 & 5-year highs at 118.75 and Cable tested to the key 1.3000 yesterday, back to 1.3050 now. European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 26 ticks, U.S. futures are also backing up from yesterday’s lows. Yields have started to move up from overnight lows, but for now it seems bonds are set for a positive start, despite the Fed decision yesterday. Still, markets were pretty much prepared and took solace in the Fed’s apparent confidence that the economy can withstand the withdrawal of support. Coupled with China’s promise to support markets and the economy that is bolstering stock markets confidence, with DAX and FTSE 100 futures up 0.4% and 0.2% at the moment. There doesn’t seem to be progress in Russia-Ukraine talks though, which will likely keep a lid on indexes, that already jumped higher yesterday. Investors may also be cautious ahead of today’s BoE announcement. Today – EZ CPI, US Weekly Claims, Ind. Prod., Japanese CPI, BoE & CBRT Policy Announcements, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Lane & Schnabel. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.43%) Rally continues big move yesterday to from .0.6730 lows Tuesday to over 0.6885 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram hold over 0 line, RSI 69 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00162, Daily ATR 0.0071. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 21, 2022 Author Share Posted March 21, 2022 Date : 21st March 2022. Market Update – March 18 – BOE move, BOJ stay put – Stocks, Yields & Oil bounce. Risk aversion continues to dominate as Russia’s attack intensifies and hopes of resolution through talks fade. Stagflation concerns and the longer term impact on the recovery are keeping a lid on stock markets and complicating the outlook for central banks. The BoE managed to pull off a “dovish rate hike” last week, China’s central bank kept lending rate unchanged in line with expectations, while SNB is expected to keep policy settings on hold this week. At the same time, China’s lockdown in the tech hub of Shenzhen threatens to lead to ongoing delays in long awaited deliveries. German PPI inflation hit 25.9% y/y in February – sharp rise in cost pressures even before the impact of the Ukraine war had really taken hold. Energy price inflation hit 68.0% y/y. No surprise that many at the ECB are getting nervous, especially as the risk of rising wage pressures is mounting. USD steady (USDIndex 98.30) Equities – After PBOC, Asian shares were down. ASX was down -0.2% at the close, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently posting losses of -0.9% and -0.2% respectively. US futures are also in the red, after the strongest week since November 2020. GER40 and UK100 futures are down -0.2% and -0.02% respectively. USOil – Rallied to $108.80 – attacks by Iran-backed rebels on energy facilities in Saudi Arabia pushed up prices. Gold – remains under pressure at $1925. Bitcoin holds the break of $40,000 yesterday, trades at $41,055 now. FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1050, unable to hold breach of 1.1100, USDJPY at 119.20 and Cable pullback to 1.3155. Today – There are a number of ECB and BoE speakers scheduled this week that could attract attention in nervous markets. PMI reports in particular will be in focus in light of Ukraine tensions and the pick up in energy prices. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USOIL (+4.03%) Rally continues to 109.36, reversing 50% of March losses. Fast MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram strong, RSI 79 and rising, H1 ATR 0.87, Daily ATR 9.25. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria PichidiCowell Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 22, 2022 Author Share Posted March 22, 2022 Date : 22nd March 2022. Market Update – March 22 – Rate-hike bets weigh. The surge in Treasury yields was the story of Monday’s trading after Fed Chair Powell underscored the hawkish stance coming out of the FOMC meeting. The reaction in bonds showed a lot of jitters over the outlook and the ability of the Fed to achieve a soft landing. The US curve flattened markedly yesterday as the short end underperformed amid concern the Fed will hike rates aggressively. Stock market sentiment still looked much better across Asia than in Europe and even the US. The US Dollar was sought as oil prices lifted with WTI currently trading at $114.90. Energy prices are on the rise again and central banks are set to rein in stimulus with ECB’s Rehn yesterday confirming that in the central scenario the ECB is eyeing a lift off in rates for Q4 or maybe Q1 next year. Wall Street was depressed in choppy action, correcting from the prior week’s healthy gains as the FOMC looks to rein in demand to help address the inflation pop, which now looks to be longer lasting and more widespread due to the supply shock from the Ukraine war. USD up (USDIndex 98.94). 10-year Treasury rate is up 4.7 bp, the 2-year 7.0 bp, June 10-year Bund future is down 70 ticks, US futures are down -12 ticks. The JGB rate has lifted 1.1 bp and rates in Australia and New Zealand jumped 14.0 bp and 13.0 bp respectively in catch up trade. Equities – Nikkei lifted 1.5%, ASX lifted 0.86%, and the Hang Seng jumped 2.1%, even as US futures declined. Hong Kong was boosted by Alibaba Group Holding Ltd’s $25 bln share buyback program and by contrast, the CSI 300 is currently slightly in the red. The USA30 slid -0.58%, with the USA100 sliding -0.4%, while the USA500 was off -0.04%. USOil – renewed rise in oil prices, to $112.22 – currently lower to 108.68. Gold – remains under pressure at $1934. Bitcoin breaches the $43,400, trades at $42,185 now. FX markets – EURUSD dips to 1.0960, USDJPY climbed to 120.48 and Cable rallied to 1.3136. Today – UK public finance data and even more so the presentation of the budget will be of interest also for markets. The calendar today has Eurozone current account data, which is unlikely to attract too much attention. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) BTCUSD (+2.63%) Rally continues to 43,437, breaking the top of March 18. Fast MAs flattened along with RSI (59) but MACD signal line & histogram remain strong, implying near term pullback. H1 ATR 479.989, Daily ATR 2405.790. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria PichidiCowell Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 23, 2022 Author Share Posted March 23, 2022 Date : 23rd March 2022. Market Update – March 23 – “Inflation leads”. European bond markets have sold off today following, Bund future is down -15 ticks, US futures are also lower, with yields extending the March spike across the globe. Curves shifted higher pretty much across the board, but with the short end underperforming slightly amid lingering stagflation concerns. UK’s inflation today hit 6.2% y/y (30-year highs) in February. The RPI – still an important measure for wage negotiations – stood at 8.3% y/y in February and coupled with an increasingly tight labour market the risk of second round inflation effects clearly are rising, as is the pressure on the government to do something to ease the jump in the cost of living. Ukraine developments aside, fiscal responses to the jump in energy prices also are in focus this week, as governments discuss ways to cushion the impact and the UK budget is set to be unveiled today. Companies are not only facing a sharp rise in energy costs, but also supply chain disruptions as the Ukraine war puts a stop to deliveries of intermediate goods that have disrupted German car production in particular. At the same time, China’s lockdown in the tech-hub of Shenzen threatens to lead to ongoing delays in long awaited deliveries. USD is ranging(USDIndex 98.50). 10-year Treasury has lifted 1.3 bp to 2.395% overnight. Equities – Stock markets remained supported across Asia, and GER40 and UK100 futures are posting gains of 0.8% and 0.7% respectively, with US futures also higher, but under performing. Wall Street continued to see the glass half full and rallied, led by the USA100 1.95% pop, with the USA500 up 1.13% and the USA30 0.74% higher. Nikkei has rallied another 3%. USOil – firm above the $105 per barrel mark and Ukraine developments remain in focus, although stock markets still seem back in demand. Gold – remains under pressure at $1919. Bitcoin pullback to the $41,700. FX markets – EURUSD steady at 1.1020, USDJPY extends to 121.40 and Cable crossed 20-DMA, currently at 1.3260. Today – Chancellor Sunak will present his spring budget today amid mounting pressure that he ditches the planned rise in national insurance contributions.Looking ahead PMI reports (Thursday) in particular will be in focus in the light of Ukraine tensions and the pick up in energy prices. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.23%) Rallied to 0.7476. Fast MAs flattened along with RSI (59) while MACD histogram turn below signal line, implying near term pullback/consolidation. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0084. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria PichidiCowell Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 24, 2022 Author Share Posted March 24, 2022 Date : 24th March 2022. Market Update – March 24 – Stocks come back? Treasuries recovered yesterday after some hefty losses in recent sessions pushed some rates up to the cheapest levels since May 2019. Reports of big inflows into Treasuries from quarterly portfolio rebalancing supported the rally, as did a stellar 20-year sale. And buying begot more buying to leave rates measurably lower. Today there is a somewhat different picture than yesterday, as bonds rallied across the board and stocks traded mixed. Japanese markets corrected some of this week’s stellar gains after the minutes to the latest BoJ meeting showed officials flagging the risk of overshooting inflation. Oil prices are consolidating at high levels, as the Ukraine war drags on. For Europe, Putin’s demand that future gas deliveries should be paid in rubles raised the risk of imminent embargoes, as it may force the west to break its own sanctions. Energy prices will remain high then, putting pressure on governments to ease the burden for consumers and complicating the outlook for central banks. The UK budget was based on a sharply lower growth projection and a markedly higher inflation forecast and more revisions could well be necessary. USD up (USDIndex 98.88). 10-year Bund future is slightly higher, while the Treasury future is down 8 ticks, and in cash markets the US 10-year rate has lifted 4.7 bps to 2.339%. Equities – Tencent Holdings Ltd reported its slowest pace of quarterly growth on record, which kept a lid on the Hang Seng. In the ASX there were gains for miners and others benefiting from stronger commodity prices. DAX and FTSE 100 futures up 0.1% and a 0.5% rise in the NASDAQ is leading US futures higher. USOil – consolidated at high levels and USOIL is now at $114.89 after posting a high at 116.62. Gold – ranging at $1943. Bitcoin up, retesting the $43,500 resistance level again. FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.0974, USDJPY extends to 121.73 and Cable steady at yesterday’s low, at 1.3179. Today – SNB and Norges Bank are set to announce policy today, with the latter seen delivering another rate hike. Data releases include preliminary PMI reports for the Eurozone, UK and US, along with Durable goods. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (+0.32%) Rebounded to 0.9344. Fast MAs aligned higher, RSI at 60 and Stochastic at OB, while MACD remains negative. H1 ATR 0.00088, Daily ATR 0.00658. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria PichidiCowell Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 28, 2022 Author Share Posted March 28, 2022 Date : 28th March 2022. Market Update – March 28 – Yen, Oil & Stocks Dive as BOJ Remains “Ultra Loose”. BOJ announced unlimited bond buying policy, but yields still rose and YEN crashed, pulling down Asian stock & Oil markets, also hit by a strict 11-day lockdown in Shanghai (27 mill.). The US Treasury 5-to-30-yr yield curve has inverted for the first time since 2006, history suggests slowdown & possible recession. US 10-yr back over 2.5%. USD bid. APPLE talks of long-term subscription model moving away from selling products, as it reduces supply of iPhone SE & AirPods. Biden & Blinkin “clarify” – “Putin cannot remain in power” comments, Zelensky talks of neutrality but insists on geographic integrity, walking back earlier comments. Russian & Ukrainian negotiators to meet in Istanbul later. Israel hosts 4-Arab states & Blinkin, NK tests more ICBM’s. Japan tightens FX laws and Crypto loopholes to sanction Russia. Week Ahead – US NFP (380k), US, UK and Canada GDP and many central bankers’ speeches. USD (USDIndex 99.14). closed Friday 98.85. Friday’s US data weak (Pending Home Sales at 2-yr low & Consumer Sentiment at 11-yr low) US Yields 10-yr up to 2.53% currently & new 3-yr highs, from Friday’s close 2.492% Equities – USA500 +22.90 (+0.51%) 4543. US500 FUTS now at 4519 now. (Closed up +1.8% last week – Nasdaq best performer last week +2.0%. USOil – Fell to start the new week to $108.94 now – from Friday’s close at $112.50 Gold – slipped to $1935 now, from Fridays close at $1955. Bitcoin breaks up 4.4% from the 42k-45K range to $46,800 now. FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.0950, unable to hold breach of 1.1000, USDJPY over 123.00 & new 7-year highs and Cable back to 1.3130 now, from over 1.3200 on Friday. European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is down -78 ticks at 157.87, underperforming versus Treasuries. A lockdown in Shanghai weighed on the CSI overnight and left oil prices lower, while the Ukraine war’s drag on Europe’s energy costs is set to remain extremely high, with the resulting spike in the cost of living hitting consumers and consumption trends in many countries. In the UK that has already become apparent and last week’s budget offered not enough relief to soothe concerns. DAX and FTSE 100 are up 0.056% and 0.054% respectively at the moment. A cautious start for stocks then into a data heavy week that brings the final round of Eurozone confidence numbers for March and preliminary inflation reports that are likely to look ugly. Today – ASEAN summit, US 2yr and 5yr supply, Trade Goods Balance & US Inventories. Speech from BoE Governor Bailey. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.98%) Big move against JPY today, continues trend of weaker YEN. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram strong but cooling, RSI 71, OB but rising, H1 ATR 0.281, Daily ATR 1.120. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 29, 2022 Author Share Posted March 29, 2022 Date : 29th March 2022. Market Update – March 29 – Yields in focus, Oil down again, TESLA rallies. Trading Leveraged Products is risky USD holds gains (USDJPY broke 125.00) and Treasury market fell again with US Treasury 5-to-30-yr yield curve remaining inverted suggesting economic slowdown & possible recession. US 10-yr slips back under 2.5%. Oil markets slumped (-1.0%) again on worries from Shanghai lockdown. US stocks rallied (NASDAQ +1.71%) growth stocks (TESLA +8%) gained as Banks & Energy stocks (Exxon -2.81%) fell. Asian markets higher (Nikkei & ASX +0.8%) except Chinese stocks. BoE’s Bailey warned of a worse energy crisis than in the 70s, & highlighted that the BoE had already softened its rate guidance, even as it hiked rates again and flagged the chance of further tightening. Russian & Ukrainian negotiators meet in Istanbul later today. Limited expectations. Israel/Arab summit talked of united front to confront Iran. Biden proposed $5.79 trillion budget for next year increasing spending on Defence & raising taxes on wealthy. UK Met. Police to issue “Partygate” fines “imminently”. Overnight – AUD Retail Sales better than expected (1.8% vs 0.9% & 1.8%)) & JPY Unemployment better (2.7% vs 2.8% & 2.8%) German GfK Consumer confidence missed -15.5 vs -14.6 & -8.1 last time). USD (USDIndex 99.00). Rallied to top at 99.35 yesterday. US Yields 10-yr up to 2.53% new 3-yr highs yesterday, now down to 2.483% Equities – USA500 +32.01 (+0.71%) 4575. US500 FUTS now at 4572 now. TSLA suggested another stock split and rallied over 8.0%, AMC up over +45% as the meme stocks raised their heads again. USOil – Fell again (over 1.1%) to $102.80 yesterday, but has recovered $105.00. Gold – slipped to $1916 yesterday from Friday’s close $1955. Back to $1922 now. Bitcoin holds onto gains over 45K to top at 48.1K, yesterday, back to 47.5k now. FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.1000, now after 1.0950 test yesterday, USDJPY over 125.00 & new 7-yr highs back to 123.40 now as JP Government signals worries over weak Yen. Cable back to 1.3066 yesterday, recovered 1.3100 now. European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is down 33 ticks, while in cash markets the 2-year Treasury yield is up 2.8 bp. Curve flattening continues as markets fret about the risk that aggressive central bank action will sap demand. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.9% and 0.6% respectively, US futures are also slightly higher, after a largely positive session across Asia, with hopes of progress in scheduled peace talks between Russia and Ukraine this week helping to underpin confidence. Today – US JOLTS, CB Consumer Confidence & Case-Schiller Housing Index. Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Bostic & Harker, ECB’s Kazimir. EARNINGS – Micron & Lululemon. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.34%) BOJ & Japanese Government raise concerns over weak Yen, following break of 125.00. MAs turned lower, MACD signal line & histogram now cooling, RSI 49.55, OB but rising, H1 ATR 0.403, Daily ATR 1.123. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 Date : 30th March 2022. Market Update – March 30 – USD Dips, Stocks Rally, Yen Recovers. USD & Yields dipped and Stocks & Euro rallied (NASDAQ 1.84%) following Russia-Ukraine negotiations. US data (Case-Schiller Housing Index, JOLTS & Consumer Confidence) all stronger than expected adding to high inflation and tight jobs market scenario. Yen recovered on chatter of BOJ intervention, and Oil & Gold dipped before recovering. The yield curve extended it’s inversion as 10-yr yields dipped under 2.0% before lifting. Asian markets followed US higher (Nikkei & ASX +1.0%, Shanghai 1.51%). Overnight – JPY Retail Sales missed (-0.8%% vs -0.3% & 1.1%) German regional CPI coming in hotter than expected (i.e. North Rhine Westphalia March CPI +7.6% vs +5.3%). USD (USDIndex 98.16). Dipped further to 98.00 zone before recovering. US Yields 10-yr closed at 2.40% and under 2.0% overnight, now back to 2.36% Equities – USA500 +56.01 (+1.23%) 4631. US500 FUTS 4572 now. APPLE rose for an 11th consecutive day (+1.91%), HOOD up over +24% following AMC rally (+45%) the day before and GME dropped -5.11% 45% as the meme stocks raised their heads again. USOil – Fell again (over 1.0%) to $98.65 yesterday, but has recovered to $107.00. Gold – slipped to $1890 yesterday from Friday’s close at $1955. Back to $1925 now. Bitcoin holds onto gains over 45K to top at 48.1K, yesterday, back to 47.4k now. FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.1136 now after 1.0950 test Monday, USDJPY over 125.00 & new 7-yr highs Monday back to 122.00 now as JP Government signals worries over weak Yen. Cable back to 1.3120 now. European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 43 ticks, US futures are also higher, DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.1% and up 0.1% respectively, as the initial euphoria over the positive headlines on the progress of Russia-Ukraine peace talks has faded. It still seems a long way to a final agreement and oil prices have backed up from lows under $100 seen in the wake of the initial headlines on the talks yesterday. Meanwhile concern that aggressive central bank action will sap the recovery is lingering. The 2-10 year part of the U.S. Treasury curve inverted yesterday for the first time since 2019, but while the 2-year has dropped back again since, 3 and 5 year rates are still holding above the 10 year. ECB chief economist Lane was out yesterday repeating that a rate hike in Q4 is not cast in stone and that rate moves will be data dependent. Today – German CPI Prelim, US ADP & GDP (Final/Q4), Speeches from Fed’s Barkin, Bostic & George, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Broadbent Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.76%) Fear of BOJ intervention lifted YEN pairs. Next support 121.00 MAs turned lower, MACD signal line & histogram now below 0 line and cooling, RSI 36, H1 ATR 0.310, Daily ATR 1.31. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 31, 2022 Author Share Posted March 31, 2022 Date : 31st March 2022. Market Update – March 31 – Volatile Q1 Comes to a Conclusion. USD, Yields & Stocks (NASDAQ -1.21%) all dipped. Oil tanked over -6% – President Biden suggested releasing 180 mln barrels from US Strategic Reserve & OPEC stand firm on no production increases. Euro & Yen continued recovery, Gold lifted on weaker USD. Yield curve extended it’s inversion. ADP in-line at 455K ahead of NFP tomorrow, but Final Q4 GDP slipped a tick to 6.9% and German Inflation much hotter (7.3%) than expected, the highest since 1981 when the German bank rate was 11.4% while the ECB hangs on to 0% currently. Asian markets traded cautiously at month-end following the weak lead from the US. Overnight – Chinese PMIs sink in contraction for first time since 2020 – Manu. 49.5 vs. 49.9 & Services 48.4 vs. 53.2. AUD Building Approvals & JPY Housing Starts both big beats. German Retail Sales fell significantly (0.3% vs 1.4%) UK Final Q4 GDP beats at 1.3% vs 1.0% (2021 final reading 6.6%) House Price Inflation much higher than expected (1.1% vs 0.5%). USD (USDIndex 97.88). Dipped further to test 97.70 yesterday before recovering. US Yields 10-yr closed at 2.358% , now back to 2.349%. Equities – USA500 -29.15 (–0.63%) at 4602. US500 FUTS 4602 now too from 4622. APPLE (-0.66%) broke 11-day run looks to move into Fin. Services, use Chinese chips, HOOD –8.49% & AMC –12.77% continue meme stock volatility. Lululemon (+9.58%) following good Earnings this week. USOil – Touched $100.65 after Biden news broke, but has recovered to $102.40. Gold – rallied to $1937 yesterday, before falling back to $1922 now. Bitcoin holds onto gains over 45K to trade at 47.0k now. FX markets – EURUSD rallied to 1.1185 earlier, back to test 1.1165 now, USDJPY holds at 122.00 now from 121.30 lows yesterday as BOJ continue to defend JGB yield ceiling. Cable back to 1.3130 now. European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is down -15 ticks at 157.01, US futures are little changed. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are fractionally higher. Today – Month & Quarter End Balancing, German Unemployment, US Weekly Claims, PCE Price Index, OPEC+ Meeting, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, ECB’s Lane & de Guindos. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.44%) Continues to rally off 4.5 year lows at 1.4535 on Monday. Next resistance 1.5000. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher but cooling, RSI 70 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0021, Daily ATR 0.152. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 1, 2022 Author Share Posted April 1, 2022 Date : 1st April 2022. Market Update – April 1 – USD & Treasuries Recover, Stocks Weaker again. USD & Treasuries recovered as Yields & Stocks (NASDAQ -1.54%) fell. US markets had their worst Quarter in 2 years. USOil slipped (–4%) & under $100 as President Biden confirmed releasing 180 mln barrels from US Strategic Reserve over the next 6-months & OPEC confirm no production increases. Yield curve extended it’s inversion. Russia threatens Europe (again) “pay in Roubles or we’ll cut off the Gas”. Core PCE: in-line at 0.4%, Weekly Claims missed at 202K vs 195k but still below normal levels, and Chicago PMI’s surprised significantly to the upside (62.9 vs 56.3) Asian markets traded cautiously following another weak US session, mixed data releases and an extension of the Shanghai lockdown. Overnight – Chinese Caixin Manu. PMI’s sink in contraction for first time since 2020 – Manu. 48.1 vs. 50.4. AUD AIG Manu Index ticked higher & JPY Manu PMI (54.1 vs. 53.2) & Tankan Services PMI (9 vs. 5) both beat. USD (USDIndex 98.50). rallied from test of 97.70 yesterday. US Yields 10-yr closed at 2.32% , now back to 2.361%. Equities – USA500 -72.15 (1.57%) at 4530. US500 FUTS 4547. Banks & Technology stocks led the broadbased month end decline. USOil – Trades at $98.65 following Biden announcement. (Opened the week on Monday at 112.50. Gold – rallied to $1950 yesterday, before falling back to $1937 now. Bitcoin slips under the key 45K to trade at 44.7k now. FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1055 now from 1.1170 yesterday. USDJPY holds at 122.40 now from 121.30 lows again yesterday as BOJ continue to defend JGB yield ceiling. Cable back to 1.3120 now. European Open – The German 10-year rate is up 3.2 bp at 0.575%, alongside a 4.1 bp rise in the U.S. Treasury yield. However, while U.S. Treasury futures are moving higher, led by a 0.5% rise in the NASDAQ, DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.1% and -0.05% respectively. The uncertainty over what will happen to Russian gas exports to Europe is hanging over markets, amid fears that shortages will force producers to halt or throttle production. Germany’s Scholz tried to calm nerves over Putin’s announcement that payments will have to be made in Rubles, although whether Moscow’s proposal that payments in EUR will have to be paid into Gazprombank and then transferred into Rubles is a way forward remains to be seen. The war meanwhile drags on and while another round of video-talks between Ukraine and Russia are reportedly scheduled for today there is no sign of a breakthrough just yet. EZ inflation is going through the roof and today’s preliminary Eurozone HICP report is likely to look very ugly. ECB chief economist Lane has already laid the ground for an overshoot though, by turning dovish again and saying that the ECB must be ready to move in either direction in this situation. Today – EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMIs, US Labour Market Report, ISM Manufacturing PMI, China-EU Summit, Ukraine-Russia negotiators to meet again, Speech from Fed’s Evans. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.57%) Continues to rally off 121.30 lows this week. Next resistance 123.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & over 0 line, RSI 61 & rising, H1 ATR 0.211, Daily ATR 1.310. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 6, 2022 Author Share Posted April 6, 2022 Date : 6th April 2022. Market Update – April 6 – Treasury yields soared & FOMC Minutes ahead. USD & Treasury yields have been rising. Stock markets have been under pressure, hit by the surge in yields with the tech-heavy index (USA100) plunging -2.26% as selling picked up into the close. The market has priced in a lot of bearish elements, yields shot higher again on hawkish comments from Fed, RBA. Disappointing China PMI reports weighed on both bond and stock market sentiment. USOil up to $102.48 as West mulls further sanctions against Russia. – Saudi boosted prices by over by $2 per barrel in late March. US coal prices climbed over $100 a ton today for the first time in 13 years after the EU said it is mulling restricting coal imports from Russia. US Rates on the 5-, 7-, and 10-year maturities were up almost 17 bps to 2.7108%, 2.678%, and 2.565%, respectively. The bond was 13.5 bps higher at 2.596%, while the 2-year rose over 10 bps to 2.526%. The bear curve steepened to 4.8 bps, after having been inverted for the prior three sessions at -3 bps Monday and -8 bps Friday. USD (USDIndex 99.72) rallied from 98.80 yesterday. Equities – USA500 -72.15 (1.57%) at 4530. US500 FUTS 4547. Banks & Technology stocks led the broadbased month end decline. Gold – steady at $1920 low after 1947 high yesterday. Bitcoin closing the gap at 45370? FX markets – EURUSD dipped to 1.0883, USDJPY continued to struggle at 124.04, Cable back to 1.3120 now. AUD and NZD also remained supported as yields moved higher. European Open – The German manufacturing orders came in much weaker than expected, with orders falling -2.2% m/m in February. The actual slump was a surprise that will add to concerns that the German manufacturing sector could be heading for recession as the spike in energy prices and supply chain disruptions hit Germany’s industrial core. Exports orders dropped -3.3% in February. FOMC preview: The minutes should prove very interesting to the markets as they should provide details on the balance sheet run off. We’ll also read the various comments about the abrupt, hawkish pivot from the FOMC, although we already know that the threat of surging inflation and the likelihood that it would not prove as “transitory” as expected, along with the robust recovery and strength in the labor market, were the major factors that finally forced the Fed to shift into high gear by accelerating the pace of trimming accommodation and then eye aggressive rate hikes. The dot plot reflected the pivot, and Fedspeak since then has affirmed it. Governor Brainard’s comments Tuesday, in fact, indicated the Fed would announce the start of balance sheet reduction as soon as May. She also supported her colleagues’ views on the need for a larger and speedier pace of balance sheet runoff. We will look for details on that in the minutes. We suspect at a minimum the Fed will double the pace of that from the last cycle with $60 bln in Treasuries and $30 bln in MBS, although the still hot housing market could see a higher cap on MBS. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (+0.37%) At 6-day highs and close to R2 at 0.9331. Next resistance 0.9376. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & over 0 line, RSI 77 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00087, Daily ATR 0.00617. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 11, 2022 Author Share Posted April 11, 2022 Market Update – Stocks & Treasuries tank, Oil down again. Yields bid, Stocks sink, EUR recovers, Oil lower – Treasuries dived into close on Friday and are down again to start the week, and all other markets are taking a lead from the pronounced move. Official confirmed BOJ will maintain loose monetary policy. Stocks were mixed on Friday (NASDAQ -1.34%) weak in Asia (Covid & weak fixed income markets) & UK & European FUTS. down (-0.2 to 0.6%). Yields rally as curve steepens – US 10-yr now at 2.776%. EUR picked up after French Election result. USD bid elsewhere. USD bid especially vs. weaker JPY (over 125), AUD, CAD & NZD. Oil down 2% – after addition reserves released from EIA countries. Pope calls on Russian & Ukraine leaders to observe Easter truce. Biden to meet Modi and call for no increases in Russian oil imports, Johnson met Zelenskiy in Kiev, Zelenskiy praised Scholz & Germany after meeting. Putin replaces top field General, focuses on Eastern Ukraine, reports he sees victory within 4-weeks. Overnight – Chinese inflation leaps – CPI 1.5% vs 1.3% & 0.9% previously, PPI cools 8.3%vs. 8.1% & 8.8% previously. Weak UK GDP February m/m GDP +0.1% vs +0.3% m/m expected, other industrial data also missed, pressures Sterling. Week Ahead – The second week of April has some key data releases topped by the rate decision from the ECB, supported by decisions & outlooks from BOC & RBNZ. Global Inflation data from China, Germany, the UK & US, US Retail Sales data and Australian Jobs data will provide more guidance on the outlook. The week also the heralds the start of the Q1 Earnings Season with the major Wall Street banks all reporting. USDIndex rallied to new high 100.17 since May 2020 on Friday, trades at 99.80 now. US Yields 10-yr closed higher again at 2.713, up again now to 2.77%. Equities – USA500 -12 (-0.27%) at 4488. – US500 FUTS 4476. Technology stocks & Consumer Discretionary led decline, & Energy led value stocks higher. TWTR -3.75% (ahead of Musk declining role on the board). USOil – Trades at $95.90 following rally to $98.00 on Friday and dip to $93.78, on Thursday. Oil markets lost over 3% last week. Gold – gyrated from $1937 to $1950 on Friday, back to $1945 now. Bitcoin continued to decline from key 45k to trade at 42k support now. FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.0900 now from 1.0835 on Friday. USDJPY breaks key 125.00 to trade at 125.20 and Cable sinks back to test 1.3000 as USD bid continues. European Open – European stocks up from early lows. European stock markets started lower, but have started to find a footing. DAX and FTSE 100 are still down -0.19% and -0.29% respectively, but the French CAC 40 is up 0.4%, against the background of easing election jitters after Macron managed to beat Le Pen in the first round of the presidential election yesterday. The two will now face each other in the final round on April 24, but with the result looking somewhat clearer than some polls had suggested French stocks are looking brighter this morning. Today – Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Bostic and Evans. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.99%) Recovering EUR and weaker JPY combine to push pair from 134.35 lows on Friday to 136.60 now. Next resistance 137.00 MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher, RSI 79.50, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.254, Daily ATR 1.54. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 12, 2022 Author Share Posted April 12, 2022 Date : 12th April 2022. Market Update – April 12 – Yields & USD Drive On, Stocks, JPY & EUR Lower. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Yields remain bid, supporting USD as Stocks sink. JPY & EUR remain weak. Oil recovers, Gold holds gains. – Stocks tanked (NASDAQ worst again -2.18%) Weak in Asia (Nikkei -1.72%) & UK & European FUTS. lower (0.2 to 0.6%). Yields rally as curve steepens – US 10-yr now at 2.824%. EUR fell again after minor rally following French Election result. USD bid elsewhere. USD bid especially vs. weaker JPY (over 125.50 ), AUD, CAD & NZD. Oil recovered from key support, up over $4/barrel as Shanghai eases some lockdowns. Biden told Modi that buying Russian oil is not in India’s “interest” & will help. Macron & Le Pen go on Election Blitz, Morrisson kicks off Australian Election campaign. Austrian PM meets Putin for 90 mins. New populist PM in Pakistan raises the min. wage. Zelenskiy says tens of thousands have died in Mariupol. Overnight – JPY PPI inflation beats – 9.5% vs. 9.2% & 9.7% previously. In line UK Wages & Unemployment with Claims lower. AUD big boost for Business Confidence (16 vs 13) and German HICP at 7.6%, levels last seen in the early 1980s. USDIndex rallied to test new high 100.17 , trades at 100.12 now. US Yields 10-yr closed higher again at 2.78, up again now to 2.824%. Equities – USA500 -75.75 (-1.69%) at 4412. – US500 FUTS 4393. Technology stocks & Consumer Discretionary led decline, TSLA -4.85%, NVDA -5.2% AT&T +7.46% USOil – Trades at $97.30 following a dip to $93.00, Shanghai eases some lockdowns. Gold – gyrated from $1969 to $1940, yesterday , back to $1958 now. Bitcoin continued to decline from key 45k to trade at 39.88k now. FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.0860 now from 1.0935 yesterday. USDJPY breaks key 125.50 to trade at 125.75 and Cable sinks back to test 1.3010 as USD bid continues. European Open – The German 10-year Bund yield is up 1.5 bp at 0.82%, the 10-year Gilt rate has lifted 1.7 bp at1.86% in opening trade, alongside a 3.3 bp rise in the U.S. Treasury yield. Eurozone spreads, which narrowed yesterday, are mostly wider this morning, especially at the short end, and the US curve has flattened slightly, as the short end underperforms ahead of key US inflation data. Markets are nervous that a higher than expected figure could prompt the Fed to head for an even more aggressive tightening cycle than currently expected and in Europe, the high German inflation reading is putting pressure on the ECB ahead of Thursday’s meeting. Today – US CPI, (1.2% m/m 8.4% y/y) – but watch the CORE figures for any sign of actual weakness. Speeches from Fed’s Barkin & Brainard. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.47%) Recovering from 4-day decline to below 0.6900 at 0.6893 earlier to 0.6935 now. Next resistance 0.6950 & 0.6970. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher but below 0, RSI 56.50 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00105, Daily ATR 0.00685. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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