HFM Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 Date : 16th December 2021. Market Update – 16/12/21 – FOMC – Taper Ends March, 3 x 25bps Rate Hikes 2022. “The economy no longer needs increasing amounts of policy support” – Powell Inflation “uncomfortably high” – has exceeded 2% target “for some time” Jobs – “we are making rapid progress toward maximum employment” Looking at a soft landing for economy, as Virus fades, Inflation dissipates on its own (2.6% 2022 – 2.1% 2024?) & Full employment (Unemployment @3.5%) runs through next 3 years. USD (USDIndex 96.21) rallied to 96.85 on FED weakened thereafter. Stocks rallied (Nasdaq best performer +2.15%) & Yields rallied. Omicron news mixed again with large rise in cases in UK, SA – Pfizer booster not as effective as elsewhere. US Yields 10yr traded up to 1.461% & holds gains. Equities – USA500 +75 (+1.63%) breaching key 4700 at 4709 – USA500.F trades up at 4727 knocking on the door of ATHs. USOil – rallied from under $70.00 to $71.41 on FED & Inventories. Gold held in check by higher yields & USD then reversed – sank to $1753 (46 day low) before bouncing to $1785. FX markets – EURUSD 1.1310 from 1.1225, USDJPY 114.10 from 114.25, Cable 1.3263 from 1.3170. European Open – March 10-yr Bund future slightly higher, as is the Treasury future, Stock markets have taken hawkish Fed pivot in their stride and DAX and FTSE 100 are up 1.5% and 1.1% respectively ahead of European central bank meetings today. Investors welcomed the clarity on the Fed path and will also have seen the move as a sign of confidence in the recovery. In Europe, ECB is set to confirm the end of PEPP, SNB is expected to keep policy settings unchanged, BoE and Norges Bank will discuss a rate hike in the shadow of Omicron. On balance it seems more likely that Norges Bank will go ahead with the planned hike, while BoE will sit out another meeting as the country debates a circuit breaker lockdown amid 78K virus cases (highest ever) yesterday and signs it’s spreading 4x faster than Delta, fears of hospitals being overrun with cases although milder and companies suffering with many workers off sick. Today – SNB, Norges, CBRT, BoE, ECB, Flash PMIs, US Weekly Claims – & bi-election in UK a further test of Johnson’s authority. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.36%) rallied from below 150.00 on Tuesday to 151.70. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 72.30 OB & still rising. H1 ATR 0.225, Daily 1.20. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Date : 14th January 2022. Market Update – January 14 – USD longs trimmed positions. The market has well priced in elevated inflation and an all but assured March rate liftoff, hence taking in stride a record clip in core PPI at 8.3% y/y and the drop in continuing jobless claims to 1,559k, the lowest since before the pandemic. Markets trimmed long positions and deemed, for now, that several US rate hikes this year are fully priced in. USD (USDIndex 94.73) – found a floor above 94.50. US Yields 10-yr has lifted 2.0 bp to 1.72% overnight, as hawkish Fedspeak continued to fuel tightening speculation. – Fed Brainard acknowledged that she too could vote for a March rate hike. The Bank of Korea added to the hawkish tone by hiking the key rate to 1.25% from 1.00% and signalling that more moves could be on the way. Bank of Japan is deliberating how it can start telegraphing an eventual rate hike. – Yen on bid. China’s trade data showed a marked slowdown in both export and import growth. Equities – tightening speculation has put pressure on stocks. GER30 and UK100 are down -0.4%. USA100 dropped -2.5%, JPN225 corrected -1.3%. UK economy stronger than expected before Omicron. Monthly GDP data for November were a positive surprise, with a rise of 0.9% m/m that compensated somewhat for the disappointing October reading. USOil – at 81.68 after 80.75 bottom, amid concerns on Chinese fuel demand & whether US government will act to cool oil prices. Gold & Silver – best weekly rise since November – remains however below the key $1835 barrier. FX markets – EURUSD at 1.1482, USDJPY down at 113.63, Cable at 1.3725. European Open: The March 10-year Bund future is down -6 ticks, broadly in line with moves in Treasury futures, while both the Schatz and the 30-year futures outperformed. The UK already signalled that virus measures will be relaxed further in coming weeks, which will add to the arguments of the hawkish camp at the BoE. Today –Headlining is the ECB Lagarde speech and US December retail sales report. Biggest FX Mover @ (09:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.40%) breaks below 20-day SMA at 82.60 (50-DMA). Fast MAs aligned lower, with MACD lines negatively configured, RSI at 36 but stochastics pointing higher suggesting correction. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 Date : 17th January 2022. Market Update – January 17 – USD Holds onto gains. Big bank Earnings disappointed on Friday, the USD recovered from 8-week lows and Fedspeakers continued to worry about inflation as hawkish tones increased. Stocks recovered early losses, Yields moved up to close the week as Oil moved up and Gold moved down. China’s PBOC delivered the first rate cut in a while as signs of slow down persist and Covid cases once again spread. USD (USDIndex 95.20) holds on to gains from Friday. Bouncing from 8-week lows under 94.60. US Yields 10-yr moved higher again to close at 1.772%. Equities – USA500 +3.82 (+0.08%) at 4662 as Financials weighed following Earnings from JPM (-6.15%) Blackrock (-2.19%) and WFC (+3.68) Tech & Energies lead recovery into long weekend. USA500 FUTS lower at 4652. USOil – Spiked over $84.00 as markets look beyond Covid spikes with very tight supply. Gold – settled at $1816 from a test of 1830 again. Now at $1822. Bitcoin support once again at $42,000, Friday, back to 42,800 now. FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1465, USDJPY now 114.40 at 115.85, Cable back to 1.33680. Overnight – Chinese GDP and industrial production exceeded expectations, whilst retail sales disappointed. UK house price data from the Nationwide was strong. The Chairman of Credit Suisse has resigned due to Covid breaches. Week Ahead A Bank of Japan meeting which concludes on Tuesday, UK inflation data on Wednesday and Australian jobs figures on Thursday. Earnings from GS, BAC, MS, P&G, Netflix European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -36 ticks, alongside broad losses in US futures, which points to a further rise in yields across Europe. Stock market futures are trading mixed, with DAX and FTSE 100 futures posting gains of 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, while an 0.4% decline in the NASDAQ is leading US futures lower. Central bank outlooks and inflation expectations remain in focus, the Fed is gearing up for a round of central bank hikes this year that will also impact the outlook for BoE and ECB amid hopes that the pandemic phase of Covid-19 will start to fade. Today – Little data from Europe & All US markets closed for MLK Day. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.34%) Rallied from 90.50 lows on Friday to 91.37 (Fridays high) now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & above 0 line. RSI 64 & rising, H1 ATR 0.121 Daily ATR 0.794. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 Date : 18th January 2022. Market Update – January 18 – BOJ Stands Pat. Asian markets weaker as BOJ stays put (-0.1% interest rate) with stimulus package intact, raises inflation target to 1.1% and growth to 3.8% for 2022. Kuroda: “Will ease monetary policy without hesitation as needed, there has been a notable improvement in the economy.” USD firmer, Yields moved up with US 2-yr over key 1.0%, 10-yr over 1.8%. Oil higher – Saudi’s retaliate, attacking Yemen and Gold holds at $1815. USD (USDIndex 95.25) holds on to gains from Friday, pushing to 953.8 earlier. US Yields 10-yr moved higher again and trades at 1.818%. Equities – US closed yesterday. Nikkei -0.27% – USA500 FUTS lower again at 4633. USOil – Spiked over $84.70 as very tight supply, Saudi’s retaliation on Sanaa and NK continued firing of missiles unsettles sentiment. Gold – holds at $1815 from a test of $1823. Bitcoin another down day, tested to $41,600, back to 42,200 now. FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1400, USDJPY now 114.80 tested 115.00 earlier, Cable back to test 200hr MA 1.3620, +20 pips after UK jobs data. Overnight – UK Earnings in line at 4.2%, Unemployment (4.1%) and Claims better than expected. PBOC deputy governor says will keep yuan exchange rate basically stable. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -19 ticks, Treasury futures are underperforming. Stocks across Asia struggled with the renewed rise in yields and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are also down -0.3% and -0.2% respectively. Inflation risks and central bank outlook will be dominating the discussion in coming months. Today – German ZEW, Empire State Manu. Index & Earnings from Goldman Sachs. Day 2 of DAVOS (on-line). Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (again) (+0.34% again) Rallied all day over 91.73 (Thursdays high) and onto test 92.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & above 0 line. RSI 68 rising, H1 ATR 0.131 Daily ATR 0.804. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Date : 19th January 2022. Market Update – January 19 – Stocks tank, Yields higher, Inflation weighs. Stock markets sank (Nasdaq -2.6% as the VIX pushed higher +5.22%). Financials and Pharma companies led the slide, USD firmer supported by high Yields – the main market driver. US 10-yr 1.85%, German 10-yr to May 2019 highs as Inflation in UK & Germany hits 30-year highs. Oil higher again, Gold continues to gyrate. Pressure on UK PM grows. USD (USDIndex 95.65) holds on to gains. US Yields 10-yr moved higher – closed at 1.865% & trades at 1.883%. Equities – USA500 -85 (-1.84%) 4577 (GS -6.97%, BAC -3.44%, FB -4.0%, SONY -7.0%. Nikkei -0.27% – USA500 FUTS lower again at 4539. USOil – Spiked over $87.00 as very tight supply, Saudi’s retaliation on Sanaa and NK continued firing of missiles continues to unsettle sentiment. Gold – holds at $1812 from a test of $1820 & spike to $1806. Bitcoin tested to $42,400, back to 41,200 now. FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1336, USDJPY now 114.40 tested 115.00 yesterday, Cable back to 1.3600, from 1.3570 lows yesterday. Overnight – UK CPI – 2 ticks higher at 5.4% vs 5.2% CORE 3 ticks higher at 4.2%, RPI up to 7.5% from 7.1% & new 30-year highs. German CPI in line at 5.3% and HICP at 5.7%. European Open – The 10-year Bund yield has lifted 2.4 bp to 0.002% in early trade with high readings for German and U.K. December CPI adding to pressure. Global equity markets are struggling with the sharp rise in yields and intensifying tightening expectations, leaving DAX and FTSE 100 futures down -0.8% and -0.6% respectively. The Euro Stoxx 50 has lost -0.7% so far and a -0.8% correction in the NASDAQ is leading US futures lower. Pretty much the same picture as yesterday, with markets at risk of running way with tightening concerns, and central banks increasingly under pressure. Today – Canadian CPI, IEA OMR, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, supply from Germany & the US. Earnings from Bank of America, MS, UnitedHealth. DAVOS continues. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.35%) Rallied from 3-day decline to 0.8455 to 0.8495 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & testing 0 line. RSI 56 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0011 Daily ATR 0.0056. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 Date : 21st January 2022. Market Update – January 21 – Stocks Sink – Netflix & Peloton Crash. Stock markets sank again (Nasdaq -1.3%) Tech companies led the slide, (Peloton -24%, Netflix -18% post results. USD firmed as Yields & Oil dipped, Gold held onto to gains. Markets are nervous and risk aversion has picked up as investors eye shaky earnings, and waning confidence, with mounting tensions over Ukraine adding to geopolitical tensions. US Weekly claims hit a 3-mth high, EZ Inflation was an ATH and North Korea said it may resume testing its nuclear arsenal. Asian markets and AUD & NZD lower (AUDJPY -0.62%) ASX 200 (-1.2%), Nikkei 225 (-1.8%). USD (USDIndex 95.65) ticks higher slips as Yields decline . US Yields 10-yr moved closed at 1.83% & trades at 1.785%. Equities – USA500 -50 (-1.1%) 4482 – USA500 FUTS lower again at 4467. USOil – Fell below $82.00 afrom highs at 87.95 on Wednesday, Inventories increased by 0.5m vs 2.3m drawdown. Gold – held on to gains topped at $1848 and holds $1838 now, holding the key 1830 support. Bitcoin under $40,000 back to test $39,000, FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.1300 – 1.1322, USDJPY now 113.80 & Cable back to 1.3570, the week’s low. Overnight – UK Retail Sales plunged -3.7%, Consumer confidence slipped 4 whole points to -19 and Japanese core inflation was inline at 0.5%. European Open – The 10 US Treasury yield is up from overnight lows, Bunds are also finding buyers in opening trade, and the 10-year continues to shy away from turning positive, as ECB officials continue to push back against speculation of an early rate hike at the end of the year and market sentiment generally turns cautious. DAX and FTSE 100 future are posting losses of -1.4% and -1.1% respectively. Today – EZ Consumer Confidence, BoE’s Mann; ECB’s Lagarde, BoJ’s Kuroda Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.66%) Rallied from 1.6675 yesterday to breach 1.6800 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher. RSI 73 OB but still rising, H1 ATR 0.0026 Daily ATR 0.0100. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 Date : 24th January 2022. Market Update – January 24 – Markets on toes on Fed and Ukraine jitters. It was all about risk aversion and a flight to safety in the markets to end the week. Concerns over Ukraine-Russia tensions added to the bearish backdrop as the hawkish turn the FOMC and other central banks, along with the worries over inflation, as well as earnings as the impacts surging expenses on the bottom line take their toll.Meanwhile, the PBoC is going the other was as it looks to shore up its slumping economy. China’s central bank just cut its 14-day reverse repo rate and added more stimulus after cutting the 7-day rae last Monday, along with the reduction in the 1-year medium term loan rate. This is providing some support to Chinese stocks and that could underpin some follow-through dip buying into Western equity markets Additionally, many of the high flying pandemic companies are crumbling, led by the weakness in Netflix and Peloton. The 10-year Treasury rate is at 1.76%, the German Bund rate at -0.065%, both slightly lower. USD firmed Gold held onto to gains. Preliminary PMI readings for Japan showed struggling services sector, but ongoing improvement in manufacturing, which left the composite in contraction territory for the first time since September 2021. Australia’s composite plunged to 45.3 from 54.9. China’s PBOC provided 14-day funds at a 10 bp lower rate, which was no surprise after last week’s slew of rate cuts as the country battles Covid-19 and troubles in the property sector. USD (USDIndex 95.75) ticks higher . Equities – USA500 dis 4419 – USA500 and USA100 posted their biggest weekly drop since March 2020 last week. USOil – rebounce to $85.00 but holds below it. Gold – held on to gains topped at $1841 and holds at 7-week rally. Bitcoin under $35,000 handle – its lowest since July 2021. FX markets – EURUSD back to test 1.1300 – 1.1326, USDJPY now 113.60 (The Japanese yen tends to benefit from safe haven flows as stocks crumble) & Cable eased to 1.3550, below 20-DMA. European Open – GER40 and UK100 futures are posting slight gains, as are US futures, with tech stocks leading the way. Markets struggled overnight, but while European PMI readings this morning are likely to look similarly weak than data out of Japan and Australia overnight, in the current situation that also backs hopes of a cautious stance at central banks, as the FOMC announcement on Wednesday comes into view. Today – Today’s local calendar focuses on preliminary PMI readings for Eurozone and U.K., which are expected to reflect the impact of virus measures on the services industry, especially in the Eurozone.Today’s schedule includes earnings from IBM, Southern Copper, Halliburton, Brown & Brown, Logitech, and Steel Dynamics. The data slate is light with December Chicago Fed national activity index, along with flash January Markit manufacturing and services PMIs. The Treasury auctions $54 bln of 2-year notes. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.41%) Topped to 1.8927 extending Friday’s gains. Currently settled to 1.8900 barrier. MAs flattened along with RSI, but MACD signal line & histogram hold higher, while Stochastic points lower. H1 ATR 0.0024 Daily ATR 0.0111. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 Date : 25th January 2022. Market update – January 25. A flight out of equities and into the safety of bonds was the opening theme yesterday – Could we see this repeated? US futures are under pressure once again, alongside a broad sell off across Asian equity markets. Tensions over the Ukraine, virus developments in China and the prospect of reduced central bank support all continued to weigh on sentiment overnight. The rise in Omicron cases ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays and of course the Olympic Games is adding to nervousness over slowing growth. Australia’s inflation rate came in higher than expected, which added to growing conviction that the RBA will end its quantitative easing program at the February 1 meeting. Singapore surprised with a move to tighten policy outside of a scheduled review USD (USDIndex 95.90) saw a pullback after breaching 96.11. Treasury rates dove lower with a strongly bid 2-year sale extending the slide. The just auctioned 2-year rate dropped 7 bps to hit 0.970%. Equities – Hang Seng and CEI 200 expected to drop more than -1.8% today. The Nikkei closed with a loss of -1.7%, the ASX plunged -2.5% after the hot inflation report. Yesterday, USA100 crashed -4.9%, with the broader indexes over -3% lower before hitting bottom and paring losses. But a late buy the dip rally saw the USA100 rally 0.63%, with the USA500 and USA30 up 0.29%. USOil – back to $82.00 territory, – recovering some of yesterday’s losses, as growing tension in Eastern Europe and the Middle East fuelled concerns over possible supply disruptions. Lower US oil inventories are also providing support. Gold – held on to gains at $1841 as investors sought safety. Bitcoin steadied to $35,000 handle. FX markets – The Yen was supported as risk aversion picked up and USDJPY dropped to 113.66. EURUSD at 1.1306 & Cable below 1.3500. European Open – European stock futures are signalling a bounce back from yesterday’s sell off, with the GER40 and UK100 currently posting gains of 1.1% and 0.8% respectively. EGB yields are set to rise today, as stock markets bounce back from yesterday’s sell off. The German 10-year Bund yield is up 1.4 bp at -0.097% in early trade, the French 10-year up 1.3 bp, both underperforming versus Treasuries, which have moved higher overnight, as Asian stock markets sold off. Today – The FOMC meeting starts today, with an announcement due tomorrow, ahead of the ECB and BoE meetings in February. Geopolitical risks will remain in focus today, while the data calendar highlights are the German Ifo readings and the UK CBI manufacturing survey. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) Cocoa (-3.22%) Huge dive to 2488 from 2684 highs seen last week, breaking all daily SMAs (20-, 50-, 200-day). Fast MAs aligned lower intraday with all momentum indicators pointing further lower. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 Date : 26th January 2022. Market update – January 26 – Central Banks Eyed. It was a wild Tuesday in the lead up to today’s FOMC decision. Both bonds and stocks closed lower as the Fed is widely expected to outline a rate hike strategy with a 25 bp liftoff in March. Exaggerated fears of a 50 bp move and perhaps a string of 4 to 5 hikes this year have dissipated, though we suspect the markets are still positioned too bearishly. We expect the policy statement and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference to be less hawkish than anticipated, hence setting the markets up for a bit of a relief rally. So far today, Bonds have struggled, stocks hit the skids again in the US session but eased in the Asia session, and FX markets have remained in a narrow range as markets wait for the FOMC and BoC. Australia was on holiday, which made for somewhat lower volumes, but it was mainly the upcoming FOMC announcement that put a lid on markets. Ukraine tensions and speculation over gas supplies to Europe in case of an escalation of tensions with Russia are weighing on sentiment. UK PM Boris Johnson now has to answer the police over “partygate”, with calls for him to resign getting louder. USD (USDIndex 96) continues incline – 3rd day above 20-DMA. The 10-year Treasury rate is up 0.4 bp at 1.773%. The 10-year JGB rate is also slightly higher, but the 2-year paper found buyers as the BoJ summary shows commitment to loose policy. – The bank’s stance focused on providing stimulus to reach the 2% inflation goal. Treasury’s $55 bln 5-year auction was super strong. Equities – The USA100’s -3.18% drop paced the weakness, followed by a -2.8% loss on the USA500 and a -2.3% decline on the USA30. Today, Topix and Nikkei corrected -0.25% and -0.44%, GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.66% and 0.84% respectively, while the Euro Stoxx 50 is 0.7% higher. Earnings: General Electric, beat on earnings, but missed on revenue, which weighed heavily while American Express provided upside support on solid earnings led by record credit card spending. Microsoft beats expectations with $18.8bn profit. Central banks clearly are getting nervous about the risk of second round effects, but the IMF’s growth downgrades yesterday also highlighted the risks from slowing momentum in China and virus developments. USOil – up to $84.60 – API data shows US crude stocks fall,Biden threatens sanctions on Putin over any invasion, markets await Fed update, US approves oil exchange from strategic reserve. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement launched a missile attack on a United Arab Emirates base hosting the US military. Gold – down to $1844 from $1854. Bitcoin at $37,000 handle. FX markets – USDJPY steady at 113.95. EURUSD at 1.1295 & Cable at 1.3500. European Open – Bund futures are under pressure, while US futures are moving higher, while in cash markets, the German 10-year Bund yield has lifted 0.4 bp to -0.08%. BTPs are supported though and spreads are coming in. Today – Along with today’s BoC and FOMC result, the earnings calendar is heavy. Today’s slate features several biggies, including Tesla, Abbott Labs, Intel, AT&T, Boeing, Anthem, ServiceNow, ADP, Lam Research, Crown Castle, Norfolk Southern, Freeport-McMoran, Progressive, Kimberly-Clark, Amphenol, Ameriprise, Corning, Nasdaq, Hess, Teradyne, Seagate, United Rentals, Raymond James, and Teledyne. Data includes the December advance goods trade report Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADCHF – Breaks 0.7300 (R1) from 0.7195 lows on Monday. Fast MAs aligned lower intraday with all momentum indicators pointing further higher. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Date : 3rd February 2022. Market Update – February 3 – Stocks gain, FX awaits BoE & ECB. Stock markets closed higher after a weak start (S&P500 +0.94%) Mixed PMI data, a huge miss (-301k) for ADP & record CPI (5.1%) in Europe hung on sentiment. Asia markets struggled too. Weak earnings from Meta, Spotify and a -24% decline for PayPal. USD & Yields consolidate, Oil holds on to gains & Gold holds over $1800. Biden ordered 3000 troops to Eastern Europe. China, Hong Kong and other markets remained closed for the Lunar (Tiger) New Year holidays. USD (USDIndex 96.10) up from 95.77 low, 96.00 remains a key level US Yields 10-yr closed at 1.766 & trades at 1.766%. Equities – USA500 +43 (+0.94%) 4589 – (PYPL -24.59%, GOOG +7.45%) USA500 FUTS slip 4538. META lost +20% after hours, USOil – Spiked over $88.00 on OPEC+ maintaining 400k/day output. Now $86.32 after inventory drawdown Gold – topped at $1810 back to $1802 now. Bitcoin remains under $40,000 back to test $37,000 FX markets – EURUSD up to 1.1295 USDJPY up to 114.60 & Cable to 1.3550 Overnight – Japan Services PMI missed, Large rise in AUD Imports, & Building Approvals. European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 6 ticks at 168.72, slightly outperforming versus Treasury futures, as risk aversion picks up again amid disappointing reports from tech bellwethers that weighed on stock market sentiment. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.4% and -0.3% and a -2.3% sell off in the NASDAQ is leading US futures lower. European markets closed mixed though yesterday, after another record setting inflation report for the Eurozone put pressure on the ECB ahead of today’s announcement. Final services PMIs for the Eurozone and the UK are likely to highlight that virus developments continued to weigh on the sector at the start of the year, but officials are increasingly optimistic that economies will bounce back quickly from the most recent virus variant. Against that background, the spike in inflation is starting to look worrying, especially as labour markets continue to tighten. The BoE is widely expected to deliver another rate hike today, while the ECB could well sound more hawkish than some expect. Today – EZ, UK & US Services PMI, Weekly Initial Claims, Factory Orders & ISM Services PMI, BoE & ECB Earnings Amazon, Eli Lilly, Biogen, ConocoPhillips, Penn, BT, Shell, Nokia, ING, Infineon. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.30%) Rallied from key 0.8380 to 0.8415 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising but under 0 line, RSI 58 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0012 Daily ATR 0.0059. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 4, 2022 Author Share Posted February 4, 2022 Date : 4th February 2022. Market Update – February 4 – Stocks & USD Tank, BoE & ECB Surprise. Stock markets crushed into close; NASDAQ led the fall (-3.74%) after abysmal META (-26.39%) earnings. More mixed PMI data, and Hawkish surprises from BoE (25bps rise but more to come as 4 of 9 members wanted 50bps) & ECB (dovish statement but Hawkish Lagarde press conference – end of stimulus & rate hikes as early as September?). Asia markets higher following blockbuster AMZN (+15% after hours) earnings. USD tanked & Yields & Oil rallied & Gold holds over $1800. Biden: Russia plotting fake invasion pretext, US kills head of ISIS. Johnson: 4 top aids all resign in one day. Winter Olympics kick off. Putin expected to meet Xi. China, Hong Kong and other markets remained closed for the Lunar (Tiger) New Year holidays. USD (USDIndex 95.25) worst day in a long time – opened the week at 97.25, 96.00 now major resistance & 95.00 support. US Yields 10-yr closed at 1.827 & trades at 1.81%. Equities – USA500 -111 (-2.44%) 4477 – (FB -26.39%, AMZN -7%, but +15% after hours) USA500 FUTS recovered to 4518. SNAP (-23% on the day & then +59% after hours). USOil – Spiked over $89.00 and trades at $88.84 now. Gold – fell to $1788 back to $1807 now. Bitcoin remains under $40,000 back to test $37,800 FX markets – EURUSD up to 1.1465 USDJPY up to 115.00 & Cable to 1.3580 Overnight – RBA Mins. repeats ‘prepared to be patient’ mantra, German Industrial Orders, much stronger than anticipated +2.8%. European Open – Treasuries have recovered earlier losses, but Bunds and other Eurozone bond markets remain under pressure as stronger than expected German orders at the start of the session add to the arguments for a change of course in March, which judging by Lagarde’s comments clearly is on the agenda next month, when the updated set of staff projections are also available. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of 0.6% and 0.8% respectively, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.7%. A 2.2% rise in the NASDAQ meanwhile is leading US futures higher. Today – EZ/UK Construction PMI, EZ Retail Sales, US & Canadian Labour Market Reports. Earnings Carlsberg, Sanofi, Bristol-Myers, and AON. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.59%) Rallied from key 1.5800 Wednesday to over 1.6100 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram levelling off but well over 0 line, RSI 80 & OB, H1 ATR 0.0024 Daily ATR 0.0120. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 7, 2022 Author Share Posted February 7, 2022 Date : 7th February 2022. Market Update – February 7 – “Good news is good news” eventually. A shockingly strong nonfarm payroll report knocked Treasuries for a loop. Global markets have been left reeling from the FOMC’s pivot, the BoE’s second rate hike and the aggressive voting pattern, as well as the hawkish shift from ECB Lagarde’s press conference. Wall Street turned mostly higher in afternoon trade. The market struggled early on following the stronger jobs report, which weighed on sentiment, in a case of good news is bad news for stocks (Fed rate hikes). Treasury yields jumped on the data as the headlines more than surprised even the strongest forecast, and especially the whisper number which hinted at a -400k decline in jobs due to Omicron. The 0.7% surge in earnings to $31.63 m/m, a new all-time high, and a 5.7% y/y clip, the fastest since March 2020, added to Fed worries and increased the risk for a 50 bp rate liftoff in March and a faster string of hikes this year. Rates continued to cheapen through the afternoon as sell stops were tripped. Bearish options plays added to the selling, as did the advent of the $110 bln in auctions next week. China returns from a week-long Lunar New Year break. USD (USDIndex- 95.50) US Yields –The rally on Wall Street further pressured Treasuries, but with no one willing to step in front of this bear train, yields continued to climb and ended the week sharply higher. Now, the 2-year has cheapened almost 13 bps to 1.326%, while the 3-year was over 12 bps higher at 1.585%. The 10- and 30-year yield rose 10 bps and 8 bps respectively to 1.935% and 2.235%. Asian stock markets were under pressure overnight, with Japan’s tech sector in particular struggling. China bourses rallied in catch up trade, despite a drop in the Caixin General Services PMI to a 5-month low of 51.4, from 53.1 in December. Australia retail sales also dropped for the first time in four months. Equities– JPN225 is down -0.7%. The USA100 advanced 1.58%, with the USA50052% firmer, while the USA30 slid to a -0.06% loss. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.8% and 0.4% respectively. German industrial production contracted -0.3% m/m in December, and was down -4.1% y/y in December. Production lifted 3.0% in 2021 compared to 2020, but was still down -5.5% compared to the pre-pandemic year of 2019. Clearly virus developments and supply chain disruptions continued to weigh on overall output, in particular in Germany’s important car industry. UK– Complicating the picture is a political crisis. Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces anger over a series of missteps, not least the alcohol-fuelled parties held at Downing Street during coronavirus lockdowns. The coming days could bring more clarity on his future. USOil– Spiked to $92.00 – 7-year highs – amid fear of supply disruptions from a multitude of geopolitical flare-ups, above all, a possible Russia-Ukraine conflict. Europe is scrambling to find alternatives to Russian gas, while US winter storms at a time of general underproduction are an added problem. Gold– back above 1800 to $1812. Bitcoin up to $42,708. FX markets– EUR is broadly lower this morning, but EURUSD is up to 1.1426, USDJPY up to 115.27 & Cable to 1.3538. European Open – EGBs have found buyers in early trade, with a weaker than expected German production number at the start of the session adding some support. The short end continues to underperform as investors adjust their central bank outlooks, with those caught wrong-footed by Lagarde last week now risking overcorrecting expectations, and it may take some time before there is a new equilibrium. We still think Q4 is the most likely timing for a first move – in December, if inflation pressures calm somewhat, or October, if Covid-19 restrictions fade faster than anticipated and the tensions with Russia over Ukraine ease quickly. Today – Company reports and central bank outlooks remain in focus at the start of the week, but for now confidence seems to be holding up. Today’s slate has just US December consumer credit. Earnings include Amgen, Southern Copper, Simon Property, Tyson Foods, ON Semi, Zimmer Biomet, Principal Financial, Take-Two Interactive, Loews Corp., Hasbro, and CNA Financial. There is Fedspeak later in the week with Bowman, Mester, and Barkin. Data includes trade, the NFIB small business survey, claims, and consumer sentiment. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.44%) Dip to 1.4525 before rebounding again in EU open at 1.4568. Fast MAs turned higher again but MACD and RSI remain close to zero. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 8, 2022 Author Share Posted February 8, 2022 Date : 8th February 2022. Market Update – February 8 – USD rebounds ahead of US inflation. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Treasury yields were mixed inside a narrow range as the market consolidated, coming to grips with the hawkish stance from the FOMC and other core central banks, while they found some support from EGBs. ECB’s Lagarde stressed rate hikes will not begin until after asset purchases are ended. Trading was also slowed as the CPI report looms Thursday. The front end outperformed slightly as shorts covered, paring some of the selling from Friday. Wall Street was mixed and rather directionless, despite earnings. After finding a small bid into the afternoon, the indexes slumped into the close. Oil drops on progress in US-Iran talks. USD (USDIndex 95.61) steady. US Yields 2-year rate slid 2 bps to 1.288% after having surged to test 1.32% on Friday. However, the 10-year was fractionally underwater and rose to 1.945%, a new high since late 2019. Equities – USA500 ( -0.37%) 4487, USA100 (-0.58% )recovered to 14605. (Meta shares fell more than 5%, Peloton jumped over 20% on media reports of interest from potential buyers including Amazon, Tyson Foods firmed on upbeat quarterly results, Nvidia rose 1.7% ,Alibaba fell about 6% after it registered an additional 1 billion American depositary shares.) JPN225 and ASX are up 1.1% and 0.1%. GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.1% and 0.2%. USOil – flattened around $90.00 amid concerns over tight supply. Gold – jumped to $1823 above 20-day SMA. Gold rose 1.2% last week and posted its strongest weekly gain since November. Yields have been ebbing from overnight highs, while the USD is a little weaker, to provide some support to gold. Geopolitical risks are also underpinning. Bitcoin extended to $45,485. – Bitcoin and the Australian Dollar had posted gains as equity markets rallied in Europe. FX markets – EURUSD up to 1.1405, USDJPY up to 115.48 & Cable to 1.3520 Overnight – ASX outperforming, helped by a jump in iron ore prices, which boosted miners. Talk of more companies being added to the list of companies that may need extra permits to buy from US entities weighed on the Hang Seng in particular and the index is currently down -0.99%. WTO lets China impose $645 million tariffs on US. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down 8 ticks, slightly outperforming versus Treasury futures, as yields continue to rise in cash markets. Lagarde failed to push back against speculation of an early end to net asset purchases and swift start to rate hikes yesterday and Eurozone peripherals in particular are likely to continue to struggle. Today – Today’s calendar is thin and should have no impact on expectations. The December trade report is due. The earnings calendar features reports from Pfizer, BP, S&P, Fiserv, Thomson Reuters, Coinbase, Centene, KKR, Chipotle, DuPont, Sysco, Yum! Brands, Transdigm, Cenovus Energy, Warner Music, FleetCor, Incyte, and FMC. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NDZJPY (+0.46%) Rallied to 76.75 retesting the 20 DMA for a 4th day. MAs aligned however started turning lower, MACD signal line & histogram levelling off but well over 0 line, RSI at 57 in a pullback. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 Date : 9th February 2022. Market Update – February 9 – Stocks Boosts The Risk Taking Mood. The markets continue to gyrate wildly amid numerous crosscurrents. Inflation jitters, central bank tightening worries, supply, weakness in EGBs, and strength in risk appetite all weighed heavily on Treasuries. On other occasions, dip buying and geopolitical risks have supported bonds. Meanwhile, Wall Street rallied Tuesday on improving expectations on growth as covid restrictions are eased. Data included marginal widening in the December trade deficit, and declines in both the NFIB small business optimism and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism indexes. USD (USDIndex 95.60) steady in a 3-day pattern. US Yields 10-year Treasury yield is down -2.2 bp, JGB rates have dropped back -0.4 bp. – Despite that, the Treasury’s $50 bln 3-year auction was surprisingly well received and stronger than expected, garnering record indirect demand. Equities – staged a broad rally with tech stocks in Hong Kong rebounding after yesterday’s sell off. Reports of a wave of interventions by state backed funds helped Chinese markets. Hang Seng and CSI 300 rallied 1.97% and 1.07%. The JPN lifted 1.08% and the ASX 1.14%. USA30 & USA100 (+1%) recovered to 35700 and 14828 and USA500 was 0.84% in the green. GER40 and UK100 futures are posting gains of 0.8%. Apple & Microsoft closed higher. USOil – extends declines to $87.40. Gold – at 1825 after reaching $1829 – Haven buying on geopolitical risks, which has supported on and off, provided little offset. Bitcoin settled to mid $43,000. FX markets – EURUSD narrowing to 1.1400, USDJPY up to 115.45 & Cable to 1.3537. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 32 ticks, outperforming versus US futures, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped back -2.2 bp. Bonds have found a footing for now and EGB yields are set to come off yesterday’s highs, but sentiment is likely to remain fickle ahead of US inflation data. In the Eurozone, markets will likely continue to test the ECB’s resolve, with the recent widening of spreads also reflecting speculation that the APP program could end early to pave the way for a rate hike in the third rather than the fourth quarter. Germany’s trade surplus narrowed to just EUR 6.8 bln in December in seasonally adjusted terms, as a 4.7% m/m jump in nominal imports far outweighed the 0.9% m/m rise in exports. Virus developments will have weighed on production and exports at the end of the year, while the spike in energy and other commodity prices pushed up the nominal import bill. So not a total surprise with the underlying export trend still robust, despite the drop in exports to the UK last year – thanks to Brexit. Today – Data is thin with just December wholesale data, but there is a heavy earnings slate today to provide a distraction. The slate includes Toyota, Walt Disney, CVS Health, GlaxoSmithKline, Equinor, CME Group, Uber, Honda, Manulife, Motorola, Twilio, IFF, Sun Life, Equifax, CDW, Seagen, Fox, Grab, MGM Resorts, and Arch Capital. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USOIL (-0.56%) Retests 87.40 extending the decline from 91.70. Fast MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram extend southward s below 0 and RSI and Stochastic are at OS barrier. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 Date : 10th February 2022. Market Update – February 10 – Its Inflation day. The CPI report is anxiously awaited and the markets are priced for a bearish outcome. Indeed, stocks and bonds have sold off so hard this month that risk is for dip buying after the result. Wall Street posted solid gains again Wednesday as investor sentiment has improved with good earnings reports and expectations for some normalcy as covid mandates are being unwound. Treasuries have rallied as jitters regarding an overly hawkish FOMC have eased. Recent Fedspeak downplaying the likelihood of aggressive Fed action helped soothe investor jitters. USD (USDIndex 95.50). US Yields richened, led by the long end, especially after a stellar 10-year auction. The yield tested 1.93%. The 2-year pared its early rally and was unchanged at 1.344% into the close after sliding to 1.313%. Megacap growth stocks powered up due to a pause in rising interest rates while upbeat earnings reports also encouraged investors to buy. Equities – USA100 paced the gains on Wall Street, with a 2.08% surge, with the USA500 up 1.45% as all 11 sectors were in the green. The USA30 was up 0.861%. Reuters: Asian equities in January received the biggest upgrade in their forward 12-month earnings estimates in five months, boosted by higher commodity prices and demand for technology exports in the region. – 55% of the region’s large- and mid-cap Asian companies have beaten the average earnings forecasts by analysts, while 58.1% of the companies topped the estimates in the third quarter. USOil – steady at $88.70. Gold – at $1835.70 – soft dollar and lower bond yields. Bitcoin settled to$43,000 -44,000 area. FX markets – EURUSD narrowing to 1.1420, USDJPY spiked to 115.69 & Cable up to 1.3539 from 1.3525. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -4 ticks at 165.82, while in cash markets Treasuries have remained supported overnight, although yields have moved up from session lows going into the European morning. Asian stocks have traded narrowly mixed. That also holds for Europe, where yields have jumped sharply since the central bank meetings last week, forcing central bankers to warn against overcorrections and big policy moves, A number of speakers from both BoE and ECB are scheduled to speak today. Today – As noted, the January CPI features today. Initial jobless claims are also due today. The January Treasury budget is also on tap. The Treasury auctions $23 bln of 30-year bonds, and announces 20-year bonds and 30-year TIPS. For Fedspeak, Barkin is on deck. Today’s earnings calendar features reports from Coca Cola, Pepsico, Astrazeneca, Philip Morris, Duke Energy, Moody’s, Global Payments, DexCom, Republic Services, TELUS, Twitter, VeriSign, PG&E, Martin Marietta, Kellogg, SS&C Technologies, Zillow, and Aegon. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.28%) The Aussie and Kiwi dollars were trading near multi-week highs as investors turned more bullish on risk assets such as equities. Fast MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram extend northwards and RSI is retesting 70 areas. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 11, 2022 Author Share Posted February 11, 2022 Date : 11th February 2022. Market Update – February 11 – USD on bid as equities crushed. LONDON The markets were crushed, and especially bonds, as a hotter than expected CPI and hawkish comments from Bullard weighed heavily on the markets. The 7.5% y/y pace of CPI, a 40-year high, boosted concerns that the FOMC will have to take a more aggressive stance on rate hikes and tightening down the road. But the nail in the coffin were comments from the Fed hawk Bullard who said he now advocated for a half point rate increase in March and 100 bps of tightening over the first half of the year. The UK economy grew by 7.5% last year despite Omicron causing slowdown. Treasury yields soared with the 10-year cheapening through the 2.0% level for the first time since July 31, 2019. Wall Street was hammered too and the major indexes plunged on the day. USD (USDIndex rallied to 96.00). US Yields sharply higher, spiked further, leaving the 2-year rate up 25 bps to 1.579% – biggest single daily move since June 2009 and the great financial crash. The 10-year was up 10 bps at 2.029%, closing with a 2% handle for the first time since July 31, 2019. Equities were led by the -2.10% drop in the USA100, while the USA500 was -1.81% lower, with the USA30 down -1.47%. Tech stocks have been hit by the prospect of accelerated Fed hikes and GER30 and UK100 are currently down -1.3% and -1.0%. Earnings: Affirm stock dropped 21%. Twitter unchanged, as Twitter’s mixed fourth quarter shows its challenges ahead, PepsiCo down by 2.1%, beat earnings but warns on costs while full-year outlook fell short. Disney 3.50% up, shows rebound in Disney+ & Parks businesses. USOil – at $88.00 following a spike at 90.60. Gold – down to $1820.90. Bitcoin settled to $43,000 – 44,000 area. FX markets – USD on bid as yields spiked and USDJPY jumped to 116.32, although the Yen strengthened against most other currencies as risk appetite waned. AUD and NZD drifted. EURUSD declined to 1.1370 & Cable down to 1.3512. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -23 ticks, but the 30-year future has rallied and US futures have found a footing. So there are some signs of stabilisation at least at the long end. EGBs sold off yesterday in the wake of the higher than expected inflation print, and while the UK curve shifted higher across the board, thanks to Lane’s dovish comments on the policy outlook, the short end outperformed in the Eurozone and the curve steepened as the long end sold off, with Italian BTPs once again hit most. Today – Today’s calendar is light, with just the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index due. Today’s earnings calendar features reports from Enbridge, Dominion Energy, Magna International, and Fortis. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.58%) – Dipped to 0.7110 on USD strength. Fast MAs currently flat, as MACD signal line & histogram extend southwards and RSI at 36, indicating near term consolidation and overall pressure. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 Date : 14th February 2022. Market Update – February 14 – Geopolitical tensions top of the agenda. Stock markets crushed into close Friday (NASDAQ -2.78%), Asia lower too (Nikkei -2.2%) and European FUTS down -1.92%. Oil at new 7-yr high, Yields & Gold cool a tad, USD & JPY bid, NZD clobbered. Key FED hawk Bullard called for 1% hike over next 3 meetings, 72% chance of 50bps in March on Friday cooled to 38% today. Daly – danger of moving too fast. Ukraine asks for meeting with Russia within 48hrs, Biden: Russia possible fake invasion pretext as early as Tuesday/Wednesday, most foreign nationals advised to leave, – a possibly pivotal week ahead. Economic Week Ahead – Closed FED meet today – possible move on discount rate, (the rate the FED lends to banks) but not the main Fed Funds rate (the rate banks lend to each other). Top of the week – FED Minutes (Wednesday) supported by more global inflation and Retail Sales data. USD (USDIndex 96.05) stronger USD weaker EUR on unrest on its border and possible energy shortages. US Yields 10-yr closed Friday at 1.955 down from over 2.0%, trades at 1.94%. Equities – USA500 -85pts (-1.9%) 4418 -(TSLA -4.93%, APPL -2%, GOOG -3.23%, XOM+2.52%. US500 FUTs now 4416 USOil – Futures spiked over 3.6% to $93.10 and trades at $92.40 now. Gold – Futures spiked 1.97% to $1862 back to $1854 now. Bitcoin remains in the $45,000 to $42,000 range. FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1345 USDJPY down to 115.35 & Cable to 1.3535. Overnight – NZD inflation much firmer than expected (+2.7% vs 0.6%), Business outlook weaker, CHF PPI 3 x higher than expected. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future has rallied 99 ticks, with yields set to slide at the open as European bourses prepare for a decisive week over the Ukraine conflict with Russia. Treasuries are underperforming and the US 10-year rate has already backed up 2.1 bp this morning, suggesting that the likely rally in bonds may not last too long. The same delayed reaction is likely in stocks. ECB head Lagarde is set to speak in the afternoon and will likely to continue to try and balance the need to acknowledge inflation risks, with a cautious tone, designed to keep markets from running away with the tightening story. Today – Fed Closed Board Meeting, Fed’s Bullard, ECB’s Lagarde, German-Ukrainian meeting. Earnings Michelin, AvisBudget Group Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.45%) Volatility continues from over 1.7200 last week to 1.7020 Friday to 1.7100 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram at 0 line, RSI 49.50, H1 ATR 0.0027 Daily ATR 0.0130. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 Date : 15th February 2022. Market Update – February 15 – Markets Await the Diplomats. Stock markets ended flat into close, with Ukraine jitters easing a tad. USD & JPY remained bid, Gold has hit an 8-month high and Oil holds at $93.00. 2yr-10yr Yields at their narrowest since Feb 2019 but have cooled overnight. No leaks from closed door FED meeting, Bullard reemphasized his 100bps by July. Asia stocks lower too. Ukraine had no response from Russia although Lavrov & Putin agreed to more diplomacy with the West. Scholz in Moscow today. UK Foreign Sec, Truss “Invasion highly likely but not inevitable”. Iron Ore futures slumped over 10% amid the continued crackdown on prices by China hitting AUD. USD (USDIndex 96.15) stronger USD weaker EUR on unrest on its border and possible energy shortages. US Yields 10-yr closed Friday at 1.996 cooled to 1.97%, 2-yrs remain elevated. Equities – USA500 -16pts (-0.39%) 4401 -(TSLA +1.83%) Musk gave $5.7bln shares to a charity in Nov. US500 FUTS now 4396. USOil – Futures spiked to $93.80, trades at $92.70 now. Gold – Rallied (8-mth highs) to $1879 back to $1878 now. Bitcoin remains in the $45,000 to $42,000 range. FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1324 USDJPY down to 115.29 & Cable to 1.3540. Overnight – AUD RBA Mins, no surprises, analysts bring forward rate hikes to possibly August form year end. JPY GDP missed (1.3% vs 1.5% & previous quarter revised lower to -0.9%), GBP Earnings beat at 4.3% vs 3.8%, but inflation impacted real wages -0.8%. Tightening labour market too. – Unemployment steady at 4.1%. European Open – The 10-year Bund future is up 68 ticks, outperforming versus Treasury futures, which are also slightly higher though. Markets are now increasingly worried that the Fed will act too aggressively on rates and stifle the recovery in the process. ECB’s Lagarde yesterday was eager to keep rate hike speculation at bay and even if the ECB pivots, a rate hike before the last quarter of the year, doesn’t really seem to be on the cards. Ukraine jitters have eased somewhat, but continue to cloud over sentiment and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.3% and -0.2% respectively. Today – EZ GDP, German ZEW, US Empire State Manu. PPI Final Demand, German-Russian meeting, Earnings Glencore, Restaurant Brands, ViacomCBS. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.36%) From 84.00 highs on Thursday to 81.50 yesterday & back to 82.00 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram remains below 0 line, RSI 43.50, H1 ATR 0.185 Daily ATR 0.878. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 Date : 16th February 2022. Market Update – February 16 – Back from the brink? Stock markets rallied into close (2.5%-1.5%), with news of withdrawal of some Russian troops from close to the Ukrainian border. USD & JPY cool, Gold cooled too from 8-month highs and Oil dipped to $90.00. 2yr-10yr Yields widened but both remain elevated as it becomes clear that the situation in the Ukraine is far from resolved. Asian markets rallied (Nikkei +2.2%) but have cooled into close. Biden – “Human cost of Russia attack would be immense”. USD (USDIndex 95.85) cools from Monday high at 96.40. US Yields 10-yr closed back over 2.00% at 2.045 trades at 1.997%, 2-yrs remain elevated. Equities – USA500 +69 pts (+1.58%) 4471 -(NVDA +9.18%, ABNB+6.14%, TSLA +5.33%) US500 FUTS cooler now at 4457. USOil – Futures dipped to $89.00, trades at $90.70 now. Gold – Fell from (8-mth highs) at $1879 back to $1845 and $1855 now. Bitcoin remains in the $45,000 to $42,000 range. FX markets – EURUSD up to 1.1375 USDJPY up to 115.64 & Cable to 1.3555. Overnight – CNY Inflation slips, CPI down to 0.9% (expectations were 1.0%) from 1.5% and PPI down from record 10.3% to 9.1% (9.5% expected). UK Inflation hotter than expected CPI 5.5% vs 5.4%, CORE at 4.4% vs 4.3% – it’s only a tick but its above expectations, details may show some better news, but Oil & Petrol prices still rising and strong wage inflation yesterday too. BoE still see inflation topping in April, but will add pressure for BoE to act again. – Old fashioned RPI now at 7.8% vs 7.4% too. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 17 ticks, outperforming versus US futures, as the selloff in bonds is coming to an end. DAX and FTSE 100 are still posting gains of 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. Today – CAD CPI; EZ Industrial Production, US Retail Sales, FOMC Minutes, Earnings Heineken, Carrefour; Barrick Gold, Garmin, Shopify, NVIDIA. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.33%) The key Risk sensitive pair recovers from 81.50 lows Monday back to 83.00 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram significantly above 0 line, RSI 66.25 & rising, H1 ATR 0.115 Daily ATR 0.818. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 Date : 17th February 2022. Market Update – February 17 – Risks raised – Russia reports being fired on. US Stock markets flat into close (US500 +3 pts) after a weak day, no surprises in FED minutes (Jan 25/26) no talk of 50bps rate rises but a lot has happened in 3 weeks. USD & JPY bid on more jitters regarding Ukraine. Gold rallied back to $1875, Oil – very volatile after inventories, contract expiry & news from Iran. Yields widened again but remain elevated. Asian markets also slipped Nikkei (-0.83%) but have cooled into close. US & UK – “Russian troop withdrawal claims “false”. Ukraine denies any missiles from Donbass were fired. USD (USDIndex 95.85) cools from spike to 96.00 earlier. US Yields 10-yr closed 2.045 trades at down now 1.998%, 2-yrs remain elevated. Equities – USA500 +3.94 pts (+1.58%) 4475 -(NVDA beat,) FB -2.02% US500 FUTS cooler now at 4455. USOil – Topped at $93.00, after inventories, collapsed to $88.00 after contract expiry and positive nuclear deal headlines from both the US and Iran. Trades at $90.80 now. Gold – Rallied $1850 support to $1875 now. Bitcoin remains in the $45,000 to $42,000 range. FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1364 USDJPY down to 115.25 & Cable to 1.3585, from a test of 1.3600 after hot inflation yesterday. Overnight – JPY machinery orders much better than expected, Trade balance slipped significantly. AUD Job creation better than expected and Unemployment steady at European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 32 ticks, U.S. futures are also moving higher. Investors are keeping a weary eye on central banks, which are trapped between fears of out of control inflation and concern that hasty and aggressive central bank action could hit the recovery. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.75 and -0.4% respectively. Today – US Initial Claims, CBRT Policy Announcement, ECB’s Lane, Schnabel, de Cos, Fed’s Bullard & Mester Earnings Standard Chartered (beat); Airbus (beat), Orange, Commerzbank, Walmart Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.43%) Rallied from lows of 0.8400 yesterday to 0.8510 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram significantly above 0 line, RSI 68.25 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0015 Daily ATR 0.0060. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 18, 2022 Author Share Posted February 18, 2022 Date : 18th February 2022. Market Update – February 18 – Ukraine worries front & centre. US Stock markets crashed into close (US30 -622pts) after a weak day. US data biased lower (Philly Fed 16.0 vs 23.2, Initial Claims 248K vs 217k & Housing data mixed.) USD cools on its safe-haven bid. Gold rallied to test $1900, Oil remained under $90.00, Yields widened again but remain elevated. Asian markets also slipped (Nikkei -0.43%, ASX worst performer -1.0%.) Claims & counterclaims yesterday over who fired on who, Russia expelled a US diplomat and today there are reports of 30 more troop and tank withdrawals; also “provided there is no further Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Blinken & Lavrov will meet late next week. USD (USDIndex 95.75) consolidating in range; Wednesday’s & last Friday’s low 95.65. US Yields 10-yr cooled into closed 1.97% and trades lower today, 2-yr remains elevated. Equities – USA500 -95 pts (-2.12%) 4380 – (NVDA -7.56%, FB -4.02% TSLA -5.0%, WMT + 4.01% (Big Earnings beat & Divi increase)- US500 FUTS recover to 4396, currently. USOil – Topped at $91.00, back to under $90.00 now and trades at $89.20 now. Wednesdays & last Friday’s low 88.00. Gold – Rallied through psychological $1900 earlier to test 2021 highs, now back to $1892 Bitcoin broke out of the $42k-45K range and trades down to test $40K. FX markets – EURUSD pivoting around 1.1365, USDJPY broke below 115.00 to new 10-day low at 114.78 back to 115.10 now. Cable breaches 1.3600 and trades at 1.3625. Overnight – JPY hurt by weaker CPI data (0.2% vs 0.3% & 0.5% previously). Fed hawk Mester says rates should rise more quickly and the balance sheet needs to be reduced more swiftly than it did post the financial crash. Nothing new but more hawkish overtones and pressure to act. UK Retail Sales stronger than anticipated, 1.9% vs 1.1% but December numbers were revised down to -4.0% from -3.7%. Poor christmas for UK retailers. French CPI in-line and unchanged at 0.3%. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -13 ticks, US futures are also lower, but outperforming, with reports of a planned US-Russia meeting helping to boost confidence and boosting stock market sentiment. Safe haven demand is ebbing and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.3%, while a 0.7% rise in the NASDAQ is leading US futures higher. Not that Ukraine jitters are resolved and markets will keep a weary eye on developments. For now though they seem willing to buy into the headlines, which will likely see yields nudging higher early in the session. EGBs have staged a remarkable rally this week, as officials pledged caution and gradualism as they prepare to remove stimulus. Today – US Existing Home Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence, Fed’s Williams, Brainard, Evans; ECB’s Elderson, Panetta. Earnings NatWest; Allianz, EDF, Deere. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.58%) Rallied from lows of 75.86 on Monday to 0.77.35 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram significantly above 0 line, RSI 63.25 & rising, Stochs OB zone H1 ATR 0.123 Daily ATR 0.755. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 21, 2022 Author Share Posted February 21, 2022 Date : 21st February 2022. UK: Data adding to arguments for swift action. The markets are closed today for Presidents’ Day. Canada is also closed. Bonds held a haven bid Friday as the threat of a war in the Ukraine intensified. Bond yields have moved higher on strong data and headlines of a possible Biden-Putin summit, but doubts have already started to emerge, leaving 10-year rates off earlier highs and GER30 and UK100 up 0.3% and down -0.1% respectively. The 10-year Bund yield is up 1.9 bp at 0.21%, the Gilt rate up 1.7 bp at 1.39%. PMI reports for the Eurozone and the UK highlighted a strong and swift rebound from Omicron, but also rising price pressures and in the UK wage increases and staff shortages. UK Composite Output PMI at 8-months high in February. The overall reading rose to 60.2 from 54.2 in January, thanks to a huge improvement in services sector activity. The services PMI came in at 60.8, up from 54.1 in the previous month, but while the manufacturing output index jumped to a 7 month high of 56.7, the manufacturing PMI held steady at 57.3 Coupled with German PPI inflation rising to a whopping 25%, the data added to arguments for swift action from both the BoE and the ECB. There were source stories last week effectively confirming that the ECB is likely to end net asset purchases in September and pave the way for a rate hike in the last quarter of the year. At the BoE there were already a number of people arguing in favour of a 50 bp move at the last meeting, and the data clearly suggests that additional steps will be necessary to keep inflation from taking to firm a hold. That UK inflation failed to drop back as expected at the start of the year and the squeeze in the cost of living is increasingly getting popular attention. The RPI that officials wanted to drop altogether is back in focus and hit a whopping 7.8% in January. Coupled with tax hikes, the pressure on households is increasing, especially as there is little consumers can do in the middle of the winter to escape the jump in energy costs. Against the background of a tightening labour market, pressure on the BoE is building, although the top brass at the central bank is likely to continue to argue in favour of gradual moves. The stats office’s preferred target is the CPIH, which stood at 4.9% y/y in January, up from 4.8% in the previous month. The measures dominate the official press release, but remains little used in real life. The narrower CPI hit a 30 year high of 5.5% at the start of the year, the core reading lifted to 4.4% from 4.2% and the Retail Price Index (RPI) which was the main and indeed only measure until 2011, jumped to 7.8%. Energy prices remain the main driving factor and with the government set to lift the price cap on energy in April, the chances are that more is to come, with even the BoE suggesting that CPI could hit 7% in April. http://www.actioneconomics.com/upload/Eurozone-Econ/UK-Overview28_400x250.gif For consumers the multitude of inflation measures is confusing and the older RPI remains firmly lodged in the minds of many. Indeed, union negotiators continue to consider it the best available measure of inflation. That means the 7.8% measure, rather than the much lower CPIH will be the focus in official wage negotiations. Unions may no longer be as powerful as they once were, but given that across the UK the labour market looks increasingly tight with many companies struggling to find skilled staff, they will certainly be in a good negotiating position this year. Reports suggest that pay bargaining across major private and public sector employers was relatively low through much of last year, likely also owing to the crisis situation. With the recovery expected to continue this year and unions focusing on the much higher RPI reading, wage talks are likely to be much tougher this year. Indeed, there are already reports that companies are forced to up wages just to keep staff and latest labour market data not just confirmed that jobless claims continue to decline, but also reported an unexpected rise in average weekly earnings growth. But with demand coming back companies are also more likely to pass on the sharp increase in cost pressures. If the jump in energy prices were not enough, the FT warned that beer prices are also set to rise sharply, with prices of malting barley nearly doubling last year. Long term supply contracts mean higher costs are only now being passed on to consumers. With struggling consumers told to wrap up warm and use hot water bottles to keep a lid on energy prices and a rise in beer prices underway, BoE Bailey’s calls for wage restraint didn’t go down well. http://www.actioneconomics.com/upload/Eurozone-Econ/UK-Overview36_400x250.gif Indeed, more than anything communication will be key as central banks navigate a very difficult situation. Bailey may have been clumsy in his remarks, but he and his chief economist Pill clearly are aware that cautious moves are required in order not to stifle growth as the economy navigates the recovery from the pandemic. The two were among those arguing against a large 50 bp move at the last meeting. Indeed, delivering not just successive, but unusually aggressive rate hikes at this point would likely see markets running too far ahead with the tightening story, which could see a jump in rates that in turn could weigh on the recovery. The BoE’s monetary policy report already suggested that markets are too pessimistic on the medium term outlook and if the bank were to deliver a 50 bp hike in March, while inflation rates continue to rise, markets would very likely be pushing for even more with the next pick up in headline inflation. Measured action then will likely remain the order of the day for now, especially as easing supply chain pressures should also help to limit the rise in cost pressures going forward. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 22, 2022 Author Share Posted February 22, 2022 Date : 22nd February 2022. Market Update – February 22 – RISK OFF – Stocks Dive, Treasuries Up, Oil Leaps. Stocks have collapsed as Treasuries rally and a major rally in Oil and Gold as President Putin recognizes the breakaway regions of Ukraine and orders troops into the country. The West prepares more sanctions, with USD and JPY bid. NZD also holds Friday’s bid ahead of RBNZ. Gold rallied to test $1914, Oil rallied up 3.4%. Yields fell to 1.858 from 1.91 from Friday’s close. Asian markets sank (Nikkei -1.7%, Hang Seng worst performer -3.2%). VIX futures trade -5.7%, EuroStoxx FUTS -3.44%. USD up(USDIndex 96.11). USD on bid next resistance 96.30 from 14/2. US Yields 10-yr tanked from 1.932 close Friday to 1.91% now to test 1.90. Equities – USA500 -32 pts (-0.72%) 4348 on Friday. US500 FUTS collapsed (-2.0%) to 4230 earlier, back to 4285 now. USOil – Topped at $94.00, back to under $92.00 now and trades at $91.72. Gold – Holds over psychological $1900 now back to $1908. Bitcoin broke lower to trade at $36,800. FX markets – EURUSD under 1.1300, USDJPY holds below 115.00 to 114.50 earlier and 114.75 now. Cable breaches under 1.3600 and trades at 1.3590. Overnight – JPY CPI data (0.8% vs 1.1% & 0.5% previously), but all focus was centred on geopolitics. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 49 ticks, US futures are outperforming as investors head for safety while keeping a close eye on the developing situation in east Ukraine. The standoff between the West and Russia will keep pressure on stock markets, which already sold off yesterday and are set to correct even more today. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently down -1.1% and –0.7% respectively. Today – German Ifo, US Flash PMIs, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic and BoE’s Ramsden, Earnings HSBC (beta), Home Depot. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.27%) Rallied from lows of 0.6120 earlier, popped to 0.6155 and trades at 0.6140 now. MAs now aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram significantly below 0 line, RSI 43.25 & falling, OB zone, H1 ATR 0.00010, Daily ATR 0.0048. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 23, 2022 Author Share Posted February 23, 2022 Date : 23rd February 2022. Market Update – February 23 – Oil, Gold & Bonds Ebb; Kiwi Jumps. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Stocks stabilised and indexes came up from yesterday’s lows, as markets digest the still fluid developments in Ukraine and the standoff between the West and Russia. Haven demand eased and yields backed up. President Biden announced sanctions on Russia, including financial restrictions. Earlier Germany halted Nord Stream 2. UK will stop Russia selling sovereign debt in London. The RBNZ lifted its policy rate by 25 bp to 1.00%, adding to signs that central banks are moving out of crisis mode and are set on policy normalisation. Governor Bowman opened the door for a 50 bp liftoff next month. Gold below $1900, Oil settled at $90.50. Treasury yields cheapened with the front end underperforming on worries over aggressive rate hikes to help contain inflation. USD down (USDIndex 95.11) as risk appetite has stabilised. US Yields 10-year yield richened to 1.844% overnight before climbing to 1.958% then settling at 1.925%. Equities – GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.6% and 0.1% respectively, while a 0.7% rise in the USA100 is leading US futures higher. USOil – Steady at $90.50 as neither sanction appears as harsh as it could have been. Gold – dipped as haven demand ebbed – below $1900. Bitcoin broke higher to trade at $38,388. FX markets – NZDUSD jumped to 0.6776, EURUSD at 1.1340, USDJPY steady at 115.00. Cable breaches 1.3600. European Open – German consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped to -8.1 in the advance reading for March. The March 10-year Bund future is down -4 ticks, Treasury futures are outperforming slightly, although the German 30-year future also seems to be benefiting from the prospect of reduced ECB support as surveys signal a swift rebound from the latest virus wave, but also mounting inflation pressures. Risk appetite has stabilised somewhat, although markets will keep a wary eye on Ukraine and the standoff between the West and Russia. For now though the focus seems back on central banks and the Fed’s tightening schedule. Today – Today’s local calendar includes the final Eurozone HICP number, which will highlight once again that inflation is staying higher for much longer than initially expected. That in turn is putting pressure on the ECB to rein in stimulus. The UK has the latest retailing survey, which should register the easing of virus restrictions. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.74%) Spiked to 78 highs earlier. MAs now aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram significantly above 0 line, RSI 72.66 & rising. H1 ATR 0.155, Daily ATR 0.781. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 24, 2022 Author Share Posted February 24, 2022 Date : 24th February 2022. Market Update – February 24 – Stocks plummet, oil up as Russia attacks Ukraine. Risk aversion has hit markets hard amid reports of a full blown attack by Russia on Ukraine, which has also lifted Brent clearly above the $100 per barrel mark. Ukraine declared a 30-day state of emergency, called up reservists and urged its citizens to leave Russia. More cyber attacks on government websites and banks and disinformation campaigns were seen as a prelude to war. Also, US officials said diplomacy with Russia was dead for now. That added to the gloom. Russia suspended movement of commercial vessels in Azov Sea. Von Der Leyen – EU Planning `Massive Sanctions’ on Russia. Treasuries rallied and stock markets across Asia sold off as the world watches Ukraine. The US Treasury rate is down -12.3 bp at 1.868%, while the Nikkei has lost -1.8%, the ASX nearly 3% and Hang Seng and CSI 300 -3.1% and -2.3% respectively. Brent is trading at $102.19, the front end WTI future at $97.07 per barrel. Gold below $1949. USDRUB at 80.99. USD spikes (USDIndex 96.75) US Yields 10-year yield down to 1.868%. Equities – GER30 and UK100 futures are down more than 3.5% and 2% respectively, while USA500 was down 2.3% and USA100 fell 2.8%, putting the USDIndex on track toward confirming it is in a bear market. Reuters: “Closing down at least 20% from its Nov. 19 record high close of 16,057.437 points would confirm the Nasdaq has been in a bear market, according to a widely used definition. That would mark its first bear market since 2020, when the coronavirus outbreak crushed global financial markets.” USOil – spiked to $96.46, & UKOIL passed $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014, adding to inflation worries. Gold – rallied over 2% as haven demand ebbed – below $1900. Bitcoin below $35,000 as, sell-off spread to cryptocurrency markets as well. FX markets – Yen benefited, while the Euro and to a lesser extent Sterling struggled. EURUSD at 1.1245, USDJPY drifted to 114.39, Cable breached 1.3485. European Open – The March 10-year Bund future has gained 182 ticks, outperforming versus US futures, which are up 119 ticks, while in cash markets the US Treasury yield has lifted off overnight lows, but is still down -10.9 bp on the day at 1.882%. Europe in particular is seen as vulnerable to the escalation of the situation because it could also potentially affect energy supplies, although a German economic institute yesterday suggested Germany could get through the winter even if Russia totally cuts off gas supplies. Meanwhile more sanctions on Russia’s economy are underway and for now the situation remains fluid, which will keep markets in defensive mode and heading for safety. Today – Today’s data calendar includes US GDP, Jobless claims, PCE and speeches from ECB members and Fed Members. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDRUB (+6.42%) Spiked to 80.99 high. MAs now aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram significantly above 0 line, RSI 72.88 & rising. H1 ATR 0.54430, Daily ATR 1.32211. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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