HFM Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 Date : 28th June 2021. Market Update – June 28 – Fear is back even in Summer. Wall Street was mixed on Friday, with the USA30 outperforming as reflation trades are back on. Supporting the rally was a blowout earnings report from Nike. The company saw record quarterly US sales, and beat on the bottom line as well, seeing the USA30 member surge to all-time highs, gaining over 15%. The USA500 closed at record highs, adding 0.34%, up 14 points to 4,281. Yields pushed higher last week, as growth optimism dominated, but investors are keeping a weary eye on virus developments amid the emergence of new more infectious strains. Today: It was a very slow start to the week for equities, with markets across the Asia-Pacific region hardly moving as investors weighed Covid developments and the outlook for central bank policy. The 10-year Treasury yield is unchanged at 1.5%. Equity markets have traded narrowly mixed, as a new rise in Covid-19 infections across Asia and concern over more potent strains weighed on sentiment. In Malaysia the nationwide lockdown was extended, while Greater Sydney was put under stricter restrictions in a bid to contain outbreaks. In Hong Kong the morning session was cancelled thanks to a rain storm warning. BoJ was confident of recovery at June meeting the summary of discussions showed. The sense was that accelerating vaccination programs would prop up the economy. At the same time inflation pressures were still judged to be benign given the fragile recovery. Forex Market: JPN225 is currently down -0.1%. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.1% at the moment and US futures are posting similar gains. The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar drifted lower, USDJPY dropped to 110.61 while the EUR steadied between 1.1920-1.1970 for a 5th day. The Pound strengthened across the board and cable is off last week’s lows, currently at 1.3909. The USOIL topped tto $73.69. Gold prices slipped to a 1-week low on Monday, weighed down by a bounce in the dollar and mixed signals from the FED on monetary policy tightening despite tame inflation data. Monday’s Calendar – Fed’s Williams, Quarles and ECB’s Panetta along with Labor data and Retail Trade fom Japan. Significant FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) XAUUSD (+0.34%) Rallied to the upper range level at 1785.77. Faster MAs currently flattened, RSI 54 and slipping, MACD signal line and histogram close to 0 line. Stochs rising and testing OB zone again. H1 ATR 3.4457, Daily ATR 27.3871. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted June 29, 2021 Author Share Posted June 29, 2021 Date : 29th June 2021. Market Update – June 29 – High Valuations, End of Quarter, Caution. Sentiment remains cautious and stocks under pressure, but Treasury yields tumbled lower on the day, recovering all of last week’s losses and then some. The 10- and 30-year yields fell over 5 bps to the 1.4698% and 2.0857% areas, respectively, on the day, with the break in key technical levels of 1.50% and 2.10% supporting the richening. Concern about the spread of the more infectious Delta variant of the virus is weighing on confidence as governments try to limit the impact. Equities remain mixed, with the USA100 holding in record territory, and keeping the bulk of its gains. The USA500 continues to idle on either side of unchanged, while the USA30 underperforms, losing over 200 points early on, then recovering slightly in afternoon trade. The USA30 components Chevron off over -3% as oil prices faded, while Boeing shed -3% after being told certification of its new long range aircraft would not come until at least 2023. The energy and financial sectors were the biggest laggards, while utilities and tech paced winning sectors. Valuations remain a question for further stock market gains, with the USA500 P/E ratio the highest in over 10-years. The charts that matter “Significant long-term charts with historical price data back to 1950 remain very powerful and important. The 2 first weeks of July are the best weeks of the year “we are here” – USA500 is just starting if you look at the seasonality pattern since 1985 After the 2 first weeks of July, USA500 and Russell tend to “chill”, while NDX continues moving higher, but above all, note the USA100 pattern starting now Exposure in FAANMGs is close to record lows Tech’s range break out has been extremely powerful, and the candle today shows just how strong this momentum remains” Forex Market: EURUSD is little changed at 1.1907. The Australian and NZ Dollars weaken for second day on low risk appetite, USDJPY steadied to 110.10-60 while the EUR steadied between 1.1920-1.1970 for a 5th day. The Pound declines further with Cable to 1.3857. Gold prices edged lower as USDIndex hovers below 2-month high. USOIL slid to 3-session lows of $72.63 after printing new trend highs of $74.45 in Asia. The move lower was linked to concerns over rising Covid cases in many parts of Asia, including Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, which prompted some profit taking from 32-month highs. In addition, long positions may be cut ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday, where expectations are for an announced production increase, beginning in August. Tuesday’s Calendar – Data releases today include Eurozone ESI economic confidence, German June HICP and UK lending data, while US Consumer confidence is also due, but virus headlines will likely dominate. Significant FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USA30 (+0.34%) dipped by more than 0.44% from 34,525 to 34,172 low. Faster MAs and RSI are currently flattened,while MACD signal line and histogram are negatively configured, all suggesting that the short term decline run out of steam and the asset is consolidating for the time being. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted June 30, 2021 Author Share Posted June 30, 2021 Date : 30th June 2021. Market Update – June 30 – Gold at its worst monthly drop. Jitters over the rapid spread of the more infectious Delta variant seem to be receding and Treasury yields have moved higher overnight, as equity markets across the Asia-Pacific region gained after US shares touched record highs yesterday, but pared gains into the close. Hopes that vaccines will be effective mean investors are sticking with the recovery story after strong US data yesterday boosted economic optimism. JPN225 is currently down by 0.13%, with a disappointing contraction in industrial production weighing on sentiment. China official PMI readings also eased, however, the slowing in the pace of expansion is not a surprise given supply chain disruptions around the world, though the data continued to suggest China’s recovery remains on pace. Cyclicals rallied, while Bank stocks were mostly higher following announced dividend increases and stock buybacks. Improved consumer confidence and a year over year surge in home prices supported equities at the margins. Wall Street closed slightly higher yesterday, with indexes touching new highs. GER30 and UK100 futures are also fractionally higher. UK Q1 GDP revised down to -1.6% q/q in the final reading, from -1.5% q/q previously. The annual rate was confirmed at -6.1% y/y. Private consumption corrected -4.6% q/q, reflecting mainly the impact of a relatively strict lockdown that quarter. Government spending rose 1.5% q/q, while exports slumped -6.1% and imports -13.5%. Investment contracted less than initially feared, but was still down -1.7% q/q, although at this point and with the economy heading for a full re-opening in July and already pretty much on track for a strong rebound thanks to vaccination programs, the Q1 number doesn’t really change the overall picture or outlook. Forex Market: USDJPY is at 110.46, after the Dollar firmed on haven demand. The Australian and NZ Dollars are under pressure so far, USDJPY has steadied above 110.40 while the EUR steadied above 1.1890. The Pound declined to 1.3810 lows and is currently settled at the 1.3850 area. USOIL meanwhile lifted to USD 73.42 per barrel after an industry report showed US crude stockpiles fell last week, overriding trader and investor concerns about transportation curbs in some countries as COVID-19 cases surge. Gold is down 7.8% so far this month, and heading for its worst monthly drop since November 2016. Today’s Calendar – Markets are also keeping a close eye on signals from central banks and in particular the Fed, after strong consumer confidence readings out of the US yesterday. Today’s calendar focuses on German jobless numbers and of course the preliminary reading for Eurozone June HICP, Canadian GDP and US ADP employment change. Significant FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPUSD retests the 1,3800 area for a 2nd day in a row wıth faster MAs bullishly crossed and RSI at 37 and pointing lower. MACD signal line and histogram are negatively configured, while Stochastic turned below OS barrier, all suggesting that the short term decline continues. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Date : 2nd July 2021. Market Update – July 02. Wall Street was narrowly mixed again overnight, as investors sat on their hands ahead of the upcoming June jobs report. Data on ISM manufacturing, jobless claims, and construction spending was ignored in favor of the more crucial employment numbers on the horizon. Also yesterday, according to FT, the world’s leading economies have signed up to a plan to force multinational companies to pay a global minimum corporate tax rate of at least 15% following intense negotiations in Paris at the OECD. The historic agreement among 130 countries will ensure the largest companies, including Big Tech, pay at least $100bn a year more in taxes, with more of that money going to the countries where they do most of their business. The USA500 did manage another record high, with the USA30 in the green too as value shares were favored. The USA100 was largely flat. Stock markets in Japan and Australia managed to move slightly higher, though, while China bourses sold off with some commentators suggesting that the conclusion of the centennial celebrations for the Communist Party meant increased risks for markets. In Europe, core exchanges rose, with the UK100 adding 1.25%, and the GER30 rallying 0.47%. Comments from ECB’s Lagarde suggesting that the current cap on dividends and share buybacks for banks could be lifted at the end of September helped underpin sentiment. Also: Fed’s Harker (non-voter) backs tapering. ECB’s Weidmann backs symmetrical inflation target for the ECB. Dovish comments from BoE’s Bailey, who stuck to the view that inflation will be transitory, added support, although they didn’t prevent Gilts from underperforming versus Bunds, with the former up 1.4 bps to 0.728%, and the latter 0.7 bps higher at -0.203%. Hopes that the impact of the rapidly spreading Delta variant won’t prevent the projected re-opening of holiday travel, while also keeping central banks in supportive mode, helped peripheral stock and bond markets. Forex Market: USDIndex edged up to 92.60, and USDJPY is at 111.65, while the USOIL future is at $75.22per barrel. The Australian and NZ Dollars hold at Q4 2020 lows, while the EUR slipped to 1.1834 from 1.1888. Gold sustains gains at the 1779 area. As Soc Gen accurately notes, US 2y rates are driving the Dollar. “The challenge for the FX market is that with no rate on the cards for over 12 months, expectations about what the Fed will do are bound to move around with each and every major economic statistic. All eyes, then, are on payroll data and if they come in strong, the dollar bears are going to get squeezed.” Today’s Calendar – ECB’s Lagarde is scheduled to speak today, but likely to repeat the familiar line that the crisis is not over and support is still necessary. At the same time we will see US labor market data. US nonfarm payrolls preview: nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise 550k in June following increases of 559k in May and 278k in April as there continues to be a big gap between the strength in the recovery and the record high in job openings against the relatively slow return of workers amid various headwinds. We’re also forecasting a 35k jump in factory jobs. The work-week should hold steady at 34.9 while hours worked picks up 0.4%. The unemployment rate is seen dipping to 5.6%. Average hourly earnings are projected rising 0.2% as minimum wage workers have been slow to come back. However, the y/y wage gain should surge to 3.5% from 2.0%, with a big boost from base effects. Significant FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDZAR(+0.54%) extending highs for 2 days in a row, above the June high and the 50% retracement level since the February downleg. MACD lines and RSI are positively configured. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 5, 2021 Author Share Posted July 5, 2021 Date : 5th July 2021. Market Update – July 5 – USD subdued, Bonds leap & Stocks hold gains. Market News Today – The Dollar weakened, Bonds & Stocks rallied following NFP (850k vs 700k but an uptick for Unemployment & patchy Earnings) and ahead of long weekend. Asian markets follow through overnight – but big miss for Chinese Services PMI’s virus developments and China’s bid to curb the influence of internet giants quells the rally. Yields; the biggest driver – 10yr lost -3.31%, 5yr -4.77% & 30yr -1.97%. USDIndex holds 92.30, USA 500 4352. (Tech stocks lead rally (GOOGL+2.30%) Overnight AUD building approvals weaker but Retail Sales better. EUR 1.1855, JPY down to 111.00 & Cable tests up to 1.3835. Gold still rotates at $1785, USOil Holds over $74.00 at 74.35 as OPEC issues rumble on. Week Ahead – FOMC Minutes, RBA Rate Decision, ECB Growth Forecasts & Special Strategy Meeting. European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is fractionally higher, while in cash markets the 10-year Bund yield is unchanged at -0.24%. Other Eurozone bond markets are underperforming in early trade, while U.S. markets remain closed today for the observance of July 4 Independence Day. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.03% and 0.106% respectively, suggesting a cautious start to trading today. US Stock FUTS in the red so far. Today – OPEC developments continue as the UAE and Saudi disagree over quotas; – EZ & UK PMIs (Final) ECB speak and US Independence Day. Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Copper (+1.59%) Rallied from 4.222 lows on Friday to test 4.350 (20-day MA) today. Faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 73.50 OB but still rising, MACD signal line and histogram rising remain significantly above 0 line. Stochs rising and also in OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0150 Daily ATR 0.0950. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 6, 2021 Author Share Posted July 6, 2021 Date : 6th July 2021. Market Update – July 6 – A weaker USD; RBA, OPEC & Kiwi hog the headlines. Market News Today – USD continued to weaken, strong EZ & UK data lifted European markets, England to lift most restrictions by July 19. OPEC meeting abandoned, OIL prices hit 3-year high (Brent $77+). Overnight RBA no change but bond purchases extended for 6 months but at lower rate, “conditions will not be met before 2024.” NZD rallied (1.14%) on strong data and 2021 interest rate rise expectations, dragging AUD higher (0.98%). Asian equities firmer. USDIndex under 92.00, EUR 1.1890, JPY under 111.00 at 110.75 & Cable tests up to 1.3900. Gold breaches $1800, USOil over $75.00 at $75.85. German manufacturing orders missed significantly (-3.7%) but previous reading was revised sharply higher (+1.2%). Week Ahead – FOMC Minutes, RBA Rate Decision, ECB Growth Forecasts & Special Strategy Meeting. European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is slightly lower, as are US futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has lifted 2.0 bp to 1.444%. Dax & FTSE100 FUTs are weaker on stronger GBP & EUR with German data weighing. Today – EZ & UK Construction PMI, German ZEW, US Final Services & Composite PMI, ISM Services PMI, ECB’s de Cos, de Guindos. Day 1 of the ECB Strategy Review meeting. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+1.06%) Rallied from 0.7020 zone yesterday, which was up from Fridays NFP low of 0.6945, to breach 0.7100 on very strong reversal in business confidence today. Faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 82.38 and significantly OB but cooling, MACD signal line and histogram rising remain significantly above 0 line. Stochs. also in OB zone, but also cooling. H1 ATR 0.0015 Daily ATR 0.0065. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 Date : 7th July 2021. Market Update – July 7 – Yields drive markets lower, USD Consolidates. Market News Today – USD consolidates on safe-haven bid, Bonds rallied/Yields dived, Nasdaq hit another ATH & Oil crashed. Chinese regulators flexed their muscles again & a surprise miss for ISM Services PMIs weighed on sentiment. Asian equities mixed. USDIndex up to 92.50, EUR slips to 1.1825, JPY holds under 111.00 at 110.70 & Cable tested under 1.3800. Gold holds $1800, down from $1814, USOil tanked from $77.00 to $72.00, trades at $72.90 now; what next for OPEC? 10yr yields dived to 1.348%. German industrial production dropped -0.3% vs expectations of +0.5%. Week Ahead – FOMC Minutes, RBA Rate Decision, ECB Growth Forecasts & Special Strategy Meeting. European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is slightly lower, while U.S. futures have found support. In cash markets the U.S. 10-year yield has moved up from lows, but at 1.36% remains below the 1.4% mark, underpinning the sense that the Fed will be able to wait before embarking on tapering action. Investors will be looking ahead to today’s release of the FOMC minutes for the June policy meeting, which could give a clearer sense on how far advanced taper talks really are. In Europe, the focus today will be on the EU Commission’s updated set of forecasts, which are likely to be more optimistic on growth, but also bring upward revisions to inflation projections. DAX & FTSE Futures a tad higher in early trades. Today – EU Forecasts, FOMC Minutes, Fed’s Bostic. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.35%) Rallied from 77.30 lows yesterday to breach 77.50 to 77.80 highs. Faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 51.70 & rising, MACD signal line & histogram remain significantly below 0 line, but rising. H1 ATR 0.0015, Daily ATR 0.0065. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 8, 2021 Author Share Posted July 8, 2021 Date : 8th July 2021. Market Update – July 8 – USD & JPY on Bid as Risk Off Raises its Head. Market News Today – USD at 3-month highs, Bonds rallied/Yields dived, Nasdaq & S&P hit another ATH. Seem familiar? FOMC minutes showed “Hawkish Tilt” & some members up for tapering as early as this year – conditions could be “met somewhat earlier than anticipated”. Asian equities down as risk off bites on Virus spikes, with Sydney, Indonesia and South Korea mixed. USDIndex up to 92.82 yesterday – 92.70 now, EUR slips under 1.1800, JPY down to 110.25 & Cable under 1.3800 at 1.3775. Gold holds $1800, down from $1808, USOil down again at $71.15 now; what next for OPEC? 10yr yields dived under 1.300%. Overnight – RBA’s Lowe acknowledged QE will be required for foreseeable future, strong UK housing data, better data from JPY & German Trade balance missed expectations. Week Ahead – FOMC Minutes, RBA Rate Decision, ECB Growth Forecasts & Special Strategy Meeting. European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is higher, the 30-year outperforming, similar to developments in US futures. Yields continue to fall and curves flatten as markets adjust their tapering and central bank expectations amid the realization that the initial bounce back in activity is starting to level off – high levels and capacity constraints limiting the scope for a further acceleration in growth. In cash markets the US 10-year rate dropped back a further -1.2 bp to just 1.304%, and the German 10-year is set to fall further below the -0.3% mark. DAX and FTSE100 futures meanwhile are down -0.1% and -0.4% respectively and US futures are also in the red. Today – ECB Minutes, Strategy Review Announcement and Lagarde Press Conference, US Initial & Continuing Unemployment Claims. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.96%). Rallied to 78.00 highs yesterday before closing at 77.60. Move lower today on JPY bid, under 77.00. Faster MAs aligned lower, RSI 26.70 OS and still falling rising, MACD signal line & histogram remain significantly below 0 line & falling. H1 ATR 0.0015, Daily ATR 0.0065. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 9, 2021 Author Share Posted July 9, 2021 Date : 8th July 2021. Market Update – July 8 – USD & JPY on Bid as Risk Off Raises its Head. Market News Today – USD at 3-month highs, Bonds rallied/Yields dived, Nasdaq & S&P hit another ATH. Seem familiar? FOMC minutes showed “Hawkish Tilt” & some members up for tapering as early as this year – conditions could be “met somewhat earlier than anticipated”. Asian equities down as risk off bites on Virus spikes, with Sydney, Indonesia and South Korea mixed. USDIndex up to 92.82 yesterday – 92.70 now, EUR slips under 1.1800, JPY down to 110.25 & Cable under 1.3800 at 1.3775. Gold holds $1800, down from $1808, USOil down again at $71.15 now; what next for OPEC? 10yr yields dived under 1.300%. Overnight – RBA’s Lowe acknowledged QE will be required for foreseeable future, strong UK housing data, better data from JPY & German Trade balance missed expectations. Week Ahead – FOMC Minutes, RBA Rate Decision, ECB Growth Forecasts & Special Strategy Meeting. European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is higher, the 30-year outperforming, similar to developments in US futures. Yields continue to fall and curves flatten as markets adjust their tapering and central bank expectations amid the realization that the initial bounce back in activity is starting to level off – high levels and capacity constraints limiting the scope for a further acceleration in growth. In cash markets the US 10-year rate dropped back a further -1.2 bp to just 1.304%, and the German 10-year is set to fall further below the -0.3% mark. DAX and FTSE100 futures meanwhile are down -0.1% and -0.4% respectively and US futures are also in the red. Today – ECB Minutes, Strategy Review Announcement and Lagarde Press Conference, US Initial & Continuing Unemployment Claims. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.96%). Rallied to 78.00 highs yesterday before closing at 77.60. Move lower today on JPY bid, under 77.00. Faster MAs aligned lower, RSI 26.70 OS and still falling rising, MACD signal line & histogram remain significantly below 0 line & falling. H1 ATR 0.0015, Daily ATR 0.0065. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 12, 2021 Author Share Posted July 12, 2021 Date : 12th July 2021. Market Update – July 12 – A cautious start for equities. Market News Today – Wall Street ended the week in a positive mood & investors continue to buy equities at the start of this week. Hopes of ongoing central bank support are supporting the long end as virus developments see investors trim growth & inflation expectations. China’s central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio, as flagged in advance last week. The liquidity sensitive ChiNext saw the highest level since June 2015 & the offshore yuan nudged higher. Japanese markets outperformed; JPN225 gained 2.2%. Japan core machine orders jumped 7.8% m/m in May, much more than anticipated & the third straight month of improvement, despite tightening virus restrictions. Virus developments continue to impact the annual rate, but the sharp acceleration in the monthly rate compared to the 0.6% m/m rise in April is encouraging. The 10-year Bund is swinging between gains & losses, while peripheral bonds are moving higher & spreads narrow. Curves are flattening as the long end outperforms. Equities meanwhile are finding a footing & GER30 is fractionally higher after paring earlier losses. UK100 is still in the red but up from earlier lows, USA100 future is also marginally higher, indicating that investor appetite has already turned cautious again as markets keep a very close eye on virus developments as the Delta variant spreads through Europe. The latest surge started in the UK, which continues to see very high daily infection numbers & now also a pick up in hospitalisations. Germany’s numbers remain much, much lower, but have also started to creep higher amid concern that developments will derail plans to re-open much of Europe for the summer. Overall, we don’t expect the recovery to be derailed & that should see yields creeping higher at some point, even if central banks remain very cautious for now. Today – It will be a slow start to the week, with a lack of key releases and likely focus on virus developments. The earnings season also kicks off with JPMorgan, Goldman, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) XAUUSD (-0.40%). Gold prices eased on Monday as a slightly stronger dollar and buoyant equities dimmed the safe-haven metal’s appeal. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 Date : 13th July 2021. Market Update – July 12 – A cautious start for equities. IN THE SPOTLIGHT: WELLS FARGO, BANK OF AMERICA, CITIGROUP, BLACKROCK This week the key Q2 Earnings season kicks off in earnest, with many of the major US banks reporting and expected to massively beat consensus, something that could please the bulls. But will this be the case? And if yes, then what? Wall Street has remained in rally mode and at record highs, ahead of what is expected to be a strong Q2 earnings season. As the chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, Sam Stovall, told CNBC’s Trading Nation on Friday: “I think what we’re going to be seeing is the second-best year-on-year quarterly gain in the last 25 years, second only to what we saw in the fourth quarter of 2009, since USA500 earnings are expected to be almost 61% this quarter”. Q2 earnings are seen as key for setting the tone of company performances as the spread of the Delta Covid variant will likely continue, with countries like the Netherlands reporting an 800% increase in cases over the past week, hence fears that economic growth could plateau, and slowing vaccination rates globally keeping investors cautious over high valuations. Overall the US equity markets notched further all-time highs with a strong close yesterday as strong economic data keeps recovery hopes alive. The Financial sector has been a major beneficiary of the “reflation” trade since last year and the Stimulus Bill and the Infrastructure Bill, which also benefited and could continue benefiting the banking sector in particular. So far the financial sector posted 34.5% earnings growth in the first Quarter of 2021 while Q2 is projected an amazing 117% earnings per share growth for Financials in Q2, according to research firm FactSet. That’s the 3rd highest projection FactSet has on a sector basis. A key concern is a potential decline in “special purpose acquisition companies” (SPACs) activity during Q2 might also have hurt the sector. Hence following the JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs report today, Wednesday has Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock, Infosys, PNC Financial, and Delta Airlines. The Bank of America (#BankofAmerica OR BOA) consensus recommendation is “Buy”, as revenues are expected to beat as earnings are likely to exceed according to the majority of the consensus recommendations from the Eikon Reuters terminal. According to Reuters Eikon Research, the report for the fiscal Quarter ending June 2021 is expected to experience a near quarter rally of its Earnings Per Share (EPS) compared to last year, at $0.77 from $0.37, which implies a mean change of 0.41% and a year-over-year growth of 107.9%. Zacks Investment Research predicts similar EPS, while the company’s revenue is seen depreciating slightly from a year ago to $21.83 billion, down by 2.16% on a yearly basis. Please note that BOA, the nation’s second-largest bank, has surpassed earnings forecasts in the last two quarters due to strong growth in its sales & trading and investment banking businesses, regardless the company’s revenues have dropped since 2020 due to net interest income decrease. The net interest income, which contributes more than 50% of the total revenues, was down due to the interest rate headwinds and lower new loan issuance. Further, the same factors are likely to continue supporting solid growth for the bank’s sales, trading and investment banking for the rest of the year but the interest rates are likely to remain low on the resurgence of rising Covid-19 cases. In regards to Citigroup now, things are similar to BOA as the bank is expected to post a beat on Earning ESP but a slowdown on consumer banking revenues. Similar to Q1 2021, the factors that are anticipated to affect the financial report for Q2 are: Low Consumer Banking Revenues: Lower credit card loans as credit card holders are now paying back their loans at faster rates based on abundant liquidity and government aid, resulting in delays or even preventing lending volumes. Slip of Trading Revenue: After a jump in trading activity and underwriting deal volumes since 2020, management forecasted a decline in Q2 2021. Lower fixed-income revenues are anticipated to have been an undermining factor for bank’s earnings. Slip of Investment Banking Revenue: On the one hand, more M&A deals implies rising advisor fees from Citigroup, something that is expected to be a strengthening factor. However on the flipside, a decline in investment banking revenues is a risk for the bank. Net Interest Income Decline: another undermining factor for Revenue similar to BOA. Expenses Rise: Q2 expenses will likely rise to $11.2 billion. Asset Quality to Improve Hence Citigroup is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.96, in comparison with the $0.50 EPS reported for the same quarter last year. The revenue is seen at $17.20 billion, according to Eikon group analysts estimates, nearly 11% lower than Q1 2021. From a technical perspective, whatever the outcomes are, much is anticipated from the numbers of Bank of America and Citigroup, as both banks are expected to outperform the consensus estimates for earnings, even though revenues are likely to fall short of expectations. Both banks remain technically Bullish in the medium term, trading north of their respective 20- and 50-week EMAs, even though a strong pullback has been seen in June. Today #Citigroup is at the $69 area, stabilising the past 5 weeks above the 50-week EMA finding a support at the $65.80 level suggesting that the correction might run out of steam. #BankofAmerica is at $40.59, above the double bottom seen at $38.47 as positively configured momentum indicators suggest that the outlook remains positive. Finally, Wells Fargo and Blackrock, which are the fourth and fifth largest US banks, are expected to slate strong Q2 earnings reports, after the first posted its first loss since the global financial crisis of 2008 and the latter has a solid history of beating earnings estimates while it is well seated to hold a positive trend in its Q2 report. Wells Fargo could post an EPS of $0.97 and revenues of $17.75 billion. The #Wells Fargo price sustains a move above the 20-week SMA for a 2nd week in a row, after the rebound from the $41 low. Momentum indicators and their positive to neutral configuration along with the sustained a move with a 1-year upward channel imply a positive medium term outlook for the stock price. Blackrock on the other hand, in contrast with the other 3, has had a remarkably strong performance since March 2020 without a notable pullback on stock price in 2021, while it is currently trading at record highs. According to Eikon Reuters, the world’s largest asset manager is expected to report adjusted earnings of $9.36, in comparison with the $7.85 EPS reported for the same quarter last year. The revenue is seen at $4.605 billion, according to Eikon group analysts estimates, which is more than 25% growth since Q2 2020. Hence a beat of estimates could boost the stock to fresh all time highs. Nevertheless, the US bank stocks have enjoyed a strong rally in 2021, clearly seen from US major indices such as USA30 which is up 92% since the 2020 bottom and up 33%YTD, due to the continued boost from massive stimulus packages, positive vaccination rollout, and the accomodative Fed’s policy. Based on Refinitiv estimates, together, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan are anticipated to report profits of $24 billion in Q2 2021, up significantly from the $6 billion seen last year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 Date : 14th July 2021. Market Update – July 14 – Central banks are gearing up!. Q2 earnings got off to a lackluster start Tuesday. Hefty earnings beats from JPM & Goldman Sachs were overshadowed by concerns over revenues& as a lot of the strength was on easy comps. US: A much hotter than expected CPI print & very poorly bid 30-yr bond auction were a potent combination for a Treasuries selloff. The combo also left Wall Street heavy. June CPI surged 0.9% on both headline & core, more than double the estimate for the overall index & 3x the forecast for the ex-food & energy component. For the former it was the biggest jump since June 2008, while for the latter it tied for the largest since late 1981. Asia: Bonds across the Asia-Pacific region were under pressure though & New Zealand’s 10-yr rate spiked 7.3 bp to 1.73% after the RBNZ unexpectedly decided to end large scale asset purchases by July 23. Stock markets mostly struggled, though the ASX managed to lift 0.4%, despite extended virus restrictions in some parts. JPN225 is -0.3%. The NZX 50 is down -0.5%. UK CPI inflation unexpectedly jumped to 2.5% y/y from 2.1% y/y in the previous month. A strong round of numbers, even if PPI readings show a slight deceleration in price pressures. The official BoE line has been that inflation overshoots will be transitory, but after today’s round of higher than expected numbers, labour market data later in the week will be watched very carefully. Fed Chair Powell testimony preview: Chair Powell goes to Capitol Hill for his semi-annual Monetary Policy Report (aka Humphrey Hawkins) & his comments will be especially scrutinized after another hefty CPI jump. However, while he will likely indicate that price pressures have been above Fed expectations, we expect him to reiterate the price pressures should be “transitory” & largely a function of base effects & the supply/demand impacts from reopenings & supply chain constraints. He will also repeat that the FOMC is not yet ready to begin withdrawing accommodation as the labor market has yet to fully recover. And he won’t give a timeline on QE unwinding. FX markets: GER30 & UK100 are down -0.1% & -0.007% respectively, while US futures are still narrowly mixed, with the USA100 future outperforming. NZD rallied in the wake of the hawkish turn at the RBNZ. USD is steady to weaker, with USDJPY at 110.53. EUR & GBP lifted against a largely weaker USD, although EURUSD remains below 1.18 & Cable below 1.39. USOIL meanwhile is at $75.06 per barrel. Today – Data releases today focus on US June PPI, BoC Monetary Policy & Press Conference & the first day Testimony from Fed Chair Powell. The earnings calendar includes BOA, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Blackrock. Central banks are likely to gradually reduce the extraordinary degree of stimulus later in the year, but monetary policy will remain accommodative for a long time to come which should see economies through virus setbacks. Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) NZDUSD (+1.20%). Kiwi spiked to 0.7030 following the RBNZ’s unexpected move. Momentum indicators are still positively configured with exception of Stochastics which flattened into the OB area implying a potential sideways move. Fast MAs aligned higher. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 27, 2021 Author Share Posted July 27, 2021 Date : 23rd July 2021. Market Update – July 23 – USD & Equities move higher. Market News Today – USD dipped following ECB & weak US data but has recovered as USDIndex eyes 93.00 again & a “Golden Cross”. EUR 1.1770, JPY 110.30, Cable 1.3750. Equities struggled but ended up, USA500 (+0.20%), Strong Earnings #TWTR. Yields held gains 1.265%. Virus concerns continue to weigh, US Republicans now encouraging vaccinations. USOil breached & broke $70.00, Gold back over $1800. Overnight – JPY closed until Monday, shares in Asia struggled to follow US higher, AUD PMI data at 14-mth lows (50% of popn. in lockdown) & UK Retail Sales data beat as restrictions continue to ease and football was supposed to come Home. ECB – Negative Rates Are Here to Stay – ECB tweaked its rate guidance yesterday which resulted in an even stronger signal that the bank expects this year’s inflation overshoot to be temporary. The marginally higher inflation target & refined hurdles for rate hikes have pushed an exit from negative rates even further into the future, but doesn’t necessarily clarify the outlook on asset purchases & PEPP. The focus on the forward guidance may actually signal a shift back from asset purchase targets to rates as the main signal for the ECB’s policy stance. European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is down -3 ticks, Treasury futures are slightly underperforming. DAX and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are up 0.3% and US futures are posting similar gains. The ECB’s affirmation of its ultra-accommodative policy stance and the strengthening of the guidance on rates should continue to keep sentiment underpinned. ECB’s Villeroy also stressed this morning that it was perfectly justified to stick with accommodative settings for now, but also indicated that the central bank will look at asset purchases again in September. For now though virus developments and the rapid spread of the Delta variant is likely to keep a lid on growth optimism. Today – Flash Eurozone, UK & US PMIs, CBR Rate Decision, Canadian Retail Sales. Earnings from Danske Bank, American Express and Honeywell. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.21%) 4th day of big move from lows of 0.6330 on Tuesday, to test 20-Day MA (0.6417) today. Breached 21EMA yesterday, faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 59 and rising, MACD signal line & histogram rising & significantly above 0 line. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0064. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 28, 2021 Author Share Posted July 28, 2021 Date : 28th July 2021. Market Update – July 28 – Risk aversion ahead of FED. LONDON “It is not China’s aggressive foreign policy that is the source of the disturbance in the capital markets, but its aggressiveness at home as it asserts over control parts of the tech sector and toughens its anti-trust efforts.” – Marc Chandler Treasuries have led European bonds higher, as stock markets remain cautious ahead of the FOMC announcement. Risk aversion continues to dominate as virus developments cloud over the outlook for growth in the second quarter. Also, China’s regulatory clampdown spooks investors. The delta variant is keeping central banks in wait and see mode for now although the more hawkish camps are likely to push for a discussion on tapering after the summer – at least in the central scenario. BoJ’s summary of opinions also highlighted the need for ongoing caution with regard to tightening. Earnings reports have actually been better than expected on the whole. – GER30 and UK100 futures are still down -0.2%, US futures also slightly lower. Australia bonds rallied despite a spike in CPI inflation to 3.8% y/y in the second quarter. German GfK consumer confidence held steady in the advance reading for August, against expectations for a further marked improvement. US reports revealed a modest under-performance for the durable goods figures and another robust round of home price gains. For durables, the June data were modestly disappointing, but most May metrics were revised upward, leaving only a slight disappointment. In FX markets: The USDIndex lifted out of a 13-day low, while EURUSD concurrently ebbed back towards the 1.1800 level, down from yesterday’s 13-day high at 1.1841. The Dollar remained comparatively softer versus the Pound, which rallied across-the-board yesterday as markets reacted to the sharp drop in Covid cases and the IMF’s sharp upward revision in its UK growth forecast for 2021, which, to recap, it expects at 7.0% and would mark the joint fastest growth out of the major advanced economies. Cable settled just off Tuesday’s 13-day peak at 1.3895. AUDUSD was heavy, AUDJPY also managed to hold above its Tuesday lows after a sharp decline yesterday and USDCAD ebbed back to the upper 1.2500s after yesterday’s short-lived foray above 1.2600, which left Friday’s peak at 1.2608 unchallenged. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADCHF(+0.57%) – Spiked to 0.7280 from 0.7245, breaking PP. Currently the fast MAs are flattened, MACD signal line & histogram under 0 line, and RSI is at 46 and moving lower with all suggesting that the spike was limited and a pullback could be seen. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 29, 2021 Author Share Posted July 29, 2021 Date : 29th July 2021. Market Update – July 29 – Equities gained on the back of a dovish FED. Narrow ranges prevailed across asset classes yesterday and there wasn’t too much of a reaction to yesterday’s Fed announcement. The Fed provided some buying impetus and both stocks and bonds closed with modest gains in tandem with Treasuries and Wall Street. Overnight, the Treasury yields lifted 0.3 bp to 1.24% as Chinese shares led a broad rebound in Asian stock markets. Like the ECB, the Fed signalled progress on the recovery, but also effectively signalled a cautious wait and see stance over the summer.– The FOMC signalled patience on tapering. Chinese officials stepped up efforts to reassure investors, with state run media questioning whether the correction in equities was overdone and reports suggesting China will continue to allow local firms to go public in the US. China’s central bank boosted cash injections by adding 30 billion Yuan. Australia import and export prices came in higher than anticipated, which left local bonds paring earlier gains. Topixand JPN225 are currently up 0.2% and 0.6%. GER30and UK100 futures are down -0.1% though and US futures narrowly mixed, as investors wait for US GDP data. Weekly US inventory data showed a 4.1 mln barrel draw on stockpiles, more than the median forecast for a 3.43 mln draw. A Reuters reporthighlights analysts are expecting a quicker-than-is-being-anticipated plateau in summer oil demand across the northern hemisphere due to the impact of new restrictions in the face of the Delta variant driven spike in new Covid cases. Proposed US infrastructure deallooks to higher taxes on crypto for part of the funding. Pfizer Inc. in Q2 2021 jumped 92% on the year to $19 billion, exceeding analyst expectations. Nissan Motor and some semiconductor firms (Advantest, Screen Holdings, TDK) delivered surprisingly strong earnings. In FX markets: Both the EUR and the Pound have moved higher against a largely weaker USD, with EURUSD now at 1.1863 and Cable at 1.3936. USDJPY dropped back to 109.66. USOIL meanwhile is trading at $72.20 per barrel. Gold prices spiked to 1819 as the US Federal Reserve chairman struck a dovish tone after the policy meeting. Today: The European calendar is busy today with German HICP inflation and labour market data alongside the Eurozone ESI economic confidence reading. Markets are also waiting for US GDP data. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) XAUUSD (+0.72%) – Spiked to 1819.81 breaking 20-, 50- and 200-day EMA. Currently the fast MAs are still aligned higher as MACD signal line & histogram point northwards and RSI extended to 71.60 suggesting that the positive bias increases. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted July 30, 2021 Author Share Posted July 30, 2021 Date : 30th July 2021. Market Update – July 30. Improved demand for risk boosted Wall Street overnight and weighed on Treasuries amid myriad crosscurrents. The markets are busy repositioning in the last week of July now that the Fed is safely out of the way with little likelihood for a tapering announcement until at least November. The miss on Q2 GDP was overlooked as inventories were the major culprit, while the surge in the price indicators to near 4-decade highs added to the pressure on bonds. The focus turned back to earnings, data, the Delta variant, and the infrastructure deal out of Washington. Good earnings news in general supported stocks with the USA30 and USA500 leading the way with gains of 0.4%, while the USA100 rose 0.1% as concerns over guidance from heavyweights, including Facebook and Paypal (beat earnings estimates, but guided lower), limited enthusiasm. Amazon’s online sales growth is slowing as lockdowns ease. Amazon’s core online store business disappointed, since it grew 15%, the slowest rate since 2019, despite it bringing forward its flagship Prime Day sales event to June. In Europe, GER30 and UK100 futures are also down -0.7% and -0.6% respectively. In FX markets: EUR and GBP corrected against a stronger USD, leaving EURUSD at 1.1877 and Cable at 1.3980. USDJPY lifted to 109.60, although the Yen was steady to higher versus most other currencies. USOIL is at $73.38 per barrel. Gold was little changed at $1,831. USOIL’s rally to 2-week highs over $73.20 on tight US supplies helped the CAD today as well. The market ignored the small uptick in Canada May average weekly earnings. USOIL stabilized at 72.60 today while PP is set at 72.45 and Resistance is at 73.00 and 73.30. Today: The calendar is busy and focuses on Q2 GDP numbers for the Eurozone and Germany, which is expected to show a strong rebound from the contraction in the first quarter, while preliminary HICP readings could come in higher than anticipated, after strong German numbers yesterday. US CPI is also on tap, and it should decline -0.8% in June following the -2.0% May drop. Spending is forecast rising 0.9% after the unchanged reading in May. Weakness should result in a -5.5% decline in “current transfer receipts” after an -11.7% May plunge, as this measure tracks the pull-back in stimulus spending. This will more than offset the 0.5% rise in compensation. The savings rate should fall to 10.8% from 12.4% in May and a 27.6% peak in March. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted August 2, 2021 Author Share Posted August 2, 2021 Date : 2nd August 2021. Market Update – August 2 – USD consolidates at lows. Market News Today – USD up from 1-month lows (USDIndex 92.00 from 91.75 Friday) – Chinese & Asian stock markets rise, despite weak Chinese PMI & other Asian data. US equity markets closed lower on Friday (-0.54% USA500 4395) led by -7.56% fall for AMZN. Yields closed the week down at 1.239%. Overnight – HSBC beat earnings significantly, adding to good news from other European banks. AUD housing market still hot, JPY consumer confidence ticks up, German Retail sales bounce back significantly. Gold down again at 1808, USOil also down, but up from a test of 72.00, earlier. Week Ahead – Another key week to start the month – RBA, BoE, CAD Jobs, NFP & a raft of PMI data. European Open – DAX & FTSE 100 futures up 0.5% & 0.4% respectively, US futures posting gains of 0.5-0.6% after an upbeat session across Asia-Pacific region overnight. In FX markets both EUR & GBP little changed against USD, with EURUSD at 1.1873 & Cable at 1.3909. China jitters eased & there was some progress on the (much reduced) US infrastructure spending plan, which helped underpin sentiment. Virus developments in Asia continue to cause worries, but for Europe at least the hope is that advanced vaccination campaigns will allow economies to get through this wave without the type of restrictions that could seriously hurt the recovery. Central banks are cautious though as there are still lingering risks that will likely also keep the BoE in wait & see mode this week. Today – EU, UK, US Manufacturing PMI (Final), US ISM Manufacturing PMI Earnings: AXA, Heineken, Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDNZD (+0.19%) Has moved up from 1.0517 (2021 and 33 week lows) on Friday. Weak breach of 21 EMA earlier, Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram under 0 line but moving higher, RS 55, neutral but rising, Stochs rising and already into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0051. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted August 3, 2021 Author Share Posted August 3, 2021 Date : 3rd August 2021. Market Update – August 3 – USD, Equites & Yields Pressured on weak data & Virus surge. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Market News Today – USD pressured again (USDIndex struggles @ 92.00) on weak data yesterday & virus surge in Southern low-vaccination states. JPY & CHF benefit – Yields lead – down again; 10yr 1.51%, lows – closed at 1.74%. Equities flat into close (USA500 4387). Oil dumps -3.5%, CAD sinks. RBA more Hawkish than expected – AUD rallied – September taper looks set though cautious undertones remain amid concerns over housing market & virus & vaccination situation. Chinese & Asian stock markets very mixed after more Chinese clampdowns (this time on Gaming) and virus surge in China. Fed’s WALLER (Hawk) suggests September taper announcement. Overnight data mixed; better CPI for Tokyo, weaker Housing approvals for AUD. Gold holds at 1808 but USOil down significantly to test 70.00, yesterday and only 70.30 now. European Open – September 10-yr Bund future fractionally higher, US futures marginally lower, while in cash markets 10-yr Treasury rate is struggling at 1.176%. The real 10-yr Treasury yield remains close to record low. DAX & FTSE100 futures down -0.2% & -0.1% respectively, US futures up 0.2-0.3% after a largely weaker Asia session. With little on the European calendar to distract markets those will likely also be the themes for the European AM session, alongside earnings reports. The BoE decision tomorrow is also coming into view with the UK expected to join Fed & ECB & signal cautious patience for now. Today – US Factory Orders, Fed’s Bowman, – Earnings: Generali, Societe Generale, BMW, Infineon, BP, Standard Chartered, Alibaba, Phillps 66, Eli Lilly, ConocoPhillips. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.19%) Has moved up from 0.8680 (14 day low yesterday) as Oil prices tumbled and NZD got a lift from Hawkish RBA. Significant breach of 21 EMA yesterday, Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 and moving higher, RS 78 and well into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0060. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted August 5, 2021 Author Share Posted August 5, 2021 Date : 5th August 2021. Market Update – August 5 – USD Holds gains following Hawkish Clarida. Market News Today – USD (USDIndex 92.20) & Yields (10yr 1.20%) boosted. Fed Vice Chair Clarida continues hawkish tilt. Earlier big miss for ADP (330k vs 700k) had seen Yields tank to 1.127% (6-mth low) & USDIndex 91.80 before big beat for ISM Non-Manu. PMI & Clarida’s “rate lift-off in 2023” & “tapering in 2021” comments. Equities mixed at close (USA500 -0.46% 4402). Asian markets hold gains. Oil inventories show a big build (+3.6m vs -3.2m & -4.1m last week) – USOil declined further to $67.16 (11-day low) recovered $68.00 handle now. Gold spiked to $1830 after ADP, back to $1810 now. German Factory orders – a big beat 4.1% vs 2.1%. European Open – September 10-yr Bund future up 20 ticks, while Treasury futures are slightly lower, as investors continue to digest comments from Clarida, who said he was surprised by the extent of the slide in global yields – indeed it seems surprising that with the recovery now pretty much confirmed, the German 10-yr rate should be at -0.503%, i.e. lower than the deposit rate. BOE Outlook – Some risk of hawkish twist. The bank is expected to keep policy settings unchanged, but some expect Bailey to explain the outcome of the review on how to best withdraw stimulus when the time comes. If he does, it should not be seen as a sign of imminent tightening, but could spook markets, especially after Clarida’s comments yesterday. US futures are fractionally higher. In FX markets EURUSD is little changed at 1.1840, while Cable is at 1.3925 ahead of BOE. Today – US weekly jobs, BoE Policy Announcement & Press Conference, Fed’s Waller. Earnings: Adidas, Bayer, Continental, Credit Agricole, Lufthansa, Deutsche Post, Siemens, Glencore, Rolls Royce, WPP, ViacomCBS, Kellogg. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.32%) Rallied from 80.50 support to 81.00 yesterday before closing lower at 80.75. Retesting 81.00 again today. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 significantly and moving higher, RS 60 and still rising. H1 ATR 0.081, Daily ATR 0.710. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted August 6, 2021 Author Share Posted August 6, 2021 Date : 6th August 2021. Market Update – August 6 – USD Firmer on Jobs Day. Market News Today – USD (USDIndex 92.35) & Yields (10yr 1.237%) both higher today ahead of NFP. Weekly claims were in-line (385K). Equities rallied into close (USA500 +0.46% 4429). Asian markets weaker again on virus worries. BOE implied that rates hikes may come sooner than expected, avoided direct talk on taper and raised inflation expectations to 4%. Overnight – Significantly weaker JPY and German data. USOil rallied from $67.13 (12-day low) to $69.00 handle now. Gold spiked down to $1798 and struggles to hold the key $1800 now. The US Senate could agreed $1 trillion infra. plan on Saturday. European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is slightly lower, Treasury futures are underperforming and in cash markets the U.S. 10-year rate is up 1.1 bp at 1.24%. Tapering speculation is creeping back in and markets will be cautious ahead of today’s all important US payroll report. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently flat, up 0.019% and down -0.057%, respectively, while US futures are fractionally lower. Eurozone markets extended higher with Wall Street yesterday, but caution is likely to prevail ahead of the payroll report today. Today – US & Canadian Labour Market Reports, BoE’s Bailey – Earnings: Allianz, ING, Hikma Pharmaceutical, LSE, Dominion Energy. Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Copper (+0.85%) Rallied from 12 day fall to 4.3000 yesterday to test 20-day MA at 4.3930 today. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 significantly and moving higher, RS 76, OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.0103, Daily ATR 0.1014. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted August 9, 2021 Author Share Posted August 9, 2021 Date : 9th August 2021. Market Update – August 9 – Gold dips to 1681. Market News Today – Bonds across Asia-Pacific were mostly under pressure, while stocks moved higher. September 10-year Bund future is down 5 ticks at 176.45, outperforming slightly versus US futures. That ties in with pressure on bond markets during Asian hours. Japan is on holiday today, but elsewhere concern over China’s regulatory clampdown eased, which helped underpin risk appetite, as did progress on the US infrastructure plan, which is expected to be signed off by the Senate early this week. Part of the move higher in local markets will also be catch up trade following the stellar US jobs report last week. The spread of the Delta variant continues to cloud over the outlook for global growth & that is also a key reason behind the slide in oil prices. GER30 and UK100 futures are currently down -0.1% and -0.2% respectively and US futures are also posting losses of around -0.1/0.2%. In FX markets both EUR and GBP are little changed against the USD at 1.1763 and 1.3870 respectively. USD (USDIndex 92.74) & Yields (10yr 1.297%) both higher. JPY eased to 110.18, while USOIL prices continued to slide, currently to $66.32 per barrel. Gold slipped to a more than 4-month low today. Today – Data releases today focus on German trade data which beat expectations in June in rising 1.3% m/m, after a mere 0.4% m/m in the previous month. Import growth meanwhile slowed to 0.6% m/m from 3.4% m/m, which left the sa trade surplus of EUR 13.6 bln, up from EUR 12.8 bln in May. Elseswhere we have Jolts Job Openings and FOMC speeches from Bostic and Barkin (voters). Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Gold slipped to a more than 4-month low today (-4.4%) Drifted by nearly 82 points from 1,764.59 to 1,681.83. Faster MA’s clashed, MACD signal line currently below histogram well below 0, RSI 39, all suggesting that the dip reached its end and correction took over. H1 ATR 12.65, Daily ATR 24.20. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted August 10, 2021 Author Share Posted August 10, 2021 Date : 10th August 2021. Market Update – August 10 – Qualm gains in the market. Market News Today – Treasuries have been supported and bond as well as stock markets have traded cautiously mixed across the Asia Pacific region. Another stellar jobs report and hawkish Fedspeak weighed on Treasuries yesterday. Stock markets across the region are mostly higher though and even the ASX lifted 0.35% despite the slump in Australia business confidence. In Europe, the 10-year Bund future is up 13 ticks and continuing to outperform versus Treasuries although in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected -1.0 bp to 1.31%. Sentiment continues to swing between concern that US labour market developments will see the Fed discussing tapering in earnest and fear that the rapid spread of the delta variant will harm the recovery as governments implement new virus measures that slow down output and demand. GER30 and UK100 are fractionally lower, as are US futures. In FX markets the JPY is under pressure and USDJPY lifted to 110.39. NZD and to a lesser extent AUD also eased as tightening speculation was scaled back. EUR and GBP are little changed against the Dollar at 1.1735 and 1.3844 respectively. The USOIL price reversed and is currently at $67.27 per barrel. Gold recovered after a sharp fall. Today – The key data release for this week is today’s German ZEW investor sentiment reading for August. Elsewhere we have the US NonFarm Productivity. Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT + 1.10%) USOIL rebounded to 67.28 from 64.98. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD lines steadied at zero impliying consolidation in the short term, while Stochastics are above 80 pointing further up. H1 ATR 0.31, Daily ATR 1.83. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted August 16, 2021 Author Share Posted August 16, 2021 Date : 16th August 2021. Market Update – August 16 – Sentiment, USD, Equities & Yields slip on weaker Chinese data. Market News Today – USD (USDIndex 92.50) ticks higher, Yields (10yr 1.248%) lower and Asian markets are lower after ATH closes on Wall Street on Friday, even after record miss for UoM consumer sentiment. DAX Futures over 16k for first time ever. Overnight – Weaker Chinese data, record Covid-19 cases in Japan and a new lockdown extension in Melbourne on top of the news from Afghanistan weighs on sentiment. Better data from JPY (beat for GDP) & NZD (better PMI’s) ignored. USOil down to break under $67.00 and Gold holds at $1775. Week Ahead – FED Minutes, RBA Minutes, RBNZ Rate Decision, EUR GDP, US Retail Sales, Global CPI data, European Open – Bailey & Lagarde will not attend Jackson Hole in person. Weak data releases out of the US, Japan and China has sapped confidence in the global recovery and given bond another boost. Core EGB yields were already supported on Friday, after the massive miss in U.S. confidence confidence reading and the September 10-year Bund future is up 29 ticks, pointing to further gains EGBs to start the week. Stock markets may still have clocked fresh records last week, also helped by expectations of ongoing central bank support, but sentiment clearly has turned cautious over the weekend. Today – NY Fed Manufacturing (Empire State). Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.58%) Broke from support at 81.00 on Friday to close at 80.75, moved lower today on weak sentiment and risk-off mood, currently testing 80.20. Faster MA’s aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 significantly and moving lower, RSI 22; OS but still falling. H1 ATR 0.108, Daily ATR 0.530. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 Date : 17th August 2021. Market Update – August 17 – Sentiment weak, USD holds gains. Market News Today – USD (USDIndex 92.70) ticks higher again, on risk aversion as Virus concerns (partic. NZ which will enter new nationwide lockdown) and news from Afghanistan weighs. Yields (10yr 1.25%) lower and Asian markets are lower after ATH closes on Wall Street again (USA500 4479) even after big reverse for Empire State Manu. Index. Overnight – RBA minutes weigh on AUD “would be prepared to act in response to further bad news on the health front should that lead to a more significant setback for the economic recovery.” Better data from JPY (a big beat for Services activity) USOil up from spike lower at 65.50 to $66.70 and Gold rallies from 1770 over $1790. UK Jobs day better than expected. European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is slightly higher, while, but still underperforming versus Treasuries, which have remained supported by ongoing risk aversion, as virus developments and geopolitical developments weigh on sentiment and sap risk appetite. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.03% and -0.18% respectively. US futures are underperforming and in FX markets the dollar is in demand. EURUSD dropped back to 1.1770, although the EUR was steady to higher against most other currencies. The Pound is struggling more and Cable dipped to 1.3821. Today – EZ GDP (2nd), US Retail Sales, Industrial production, Fed’s Powell, Kashkari, Earnings – Walmart. Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-1.22%) Lock news added to worries from RBA across the Tasman Sea earlier in the day and the USD safe haven bid. Crashed from 0.7025 at open and 0.7060 highs last week to 0.6920 now. Faster MA’s aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 significantly and moving lower, RSI 17.80; OS but still falling. H1 ATR 0.0014, Daily ATR 0.0058. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted August 23, 2021 Author Share Posted August 23, 2021 Date : 23rd August 2021. Market Update – August 23 – Dollar Dips, Equities Hold gains. Market News Today – USD (USDIndex 93.32) ticks lower again today, but holds significantly over 93.00.Yields (10yr 1.26%) lower as Asian stock markets follow US higher. (USA500 closed +0.81% @ 4441 & FUTS trade at 4451 now). Weekend – Afghanistan situation continues to hold, Biden issues EO on some Russian pipeline sanctions, Delta variant remains a significant concern, Japanese PM Suga suffers major reverse in local elections. Overnight – AUD & JPY PMIs miss expectations, USOil up from 7-day fall to $61.35 on Friday to $62.85, Gold holds at $1785. European Open – September 10-yr Bund future down -15 ticks, US futures also retreating as risk appetite stabilises. Easing tapering concerns have helped underpin demand; DAX & FTSE 100 futures are up 0.7%, US futures around 0.4%. Japan’s PMI readings pointed to acceleration in the pace of contraction & while European readings are expected to remain firmly in expansion territory, there is the risk that rising cases & questions over the efficacy of vaccines will weigh on services sentiment in particular, while the manufacturing sector continues to struggle with supply chain disruptions & capacity constraints. The announcement that Jackson Hole will be a virtual event will go some way to keep at least hope in ongoing central bank support alive. “The shift away from an in-person gathering, reflects a much more cautious Fed, which in turn suggests the Fed will not be announcing a path on QE tapering as soon as Jackson Hole, and likely not in September.” – Action Economics. Today – EZ, UK, US Flash PMIs, US Existing Home Sales. Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOil (+1.90%) Breaks 7-day losing streak, currently up from 61.35 low on Friday to trade over $63.00 today. Currently back to $62.85. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 but rising and testing this level. RSI 55.6 and rising, MFI 110 and significantly OB. H1 ATR 0.35, Daily ATR 2.15. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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