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[HFM]

Date : 13th April 2021.

Q1 Earnings Season – The Banks.


This week the key Q1 Earnings season kicks off in earnest with many of the major US banks reporting. Q1 earnings are seen as key for setting the tone of company performances as the post-pandemic timeframe gains momentum as the vaccination rate continues to climb and states continue to open up. Overall the US equity markets closed at all-time highs again last week, with a strong close on Friday just shy of those inter-day highs. The USA500 closed at 4,123, the USA100 at 13,800 and the USA30 at 33,751.

The Financial sector has been a major beneficiary of the “reflation” trade and the 1.9 trillion Stimulus Bill and the proposed1.9trillionStimulusBillandtheproposed2.25 trillion Infrastructure Bill, which are all likely to benefit the banking sector in particular. So far 20 of the S&P 500 companies have reported and on average they have beat expectations by 11%, which is over 1.5 times above their average over the last 3 years. Overall expectations for the S&P 500 is for Q1 Earnings to grow by a very significant 25%, which would be the best performing quarter since President Trump’s tax cut inspired Q1 2018. Additionally, what is more encouraging is that estimates have been rising as the Earnings Season arrives; normally they start to decline as the data starts to emerge. Back in late February/early March consensus was for 22% Q1 growth. This enthusiasm is tempered by the high valuations the S&P500 is running currently; forward earnings are currently projected at 22.3 times whereas in a normal economic cycle the historical average is 15 times earnings, hence the scepticsim over further growth from here. However, overall 2021 earnings growth remains very robust and is penciled in at 26.5% versus a -12.6% decline for 2020. Another key drag on future growth in 2021 is President Biden’s proposed increase in Corporation Tax to 28% from 21%; estimates suggest that this could reduce earnings by 7.4% for 2021.



Earnings season kicks off significantly tomorrow, (April 14) with big banks leading the charge. Reports are due from JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and First Republic Bank. Later in the week there will be data from Bank of America, Citigroup, BlackRock, U.S. Bancorp, Truist Financial, Morgan Stanley, HDFC Bank, PNC Financial, Bank of New York Mellon, State Street, Citizens Financial, Ally Financial.



Whatever the outcome, much is anticipated from the numbers and tomorrow (April 14) JP Morgan are first up at 12:00 GMT with expectations of an Earnings per share (EPS) of 3.10[/B] and revenues increasing 5% to 3.10[/B]andrevenuesincreasing530.10 billion, this is followed by Goldman Sachs at 12:25 GMT with consensus numbers of an EPS at 9.79 and revenues also up to 9.79[/B]andrevenuesalsoupto[B]11.71 billion and also before the bell tomorrow is Wells Fargo at 13:05 GMT with an expected EPS of 0.69 on revenues of 0.69[/B]onrevenuesof[B]17.41 billion. Last time JPM and Goldman Sachs both beat on both revenue and EPS numbers significantly whilst Wells Fargo missed, disappointing the markets. All three key banks remain technically Bullish trading north of their respective 20-day moving averages. On Monday (April 12) JPM closed at 153.07, a few dollars shy of the March 18 high at 153.07[/B],afewdollarsshyoftheMarch18highat[B]157.18, Goldman Sachs closed down 2% at 324, some 324[/B],some[B]23 below the March 18 high, whilst Wells Fargo closed at 39.98 off 1.93% for the day and 39.98[/B]off1.930.89 below the close on March 18.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 14th April 2021.

Market Update – World stocks hit record high.


Market News Today – Treasuries erased early gains, but bond markets across Asia remained supported, after investors shrugged off the hotter than expected US inflation number yesterday and focused on the successful 30-year bond auction. Global stock markets rose to a record high on Wednesday as bond yields eased after data showed US inflation was not rising wildly as the economy reopens.

As Reuters reported, Johnson & Johnson’s shares slid 1.34% after US federal health agencies recommended pausing the rollout of its COVID-19 vaccine for at least a few days, after six women developed rare blood clots. Setbacks to vaccination rollouts have raised concerns about the global economic recovery.

New Zealand’s RBNZ left policy settings unchanged and confirmed its commitment to an expansionary policy, which helped to underpin the rise in Australia and New Zealand bonds. A sharp sell off in one of China’s largest bad-debt managers attracted attention and rekindled concerns over credit markets. Bloomberg also reported that Tencent Holdings Ltd is holding off marketing a planned dollar bond deal.

Central banks remain focused on providing stimulus and the hotter than expected US inflation number hasn’t re-booted reflation trades so far, as negative vaccine headlines added to the already concerning outlook for EU supply.

In FX markets, the USD was steady to lower after yesterday’s decline in Treasury yields and USDJPY fell back to 108.96. AUD and NZD gained. Both EUR and GBP lifted against a largely weaker Dollar, with EURUSD currently at 1.1964 and Cable at 1.3777. USOIL meanwhile is trading at 60.73 per barrel. Bitcoin hit a record above 60.73perbarrel.[B]Bitcoin[/B]hitarecordabove[B]64,500, extending its 2021 rally as Coinbase shares are due to list in the United States. Gold held up well against the USD.

Today – Data releases today are unlikely to change the overall outlook, but include Eurozone production data for February and inflation numbers out of Sweden. Comments from ECB’s Guindos will also be in focus. US calendar has March trade prices but earnings to headline with JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc GS.N among the companies reporting.



Biggest (FX) Mover – (NZDUSD @ 07:30 GMT +0.61%) The NZDUSD spiked higher on the largely USD weakness and after the RBNZ statement. The asset broke its 1-week resistance and turned above R2 and the round 0.7100 level. Currently fast MAs and MACD lines are aligned higher but RSI and Stochastics have started turning lower, suggesting a potential pullback. ATR (H1) at 0.00119 and ATR (Daily) at 0.00566.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 15th April 2021.

Q1 Earnings Season – BAC and Citigroup.


This week the key Q1 Earnings season kicks off in earnest, with many of the major US banks reporting and expected to massively beat consensus, something that could please the bulls. But will this be the case? And if yes, then what? As Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan stated, Q1 is the peak in terms of earnings growth; even though the absolute level of growth will still be very healthy, deceleration is a powerful force in the market.

Nevertheless, investors seem to be waiting for new catalysts before pushing valuations out much further and the earnings season provides a major focus against the background of conflicting virus and vaccine headlines.

Hence the earnings slate remains busy for the remainder of the week, and will include reports from UnitedHealth Group, Bank of America, Pepsico, Citigroup, BlackRock, U.S. Bancorp, Truist Financial, PPG, Delta Airlines, J.B. Hunt, Morgan Stanley, HDFC Bank, PNC Financial, Bank of New York Mellon, State Street, Kansas City Southern, Citizens Financial, Ally Financial.

Hence the focus today turns to Bank of America and Citigroup Inc. and their first Quarter earnings release for 2021.

The Bank of America (#BankofAmerica OR BOA) consensus recommendation is “Buy”, even though revenues are expected to miss as earnings are likely to exceed according to the majority of the consensus recommendations from the Eikon Reuters terminal. According to Zacks Investment Research, the report for the fiscal Quarter ending March 2021 is expected to experience a near quarter rally of its Earnings Per Share (EPS) compared to last year, at 0.65 from0.65from0.40. Reuters Eikon predicts similar EPS, while the company’s revenue is seen depreciating slightly from a year ago to $22.03 billion (Eikon) with a mean change at 3.63%.



The BOA has surpassed earnings forecasts in the last two quarters, driven by a positive decline in provisions of credit losses on a sequential basis, while its revenues have suffered due to weakness in core banking, which it is strongly dependent on. As Forbes stated, the company witnessed an 11% y-o-y drop in net interest income, which contributes around 50% of the total revenues. Despite the fact that the financial sector has been a major beneficiary of the “reflation” trade and the 1.9 trillion Stimulus Bill and the proposed1.9trillionStimulusBillandtheproposed2.25 trillion Infrastructure Bill, which are all likely to continue benefitting the banking sector, the net interest drop led to a drop in the full year 2020 BOA revenues, despite a 20% jump in the Global Markets segment driven by higher sales & trading and investment banking revenues.

In regards to Citigroup now, things are slightly different as the bank’s pandemic reserves are worth almost 10% of the bank’s market capitalisation. However as more and more Americans are vaccinated and the government releases more stimulus, the more the pressure from the banks’ credit models will be for the banks to release some of the cash. This means Citgroup will face less pressure than other big banks. On top of the above, Citigroup is in general in a better setup as higher trading activity in the securities market and a jump in underwriting deal volumes boosted trading and investment banking revenues for all the main banks and Citigroup was no different. Further, with the stimulus and possible vaccination development (so far 119 million people have received the Covid-19 vaccine in the US), provisions are expected to see a further decrease in Q1 2021, boosting its profitability.

Hence Citigroup is expected to report adjusted earnings of 2.60, in comparison with the2.60,incomparisonwiththe1.06 EPS reported for the same quarter last year. The revenue is seen at $18.82 billion, according to Eikon group analysts estimates, nearly 9% lower than Q1 2020.



From a technical perspective, whatever the outcomes are, much is anticipated from the numbers of Bank of America and Citigroup, both banks are expected to outperform the consensus estimates for earnings, while revenues are likely to fall short of expectations. Both banks remain technically Bullish, trading north of their respective 20- and 50-day moving averages. Today #Citigroup is at 72.90,[/B] below its 2021 highs at 72.90,[/B]belowits2021highsat[B]76.13 but still in 3-year high territory. #BankofAmerica is at 39.86, just a breath below all record highs with next Resistance areas at the Fibonacci extensions, at the 39.86[/B],justabreathbelowallrecordhighswithnextResistanceareasattheFibonacciextensions,atthe[B]42 and $45.30 levels.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 16th April 2021.

Market Update – Pricing in a solid global recovery again.


Treasuries posted strong and very surprising gains, overlooking robust data and a solid rally on Wall Street. It was something of a buy-the-fact trade as hefty data was the well advertised risk (Retail sales surged 9.8% in March and climbed 8.4% excluding autos & Initial Jobless Claims tumbled -193k to 576k). The 10-year yield dropped 10 bps to 1.530%, the lowest in a month. The break of key technical levels added to the bid, with some haven demand too amid virus and vaccine worries, along with some geopolitical risks.

The USA500 and the USA30 reached record highs thanks to strong data that supported the recovery narrative, along with hefty earnings, and the drop in yields. The USA100 outperformed with a better than 1% jump and is back over 14,000 for the first time since mid-February. As Refinitiv reported, USA100 traders were all bulled up buying the tech breakout yesterday after the USA100 rallied 10%. BUT we should keep an eye on technicals as RSI has reached overbought levels. Elsewhere, Asia markets were largely steady after China reported a sharp acceleration in first quarter growth, though the reading slightly undershot expectations while retail sales bounced strongly last month. For Europe, GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively.

In FX markets, EURUSD is little changed at 1.1968, while GBPUSD dropped back to 1.3761. USDJPY is little changed at 108.79. AUD and NZD fell slightly below yesterday’s peak. USOIL extended gains to 63.84. Gold held steady near a more than one-month high on Friday, en route to its second straight weekly gain, boosted by a drop in US Treasury yields and a weaker Dollar.

Today – Today’s data calendar focuses on final Eurozone inflation readings for March and February trade data also for the Eurozone. US Building permits, housing starts and Michigan Index are also on tap.



Biggest (FX) Mover – (EURGBP @ 07:30 GMT -0.43%) The asset rallied to 0.8710 retesting the 7-week highs for a 3rd time. Intraday the fast MAs aligned higher, RSI is at 66, while MACD is positive but signal line holds at neutral. ATR (H1) at 0.00061 and ATR (Daily) at 0.00488.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 19th April 2021.

Market Update – April 19 – Equities at highs, BTC hit from weekend hiatus.


Market News Today – US Equities at new closing highs on Friday, (4 consecutive weeks for USA500), USD remains weak with 10-yr yield now well under 1.60% at 1.56%. Asian markets higher and European FUTS up too. JPY seeing some buying in Asia – EUR weaker. BTC weekend collapse (65k – 51K) reason? – US regulators preparing move on money launderers? Power cut in China’s crypto mining hub Xinjiang? (Trades down 14% at 57k now). AUD-NZD air corridor open, European Football in revolt, Biden to reduce Corp. tax demands to 25%?, $5.4tn global savings stockpile – FT

Week Ahead – ECB, BOC, & PBOC rate decisions, more CPI data, PMIs, and more key Q1 Earnings reports. – including Netflix, AT&T, Johnson & Johnson, Intel and American Express.

The Dollar has remained soft in concert with heavy US Treasury yields. Ranges have been narrow, though the USDIndex still edged out a one-month low at 91.05, extending the decline from the five-month high that was seen in late March at 93.44. The 10-year Treasury note yield has at the same time settled on a 1.560% handle, just a couple of basis points above last week’s five-week lows. The benchmark yield remains down by nearly 20 bp from the 14-month highs that were seen in late March. Amid the dollar softening theme, which lifted EURUSD beyond 1.2000 to seven-week highs at 1.2036, there , was a side theme of moderate yen outperformance, which aided USDJPY to a seven-week low at the key 108.00, while EURJPY and AUDJPY printed respective 11- and five-day lows.

Asia stock markets have remained underpinned, though the MSCI Asia-Pacific index remained off recent highs. S&P 500 E-mini futures was showing a 0.3% decline in early London trading, correcting after the cash version of the index closed on Wall Street at a record peak on Friday in what was its sixth consecutive weekly gain. Incoming corporate earnings will remain a focus, especially those of cyclical businesses.

European stock markets are mostly higher, although the DAX is slightly lower and overall moves have been muted as investors look to the earnings season and this week’s central bank meetings for fresh catalysts.

The global Covid vaccine supply capacity continues to ramp higher, and continental Europe seems to be past the point of peak pessimism, with infection rates steadying and the vaccine rollout set to accelerate in the weeks and months ahead. The sharp spike in Covid cases in India and, increasingly, Pakistan, are cause for worry, however, as it’s been driven by variant B.1.617, which has two ‘escape mutations’ that make it able to dodge antibodies. This variant has been detected in 77 cases in the UK.

Today – Highlights include ECB asset purchases and earnings from IBM, Coca-Cola and United Airlines.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) BTCUSD (-14.00%) Gapped on open – see news item above. Technically stalled at S3 56,150 from a close on Friday at PP 61,850. MAs remain aligned lower although 5 EMA now above 9 EMA, RSI OS (29 and rising), MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower and under 0 line from Friday morning. Stochs rising from OS zone. H1 ATR 970.00, Daily ATR 2860.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 20th April 2021.

Market Update – April 20 – Weaker USD & JPY Today.


Market News Today – US Equities slip (TSLA, Nvidia and Peloton) all hit by news (-0.5%) as Yields & USD move from lows. EUR, GBP & AUD bid, JPY pressured. Asian markets at 6-week high on weak USD, Nikkei down, German PPI and UK jobs data both beat expectations. Xi cautioned against “meddling in others internal affairs”, Kuroda no change to ETF purchases and cautions on recovery.

The Dollar has diverged from US yields, with the greenback, as measured by the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex, extending yesterday’s steep decline in posting a fresh seven-week low at 90.82. The index is now down by a cumulative 2.8% from the five-month highs that were seen in late March. Today’s decline marks a break from the recent correlative pattern, being concomitant with rising longer-dated Treasury yields. The 10-year note yield is up 2.2 bp on the day, at 1.627%, as of the early London morning, which is the loftiest level since last Thursday, while marking an 8 bp rebound from the recent low. The 10-year yield remains some 17 bp down on the high seen in late March, and clearly the currency market is anticipating limited risk for a return to a sustained yield ascent, similar to what we saw during the first three months of the year.



Instead, markets are running with a similar dollar-bearish sentiment that was prevailing over the final quarter of last year, with the greenback weakening amid a backdrop of buoyant global equity and commodity markets, with optimism running high for global economies to rise strongly from pandemic hardships on the back of vaccinated-assisted reopening of societies, along with massive stimulus policies and an expected unleashing of consumer ‘lockdown savings’ in major economies, all alongside a benign outlook on inflation, particularly in the US where the fiscal stimulus is the largest, both by contemporary global standards and by post-second world war standards. We suspect this won’t last, and markets will return to pricing in contingency risk that the Fed may be forced to tighten much sooner than the 2024 start point for tightening that has been signalled by the central bank.

Today – Highlights include still to come on a quiet day CB’s de Cos, & Earnings from Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, Phillip Morris, P&G & Lockheed Martin.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.84%) Rallied on open from PP & 200MA at 83.90 to beyond R3 at 84.60. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI OB at 77 but still rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and over 0 line from earlier. Stochs OB zone and rising. H1 ATR 0.1260, Daily ATR 0.6050.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 21st April 2021.

Market Update – April 21 – USD gets safe haven bid reprieve.


Market News Today – US Equities moved down again (-0.68%) (Netflix subscribers fell – shares down 11% after close) USD move off 7-week lows (USDIndex at 91.20) & JPY gain safe haven bid as commodity currencies trade mixed. EUR holds 1.2030 & GBP at 1.4000. 10-yr Yields down at 1.56% mid-march lows. Asian markets down 2.0% and European FUTS off after DAX -1.55% & FTSE -2% yesterday. USOil holds at 62.00[/B], Gold up to 62.00[/B],[B]Gold[/B]upto[B]1784 and the VIX up 15% to a 21.55 high. Virus rebounding in Asia (Tokyo & Osaka in lockdowns, India record daily cases 200k+ per day as cases double every 13 days) and LATAM (Brazil, Peru, Argentina & Uruguay lead infection spikes). ESL collapses after the 6 English cubs withdraw. Overnight data – AUD Retail sales beat significantly, NZD CPI was a tick better & UK CPI a tick worse. Xi to attend Biden climate summit for first meeting and Powell is planning to “limit inflation overshooting too far”.

European Open – Bunds slightly higher in opening trade, and the 10-year rate has dropped back -0.2 bp to -0.265%. Peripherals are outperforming for now, which is encouraging, but if risk appetite continues to wane, that will also rely on ongoing ECB support. Treasuries have held yesterday’s gains overnight and are still at 1.56%. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are moving higher, while US futures are paring some of their earlier losses, which suggests somewhat improved sentiment. Data releases at the start of the session included UK inflation numbers, which showed the headline CPI rate rising to 0.7% y/y in March, up from 0.4% y/y in the previous month, but actually slightly lower than feared. Core lifted to 1.1% y/y from 0.9% y/y with base effects playing a role. PPI data meanwhile showed sharply higher input as well as output costs, with the former reaching 5.9% y/y, the latter 1.9% y/y.

Today – Highlights include Canadian inflation, BoC rate decision, BoE’s Ramsden, Bailey, Earnings from Verizon, ASML (already out – a big beat) Ericsson, Baker Hughes, Halliburton and NextEra.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) VIX.F (+15.00%) Gapped on open after strong day yesterday following stock market weakness and lows of 16.82 on Friday. Rallied to 21.55 highs. Faster MAs remain aligned higher from yesterday, RSI OB at 73 and cooling , MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and over 0 line from Friday. Stochs OB zone and cooling. H1 ATR 0.47, Daily ATR 0.98.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 22nd April 2021.

USOil – Increase in stockpiles and infections lowers oil prices.


USOil, H1 – US crude oil prices fell for a second consecutive day to below 61.00, as the USDIndex posted a two-day low at 91.00, extending the decline from yesterday’s high at 91.43 and returning focus to Tuesday’s seven-week low at 90.86. Weekly US Stockpiles came out much higher than expected and was the first increase in as many weeks at 600,000 barrels. In addition, the number of people infected with COVID-19 is skyrocketing globally, raising concerns that lockdown measures may be reintroduced. In Asia, Japan is preparing to announce lockdowns in Tokyo and Osaka, while India is now recording near 300,000 daily infections as the number of people infected every 13 days in Latin America also increases.

In technical view, Daily timeframe, the price has made a new high lower and begins to see a downward Channel that has the potential to become a Bullish Flag in the future. While prices can now break below the 50-DMA line, MACD is lower, and RSI is mid-range, so it’s possible that the prices will remain unchanged.



As for today’s oil price outlook, H1 sees a Falling Wedge pattern where prices move in a narrower and lower frame, indicating the possibility that prices may lift again. This time, however, the 50-period MA is moving closer to the 200-period SMA, where, if it crosses, it could confirm a short-term downward trend in oil prices. Today’s support is at the psychological level of 60.00 and resistance is at the MA line at the 61.80 zone.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analysts – HF Educational office – Thailand

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 23rd April 2021.

Market Update – April 23 – Equities and Bitcoin Lower; USD Flat.



Market News Today – US Equities down again (-0.92%), USD (91.20) & Yields (1.55%) flat, BTC tanks under $50k on Biden proposal to raise capital gains tax to 40%. ECB nothing new, Largarde talked up strong 2H recovery, June meeting likely to see some changes. Claims at 13-month low. Overnight AUD up on good PMIs, JPY CPI lower PMIs ease higher too, Big jump for credit card spending in NZ and UK Retail Sales much better 5.4% vs 1.5%. AT&T & Intel beat expectations. Earth Summit – Biden cuts US emissions target by 50% for 2030, Japan, Canada and UK also cut targets.

European Open – Asian stock markets traded mixed, after Wall Street was hit by proposals for a higher capital gains tax for the wealthy in the U.S. as a way to pay for the government’s social plan. U.S. futures are already moving higher again, but Asian markets struggled after the weaker close in the U.S.. Topix and Nikkei lost -0.6% and -0.8%, as inflation came in a tad higher than anticipated, although at -0.1% y/y the headline rate remains stuck in negative territory. The ASX lost -0.1%, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently up 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. The U.S. 10-year rate has lifted 2.0 bpo to 1.56% and bonds were also under pressure across Asia. In FX markets the dollar struggled, while CAD and AUD were supported. EUR-JPY dropped back to 107.89. Oil prices meanwhile pared a weekly loss, as the focus shifts back to recovering demand at the end of a week that was dominated by concerns over the resurgence of virus cases and rising stockpiles.

Today – Highlights include Eurozone, UK & US flash PMIs, ECB’s Lagarde. Earnings from Daimler, Honeywell and American Express



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.34%) rallied from 0.7060 low yesterday and open today. Moved over 20- and 50-hour MAs, next resistance 200-hour at 0.7096. Faster MAs remain aligned higher from open, RSI 53 cooling , MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but remain under 0 line. Stochs rising. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0058.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 26th April 2021.

The BoJ meets!.


Japan’s BoJ begins its two-day meeting tonight, and will announce policy on Tuesday. No changes are expected, though the Bank is expected to lower its inflation forecasts, largely due to lower cellphone charges, which will keep expectations for ongoing stimulus in place. The markets are closed Thursday for Showa Day.

Growth optimism seems to be heralding a return of reflation trades, as sharply higher services PPI numbers out of Japan just months away from hosting the Olympics added to signs that companies will pass on higher costs as soon as consumer demand bounces back. The Tokyo motor show was cancelled. In data, Japan March inflation numbers, released last Friday, showed core CPI lifting to a y/y rate of -0.1% from -0.4%. In the meantime investors are wary given lofty valuations and with considerable corporate earnings improvement in the year ahead having already been priced in, but rising input costs and the prospect of higher corporate tax rates in the US are clouding the outlook on this front. The tsunami wave of new Covid cases in India is also a concern. Oil prices have turned nearly 2% low today, with commentaries citing an expected decline in demand from India.



That said, Yen found ground on the US Dollar slump and USDJPY printed a low at 107.65, but remained above Friday’s near eight-week low at 107.47. The pair has been tracking the narrowing in the US 10-year yield advantage relative to the 10-year JGB yield, which has been in play for three weeks now. The solid demand that was seen at the 20-year US bond auction last week suggests that, for now, longer-dated yields are likely to remain without upside impetus, though we are still anticipating strong data over the coming months that will likely re-inspire bond markets to price in contingency risk that the Fed may be forced into withdrawing monetary stimulus sooner than it is currently signalling.

According to Reuters, many Japanese life insurers, major investors in global bonds, plan to increase their holdings of Yen bonds as their yields have recovered from lows while some of them are more cautious about foreign bonds.

As for USDJPY, the prevailing bias looks likely to remain to the downside for now, though the bigger picture remains bullish, anticipating a renewed phase of rising US yields in the months ahead.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 27th April 2021.

Market Update – April 27 – Caution ahead of FED.


Market News Today – The short term virus outlook remains difficult in places such as India, which is keeping a lid on growth expectations near term, although looking ahead, confidence that the global recovery will rebound later in the year remains intact.

Central banks meanwhile seem successful in keeping a lid on reflation trades for now, although the risk is that with monetary policy failing to take the foot off the accelerator, they will add to bubbles and over-valuations that could be difficult to correct smoothly. The BoJ already announced steady policy settings and lifted the growth forecast slightly overnight, while in Europe, the Swedish Riksbank is expected to do the same and the Fed, which begins its 2-day meeting today, is also likely to do the same. Meanwhile, China’s anti-trust crackdown has also come into focus again.

10-year Treasury yields are up 0.9 bp at 1.58%, still firmly below recent highs. JGB rates lifted 0.9 bp to 0.069%. Stock markets across the region traded cautiously. JPN225 lost -0.3%. The ASX dropped nearly 1%, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently up. GER30 and UK100 futures are fractionally lower, while US futures are posting gains of around 0.2%. In FX markets the Yen was under pressure and USDJPY lifted to 108.40. The AUD and NZD fell as caution reined in markets ahead of the Fed. The EUR fell to 1.2064, while GBP is unchanged. USOIL is trading at $62.46 per barrel. JPMorgan Chase JPM.N is planning to offer a managed bitcoin fund. BTC holds at 53.5K

Today – The FOMC kicks off its 2-day meeting today, while data releases in Europe are thin on the ground, but include the UK CBI retailing survey. The heavy earnings slate will be the focus today, featuring Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Novartis, Eli Lilly, Texas Instruments, UPS, Amgen, Starbucks, Raytheon, HSBC, 3M, AMD, BP, Mondelez, Chubb, Sherwin-Williams, Corning, ADM, Yum China, Synchrony Financial, PulteGroup, Hasbro, Invesco, and Hubbell.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ 07:30 GMT + 13.6%) – Ripple reverses 6-day drift, Cryptos were supported by Musk and Tesla – the firm said it did sell some of the crypto (in its Q1 earnings call) but only as ‘proof of concept’ the coin could be used in place of cash and also on reports that JPMorgan Chase JPM.N is planning to offer a managed Bitcoin fund.

In the 1-hour chart, momentum is rising higher with fast MAs aligned higher, while RSI is at 71 with MACD extending northwards again. ATR (H1) at 0.06176 & ATR (D) at 0.3011.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 28th April 2021.

Market Update – April 28 – Low risk appetite.


Market News Today – The FOMC and earnings remain the focal points. India continues to threaten, and there are some fears over developing inflationary pressures. No changes or surprises are expected from the Fed. Meanwhile, strong earnings have largely been priced in, so bulls are unwilling to chase stocks higher currently, especially with rates on the rise again. Wall Street was mixed but mostly higher, while the USA100 was modestly lower, though all are at or near all-time highs. Treasury yields advanced a further 2 bp to 1.64%. However, weaker than expected inflation data out of Australia helped to put a floor under local bonds and Australia’s 10-year rate dropped back -0.7 bp to 1.72%. Global Stock markets mostly managed to move higher. The JPN225 lifted 0.5%, and the ASX 0.4%, helped by expectations that the low inflation environment will keep the RBA sidelined for a long time to come.

In FX markets both EUR and GBP eased against a largely stronger Dollar, with EURUSD at 1.2074 and Cable at 1.3884. USDJPY lifted to 108.88, while the AUD was under pressure. USOIL meanwhile is trading at 63.18 per barrel. Gold prices fell to a 1-week low at63.18perbarrel.[B]Gold[/B]pricesfelltoa1−weeklowat1,766, weighed down by firmer US Treasury yields with investors awaiting policy cues from the Federal Reserve’s statement, while Palladium retreats from the all-time high hit on Tuesday.

FOMC preview: This week’s FOMC is universally expected to maintain a steady policy stance. Policymakers will release their decision at 14:00 ET, and Chair Powell will follow up at 14:30 ET with his press conference. Remember too that this meeting does not include new economic projections. Officials have assured to a Spokesperson that the ZIRP posture will be maintained for “some time” into the future, and the dots suggest that this will be at least 2 years. The brightening economic outlook and the improvement in the job situation has not been enough to move the needle on policy, and Chair Powell has said there is a long way to go until the labor market returns to its pre-pandemic levels. The Fed should reiterate that the “path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus, including progress on vaccinations.” It has also stressed it will maintain its accommodative stance until “substantial further progress” has been made on its dual goals, while emphasizing the stance is outcome based and that it will not act pre-emptively based on forecasts. The Fed won’t provide any clarity on what is “some time” or “substantial further progress.” There has been market speculation that the strength in the economy and the trillions of fiscal stimulus on board will see the Fed sound less hawkish, but that time is not now, especially with the surge in virus infections abroad. Officials will also be concerned over the negative effects of a taper tantrum.

Today – The FOMC kicks off its 2-day meeting today, while data releases in the US session include the US Advance Goods, the OPEC Meeting and Canadian Retail Sales. The heavy earnings slate will be the focus today, featuring Apple, Facebook, QUALCOMM, Shopify, Boeing, Sony etc.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ 07:30 GMT (+0.27%) – CADCHF turned above 20-DMA after more than 3 weeks at 0.7387. The overall outlook remains choppy. In the 1-hour chart, momentum is rising higher with fast MAs aligned higher, while RSI is at 63 with MACD extending northwards but keeps close to 0. ATR (H1) at 0.00062 & ATR (D) at 0.00540.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 29th April 2021.

Market Update – April 29 – What a night!!!
 

Market News Today – Japan was closed for a holiday today but elsewhere stock markets got a boost from the FOMC’s commitment to ongoing stimulus and Biden’s USD 1.8 trillion social support plan, with stimulus expected to underpin the recovery in world growth.
 

• Action was seen in the front end of the Treasury market. The 2-year yield dropped 1.6 bps to 0.164% from a test of 0.18% after the FOMC assured tapering and lift off was still not even in the conversation. There had been some suspicion, and pricing, for a possible bearish hint, which was not forthcoming.
• Wall Street was mixed and choppy on the day before closing with slight losses, with the US indexes just off record highs initially and a mix of earnings.
• Apple, Facebook earned massive profits amid increased scrutiny.
• Apple reported record fiscal second-quarter revenue of $89.6 billion on surging sales of premium iPhones and pandemic-induced buying of its other products. Apple authorized an additional $90 billion in stock buybacks.
• NatWest returned to profit in the first quarter of 2021 ($1.32 billion pre-tax).
• In Australia, much higher than expected import and export prices will keep lingering inflation concerns alive. Import price inflation finally turned positive and export prices jumped more than 11%.
• The Fed acknowledged rising inflation though and German preliminary inflation data for April is likely to be a focus today and could weigh on bonds later in the session.
• Amazon is raising wages for its hourly employees after a majority of workers at one of the e-commerce giant’s warehouses voted not to unionize.
• Facebook temporarily blocked posts containing hashtags calling on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to resign, then reinstated them on Wednesday, saying the action had been taken in error.

In FX markets, the USD continued to weaken as a doggedly dovish outlook from the FED and spending plans from the White House gave a green light for the global reflation trade, although the Yen also struggled and USDJPY held pretty steady at 108.61. The front end WTI future meanwhile is trading at USD 64.11 per barrel. The EUR and GBP gained against a largely weaker USD, with EURUSD at 1.2135 and Cable just under the 1.40 mark. The AUD was under pressure. USOIL is above $64 as bullish forecasts for a demand recovery this summer offset concerns of rising COVID-19 cases in India, Japan and Brazil. Palladium & Copper retreat from the all-time highs hit on Tuesday.



Today – The markets will quickly turn their attention back to earnings and data after the uneventful FOMC. Today’s data releases include German jobless numbers as well as Eurozone ESI confidence data, while the earnings calendar features reports from Amazon, Mastercard, Merck, Thermo Fisher, McDonald’s, Shell, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Caterpillar, American Tower, S&P Global, Altria, Southern Company, Twitter etc.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 30th April 2021.

Market Update – Month End – USD weak, Stocks & Commodities Bid.


Market News Today – S&P500 closed at ATH again. USD slipped again (EUR at 2-mth high and up 3%+ for April, USDCAD at 3 year lows). AMZN Earnings big beat – +44% increase in sales (108.5bn); record profits (tripled) AWS +32%, Ad sales a massive +77%; Shares +2.4% after-hours. TWTR beats, rev +28% (108.5bn);recordprofits(tripled)AWS+321.04Bn). Yields rallied to 1.69% 2-week high (now 1.641%). Yesterday – US GDP (6.4%), Claims (553K) and Pending Home sales (1.9%) all missed expectations. Overnight Japanese data better than expected, Chinese data mixed (both close until Wednesday).

JPY under 109.00 at 108.75 (PP), Cable at 1.3945 (PP) and AUD rejected 0.7800 yesterday trades at 0.7775 (PP)

USOIL at 6- week high peaked at 65.00, Gold –65.00,Gold–1770 following volatile session (highs 1790, lows 1756) BTC under 53,000 on close – back to 54,300 (PP) now.

European Open – Risk aversion picked up again overnight as investors were spooked by China’s anti-trust crackdown, although the DAX future is up 0.2%, after an unexpected expansion in French GDP at the start of the session and yesterday’s underperformance. The FTSE 100 future is down -0.2% and U.S. futures are also in the red, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ underperforming and down -0.4%.

Today – German GDP (Flash), EZ CPI (Flash) & GDP (Prelim), US PCE & Chicago PMI, Fed’s Kaplan. Earnings from Exxon, Chevron, Phillips 66, AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive, AstraZeneca, Barclays, BBVA, BNP, Eni



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.20%) rejected 1.5600 again yesterday moved under 50- and 20-hr MA and Daily PP. Next support 200-hr MA & S1 at 1.5550. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 47 & cooling , MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower but remain above 0 line. Stochs rising. H1 ATR 0.0014, Daily ATR 0.0056.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 3rd May 2021.

Market Update – May 3.

 Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Market News Today – A month-end bid, and rotation out of equities has supported!

Covid continues to wreak havoc in parts of Asia, and will keep investors nervous again this week, as India deals with a firestorm of new cases (the highest daily cases anywhere in the world) and rising deaths. Additionally, parts of Japan remain under a state of emergency with restrictions in areas including Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto. Japan will be on Golden Week holidays Monday through Wednesday, and there are no top-tier data releases for the remainder of the week. China’s April trade report is due at the end of the week. The quiet session in Asia impacted trading in Europe today, with the UK still on an extended weekend break. GER30 futures are fractionally higher at the moment, and US futures are outperforming, although the tech heavy USA100 future is struggling amid lingering concern over China’s anti-trust crackdown, that also saw the Hang Seng selling off again. Inflation developments and lingering tapering fears will also be on markets’ minds as the BoE meeting comes into view. Elsewhere, CPI data from around the globe, along with the usual mix of growth, trade, retail sales and US NFP. For central banks, the RBA, BoJ and BoE meet, though no changes are expected. German retail sales jumped 7.7% m/m in March.

In FX markets, the Yen and US Dollar retreated and USDJPY lifted to 109.62, while the USDIndex jumped to 91.40. The US Dollar strengthened as risk trades slipped further. USOIL meanwhile dropped back to $62.90 per barrel. Ethereum has hit a fresh record high, following news of a potential digital bond sale on the ethereum blockchain.

Today – The calendar today includes the final readings for Eurozone April manufacturing PMIs, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Fed Chairman Powell’s speech. Earnings season continues with reports from Estee Lauder, Enterprise Products, Alexion Pharmaceuticals, WEC Energy, Williams Companies, ON Semi, SolarEdge, Loews Corp., Diamondback Energy, Chegg, and Apollo Global Management. The Treasury will outline its Q2 and Q3 borrowing projections.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ 07:30 GMT (+0.37%) – NZDJPY reversed Friday’s losses and extended to 78.65. The overall outlook remains positive, while in the 1-hour chart, momentum is rising higher with fast MAs aligned higher, while RSI is breaking above 50 with MACD extending northwards but remains below 0. ATR (H1) at 0.1104 & ATR (D) at 0.6449.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 4th May 2021.

Market update – Shares edging higher.


Market News Today – Treasuries kicked off May with modest gains, correcting from the losses to end April. Caution ruled as Covid problems remain worries, especially with the spike in India. Wall Street was led by the USA30‘s 0.7% rally, with the USA500 up 0.27%, though the USA100 slipped -0.48% lower, as tech stocks were under pressure. Comments from Fed Chair Powell suggesting that the economic recovery remains patchy helped to boost Treasuries yesterday, but bonds traded mixed overnight. Australia markets outperformed, but yields have come back from lows after the RBA left policy settings unchanged for now but upgraded its economic outlook. GER30 and UK100 futures meanwhile are down -0.1% and up 0.3% respectively, the latter in catch up mode as UK markets return from the extended bank holiday weekend. Trading conditions remained quiet, with China and Japan still on holiday.

In FX markets, the US Dollar strengthened across the board and USDJPY lifted to 109.33. Both EUR and GBP dropped against a largely stronger USD and also speculations on BoE. Analysts reckon the bank might announce a slowdown in its bond buying programme as vaccinations have bolstered Britain’s economy. Ethereum is at 160% above the 200-day MA, breaking 3,500. USOIL[/B] meanwhile spiked to3,500.USOIL[/B]meanwhilespikedto64.35 per barrel, as more US states eased lockdowns and the European Union sought to attract travellers. The weaker-than-expected US data stoked concerns over recovery and limited losses for the safe-haven metal. Gold is down at $1,785, after hitting its highest since Feb. 25 at 1797.

Today – Data releases in Europe today focus on the final UK manufacturing PMI for April as well as consumer credit growth ahead of the BoE announcement on Thursday.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ 07:30 GMT – USDRUB turned 0.44% lower, breaking the 20-period SMA. The MAs aligned lower while RSI is at 43 and pointing lower and MACD is below signal line, suggesting decreasing positive bias. ATR (H1) at 0.24544 & ATR (D) at 0.90351.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 5th May 2021.

Market Update – May 5 – Yellen finesses comments.


Market News Today – USD continues its May recovery (USDIndex holds over 91.00), Equities closed lower (Nasdaq shed 1.88%). Mrs. Yellen spooked the market and then toned down her interest rate rise/inflation comments. The Fed’s Kaplan and Allianz’s Al El-Erian also talk up “non-transitory” nature of the inflation threat. Yields cooled on USD advance, fell to 1.55% before moving 1.59%. Overnight Good jobs data from NZD and Housing data from AUD lift the antipodean pair. Japan, China and South Korea still closed.

EUR – down to test 1.2000 zone, JPY holds over 109.00 at 109.40, Cable rotates around 1.3900. AUD has support at 0.7700 and CAD still rotates through 1.2300

USOIL at 38-day high peaked at 66.00, Gold –66.00,Gold–1776 following a volatile session (highs 1798, lows1798,lows1770) Commodities remain robust. BTC back to test $55,000(PP).

European Open – The rout in tech stocks that hit markets yesterday has eased somewhat and US futures are moving higher – DAX and FTSE 100 futures are also sought. Comments from US Treasury Secretary Yellen yesterday reminded markets that with economies strengthening as fiscal stimulus picks up it is not a question of if, but when central banks will take the foot off the accelerator. Official rates may remain low for a while to come, but when asset purchases are reigned in, the long end will suffer. Stocks meanwhile may continue to see rotations out of companies that benefited from stay home orders to cyclicals. With the DAX closing below the 15000 mark yesterday there is room to the downside.

Today – Eurozone & US services & composite PMIs, ISM services PMI, ADP Employment, Oil Inventories, Fed’s Evans, Rosengren, Mester, ECB’s Lane, Earnings from GM, Barrick Gold, Maersk, Deutsche Post, Uber, PayPal & Hilton Hotels.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.27%) rallied from 6-day low yesterday (77.70) over 78.00. Today, PP at 78.07 and R1 at 78.50. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 53 & neutral, MACD histogram over 0 line & signal line aligned higher but under 0 line. Stochs cooling to neutral. H1 ATR 0.1065, Daily ATR 0.6200.

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.27%) rallied from 6-day low yesterday (77.70) over 78.00. Today, PP at 78.07 and R1 at 78.50. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 53 & neutral, MACD histogram over 0 line & signal line aligned higher but under 0 line. Stochs cooling to neutral. H1 ATR 0.1065, Daily ATR 0.6200.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 6th May 2021.

Market Update – May 6 – GBP in focus ahead of BoE & Elections.


Market News Today – USD consolidates, (USDIndex holds PP at 91.25), Equities closed mixed (new ATH for USA30, USA100 down 0.37% as rotation away from tech continues). The AUD fell over 0.5% as China said it will “indefinitely suspend” all activities under the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue. 10-yr Yields held at 1.59%. Commodities tear continues – Copper nudging 10- yr highs. German Factory orders much better than expected. Japan, China and South Korea back to work. Biden agrees to IP waiver for Covid vaccines.

EUR – down to test 1.2000 zone (again), JPY holds over 109.00 at 109.30, Cable rotates around 1.3900 ahead of BOE & Elections. AUD held support at 0.7700, back to 0.7745 now and CAD moves down from 1.2300 to 1.2250 zone.

USOIL peaked at 66.65 [/B]yesterday tested66.65[/B]yesterdaytested65.00 post inventories – back to 65.70 now Gold –65.70now[B]Gold–1794 following a test of 200hr support at 1775). Commodities remain robust. BTC back to test 1775).Commoditiesremainrobust.[B]BTC[/B]backtotest[B]58,000 yesterday at $57,000 now. Dogecoin –

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-serious-in-latest-crypto-binge?sref=uHY27eog

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 11 ticks, U.S. futures are little changed, while in cash markets the 10-year Bund yield is up 1.1 bp at 1.58%. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently up 0.01% and 0.13% respectively, U.S. futures are also posting fractional gains after a mixed session in Asia, where rising trade tensions between China and Australia weighed on local markets. Investors will be starting to look ahead to tomorrow’s U.S. jobs report, but today’s local calendar is also quite busy, with BoE and Norges Bank announcing policy, a key local election in the U.K. that could have bearing on Scotland’s relation with Westminister, and a number of data points.

Today – BoE & (Norges & CBRT) rate decisions, UK Services PMI, US Weekly Claims ECB’s de Guindos, Schnabel, BoE’s Bailey, Fed’s Williams, Kaplan, Mester. Earnings from Moderna, Rengeneron, ViacomCBS, Peloton, AB Inbev, Continental, ArcelorMittal, ING, Volkswagen, SocGen, UniCredit. Up to 48 million people to vote in UK local elections.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.18%) rallied from lows below 131.00 yesterday to test R1 at 131.35 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 55 & moving higher, MACD histogram testing 0 line & signal line aligned higher but under 0 line. Stochs risingto test OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0886, Daily ATR 0.6745.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 7th May 2021.

Market Update – May 7 – USD weaker ahead of NFP.


Market News Today – USD moves lower, (USDIndex down (0.45%) to 90.80 earlier), EUR and Sterling both bid. Equities all closed higher (new ATH for USA30, USA500 +0.82%) Financials biggest gainers. Commodities tear continues GOLD breaks $1820. 10-yr Yields slip with USD to 1.568%. Asian markets higher on strong data, from JPY (Earnings), CNY (Services PMI & the Trade Balance more than doubled) and NZD (inflation expectations).

EUR – rallied to test 1.2070, JPY holds over 109.00 at 109.15, Cable rotates around 1.3900 again after volatile BOE reaction and ahead of Election results. AUD rallied to 0.7790, and CAD moves down from 1.2300 to 1.2140 – a new 38-month low.

USOIL peaked at 66.65 [/B]on Wednesday and tested under66.65[/B]onWednesdayandtestedunder65.00 earlier. Gold – major rally to 1820 [/B]first daily close over 200-day EMA (1820[/B]firstdailycloseover200−dayEMA(1796) since mid-February. Commodities remain robust. BTC back down from test 58,000 [/B]yesterday to58,000[/B]yesterdayto56,000 now.

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is down -11 ticks on the day, underperforming versus Treasury futures, which are little changed. In cash markets the 10-year Treasury rate has dropped -0.3 bp to 1.566% overnight, despite markets positioning for a stellar US jobs report, which owes much to reassurances from major central banks that they will be patient on tapering and rates. Stock futures are moving higher, with DAX and FTSE 100 futures currently posting gains of 0.8% and 0.6% respectively. US futures are underperforming, but are also supported with a 0.3% rise in the NASDAQ leading the way.

Today – UK construction PMI, US and Canadian labour market reports, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Haldane, Broadbent, Fed’s Barkin Earnings from Adidas, BMW, Credit Agricole, IAG, Siemens.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.34%) rallied from 7-day lows below 1.7830 yesterday to test PP at 1.7900 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 53 & moving higher, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but under 0 line. Stochs rising to test OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0016, Daily ATR 0.0117.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 10th May 2021.

May 10 – GBP skyrockets, USD down, Crypto and Metals in the spotlight.


Market News Today – The overall tone in stocks remained positive through the Asian part of the session, after Wall Street shrugged off the disappointment of the US jobs report on Friday and took solace in the fact that the data will back the Fed’s dovish tone. Many Asian indices moved higher, while bonds struggled. JPN225 gained 0.4% today, the ASX more than 1% after strong business confidence data. Hang Seng and CSI 300 underperformed and corrected -0.5% and -0.8% respectively against the background of anti-trust efforts and lingering US-China tensions. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, alongside gains in US futures.

In FX markets, the US Dollar sank to a 2-month low at 90.18. The GBP rallied to a 10-week high after local elections provided a boost to PM Johnson and seemed to fend off demands for another independence referendum in Scotland. Cable is trading at 1.4062 and EURGBP at 08640. EURUSD meanwhile dropped slightly to 1.2150. USDJPY lifted to 108.98 as the Yen weakened across the board. CAD and AUD were supported. USOIL is traded at $65.36 per barrel, after a key US pipeline was forced shut by a cyber attack (Colonial Pipeline). Copper skyrocketed to 4.869.

Ethereum extended this month’s record run, surging more than 5% to an unprecedented $4,148.88. The second-biggest digital token has rallied 41% so far in May. Bitcoin rallied but remains below 60K after Elon Musk called dogecoin a “hustle” during his guest-host spot on the “Saturday Night Live” comedy sketch TV show.

Treasury supply will be a focal point this week as the 126 bln May refunding is on tap, and includes126blnMayrefundingisontap,andincludes58 bln in 3-year notes Tuesday, 41 bln in 10-year notes Wednesday, and41blnin10−yearnotesWednesday,and27 bln in 30-year bonds Thursday. Yields plunged on Friday following the jobs miss, but rebounded into the close as the market looked ahead to the upcoming supply. The wi 3-year traded 2 bps richer at 0.315% late Friday, with the wi 10-year fractionally cheaper at 1.590% and the wi 30-year 3.5 bps cheaper at 2.280%. Rates here would be the richest in two months for the 3- and 30-year maturities, and since March for the 10-year. Many of the auctions this year have shown sputtering demand, leading some to worry that demand for Treasuries is diminishing. This week’s auctions will be an interesting test, especially given richer rates alongside uncertainties over inflation, and now the job market.

Today – Virus developments remain encouraging and with central banks still providing support, it seems the recovery remains on track. Today’s data calendar is pretty quiet, but includes UK house price data.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.92%) rallied from 7-week highs at 153.30 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI crossed 70 and still points upwards, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher extending away from 0 line. Stochs rising to test OB zone. H1 ATR 0.218, Daily ATR 0.990.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 11th May 2021.

May 11 – Tech sell off & Commodities gain ahead of today’s data.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – The stock markets sold off across Asia. Inflation concerns have hit tech stocks in particular, and the rise in commodity prices has seen the 5-year break even inflation rate lifting to the highest level since 2006, according to Bloomberg calculations. China CPI climbed to a 0.9% y/y clip in April, more than double the 0.4% y/y from March. The jump in commodity prices has sparked concern over extended valuations in equities and JPN225 corrected -2.4% and -2.1% respectively. The ASX sold off -1.0% and the Hang Seng is currently down -1.8%. Mainland China bourses outperformed despite a higher than expected PPI reading that reflected surging commodity prices worldwide.

While demand for Treasuries will be supported by safe haven flows, Eurozone peripherals, which outperformed yesterday, may well feel the chill this morning. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -1.3% and -1.2% respectively and a 0.7% correction in the tech heavy USA100 is leading US futures lower.

In FX markets, the USDJPY is little changed at 108.95, with the US Dollar and Yen both struggling. Cable stabilised at high levels after yesterday’s surge – currently at 1.4124, as the UK BRC retail sales figures confirmed a surge in demand as the country continues to re-open. EURUSD meanwhile lifted to 1.2143. USOIL eased back to $64.33, as traders keep a wary eye on the impact of the cyber attack that led to pipeline closures.

Today – Today’s data calendar has German ZEW investor confidence, which is expected to move higher.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURCHF (+0.66%) reversed more than 40% of its 3-day decline from 7-week highs at 153.30 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, but RSI is close to 50 and MACD histogram & signal line remain well below zero even though they are presenting decreasing negative bias. The intraday positive bias remains limited. H1 ATR 0.0006, Daily ATR 0.0038.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 12th May 2021.

Market Update – May 12 – Inflation day.
 

Market News Today – Fears over rising inflation weighed on both stocks and bonds, with equities bearing the brunt of the pressure. The broader indexes were the underperformers with the USA30 dropping -1.9% and the USA100 was down sharply too, off nearly -2%. Today, GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.3% and -0.2% respectively. The rout in tech stocks in particular continued to see wider markets selling off overnight, and European bourses are likely to continue to struggle ahead of key US inflation data later today. Treasuries were heavy too, led by the long end amid the inflation threat. Yields have spiked in Australia and New Zealand, after some warnings that Australia could lose its AAA rating.

Inflation fears have made a comeback although the sell off in equities seems to be abating somewhat, likely also thanks to ongoing verbal support from central banks, which continue to see the current spike in inflation as transitory. There was a plethora of Fedspeak and all concurred it was not the time to discuss tapering, while suggesting the disappointing jobs report was likely due to other issues aside from unemployment benefits.

In FX markets, the USD strengthened and USDJPY lifted to 108.89. AUD and NZD are broadly lower. Cable eased at high levels currently at 1.4130, EURUSD sustains support at 1.2115 for a 3rd day. USOIL stabilised at the $65 area.

Today – Today’s US inflation reading aside, the local calendar confirmed German HICP inflation at 2.1% largely thanks to base effects from energy prices. UK GDP for Q1 came in a tad better than feared, with the quarterly rate showing a contraction of -1.5% q/q, largely due to lockdown measures.
 

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.37%) broke 20- and 50-day SMA, spiking to 1.5562 high so far. Faster MAs stabilised and are flattened currently, as RSI after the 70 high is pulling back despite the bullish bias in the MACD histogram. Hence the intraday indicators suggest the end of the rally for the time being. H1 ATR 0.00185, Daily ATR 0.00911.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 13th May 2021.

Market Update – May 13 – Inflation jump keeps trading nervous.


Market News Today –Despite warnings from policymakers, the jump in prices will keep trading nervous. Central bank officials remain adamant that the inflation overshoot that will likely be mirrored in the UK and if not the Eurozone then Germany, is mainly due to base effects and should be transitory, but stocks at least are not so convinced. The surge in April CPI weighed heavily on Treasuries and the jump in yields knocked Wall Street sharply lower. The spike in CPI stole the show this week, though the Fed and indeed global monetary authorities have warned about rising inflationary pressures, the 0.8% jump in the headline and 0.9% surge in the core elicited heavy selling.

Wall Street is on its heels with the USA100 falling -2.67% and the USA500 and USA30 tumbling -2.14% and -1.99%, respectively. The Treasury’s 10-year auction was very well bid, though at the highest yield in over a year. Bond markets across Asia sold off in catch up trade.

BoJ’s Kuroda joined the chorus of central bank officials playing down the spike in inflation as mainly due to base effects, but that didn’t prevent a further sell off in Asian stock markets. Asian equity markets remained under pressure after the sell off on Wall Street yesterday and European stock futures are also lower, with GER30 and UK100 down -0.6% and -0.8% respectively in catch up trade, after still closing higher on Wednesday.

In FX markets, the USDJPY is little changed at 109.68. AUD and NZD underperformed. EURUSD and Cable are little changed at currently 1.2074 and 1.4055 respectively. USOIL is at the $65.37 area. Bitcoin slumped and then recovered somewhat, after Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla Inc has suspended vehicle purchases using the digital currency due to environmental concerns.

Today – Scandi and Swiss markets are closed and many countries are either celebrating Ascension Day or end end of Ramadan, which will likely make for quiet trading conditions. On tap we have US Jobless Claims and speeches from BoC Macklem and BoE Bailey.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.29%) spiked higher above R1 breaking the upper BB line and retesting the nearly 3-months Resistance, at 1.5700. Intraday the MAs aligned higher while RSI is at 71 but flattened and MACD is also positively configured suggesting a positive to neutral outlook. ATR (H1) at 0.00231 & ATR (D) at 0.00993.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 17th May 2021.

Market Update – May 17 – USD lifts, Gold rallies, BTC Sinks.



Market News Today – USD remains weak (USDIndex down to 90.27). Equities all closed higher (US100 biggest gainer up 2.32%), 457 of USA500 have reported earnings and 87% have beat expectations. Futs. softer today. Commodities tear continues, GOLD breaks 1850. 10-yr Yields slip with USD to 1.62% from 1.70% last week. BTC bombed 12% before recovering, Musk suggested Tesla selling some or all of1850.[B]10−yrYields[/B]slipwithUSDto1.621.5b investment (later denied). Asian markets mixed on mixed Chinese data, (Retail Sales missed significantly, Ind. Output in line, Unemployment improved.)

This week – Economic data slim, Earnings from Walmart, Home Depot, Target, Lowes and Cisco.

EUR – down a tad to 1.2135, JPY holds over 109.00 down to 109.20, Cable holds over 1.4100 AUD holds 0.7760 and CAD holds 1.2100

USOIL back over 65.00 [/B]from lows at65.00[/B]fromlowsat[B]63.00 on Thursday, Gold – rallied to 3 mth high 1855 Commodities remain robust. BTC down to test under 1855[/B]Commoditiesremainrobust.[B]BTC[/B]downtotestunder[B]42,000, back to $44,000 now.

European Open – Futures are also mixed, with US indices in the red, while DAX and FTSE 100 futures are both up 0.1%. The UK is taking another step towards a full re-opening of the economy today, but amid warnings of caution against the background of new virus variants. In the Eurozone, restrictions vary considerably across countries, with some already at the level of openness that the UK is now going back to. In FX markets both EUR and GBP eased against a largely stronger Dollar earlier, only to improve as the session opened. Data releases today remain thin on the ground, with only the final reading for Italian HICP numbers of note.

Today – US NY Fed Manufacturing, BoE’s Haldane, Vlieghe, Tenreyro, Fed’s Bostic, Clarida, Kaplan Earnings from RyanAir & Advanced Auto Parts.




Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.50%) rallied from 5-day lows below 1.9420 on close to test 1.9550 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 61 & moving higher, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and testing 0 line. Stochs rising and OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0024, Daily ATR 0.0155.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM]

Date : 19th May 2021.

Market Update – May 19 – USD & Equities weak, BTC Slumps.


Market News Today – USD remains weak and cannot catch a bid at the moment. USDIndex down to 89.67. Equities closed down -0.85%, with significant fall in final hour; USA500 4127, despite robust earnings from Walmart & Home Depot. Housing data disappointed. VIX spiked 7.6% to 22.75. Asian markets follow lower. GOLD tested key $1875 level, USOil under $65.00. 10-yr Yields holds at 1.64% despite USD weakness. BTC tumbles under $40,000 on Chinese regulation. Overnight – NZD PPI better than expected, AUD Industrial Production misses. UK CPI – inline at 1.5% (although RPI & PPI stronger).

This week – Economic data slim, FOMC Minutes, Earnings from Walmart (Beat), Vodafone (in-line), Home Depot (beat), still to come today – Target, Lowes and Cisco.

EUR – up and holds over 1.2200 at 3-mth highs 1.2240, JPY struggles and slips under 109.00, Cable rallied to 1.4220 highs yesterday, back under 1.4200 now. AUD back under 0.7800, CAD up from 6-year lows at 1.2012 to 1.2065, and NZD (yesterdays best performer) at 0.7230 from 0.7270)

USOIL edges back to $65.00, Gold – rallied to 3.5 mth high to test key resistance at $1875, trades at $1873. Commodities remain robust. BTC sank under $40,000, (& Ether lost 13% to $2,900) after “China banned its financial institutions from offering cryptocurrency registration, trading, clearing, and settlement in a blow to investors who were betting that digital assets will gain mainstream status.” Reuters. VIX again the largest mover UP 7.60% over 22.60 at 4-day highs.

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is fractionally lower, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury yield is currently up 0.3 bp at 1.64%. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.98% and -0.99% respectively, underperforming versus U.S. futures, which are also in the red, however, after a largely weaker session across Asia overnight. Inflation concerns remain in focus and markets will be watch out for the FOMC minutes today, although the last meeting was conducted ahead of the latest data release.

Today – EZ final CPI, Canadian CPI, FOMC Minutes, ECB’s Panetta, Rehn, Lane, Fed’s Bullard, Bostic. Earnings from Lowe’s, Target, Cisco, L Brands, & Analog Devices.



Biggest Mover @ (07:30 GMT) VIX.F (+7.60%) rallied from under 19.00, yesterday to 22.75 now. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 67 & moving higher, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher having broke 0 line into close yesterday. Stochs rising and in OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.57, Daily ATR 2.45.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

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