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HFM · January 7, 2019

Date : 7th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th January 2019.

The Economic week ahead

Increased year-end volatility took a breather to kick off the first trading week of 2019. But after a streak of market pessimism with the major indices flirting with bear market losses, it would appear that upside surprise risks have prevailed for now.

This welcome turn of events was anchored by the “remarkably strong” jobs report that contradicted the financial markets’ worst fears about the deterioration of the economy that had virtually priced out further Fed rate hikes and even flagged risk of a rate cut by year end.

United States: US data on inflation and the ISM-NMI will be the focus in the week of January 7. However, due to the government shutdown, several of this week’s other releases may be delayed, including trade, factory orders, wholesale trade, construction spending, new home sales, and the advance indicators.

The Highlight is inflation, as that will be one of the prime movers of Fed policy going forward. Also key will be the ISM-NMI for the most up-to-date reading on the service sector. The NFIB small business optimism index is on tap (Tuesday), along with November JOLTS job openings (Tuesday), as well as consumer credit, seen rising $16 bln in November, compared to $25.4 bln in October. MBA mortgage market data arrives (Wednesday). Initial jobless claims (Thursday) are estimated to rise 5k to 236k in the week ended January 5 (Thursday), after climbing 10k to 231k in the week of December 29. The data are likely to be distorted by the government shutdown, along with the typical difficulty in holiday seasonal adjustments. The Treasury budget (Friday) may post a surplus of $5.0 bln in December, relative to a -$204.9 bln deficit in November.

Meanwhile, the rest of the economic calendar will be subject to the government shutdown. November factory orders (originally set for Monday) should post a 0.2% decline, with a flat reading for inventories. The November trade deficit (originally Tuesday) is expected to narrow to -$51.6 bln from -$55.5 bln. Wholesale inventories (originally Thursday) are seen falling 0.2% in November.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Powell will make another appearance this week before the Economic Club of Washington (Thursday), though there will be no text, only a moderated Q&A, no doubt reiterating the “patience and flexibility” formula that helped propel stocks higher Friday. The week rounds out (Thursday) with Richmond’s Barkin, Chicago’s Evans, St. Louis Fed’s Bullard and VC Clarida. The FOMC minutes (Wednesday) will be of interest, as the Fed hiked rates.

Canada: The BoC’s policy announcement (Wednesday) is the highlight this week. No change to the current 1.75% setting is expected for the policy interest rate amid a slowing economy, moderating inflation pressures and the hefty downside risk posed by weak oil prices to real sector growth.

Economic data has the November trade report (Tuesday) expected to reveal a -C$2.0 bln deficit in November from the -C$1.2 bln shortfall in October. Housing Starts (Wednesday) are seen falling to a 205.0k unit pace in December from 216.0k in November. Building Permit Values (Thursday) are projected to slip 0.5% in November after the 0.2% dip in October. The New Housing Price Index (Thursday) is anticipated to decline 0.1% in November (m/m, sa) after the flat readings in August, September and October. The December Ivey PMI is due Monday.

Europe: The ECB’s account of the last policy meeting (Thursday) is likely to reflect growing unease and there will have been broad support for the decision to phase out net asset purchases. The minutes aside, there is also ECBspeak from Villeroy (Thursday) and Mersch (Friday), who are likely to back the central bank’s official line.

The data calendar is busy and should support expectations for slowing economic momentum as global trade tensions and Brexit risks cloud over the outlook. The German November manufacturing orders (Monday) are seen falling -0.2% m/m, while industrial production (Tuesday) is seen rising a modest 0.3% m/m with a solid stock of orders still underpinning activity for now. Export growth is likely to have eased in November, but lower import prices should have helped to underpin the nominal trade balance which we expect to report a sa surplus of EUR 18.0 bln.

So far the labour market continues to improve as companies have a solid stock of orders to fill and an unchanged November unemployment rate is expected (Wednesday) of 8.1%. Improving labour markets and Black Friday sales, meanwhile are expected to have underpinned German and Eurozone retail sales (both Monday), which are seen up 0.4% m/m and 0.2% m/m respectively.

UK: The UK’s data calendar is relatively quiet, highlighted by November production data and monthly GDP data (Friday). The industrial output should recoup 0.2% m/m after dropping 0.6% m/m in October, while the y/y figure should come in at -0.7%. The BRC retail sales report for December will also be released (Thursday), which should affirm a robust holiday sales tally.

Japan: December Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) is seen dipping further to 42.5 from 42.9. The November Current Account surplus (Friday) should narrow to JPY 700 bln from 1,309 bln. December bank loan figures are also due Friday.

The China inflation data headline may show some further easing due to the drop in oil prices. December CPI (Thursday) is penciled in at a 2.0% y/y pace from 2.2% in November and 2.5% in September and October. December PPI (Thursday) is forecast at a 1.7% y/y rate from 2.7%. December loan growth and new Yuan loans are tentatively due Thursday, with the latter seen up CNY 800.0 bln from the prior CNY 1,250.0 bln increase.

Australia: The trade report (Tuesday) is seen revealing a widening in the surplus to A$2.5 bln in November from A$2.3 bln in October. Building approvals (Wednesday) are expected to fall 2.0% in November after the 1.5% decline in October. Retail sales (Friday) are projected to rise 0.2% in November after the 0.3% gain in October.

New Zealand: The next RBNZ meeting is February 13, 2019, in which no change to the current 1.75% setting for the OCR anticipated.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · January 8, 2019

Date : 8th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th January 2019.

FX News Today

USDJPY has posted a six-day high at 109.00. Yen crosses have also remained buoyant amid a backstop of re-established risk appetite in global markets, in turn feeding an outperforming bid in Japanese equity markets, while the Dollar has concurrently firmed up a tad against most currencies after descending yesterday.
10-year Treasury yields are down -1.1 bp at 2.685% while 10-year JGB yields rose 1.8 bp to -0.08%.
Asian bond as well as stock markets traded mixed, as the focus remains on US-China trade talks.
A weaker Yen helped Japanese markets to outperform and Topix and Nikkei are up 0.39% and 0.82% respectively. The Hang Seng meanwhile is unchanged, CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.23% and -0.30% respectively, while the ASX closed with a gain of 0.69% and US and European stock futures are also moving higher. The front end WTI future is trading at USD 48.54 per barrel.
Markets look a little less committed presently, wanting specifics from the ongoing US-China trade talks and a break in the partial government shutdown, the consequences of which are becoming more evident as time ticks on.
The Trump administration expressed optimism of a “reasonable” deal and news that China dispatched one of Xi’s top aids to the low level negotiations in Beijing underpinned hopes of progress. The US Secretary of Commerce said yesterday that a deal can be reached that “we can live with.”
Meanwhile US President Trump’s TV address today will be watched closely with investors hoping for clues on the possible end to the government shutdown.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

EU Business Climate Indicator – Business Climate is expected to have decreased to 0.99 in December, compared to 1.09 in November.
US Trade Balance – Although less important than in other countries, the US trade balance still provides important information about the supply of Dollars in the world as well as the state of the US economy. In November, the trade deficit is expected to have stood at $54 billion, compared to $55.5 billion in October.
Canadian Trade Balance – The Canadian trade deficit is expected to have increased to $1.95 billion, compared to $1.17 billion in October.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · January 9, 2019

Date : 9th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th January 2019.

FX News Today

USDJPY retested 109.00 but has so far left yesterday’s one-week peak at 109.08 untroubled. Yen crosses have remained buoyant amid a backdrop of firm global equity markets.
EURJPY and AUDJPY, meanwhile, have posted fresh one-week and 11-day highs, respectively.
Topix and Nikkei are both up 1.1%, the Hang Seng rallied 2.4%, the CSI 300 1.68% and the ASX 0.98%.
Hopes for a breakthrough in the US-China trade standoff continue to run high. Both sides agreed to extend talks into an unscheduled third day amid reports of progress on the issues of Chinese imports of US goods and increased access to Chinese markets, and Bloomberg cited sources reporting that President Trump, who tweeted that “talks are going very well,” is now eager to strike a deal.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific (ex-Japan) Index has gained over 1.5%, reaching a 26-day high. The S&P 500 closed on Wall Street yesterday with a 0.97% gain, and S&P 500 futures are showing a 0.4% advance in overnight trading.
After the soothing words from Powell last week markets will get the Fed minutes to digest today, but for now the mood in stocks is perky, with short coverings on the riskier assets underpinning the move higher and Hang Seng and mainland China bourses, which underperformed yesterday, outperformed today.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

Swiss CPI – Swiss inflation is expected to come out slightly lower than last month on a y/y basis, standing at 0.8% in December, compared to 0.9% in November.
EU Unemployment Rate – The Euro Area unemployment rate is expected to have been 8.1% in November, the same as in October.
BoC Interest Rate Decision – No change is expected in the BoC meeting despite the US rate hike in December, given the not-so-great data releases in December and early January.
FOMC Minutes – Fed minutes are expected to shed more light on the policymakers’ mindset, especially regarding their thoughts on the US macroeconomic outlook.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · January 10, 2019

Date : 10th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th January 2019.

FX News Today

Dovish leaning Fed speakers and minutes yesterday continue to underpin Treasuries.
Bonds got support from reduced risk appetite.
FOMC minutes: could afford to be patient, with inflation low;downside risks may have increased, the timing of future rate hikes as less clear.
Trade talks between the US and China may have ended on an optimistic note, but traders fear that it could drag on for a long while. Nikkei lost -1.29% – Yen strengthened.
Talks in the US to end the partial government shutdown collapsed.
USDJPY reversed to 107.80 low from 109.0; EURUSD surged to 1.1559 high
Solid session for Canadian stocks, tracking the bullishness around the world.
GoC yields moved modestly higher as BoC delivered the as-expected steady rate announcement while reiterating rates will need to go higher “over time.”
USDCAD slipped to nearly the 1.3200 level.
WTI crude rallied 5% to $52.5 bbl despite mild EIA crude draw, product builds.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Minutes – Expectations – The ECB’s account is likely to reflect growing unease and while there will have been broad support for the decision to phase out net asset purchases, it is expected that even the hawks were not pushing for further exit steps just yet.
US Initial jobless claims – Expectations – Initial jobless claims are estimated to rise 5k to 236k in the week ended January 5, after climbing 10k to 231k in the week of December 29.
Canadian Housing data – Expectations – Building permit values are projected to slip 0.5% in November, while the new housing price index is anticipated to decline 0.1% in November after the flat readings the past 3 months.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech at 17:00 GMT.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · January 11, 2019

Date : 11th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th January 2019.

FX News Today

Fed officials continue to pledge patience after Fed Chair Powell noted the balance sheet will be “substantially smaller”.
ECB minutes confirmed decision to end QE was unanimous.
- On the growth risks, there seems to have been a debate on the impact of weaker confidence indicators, with some mixed views.
The Central banks are increasingly wary of downside risks and their cautious messages support both stock and bond markets.
US equities stumbled after trade talks ended with few details for all the prior rejoicing, while a handful of year-end stumbles in the retail sector were noteworthy.
European stock futures are moving higher, after a largely positive session in Asia overnight.
US futures are also clawing back overnight losses with cautious comments from Fed and ECB officials supporting both bond and stock markets.
WTI crude is holding gains and trading at USD 52.56 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

UK Manufacturing & Industrial Production – Expectations –Industrial output is expected to have recouped 0.2% m/m after dropping 0.6% m/m in October, while the y/y figure should come in at -0.7%. Manufacturing production should rise to 0.3% m/m, after the fall to 0.9% last month due mainly to weakness from transport equipment.

US CPI and Core – Expectations – It is widely anticipated that we will see an energy-depressed -0.1% reading for headline CPI in December, but a warmer 0.2% gain for core prices.

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · January 15, 2019

Date : 15th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th January 2019.

FX News Today

Risk appetite picked up during the Asian session amid further confirmation from Chinese officials that they will implement measures to boost the flagging economy.
Equities recovered as China pledges to support growth.
Brexit: The most important day so far, with Parliament set to reject the government’s deal.
GBPUSD whipsawed by Brexit vote news; first backed, then undermined.
Yen has outperformed as global stocks tumble on big China trade data miss.
EURUSD ebbed to 5-day low at 1.1437, before rebounding to 1.1485.
Oil prices stabilised and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 51.23 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

US PPI and Core – Expectations – December headline PPI is forecast dipping 0.1%, while the core rises 0.1%.
ECB President Draghi Speech – Draghi will probably strike a cautious tone and acknowledge that the balance of risks is starting to shift to the downside.
Parliament Brexit Vote- Expectations –There seems be neither an agreement on PM May’s deal, nor on any of the feasible alternatives. And reportedly, EU officials who are not keen on a hard Brexit scenario are open to a 3-month extension to the Brexit schedule. See our Brexit Vote summary.

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · January 16, 2019

Date : 16th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th January 2019.

FX News Today

Brexit: A crushing defeat of May’s Brexit deal yesterday, brings new uncertainty about the political future in Europe. The odds for delay and/or new referendum are higher.
GBP bounced: Cable has advanced to the 1.2889 level, up from just under 1.2700 ahead of the vote.
China injected $51.6 bln via reverse repo operations – The biggest daily net cash injection from China’s central bank on record.
Japanese markets underperformed and Nikkei was down -0.55%.
Yen weaker amid risk-back-on sentiment
Oil prices are also up and the front end WTI future is trading at $52.26 per barrel.
German Dec HICP inflation confirmed at 1.7% y/y, leaving 2018 HICP at 1.9%

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

BoE’s Governor Carney speech – Draghi will probably strike a cautious tone and acknowledge that the balance of risks is starting to shift to the downside.
UK Retail Price Index and Inflation – Expectations –The headline CPI is expected to come in unchanged at 1.8% y/y and December Retail Price Index, which we expect to rise by 0.5% after falling in November.
UK PPI and Core – Expectations –December headline PPI is forecast dipping 2.1% y/y, while the core is expected unchanged at 0.2%.
PM May’s Leadership Challenge – Conservative Party lawmakers will hold voting to express confidence in the PM May Government.

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · January 17, 2019

Date : 17th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th January 2019.

FX News Today

UK PM May survived no-confidence vote by 325 to 306. GBP stalled below $1.29.
EU officials have signalled some willingness for further talks and to an extension of the Brexit deadline.
Stock markets have moved down from session highs, as caution still prevails amid the multitude of risks:Earnings season ( even if its good so far) , concerns over US-Sino tensions, slowing world growth, while Brexitdevelopments remain the key focus in Europe.
Fed’s Beige Book: expansion still moderate, but all districts reported tight labor.
USDJPY scaled to 1-wk high at 109.19; EURUSD has been narrowly orbiting 1.14.
WTI future pulled back from a session high of $52.36 and is trading at USD 51.95 per barrel, with record high crude production in the US keeping a lid on prices.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone’s Final CPI and Core – Expectations – Overall Eurozone HICP should be stable at 1.6% y/y, unchanged from the preliminary report and down from 1.9% y/y in November.

US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Expectations – The Philly Fed index is seen rebounding to 10.0 in January, after December’s 3.5 point slide to a 2-year low of 9.4.

US Unemployment Claims – Expectations – Initial jobless claims are estimated inching up 1k to 217k in the week ended January

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · January 18, 2019

Date : 18th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th January 2019.

FX News Today

Treasury yields jumped and global stock markets rallied on fresh hopes of progress in US-Sino trade talks.
WSJ reported that the US is weighing lifting tariffs to hasten a trade deal and calm markets.
Topix and Nikkei are up 0.93% and 1.29% respectively. GER30 and UK100futures also moved higher in tandem with US futures.
US Equities also surged on Morgan Stanley earnings miss.
USDJPY popped to better than 2-week highs of 109.40. USDCAD fell sharply to 1.3246 from over 1.3300.
Swiss Franc down vs most currencies, following dovish remarks by SNB’s Jordan – “too early for a change” as he mentioned.
Global trade developments and, in Europe, Brexit developments, remain in focus.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

UK Retail Sales – Expectations – December retail sales are expected to decline by 0.7% (median -0.5%) after rising 1.4% in November.

US Industrial Production & Prelim UoM – Expectations – Industrial Production is seen rising another 0.3% in December after a solid 0.6% gain in November. Preliminary January Michigan sentiment should decline to 96.0 after the surprise increase to 98.3 in December.

Canadian CPI and core – Expectations – A 0.3% m/m drop in CPI during December is anticipated, after the 0.4% plunge in November, with weaker gasoline prices again projected to fuel the decline. The core CPI measures all ran at 1.9% y/y in November, while inflation should either hold at those rates or tick lower.

Fedspeak: NY Fed’s Williams (permanent voter) gives his views on policy and the economy. Philly Fed’s Harker (nonvoter) speaks at a symposium on prosperity.

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · January 21, 2019

Date : 21st January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st January 2019.

FX News Today

Asian stock markets managed to post modest gains, despite the confirmation of the slowdown in Chinese GDP growth to 6.4% y/y, which left the full year rate at 6.6%.
Topix and Nikkei are up 0.56% and 0.26% respectively, and the Hang Seng gained 0.27%, while the CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are both up 0.5%.
Hope that trade tensions will eventually be resolved in talks continues to underpin sentiment, with some room for further gains after markets priced in quite extreme risks at the end of last year.
Reports from Friday indicate that China is planning to ramp up purchases of US goods although a Bloomberg report suggests that both sides are making little progress on the key issue of intellectual property protection.
All of these dampened the move higher in Asia and saw US futures heading south.
The front end Nymex future is trading at USD 53.99 per barrel after reaching a session high of USD 54.17.
There is a US Bank Holiday today, with emphasis turned to Sterling.

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · January 22, 2019

Date : 22nd January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd January 2019.

FX News Today

A gloomy IMF outlook: Forecasts for major economies revived recession fears globally and saw risk aversion picking up again.
The IMF warned that the Sino-US trade war, a “no-deal” Brexit and a weakening European economycould lead to a sharp global slowdown.
Topix and Nikkei lost -0.63% and -0.47% respectively.
President Trump calling on China to stop “playing around” and do a “real” trade deal -Added to the negative backdrop for markets.
The Earnings season is also in full swing and reports from UBS this morning disappointed and only added to lingering risk aversion.
USDJPY edged out 2-session low under 109.40; Yen firmer amid risk-off vibe.
EURUSD ebbed to 18-day lows below 1.1350, driven by firming in the Dollar.
WTI Oil prices back under $54.0 after hitting 7-week high yesterday at $54.39.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y – Expectations – Average weekly earnings are expected to remain perky in the three months to November, expected at +3.3% y/y in both the with- and ex-bonus figures.

UK Unemployment Rate – Expectations – Unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment– Expectations – Seen falling back to -18.3 from -17.5.

Canadian Manufacturing & Wholesale Sales – Expectations – Manufacturing shipment values are expected to drop 1.0% m/m in November after the 0.1% dip in October. Wholesale shipment values are seen falling 0.5% m/m in November after jumping 1.0% in October.

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · January 23, 2019

Date : 23rd January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd January 2019.

FX News Today

10-year Treasury yields are down from overnight highs, but still up 0.7 bp at 2.746%, and 10-year JGB yields climbed 0.8 bp to -0.004%.
Stock markets remained cautious during the Asian session.
The Bank of Japan held policy steady, as expected, while further reducing its outlook for inflation. The resulting weakness in the Yen didn’t help stock markets and Topix and Nikkei dropped -0.60% and -0.14% respectively.
The Hang Seng is also down -0.04%, despite mainland China markets initially moving higher as China’s central bank pumped liquidity into the banking system once again. Still, the measures are also a sign that officials are nervous about the slowdown in the economy and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.24% and -0.13%. The bank offered around 258 bln Yuan (USD 38 bln) to banks through its medium term lending tool.
Markets continue to question the progress in the US-Sino trade talks, even though White House adviser Lawrence Kudlow said that the trade talks are still on and the story about cancelled preparatory meetings was “not true, there was never any meeting. We are moving toward negotiations.” The negotiations next week will be “very, very important” and “determinative”.
Meanwhile, there are the first signs of a possible way out of the US government shutdown.
Markets remain easily spooked, but appear to have already priced in a lot of risk last year and US stock futures are moving higher after yesterday’s sell off. Oil prices are trading at USD 53.27 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

Canadian Retail Sales – After Wholesale Sales plummeted yesterday, Canadian Retail Sales are expected to have also declined by 0.4% m/m, with core Retail Sales (ex autos) expected to have declined by 0.6%.

World Economic Forum at Davos –The second day of the WEF annual meetings held in Davos and attended by officials from over 90 countries. Comments from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility.

Richmond Manufacturing Index – Expectations – The index is expected to have remained at a sub-zero level, standing at -2 after the -8 in the December release.

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · January 24, 2019

Date : 24th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th January 2019.

FX News Today

10-year Bund yields are down -0.6 bp at 0.216% in opening trade. Treasury yields also fell back from overnight highs and are now down -0.2 bp at 2.739%, while JGB yields remain up 0.8 bp at 0.001%.
Stock markets mostly managed to move higher in Asia overnight (excluding the Nikkei which closed with a loss of 0.09%) and DAX futures are also up, while US futures are narrowly mixed and the FTSE 100 future is swinging between gains and losses.
Brexit developments remain in focus, but while in the UK officials continue to struggle to find a consensus on the way forward, the focus in the Eurozone turns to the ECB meeting today.
Rates are widely expected to remain on hold and the guidance little changed, but Draghi is likely to sound much more cautious on the growth and inflation outlook, which should underpin stock markets.
Norges Bank is also expected to hold rates steady and the data calendar focuses on Eurozone PMI readings, which are expected to show further weakness in the preliminary release for January.
US earnings reports have helped to underpin risk appetite in recent days, while the ongoing government shutdown is preventing timely data releases and leaving investors focused on trade talk developments, company news and in Europe, Brexit jitters.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

EU Services, Manufacturing, and Composite PMI – The Services PMI is expected to come out at 51.5 in January, compared to 51.2 in December. This is expected to have a positive impact on the Composite PMI, which is expected to rise to 51.4 compared to 51.1 in December. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to have remained at the same levels as in December.
World Economic Forum at Davos – The third day of the WEF annual meetings held in Davos and attended by officials from over 90 countries. Comments from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility.
ECB Interest Rate Decision – ECB is not expected to proceed with any changes in the interest rate yet as it is has just started evaluating the effects from the end of QE in December. However, communication could provide important information regarding the future path of policy.
US Jobless Claims – Initial Jobless Claims are expected to rise to 220k compared to 213k last week, while Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to decline slightly to 1.735M, compared to 1.737M last week.
US Services, Manufacturing, and Composite PMI – Reductions in PMIs are expected in all sectors, in conjunction with the overall perception of a slowdown in the US, and the ongoing government shutdown.

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · January 25, 2019

Date : 25th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th January 2019.

FX News Today

10-year Treasury yields are up 1.6 bp at 2.732% while JGB yields fell back -0.4 bp to -0.008%, despite broad gains on Asian stock markets overnight.
Topix and Nikkei managed gains of 0.87% and 0.97% respectively. The Hang Seng is up 1.44% and the CSI 300 1.23%. The ASX climbed 0.8%, lifted by higher commodity prices.
Earnings reports have helped to prop up market sentiment this week, despite the fact that economists and central banks are now catching up with the gloomy view on the outlook for world growth that already sent markets lower at the end of last year.
The global cyclical chip sector seems to be recovering, which is underpinning tech stocks.
US and European stock futures are also posting broad gains, suggesting an overall positive end to the week, with markets now bracing for key events next week including the continuation of US-Sino trade talks as well as the Fed meeting.
ECB’s Coeure commented that it’s too early to discuss whether ECB will hike rates this year, while adding that the central bank may have to adjust rate guidance at some point. Coeure admitted in a Bloomberg interview that the economic slowdown has surprised the central bank although he also added that the jury is still out on how persistent the slowdown will be.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count – Oil Rigs stood at 852 last week, with the number of drills highly dependent on the price of Oil.
US Monthly Budget Statement – In view of the US government shutdown, the Budget Statement in December is expected to be much lower than the previous month, at a deficit of 12 billion, compared to a deficit of 205 billion in November.
World Economic Forum at Davos – The third day of the WEF annual meetings held in Davos and attended by officials from over 90 countries. Comments from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility.
German Ifo Business Climate – Following the slowdown in the German economy, business climate is expected to decline to 100.7 compared to 101.0 in the previous month.

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · January 28, 2019

Date : 28th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th January 2019.

FX News Today

10-year Treasury yields corrected from Friday’s highs and are down -1.8 bp at 2.740%.
Stock markets in Asia initially got support from US President Trump’s agreement to a temporary end to the 35-day partial government shutdown which underpinned Wall Street on Friday.
However, Trump also threatened to resume the shutdown on Feb 15 if his demands on the financing of a border wall are not met.
Japan underperformed and Topix and Nikkei were under pressure from the off, while elsewhere gains faded during the course of the session as markets continue to fret over potential risk factors, first and foremost the US-Sino trade talks and Brexit.
Topix and Nikkei lost -0.68% and -0.60% respectively. The Hang Seng is now down -0.105 and the CSI 300 down -0.06%.
Australia is shut for a holiday and US futures are heading south.
Oil prices fell back from a session high of USD 53.64 per barrel and the front end WTI future is now at USD 53.01 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Draghi Speech (EUR, GMT 14:00) – The ECB President is due to testify at the European Parliament in Brussels.
New Zealand Trade Balance (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The New Zealand trade balance is expected to have come out in surplus area in December, compared to a deficit in November.

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · January 29, 2019

Date : 29th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th January 2019.

FX News Today

US equities turned lower after a miss by CAT and warning from Nvidia, both partly blaming the global slowdown and China in particular for their woes;yields back down.
Criminal charges in the US against Chinese telecom giant Huawei overshadow trade talks and prevent a long-awaited US-Sino deal.
Topix and Nikkei lost -0.63% and -0.47% respectively.
Brexit at complex crossroads in UK; today’s parliamentary votes may clear picture
Oil prices are higher and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 52.43 per barrel.
EURUSD recovered to clear 1.14, up from last week’s 6-wk low at 1.1289.
USDJPY came off highs, concurrently with correction in global stock markets.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

Brexit:
- A number of amendments are due to be voted today in Parliament, including ones that seek to either delay Brexit from March 29, or to legislate against there being a no-deal Brexit, or opens the way to a second referendum on EU membership.
- Parliament is also due to vote on the Prime Minister May’s Withdrawal Agreement, which lacking a concession from the EU to write-in an amendment that legally time limits the Irish backstop, or allows the UK to unilaterally withdraw from it, looks set to be rejected.
- A no-deal Brexit scenario remains a possibility, although May, while using it as a threat, will likely ultimately prevent it, as will Parliament.

US Consumer Confidence – Expectations –January consumer confidence is expected to decline further to 126.0 from a prior 5-month low of 128.1 in December, versus an 18-year high of 137.9 in October.

Japanese Retail Trade – Expectations – December retail sales are seen contracting at a -1.0% y/y from -2.2% for large retailers. Total sales are expected to slow further to a 1.0% y/y rate from 1.4% in November and 3.6% in October.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · January 30, 2019

Date : 30th January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th January 2019.

FX News Today

Stock markets traded mixed in Asia – NASDAQ is outperforming, Nikkei lost -0.52% and UK100 futures are moving higher.
No more bad news from Apple: Apple Inc.’s report of sharp growth in its services business helped to underpin sentiment,.
Brexit: UK lawmakers didn’t vote to extend the Brexit deadline. PM May heads back to Brussels to re-negotiate backstop.
EU leaders were once again quick to stress that the legal text of the withdrawal agreement is not up for discussion.
French GDP numbers held up better than expected and German GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly jumped higher.
EURUSD ebbed back to net unchanged (1.1430) after posting 2-week high at 1.1451.
USDJPY stucks in the mid-to-low 109.0s.
GBPUSD is trading near 1.3100 from 1.3190 high.
The front end WTI future is trading at USD 53.42 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

German Jan HICP – Expectations -While the German HICP rates are above the Eurozone average now, base effects from lower energy prices continue to keep the headline rate below the ECB’s 2% limit. The preliminary January reading should be at 1.8% y/y .

ADP Employment – Expectations –The January ADP Employment report should reveal a 195k gain for the month, after a 271k December gain.

FOMC – Expectations – The FOMC statement will be released at 19:00 GMT. That will be followed by Chairman Powell’s press conference, which will now be a regular affair at each meeting, although forecasts will continue to be published quarterly. No one expects any action on rates tomorrow (including IOER). We expect the statement to include the new watchword “patient,” along with “flexible,” with the latter perhaps a nod to the balance sheet, and stress on data dependency.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · January 31, 2019

Date : 31st January 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st January 2019.

FX News Today

Asian stock markets rallied after the FOMC, which boosted risk appetite.
FOMC held policy steady and pledged to be patient with further interest rate hikes – a possible sign that the Fed is signalling a potential end to its tightening cycle.
Topix and Nikkei climbed 1.08% and 1.06% respectively.
US Equities firmed after Apple, Boeing, AMD results.
German Retail Sales slumped 4.3% m/m at the start of the European session. It raised concerns about the health of the German economy.
European futures are moving higher, in tandem with US futures, after a rally overnight.
WTI crude +2.0% near $54.50 after small EIA build.
USDIndex stumbled 0.45% to 95.40; EUR probed 1.15, JPY through 109.00.

Charts of the Day
Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone Prelim. Flash GDP – Expectations – Overall Eurozone GDP should show growth holding at 0.2% q/q, but with risk to the downside.

German and EU Unemployment Change – Expectations – A decline is anticipated in the German unemployment number of -4K. The December Eurozone unemployment rate is seen falling back to 7.8% from 7.9%.

Canadian GDP – Expectations – GDP for November is on track to contract 0.1% in November (m/m, sa) as the sharp decline in oil prices materially impacted the economy.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · February 1, 2019

Date : 1st February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st February 2019.

FX News Today

US-Sino trade talks will continue later this month with the March 1 deadline for tariff hikes coming ever closer. Both sides sounded cautiously optimistic
Stock markets traded mixed in Asia. Topix and Nikkei closed with a gain of -0.18% and a marginal gain of 0.07% respectively.
China’s manufacturing PMI decline dropped to the lowest level since February 2016. This revived concerns about the country’s economic strength.
Earnings reports continue to come into the mix and banks were the biggest drag on Japanese benchmarks, while electronics makers gained.
European stock futures are moving higher and US futures are now also mostly up as the focus shifts to US jobs data.
The WTI rallied as much as 2%, peaking at two-plus month highs of $55.32 before falling back to the current $53.80.
EURUSD eased from 3-week highs, back to 1.1440 area. USDJPY is above 2-week lows and currently retesting 109.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone Manuf. PMI – Expectations – January Eurozone Manufacturing PMI will likely be confirmed at just 50.5 from the preliminary print, dropping from December’s 51.4, with confidence data adding to concerns that the slowdown will be more protracted than initially expected.

Eurozone’s CPI – Expectations –Eurozone preliminary CPI reading for January should be at just 1.5% y/y, down from 1.6% y/y at the end of 2018.

US Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM Manu. PMI – Expectations – January nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 200k, with a 195k private payroll gain. The ISM is expected to slip to a new 2-year low of 54.0 in January from 54.3 in December, versus a 14-year high of 61.4 in August.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · February 4, 2019

Date : 4th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th February 2019.

FX News Today

10-year Treasury yields are up 0.7 bp at 2.691%, and 10-year JGB yields climbed 0.8 bp to -0.023%.
Yields continue to move higher and Asian stock markets mostly managed modest gains in quiet trade, with China and South Korea closed for Lunar New Year celebrations.
Topix and Nikkei managed gains of 1.07% and 0.46% respectively, while the Hang Seng climbed 0.21% and the ASX closed up 0.48%. US futures are marginally higher.
US President Trump told CBS trade talks with China are “doing very well” and also sounded confident on an agreement with North Korea, which helped to underpin confidence and risk appetite, after strong US data releases on Friday dampened concern about the outlook for world growth and counterbalanced disappointing forecasts from Amazon.
Earnings reports will remain a key factor this week alongside fundamentals and political developments in Europe also, where Brexit concerns remain high on the agenda.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Mersch Speech – Yves Mersch, a member of the ECB Executive Board will speak at Lamfalussy Lectures Conference of Lamfalussy Award at Central Bank of Hungary in Budapest

UK Construction PMI – The UK PMI is expected to have stood at 52.6 in January, compared to 52.8 in December.

US Factory Orders – Factory Orders are expected to have grown by 0.2% in November, compared to -2.1% in October.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · February 5, 2019

Date : 5th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th February 2019.

FX News Today

RBA left the cash rate on hold as expected and conceded that some downside risks have increased. RBA set to make subtle shift to the dovish side.
RBA’s central scenario for the economy is around 3% growth in 2019.
AUDUSD perked up to 0.7260 from 0.7204.
Alphabet beat on profits and revenue, by making $8.94 billion on $39.27 billion revenue, but shares fell 3% on continuing pressure on advertising prices and decreasing margins.
European stock futures are moving higher, while US futures are struggling and slightly in the red.
Better than expected BRC retail sales out of the UK helped to underpin sentiment ahead of Services PMI.
WTI retreated 1.2% to $54.0 area, down from 2019 highs of $55.74 bbl – Currently at $55.00 area.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone Services PMI – The overall Eurozone Services PMI for January is expected to come in unchanged from the preliminary number at 50.8, which should leave the composite at 50.7.

UK Service PMI – It is expected to come in with a headline of 51.0 after 51.2 in December.

EU Retail Sales – They are expected to have corrected -1.8% m/m, after the strong November reading.

US Service and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – The ISM-NMI Index is expected to slip further to 57.5 in January from 58.0 in December, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September. Services PMI is expected to be unchanged at 54.2 for January.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · February 6, 2019

Date : 6th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th February 2019.

FX News Today

Asian stock markets had another lacklustre session.
In Europe, Bunds got another boost from the much weaker than expected German orders number. Manufacturing orders down -1.6% m/m.
RBA shifted to a neutral stance: RBA Governor Philip Lowe mentioned that the ‘interest rate outlook is now more evenly balanced’.
AUD tumbled in tandem with 10-year rates, which dropped -6.3 bp to 2.180%.
EURUSD at 12-day lows under 1.1400; GBPUSD drifted back below 1.3000.
WTI future is trading at USD 53.66, after falling back from levels over USD 55 yesterday.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

US Trade Balance – The November trade deficit is expected to narrow to -$54.0 bln from -$55.5 bln.

Nonfarm Productivity and Labor Costs – Nonfarm productivity growth is pegged at 2.5% in Q4, following a Q3 trimming to 1.7% from 2.3%, while unit labor costs may rise 1.5%.

Canadian Ivey PMI – The January Ivey PMI is expected to improve to a seasonally adjusted 62.0 from 59.7 in December.

NZ Employment Change – The ISM-NMI Index is expected to slip further to 57.5 in January from 58.0 in December, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September. Services PMI is expected to be unchanged at 54.2 for January.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · February 7, 2019

Date : 7th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th February 2019.

FX News Today

10-year Treasury yields are down 0.5 bp at 2.690% but JGB yields are up 1.3 bp at -0.016%, despite a 0.59% decline in the Nikkei and a 0.83% drop in the Topix amid another mixed session in Asia.
Japanese shares were hit by corporate earnings, while the ASX continued to rally, gaining 1.10%, in tandem with local bonds after the dovish shift at the RBA this week.
The RBI meanwhile surprised with a cut in the repo rate by a quarter point. Hong Kong and China remained closed and despite some movement, investors continue to hold back ahead of the next round of US-Sino trade talks next week.
US futures are heading south despite a cautiously upbeat assessment of the economy from Fed Chairman Powell, who said “the US economy is now in a good place”.
The front end WTI future managed a session high of USD 54.04 before falling back to USD 53.79 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

Theresa May meetings in Brussels – Theresa May and the European Commission’s president will meet today, with the UK PM hoping to obtain fresh concessions, despite the EU’s insistence that it will not renegotiate the Brexit deal. In late afternoon, May is also expected to meet with Donald Tusk, the European Council President.

BoE Interest Rate Decision – BoE is not expected to bring forth any changes to its interest rate policy ahead of a Brexit agreement and thus the rate is expected to remain at 0.75%.

BoE Carney Speech – Mark Carney is expected to speak along with other MPC members about the BoE inflation report.

Fed Clarida Speech – FOMC Member, Richard Clarida is due to speak at the Czech National Bank’s conference about the neutral interest rate, with audience questions expected.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · February 8, 2019

Date : 8th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th February 2019.

FX News Today

10-year Treasury yields are down -1.1 bp and JGB yields dropped -1.7 bp to -0.038% as Asian stocks tumbled on growth concerns and pessimism on US-Sino relations, with markets worrying that there won’t be a trade deal in time to prevent another round of tariff hikes.
Asked whether he would meet Chinese President Xi Jinping before the March 1 deadline US President Trump said “No”, before adding “unlikely”, although he suggested they would “maybe” meet later.
Topix and Nikkei lost -1.86% and -1.96% respectively today. The Hang Seng fell back -0.215, after returning from holiday, while mainland China markets remained closed.
The ASX is down after the RBA slashed its growth projection to 2.5% from 3.25% with its quarterly statement on monetary policy today. The CPI forecast was cut to 1.25%.
Growth warnings in Europe yesterday saw European and US markets closing with broad losses. The negative growth backdrop and heightened risk aversion is keeping bond markets supported.
Oil prices fell back to USD 52.26 per barrel.
Fed’s Bullard promotes caution on balance sheet unwind. He declined to say how close the Fed is to ending balance sheet unwind process but said “We are closer than I thought we were a year ago”.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

Russia Interest Rate Decision – No surprises are expected from the Russian Central Bank which is expected to keep its interest rate at 7.75%.

Canada Labour Market Data – Canadian data are expected to show a slight deterioration in the economy in January, as net change in employment is forecast to be lower than December while the unemployment rate is forecast to have grown to 5.7%, compared to 5.6% in December.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HFM · February 11, 2019

Date : 11th February 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th February 2019.

FX News Today

Stocks in Asia traded mixed, amid lingering concerns over US-Sino trade relations and doubt whether the talks will bring sufficient progress to prevent another round of punitive tariffs.
Chinese equities rallied after returning from last week’s holiday, with small caps and stocks in the tech hub of Shenzhen rallying. The Hang Seng was up 0.46% as of 6:30GMT the CSI 300 up 1.62% and Shanghai and Shenzen Comp climbed 1.18% and 2.58% respectively.
Japanese markets were closed for a holiday, so Treasury futures won’t trade either until Europe opens.
Elsewhere in Asia bonds traded mixed with Australia outperforming as the ASX underperformed and dropped -0.17%.
Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will meet Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Trade Representative Lightizer in Beijing for high level talks this week.
Meanwhile the government in Washington may be heading for another shutdown, which is adding to caution in wider markets.
US futures are slightly in the red, while European futures moved slightly higher. The front end WTI future is trading at USD 52.22 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

Swiss CPI – The inflation rate in Switzerland is expected to have stood at 0.6% y/y in January, down from 0.7% y/y in December.

UK GDP and Production Data – UK GDP is expected to have stood at 1.4% y/y in the final quarter of 2018, compared to 1.5% y/y growth in Q3. Manufacturing production is expected to have declined by 0.7% y/y, compared to a decline of 1.1% y/y in November. Industrial Production is expected to have increased by 0.2% m/m, compared to a decline of 0.4% in November.

US Unit Labour Cost – US Unit Labour Cost growth are expected to have stood at 1.7% in 2018Q4, compared to 0.9% in the third quarter.

Support and Resistance

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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