Myfxpedia : Daily Signals And Strategies

[starwar1508]

OK, Xmas is only a month away which most FX traders will shy away as there will be lack of activities and widen spread on most of the pairs. Today is a Thanks Giving day in the US and so do not expect lot of movement during US sessions.

Yesterday was truly a news driven day, as early in the Asian session we have news from Euro that German candidate in the Euro Group oppose the Greece bailout that is they failed to agree on Greece debt reduction package. We immediately see the Euro tanks. Then about anhour later Managing Director Christine Largarde of the IMF came out and soothing the markets with announcement “ We made some good work and we’re closing the gap, but we are not quite there yet, so it’s progress but we have to do a bit more”. That was enough for the hopeful jumped in, with anticipation of agreement will soon be reach. Another news also prompted the rally was the Cease fire between Israel and Hamas group and then came the German Chancellor commented on lower interest rates and expanding FinancialStability Fund for which could be the answer for the Greece tobe able to gets its next round of bailout funds. These news of hope was enough for the depressed market to rally yesterday.

Words of caution: be careful of this relief rally, it could be just a dead cat bounces as there isn’t any concrete problem solve so far and then the fiscal cliff is still hanging in the air which could come back to haveits second bites. The way I seeit is that it will resume the downtrend to at least retest previous low to actually establish that is the low and then we will have a meaningful rally to the upside.

Impact News today:

03:00 am (NY) EUR – French Manufacture PMI; All day Economic Summit; Spanish 10 yr Bond Auction

08:30 am (NY) CAD – Core Retail Sales

Technical analysis:

We are currently hold Long GBPUSD; Short GBPJPY.

As for the pair GBPJPY, I had amended the stop to a maximum of 3 % risk. I had have said before such that the strategy and Risk Management that I am using is that we are trading prices that is at extreme in a short space of times and the initial Risk Management is of 0.5% with a leeway of extended up to 3%. So I advise you all doing the same if you follow my signals. I had said yesterday this pair and most ofthe Yen cross pairs are currently in a strong uptrend but because of the overshoot ina short space of time there willbe a good correction on the pair before resuming the uptrend. Now, once the high isbeing firm we will then scale down our stop but in the mean time we have to avoid being hunted that ‘Big Boys” using the hype to stop raid on us small fishes.

From yesterday update, I mentioned that this pair historically had twice doing the straight 7 days run and move from Band to Band (Bollinger Band). Well, in thislatest run up, today would mark the 7th days and prices has now in extreme overbought and close to Major Resistance and with yesterdayovershoot bullish candle that ran out of the Bollinger Band suggested of capitalisation (ina down run I call it exhaustion). So, today is the 7th day for this pair on this Band to Band move I will lookforward to either a small rangeday or will be the start of a down move of at least 150 to 200 hundred pips or at least tothe 20MA whichever come first.

Also, I will look into H1 and look for Divergence created on H1 and add on another position on this Pair. Which would then giving 3 time frames of Overbought and negative divergences on H4 and H1.

Charts below.

GBPJPY – Daily

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