internationallove Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. GBP/USD: all about the BoE and more Last week GBP/USD attempted to rebound, but didn’t manage to reach to $1.5900. As a result, pound was rejected down to $1.5680 – this support managed to stop the decline for the second time. UK construction PMI disappointed the markets this week. Services PMI, however, unexpectedly jumped to 51.5 (vs. 49.8 expected) and concerns about the triple-dip recession eased. The most important day this week is Thursday, Feb. 7, when the Bank of England meets. According to consensus, the regulator will keep its policy unchanged (asset purchases at 375B, benchmark rate at 0.50%) (12:00 GMT). BoE policymakers seem to think that QE has lost its impact, so their approach now is rather passive. The decision of the Monetary Policy Committee will be based on new forecasts which will become available to public at Governor Mervyn King’s news conference on Feb. 13. Earlier on Thursday Mark Carney, who will head the BoE in June, will appear before UK parliament (09:45 GMT) to discuss topics including monetary policy and financial stability. British lawmakers plan to ask Carney whether the existing policy framework is the right one for the UK. Carney has mentioned so far that nominal GDP targeting could be an even “more powerful tool” to stimulate economies (now the BoE targets inflation). Any comments about inflation target will attract the market’s attention. There’s a risk that could be changed opening the door to looser monetary policy – GBP-negative scenario. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-05/21370-gbpusd-all-about-boe-and-more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD $1.3500, $1.3600; GBP/USD: $.5630 (large); USD/JPY: 93.00, 93.25, 93.50; AUD/USD: $1.0415, $1.0435. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-06/21392-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Deutsche Bank expects risk-off weeks According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, the markets entered a few weeks of a mild risk-off trade. They also remind us that January has always been a risk-on month. Analysts think political tensions in Spain and Italy are causing uncertainty on whether the euro will continue the rally or not. These events remind the traders of how fragile the stability in euro zone is. Failures of the pro-austerity politicians Rajoy and Monti would raise the heat in the region and pressure the currency. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-06/21395-deutsche-bank-expects-risk-weeks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. AUD/USD at new 2013 lows AUD/USD is trading more than 70 pips below the opening price. The pair breached 200-day MA ($1.0380) and then support of Dec. low ($1.0345) and descended to $1.0300. This level may provide some support as Aussie’s decline has been too rapid. If will be very important where Aussie closes the day – if AUS/USD manages to return above $1.0345 (this level has turned into resistance) the bulls won’t have everything lost. The close below these levels, however, will make us target Sept. and Oct. 2012 lows around $1.0150. There will be some support at $1.0250 (top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud). Bearish bias will be eliminated only if the pair rises above $1.0380 and better $1.0400. This week is full with Australian data and tomorrow comes a very important piece – labor market figures. This is a potentially big market mover. Unemployment rate is expected to rise from 5.4% to 5.5% in Jan. According to the forecasts, the number of employed will add 5.8K after contracting by 5.5K in Dec. We think that one should look for opportunities to join bearish market and go short on the pullbacks up later today. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-06/21398-audusd-new-2013-lows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Feb. 6: European session EUR/USD almost touched $1.3600 in Asia, but then eased down. Euro’s trading inside the Ichimoku Cloud on H1 and is supported by 200-hour MA at $1.3525. German factory orders (forecast: 0.8%; prev.: -1.8%). GBP/USD sits slightly above a 6-month low of $1.5630. The pair approached the strong support at 2009-2012. Today’s Halifax HPI index came in line with forecasts at -0.2%. Previous reading was revised down to 1.0%. Sterling is pressured ahead of the tomorrow’s BoE meeting. EUR/GBP slipped to 0.8640. The pair is sitting at the 2008-2011 trend line. EUR/CHF returned back to 1.2350 after a test of 1.2370. EUR/JPY is trading slightly below today’s high of 127.10 (highest since 2009). Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-06/21401-feb-6-european-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/USD: insights about the ECB meeting Market players will be paying great attention to tomorrow’s ECB meeting. Its results will be announced at 12:00 GMT. The central bank’s press conference will follow the announcement starting at 13:30 GMT. The ECB is expected to keep interest rates at 0.75% despite euro’s increase to the maximal levels since late 2011. According to Reuters’ poll of leading analysts, the possibility of a rate cut on Thursday is only 12%. Conditions in the euro zone are normalizing and euro zone’s data last month were mostly encouraging. Moreover, European banks repaid 137 billion euro ($184.3 billion) of LTROs to the ECB in Jan. It means that Europe possesses a smooth mechanism of exit from non-standard stimulus measures, the one US and Japan doesn’t have: there’s no need to stop some super measures, the bank just repay what they’ve borrowed and that’s all. Yet, the ECB’s chief may give some dovish comments emphasizing that the ECB is far from tightening its policy. The journalists will also likely question Draghi about Italian banking scandal (the world’s oldest bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena got mixed up with loss-making derivatives and the ECB let this happen). The scandal shows that it would be extremely difficult for the ECB to create a euro zone-wide banking supervisory body. All in all, the meeting won’t derail euro’s uptrend. Photo from ec.europa.eu Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-06/21405-eurusd-insights-about-ecb-meeting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Feb. 7: Asian session EUR/USD is consolidating at $1.3515. Yesterday euro closed at this level after a 60-pips drop. Today the euro zone’s agenda is full. The main risk events of the day are the ECB meeting (12:45 GMT) and the press conference (13:30 GMT). Monetary policy is expected to remain on hold, but Mario Draghi’s comments may impact the euro. Watch also the French 10-year bond auction. Germany will release industrial production figures at 11:00 GMT. A 2-day EU economic summit starts in Brussels. USD/JPY drifted lower from the high above 94.00 yen visited yesterday and is trading above support of 93.20. Yen rose as declining Asian stocks spurred haven demand. Australian employment data came better than expected. Not good enough, though, to cause a significant lift of Aussie. Australia’s unemployment rate stayed at 5.4% (vs. forecast of 5.5%), while the number of jobs increased by 10.4K (vs. forecast of 5.5K). Employers cut 9.8K of full- time positions in Jan. AUD/USD is consolidating in the $1.0330/00. NZD/USD closed below $0.8400 yesterday and today touched $0.8350. New Zealand’s labor market figures were also far from impressing. The number of employed contracted by 1.0% in Q4. GBP/USD is holding at $1.5660, slightly above the recent 6-month low of $1.5630. Today is a big day for the sterling: Marc Carney takes over Mervin King as a new BoE Governor. Watch the Carney’s speech at 9:45 GMT and the BoE policy decision at 12:00 GMT. Earlier in the day pay attention to the British manufacturing production and trade balance data at 9:00 GMT (forecasts –positive). USD/CAD bounced from the 200-day MA and trades at 0.9960. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-07/21406-feb-7-asian-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3500; GBP/USD: $1.5360, $1.5700, $1.5715; USD/JPY: 93.00, 93.50, 94.00, 94.10. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-07/21412-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Feb. 7: European session EUR/USD went up to the 100-hour MA ($1.3565). Euro wasn’t affected much be discouraging French trade data (trade deficit widened from -4.3B euro to -5.3B). Germany will release industrial production figures at 11:00 GMT. After this release investors will adjust expectations from the ECB meeting. We’re also waiting for Spanish and French debt auctions results which may arrive any minute. GBP/USD continues the consolidation in the $1.5680/5630 range. The pair is currently trading at $1.5670. Sterling was supported by upbeat data releases. UK manufacturing production grew by 1.6% in Dec. (forecast: +0.7%, Jan: -0.3%). December industrial production also improved and came above forecast at +1.1%. As expected, British Dec. trade deficit narrowed to 8.9B pounds from 9.3B. The designated BoE Governor Marc Carney is holding a speech at 9:45 GMT. Carefully watch the BoE meeting results at 12:00 GMT. The monetary policy is expected to remain unchanged. EUR/GBP rebounded to 0.8660 after a short-term consolidation. The pair remains below the recent 16-month high of 0.8715. EUR/JPY strengthened to 127.30 and is prepared to test fresh three-year highs. EUR/CHF returned to 1.2300. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-07/21417-feb-7-european-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. ECB statement and press conference • Inflationary pressures remain contained, what gives ECB to keep policy accommodative. Inflation is expected to fall below 2.0% in the coming months. • Euro zone’s economy is expected to remain weak in Q4 and early 2013 because of the subdued demand. Later in 2013 a gradual recovery should start. Market sentiment is improving. LTRO repayments reflect improved confidence. • Economy remains fragile: ECB lending survey confirms heightened credit risks in Q4. • Appreciation of the euro is a sign of returning confidence, but the ECB is not targeting the exchange rate. ECB will monitor the situation and remain accommodative. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-07/21424-ecb-statement-and-press-conference Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Feb. 8: Asian session EUR/USD is sitting at $1.3400 after giving tested $1.3380 after the ECB press-conference. Mario Draghi said that monetary policy will remain soft as economic fundamentals in Q4 and early 2013 are weak. Recovery is expected to start in the second half of the year. Nothing new for the euro, but Draghi’s comments pulled the currency down by 200 pips. Today there are no important releases in the euro zone. Watch the headlines from the second day of the EU economic summit. USD/JPY slipped to 0.9330. The yen is trading sideways after having tested a three-year high of 94.05. Japan posted a bigger-than-expected current account deficit. AUD/USD tested the levels below $1.0260 earlier in the day after the dovish RBA monetary statement. Regulator reduced its economic growth and inflation forecasts as investment outside the mining industry remains low, the labor market is weak and a high currency contains prices. Aussie rebounded a bit on bigger-than-expected Chinese January trade surplus (+29.2B vs. exp. 24.3B, prev. 31.6B). The pair stopped ahead of the $1.0300 resistance. NZD/USD rebounded to $0.8350 after having touched $0.8300 yesterday. GBP/USD rebounded to $1.5730. USD/CAD is moving sideways around 0.9980. USD/CHF trades at 0.9170 after yesterday’s rebound to 0.9200. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-08/21427-feb-8-asian-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/USD: news from the battlefield EUR/USD is consolidating in the $1.3415/3380 range. As of writing, euro is trading at $1.3390. Yesterday Mario Draghi’s unexpectedly dovish comments pulled the euro down more than by 200 pips. EUR/USD is reentering the $1.3400/3250 support area. The pair slipped below 50% Fibonacci retracement from the 2011-2012 drop ($1.3490). Euro is holding above the 50-month EMA ($1.3380) and 200-week EMA ($1.3350). A weekly close below $1.3400 would be a sign for a deeper correction. However, the medium-term uptrend remains intact at least above $1.3250. We will remain bullish in a medium-term and recommend using any pullbacks as buying opportunities. Support: $1.3380, $1.3350, $1.3300, $1.3270, $1.3250 Resistance: $1.3415, $1.3480, $1.3500 Chart. Daily EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-08/21429-eurusd-news-battlefield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Feb. 8: European session EUR/USD has slightly rebounded to $1.3415 after a test of $1.3380. Investor's sentiment improved compared to Thursday. German trade surplus widened to 16.8B. Italian Dec. industrial production rose by above forecasts by 0.4%. Markets believe that today the European Council may finally approve the 2014-2020 EU budget. GBP/USD is trading at $1.5730. EUR/GBP is unchanged at 0.8530. USD/JPY dropped more than by 100-pips to 92.50. Japanese financial mimister Aso said that maybe the yen weakness has gone to far. Market is thin and illiquid ahead of Japan's three-day weekend. EUR/JPY slipped to 124.15. USD/CHF sitting close to session lows at 0.9170. EUR/CHF is trading at 1.2300. Swiss employment rate remained unchanged at 3.1%, while retail sales grew by 5.1% (forecast: 3.2%, prev.: 3.0%). Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-08/21435-feb-8-european-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Feb. 12: Asian session USD/JPY reached our target of 94.13 (38.2% Fibo). Yen weakened as US Treasury official signaled support for Japan’s efforts to end deflation. Finance Minister Taro Aso said today Japan will tell G20 that it will maintain efforts to beat deflation. AUD/USD kept declining. Today the pair’s testing levels below $1.0250. China has been the regular buyer of Aussie, but as Chinese markets are closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, AUD is vulnerable for the sell-off. NZD/USD is trading below resistance of $0.8380. EUR/USD slipped back to $1.3380 after yesterday’s temporary rebound to $1.3430. Euro edged up as Bundesbank’s Weidmann's pointed that the price of the euro is not too high. Today there are no important data releases on the agenda. Watch the ECOFIN headlines and ECB Draghi’s speech at 15:30 GMT. GBP/USD is consolidating at $1.5650 after Monday’s 160-pips drop. Britain will release inflation figures at 9:30 GMT. USD/CAD resumed growth and is now trading at 1.0060. Yesterday the US dollar touched 1.0080, but then pulled back below 1.0050. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-12/21465-feb-12-asian-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. AUD/USD: bears in charge AUD/USD kept declining. Today the pair’s testing 3-month lows below $1.0250. If this level is breached, the pair will fall to $1.0150 (our target). China is a regular buyer of Aussie, but as Chinese markets are closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, AUD is vulnerable for the sell-off. In addition, the 5.1 earthquake in North Korea worsened the market’s sentiment. JPMorgan Chase thinks that AUD/USD will find some support at $1.0225. In their view, the area from $1.0255 to $1.0225 contains 38.2% Fibo retracement of the 2012 advance and 76.4% Fibo of advance from $1.0150. Roy Morgan survey of more than 2,000 firms showed that Australian business confidence rose last month to the maximum since April 2011. NAB business confidence was also positive. There’s also some convergence at H4 that may allow some upward correction, though the move can hardly be big. Watch for consumer sentiment data tonight. There will be some support at $1.02351 and $1.0200. Resistance lies at $1.0300, $1.0345 and $1.0380 (200-day MA). The outlook will remain bearish until Aussie’s trading below the latter. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-12/21467-audusd-bears-charge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3390, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3550; GBP/USD $1.5800; USD/JPY: 92.50, 93.60, 93.70; AUD/USD: $1.0200, $1.0260. $1.0400, $1.0500; EUR/GBP: 0.8550, 0.8555. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-12/21474-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Feb. 12: European session EUR/USD jumped above $1.3450 breaking above the upper border of the sideways channel which has been in place in the last 2 trading days and the 100-hour MA. Demand for Spanish debt was high, 6-month yields were slightly lower, while 12-month yields – a bit higher. G7 issued statement affirming their commitment to market determined exchange rates, but didn’t mention Japan and the recent decline of JPY. The Swiss National Bank Chairman Jordan said that there’s no immediate inflation risk and the central bank expects CHF to keep weakening. EUR/CHF jumped from 1.2300 to the daily highs above 1.2340. GBP/USD has tested a fresh low of $1.5575 after the UK inflation data releases. As expected, UK January CPI rose by 2.7% y/y (well above the BoE target of 2.0% y/y). The core CPI was up by 2.3% y/y (forecast: +2.4% y/y). PPI rose by 1.3% m/m (forecast: +0.9% m/m). The BOE will release detailed long-term forecasts for UK inflation and growth on Wednesday. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-12/21483-feb-12-european-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/USD: news from the battlefield EUR/USD keeps consolidating in the $1.3440/50 sideways range after yesterday’s rebound on Mario Draghi’s comments. The technical picture improved as euro returned back above the $1.3400 mark. A recovery above $1.3500 (50% Fibo from a 2011/2012 decline, neckline of a head-and-shoulders pattern) would be a bullish sign and would signal the resumption of growth. The next targets will be seen at $1.3600, $1.3700/15 and $1.3830. The pair is supported at $1.3400, $1.3350 (200-week MA), $1.3300 (upper boundary of the weekly Ichimoku) and $1.3270. Trend reversal to the downside would confirm only below $1.3150. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-12/21483-feb-12-european-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3325, $1.3400, $1.3410, $1.3420, $1.3430, $1.3450, $1.3470, $1.3500; GBP/USD: $1.5600, $1.5655; USD/JPY: 94.00, 93.25, 93.00, 93.60, 94.45 (large); AUD/USD: $1.0400, $1.0200, $1.0300, $1.0250, $1.0260, $1.0280; USD/CAD: 1.0000; EUR/JPY: 124.60; EUR/CHF: 1.2250. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-13/21511-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Feb. 14: Asian session USD/JPY is trading on the upside, at 93.60. As expected, the Bank of Japan maintained its overnight call rate target at a range of zero to 0.1% and kept its asset purchase fund unchanged at 76 trillion yen ($813 billion). One of the BOJ board members proposed keeping interest rates close to zero until the central bank’s target of 2% inflation is in sight, but this idea was rejected. Yet, investors are filled with hopes of more stimulus measure next month as Japanese economy is still in poor state. Japan’s GDP fell by 0.1% in Q4 (forecast: +0.1%). Former BOJ Deputy Governor Kazumasa Iwata, a potential candidate to become the next central bank head, signaled the currency has scope to depreciate further. Yen’s decline was limited ahead of G20 meeting this week amid speculation member nations will criticize Japan for the recent declines in its currency. EUR/USD slipped to $1.3430 after yesterday’s rise above $1.3500. Today is a big day for the euro: watch the euro zone’s Q4 GDP at 10:00 GMT (forecast: -0.4%; Q3: -0.1%). Also pay attention to French, German and Italian preliminary GDP, French preliminary NFP and the ECB monthly bulletin. Traders are also becoming cautious ahead of the G20 meeting on Feb. 15-16. GBP/USD extended losses to $1.5515.Cable remains pressured after the yesterday’s BoE inflation report. USD/CAD is consolidating at 1.0015. NZD/USD reached 11-month high at 0.8492 after figures showed the nation’s manufacturing industry grew at the fastest pace since May. AUD/USD touched $1.0370, but then returned to $1.0345. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-14/21530-feb-14-asian-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. USD/JPY: only G20 ahead So, the Bank of Japan’s meeting is left behind and we are now ready to face G20 meeting. It seems that investors used the concerns about this upcoming event to adjust their positions. USD/JPY will probably trade sideways ahead of further news. There are some warning signs from H4 Ichimoku and Stochastic, so the pair may test closer support levels, , but the Cloud itself still provides good back-up. In the longer term, market has faith in the BOJ. USD/JPY uptrend remains intact and the pair is unlikely to weaken below 87.00 (50% Fibo). Resistance: 93.90, 94.10, 94.45. Support: 93.20, 92.80, 92.20. Chart. H4 USD/JPY Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-14/21536-usdjpy-only-g20-ahead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Commerzbank: outlook for EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP EUR/JPY keeps consolidating in the 127.70/123.30 short-term sideways range. Commerzbank strategists expect the pair to remain in the bullish trend. According to analysts, the downside is contained by the support at 122.15 (6-week uptrend) and at 119.75 (3-month uptrend). Resistance is seen at 127.70, 127.90 and 128.80/129.00. Chart. Daily EUR/JPY As for EUR/GBP, analysts also expect the pair to edge higher in the medium term. They recommend buying above 0.8620. The next resistance is seen at 0.8800/30 and then at 0.9080 (2011 high). Support lies at 0.8480/40. A slide below could take the pair to 0.8340. Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-14/21541-commerzbank-outlook-eurjpy-and-eurgbp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Feb. 14: European session EUR/USD touched $1.3320 after data showed euro zone’s Q4 GDP contracted by 0.6% q/q (forecast: -0.4%; Q3: -0.1%) and by 0.9% y/y. Earlier in the day worse-than-expected French, German and Italian Q4 GDP figures made warning signals: the economies contracted by 0.3%, 0.6% and 0.9% q/q respectively. All the figures are preliminary, but, evidently, the economic situation is worse than many of us hoped. GBP/USD slid to $1.5492, the lowest level since August. There is no important news from the UK. Pound was hit versus the greenback on weak European data. Sterling will likely hang around $1.5500 for some time and then resume declines. On the upside it might be capped by $1.5630. Pound strengthened against euro. EUR/GBP slid by more than 60 pips below 0.8600. Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-14/21544-feb-14-european-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Feb. 15: Asian session EUR/USD is consolidating around $1.3350. Yesterday the pair touched $1.3315 on negative euro zone’s GDP. The market sentiment remains pessimistic. Today euro zone will release Italian trade balance (9:00 GMT) and regional trade balance data (10:00 GMT). USD/JPY slid to 92.30. Yen strengthened as G20 finance ministers and central bankers start a 2-day meeting today in Moscow. Japanese Dec. industrial production growth was revised down from 2.5% to 2.4%. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is close to selecting his nominee for BOJ governor and a decision could come in the next few days, sources close to the process told Reuters. NZD/USD reached the highest level in almost 1 1/2 years at $0.8533 after a report showed retail sales jumped in Q4 by 2.1% (forecast: 1.3%). AUD/USD is on the upside. Aussie keeps trying to get higher, but is still capped by resistance at $1.0375. GBP/USD has slightly rebounded to $1.5515. Yesterday cable touched a 6-month low of $1.5475. Watch British January retail sales data at 9:30 GMT (forecast – positive). USD/CAD is consolidating at parity. USD/CHF is gradually correcting up. The pair’s currently above 0.9200. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-15/21547-feb-15-asian-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EURUSD: $1.3150, $1.3270, $1.3300, $1.3385, $1.3400, $1.3500; GBPUSD: $1.5450, $1.5500, $1.5600, $1.4700; USDJPY: 92.00, 92.25, 93.00, 93.10, 94.00; USDCHF: 0.9240, 0.9300; AUDUSD: $1.0230, $1.0250, $1.0280, $1.0285, $1.0350, $1.0380; EURGBP: 0.8400, 0.8600, 0.8650. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-15/21549-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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