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Jan. 28: European session

 

EUR/USD is trading below the Friday’s $1.3480 high. Today the pair slipped to $1.3420, but returned back above $1.3450. The EURO STOXX 50 index is up by 0.06%.

 

Euro zone’s money supply eased to 3.3% y/y in December (forecast: 3.9%; previous: 3.8%), while private loans contracted last month by 0.7% y/y. Italian consumer confidence dropped to 84.6 in January (forecast: 86.0; previous: 85.7). There was some talk about potential risks to euro stability from Cyprus.

 

GBP/USD bounced from $1.5715 (lowest level since August 2012), but returned above $1.5740. The morning 50-pips bearish gap remains open.

 

USD/CAD is trading at session highs slightly below 1.0100. The pair extends the upside after a short-term downward correction from Friday’s 6-month high. Watch the BoC Governor Carney speech at 16:00 GMT.

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Key options expiring today

 

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3225, $1.3250;

 

USD/JPY: 90.00, 91.00. 91.25;

 

AUD/USD: $1.0395, $1.0405, $1.0450, $1.0500 $1.0600;

 

NZD/USD: $0.8395;

 

EUR/CHF: 1.2400.

 

 

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EUR/USD: news from the battlefield

 

 

EUR/USD remains around the $1.3450 mark after the euro zone’s data releases. German consumer climate rose in line with forecasts, while French consumer confidence remained unchanged. Spanish retail sales dropped by 10.7% y/y (forecast: -8.9%, prev.: -7.8%).

 

The pair keeps consolidating after Friday’s gains. Euro is now cramped in the $1.3400/3500 area. Buy orders are clustered at $1.3400/20, while below there is a “sell stops” area. Watch the $1.3345 support.

 

Offers are concentrated at $1.3480/1.3500. A break above the $1.3500 resistance will be a strong bullish sign.

 

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Nomura: EUR/USD will reverse at $1.3700

 

 

In the medium term analysts at Nomura expect euro to trade above $1.3500 and to test the $1.3700 resistance before resuming a gradual bearish trend.

 

In their view, there is no ground for euro’s sustained rally as the euro zone’s growth remains insufficient. They recommend watching the growth data in order to find a reversal point.

 

But in the nearest future euro will remain supported by the LTRO repayment. Nomura specialists give one more reason for euro strength in the near-term: the BoJ may soon buy European bonds in an effort to weaken the yen. Japanese will turn to European markets, because US will not sell T-bonds for intervention purposes.

 

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NZD/USD returned back above 0.8350

 

 

NZD/USD has recovered back above 0.8350 after having dipped below 0.8300 on Monday. Kiwi bounced from the daily Ichimoku Cloud. The pair was supported by positive December trade balance and export figures. Kiwi remains in the sideways 0.8330/0.8450 range.

 

Westpac: NZD/USD outlook remains positive, targeting the 0.8475 level in the near-term. Extreme long positioning plus a dovish RBNZ on Thursday could provide better buying opportunities this week. We remain bullish above the key 0.8215 level.

Chart. Daily NZD/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Jan. 29: European session

 

 

Bears are putting all their efforts to make EUR/USD slide to $1.3400. Euro Stoxx 50 is down by 0.23%. There was some positive news after weak Spain retail sales figures: Italy sold 8.5 bln. euro in 6-month bonds at a 0.731% yield (lowest since March 2010), but the players are cautious.

 

EUR/GBP is down today after reaching 0.8586 on Monday, the highest level since Dec. 2011. EUR/JPY also subsided from 122.90 (highest since April 2011). GBP/USD is trying to hold above $1.5700.

 

The most important event today is the release of US CB consumer confidence at 15:00 (forecast: 64.8; prev.: 65.1).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Jan. 30: Asian session

 

 

USD/JPY is trading in the 91.00/90.40 area. Yen weakened today amid decreased demand for safe havens. Mood is risk-on, Asian stocks rose for a second day. Investors are expecting more easing from the Bank of Japan.

 

The greenback’s trying to recover versus its peers after yesterday’s slide. AUD/USD paused below $1.0480 on its way up. NZD/USD is down after failing to break $0.8400. New Zealand’s building concerts rose by 9.4% in Dec. (the most since May 2008). NZD/JPY stays near 76.37 (highest since summer 2008).

 

EUR/USD has slowed growth slightly below the key $1.3500 resistance. Euro bulls are preparing to conquer a new height. The volatility is likely to increase during the European and US sessions. Euro zone will publish Spanish flash GDP at 8:0 GMT. Italy and Germany will hold bond auctions today (time – tentative).

 

GBP/USD remains below the $1.5750 mark. Great Britain will publish net lending to individuals, M4 money supply and mortgage approvals data at 9:30 GMT. USD/CAD has rebounded to 1.0020 after yesterday’s drop to parity.

 

Everyone is already focused on the coming American session with US GDP release, ADP employment figures and the FOMC decision.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Key options expiring today

 

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3400, $1.3425, $1.3430, $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3525;

 

GBP/USD: $1.5725, $1.5775, $1.5800;

 

USD/JPY: 90.00, 90.50, 91.00, 91.25;

 

USD/CHF: 0.9185;

 

AUD/USD: $1.0400, $1.0420, $1.0450, $1.0500;

 

EUR/CHF: 1.2475;

 

EUR/GBP: 0.8550.

 

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Fed’s meeting: no changes are expected

 

 

The results of the Fed's meeting are due today at 19:15 GMT.

 

On the last meeting in Dec. the Fed boosted its asset purchases to $85 billion a month, on an open-ended basis, set for the first time unemployment and inflation targets (6.5% and 2.5%) for curbing stimulus and signaled that it expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at the current ultra-low level through mid-2015.

 

However, the minutes of that meeting showed that the central bank’s officials were “approximately evenly divided” between those who said it would be appropriate to end QE3 around the middle of this year and those who though the Fed should carry on beyond that.

 

All in all, analysts don’t expect any changes from the Fed this time: the central bank is projected to affirm that intends to help lift the economy and continue stimulus. Ben Bernanke said this month that too little progress had been made in reducing unemployment and signaled that the Fed’s aggressive support programs should continue.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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JPMorgan: bullish on EUR/CHF

 

 

EUR/CHF is trading around 1.2450 (23.6% Fibo from a recent rally). According to JPMorgan strategists, the bias remains positive. A weekly close above 1.2650 will confirm a new long-term uptrend.

 

Below 1.2650 the market remains vulnerable to another test of the SNB’s floor at 1.2000. Support is seen at 1.2270 (61.8% Fibo), 1.2190 and 1.2120.

 

Chart. Daily EUR/CHF

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Jan. 30: European session

 

 

Euro rose above $1.3500 to its highest level in 14 months against USD and hit 123.65 against JPY, a 33-month peak.

 

Markets are optimistic about the euro area, even though data today showed that Spanish economy contracted by 0.7% in Q4 (forecast: -0.6%; prev.: -0.3%). Data for the whole Europe were mixed: EU economic sentiment indicator rose from 87.8 in Dec. to 89.2 in Jan. The region’s business climate, however, came below expectations (-1.09). Italy sold 6.5bln euro of bonds (target: 4.5– 6.5bln) with improved yields.

 

The single currency may add more as US GDP growth is expected to slow from 3.1% in Q3 to 1.1% in Q4 and the Fed’s meeting results (the central bank will likely keep easing well in place). In addition, there will be the first euro zone banks’ repayments of 3-year loans to the ECB – the sign that euro zone’s banking system may be on the mend.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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ANZ: buy AUD/USD in February

 

 

An idea from ANZ: analysts say that one should consider buying Australian dollar versus the greenback in February. The specialists point out that Aussie tends to outperform during this month – it gained in 10 out of the last 13 years during February – and propose to engage in AUD/USD longs next month.

 

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Jan. 31: European session

 

 

EUR/USD sits in 40-pip range above $1.3545. The single currency is capped after German data release. Euro Stoxx 50 is down by 0.7%. Some investors went to seek refuge in USD and JPY.

 

Traders said a reported option barrier at $1.3600 was safe for the time being. Bids were cited below $1.3530.

 

European data:

_

- Germany, retail sales: -1.7% m/m in Dec. (forecast: +0.1%; previous: +0.6%).

- France, consumer spending: 0.0% (forecast: +0.3%; previous: +0.2%).

+

- Germany: the number of unemployed people fell by -16K (forecast: +8K; previous: -2K).

- Spain, current account: 1.78B euro (prev.: 0.865B euro).

 

GBP/USD consolidates above the $1.5800 mark. Earlier in the day the cable has touched $1.5840. Sterling was supported by the improved British consumer confidence and nationwide housing prices.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Feb. 1: Asian session

 

 

EUR/USD has strengthened to a fresh high of $1.3630. Yesterday the pair closed above the $1.3600 mark. The pair keeps moving in a strong bullish trend. There is a bunch of important data releases on today’s euro zone’s agenda: watch Spanish and Italian manufacturing PMIs, euro zone’s Jan. flash CPI estimate and Dec. unemployment rate (forecast – modest rise from 11.8% to 11.9%).

 

USD/JPY rose to new 2-1/2-year high above 92.00. Yen weakened on the speculation Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is nearing selection of a new Bank of Japan governor who will boost monetary stimulus to spur inflation. Japanese unemployment rate rose from 4.1% in Nov. to 4.2% in Dec., while household spending contracted by -0.7% (forecast: -0.2%; prev.: 0.2%). EUR/JPY reached 125.70, highest level since April 2010.

 

Australia’s dollar fell after official manufacturing PMI in China, the nation’s biggest trading partner, added only 50.4 (forecast: 51.1; prev.: 50.6). Australian PPI growth also slowed down, so the RBA has room for rate cuts. AUD/USD is back below $1.0400 after testing $1.0450 yesterday. NZD/USD is consolidating above $0.8400 after testing $0.8440 earlier today.

 

GBP/USD climbed to $1.5875. Sterling continues to rebound after a drop below $1.5700 on Jan. 28. Watch the British manufacturing PMI at 9:30 GMT (forecast – slight decline, but the index is expected to hold above 50). USD/CAD sits at 0.9975. Yesterday the pair tested 0.9960 (200-day EMA) and closed below parity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Key options expiring today

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3500;

 

GBP/USD: $1.6000;

 

USD/JPY: 90.00 (large), 91.00, 92.00;

 

AUD/USD: $1.0445, $1.0500;

 

EUR/CHF: 1.2475.

 

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January NFP ahead

 

This week was full, but the fun isn’t over yet as the market is bracing itself for NFP release at 13:30 GMT.

 

Forecast: 161K

 

Previous: 155K

 

As you may see, analysts expect US employment to show steady growth. Jan. ADP employment report, which is often used for hints about NFP, came better than expected (192K vs. 164K), though Dec. reading was revised down from 215K to 185K. The recent jobless claims disappointed by coming above forecast.

 

If we see good release in line or above forecasts, USD will gain, but probably not much and the move will be short-lived, at least against EUR, as the Fed has made it clear that it’s going to continue stimulus until the unemployment falls to 6.5% and this is unlikely to happen anytime soon. The Fed’s officials got a glimpse on NFP figures ahead of their policy meeting this week and didn’t announce any changes to its extremely loose policy. There were many weekends in January and the impact of the fiscal cliff could derail hiring at the start of the year, so we definitely see risk of lower data. The weak reading doesn’t seem to be priced in, so it will probably send USD lower.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Feb. 1: European session

 

 

 

 

EUR/USD keeps methodically renewing highs. The current one is at $1.3675. Euro got positive momentum as euro zone’s Jan. PMI was revised up from 47.5 to 47.9. In addition, the region’s unemployment rate declined from 11.8% to 11.7%, while economists expected an increase to new record maximum of 11.9%. Then euro’s advance stalled a bit as European CPI came at 2.0%, below forecast of 2.2%. This means that euro’s strength affects the region’s economy after all.

 

All eyes are at US data at 13:30 GMT. We expect some consolidation ahead of the releases.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Oil prices remain well supported

 

 

 

 

Oil prepares to show the longest run of weekly gains in more than 8 years. The market’s pricing in the expectations of good NFP release as US is the world’s biggest crude consumer. Good risk sentiment is good for crude oil. China is another big oil consumer, so watch Chinese economic data on Friday, Feb. 8.

 

Another driver of oil prices are the tensions at Middle East and North Africa which may raise concerns that shipments from the region will be disrupted. Crude production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries declined to a 15-month low in January as Saudi Arabia reduced output because of waning demand from consumers.

 

According to Bloomberg survey, 42% of analysts and traders expect crude to increase through Feb. 8, 37% predicted a decline and 9% forecast little change.

 

For the month, US crude for March delivery gained $5.67, or 6.17%, to $97.56 a barrel, while Brent crude futures gained $4.44, or 4%, to $115.55 a barrel, the highest settlement since mid-October.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Spain: Prime Minister’s involved in scandal

 

 

 

 

The scandal around Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy keeps progressing.

 

On Jan. 31 El Pais, Spain’s biggest newspaper, published the revelations in of alleged illegal cash payments to the leadership of the ruling People’s Party, including Rajoy himself. According to the information gathered by the newspaper, Rajoy allegedly got 25,200 euros ($34,100) each year for 11 years from a secret fund. Rajoy denied having received illegal payments and pledged to publish his tax declaration and list of personal wealth on the government’s website next week. Now opposition leaders call for Rajoy’s resignation. The People’s Party support dropped to 23.9% from 29.8% a month earlier.

 

The scandal comes in difficult times for Spain as the nation struggles through severe austerity measures amid extremely weak economy (GDP contracted by 0.7% q/q in Q4). The situation at the nation’s debt market has just calmed down a bit (10-year yields are at 5%, down from euro-era high of 7.75% reached in July) and political instability may change the situation to worse. If the issue isn’t addressed quickly enough, it could undermine investors’ confidence to Spain.

 

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TD Securities: USD/CAD targets 1.0200/1.0300

 

 

 

USD/CAD is trading at 0.9970. The downside is limited by the 200-day EMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement from the January uptrend (0.9815/1.0100).

 

Analysts at TD Securities believe that the corrective bearish move is over. Strategists expect the pair to resume growth and to reach 1.0200/1.0300 in the near-term. A move above parity will confirm the forecast.

 

Chart. Daily USD/CAD

 

 

 

 

 

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Feb. 4: European session

 

 

 

EUR/USD slipped to $1.3570. The next strong support for EUR/USD lies at $1.3500. Spanish corruption scandal is hurting the euro: Spanish 10-year yields are at the highest since mid-December. Euro-sentiment worsened after Spain’s unemployment data (below forecast, but still enormous: +132.1K in Jan.; forecast: +150.0K; Dec: -59.1K). Weak Sentix investor confidence index added to market concerns. As expected, PPI remained at -0.2%.

 

GBP/USD rose from today’s low around $1.5680 to $1.5730. The area of $1.5700 provides good support for the pair. January’s UK PMI Construction is out, at the same pace of December, at 48.7, while economists expected an increase to 49.1.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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EUR/GBP: contradictory forecasts

 

 

 

EUR/GBP slipped to 0.8625. The pair is retracing after Friday's rally to 0.8715 (highest since Nov. 2011). Note that the pair closed the week above the 2009-2013 trend line resistance. It is a positive signal.

 

Commerzbank: We are targeting 0.8800/30 (78.6% Fibo from a 2011 high, October 2011 high) ahead of 0.9080 (2011 high). The market is bid above 0.8560 (61.8% Fibo).

 

Meanwhile, analysts at Nomura remain bearish for the euro in the medium term. They recommend selling EUR/GBP at current levels, with a target of 0.8200 and a stop at 0.8750. According to analysts, GBP will be supported by continued inflows to buy gilts.

 

For now the technical picture remains bullish and the current decline looks like a correction. However, a slide below the 0.8550 support сould make the Nomura forecast look reasonable.

 

Chart. Weekly EUR/GBP

 

 

 

 

 

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Key options expiring today

 

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3550, $1.3510, $1.3500;

GBP/USD: $1.5700;

USD/JPY: 91.50, 92.00, 92.50, 93.00;

AUD/USD: $1.0340, $1.0410, $1.0450, $1.0455.

 

flatline.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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USD/JPY: technical levels

 

 

 

USD/JPY has made a temporary top at 93.18. MACD went below signal line on H4 and we see divergence on the daily chart. Technically one could expect to see more consolidation.

 

At the same time, USD/JPY keeps holding above the Ichimoku Cloud on H4. Commerzbank says that Elliot wave count on the intraday chart is implying we have one more leg to 93.70 prior to failure.

 

The market’s bullish as long as the pair trades above support of 90.24 (previous resistance), 90.12 (20-day MA) and 89.73 (2-month uptrend channel).

 

Resistance lies at 93.00, 93.32 (measurement higher from its triangle) and 94.13 (38.2% retracement of the move down from 2007).

 

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

 

 

 

 

 

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Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-05/21362-usdjpy-technical-levels

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Feb. 5: European session

 

 

EUR/USD is consolidating around $1.3520. Euro rebounded from a daily low of $1.3460 and touched $1.3550 (50- and 100-hour EMAs) after the euro zone data releases. Spain’s services PMI has slightly calmed the markets down: the index overcame the forecast and improved from 44.3 to 47.0. In contrast, Italian services PMI contracted from 45.6 to 43.9. Final euro zone services PMI came slightly above the forecast at 48.6. Euro zone retail sales dropped by 0.8% (forecast: -0.5%, prev.: -0.1%).

 

French Prime Minister Hollande said to the European parliament that the worst of the crisis has passed. According to Hollande, euro’s exchange rate is too volatile, vulnerable to ‘irrational’ swings. “We cannot let the euro fluctuate as the markets feel like,” said French PM.

 

GBP/USD is trying to overcome resistance at $1.5780. UK services PMI came above expectations (51.5 vs. the forecast of 49.8). Yet, initial attempt of pound to get higher was rejected around $1.5800.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

Recent market news from FBS

 

 

 

Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-05/21366-feb-5-european-session

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