internationallove Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. GBP/USD: rally ran out of steam GBP/USD slid from last week highs to $1.6030. It seems that the cable resumed the downtrend after having formed a top at $1.6130 (61.8% Fibo, Upper Bollinger). Sterling reentered the daily Ichimoku Cloud and has already tested the levels below. The pair is sitting on a strong support at $1.6030/10: here we see the upper boundary of the bearish channel, the 50-day MA and 38.2% Fibonacci. A slide below these levels would confirm the bearish prospects of the pound. Nomura: The upward breakout has been exhausted, our target is $1.5980. Commerzbank: Sell with a stop at $1.6185 and a target of $1.5900. Support: $1.6030/10, $1.6000, $1.5980, $1.5960 Resistance: $1.6070, $1.6130, $1.6185 Watch the BoE Governor King speaking at 17:15 GMT. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-10/20542-gbpusd-rally-ran-out-steam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Dec. 10: European session EUR/USD is consolidating around $1.2900 after having tested $1.2867 in the Asian session. Euro zone released a bunch of negative data: French and Italian industrial production slowed more than expected, German trade deficit widened and Sentix investor confidence came deeper into the negative territory, indicating growing pessimism. Euro Stoxx 50 is down by 1.22%. GBP/USD edged slightly higher to $1.6040. Watch the BoE Governor King speaking at 17:15 GMT. USD/JPY slipped below the 200-hour MA (82.23) and is moving to 82.00 and most likely lower as the demand for greenback is lower ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday. USD/CHF almost closed bullish gap with the pair sliding to 0.9350. AUD/USD is still on the downside from the opening price, around $1.0480. USD/CAD retraced from a 2-month low at 0.9865, but remains below 0.9900. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-10/20547-dec-10-european-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. FX majors from top forecasters Here are the forecasts for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and EUR/JPY from top forecasters. Data were submitted on December 7. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-10/20550-fx-majors-top-forecasters Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. USD/JPY: trading recommendations USD/JPY slid to 82.10. Last Friday the pair tested 82.80 on positive US NFP, but failed to fix there. The pair is testing the levels below the thin H4 Ichimoku Cloud. The technical picture is not so optimistic, but most analysts remain strongly bearish on the yen ahead of the forthcoming election (Dec. 16) and the expectedly dovish BoE meeting (Dec. 20). For example, Morgan Stanley recommends buying at 82.00 with a stop at 81.50 and a target of 84.00. Analysts at Commerzbank give a very similar recommendation: buy USD/JPY at 82.20, with a stop at 81.65 and a target of 85.00 (200-week MA). In their view, the pair will resume the uptrend after some consolidation below 83.12 (2011-2012 resistance). A slide below 81.70 may cause a correction to 80.60. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-10/20553-usdjpy-trading-recommendations Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Dec. 11: Asian session Asian shares edged higher – MSCI Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose by 0.2% hitting successive 16-month highs for the past four sessions. AUD/USD is moving sideways in the $1.0500/0465 area, the market looks indecisive. NZD/USD is currently testing the key resistance of $0.8350. EUR/USD pushed up yesterday from support at $1.2890 and is testing the levels above $1.2950. The expectations of further monetary stimulus from the Fed weight on the greenback. In addition, euro was supported as Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti played down market fears over his decision to resign, saying there was no danger of a vacuum ahead of an election in the spring. In Europe watch the German ZEW economic sentiment index which may post negative reading for a 7 month in a row. GBP/USD is above support of $1.6060 as the bulls aim to test the recent highs ($1.6130). USD/JPY keeps trading sideways in the 81.70/82.80 area. Today the pair’s little changed, at 82.30. USD/CHF weakened to 0.9320 from Friday’s high above 0.9380. USD/CAD slid to 7-week low as Canada’s government approved $15.1 billion takeover bid for Nexen (energy sector) made by Chinese-controlled Cnooc. Later today Canada will release its trade balance, and so will do the US. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here Dec. 11: Asian session // FBS Markets Inc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2800, $1.2850. $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.2965; GBP/USD: $1.5990, $1.6150, $1.6200; USD/JPY: 82.20, 82.50; AUD/USD: $1.0350, $1.0390, $1.0550, $1.0525; EUR/GBP: 0.8095. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-11/20566-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Dec. 12: Asian session Asian stocks advanced, boosting demand for higher-yielding assets. AUD/USD rose above $1.0500 yesterday and reached the highest level in more than 2 months at $1.0540 today. Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics revised up the forecast for iron ore in 2013, the nation’s top export. EUR/USD is hovering around the important $1.3000 level, up from recent Friday lows. Spanish borrowing costs declined: on Tuesday the country sold 3.89 bln euros on a debt auction, what is above the 3.5-bln target. There is also some positive news from Greece. According to reports, Greece has reached the bond buyback target at 31.5 bln euros yesterday, so now the international creditors will be able to unlock the next aid tranche for the indebted country. Watch the euro zone’s industrial production data release today at 10:00 GMT (forecast is positive). USD/JPY rose to 82.65. The pair’s going up for the second day, though remains range bound. Yen weakened after North Korea launched a rocket which passed over Japanese Okinawa and then fell into the sea east of the Philippines. USD/CHF is holding above support of 0.9313 as Swiss banks set charges for deposits in national currency in order to reduce demand for franc. GBP/USD is consolidating above $1.6100 ahead of the important events, scheduled for today. Watch the UK employment data at 9:30 GMT. USD/CAD is hovering around 0.9860: the investors remain indecisive for the third day in a row. The greenback weakened versus most of its main counterparts yesterday amid speculation the Fed will add Treasury purchases to an existing program that buys $40 billion in mortgage bonds each month. The central bank will release its interest rate statement at 17:30 GMT and give press conference at 19:15 GMT. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-12/20580-dec-12-asian-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3075; USD/JPY: 82.20, 82.25, 82.30, 82.40, 82.50, 83.00; AUD/USD: $1.0500, $1.0525; EUR/GBP: 0.8100. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-12/20581-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/USD: hints for today’s trade EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3000 area (psychological level; 200-hour MA; 55-period MA at H4). Commerzbank thinks that euro will be capped by $1.3021/35 on the upside and drop to $1.2880/76. According to the bank, key support lies at $1.2815 and the decline below this level will provoke a slide to $1.2785 (200-day MA) and $1.2661/24 (November/January lows). Further resistance lies at $1.3073/87 and $1.3150/80 and the latter will hold again if reached. The bank is short at $1.2942 with stops at $1.3025 and a target at $1.2665. There’s clearly more volatility ahead of the Fed’s statement (17.30 GMT) and press conference (19:15 GMT). Westpac warns that the FOMC may announce less easing than expected ($30-35bn vs. $40-45bn of Treasury purchases). In this case, we’ll see a brief USD bounce as part of QE4 is already priced in. As we’ve already written today, everyone expects Fed to do more easing. Yet, the Fed likes surprises and there still is a small chance of disappointment. The short-term support for EUR/USD is around $1.2970 and euro remains chances for some more of advance above this level. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-12/20585-eurusd-hints-todays-trade Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. AUD/USD extends gains AUD/USD tested a three-month high at $1.0550, supported by the increasing risk appetite. The pair recovered after a negative reaction on the disappointing Westpac consumer confidence index earlier in the day. However, as can be seen from the hourly chart, the pair is currently oversold. One may see a MACD divergence, so we expect some correction. Aussie is approaching a strong resistance at $1.0580 (2011-12 highs). Large buy stops are concentrated ahead of this level. A rise above $1.0580 would open the way for further growth: watch $1.0625 and $1.0850. A failure to overcome $1.0580 could pull the pair down to below $1.0390 (50% Fibo). A decline below $1.0280 would signal a reversal. Resistance: $1.0560/70, $1.0580 (2011-12 resistance), $1.0600, $1.0625 (Aug., Sept. highs) Support: $1.0520, $1.0500, $1.0460, $1.0390 Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-12/20587-audusd-extends-gains Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Dec. 13: US & Asian session As widely expected, yesterday the Fed replaced the current “Operation Twist” with a bond purchasing program of $45 bln in Treasuries a month. The measure will run simultaneously with $40 bln in mortgage bonds purchases per month announced in September. According to Ben Bernanke, this is not a fresh stimulus but a continuation of the current policy. Investors however, expect the US currency to depreciate further and sold off the greenback before and after the announcement. Today at 13:30 GMT watch the US retail sales data, PPI and unemployment claims releases. High-yielding currencies pared losses as Bernanke’s press conference came to an end, but then returned to slow growth. AUD/USD is again consolidating around $1.0550 after having tested a three-month high at $1.0585. NZD/USD hit $0.8450 (the highest level since February 2012). EUR/USD is trading around $1.3080. Yesterday the pair approached $1.3100 on the Fed's announcement, but then returned lower. The single currency also found support after the EU finance ministers reached an agreement to allow the ECB to supervise banks in the euro zone. The reform requires governments to surrender control over the biggest national banks and is an important step to the banking union. Today a two-day EU Economic Summit starts in Brussels – watch for more headlines. ECB will publish a monthly bulletin at 9:00 GMT. USD/CAD dropped to a new low of 0.9825, but now is trading slightly higher. The pair keeps declining for a fifth day in a row. GBP/USD tested $1.6170 after three days of steady growth, but today slid to $1.6140. The yen kept depreciating even after the QE announcement – worrisome sign for the Japanese currency. USD/JPY reached a 7-month high of 83.65. USD/CHF is trading around 0.9265. The SNB will announce its LIBOR rate and hold a press-conference at 8:30 GMT. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-13/20594-dec-13-us-asian-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. AUD/USD consolidates at $1.0550 AUD/USD is consolidating slightly above $1.0550 after having tested a three-month high at $1.0585 on the Fed’s easing. Aussie is tickling the 2011-12 resistance level at $1.0560. According to analysts at NAB, AUD/USD will retest $1.0625 (September 14 high) in the coming days if the market sentiment doesn’t significantly worsen. Specialists warn, though, that speculative net long AUD positions are at record high, so profit taking could slow a further advance. Some offers are concentrated around $1.0590 (below $1.6000 resistance) – the pair may hold here for a while. Buy stops are seen through $1.0610 ahead of offers at $1.0615/25. On a downside bids are creating support at $1.0530/40. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-13/20596-audusd-consolidates-10550 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/USD: mildly positive for now Hopes of the EUR bears are dashed once again: of course, the euro zone’s economy is in a poor state and everyone surely realizes that. Yet the market just doesn’t start to price in the grim prospects saving this move for later, though many analysts still target $1.2700 for the year-end. Right now USD is weakened by QE4 and EUR is supported by the progress of the banking union affair. The question is how far EUR/USD may go? EUR/USD has been going up since the beginning of the week. On Monday it started at levels below $1.2900 and today it has touched $1.3100. The pair has almost retraced its slide from last Wednesday’s high ($1.3125). The market was gradually pricing in the Fed’s potential additional easing, so the actual announcement though made EUR jump by 50 pips, failed to give the single currency enough strength to overcome resistance around $1.3100. Yet, we saw EUR twice rejected on the approach to that level. The pair looks exhausted on the hourly chart. Support lies at $1.3050, $1.3030 and $1.3000. At the same time, the outlook remains mildly positive as long as EUR/USD is above the latter. If EUR rises above $1.3140, it will retest $1.3200. December PMI due tomorrow might bring some clarity. For now we see our scenario of volatile sideways trade in the $1.3140/$1.2880 area well in place. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-13/20598-eurusd-mildly-positive-now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Dec. 14: Asian session Asian shares steadied as a pick-up in China’s manufacturing sector calmed investors’ sentiment. However, the standoff in the negotiations about US fiscal cliff is supporting demand for the greenback as a safe haven, though USD is still weakened by the Fed’s easing. US House Speaker John Boehner yesterday repeated his insistence that President Barack Obama’s budget proposal is “anything but” balanced and accused the president of not being serious about cutting spending. AUD/USD is trading on the upside below resistance of $1.0560 staying close to more than 2-month highs. NZD/USD is also near 9-month highs consolidating after the recent advance. EUR/USD keeps consolidating slightly below the $1.3100 hurdle. The pair is tickling the 2011-12 resistance line. EUR/USD advanced following the Fed’s QE4 announcement on Tuesday. The single currency is also supported as the EU leaders made some progress in the euro zone’s crisis resolution. However, the first day of the EU Economic Summit showed some important disagreements still persist. Angela Merkel remains opposed to passing new financial liabilities for the German taxpayers ahead of the 2013 elections. Today the summit will continue – watch for more news. Euro zone will also release a bunch of PMIs at 08:00-09:00 GMT and CPI figures at 10:00 GMT. Yen weakened on the expectations that Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party will win Japanese elections this weekend and push the central bank to expand monetary easing. Business sentiment survey for Q4 came much worse than expected supporting this scenario. USD/JPY shoot to 9-month high at 83.90. EUR/JPY rose to the highest level since the beginning of April at 109.84. USD/CHF is testing support area around 0.9230. GBP/USD is trading around $1.6115 with bulls prevailing. Cable slid from Tuesday’s monthly high of $1.6170. USD/CAD is trading under pressure, but is slightly above yesterday’s 7-week low of 0.9825. Watch the Canadian manufacturing data at 13:30 GMT. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-14/20605-dec-14-asian-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. NZD/USD in short and longer term NZD/USD raced up this week conquering 9-months highs. The pair added more than 100 pips since Monday’s opening and is now consolidating in the $0.8460/15 area. BNZ: NZD is benefiting from seasonal demand in December and may rise to 0.8500 before the year-end. January, on the other hand, tends to be negative for kiwi. Investors are starting to wonder if a test of the July 2011 0.8840 post-float high is possible. NZD/USD momentum is certainly positive, but a quick glance at the ‘fundamentals’ suggests a push above $0.8800 could be a bridge too far. Not only are NZ-US interest rate differentials nowhere near as supportive as July 2011, but NZ commodity prices are around 13% off their peaks, and the USD index is stronger. In the short-term NZD looks oversold, so it may take some breath and retrace a bit lower. Below $0.8415 the pair may decline to $0.8355 before resuming advance. On the daily chart yesterday’s candle was shooting star which emphasizes resistance at $0.8460/70 (2012 highs). A breach higher will be a bullish signal. The longer-term outlook for kiwi is positive. Chart. H4 NZD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-14/20607-nzdusd-short-and-longer-term Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3050, $1.3060, $1.3080, $13100; GBP/USD: $1.6115, $1.6150, $1.6160; USD/JPY: 82.75 (large), 82.95, 83.10, 83.50 (large), 83.75 (large); USD/CHF: 0.9350; AUD/USD: $1.0420, $1.0490, $1.0500, $1.0550, $1.0600; NZD/USD: $0.8400; USD/CAD: 0.9990. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-14/20611-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Dec. 17: Asian session USD/JPY opened with a gap up at 84.30, the highest level since April 2011, after closing at 83.50 on Friday as Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party won Japanese elections yesterday giving him a mandate to act on pledges of expanded fiscal and monetary stimulus. The greenback rose against higher-yielding currencies as US budget negotiations continued. AUD/USD is by 30 pips down from the Asian session’s peak of $1.0570. NZD/USD went down to $0.8440, but stays close to 9-month highs hit recently. EUR/USD opened the week with a gap and tested an 8-month high of $1.3195. Later the pair has slid back towards the $1.3150 technical support. The single currency is supported by the positive outcome of the last week’s EU Economic Summit and Eurogroup meetings – the euro zone’s future is starting to look less gloomy. Today there are not much important releases on the agenda, so the markets will be focused on the ECB Mario Draghi’s speech in Brussels (14:30 GMT). Also keep an eye on news about the US fiscal cliff negotiations – we are approaching the year end. GBP/USD touched a fresh 11-week high around $1.6200. USD/CAD is consolidating around 0.9850. Watch the foreign securities purchases data at 13:30 GMT. USD/CHF is at 0.9860. The pair’s trying to recent from the recent lows around 0.9820 and is on the upside, though below Friday’s close. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-17/20621-dec-17-asian-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3000, $1.3100, $1.3150; USD/JPY: 82.5083.00, 84.00, 84.25; AUD/USD: $1.0500 (large); EUR/GBP: 0.8120, 0.8130. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-17/20623-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/USD: news from the battlefield EUR/USD opened the week with a gap up and tested an 8-month high at $1.3187 and then drifted lower to support around $1.3140 closing the gap. During a week to Dec. 11 investors had decreased their net-short euro position 4% to $5.1 billion. Last week’s decisions of European authorities calmed concerns of the market. If euro rises above today’s high, it may rise to $1.3200, $1.3280 and $1.3300. On the downside, further support lies at $1.3100, $1.3050 and $1.3000. EUR/USD still is overbought at H4, though no longer at H1. The room for bearish correction looks limited. The focus today is definitely on ECB President Draghi’s speech at 14:30 GMT. There may also some news about US fiscal cliff as there’s some progress in the negotiations. As for economic releases, watch Empire State manufacturing index. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-17/20627-eurusd-news-battlefield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. RBS: short on EUR/GBP Technical analysts at RBS point out that EUR/GBP approached strong resistance in the 0.8156/63 area and won’t be able to rise above this zone for at least Q1 of next year even longer. As a result the specialists recommend selling the pair with stops above 0.8200 and targeting 0.7757 and 0.7695. Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-17/20631-rbs-short-eurgbp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Dec. 17: European session EUR/USD keeps consolidating around $1.3160 after having tested $1.3190 during the Asian trade. Italian trade surplus was better than expected, while the euro zone’s trade data came below forecast. Euro Stoxx 50 is down by 0.38%. The markets are focused on the ECB Mario Draghi’s speech in Brussels (14:30 GMT). USD/JPY is down by about 50 pips from the opening level, at 83.70. Dollar is moving down to close the week’s opening bullish gap. We expect more downward correction. USD/CHF is moving sideways in 0.9200/9155 area after its 70-pip slide on Friday. AUD/USD looks uncertain in the $1.0570/25 area. GBP/USD returned to the $1.6200 highs after a correction. The pair remains in an upward trend and is moving to the 2011-2012 resistance line at $1.6230. USD/CAD strengthened to 0.9870. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-17/20637-dec-17-european-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Abe vs. Bank of Japan: new round So, as widely expected, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won the Japanese parliamentary elections on Sunday, signaling the Shinzo Abe’s return to power as a Prime Minister and ending the short-term rule of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). Historically, the LDP held the power almost continuously since its establishment in 1955 until it was moved aside three years ago by the DPJ. The current Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda pledged to step down as the DPJ leader after the overwhelming defeat on Sunday. His party, initially seen as a breath of fresh air in Japanese politics, is now considered to be increasingly ineffective. Shinzo Abe as a new Prime Minister is facing an uneasy task of fighting the deflation. He promised to move towards his announced 2% inflation target by means of an aggressive monetary stimulus. Mr. Abe, who plans to form his cabinet on Dec. 26, said on Monday he would like the BoJ to take into account his views on monetary policy during the meeting on Dec.19-20. Will the regulator be forced to ease policy and when it will happen? That’s an important question for currency speculators. The current BoJ governor Masaaki Shirakawa is known as an opponent to Abe’s policy easing ideas and before the election several times underlined the regulator’s independence from the government. The Shirakawa’s term is ending only in April, so Abe risks meeting strong opposition on the issue that allowed him to win the election. The current BoJ Governor will preside over 5 more policy meetings. In case if the BoJ will stand against the easing, Abe threats to revise the 1998 law that gave the institution its independence from the government. Anyway, the change in legislation will take some time. Shinzo Abe, Japan's former prime minister and president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Image: Bloomberg Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-17/20638-abe-vs-bank-japan-new-round Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.3000 (large), $1.3100, $1.3150, $1.3200; GBP/USD: $1.6200; USD/JPY: 83.00, 83.50, 83.75, 84.00; USD/CHF: 0.9265; AUD/USD: $1.0500, $1.0550; EUR/GBP: 0.8180. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-18/20652-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Dec. 18: European session EUR/USD remains in a tight sideways range of $1.3200/1.3150. The pair rebounded from a daily low and is now trading around $1.3180. As can be seen from the daily chart, the pair is overbought. As for the fundamental events, Spain held a successful bill auction today (amount above target, lower yields). Euro Stoxx index is up by 0.51%. GBP/USD is testing fresh two-month highs around $1.6220. The pair remains in an upward trend and is close to the 2011-2012 resistance line at $1.6230. UK November CPI came at 2.7% y/y, what is slightly above the forecast. The majority of main pairs are trading in the narrow ranges. AUD/USD is fluctuating in the $1.0540 area. NZD/USD sits in the 0.8440 zone. USD/JPY keeps consolidating around 84.00. USD/CHF is almost at 7-week lows around 0.9160. USD/CAD edged slightly higher and is trading around 0.9840. There won’t be many significant data releases today, only current account and NAHB housing market index in the US and New Zealand’s current account later. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-18/20662-dec-18-european-session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/USD: prospects have become bullish EUR/USD reached 7-1/2-month high at $1.3255, while EUR/JPY rose to 16-month maximum of 111.75. EUR/USD has managed to close above resistance of $1.3190/3200, so its prospects become bullish and it’s now targeting $1.3280 (May high), $1.3385 (March/April highs) and $1.3485/3517 (February highs; 50% retracement of the decline from 2011 to 2012; 200-week MA). For now euro looks overbought at daily, H4 and H1, so there may be some minor correction. Support for the single currency is now found at $1.3190, $1.3140, $3125 and $1.3100. Watch German December Ifo business climate index (forecast: 101.9; previous: 101.4). The release will be important for euro. Any improvement from November reading should keep the rally intact. There are buy stops at 1.3260 and sell orders in the $1.3280/00 area. There are buy orders in the $1.3220/25 zone. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-12-19/20671-eurusd-prospects-have-become-bullish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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