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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Key options expiring today

 

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2765, $1.2840, $1.2925, $1.2980;

 

GBP/USD: $1.5985, $1.6000;

 

USD/JPY: 81.00, 82.00, 82.25, 82.30;

 

AUD/USD: $1.0335, $1.0400;

 

EUR/GBP: 0.8000.

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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AUD/USD slid back to $1.0350

 

 

AUD/USD slid back to $1.0350 after having touched $1.0400 on positive China’s PMI data.

 

In November the pair remains cramped in the $1.0320/$1.0480 flat range. Aussie is supported by the slightly descending 200-day MA.

 

Today the pair found resistance at 23.6% Fibo retracement from October-November uptrend and close to the previous trend line, coming from October lows ($1.0405). The pair failed to overcome the H4 Ichimoku Cloud. We would recommend you keeping an eye on the $1.0350 level (38.2% Fibo). A slide lower would open the way to $1.0320 (200-day MA, 50% Fibo).

 

Support: $1.0350/45, $1.0320/00.

Resistance: $1.0390/$1.0400,$1.0425

 

audusd_13-29.gif

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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November 23: forex news

 

 

USD/JPY peaked at 82.83 yesterday and is moving down towards 82.00. Yen strengthened versus its main counterparts as technical indicators showed that its recent drop may have been too rapid. In addition, low PMI figures released yesterday in the euro area damped global growth prospects. Japanese markets are closed for Labor Thanksgiving Day. US stock market will be open for half of a day, from 14:30 to 18:00 GMT.

 

EUR/USD is consolidating below the $1.2900 mark. The pair holds above the 200-day MA and is supported even after bad economic releases on prospects finance ministers will agree on an aid package for Greece next week. Today the EU leaders will hold a second round of negotiations on a budget deal. Given the difference of opinions, there is a real chance that no agreement will emerge from the summit. “I believe that the positions are quite far apart, in certain respects,” Angela Merkel told at the end of the first day. Also watch a German IFO business climate survey at 09:00 GMT.

 

AUD/USD remains capped by $1.0400. NZD/USD rose to $0.8165. GBP/USD is trading around $1.5950. USD/CAD is hovering below parity. Canada is scheduled to release CPI data at 13:30 GMT. Yesterday’s retail sales figures were negative. USD/CHF fell to 0.9340.

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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AUD/USD back above $1.0400

 

 

AUD/USD is testing the levels above $1.0400 (23.6% Fibonacci), but still remains in the $1.0320/$1.0480 flat range.

 

The pair rose above the daily, H4 and hourly Ichimoku Cloud, but remains below the previous trend line, coming from October lows ($1.0460). The pair could strengthen to $1.0420 in the near term. We would recommend you keeping an eye on the $1.0350 level (38.2% Fibo, 200-period MA on the H4). A slide lower would open the way to $1.0320 (200-day MA, 50% Fibo).

 

Resistance: $1.0400, $1.0350/45, $1.0320/00.

Support: $1.0420, $1.0460, $1.0480

 

audusd_11-03.gif

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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EUR/USD is testing new highs

 

 

EUR/USD has managed to test levels above $1.2900 today. It retraced 50% of October-November decline and rose above all Fibonacci fan lines. The pair’s now above 200-period MA on H4.

 

Technical picture seems well. Of course, euro is overbought on H4, but it has settled in an uptrend channel and is now targeting $1.2950 (November 2 high, 61.8% retracement), $1.2983 (November 1 high) and $1.3000 (psychological level). For now the prices are right under the 55-day MA ($1.2910), 55-week MA and resistance of the recent uptrend channel. These resistance levels will likely cause euro to go sideways or correct. Support is at $1.2880, $1.2845, $1.2820, $1.2800, 1.2775 and $1.2740.

 

For now the single currency is immune to the euro zone’s economic problems. The market’s able to focus only on one thing at a time when it’s about Europe. For now Greek question seems more urgent. It seems that everyone realizes that euro is vulnerable in the longer term (experts expect Q4 to be the worst quarter since 2009), but is quite keen to join the buying rush. German Ifo business climate, leading indicator of economic health, is coming at 9:00 GMT. Revised data confirmed that German GDP added 0.2% q/q in Q3.

 

h4_eurusd_10-22.gif

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Key options expiring today

 

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2750, $1.2975, $1.3000;

 

USD/JPY: 81.40, 81.50, 82.50;

 

AUD/USD: $1.0300, $1.0400.

 

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Have a profitable trade with FBS!

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Recent market news from FBS

 

 

 

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RBS: trading GBP/USD

 

 

Specialists at RBS recommend selling GBP/USD on rallies to $1.5980/$1.6000, targeting $1.5875 and with a stop at $1.6030.

 

gbpusd_14-50.gif

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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November 26: forex news

 

 

MSCI Asia-Pacific index of shares is up by 0.6%. Markets are hopeful about today’s Eurogroup meeting, but cautious as separatist parties got majority in Spanish Catalonia. AUD/USD is correcting down after it jumped to $1.0470 on Friday. NZD/USD also retreated lower from Friday’s high of $0.8250 (watch for NZ trade balance and inflation expectations tomorrow).

 

Demand for yen is amid speculation that the opposition party that advocates aggressive monetary stimulus by the BOJ will win December elections. The BOJ October 30 meeting minutes shows that a few members of the central bank’s policy board said Japan’s economy entered a recessionary phase, while one indicated the need for new ways to boost price expectations. USD/JPY is down from last week’s high (82.83), but still above 82.00. EUR/JPY reached new 7-month high at 107.13.

 

EUR/USD is consolidating around $1.2950 after having tested a fresh November high at $1.2990 on Friday. The euro came under pressure after the pro-independence parties in Catalonia won a regional vote. What’s more, on Friday the EU leaders failed to fix the budget for 2014-2020. Today markets will focus on the EU finance ministers meeting, where they will once again discuss the Greek tranche. According to Greek paper Kathimerini, an agreement may not be reached until December 3 as the funding gap is wider than Greece says.

 

GBP/USD is trading around $1.6020. On Friday the cable touched $1.6050 after a sharp rise. The pair, therefore, surged to the upper boundary of a downward channel, formed in September. USD/CAD is consolidating around 0.9920 (100-day MA).

 

 

 

 

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RBC: bearish view on EUR/AUD

 

 

Over the last ten days EUR/AUD grew from 1.2200 to 1.2400. The pair is now testing the 200-day MA.

 

According to specialists at RBC Capital Markets, EUR/AUD will soon return to 1.1600. In their view, euro optimism will soon fade away, while the Aussie will remain the highest yielding G10 currency, even if RBA eases.

euraud_11-10.gif

Chart. Daily EUR/AUD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Key options expiring today

 

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2900, 1.2925;

 

GBP/USD $1.5885;

 

USD/JPY: 82.00, 82.50, 82.75;

 

AUD/USD: $1.0300, $1.0400;

 

NZD/USD: $0.8175.

 

 

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Have a profitable trade with FBS!

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Recent market news from FBS

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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November 27: forex news

 

 

Asian stocks rose, MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up by 0.4%. AUD/USD jumped to $1.0489, the highest level since the end of September on the Greek relief. NZD/USD is also trading on the upside, though it hasn’t managed to rise above the recent highs around $0.8250 yet.

 

EUR/USD tested $1.3010 after the EU leaders have finally approved the Greek deal. The country will get 34.4bn euro in December: 10.6 bln euro of budget financing and 23.8 bln euro in EFSF bonds for bank recapitalization. Creditors will cut the interest rate on official loans, extend their maturity by 15 years to 30 years and grant Athens a 10-year extension on interest repayment. Greek debt is expected to be reduced by 40 bln euros to 124% of the GDP in 2020. Market reaction on the announcement is moderate as the decision was already priced in.

 

USD/JPY rose to 82.25, but remains below 100-hour MA and under 7-1/2-month high of 82.84 yen set last Thursday. EUR/JPY is trading in the 106.80 area, not far from the 7-month high set yesterday at 107.13.

 

GBP/USD is consolidating around $1.6035. The markets were surprised by the news that Mark Carney, the current Bank of Canada Governor, will replace Sir Mervyn King as the next Governor of the Bank of England. Today watch the revised UK Q3 GDP at 9:30 (forecast – unchanged at +1.0% q/q). USD/CAD remains around 0.9930 (100-day MA).

 

USD/CHF hit yesterday 1-month minimum of 0.8252. The bulls are trying to hold the pair from further declines.

 

Later today, during American session, watch US data: durable goods orders (13:30 GMT; experts expect decline after solid growth in September), S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (14:00 GMT) and CB consumer confidence (15:00 GMT). The Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at 13:30 GMT.

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Key options expiring today

 

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3000;

 

USD/JPY: 81.00;

 

AUD/USD: $1.0385, $1.0400 (large), $1.0450, $1.0480, $1.0500;

 

NZD/USD: $0.8160.

 

 

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Have a profitable trade with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

Recent market news from FBS

 

 

 

Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-27/20306-key-options-expiring-today

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FX update: European trading session

 

 

US dollar went up versus its counterparts on hawkish comments from Richard Fisher, the FRB President of Dallas, who said that the Fed must soon decide when to end its accommodative policy. USD/CHF jumped up close to 0.9300. USD/JPY is still capped by 82.30.

 

Euro Stoxx 50 index is up by 0.75%. EUR/USD slid back to $1.2960. Traders cited bids around $1.2940 which could limit losses in the near term, reports Reuters.

 

AUD/USD has resistance at $1.0485. NZD/USD is moving sideways around $0.8230. USD/CAD declined slightly to 0.9920.

 

GBP/USD remained unchanged around $1.6030 after the revised Q3 GDP confirmed the economic growth.

 

Later today, during American session, watch US data: durable goods orders (13:30 GMT; experts expect decline after solid growth in September), S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (14:00 GMT) and CB consumer confidence (15:00 GMT). The Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at 13:30 GMT.

 

 

3350_financial-markets.png.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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RBS: cable won't leave the channel

 

 

Specialists at RBS recommend selling GBP/USD at current levels, targeting $1.5916-1.5840 and with a stop at $1.6080.

 

In their view, the top of the downside channel is a good place to sell the cable. Bearish hammer, formed yesterday, confirms this idea. Note that today investors remain indecisive even after the revised UK GDP growth remained at 1% q/q.

 

 

gbpusd_15-45.gif

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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AUD/USD growth slowed at $1.0470

 

 

AUD/USD tested a fresh two-month high at $1.0489 on the news that the EU officials approved the Greek aid disbursement.

 

Aussie, therefore, is hovering slightly above the previous support at $1.0470 (previous November high and August 28 high). The pair is tickling the resistance line (previous support), ascending from the September lows.

 

A clear fix above $1.0470 would open the way to $1.0600. Watch the $1.0535 mark (descending trendline, linking the 2011 and 2012 highs).

 

On a downside the pair is supported by the daily and H4 Ichimoku Cloud, by the crossing 50- and 100-week MAs ($1.0350/35) and the 200-day MA ($1.0310).

 

Support: $1.0470, $1.0437, $1.0423, $1.0400

Resistance: $1.0500, $1.0518, $1.0535, $1.0600

 

 

audusd_16-24.gif

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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EUR/USD looks bearish

 

 

It seems EUR/USD has topped around $1.3000. The bears are now testing support of the 55-day MA (1.2915). Below this level focus on $1.2880 and, if it fails, euro may slide to $1.2825.

 

Support: $1.2889/80 (55-week MA, 20-period MA at H4, late October lows), $1.2825, $1.2800.

 

Resistance: $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3020.

 

From the fundamental point of view, the market’s staring to realize that there are a lot of flaws in the plan for Greece and that Europe only managed to buy to time before the crisis escalates again. In addition, investors are worrying about the euro zone’s economy and US fiscal cliff. Analysts at Barclays Capital think that “uncertainty brought by the approach of the European policymakers makes European assets, including euro, vulnerable to global growth risks, so European muddle through amplifies the market’s response to the fiscal cliff discussion in the US.”

 

 

h4_eurusd_10-55.gif

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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JP Morgan: 2013 targets for forex majors

 

 

 

Just a piece of general knowledge. JP Morgan sees 2013 as the year of modest weakness of US dollar. The bank’s targets for 2013 are:

 

EUR/USD: $1.34;

 

GBP/USD: $1.63;

 

USD/JPY: 79.00;

 

AUD/USD: 1.07;

 

NZD/USD: 0.83;

 

USD/CAD: 0.9600.

 

 

world-currencies.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Commerzbank: bulls on USD/JPY

 

 

 

Specialists at Commerzbank forecast USD/JPY to jump to 85.20.

 

They believe USD/JPY is developing a bullish flag pattern. The pair is currently consolidating below 78.6% Fibo retracement from the March-September decline and the 2011-2012 resistance line (82.40/83.20). A break above 82.40 would confirm the continuation of the bullish trend. The upside is likely to be contained at 85.20.

 

 

usdjpy_12-56.gif

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Australia: on the brink of recession?

 

 

According to analysts at Saxo Bank, Australia has two years to strengthen the economy in order to avoid a recession. If no effective measures will be taken, the country will follow the ailing euro zone.

 

For now Australian economy remains relatively stable, but certain segments of the economy are sending out worrisome signals: mines are closing, people are losing jobs, and households – their homes due to high mortgage rates.

 

Specialists say RBA needs to reduce rates by 1.25 b.p. within a year in order to stimulate economic activity in Australia. The regulator has to move the Aussie down to around $0.8500.

 

Asia’s richest woman and mining magnate Gina Rinehart sounds in tune with analysts: she underlines that Australia risks facing a debt crisis similar to the European one because of overspending and a loss of competitiveness.

 

 

4_australia.jpg

Image: CNBC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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USD/CAD: levels & comments

 

 

USD/CAD breached support at 0.9990 at the beginning of the last week, after that consolidated in the narrow range above 0.9950 and then slid through this mark on Friday. This week the pair’s sitting in a 50-pip range of 0.9950/00.

 

For now we expect the pair to move sideways in the 0.9900/1.0040 area and recommend limiting the trade to short-term intraday swings on risk sentiment.

 

Support: 0.9920 (100-day MA), 0.9905 (yesterday’s low) and 0.9875 (November 7 minimum).

 

Resistance: 0.9960, 0.9990, 1.0000.

 

Scotiabank: “The most important issue for CAD traders is the juxtaposition against the BoC hawkish bias versus the Fed’s notably loose policy, including the likely expansion of QE3 in December. For near-term and medium-term positions, we are biased for USD/CAD downside (CAD strength)”.

 

MIG Bank: “The underlying trend is negative; the rise from 0.9633 is a countertrend move. A medium-term resistance is at 1.0250 (July 12 high)”.

 

 

h4_usdcad_14-40.gif

Chart. H4 USD/CAD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Key options expiring today

 

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2875, $1.2900, $1.2925, $1.2935, $1.2940, $1.2945, $1.30004

 

GBP/USD: $1.6000 (large);

 

USD/JPY: 81.50, 81.55, 82.00, 82.25;

 

AUD/USD: $1.0450 (large).

 

 

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November 29: forex news

 

Asian stocks gained, MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares rose 0.9%; the sentiment is risk-on.

 

President Obama supported the market sentiment by saying that the US “ultimate goal is an agreement that gets the long-term deficit under control.” Obama believes that “both parties can agree on a framework that does that in the coming weeks.” Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner meets congressional leaders today to discuss the fiscal cliff. In addition, the US is expected to release upbeat Q3 GDP figures (cons.: 2.8%; initial reading: 2.0%).

 

AUD/USD is moving sideways in the $1.0485/35 area. NZD/USD is testing Friday’s maximum ($0.8250). USD/JPY is trading in the 82.20/00 area after it tested 1-week low of 81.70 yesterday.

 

EUR/USD is consolidating around $1.2950. Yesterday’s losses were capped by the 50-day MA. On Wednesday the European Commission announced its approval of the plans to restructure Spain's 4 nationalized banks: Bankia, Nova Caixa Galicia, Catalunya Caixa and Banco de Valencia. According to Vice President of the European Commission Joaquín Almunia, the injection of 37 bln euros of the bank rescue would require a 60% reduction in the size of the nationalized financial institutions by 2017. Italy holds a 10-year bond auction today.

 

GBP/USD keeps trading above $1.0600. Investors have been indecisive for three days in a row. The BoE Governor Mervin King will deliver a speech today. USD/CAD is testing the 100-day MA on a downside (0.9920). Canada will release its current account data at 14:30 GMT.

 

 

 

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Key options expiring today

 

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2900, $1. 2920, $1.2925, $1.3000;

 

USD/JPY: 81.60, 81.80, 81.90, 82.25;

 

USD/CHF: 0.9150;

 

AUD/USD: 1.0350, 1.0360, 1.0450, 1.0465, 1.0535;

 

EUR/JPY: 106.75.

 

 

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JPMorgan: USD/JPY will remain stable in 2013

 

 

According to analysts at JPMorgan, USD/JPY will remain directionless in 2013.

 

In their view, the global economy will follow a gradual recovery trend in 2013 and that the euro crisis will not deepen. As a result, risk sentiment will improve and both USD and JPY will come under pressure. USD/JPY, therefore, is expected to remain unchanged.

 

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EUR/USD is supported by good headlines

 

 

EUR/USD rose to $1.2990. There might be sell orders clustered from here to $1.3000.

 

Risk appetite improved after better than expected Swedish Q3 GDP, higher euro zone November economic sentiment and Italian November manufacturing business confidence. German October employment report also came rather well. In addition, S&P affirmed China’s AA-/A-1+ rating with stable outlook.

 

Italian debt auction also went well. The nation sold 5.982 bln euro out of the targeted 4-6 bln euro. The yield on 10-year bonds was lowest since November 2010.

 

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Chart. Daily H1 EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-29/20370-eurusd-supported-good-headlines

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