internationallove Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Commerzbank: EUR/USD will fall to 1.3378/61 The single currency went up from Monday’s minimums versus US dollar in the 1.3430 area rising to the levels near 1.3600. However, technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that as long as the pair EUR/USD is trading below the 20-day MA at 1.3645, its move will be regarded as a correction. The specialists believe that euro will fail somewhere between the mentioned MA and last week’s maximum at 1.3745. According to them, the European currency is likely to fall down to the 1.3378/61 region limited by the 55-day MA and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2011 move. Below this level EUR/USD will slump to the 200-day MA at 1.3122. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6229 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Credit Agricole: outlook for AUD and CHF Currency strategists at Credit Agricole believe that Australian dollar will rise to 1.05 versus its US counterpart by the end of June. In the near term, however, Aussie will find itself under pressure as Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to wait before adjusting its rate policy. The specialists also see the Swiss franc going down as investors are looking forward to the agreement on a permanent European bailout fund at the end of May. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6231 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Pound's up on hawkish comments by Sentence Andrew Sentence, the member of the BoE Monetary Policy Committee, claimed today that the central bank’s inflation forecast released yesterday understate upside risks to inflation. Sentence called BoE inflation outlook “too optimistic”. According to him, in order to meet CPI targets there should be more rate hikes than expected. According to British central bank, inflation will peak at 4.4% this year and before easing to the 2% target level by the middle of 2012 and then even lower. The outlook is based on BoE benchmark interest rate rising from a record low of 0.5% to 1% this year and 2% by the end of 2012. Sentence’s hawkish comments made sterling rise to the day’s maximum in the 1.6130 area. If the pair GBP/USD consolidates above 1.6120, next resistance levels may be founded at 1.6185 (February 7 and 16 maximum) and 1.6230 (February 2 maximum). Support levels are situated at 1.6075/85 (session minimums), 1.5985 (February 16 minimum) and 1.5960 (February 11 minimum). Chart. H4 GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6235 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Investors adjust estimates of the BoE rates hike time The inflation forecast that the Bank of England released yesterday made the economists adjust their forecasts about the terms of the potential rate hike. Generally investors’ expectations of the coming rate hike wave weakened. According to British central bank, inflation will peak at 4.4% this year and before easing to the 2% target level by the middle of 2012 and then even lower. The outlook is based on BoE benchmark interest rate rising from a record low of 0.5% to 1% this year and 2% by the end of 2012. However, the market was still fully pricing in a rate hike by June 9 with at least two 25 basis point rate hikes seen by the end of the year and a 96% chance of rates being 75 basis points higher by January 5, 2012. Some economists also believe that the rate hike will occur sooner than they were thinking earlier. Strategists at Barclays, for example, changed the prediction for the first rate increase from November to May, while the Daiwa Capital Markets change forecast from November to August. It’s not likely that the BoE will raise rates by more than 50 basis points taking into account the country’s weak economic growth, say the specialists. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6236 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Marc Faber: global stock markets will correct down in 2011 Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, who is known for forecasting correctly many significant moves of the market seen in the recent years, believes that in 2011 the global stock markets will survive downward correction. In his view, during the last 18 months we saw huge capital flow in Asia. As a result, the markets became overbought and inflationary pressure has dramatically strengthened. The more such events as those in Egypt occur, the more people start doubting about investing in the emerging economies. According to Farber, money inflows will come back to the developed markets and the US may outperform the emerging economies’ stock markets in the next 3 months. The economist forecasts that MSCI Emerging Markets Index will lose 30% in 2011. As for the US, the S&P 500 index will decline this year by 10%, says Farber. US stocks will be affected by the rising commodity prices, especially oil. The index won’t decrease much as the stocks of oil companies will show strong growth Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6237 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Commerzbank: pound under pressure below $1.6185 Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the pair GBP/USD will stay under bearish pressure as long as it trades below 1.6185. The specialists say that the British pound risks falling to 1.58. If sterling rises above 1.6185, it will get chance to rise to 1.63 where the resistance will intensify. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6239 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 "Societe Generale: comments on USD/CAD"(2011-02-17) Analysts at Societe Generale claim that as long as the pair USD/CAD is trading above support in the 0.9835/0.9820 area, it has all chances to return up to 0.9990/0.9995, especially if it breaks above 0.9915. Currently the pair is close to the 2-week minimum at 0.9831. Chart. H4 USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6241 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 According to the data released today, emergency overnight borrowing from the European Central Bank surged to the 20-month maximum rising above 15 billion euro. The last time it got higher than 10 billion was on June 24, 2009, when it reached 28.7 billion euro. Usually overnight borrowing from the ECB is far below 1 billion euro. It has exceeded this mark twice this year and both times it happened this week. The markets got agitated as the dealers tried to determine whether a bank had made an error in reserves maintenance and tomorrow return to normal levels or if this was an indication of serious problems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 "Gaitame.com: USD/JPY may fall to 81.00"(2011-02-18) Technical analysts at Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd. claim that the greenback may fall to the 6-week minimum versus Japanese yen as the pair USD/JPY is still trading within the “triangular” consolidation formation. The pattern is made up by 2 trend lines – the upper connecting the maximums of September 16 at 85.93 and February 16 at 83.98 and the lower joining the minimums of November 1 at 80.22 and February 4 at 81.13. While the pair USD/JPY is staying in the triangle, it may fall to the levels between 83.5 and 81 getting close to the lower border of this range. As a result, the specialists note that US currency is likely to erase 2.7% gain it made this year. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6252 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 "Gaitame.com: USD/JPY may fall to 81.00"(2011-02-18) The greenback fell sharply this week dropping from 0.9774 to the October minimum at 0.9477. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the pair USD/CHF is going to bottom in this area and reverse upwards compensating the recent loss over the next few days. The specialists believe that US dollar will be able to return to the resistance in the 0.9774/84 zone limited by the January maximum and the 61.8% of the decline from December. In the longer term, USD/CHF will advance to the December maximum at 1.0067 and the 200-day MA at 1.0170. Chart. H4 USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6254 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 "Morgan Stanley: USD/JPY will climb to 93.00 by the year-end"(2011-02-18) Currency strategists at Morgan Stanley believe that although the greenback didn’t manage to break above 84.00 on Wednesday and retreated lower versus Japanese yen, the pair USD/JPY can rise by the end of the first quarter to 86.00 and finish the year at 93.00. Such forecast is based on the expectations that the yield spreads between US and Japan’s bonds will widen helped by the American economic recovery. As a result, Japanese investors will turn to abroad looking for higher yield than those available at the domestic market and the demand for yen will weaken. In the short term, however, USD/JPY will be trapped in its range as US money supply is growing too rapidly and US interest rates are too low, while the real yen’s rate is not as strong. According to Morgan Stanley, yen will be driven in the coming weeks mainly by the global risk environment and investors’ sentiment about the US currency. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6256 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 "Barclays: buy USD versus AUD and NZD"(2011-02-18) Analysts at Barclays advise investors to buy US dollar versus Australian and New Zealand’s currencies saying that there’s the greatest potential in such trading strategy. The specialists believe that the economic growth of the United States may outpace global growth this year. In their view, the greenback that was lagging for a long time begins catching up with the other currencies. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6258 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 "UBS: SNB won’t lift up rates"(2011-02-18) Currency strategists at UBS note that the Swiss National Bank is emphasizing its concerns about franc’s strengthening versus the European currency, so its priority is keeping the national currency from excessive appreciation. The specialists think that it’s very unlikely that the Switzerland’s central bank raises interest rates despite the fact that the country’s economy was outperforming the euro zone’s one during and after the financial crisis. The SNB won’t tighten its policy even in case of an upward revision of its economic growth outlook. Swiss franc rose this week from Monday’s low at 1.3203 to 1.2900 today. Chart. H4 EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6260 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 "China increased banks' required reserves"(2011-02-18) The People's Bank of China raised today banks' required reserves by 50 basis points for the fifth time since October staying keen to its intention to fight high inflation. As a result, the country's biggest lenders will have to store the record 19.5% of their deposits at the central bank removing liquidity from the economy that otherwise would make upward pressure on prices. China’s inflation rate rose from 4.6% in December to 4.9% in January. Currency strategists at RBC Capital Markets expect that Chinese monetary authorities will keep conducting tightening measures such as rates hike, increases of the reserve requirements and more rapid yuan’s appreciation. From the global perspective such policy of the world’s fastest growing economy has a negative impact on commodity prices and the currencies of commodity exporters such as Australia. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6262 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 "Canadian CPI data, USD/CAD range bound"(2011-02-18) Canadian CPI data released today turned out to be in line with the expectations: in January the indicator added 0.3% gaining 2.3% from last year’s level. The core CPI watched by the Bank of Canada to assess inflation trends was below the expected levels: it remained unchanged on the monthly basis showing an annual increase of 1.4%. The market didn’t react much to the release and pair USD/CAD remained at low levels in the narrow range between 0.9820 and 0.9845. Chart. H4 USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6264 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 "Societe Generale: buy euro at 1.34/38"(2011-02-21) Analysts at Societe Generale advise to buy the pair EUR/USD at 1.34 and a sell at 1.38 in the short term. The specialists note that the single currency keeps rebounding from 1.34 helped by the central bank demand. As the Fed’s chairman Bernanke doesn’t regard inflation as the problem for the United States, the country’s monetary authorities are free to promote weak dollar. This, in its turn, will encourage Asian central banks for further euro purchases in order to diversify their currency reserves. Chart. H1 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6269 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-02-21) Weekly GBP/USD As it was expected, Chinkou Span close to the price maximums ob the price chart let the pair GBP/USD gain much during the past week. The bulls have once again started to buy the British currency making its rate rise to 1.6230 versus US dollar. As a result, the general uptrend is still in place and the Ichimoku Cloud is going up. However, all lines are directed horizontally at the moment that means some uncertainty in the middle term. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD On the daily chart the prices left Tenkan-Kijun channel (3, 4) due to the strong buying conducted by the bulls and consolidated above Tenkan-sen (3). The line itself remained heading upwards that with no doubts shows that the market’s willing to continue rising. In addition, Senkou Span A (1) kept widening the Cloud’s range up. That means that the longer-term players have more bullish sentiment. It’s necessary to note that the Chinkou Span left the overbought area. So, this week the uptrend is likely to continue. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-02-21) Weekly USD/JPY On the USD/JPY market there’s the week of correction – the prices have once again returned to the support in the 83.00 area. On the weekly chart this is the level of the Standard line (4) that’s currently directed horizontally. The Tenkan-sen (3) has unexpectedly reversed downwards that may have a negative impact on the sentiment of the short-term players. Taking into account the descending Cloud, it’s possible to assume that the prices will even return to the Tenkan-Kijun channel (3, 4). Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY On the daily chart, as it was expected, the Ichimoku Cloud has almost switched the Ichimoku Cloud upwards – the Preceding lines have intersected and Senkou Span A (1) has found itself above the Senkou Span B. Never the less, the market didn’t manage to reach 84.00, possibly leaving this attempt for the coming week. Taking into account the “golden cross” (5) and the way it has formed, we may assume that the uptrend may continue if the Ichimoku Cloud together with Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are able support the rate. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6275 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF"(2011-02-21) Weekly USD/CHF The pair USD/CHF didn’t manage to hold inside the weekly channel Tenkan-Kijun channel (3, 4) losing last week almost 300 pips and falling to 0.9450. As a result, the weak hopes of the bulls that the marker rebounds didn’t come true once again. As a result, the situation remains rather tense – the pair has dropped to the historic minimums after it was rising for 2 weeks. It’s clear that the bulls have little strength to rebound the market. The Ichimoku Indicator confirms this idea – all lines (except Senkou Span B (2)) head strictly downwards. As a result, this week the greenback may fall to 0.9300. Chart. Weekly USD/CHF Daily USD/CHF Although the market closed the week before last above the daily Senkou Span B (above the Ichimoku Cloud), during the past week the pair USD/CHF found itself under bearish pressure. The marker began easing down as the trade opened on Monday. Even the horizontal Standard line (4) didn’t manage to reduce the sellers’ enthusiasm. As a result, the Cloud didn’t turn bullish as the Preceding lines have also gone down (1, 2). In addition, Tenkan-sen (3) reversed downwards and the “dead cross” may be soon formed. As a result, this week the prices may keep falling to 0.9300. Then the market may start consolidating. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6276 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 "BofT-Mitsubishi UFJ: euro under pressure of Ireland's elections"(2011-02-21) Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ claim that the single currency may get under negative pressure due to the approaching Ireland's general elections that will take place on Friday. The victory of the opposition Fine Gael party would affect euro’s rate. The specialists think that the pair EUR/USD may fall this week to 1.3450. As the Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny said so far, the senior bondholders within other banks aside from the nationalized Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide Building Society could be asked to engage in “burden-sharing” that may lead to the spreading of Ireland's woes elsewhere in Europe. It’s necessary to take into account that German Chancellor Angela Merkel's party was defeated in the regional election in Hamburg on Sunday as the population doesn’t approve that tax money are used to bailout indebted euro area’s nations. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6284 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 "Mizuho: sell USD/JPY"(2011-02-21) Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that the greenback went down from this year’s maximum at 83.98 that’s below December’s maximum at 84.51 and closing at the 26-week MA. The specialists note that all aspects of the weekly chart indicate the necessity to sell US dollars as the pair USD/JPY is consolidating within the “triangle” formation since November. If American currency drops today below 83.00, it will fall to 82.20/82.00, says Mizuho. The bank advises investors to try small shorts at 83.25, adding to 83.55 and stopping above 84.05. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6286 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 "Daiwa SB: yen’s rate will weaken"(2011-02-21) Japanese yen may weaken as the global economy rebounds encouraging the country’s investors to look forward for higher yielding assets abroad reducing their demand for the national currency, claim the analysts at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. The pressure on yen is created due to the widening differential between yields on Treasuries and Japanese government bonds. Investors begin returning to the carry trades borrowing in Japan where the yields are low in order to buy assets in higher-returning countries. In 2011 carry trades with yen as a funding currency brought the profit of 23.8%, while from dollar-funded trades investors gained only 2.8%. Rising popularity of the yen-carry trades means that the Japanese currency to be sold. According to the data from Commodity Futures Trading Commission, for the first time since June futures traders are betting on a drop in yen versus dollar – net shorts for yen were 18,548 February 15, compared with net longs of 36,731 a week earlier. So, the general trend has reversed from what we’ve seen at the beginning of 2010 when investors were looking for a refuge from Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis propelled yen to 15-year maximum versus the dollar. According to the Bloomberg’s data, yen lost 8.1% from its August maximum versus the basket of it 9 developed-nation counterparts. In February the pair USD/JPY has gained 1.3%. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News claim that yen will fall to 86 per dollar by the end of the second quarter and 90 by the end of the year. Currency strategists at Daiwa SB believe that the pair USD/JPY has already hit its lowest point and is now on its way up. Yen’s depreciation will be very positive for Japanese exporters and may help the Prime Minister Naoto Kan to improve his approval rating that declines last month to 17.8%. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6288 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 "Commerzbank: USD/CHF will rise to 1.0067"(2011-02-21) Last week the pair USD/CHF declined almost by 3% falling to 0.9425 earlier today, the minimal level since February 3. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the greenback may reverse after last week’s decline versus Swiss franc and gain 6% climbing to December maximum at 1.0067. The specialists believe that US currency will test resistance at 0.9774 centimes (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from December and January 11 maximum). Chart. H4 USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6290 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 "Ueda Harlow: EUR/USD may drop to 1.2867"(2011-02-22) Technical analysts at Ueda Harlow Ltd. claim that the single currency may fall to 5-month minimum versus the greenback. The specialists note that the pair EUR/USD broke today below the key technical levels – 5-day MA at 1.3628 and the 20-day MA at 1.3641. The momentum deteriorates and euro’s now moving down towards the trend line connecting January 4 maximum at1.3433 and February 14 minimum at 1.3427. If the European currency drops below this line, it may fall to the 1.2969 level hit on November 30 or to this year’s minimum at 1.2867 tested on January 10. The last time euro traded below 1.2867 was September 14. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6296 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 "NZD is falling down after the earthquake"(2011-02-22) New Zealand’s dollar fell to this year’s minimum versus its US counterpart as magnitude 6.3 earthquake broke out in Christchurch, the country’s second-largest city. The pair NZD/USD slumped from 0.7640 getting below 0.7500. Analysts at Nomura Australia claim that damage and disruption from today’s earthquake may lower New Zealand’s first-quarter GDP to the flat level, while earlier they projected 0.8% increase. In their view, the Reserve bank of New Zealand will raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points this year to 3.25%. Earlier they forecasted 3 rate hikes with the first already in April. Analysts at Citigroup expect New Zealand’s central bank to be on hold for all of 2011 and possibly the first quarter of 2012. Economists at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group note that this is already the second strong earthquake after the one that happened on September 4, 2010. The specialists believe that there’s the serious risk that New Zealand will be downgraded. In their view, the government may not be able to achieve the goal of a budget surplus by 2014. Chart. H4 NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6298 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.