internationallove Posted November 8, 2012 Author Share Posted November 8, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. GBP/USD: bearish outlook The British pound printed a fresh two week low vs. the greenback. GBP/USD dropped to $1.5932 as of writing. Note that the pair remains into the middle of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and below the 50-day MA. We maintain a bearish view on the cable. Demand for the pound is down amid speculation that Madrid may not seek a bailout before the end of this year. What’s more, renewed concerns about the US “fiscal cliff” keep weighing on the risky assets. The next downside targets are seen at $1.5912 (August 23 minimum, 50% retracement of an August-September uptrend) and then at $1.5850 (200- and 100-day MAs). On the H4 chart one may see a bearish convergence and on the hourly chart the cable is oversold, so we concede a short-term bullish correction towards $1.5960. Watch the BoE meeting results at 12:00 GMT. The regulator is not expected to ease policy in November, but there is still a slight doubt: recent weak economic data dampened hopes for a sustained economic recovery in the UK. Anyway, QE still remains on the table: the majority of economists believe the BoE may ease in December or early next year. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Chart. H4 GBP/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-08/20000-gbpusd-bearish-picture Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 9, 2012 Author Share Posted November 9, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. November 9: forex news Risky currencies – AUD, NZD and CAD gained supported by the positive US figures (both unemployment claims and trade gap are down). In addition, St. Louis FRB President Bullard said that the Fed is likely end Operation Twist and commit on further QE3. Chinese economic data was quite positive: the nation posted better-than-expected retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment numbers in the year to October. Tomorrow President Obama will make a speech on economy. AUD/USD initially slid to 1.0378 on the RBA dovish minute, in which the central bank cut economic outlook for 2013, but then rose to $1.0430. EUR/USD retraced to the $1.2780 levels after hitting a 2-month low at $1.2717 on Thursday on improved risk sentiment. Euro zone’s uncertainty persists: yesterday the ECB head Mario Draghi said the economic growth will remain weak in 2013. Demand for the euro was also limited after an EU official said a decision on unlocking funds for Greece may not be made until late November. USD/JPY dipped below the 200-day MA yesterday (79.60), but found support around 79.40 and is trading on the upside today. Yen weakened versus its main counterparts on the expectations that data released next week will show that Japanese GDP contracted in Q3 by the most since last year’s record earthquake. GBP/USD returned above $1.6000. Yesterday the pair has formed a long-legged doji candlestick with a low at $1.5928.The sterling is supported by the BoE’s decision to maintain monetary policy. USD/CAD hovers around the 200-day MA (0.9990) after two days of growth. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-09/20011-november-9-forex-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 9, 2012 Author Share Posted November 9, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. USD/JPY: technical & fundamental It seems that during the last 2 weeks USD/JPY has settled in the sideways range between important Fibo levels: on the downside it’s supported by 79.30 (38.2% retracement of the advance from September lows to November highs), on the upside – capped by 80.65 (50% retracement of the decline from March highs to September lows). The indicators on the hourly chart improved. Yet, the pair closed yesterday below the 200-day MA (79.64) for the first time since October 22. Now this line is acting as resistance as well as a hurdle at 79.80 (retracement). There’s the risk of a double top forming if the greenback slides below today’s minimum. Bearish momentum has certainly increased. Next support is around 78.90 (50% retracement, 100-day MA) and then at 78.60 (October 11 high, October 17 low) and 78.30 (January high). Japan releases its Q3 GDP on Monday. If the nation’s economy contracts much – as many fear – yen will get under negative pressure on the expectations of more actions from the Bank of Japan. BOTMUFJ: “We see USD/JPY downside risk being limited as such. This is especially as the balance of flows in Japan continues to reflect a greater degree of outflows.” Chart. Daily USD/JPY Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-09/20013-usdjpy-technical-fundamental Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 9, 2012 Author Share Posted November 9, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/USD: news from the battlefield EUR/USD retraced to the $1.2780 levels after hitting a 2-month low at $1.2717 on Thursday on improved risk sentiment. We remain skeptic towards the euro as the key issues are far from being resolved. There is no really optimistic news here. The ECB head Mario Draghi yesterday sounded worried about the euro zone’s economic prospects in 2013. Spain held a successful bond auction on Thursday, but there is the other side of the ledger: the country has no urgent need to request aid, so there is no bottom to the Spanish story. On Sunday the Greek government will vote for the 2013 budget. The country is unlikely to get the next aid tranche until the end of November. Everyone has already got used to uncertainty about Spain and Greece. But we are getting the first worrying signals from Germany and France, what means that euro zone’s crisis has begun to affect the region’s largest economies. If Germany is not strong enough, that would raise longer-term risk of a break-up in the euro zone and, therefore, pull the single currency down. The forecasts for EUR/USD are mostly negative. For example, analysts at TD Securities see the pair at $1.1800 already in end of Q1 2013. Under the worst-case scenario this forecast looks quite realistic. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-09/20014-eurusd-news-battlefieldl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 9, 2012 Author Share Posted November 9, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. GBP/USD: technical comments GBP/USD slid back below $1.6000 after hitting $1.6018 earlier in the day. Yesterday the pair formed a long-legged doji candlestick with a low at $1.5928. We maintain a bearish view on the cable. The next downside targets are seen at $1.5928 (November 8 low), $1.5912 (August 23 minimum, 50% retracement of an August-September uptrend) and then at $1.5850 (200- and 100-day MAs). Near-term resistance for the pair lies at $1.6018 (daily high), $1.6040 (November 7 maximum) and at $1.6078 (50-day MA). Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-09/20017-gbpusd-technical-comments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 9, 2012 Author Share Posted November 9, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. GBP/USD: technical comments GBP/USD slid back below $1.6000 after hitting $1.6018 earlier in the day. Yesterday the pair formed a long-legged doji candlestick with a low at $1.5928. We maintain a bearish view on the cable. The next downside targets are seen at $1.5928 (November 8 low), $1.5912 (August 23 minimum, 50% retracement of an August-September uptrend) and then at $1.5850 (200- and 100-day MAs). Near-term resistance for the pair lies at $1.6018 (daily high), $1.6040 (November 7 maximum) and at $1.6078 (50-day MA). Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-09/20017-gbpusd-technical-comments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 9, 2012 Author Share Posted November 9, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. USD/CAD: technical picture As we have expected, the pair USD/CAD returned to the parity and closed yesterday above the 200-day MA. On the H4 chart we see a V-shaped bottom. The pair will likely test October maximum at 1.0020 and then 1.0040 (50% retracement of the decline from June maximums to September minimums). TD Securities: USD/CAD breached the bull flag and may rise to 1.0100 and 1.0250 in the next 2-4 weeks (a repeat of the 0.9766/1.0019 move). The greenback will find support at 0.9950, though below this level it will likely slide to 0.9900. “We still prefer to look for USD-buying opportunities.” At the same time, the pair’s approaching the potential reversal zone (PRZ) of the bearish butterfly pattern. From the technical point of view, resistance in the 1.0040/0150 will be really strong. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-09/20019-usdcad-technical-picture Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 9, 2012 Author Share Posted November 9, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. AUD/USD below $1.0400 AUD/USD trades below the $1.0400 handle (50% Fibonacci retracement from a September-October downtrend). The pair remains in an uptrend, but the market has been demonstrating indecisiveness over the last three days. Specialists at RBS recommend going short on the Aussie at current levels with a stop on a daily close above $1.0430 and a target at $1.0330/1.0275. In their view, in the nearest future demand for the high-yielding currencies will remain subdued. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-09/20020-audusd-below-10400 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. November 12: forex news EUR/USD is trading about 40 pips above 2-month minimum of $1.2689 hit on Friday. The Eurogroup meets today to seek a program to maintain Greek solvency. Last week Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras secured support from a majority of lawmakers for the 2013 budget needed to unlock international bailout funds. Yet, the finance ministers may delay Greek aid, the experts say. JPY weakened versus the majority of its counterparts on the discouraging data from Japan: the nation’s GDP contracted by 0.9% in Q3 (cons.: -0.8%; prev.: 0.2%) – at the fastest pace since the record earthquake in 2011. Japanese economy suffered as exports slumped and consumer spending went down. The Bank of Japan’s Governor Masaaki Shirakawa blamed strong national currency for the poor state of Japan’s economy. AUD/USD trades above the $1.0400 mark. The pair moves up after three days of losses as data this week are expected to confirm the expectations that the rates will remain unchanged in December. GBP/USD is above the $1.5900 handle. Last Friday the pair plummeted to a two-month low at $1.5885. USD/CHF is correcting down ahead of the 0.9500 resistance. USD/CAD hovers around the 200-day MA (0.9900) after having hit a three-month high at $1.0030 on Friday. There are bank holidays in the US and Canada today. No major releases are planned for today. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-12/20024-november-12-forex-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. NZD/USD: upside's limited NZD/USD is recovering from 2-week minimum at $0.8123 hit on Friday. There’s an ‘inverted hammer’ on the daily chart and support at $1.8135 (50% retracement of September advance). Yet, the specialists don’t sound very optimistic about New Zealand’s currency. Resistance lies at $1.8185 (38.2% retracement), $0.8200 and $0.8250 (23.5% retracement). BNZ: NZD/USD will be moving sideways and end 2012 at $0.8200. In the near term the declines will be limited by $0.8080. The risk of the RBNZ interest rate cut has become very real after discouraging jobs data released last week, so NZD/USD is unlikely to break out of the top end of the 0.8100/8350 range. On the other hand, improving prospects for the global economy (rebounding China, better US data, stable European debt markets) and rising NZ commodity prices should keep supporting NZD. Westpac: “The likelihood of further weak Q3 data from New Zealand and US fiscal cliff should depress NZD/USD to 0.8060 this week. However, the nation’s Q4 data should be more upbeat, which allows to give positive outlook for kiwi in 2013.” Chart. Daily NZD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-12/20026-nzdusd-upsides-limited Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. AUD/USD: technical update AUD/USD trades above the $1.0400 mark. Last Friday Aussie slid to $1.0360 (100- and 50-day MAs), but bounced back. The market has been demonstrating indecisiveness over the last three days. The pair, however, remains in an uptrend. Nomura strategists see a weekly target for AUD/USD at $1.0330 (200-day MA). In their view, the failure to overcome the upper Bollinger Band means that that it has reached a short term top at $1.0480. Specialists at Westpac also expect the pair to trade in the $1.0300/1.0500 range: the upside will be capped by the US and European woes, while the downside is to be limited by positive news from China. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-12/20028-audusd-technical-update Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. USD/JPY: bullish prospects USD/JPY recovered to 79.50 (38.2% Fib. retracement of the September-November rally). Last Friday the pair formed a “hammer” candlestick and printed a three-week low at 79.10 (50% Fib. retracement). From a fundamental viewpoint, we would expect the yen to weaken further vs. the greenback. However, for now the upside seems to be capped around 80.50/70 – these levels have already acted as a resistance in May, June and November. According to BBH strategists, in the near-term the pair is expected to consolidate in the 79.70/80.00 area. Japan’s preliminary GDP contracted by 0.9% in Q3 (cons.: -0.8%; prev.: 0.2%) – at the fastest pace since the record earthquake in 2011. Japanese economy suffered as exports slumped and consumer spending went down. Data increased pressure on the Bank of Japan to ease monetary policy. In the US the fiscal cliff remains a concern for the markets, but for now they are more focused on Greece. Resistance: 79.65 (200-day MA), 79.90 (23.6% Fib. retracement) and 80.70 (highest since March 2012). Support: 79.10 (50% Fib. retracement), 78.90/80 (100- and 50-day MAs) and then at 78.60 (October 11 high, October 17 low) and 78.30 (January high). Chart. Daily USD/JPY Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-12/20031-usdjpy-bullish-prospects Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. BarCap: USD & this week’s releases Analysts at BarCap pay attention to the economic data released this week in the US. In their view, the focus will be on retail sales (Wednesday): October data will provide first look at whether the recent uptrend in consumption remains in place in Q4 or not. Personal consumption will continue to be the key for US economic growth in the near-term as the outlook for other areas remains uncertain. Barclays has the following expectations: - Headline retail sales: 0.1% (cf. -0.1%); - Core retail sales (ex-auto): 0.2% (cf. 0.3%). If correct, this is likely to be USD-negative, especially versus low-yielding currencies. - CPI: 2.2% y/y (cf. 2/1%); - Philly Fed: 7.0 (cf. 2.0); - Empire state manufacturing index: -4.0 (cf. -7.2); - Industrial production: 0.0% m/m (cf. 0.2%). The FOMC minutes on Wednesday are also worth attention, in particular for any discussion of policy options after the Operation Twist ends. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-12/20036-barcap-usd-weeks-releases Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. FX majors from top forecasters Here are the forecasts for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and EUR/JPY from top forecasters. Data were submitted on November 9. Source: FX Week Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-12/20038-fx-majors-top-forecasters Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. November 13: forex news Asian stocks dropped, yen strengthened versus its counterparts. MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares lost 0.8% falling for a fourth day in a row. AUD/USD keeps consolidating in the $1.0400 area. Australian business confidence registered slightly lower readings in October. NZD/USD is above the recent minimums, but below resistance of $0.8185. Watch for New Zealand’s retail sales data due tonight – deterioration’s expected. EUR/USD has printed a new 2-month low at $1.2670 on increased concerns about potential Greek default. The Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker said the ministers will meet again on November 20 to discuss Greece, putting off a decision on how to cover the nation’s need for money. Greece is now under the direct threat of a default as it has to repay 5 billion euro of debt on November 16. There also is a positive piece of news which was overshadowed by the negative ones: the ministers agreed to give Greece additional two years until 2016 to cut the deficit to 2% of GDP. Today the ECOFIN meeting takes places in Brussels. Also watch the euro zone and German ZEW economic sentiment data at 10:00 GMT. USD/JPY remains under the 200-day MA (79.67) for the third day. EUR/JPY hit 100.40, the lowest level since October 10. Revised Japanese industrial production figures confirmed the 4.1% m/m contraction in September, the biggest drop since March 2011. USD/CHF is testing resistance of 0.9500. GBP/USD tests a two-month low at $1.5855. Today watch British inflation data. USD/CAD consolidates around parity and is slightly above the 200-day MA. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-13/20046-november-13-forex-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2700, $1.2725, $1.2775, $1.2800; USD/JPY: 79.20, 79.40, 79.50, 80.20, 80.35; AUD/USD: 1.0350, 1.0370, 1.0420, 1.0440, 1.0465, 1.0475, 1.0500; EUR/GBP: 0.8100; AUD/JPY: 82.50, 82.60. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-13/20048-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/JPY tested new lows The outlook for EUR/JPY has become bearish. Last week the pair slid below the 200-day MA (102.13) and trend line support. The pair entered the daily Ichimoku Cloud, fell below 101.00 (psychological level) and is currently supported in the 100.60 area (38.2% retracement of the advance from July to October). There’s small bearish conversion on H4 MACD pointing at some scope for upward correction. Commerzbank: “As long as support at 100.60/15 contains the attacks of the bears, EUR/JPY may return up to 102.15/103.00. After a small rebound we expect euro to slide to 99.50/36 (September 11 minimum; 50% retracement, bottom of the Cloud).” Chart. Daily EUR/JPY Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-13/20054-eurjpy-tested-new-lows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. BK Asset Management: buy AUD/USD AUD/USD trades on a downside, but remains above the $1.0400 mark. The Aussie is under pressure as the risk aversion dominates the financial markets. Analysts at BK Asset Management recommend buying AUD/USD on a break above $1.0450, with a stop at $1.0350 and a target of $1.0600. They point at the hedge-funds, who are buying the Aussie. According to specialists, the current pessimism towards the Australian economy and currency is overblown. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-13/20061-bk-asset-management-buy-audusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Greece: auction may be considered successful Greece sold 4.062 billion euro of 1-month and 3-month T-bills to roll over 5-billion issue maturing on November 16. The nation may raise the whole sum (5 billion euro) if all non-competitive bids* are included. * A method of purchasing T-bills without having to submit a price. With a noncompetitive bid, the investor agrees to purchase a given amount of securities at the average price set at the auction. Noncompetitive bids permit small investors to participate in the auction. EUR/USD went up. The pair may correct to $1.2740/50. Above these levels there may be a cluster of offers. Bild Zeitung reportered that Germany wanted to unite 3 Greek aid tranches in one payment of more than 44 billion euro. However, German FinMin spokeswoman said that no final decision yet on Greek loans had yet been made. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-13/20065-greece-auction-may-be-considered-successful Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 14, 2012 Author Share Posted November 14, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. November 14: forex news Yen weakened versus its major counterparts on the expectations of more easing from the Bank of Japan as strong national currency hurts Japanese exporters. Kyodo News reported that Japanese government will downgrade its monthly economic assessment for a fourth month in a row on November 16. USD/JPY rose to 79.50 and is trading 30 pips above yesterday’s minimum. In addition, stocks went up and risk appetite improved. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2% increasing for the first time in a week. AUD/USD crawled up to 5-day highs at $1.0450. NZD/USD is trading on the upside at $0.8170 after it recoiled down from 50-day MA ($0.8200). EUR/USD is trading quietly above $1.2700. Yesterday the pair renewed 2-month low at $1.2660, but then bounced up on positive news from Greece, forming a hammer candlestick. The country seems to have avoided a default after raising 4.06 billion euro in a bill auction to make a 5 billion euro debt repayment on Friday. ECOFIN meeting brought some progress on the Greek issue, though there is still quite a big difference of opinion between the IMF and EU finance ministers. Most analysts remain confident that a deal will be done to release 31.5 billion euro of aid. “Our objective is to reach an agreement on November 20 so that we can proceed to the disbursement of funds by the end of this month”, French finance minister Moscovici said yesterday. Meanwhile, German newspaper Bild Zeitung published an article on Tuesday in which it claims that the Berlin is preparing a 44 billion euro aid payment for Greece, combined from three bailout tranches. Italy holds a 10-year bond auction today. GBP/USD trades below $1.5900 and close to the 100-day MA support. Today watch the UK claimant count change, BoE Governor Mervin King’s speech and the BoE inflation report. The markets are still trying to guess does the regulator have an intention to ease further. USD/CAD declines, but remains above parity after yesterday’s upward move. USD/CHF returned to levels above support (0.9450). The pair’s correcting within an uptrend. Later today there’s a bunch of important data released in the US: core and headline reading of retail sales, PPI & FOMC meeting minutes. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here November 14: forex news // FBS Markets Inc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 14, 2012 Author Share Posted November 14, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2700, $1.2725, $1.2750, $1.2810, $1.2900; GBP/USD: $1.5900; USD/JPY: 79.20, 7925, 79.35,, 79.40, 79.85, 80.00; AUD/USD: 1.0385, 1.0400, 1.0420 1.0450; EUR/GBP: 0.8100; AUD/JPY: 81.00. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: Key options expiring today // FBS Markets Inc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 14, 2012 Author Share Posted November 14, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. EUR/USD: some correction As expected, EUR/USD is correcting upwards after hitting new 9-week minimum yesterday ($1.2650). From the technical point of view, the reason is bearish convergence on H4 MACD. A ‘hammer’ candle was formed on the daily chart yesterday. From the fundamental side, it’s better news from Greece which lifted the market’s mood. The most important thing now is whether the European authorities will be able to decide on the next aid payment for Greece next week (the Eurogroup meets on November 20, volatility’s expected). The negotiations to precise all the details may take longer though. Moreover, the IMF and the euro area have problems in agreeing about the long-term target to bring Greece’s debt down. There’s the risk that Greece only receive enough aid to live through in the short term, until a further agreement with the Eurogroup and IMF. European problems aren’t all here. US fiscal cliff really is a big problem and the uncertainty associated with it may continue encouraging demand for USD. Friday’s meeting between President Obama and Congressional leaders can be very important in this context. In the near term euro may gain, especially if euro manages to rise above $1.2740 as in this case we’ll see more of short covering. Below that level, the outlook remains negative. Traders will likely continue to look for selling opportunities as long as EUR/USD stays below $1.2880 (Oct. 26 low, Nov. 7 high). Break below $1.2660 will open the way for decline to $1.2640 (100-day MA) and $1.2610 (50% retracement of advance from July to September). Chart. Daily EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: EUR/USD: some correction // FBS Markets Inc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 14, 2012 Author Share Posted November 14, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. AUD/USD: technical & fundamental AUD/USD trades on the upside, trying to overcome the $1.0450 resistance (61.8% Fib. retracement from a September-October downtrend). The pair remains in an uptrend since mid-October. The pair is supported by the 50-, 100- and 200-day MAs in the $1.0360 area. A close above $1.0480 could pave the ground for further growth. The next targets are seen at $1.0518 (September 21 high) and $1.0620 (August and September highs). The overall fundamental picture seems to be Aussie-positive. Greek problems eased at least for a while, supporting demand for the high-yielding currencies. Today’s data show Westpac consumer sentiment rose by 5.2% in November – highest since November 2011. Ratings agency Moody’s said the country is highly likely to keep its AAA ratings in the foreseeable future. What’s more, there is a market speculation that the Russian central bank adds Australian dollars to its foreign reserves. Some specialists remain bearish on the Aussie: Australian wages growth slowed to 3.7% y/y in Q3, opening way to further RBA easing. Analysts at ANZ still expect the RBA to cut rates by 0.25% on a December meeting. NAB Strategists agree: in their view, low WPI is likely to keep rate cut hopes and hinder AUD/USD to retest $1.0480 (November 7 high). Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-14/20084-audusd-technical-fundamental Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 14, 2012 Author Share Posted November 14, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. Goldman: long-term bullish on EUR Analysts at Goldman Sachs always think somewhat different. The specialists maintain their 3-, 6- and 12-month forecasts for EUR/USD at $1.25, $1.33 and $1.40 respectively. The specialists point out that US balance of payments tends to weaken compared to stronger trend for the euro area, so this will create negative pressure on USD. Goldman acknowledges the ongoing implementation risk in the euro area and the negative effects on the region’s economic growth created by the severe austerity measures as such factors affect risk sentiment and thus strengthen USD. Yet, in the longer term analysts think that gradual progress with deeper integration in the euro area, which should ultimately boost EUR. The US reported a current account deficit equivalent to $117.40 billion in Q2, while the euro area posted surplus of 13.8 billion euro. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-14/20087-goldman-long-term-bullish-eur Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 15, 2012 Author Share Posted November 15, 2012 Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc. November 15: forex news EUR/USD is consolidating around $1.2740 after it tested $1.2780 yesterday. The market’s panic caused by the threat of Greek default stepped away. As for Spain, EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said on Wednesday that it doesn’t need to make a bailout request in the nearest future. Renn underlined that the nation has taken effective action on budget deficits in 2012 and 2013, though it would fail to meet the deficit target for 2014. The progress of Spanish budget consolidation will be evaluated once again by the EU in February. Yesterday workers from several European went on a coordinated strike in order to protest against the harsh austerity measures implemented by national governments in response to the financial crisis. Today euro zone will publish a bunch of important statistics (preliminary Q3 GDP figures, ECB monthly bulletin, CPI). USD/JPY rose to 6-month high at 80.92 on prospects that Japanese elections next month will hand power to the opposition Liberal Democratic Party that advocates more aggressive monetary easing. Yen made the biggest 2-day drop since March. The LDP’s leader Shinzo Abe is calling for a 3% inflation target. AUD/USD didn’t manage to hold above $1.4050 on Wednesday and has slid to $1.0360 today. The RBA’s report on foreign-exchange transactions showed that the central bank sold A$483 million ($501 million) more Australian currency than it bought in October through the so-called other outright transactions category, which can include foreign central banks (maximum since June 2009). Asian stocks declined ahead of US President Barack Obama’s budget discussions with congressional leaders tomorrow. GBP/USD is trading close to a 2-month low at $1.5835. The pair moved up slightly after 6 days of losses. Watch UK retail sales data at 9:30 GMT. Moody’s warned UK could lose its AAA status in 2013 if it enters a triple-dip recession. USD/CAD is trading slightly below a fresh 3-month high at $1.0040. Yesterday we saw weak retail sales data in the US. FOMC Oct. 23-24 meeting minutes showed that a number of the Fed’s officials said the central bank may need to expand its monthly purchases of bonds. Today watch for American CPI and manufacturing indices. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-11-15/20097-november-15-forex-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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