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"September 7: forex news"(2012-09-07)

 

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September 7: forex news

 

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Market’s optimism was ignited yesterday as the ECB announced its OMT plan or Outright Monetary Transactions which includes unlimited purchase of government debt. The program should help to reduce interest rates for troubled euro zone nations and prevent their exit from the monetary union.

 

Demand for haven assets declined and equities gained. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks added 1.9% after increasing by the same amount on Thursday. Spanish 10-year yield slid yesterday to the minimal level since June 11 just above 6%. Italian 10-year yields fell to the minimum since April 4.

 

EUR/USD is consolidating above the previous resistance of $1.26 after it closed at the highest level since July 7 on Thursday. AUD/USD pushed upwards correcting after an overdone decline. Aussie managed to rise today above the 200-day MA at $1.0316. USD/JPY is consolidating below yesterday highs at 79 yen after adding about 60 pips on Thursday. GBP/USD keeps moving slowly higher after the Bank of England lest its policy unchanged yesterday. USD/CAD is on the downside close to the key support at 0.9800. Watch for Canadian employment data later today as well as US releases.

 

The market’s attention will be focused on US Non-Farm Payrolls report (cons.: 123K; prev.: 163K) which will be use by the markets players to judge the timing of the Fed’s QE3 Program. According to the forecasts, jobs growth slowed in August being not high enough to reduce the unemployment rate which stays above 8% since early 2009. NFP is always hard to predict. Bear in mind that ADP employment report painted a more optimistic picture of the American labor market than expected.

 

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"NZD/USD: Elliot waves (Westpac)"(2012-09-07)

 

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NZD/USD: Elliot waves (Westpac)

 

 

 

Analysts at Westpac suggest that NZD/USD remains in a very broad upward trend since March 2009. In their view, the triangular consolidation since August 2011 appears to be a correction of the rally from May 2010 – the fourth corrective Elliot wave which may be subdivided into 5 smaller waves. Any eventual breakout from the triangle “should be upwards in a fifth and final wave to fresh record high, probably in 2013.”

 

bezymyannyy45.png

 

 

 

Chart. Weekly NZD/USD

 

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"Westpac, UBS about NFP and QE"(2012-09-07)

 

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Westpac, UBS about NFP and QE

 

 

Analysts at Westpac claim that market's participants generally think that US August non-farm payrolls will show a stronger reading than economists’ consensus of 123K, given the better ADP survey and also the non-manufacturing ISM. However, the specialists expect NFP of 80K. In their view, the odds are towards more QE from the Fed. The serious doubts about the Fed’s easing may arise only if payrolls reach 185K. “Even a strong payrolls headline might not impact Bernanke’s inclination towards easing” as the unemployment will likely remain above 8%.

 

Strategists at UBS think that the NFP number has to be very strong to support the greenback.

 

EUR/USD keeps moving within the recent uptrend.

 

 

h1_eurusd_13-12.gif

 

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

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"NZD/USD: short-term technical picture"(2012-09-07)

 

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NZD/USD: short-term technical picture

 

 

Improved risk sentiment made NZD/USD recoil up from its 100-day MA. The pair’s rising for the third day in a row. Wednesday’s daily candle looks like a ‘hammer’.

 

Kiwi approached resistance of $0.8045 (mid-August minimums). If New Zealand’s dollar overcomes this obstacle, it will get chance to rise to $0.8100 and $0.8145. However, resistance band of $0.8045/69 looks fairly strong – highs and lows of the last 2 months area clustered in this area. If NZD/USD fails to het higher, the pair will confirm a double top in August and will be poised for a decline to $0.7840 (July 24 minimum).

 

The prices have subsided to the levels right below the 50-day MA at $0.8035 for now. Support for the pair lies at $0.7985 (200-day MA) and $0.7925 (100-day MA).

 

daily_nzdusd_14-00.gif

 

 

 

Chart. Daily NZD/USD

 

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"Credit Suisse: bullish on EUR/USD"(2012-09-10)

 

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Credit Suisse: bullish on EUR/USD

 

 

 

Specialists at Credit Suisse recommend buying EUR/USD at current levels, targeting $1.2985 and with a stop at $1.2595.

 

In their view, a break above the target may even bring the pair to $1.3284. The $1.2638-1.2645 support area is likely to limit the downward correction. However, a break below this area may mean the continuation of ta medium-term downtrend.

 

eurusd_1009.gif

 

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

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"Citigroup: outlook for USD/JPY"(2012-09-10)

 

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Citigroup: outlook for USD/JPY

 

 

Citigroup analysts expect USD/JPY to slide to 77.66 yen (June 1 minimum). In their view, in the next weeks the pair will trade in the 77.66-79.00 range.

 

Taking into account the improved market sentiment and the QE3 expectations, US bond yields and, consequently, USD/JPY are unlikely to drop in the nearest future. However, QE3 is expected to weigh on the greenback.

 

usdjpy_1009.gif

 

 

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

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"HSBC: beware the USD!"(2012-09-10)

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HSBC: beware the USD!

 

 

According to specialists at HSBC, in the neareast future the greenback will come back into the limelight.

 

In their view, for some time the US fiscal problems remained in the shadow because of the euro zone's debt concerns. However, as we approach the US elections in November, the market attention will switch to the US fiscal cliff. American authorities will have to choose between fiscal austerity and the debt growth. What's more, the widely-expected QE3 will be negative for the greenback and will encourage the risk-on trade.

 

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Image: The Telegraph

 

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"JP Morgan: EUR/USD uptrend is limited"(2012-09-10)

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JP Morgan: EUR/USD uptrend is limited

 

 

Despite the overall market optimism, analysts at JP Morgan point that the EUR/USD rally is limited. Specialists expect the pair to trade at $1.24 by the end of the year. In their view, the unwillingness of Spain and Italy to request a resque from EFSF will weigh on the single currency. Moreover, ECB is likely to cut rates next month.

 

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"September 11: forex news"(2012-09-11)

 

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September 11: forex news

 

 

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On Tuesday EUR/USD trades below the $1.2800 mark and the 200-day MA after touching $1.2808 yesterday. The pair weakened from a three-month high as investor’s optimism on the issue of the euro crisis resolution declines. Improvement in German wholesale price index didn’t influence the pair much (+1.1% in August; prev. and forecast: +0.3%). This week the risk sentiment will highly depend on 2 major events: German Constitutional Court decision on ESM (Wednesday) and FOMC meeting results (Thursday). The main driver for the pair in a longer prospect remains whether or not Spain and Italy will request to participate on the EFSF program.

 

AUD/USD moves down for a second consecutive day as increased China concerns sapped demand for the risky assets. The pair trades below $1.0350 and remains cramped between the 50- and 200-day MA. NZD/USD moves up; yesterday the pair didn’t manage to fix above $0.8100. USD/CAD trades at the lowest level since August 2011. USD/JPY remains relatively flat around 78.20 level, while GBP/USD rose above $1.6000.

 

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"Key options expiring today"(2012-09-11)

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Key options expiring today

 

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

USD/JPY: 79.00

GBP/USD: $1.5950, $1.5805, $1.5700

EUR/GBP: 0.7930, 0.8000, 0.8015

AUD/USD: $1.0325, $1.0300, $1.0250, $1.0200

NZD/USD: $0.8110.

 

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"Analysts: EUR/USD prospects"(2012-09-11)

 

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Analysts: EUR/USD prospects

 

 

 

 

NAB: Our near term target for the pair is $1.2840. The German Court on Wednesday is likely to announce a positive verdict on the ESM. On Thursday the Fed will announce the QE3.

 

Commerzbank: EUR/USD is expected to cap at $1.2834/36 (crossing of the 200-day MA and the November-September resistance line).

 

UBS: With the expectation that the Fed will launch the QE3, we think EUR/USD is likely to trade in a $1.25-1.35 range from one to three months. However, we continue to see a stronger greenback in the longer term as the US economy recovers.

 

eurusd_12-32.gif

 

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

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"GBP/USD: technical comments"(2012-09-11)

 

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GBP/USD: technical comments

 

 

On Tuesday GBP/USD trades above $1.6000 and close to a four-month high. Today the pair has nearly tested resistance at $1.6033 (September 7 maximum). Sterling was supported by the positive UK trade balance data (-7.1B in July; forecast: -8.9B).

 

Commerzbank analysts remain bullish on GBP/USD until it trades above $1.5912 (August maximum). In their view, the pair is likely to be capped at $1.6081 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s decline). The next resistance lies at $1.6181 (May 10 maximum) and at $1.6300 (April maximum).

 

 

gbpusd_13-20.gif

 

 

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

 

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"Euro and the German Constitutional court"(2012-09-11)

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Euro and the German Constitutional court

 

 

 

Germany's Constitutional Court holds the fate of the euro in its hands: will the the court give a green light to the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) on September 12?

 

The most likely scenario is that the court will ratify the ESM, but with comments, which will slow down the ESM operations.

 

However, according to economists at Morgan Stanley, the probability of a negative verdict is 40%.

 

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Cartoon: The Cagle Post

 

 

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"EUR/USD: contradictory picture"(2012-09-11)

 

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EUR/USD: contradictory picture

 

 

 

On Monday EUR/USD rallied to $1.2836 on Moody’s US rating warning. The pair managed to test the 200-day MA (currently at $1.2833) for the first time since October 2011. Then the single currency two days traded above the MA before entering a resilient bearish trend. What’s more, today EUR/USD approached the resistance of a trend line, connecting February, April and May maximums ($1.2860). As can be seen from the daily chart, the RSI indicator is above 70, what means that the pair is overbought.

 

From the technical point of view, it seems logical to expect a sell-off at current levels. However, we don’t have to forget about the widely-expected US QE announcement on Thursday which is to weaken the greenback.

 

eurusd_17-56.gif

 

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

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"September 12: forex news"(2012-09-12)

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September 12: forex news

 

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On Wednesday the risk sentiment is positive ahead of the two key forthcoming events: today the German Constitutional court is expected to give a positive verdict on ESM, while tomorrow the markets expect the Fed to announce QE3. These events may define the further direction of the single currency. On the back of the market optimism EUR/USD opened a new four-month maximum at $1.2882. Yesterday the pair closed the day above the 200-day MA for the first time since October 2011.

 

High-yielding currencies are strong today. AUD/USD reached $1.0480 after a two-day growth, while NZD/USD – to $0.8210. USD/CAD opened a new low at 0.9715 (minimum since August 2011).

 

GBP/USD opened a new four-month high at $1.0685 after UK trade deficit shrank. USD/JPY trades on the upside below 78.00; yesterday the pair didn’t manage to break the 77.65 support (June low).

 

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"Key options expiring today"(2012-09-12)

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Key options expiring today

 

 

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2850, $1.2800, $1.2715, $1.2700

USD/JPY: Y78.00, Y79.00

EUR/JPY: Y99.70

GBP/USD: $1.5975, $1.5950

AUD/USD: $1.0475, $1.0370

 

 

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"BNP Paribas: trading NZD/USD"(2012-09-12)

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BNP Paribas: trading NZD/USD

 

 

Analysts at BNP Paribas recommend going long on NZD/USD at current levels with a stop at $0.7965 and a target of $0.8470 as they expect a QE3 announcement this week.

 

nzdusd_11-53.gif

 

 

Chart. Daily NZD/USD

 

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"USD/JPY: technical comments"(2012-09-12)

 

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USD/JPY: technical comments

 

 

On Wednesday USD/JPY trades on the upside below the 78.00 level. Yesterday the pair approached the 77.65 support, but didn’t manage to break below.

 

According to specialists at Commerzbank, USD/JPY moves towards 77.65 (June 1 minimum). The next target lies at 76.02 (2012 minimum). Analysts will be bearish on the pair while it trades below 79.03.

 

usdjpy_12-44.gif

 

 

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

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"Germany can ratify ESM"(2012-09-12)

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Germany can ratify ESM

 

 

EUR/USD opened a new four-month high at $1.2905 as Germany's Constitutional Court ratified the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the fiscal pact.

 

However, the court has set certain conditions. Firstly, German liability has to be limited to 190 billion euros, as agreed in the ESM treaty. Moreover, both houses (Bundestag and of Bundesrat) have to be informed and consulted on the ESM's activities. We should note that the conditions of ratification could have been much stricter.

 

0,,16233388_401,00.jpg

 

 

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"AUD/USD extends the upside"(2012-09-12)

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AUD/USD extends the upside

 

 

 

Last days were positive for the Australian currency: AUD/USD has finally reached the $1.0500 mark. Today the pair managed to overcome a strong resistance at $1.0475 (April maximums followed by a downtrend). Next resistance is seen at $1.0528 (August 17 maximum), $1.0544 (August 23 maximum) and $1.0612 (August 9 maximum). It is necessary to note that on the upside the pair is also limited by the trend line, connecting 2011 and 2012 maximums.

 

Analysts at Westpac recommend buying AUD/USD at current levels, setting a stop at $1.0220 and a target of $1.0600. They expect the high-yielding Aussie to react strongly on the tommorow Fed's announcement.

 

audusd_14-07.gif

 

 

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

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"Nomura: EUR and GBP are to weaken"(2012-09-12)

 

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Nomura: EUR and GBP are to weaken

 

 

 

Today the risky assets cheered the markets up: EUR/USD overcame the $1.29 mark, while GBP/USD – the $1.6. However, specialists at Nomura recommend to get rid of the dangerous illusions: the period of EUR and GBP strength is coming to an end. Their advice is to close the long positions and to look for selling opportunities.

 

In their view, positive German court decision on the ESM and the QE3 announcement on Thursday may create a short-term support for the currencies, but anyway the effect will be limited by the weakness of the global economy. Unfortunately, the events of this week have nothing in common with the structural rebound of the euro zone, so euro and sterling will soon enter the downtrend.

 

nomura_1437833c.jpg

 

 

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"September 13: forex news"(2012-09-13)

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September 13: forex news

 

 

 

utro_eng.jpg

 

 

On Thursday the market attention is compelled to US: will the Fed announce a third round of bond purchases (QE3)? According to a Bloomberg survey, two-thirds of economists expect the regulator to announce a third round of easing and to extend the duration of its low-rate policy into 2015. The question is how much the easing can really influence the market if the FOMC decision is already priced in? Ahead of the event EUR/USD continues to move higher and has already reached a new four-month high at $1.2929.

 

High-yielding currencies remain strong: AUD/USD trades at the $1.0470 levels, while NZD/USD – above $0.8200. Today the RBNZ left the interest rate unchanged at 2.50%, but we’ve heard some dovish comments concerning the expensive kiwi and Chinese threat. USD/CAD has strengthened from its lowest level since August 2011 (on Monday the pair fell to $0.9712). GBP/USD trades above $1.6100. USD/JPY moves down and is very close to the 77.65 support.

 

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"Key options expiring today"(2012-09-13)

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Key options expiring today

 

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

 

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2900, $1.2875, $1.2850, $1.2800 (exotic); $1.2900

GBP/USD: $1.6000, $1.5920, $1.5800

AUD/USD: $1.0400, $1.0450, $1.0460, $1.0500, $1.0515

USD/JPY: 77.75, 78.00, 78.70

EUR/JPY: 100.25

EUR/GBP: 0.7950

EUR/CHF: 1.2070

 

 

 

flatline.jpg

 

 

 

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"Ahead of FOMC: big day for EUR/USD"(2012-09-13)

 

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Ahead of FOMC: big day for EUR/USD

 

 

On Thursday EUR/USD is moving around the $1.2920 mark with a daily maximum at $1.2930. It seems the pair has chosen this area to wait for the FOMC outcome (14:30 GMT). On the upside the single currency is limited by the 61.8% Fib. retracement of a 2012 decline. The pair remains above the 200-day MA for the third consecutive day. What’s more, yesterday EUR/USD overcame the trend line, connecting February, March and May maximums, supported by the positive German court decision on the ESM. As can be seen from the daily and the H4 chart, the pair is strongly overbought. On the H4 it is supported by the up-directed 50-, 100- and 200-period MAs.

 

Most analysts believe the next EUR/USD direction will be determined by the FOMC decision on the US monetary policy. According to BNZ specialists, markets have already priced in much of the QE, so the pair’s rise on the easing may be modest. No QE announcement will move the pair down. However, if there’s no immediate easing, the Fed is likely to extend the zero-bound rate policy to 2015, what will iron out the market disappointment.

 

 

eurusd_12-45.gif

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

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"UBS: is the EUR growth sustainable?"(2012-09-13)

dailymarketanaylysis.png

 

 

 

UBS: is the EUR growth sustainable?

 

 

 

Specialists at UBS recommend going short on EUR/USD at $1.3000, targeting $1.2500 and with a stop at $1.3120.

 

They expect the Fed to ease today and to extend a bond-buying program by $500 billion. However, their long-term EUR/USD view is bearish: they see current euro rally as a correction within the 2011-2012 downtrend (not the first one, see the graph below). The rally is caused by a bunch of euro-positive news, but the Fed announcement is likely to be the last cheering event.

 

eurusd_14-02.gif

 

 

 

Chart. Weekly EUR/USD

 

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Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-13/19182-ubs-eur-growth-sustainable

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