internationallove Posted August 31, 2012 Author Share Posted August 31, 2012 "EUR/USD close to 8-week highs "(2012-08-31) EUR/USD close to 8-week highs EUR/USD rose to 100-day MA at $1.2582, but then declined as the sell orders clustered in the $1.2580/00 area come into play. According to flash estimates released today, euro zone’s CPI edged up to 2.6% in August (cons.: 2.5%; prev.: 2.4%). Euro zone unemployment rate remained unchanged in July at 11.3%. Euro increased ahead of Ben Bernanke’s speech in Jackson Hole. US dollar weakened against all but two of its 16 major counterparts after Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said that US central bank has a tough decision on whether to add further stimulus to promote a stronger economic recovery. Still… "We're not expecting him (Bernanke) to announce that QE would start any time soon," Christian Schulz, senior economist at Berenberg Bank. "We expect him to announce that the Fed stands ready to act if things deteriorate but there's no sign of that at the moment. Those people who are betting on QE to start imminently will be disappointed and, yes, that would mean that markets would turn south.” Daily EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-31/19022-eurusd-close-8-week-highs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 31, 2012 Author Share Posted August 31, 2012 "Market talk: Buba's Weidmann may resign "(2012-08-31) Market talk: Buba's Weidmann may resign There’s talk of Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann’s potential resignation. It’s a common knowledge that Weidmann has negative attitude towards the ECB’s bond purchase program as he sees it “too close to state financing via the money press.” To satisfy Bundesbank, the ECB President Mario Draghi might have to put a lot of conditions in the program risking diminishing its impact considerably. A Bundesbank spokesman declined to comment on a report in the Bild newspaper. Weidmann told Der Spiegel on Sunday: “I can do my task best if I stay in office. I want to work to ensure that the euro is just as hard as the mark was.” We think the odds are that Weidmann won’t give up keeping pressuring Draghi. Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-08-31/19024-market-talk-bubas-weidmann-may-resign Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 3, 2012 Author Share Posted September 3, 2012 "AUD/USD keeps on falling"(2012-09-03) AUD/USD keeps on falling During the last days the Australian dollar has been a weak performer. AUD/USD has left the June-August upward channel and decisively moves down. On Monday the pair opened a new 5-week minimum at $1.0240 on the negative data releases. The pair trades below the 200-day MA. Next support lies at $1.0205 (100-day MA), $1.0176 (July 25 minimum) and $1.0100 (July 12 minimum). On the H4 chart we can see a bearish convergence, so a correction towards $1.0340 is possible. Most analysts are bearish on the pair’s longer term prospects. For example, specialists at UBS expect AUD/USD to reach parity before the end of 2012. In their view, falling commodity prices and worrying China economic data will weigh on the pair. Strategists at Westpac also believe the pair is moving towards $1.0000/0100. Tomorrow the RBA will hold a meeting for a policy decision. According to most economists, the regulator is likely to keep the cash rate at 3.50%. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-03/19034-audusd-keeps-falling Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 3, 2012 Author Share Posted September 3, 2012 "FX majors from top forecasters"(2012-09-03) FX majors from top forecasters Here are the forecasts for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and EUR/JPY from top forecasters. Data were submitted on August 31. Source: FX Week Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-03/19035-fx-majors-top-forecasters Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 3, 2012 Author Share Posted September 3, 2012 "UBS, HSBC: Grexit is not an option"(2012-09-03) "UBS, HSBC: Grexit is not an option"(2012-09-03) Many analysts say that the odds of Greece leaving the euro area have diminished considerably ahead of the Troika (the European Commission, the IMF and the ECB) review of Greek finances and its progress in meeting its repayment require¬ments to its European lenders. The final report is expected by the beginning of October. UBS: “In the short time span between March and today, the euro crisis has escalated to such an extent that, even theoretically, a Greek exit is no longer an option. The risk would be very high that it could lead to the euro¬zone unravelling altogether, because markets would see little reason why Greece can exit but Portugal, Spain and Italy cannot.” At the same time, the ECB meeting on September 6 distracts the market’s attention from the Troika. HSBC: “In more normal circumstances, the Troika report would be at the sharp end of market focus. But the reason it might not be is because there is so much else going on at the same time, with the ECB and Federal Reserve meetings taking place, so there are rather large distrac¬tions that might diminish the market’s fixation. If it were a quieter time, we would be hanging on every word of the Troika review. If the money for Greece is released then it is one less banana skin for the euro, so if the Troika report is positive, or at least neutral, then that will be good for the euro. If it isn’t, that would be a real headache for the mar¬ket because we have got used to the idea that Greece is a manageable crisis. If it looked like bail-out money would be stalled indefinitely, you would open up another unpleasant chapter in the crisis. For that reason it is not the most likely out¬come.” This image by the anonymous artist known as Colonel Flick aka Willimabanzai7 Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! Recent market news from FBS Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-03/19038-ubs-hsbc-grexit-not-option Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 4, 2012 Author Share Posted September 4, 2012 "Key options expiring today"(2012-09-04) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2500, $1.2540, $1.2550 (large), $1.2600, $1.2700; USD/JPY: 78.00, 78.45, 79.00, 80.00 (large); USD/CHF: 0.9540, 0.9750; AUD/USD: $1.0325; EUR/JPY: 96.00; EUR/GBP: 0.8005. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! http://www.fbs.com/analytics Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-04/19050-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 4, 2012 Author Share Posted September 4, 2012 "BoA, Barclays, SocGen: ideas about the ECB"(2012-09-04) BoA, Barclays, SocGen: ideas about the ECB Bank of America Merrill Lynch: “The ECB bond buying plan at its meeting on Thursday is likely to disappoint. Further clarification is expected on the ECB’s seniority status; the type of purchased securities, which markets understood as specifying the maturity of sovereign bonds to be purchased; and perhaps the amount of securities to be purchased. In our view markets may be expecting too much transparency from the ECB in the absence of any formal request for EFSF/ESM support. The likely market disappointment should intensify the pressure on Spain to request a new program, but concrete moves will have to wait for the German constitutional court’s ruling on the ESM on September 12. The ECB may cut its refi rate by 25bp to 0.50%.” Barclays and Societe Generale: The ECB will wait until the German constitutional court decision on September 12 to give full details of its actions. Societe Generale: “While the ECB’s announcement of a new bond buying program was welcome, there’s the risk that other good news will be slower in coming.” “Draghi will be vague and he should be,” says Unicredit. Image from economist.com Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! http://www.fbs.com/analytics Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-04/19053-boa-barclays-socgen-ideas-about-ecb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 4, 2012 Author Share Posted September 4, 2012 "Commerzbank: outlook for AUD/USD"(2012-09-04) Commerzbank: outlook for AUD/USD On Tuesday AUD/USD moves up on the RBA meeting results, but the overall trend remains downward. The pair trades below $1.0300 and is cramped between the 200- and 100-day MA. According to Commerzbank analysts, in a near-term AUD/USD is likely to find support at $1.0219 (38.2% Fib. retracement of the summer uptrend). Specialists are bearish for the pair while it remains below $1.0545 (August 23 maximum) and see the first resistance at $1.0318 (200 -day MA) and $1.0412 (August 17 minimum). AUD/USD may make an upside move, but is expected to fail to overcome the $1.0412 resistance and to drop towards $1.0100 (July 12 minimum and 50% Fib. retracement). Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! http://www.fbs.com/analytics Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-04/19054-commerzbank-outlook-audusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 4, 2012 Author Share Posted September 4, 2012 "Bloomberg: tip about EUR/USD "(2012-09-04) Bloomberg: tip about EUR/USD According to Bloomberg, EUR/USD is trading 3.3% higher than the median year-end estimate of more than 50 analysts at $1.22. Last week this gap expanded to 3.8%. The last time the single currency exceeded the consensus by that much was in July 2011, and euro lost 9.4% in the next 10 weeks. This gives us some food for thought, doesn’t it? The broad technical picture allows further gains (see MACD at the weekly chart), so the scenario that euro will firstly rise up to $1.3000 and then decline seems credible enough. Chart. Weekly EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! http://www.fbs.com/analytics Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-04/19059-bloomberg-tip-about-eurusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 4, 2012 Author Share Posted September 4, 2012 "RBS: thoughts about GBP"(2012-09-04) RBS: thoughts about GBP Analysts at RBS claim that British pound is overvalued at the current levels. In their view, GBP/USD’s fair value lies closer to $1.5650. The specialists say that the next couple of weeks seem set to be important in determining how currencies and financial assets trade into early December. According to them, further easing by the Fed should help limit the downside in GBP/USD over the next month. RBS underlined that Bernanke appeared to open the door a little more to further easing and even a better than expected payroll number on Friday seems unlikely to change this. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! http://www.fbs.com/analytics Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-04/19062-rbs-thoughts-about-gbp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 4, 2012 Author Share Posted September 4, 2012 "UBS: bearish view on AUD/JPY"(2012-09-04) UBS: bearish view on AUD/JPY Analysts at UBS think that AUD/JPY may continue to decline. The specialists note that the pair’s testing 80.10 (38% retracement of the advance from June 1 minimum to August 21 maximum). In their view, if Aussie breaks this support, it will head to 79.50 (July minimum) and 79.03 (50% retracement). “With the recent weakness seeing daily and weekly trending tools turn negative, the picture is bearish,” says the bank. Chart. Daily AUD/JPY Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! http://www.fbs.com/analytics Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-04/19063-ubs-bearish-view-audjpy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 "Key options expiring today"(2012-09-05) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2500, $1.2530, $1.2535, $1.2550, $1.2585, $1.2650; GBP/USD: $1.5825; USD/JPY: 78.00, 78.60; AUD/USD: $1.0250, $1.0400; EUR/JPY: 97.60, 97.70, 99.00; EUR/GBP: 0.7940; AUD/USD: $1.0250, $1.0400. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! http://www.fbs.com/analytics Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-05/19072-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 "Greece: a 6-day working week?"(2012-09-05) Greece: a 6-day working week? It seems that hard times for the Greek population are only beginning. According to the leaked letter from the Troika (the European commission, the ECB and the IMF) to the Greek finance and labor ministries, Greece’s creditors are demanding that the nation’s government introduce a 6-day working week and increase working time as part of the terms for a second bailout. The Troika inspectors return to Athens this week after a long delay caused by political turmoil in Greece. The officials are expected to deliver a verdict in October that will determine whether Greece will get the next trance of financial help worth 30 billion euro. Greece is in the midst of a 5-year recession, with nearly 2 million people currently unemployed (the unemployment level is almost 30%). Greek authorities are trying to enact spending cuts of a further 11.6 billion euro which were to have been implemented in June. The nation’s government is pleading for more time – 4 years instead of 2 – to fulfill debt reduction targets and spending cuts. At the same time, such extension of time would require more help from the euro zone and this looks problematic. Photo from churchillsboot.com Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! http://www.fbs.com/analytics Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-05/19074-greece-6-day-working-week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 "Forecast Pte: year-long downtrend’s intact"(2012-09-05) Forecast Pte: year-long downtrend’s intact Technical analysts at Forecast Pte underline that EUR/USD is still trading within the downward channel. The resistance line of this channel is connecting $1.4549 (August 29, 2011 maximum) and $1.4247 (October 2, 2011 maximum), while the support line is going through $1.3146 (October 4 minimum). The specialists underline that during the past year euro has never climbed above the channel. For today EUR/USD’s upper limit is situated around $1.2674. Forecast Pte expects the pair to retest $1.2040 (July minimum). Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! http://www.fbs.com/analytics Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-05/19076-forecast-pte-year-long-downtrends-intact Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 "BarCap recommends selling GBP/USD"(2012-09-05) BarCap recommends selling GBP/USD Barclays Capital recommends selling GBP/USD with target at $1.5600 and stop at $1.5950. The pair faces technical resistance at $1.5915. The specialists reason this way: if ECB disappoints the markets on Thursday with no further details on debt purchases, EUR/USD is vulnerable to a correction. GBP/USD is highly correlated with EUR/USD. If US non-farm payrolls come above the forecast of 121K, for example, at 150K, US dollar will have a lift. The analysts don’t expect QE from the Fed. Barclays underlined that UK PMIs have been mixed but official data remains very weak, so the Bank of England will ease its policy. According to the bank, in November the BoE may announce 50 billion pounds of QE and cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! http://www.fbs.com/analytics Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-05/19078-barcap-recommends-selling-gbpusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 "BarCap: why USD/JPY may turn up"(2012-09-05) BarCap: why USD/JPY may turn up 1) Reduced tail risk in the US and the euro area economies and potentially higher US yields. 2) Room to catch up to widening yield gap. 3) Relatively easy Japanese monetary policy. 4) Japan’s sovereign downgrade risk: 10% hike in consumption tax in 2015 alone is not enough to bring Japan’s fiscal deficit back to surplus. Also, there is a non-negligible implementation risk. 5) Worsening external balance for Japan. ƒ 6) Continued outflow from Japan through overseas M&A by Japanese firms. ƒ 7) High intervention risk below 78 yen: since the massive JPY selling intervention last October, Japanese officials have indicated that the level of the JPY rather than the speed or volatility is their concern and the reason for the intervention. Chart. H4 USD/JPY Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! http://www.fbs.com/analytics Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-05/19080-barclays-capital-why-usdjpy-may-turn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 "Commerzbank: USD/CAD may rebound"(2012-09-05) Commerzbank: USD/CAD may rebound Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that despite the fact that the outlook for USD/CAD is negative as long as it’s trading below 0.9948 (August 23 maximum), they expect the pair to level out in the support area of 0.9843/00 and then start rising once again. The specialists say that if USD/CAD closes the day above 0.9948, one may expect it to reach 1.0045 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from April lows to June highs). Also note that there’s bearish convergence on the daily MACD – a bullish signal. On the downside, the decline below 0.9800 will bring USD/CAD to 0.9725 (August 2011 minimum). Chart. Daily USD/CAD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! http://www.fbs.com/analytics Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-05/19082-commerzbank-usdcad-may-rebound Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 "Key options expiring today"(2012-09-06) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2500, $1.2525, $1.2550, $1.2625, $1.2635; GBP/USD: $1.5865, $1.5900, $1.5925; USD/JPY: 78.50, 78.70; USD/CHF: 0.9600; AUD/USD: $1.0150, $1.0200, $1.0220, $1.0300, $1.0250; USD/CAD: 0.9900, 0.9925 EUR/GBP: 0.7865, 0.7935, 0.7950; EUR/JPY: 98.60. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! http://www.fbs.com/analytics Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-06/19092-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 "ECB’s decision: analysts in anticipation"(2012-09-06) ECB’s decision: analysts in anticipation EUR/USD returned to the recent highs above $1.2600 as leaked report from Bloomberg unveiled that the central bank is to announce unlimited, sterilized buying of bonds with maturities less than 3 years. NAB: The market is pleased by the fact that we have some details and that the ECB is going to follow through with what was hoped that they would do. The euro can at least remain around current levels and possibly be a little bit supported into the ECB meeting. Bloomberg survey: 30 of 58 forecasters expect the ECB to cut benchmark rate by 25 bps to 0.5%. UBS: There’s 60% probability of the ECB’s rate cut today. Nomura: Calls for a rate cut will be justified by the ongoing deterioration in the growth outlook and in spite of slightly firmer inflation projections. The ECB may once again cut GDP forecasts. Westpac: Low chance of a rate cut right now. The more important question for markets is what President Draghi will say at his news conference. If the anonymous central bank sources are correct on the key points, then EUR reaction should be limited. We doubt any attempt to “sell the fact” will last long, as the ECB is set to take important and welcome action to stabilize euro zone’s bond markets and sharply reduce risk premiums related to EMU exit(s). RBS: Rates will be left on hold with the latest set of projections to paint a gloomier picture on growth the inflation outlook unchanged. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! http://www.fbs.com/analytics Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-06/19094-ecbs-decision-analysts-anticipation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 "USD: NFP will make the Fed decide"(2012-09-06) USD: NFP will make the Fed decide Market expectations for additional monetary stimulus from the Fed strengthened after Ben Bernanke said last Friday the central bank was ready to act if needed. The US is struggling to show economic recovery. US manufacturing survived in August the biggest decline in more than 3 years: the ISM manufacturing PMI index came at 49.6 (cons.: 50.0; prev.: 49.8). The main focus now is on the labor market. According to consensus forecast, US non-farm payrolls grew in August less than in July (cons.: 121K; prev.: 163K), while American unemployment rate stayed above 8% for the 43rd month in a row. The data is released on Friday, September 7, at 12:30 GMT. Watch for the ADP employment report today at 12:15 GMT for the hints (cons.: 142K; prev.: 163K). The FOMC meets next week, on September 12-13. Credit Agricole: “The Fed is likely to ease further this month but exactly what options it will take will depend on data. So until we see the jobs report, we can’t push markets either way.” BBH: “The outcome of next week’s FOMC meeting and thus the timing of QE3 may very well rest on Friday’s NFP data for August. We expect that a number close or higher to the July print will keep the Fed adjusting its future guidance rather than initiating a new asset purchase program. This will probably translate into a dollar positive and equity negative outcome.” Photo: Victor J. Blue for Bloomberg Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! http://www.fbs.com/analytics Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-06/19098-usd-nfp-will-make-fed-decide Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 "AUD: skeptical views on labor market"(2012-09-06) AUD: skeptical views on labor market AUD/USD rallied from almost a 7-week minimum around $1.0160 as unemployment unexpectedly fell in August (Actual: 5.1%; cons.: 5.3%; prev.: 5.2%). Never the less, analysts at NAB aren’t optimistic at all. In their view, the jobless rate declined only because many people have stopped looking for work due to the glut of negative news and low levels of consumer confidence. Australian employment fell by 8.8K last month (cons.: 5.1K; prev.: 11.7K). According to NAB, “it was a fairly soft labor force report, with the level of employment back to where it was in April 2012, so no jobs (in net terms) have been created in the past four months.” Strategists at ANZ are almost sure that Australian unemployment rate will move higher in the near future. “We find it very difficult to believe that the unemployment rate declined in the month given that job ads and measures of hiring intentions have trended lower over the past six months, and the number of unemployment benefit recipients has trended higher.” Bear that in mind ahead of further RBA meeting and employment data releases. The data might not support Aussie for long. Chart. H4 AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! http://www.fbs.com/analytics Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-06/19096-aud-skeptical-views-labor-market Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 "EUR/CHF took off from 1.20"(2012-09-06) EUR/CHF took off from 1.20 One year passed since Switzerland limited the ability of EUR/CHF to decline by 1.2000. EUR/CHF rose today to 1-month maximum of 1.2062 before recoiling down from the 200-day MA to the levels around 1.2050. Note that the current advance of the single currency is unlike the few, sharp rallies and reversals of the past four months which were caused by merely speculative activity. This time euro is moved by hopes of the ECB’s bond purchases. The less is the risk of euro zone’s collapse, the less is demand to buy franc versus euro. If the ECB does something to ease pressure on the European bond markets and it looks like it will, we’ll see short covering in EUR/CHF. In addition, there are the rumors that the Swiss National bank might lift the EUR/CHF peg up. Analysts at Rabobank claim that this time the rumors may have some substance behind. In their view, the odds of the SNB lifting the peg to 1.25 are greater than the possibility of the central bank abandoning it. Such assumption seems sensible enough: if the ECB decision triggers euro’s short covering, it would be easier for SNB to lift the floor. Remember that Switzerland does need weaker franc. Swiss economy contracted in Q2 by 0.1% q/q and deflation surely played its role in that. On the other hand, the downtrend in EUR/USD may resume in the near future. That would put EUR/CHF under negative pressure. You may see on the H4 chart that the pair has some support and euro isn’t in a hurry to return to 1.20. The key event is, with no doubts, the ECB meeting: if the markets are satisfied by its results and the central bank manages to pull down peripheral bond yields, the chances of EUR/CHF for gradual advance will increase. If not, euro will be pulled back to 1.20 and the market will once again test the SNB’s resolve to defend this level. Better stand aside for now. Chart. H4 EUR/CHF Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! http://www.fbs.com/analytics Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-06/19...eurchf-took-120 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 <p> </p> <div></div> <div> </div> <div> "ECB Draghi: unlimited sterilized bond purchases"(2012-09-06)</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>ECB Draghi: unlimited sterilized bond purchases</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>- Economic growth remains weak. Projections for the euro area are lowered: 2012 GDP growth projection is diminished form -0.5%/+0.3% in June to -0.2%/-0.6% and 2013 growth estimate – from to 0.0%/2.0% in June to -0.4%/1.4%.</div> <div> </div> <div>- “Monetary Outright Transactions” (OMTs) program – purchases of government debt – will be an effective backstop for the single currency. </div> <div> </div> <div>Features of the OMTs program:</div> <div></div> <div> </div> <div>• Conditionality attached to EFSF/ESM program.</div> <div> </div> <div>• ECB will purchase bonds with maturities of 1-3 years.</div> <div> </div> <div>• There are no amount/time limits set for the bond purchases.</div> <div> </div> <div>• Liquidity will be fully sterilized.</div> <div> </div> <div>• ECB will be free to terminate the program when its goals are achieved or if the required conditions aren’t met.</div> <div> </div> <div>• ECB won’t break its mandate as it will operate on the secondary market, not the primary one.</div> <div> </div> <div>• The Eurosystem won’t be a preferred creditor will have the same treatment as other bondholders.</div> <div> </div> <div>• The purposes of the purchases are monetary: to ensure the price transmission mechanism in the euro area is functioning.</div> <div> </div> <div>• ECB is seeking the IMF insolvent, but can’t force the fund.</div> <div> </div> <div>- Euro is irreversible.</div> <div> </div> <div>- ECB retains its independence.</div> <div> </div> <div>- Governments must push on with budget consolidation and activate EFSF and ESM for the ECB to intervene in bond market.</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div><div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Photo by Hannelore Foerster/Bloomberg </div> <div> </div> <div> Have a profitable trade with FBS!</div> <div>If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article!</div> <div>http://www.fbs.com/analytics </div> <div> </div> <div>Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-06/19107-ecb-draghi-unlimited-sterilized-bond-purchases</div> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 "USD/JPY jumped close to 79 yen"(2012-09-06) USD/JPY jumped close to 79 yen USD/JPY rallied to the upper border of its trading channel, up from the opening level by about 60 pips. The greenback was helped by the positive news from the euro area and the United States. The ECB will effectively act on the debt markets through unlimited bond buying of bonds with 1-3 maturities conditioned to the EFSF/ESM. US unemployment claims dropped from 377K to 365K vs. the forecast of 369K. ADP employment change jumped from 173K to 201K in August vs. the forecast of 142K. Commerzbank: as long as USD/JPY is trading above support of the trend line and 77.90 (August minimum), its medium-term forecast will be bullish with the psychological 80.00 region remaining in focus. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! http://www.fbs.com/analytics Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-06/19109-usdjpy-jumped-close-79-yen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 "Key options expiring today"(2012-09-07) Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2500, $1.2550, $1.2600, $1.2650; GBP/USD: $1.5800, $1.6050; USD/JPY: 79.40; USD/CHF: 0.9500; AUD/USD: $1.0250, $1.0300, $1.0390; NZD/USD: $0.8075 EUR/GBP: 0.7945. H ave a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article! http://www.fbs.com/analytics Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-09-07/19111-key-options-expiring-today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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