internationallove Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Schneider: pound may fall to $1.40 by the end of June Analysts at Schneider Foreign Exchange claim that the British currency may lose to the greenback as its rate depends on a very dangerous mix of the fundamentals. The specialists expect pound to fall to $1.55 by the end of the first quarter and hit $1.40 by the end of June. According to Schneider, the Bank of England will make a lot of efforts trying to stem the medium-term inflation pressures and support weaker-than-expected growth. Real interest rates in the UK are going to be low or even negative so there will be little yield support for sterling. The strategists say that their forecast’s going to confirm unless British economy shows strong performance in the first quarter. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5834 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 MIG Bank: comments on GBP/USD Technical analysts at MIG Bank claim that if British pound fails to close the week above the 1.5911/1.6030 resistance area, the downtrend from November maximum at 1.6299 will be confirmed. In such case the pair GBP/USD will start moving down to 1.5665 and 1.5345 on its way to the psychological level of 1.5000. If sterling manages to close above 1.5911/1.6013, it will mean that 1.4230/1.6299 correction ended at 1.5345 and the bulls will drive the pair’s rate up to 1.6299 and then to 1.6878/1.7043. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5836 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Mizuho: comments on USD/JPY Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the pair USD/JPY closed below the daily Ichimoku Cloud approaching last week’s minimum at 81.85. The specialists underline that the momentum has become bearish and advise to look forward to more cautious moves today and during the most part of the first quarter as the greenback will be fluctuating above the record minimums. According to Mizuho, it’s necessary to attempt small shorts at 82.25, adding to 82.55 and stopping above 83.00. First target 81.85 and then 81.00. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5838 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Commerzbank: GBP/USD will consolidate and decline Currency strategists at Commerzbank claim that the pair GBP/USD hit the target of its decline in the 1.5719/03 area representing 55-day MA and 50% Fibonacci retracement. In their view, pound’s likely to consolidate versus the greenback. Then sterling will face resistance at 1.5850/1.5915 and 1.6090/95 and the downtrend will resume, claims the bank. The specialists expect the British currency to fall to 1.5500 and then to the 200-day MA at 1.5447. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5840 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Barclays Capital: comment on EUR/CHF Currency strategists at Barclays Capital claim that bearish pressure on the pair EUR/CHF will remain as long as the single currency is trading below 1.2990. The specialists believe that euro is likely to weaken to 1.2775/00. Chart. H1 EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5842 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 US external debt’s approaching the cell Yesterday US Republicans made attempt to tackle the country’s huge budget deficit by introducing legislation that would oblige the government pay the interest on its external debt if the nation reaches the $14.3 trillion ceiling before allowing other federal spending. According to the forecasts, US budget deficit will reach $1.5 trillion this year. The Obama administration projects that the debt limit will be reached by the end of March – the middle of May. The initiative was presented both in the House of Representatives and in the Senate. It’s likely to be supported in the first but will face resistance from Democrats who have the majority in the second. Republican David Schweikert claimed that the United States has to keep to the obligation to pay off its debt, protect taxpayers, ensure economic growth and stop the out-of-control spending that got the country to the current state. Moderate Democrat Kent Conrad, chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, disapproved the bill saying that the government shouldn’t pay to China when Americans themselves are in need. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5863 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Schneider: Bank of England did wrong Analysts at Schneider Foreign Exchange accuse the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee of its reluctance to let sterling strengthen as, in their view, it resulted in volatile inflation. The specialists don’t believe that moderate pound’s appreciation would strongly harm UK economic growth. Yesterday the Governor of Britain’s central bank Mervyn King tried to reassure investors saying that current inflation rally is temporary and prices’ advance will slow down next year. In December UK’s consumer price index added 3.7% on the annual basis and 1% compared with November’s level. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5865 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the single currency was advancing versus the greenback during 2-weeks in a row and is currently trading only slightly below the 1.3739 level representing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the downtrend from November to January. The specialists are now looking forward to some profit-taking and correction to 1.3500/1.3346 (December maximum and the 20-day MA) ahead of 1.3739 and November 22 maximum at 1.3789. If the pair EUR/USD gets above 1.3789 it’ll be able to rise to 1.3978/1.4000 (78.6% retracement of the decline from the November’s maximum). Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5867 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Daiwa SB Investments: profit taking on EUR/USD The specialists claim that the market’s worried about the potential China rate hikes ahead of Lunar New Year on February 3, so the demand for higher-yielding currencies weakened. In addition, the majority of the regional stock markets posted losses and investors’ risk appetite fell affecting the European currency. According to Daiwa, support for EUR/USD will lie near 1.3700. If euro breaks down through this level the next support will be at 1.3650. Chart. H1 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5878 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Japanese economy may advance in the first quarter Consumer prices excluding fresh food survived the smallest decline since 2009 losing only 0.4% on the annual basis and the unemployment rate surprisingly dropped from 5.1% to 4.9% sliding for the first time since September. The Japanese data beat the median analysts’ forecasts for a 0.5% percent decline in consumer prices and an unemployment rate staying unchanged. Specialists at Daiwa Asset Management say that Japanese economy has almost passed its temporary slump. According to the minutes of the BOJ board’s December 20-21 meeting published today, the central bank will watch the long-term interest rates as rate swings affect funding costs of companies and households and profits of financial institutions. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5880 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Mizuho: dollar will be falling versus yen Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that even though the greenback formed yesterday spike high versus Japanese yen the pair USD/JPY closed within its large Ichimoku Cloud. In their view, weekly chart analysis shows that the pair’s going to resume moving down. The specialists advise to open small shorts stopping above 83.25 with downside targets at 82.00 and 81.00. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5882 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Mizuho: comments on EUR/USD The single currency was rising yesterday versus the greenback or the eight day in a row and set maximum at the 1.3750 level representing 61% Fibonacci retracement resistance. Analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that if the pair EUR/USD manages to close the week above these levels, momentum will become evidently bullish. If euro closes the month above 1.3700, the powerful «hammer» candle will appear on the monthly chart. According to Mizuho, EUR/USD is likely to test spike high at 1.3786. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5884 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Analysts on EUR/USD prospects Commerzbank analysts think that as euro didn’t manage to break up through resistance at 1.3739 and 1.3789 there will be some profit-taking and the pair EUR/USD may fall to support at 1.35 and 1.3317. At these levels the single currency can one more time try to get higher. Specialists at Barclays Capital point out that the pace of euro's advance is slowing. Daily Ichimoku Cloud support at 1.3625, however, seems to be rather firm. According to Barclays, it’s necessary to buy on dips looking forward to EUR/USD rising to the retracement target at 1.3810 and then to 1.3980. If the support at 1.3625 is broken that, in the view of Barclays, is unlikely, the European currency may fall to 1.35 before the demand for it increases again. Morgan Stanley strategists believe that the pressure on euro will strengthen again due to risk events like the Irish elections and the ongoing possibility of a failed debt auction. According to the bank, it's only a matter of time before market participants refocus on the long-term debt situation, which, coupled with a weaker growth outlook, could push back rate hike expectations. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5886 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Lloyds Bank: all attention to US GDP Analysts at Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets underline that investors’ attention is focused today on the release of US fourth quarter GDP figures. The specialists believe that the greenback’s rate will likely be affected if the data will be at or a bit below the expected level. If the number is strong enough to push American yields higher it will support dollars rate. So, any growth within 3-3.5% range will weaken dollar within its current bearish trend. The analysts expect US GDP to gain 3.5% in the last quarter of 2010. The data is released at 1330 GMT. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5888 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the pound’s recent advance versus the greenback made it more likely that the British currency will rise to the 3-month resistance line at 1.6025 and probably to the 1.6095/1.6109 area. In their view, the bulls will be active as long as the pair GBP/USD is trading above this week’s minimum at 1.5750. If sterling breaks the 1.5750 level down it will be poised to fall below the 55-day MA and the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.5716/03 on its way down to 1.5500 and the 200-day MA at 1.5452. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5890 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alam3636 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Great informative posts especially about eur-usd i find much useful And what has predicted in the post is happening now euro faced great resistance going near 1.38 So is it good to make positions in USD now - what is the target can it go below 1.30? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Commerzbank: GBP/USD will fall to 1.5810 Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that British pound destroyed 6-week uptrend trading versus the greenback and the downside pressure on sterling is rising. The specialists expect the pair GBP/USD fall to the late January minimums at 1.5810. In their view, it’s necessary to take shorts place stopping above 1.63. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6134 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Saxo bank: forex market outlook for 2011 Speaking about 2011 prospects, currency strategists at Saxo Bank say that carry trades phenomenon is here to stay and it will reassert itself this year. The specialists note that the greenback’s strengthening towards the end of 2010 was driven primarily by the increasing yields in the US and called this situation “irrational exuberance”. In their view, short-term interest rates increase in the US this year is unlikely and probably in 2012 either. As the pace of the global economic recovery is neither too high nor too low, the greenback’s going to weaken and traders will use it as funding currency for carry trades borrowing in dollars and investing in higher yielding assets. There will be 4 major economic events investors have to keep an eye on: 1. Do the credit markets become concerned about US credit standing? 2. Is the euro zone’s debt crisis going to intensify? 3. Trade wars: will trade tensions between US and China escalate (especially important ahead of US President elections in 2012)? Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6136 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Citigroup on pound and BoE rate Analysts at Citigroup Global Markets gave an interview to Bloomberg TV on Bank of England’s monetary policy and the outlook for pound. The specialists say that it’s a bit premature to say that the Bank of England lost credibility at this stage but such risk exists as inflation is high and there’s the evidence of the pickup in inflation expectations. The strategists believe that the BoE needs to lift up interest rates sooner than later to help to restore some credibility or protect their future credibility. Citigroup expects British central bank to hike in the second or third quarter. According to Citi, sterling seems to be well-positioned at this stage. In the broad prospect there are 2 factors supporting British currency: firstly, there was a relatively early move towards the fiscal consolidation in the UK that makes pound an attractive alternative to euro and, secondly, it’s necessary to mention the positive effect of interest rates expectations. So, the strategists advise investors being short on the pair EUR/GBP and watch the BoE inflation report due on February 16. Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6138 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD Weekly GBP/USD British currency eased last week versus the greenback: by the end of the week the bears lowered the rate to 1.6000. The uptrend, however, is still in place – the Ichimoku Cloud remained positive. In addition, Tenkan-sen crossed Kijun bottom-up forming the “golden cross”, though right after having crossed the lines went horizontally (3). It' s also necessary to note that Chinkou Span that finds itself in the positive area is ready to bounce anytime from the price chart. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD On the daily chart, as it was expected, the pair GBP/USD fell to the horizontal Turning line. Then the bulls tried to rebound the market but bears turned out to be stronger and on Friday they pulled the prices down through Tenkan-sen (3) – the correction continued and may possibly extend down to the Standard line (4). There are, however, some hopes that the uptrend may resume in the longer run as the Ichimoku Cloud is still rising. The fact that Tenkan-sen (3) heads up may also have a positive impact on traders. Never the less, Chinkou Span is still in the overbought area. As a result, the decline is going to continue in the near term. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6145 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY Weekly USD/JPY It’s possible to see on the USD/JPY market that the pair realized the second scenario from our last review –Japanese currency began retreating and by the end of the week the bulls managed to rebound the rate to 83.50. It’s necessary to note that the weekly candle closed above the Standard line (4) that shows that the bullish players are really strong. As a result, it’s very likely that the rebound will continue during this week as well. Never the less, it’s necessary to remember that the general trend is descending and that Senkou Span B (2) keeps falling. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY On the daily chart the pair USD/JPY has broken through all existing resistance levels and found itself above the Ichimoku Cloud. Neither the horizontal Kijun-sen, nor Senkou Span B managed to provide the sufficient resistance. As a result, Tenkan-sen has approached the Standard line and the “golden cross” may be formed anytime (3). In addition, Senkou Span A (1) is also heading up narrowing the range of the descending Cloud. If the sentiment this week remains bullish, the Cloud may switch upwards. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6146 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF Weekly USD/CHF The pair USD/CHF began rebounding after 2 weeks earlier the bears didn’t manage to break below historic minimums in the 0.9320 area. During the last week the trade was positive: the bulls overcame Tenkan-sen and the prices got inside the Tenkan-Kijun channel (3, 4). Never the less, the bulls’ position looks rather vulnerable as both the Turning line (3) and the Standard line (4) indicate the continuing of the downtrend. In addition, Senkou Span A (1) keeps falling and expanding the Cloud down. Chart. Weekly USD/CHF Daily USD/CHF The bullish sentiment that has swept so far over the market made the prices rise despite the severe resistance they were facing. As a result, the pair broke up through the horizontal Kijun-sen from which we expected the prices to bounce down as the end of last week. The Standard line, however, wasn’t able to hold the bulls that made USD/CHF continue rebounding and the pair even broke above the Ichimoku Cloud. The fact that the prices closed above Senkou Span B on Friday will likely have a positive impact on the market, As a result, after a small correction to the Turning line the uptrend may continue this week as well. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6147 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 The analysts comment on China’s trade balance According to China customs data, the country’s exports showed in January annual rise of 37.7% after gaining 17.9% in December, while the economists were looking forward only 22.4% increase. China’s imports added 51% compared with the 2010 level after rising by 25.6% in December; the forecast was of 28.6% advance. The trade surplus narrowed from $13.1 billion in December to $6.45 billion in January that is smaller than the median forecast of a $10.7 billion surplus. Economists at ANZ believe that China’s better-than-expected data improve its economic growth outlook and means that the nation’s inflation pace is rising. The surge of imports points at China's strong demand for commodities. The specialists believe that as the residential incomes are expected to rise, imports will keep growing this year. In their view, yuan’s appreciation will have some downside impact to the global commodities prices. Strategists at ING say that China's January trade data show that that its growth rates exceed expectations and indicate acceleration of economic activity in the country. Usually imports decline from December to January, notes ING. The analysts at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, however, say that China's January exports and imports may have been boosted ahead of the Lunar New Year at the beginning of February. As a result, the specialists think that exports and imports growth rates may fall in February. According to their forecast, this year exports will gain 19%, while imports – 23.2%. Strategists at Goldman Sachs believe that China's January trade data reflect strong underlying economic growth. However, the analysts also warn investors advising them to be very cautious measuring the impact of the Lunar New Year holiday. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6155 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Commerzbank: EUR/USD may fall to 1.3108 Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that as last week the single currency didn’t manage to overcome resistance area of 1.3750/85 trading versus US dollar, the negative pressure on the pair EUR/USD increased and it may fall to the 55-day MA at 1.3355. If euro fails at this level, it will be poised to go down to the 200-day MA at 1.3108. The specialists say that bearish pressure may ease if EUR/USD rises above the 20-day MA at 1.3625. In such case the European currency will get chance to rise to 1.3750/85. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6157 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 14, 2011 Author Share Posted February 14, 2011 Credit Agricole: GBP trade will be volatile Analysts at Credit Agricole believe that GBP/USD trading is going to be volatile this week. In their view, UK inflation rate due on Tuesday may exceed expectations. The specialists claim, however, the Bank of England's Quarterly Inflation Report that is released on Wednesday may show that the central bank projects inflation to return to the target level as the country’s economy weakens. According to the bank, it’s necessary to buy British pounds ahead of the CPI release. The pair EUR/GBP may fall to minimum of February 7 at 0.8384. Credit Agricole says investors should stay long on pound in the short-term closing positions ahead of the QIR. Chart. H4 EUR/GBP Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/6159 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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