internationallove Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 "Westpac: RBA won’t raise rates until the second half of the year" (2011-01-19 Australian consumer confidence fell in January to a 7-month minimum of 104.6 from 111 in December due to the concerns that flood damage will weaken the nation’s economy. According to the estimates of Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. economists, the reconstruction of affected region may cost A$20 billion ($19.9 billion) or about 1.5% of GDP. Reserve Bank of Australia left the overnight cash rate target at 4.75% last month, after 7 increases since October 2009 naming its policy “mildly restrictive.” Analysts at Westpac claim that even before the advent of the floods they didn’t expect another rate increase until the second quarter of 2011. Now the next rate increase may be put off to the second half of the year. The specialists are sure that the rates will remain unchanged on the February 1 meeting. Chart. H1 AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5721 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Credit Agricole: euro will fall to $1.3100 in 6 months Analysts at Credit Agricole expect that the European currency will remain under pressure during the major part of 2011. In their view, any rebound of the pair EUR/USD won’t last long. The specialists claim that the absence of resolution to peripheral debt concerns will remain the main negative factor for euro in the coming months. According to Credit Agricole, the actions of the European policymakers aren’t likely to become more convincing and uncertainty won’t leave the markets, while the growth differential in the euro region’s going to further widen. The strategists forecast that in 3 months the pair EUR/USD will trade at 1.3700 and in 6 months it may fall to 1.3100. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5723 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Commerzbank: 1.3500 – resistance for EUR/USD The single currency that began rising last week continued strengthening this week approaching resistance area at 1.3500. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the bears will remain stronger until euro’s rate is below this level with the possibility if decline to the 1.2795 level representing 61.8% retracement of the move seen in the second half of 2010. If EUR/USD manages to overcome 1.3500, it will be able to climb to 1.3739/86 and then 1.3978/1.4000. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5725 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Bank of Canada left the rate at 1% Canadian dollar dropped versus the greenback from yesterday’s maximum at 0.9836, the highest level since May 2008, as the Bank of Canada decided yesterday to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1%. Economists at National Bank of Canada note that Canada’s central bank was more negative about the possible challenges to the country’s economic growth than expected and has made it clear that rates won’t be raised in the coming months. Specialists at TD Securities believe that the Bank will have time to assess the impact that the crosscurrent of global forces has on the Canadian economy because of spare capacity and core inflation well below 2%. In their view, the Bank of Canada is under no pressure of emergency to follow the path of monetary tightening. The analysts don’t expect the rate hike until July. Strategists at HSBC say that Canadian central bank looks satisfied with its policy framework and won’t move forward that will, of course, weight on loonie. Chart. H1 USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5727 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Commerzbank: euro failed to close above $1.35 yesterday Technical analysts at Commerzbank say that the fact that the single currency didn’t manage yesterday to close above 1.35 versus the greenback seems to be disappointing. The pair EUR/USD declined from 8-week maximum at 1.3538 reached on Wednesday to trade currently in the 1.3460 area. The specialists believe that euro’s rate will retain a neutral to bid tone while it holds above its 20-day moving average at 1.3223. The bank still doesn’t eliminate the possibility of the pair’s advance towards 1.37 and 1.40. Chart. H1 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5740 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Daiwa SB Investments: Aussie declined versus yen Australian dollar fell to minimum since December 7 trading versus Japanese yen. Specialists at Daiwa SB Investments suppose that Aussie’s decline happened as Asian equities perform weak today and, consequently, investors’ risk aversion’s increasing. The main factors pushing AUD/JPY down were ongoing concerns about the flooding and lower AUD/USD. According to the strategists support for the pair UD/JPY lies at 81.25. Daiwa SB Investments also note that it’s necessary to pay attention to the Dollar Index as if it falls below the important technical support of 78.00, US currency may significantly drop especially versus euro. Chart. H4 AUD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5743" target="_blank">http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5743</a> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Commerzbank: NZD/USD will trade sideways in the medium term Currency strategists at Commerzbank expect that the pair NZD/USD will trade sideways in the medium term. According to the specialists, the attempts of kiwi to get higher will be limited by 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rate’s decline from November to December at 0.7854 or by November 11 maximum at 0.7876. Chart. H4 NZD/USD Comment here Commerzbank: NZD/USD will trade sideways in the medium term Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 "Credit Agricole recommends selling pound" (2011-01-20) Analysts at Credit Agricole advise investors to look forward to pound’s decline in the short term even despite yesterday’s more hawkish speech from Bank of England MPC member Adam Posen. The bank recommends selling sterling especially versus Japanese yen and Swiss franc. In addition, the strategists say that CBI industrial trends survey that is released at 11:00 GMT may turn out to be worse than expected increasing the negative pressure on the British currency. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5746 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim note that US dollar closed on Wednesday below the bottom of the daily Ichimoku cloud trading versus Japanese yen. As a result, the specialists believe that the pair USD/JPY may be now poised to decline to January's minimum at 80.93 and then to October minimums in the 80.21 area. According to Mizuho, it’s necessary to sell the greenback at 82.25/40 stopping above 82.75 for targets of 81.85 and 81.00. Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim note that US dollar closed on Wednesday below the bottom of the daily Ichimoku cloud trading versus Japanese yen. As a result, the specialists believe that the pair USD/JPY may be now poised to decline to January's minimum at 80.93 and then to October minimums in the 80.21 area. According to Mizuho, it’s necessary to sell the greenback at 82.25/40 stopping above 82.75 for targets of 81.85 and 81.00. Mizuho: USD/JPY may fall to 80.21 Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5748 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nomura: sell euro versus British pound Analysts at Nomura International advise investors to sell the single currency versus British pound. In their view, fiscal restructuring conducted by Britain’s government will be credible and supportive for the national currency. In addition, UK inflation is likely to remain high during the next few months making the Bank of England raise interest rates earlier than expected. One more factor positive for sterling is the overseas investors’ demand for gilts. Investors should sell buy pounds around the level of 84.50 British pence per euro with a target of 81 pence stopping above 86.50 pence. UK inflation accelerated to an 8-month maximum in December as food and fuel prices rose. Consumer prices climbed 3.7% from a year earlier after a 3.3% increase in November. In October 2010 Prime Minister David Cameron’s government announced the biggest budget cuts since World War II to curb the record budget deficit. Nomura: sell euro versus British pound Nomura also recommended selling the euro versus the Australian dollar as the economic impact of the flooding in the South Pacific nation may be limited. Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5750 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD The bulls won one more week on the GBP/USD market – British currency kept gaining breaking through Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen (3, 4). It’s necessary to take into account that the lines have already formed the “dead cross” (5). But right after crossing they went up increasing the chances that the uptrend will continue. The positive outlook is a bit compromised by the Preceding lines that have different directions (1, 2): Senkou Span A (1) is moving up, while Senkou Span B (2) is falling down. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD On the daily chart the prices broke through Senkou Span B and even managed to form the model “breakthrough-bounce off Senkou Span B up” that means that the pound’s likely to keep rising versus the greenback. In addition, Chinkou Span also bounced up from the recent price peak. The Ichimoku Cloud may switch upwards in the near future (1, 2) that will lead to the final victory of the bulls and further advance to new local maximums. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5785 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY Weekly USD/JPY The pair USD/JPY has been trading sideways for a long time that’s shown by both Tenkan-sen (3) and the Preceding lines (1, 2). That may be happening because Japanese government’s adopted the policy of stemming yen’s appreciation. However, so far US dollar wasn’t performing well either. As a result, the sideways trade will continue until the prices finally consolidate under Tenkan-sen (3) or under the Standard line (4). All in all, the general downtrend’s still in place due to the negative influence of the “dead cross” (5) and the Ichimoku Cloud’s descending. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY During the past week the prices didn’t manage to get away from the upper border of the daily Cloud. This made the rate slip down below Senkou Span B. However, on Thursday the bulls once again tried to push the prices inside the Ichimoku Cloud returning the market to the flat mode. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen intersected several times but the “dead cross” will determine the further dynamics of USD/JPY. The upward character of the Cloud may also change as the Preceding lines are relatively close to each other (1). As a result, this week the greenback may trade above the Ichimoku Cloud. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5786 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF Weekly USD/CHF The pair USD/CHF, as it was expected, keeps falling – the Turning line (3) managed to offer the bulls a rather strong resistance and reversed the market down. It’s clear that as the buyers were unable to continue the rebound, negative pressure on dollar will rise and it may keep losing against the Swiss currency. The descending Cloud and the “dead cross” (5) formed by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are pointing at such outlook. Chart. Weekly USD/CHF Daily USD/CHF On the daily chart the bears got significant advantage at the beginning of the week. Never the less, the macroeconomic data release turned out to be positive for the greenback that made the rate recover from the Standard line (4) to the Turning line (3). However, the surge was only short term and the market once again found itself at the lower border of the Tenkan-Kijun channel (3, 4). Taking into account the general bearish sentiment it’s possible to assume that the sellers may continue this week putting the pair under pressure. If USD/CHF closes below the Standard line (4) this will likely make the prices hit historical minimums. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5787 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Barclays: euro will gain on oil prices’ growth Analysts at Barclays Capital claim that any further increases of the oil price will help the single currency gain versus the greenback due to the growing concerns over price rises in the euro-zone. The specialists note that the European central bank focuses on headline inflation, while the Federal Reserve – on core inflation. As a result, oil prices will likely have a larger impact on the ECB's policy approach. The difference in the mandates for the Fed and ECB means that oil prices are an important driver of the pair EUR/USD. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5792 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 The greenback may gain versus Japanese yen if the statement from the FOMC's meeting this week that’s taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday is more hawkish than the previous one. Some of the more hawkish FOMC members such as Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser will exercise their voting rights at the upcoming FOMC meeting. It's necessary to watch whether the tone of the FOMC's statement suggests that there are more inflation worries. If the statement suggests that inflationary worries are increasing, yields on the US Treasuries will rise lifting up the pair USD/JPY. Chart. H4 USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5794 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Commerzbank: EUR/USD rising towards 1.3739/89 The single currency went up versus US dollar from the 1.2870 area at the beginning of January and closed last week above 1.3500. As a result, bullish pressure on the pair has significantly strengthened. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that euro will keep advancing trying to reach 1.3739/89 and potentially 1.3978/1.4000. Never the less, in the longer term the outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish as long as it’s trading below 1.4393/1.4445 (downtrend from 2008 maximum and double Fibonacci). Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5796 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Barclays: euro will gain if it closes the day above $1.3625 Analysts at Barclays Capital claim that higher German yields seem to be very positive for the European currency stimulating its broad-based advance. The specialists note that for some time EUR/USD was trading today above the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud at 1.3625. If the pair manages to close the day above this level, it’ll be able to strengthen to the monthly Cloud top in the 1.4180 area. According to Barclays, bullish pressure will be maintained above 1.3460. Intraday support comes in between 1.3540 and 1.3525. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5798 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 "Commerzbank: EUR/CHF analysis" (2011-01-24) The single currency has made 2 tops in the resistance area between 1.3030 and 1.3070 trading versus the Swiss franc. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the pair EUR/CHF is going to consolidate below this level. The specialists believe that euro will find support at 1.2825 and then at 1.2765/1.2700. According to Commerzbank, as long as the European currency is trading above 1.2765/1.2700, it will be able to gain more. When euro breaks up 1.3070, it’ll get enough strength to rise to the 200-day MA at 1.3431. Chart. H1 EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5800 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Citigroup: comments on EUR/USD Analysts at Citigroup claim that if the single currency breaks above 1.3700 trading versus the greenback stop loss orders should be lifted up to 1.3750, while resistance will be found in the 1.3770/80 area. The specialists think that the buyers will step in on the dips to the 1.3600 zone. Citigroup points out that no significant data are due in the euro area, so the market’s attention will be likely focused on the launch of EUR5 billion of EFSF bonds. According to the estimates, the 5-year issue had drawn demand of more than EUR20 billion, though only EUR5 billion is expected to be offered. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5813 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 US dollar ahead of the Fed’s meeting Today begins the Federal Reserve’s 2-day policy meeting. Ahead of US monetary authorities’ decisions the markets are concerned that US economic growth acceleration won’t be enough for monetary tightening. The greenback weakened today versus the majority of its counterparts. The pair EUR/USD is trading close to 2-month high at 1.3687. Analysts at Bank of New Zealand note that the Fed is still worried about high unemployment (9.4% in December while the FOMC long-term target is set at 5-6%), very subdued core inflation and generally fragile outlook that, in their view, will put some pressure on the greenback and US bond yields. It’s also expected that home prices dropped by the most since December 2009: economists surveyed by Bloomberg project that S&P/Case-Shiller index lost 1.6% in November from a year earlier. The data will be releases at 1400 GMT. Currency strategists at UBS AG note that to support dollar’s rate in such situation US fourth quarter GDP has to be in on or above expectations. The median forecast shows the 3.5% annual growth from 2.6% rate in the previous 3 months. US GDP is due on January 28. Chart. H1 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5815 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Commerzbank: 0.8640/45 – resistance for EUR/GBP The single currency rose versus the British pound from the minimums at the beginning of January in the 0.8280 area getting above resistance at 0.8550. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that euro strengthened on the general sterling’s weakness. In their view, the pair EUR/GBP will be capped by resistance at December maximum of 0.8640/45 and reverse down at this zone. According to the specialists, the outlook for the European currency is negative below 0.8640/45. The intraday pressure, however, seems to be bullish. It will ease only if EUR/GBP drops below 0.8445/15. In such case euro would be poised to fall to the recent minimum at 0.8285. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5817 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 BNP Paribas: US dollar may rebound in the near term Currency strategists at BNP Paribas say that the greenback may rebound from the 2-month minimum versus euro during the next few days. The specialists underline that many investors went short on US dollar and the data calendar provides a number of potential triggers to unwind these positions. The FOMC meeting Wednesday will be very interesting in the wake of reports that the Fed plans to review its economic forecasts on improved confidence and recovery. While the Fed is expected to maintain the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) until June, a suggestion that the program will be actually finished June may be a good driver for the greenback, believes BNP Paribas. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5819 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Barclays Capital: USD/CHF will trade at 0.93-0.98 Analysts at Barclays Capital believe that Swiss franc may appreciate versus the greenback moving to 0.94 or even 0.93. Swiss currency seems to be strong on the broad basis. At the same time, the specialists warn that bullish weekly divergence shows that the pair USD/CHF will range trade between 0.93 and 0.98 over the coming month. Chart. H4 USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5821 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 UK fourth quarter GDP dropped by 0.5% According to the data released today, UK economy contracted in the final quarter of 2010 by 0.5%. British GDP fell for the first time in 5 quarters. This happened due to the slump in the leading industries – construction and service sector. The coldest December in a century played some negative role as well. Analysts' consensus forecast was for growth only to slow to 0.5% from 0.7% in the third quarter, though uncertainty over the impact of December's snow disruption meant the range of forecasts ranged from 0.1 to 0.6%. Daiwa economists regard such poor performance as “an absolute disaster for the economy”. The situation in the country is difficult as UK inflation at 3.7% is almost 2 times higher than the Bank of England's target. It’s also necessary to take into account that Britain's economy got in trouble even before the government starts to cut public spending in earnest in 2011. Finance Minister George Osborne claimed that the shrinking economy was no reason to cancel public spending cut blaming solely the cold month for the bad results. Gilt prices and short sterling futures jumped as investors dampened expectations that the Bank of England would opt for an early rise in interest rates to stem inflation. Economists at HSBC claim that they been of the opinion that the Bank of England should not raise interest rates until the first quarter of next year and the data really confirms the idea that, given the headwind the economy is facing, that this monetary stimulus is still required. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5823 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 RBC: comments on NZD/USD Currency strategists at RBC Capital Markets note that although New Zealand’s dollar rose today versus the greenback, it’s stuck within its range ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate statement. The specialists underline that the general opinion of the market is that the country’s central bank won’t change the key interest rate, so it’s necessary to scan the accompanying statement looking for the clues that the RBNZ wants to push back the timing of the next rate hike. According to RBC, the market is currently trying to analyze the Obama State of the Union speech. The FOMC meeting later today will also be closely watched as its members changed due to the annual rotation and so it’ll probably take on a more hawkish approach. Support for the pair NZD/USD is found at 0.7580, while resistance lies at 0.7700. Chart. H4 NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5832 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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