internationallove Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 "Commerzbank: USD/CAD technicals"(2012-02-16) Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the greenback keeps trading around the 200-day MA versus its Canadian counterpart. According to the bank, resistance for US currency lies at 1.0049/73 (December minimum and January 3 minimum) and at 1.0149/46 (55-day MA and the 3-month downtrend). The outlook for the pair will become positive only above the latter. Commerzbank says US dollar won’t likely get that high this week. The specialists think that the pair USD/CAD may slide to October minimum at 0.9892. In their view, this level will contain further declines as only an unexpected drop and 2 daily closes below the October low would point towards further range trading with a bearish bias and the possibility of such outcome isn’t high. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-16/16683-commerzbank-usdcad-technicals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 "USD/JPY: will the recovery continue?"(2012-02-16) The greenback keeps rising versus Japanese yen. On Tuesday USD/JPY broke above the 200-day MA spurring the bullish sentiment. Today the pair set 3-month maximum at 78.88 yen. The cross is still trading below the post-intervention spike at 79.52 set at October 31 and November 1 maximum at 78.97. However, some analysts keep warning investors that it may be premature to turn bullish on US dollar. The specialists remind that in the past few years USD/JPY broke above the 200-day MA many times, but this signals turned out to be false and there was no bullish reversal afterwards. In addition, as the possibility that the Federal Reserve will decide to launch another round of quantitative easing seems strong enough, it would be hard for traders to sell yen. Expectations of QE3 will keep US short-term note yields (in particular, 2-year Treasury yields) low. USD/JPY is strongly correlated (90%) with yield spread between Japanese and US 2-year debt, so in such conditions US dollar will remain under pressure. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-16/16685-usdjpy-will-recovery-continue Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 "Western Union about NZD/USD"(2012-02-17) New Zealand’s dollar got a lift today versus its US counterpart as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s governor Alan Bollard claimed that the nation’s growth numbers are currently understated due to conservative statistical interpretations and the particular nature of the economy. According to Bollard, if Australian conventions are applied New Zealand’s GDP could be 10% higher. Analysts at Western Union claim that NZD/USD is helped by more positive sentiment towards Greece: “All it takes is another bit of speculation that the Greeks have found more places to slash their budget, and while there is nothing concrete they have said that it (the second bailout) is likely to be green lit on Monday – which is all the market apparently needs”. The specialists expect kiwi to trade at the current levels or edge higher to 0.8400. In their view, support for NZD is situated at 0.8320 (February 15 and 9 minimums), while resistance is found at 0.8420 (February 15 maximum). Chart. Daily NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-17/16688-western-union-about-nzdusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 21, 2012 Author Share Posted February 21, 2012 "Euro strengthened on Greek bailout news"(2012-02-21) The single currency went up versus the greenback erasing earlier decline and reached 3-month maximum against Japanese yen as the euro-zone finance ministers agreed on a second bailout package for Greece saving the nation from default in March. The package includes a 53.5% write-down for Greek bondholders – it’s a bigger trade-off from the nation’s private creditors than initially expected. Debt-swap bonds will have a coupon of 2% in 2014, 3% in 2015-2020 and 4.3% after that. The ECB President Mario Draghi expressed his approval of the deal. Euro shorts are covered now. The pair EUR/USD opened around $1.3250 and started sliding lower as the press conference was constantly delayed. The market players were pretty sure that there would be an agreement and there were enough longs on an intraday basis and these longs kept getting squeezed out, the longer the decision was delayed. After the announcement euro made 70-pip spike up. Currently the pair came close to the opening levels as stop-losses were all done. Analysts at Credit Suisse claim that euro will likely be capped as although “short-covering is supporting the euro, this much was within expectations”. In addition, EUR/USD will get under pressure due to improving US economy. The specialists think that the pair will trade in range between $1.3150 and $1.3350 for the rest of the global day and between $1.3050 and $1.3350 during the coming week. Chart. H1 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-21/16696-euro-strengthened-greek-bailout-news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 21, 2012 Author Share Posted February 21, 2012 "UBS: dollar’s long-term advance against euro will go on"(2012-02-21) Analysts at UBS claimed that the single currency will continue declining versus the greenback in the longer term from the record maximum at $1.6038 reached in July 2008. The specialists think that US dollar will break its negative relationship with oil prices as the United States become more independent of foreign energy supply due to the development of shale-gas deposits and an increase in domestic oil production. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-21/16695-ubs-dollars-long-term-advance-against-euro-will-go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 "BoE minutes coming: watch the pound"(2012-02-22) Today the market’s looking forward to the release of the Bank of England’s February meeting minutes (9:30 a.m. GMT). The minutes will unveil how the central bank’s 9-member Monetary Policy Committee votes on the expansion of asset purchase program by 50 billion pounds ($79 billion) to 325 billion pounds this month. The consensus forecast is that the decision was unanimous. The experts, however, don’t rule out the possibility of 1-2 dissenting votes from the hawks against more QE. The BoE decided to conduct additional quantitative easing in order to help weak UK economy: Britain’s revived Q4 GDP figures which are released on Friday will likely confirm that the nation’s economy contracted by 0.2% in the final 3 months of 2012 (q/q). BoE Deputy Governor Charlie Bean claimed that despite the news that Greece will get the second bailout, serious risks remain and the debt crisis won’t be over. Such situation will hurt Britain hitting its exports and finance and affecting its consumer and business confidence. The official was also worried about the fate of other peripheral European economies. On the one hand, it’s necessary to note that some positive consumption and housing data have been released so far, so the BoE may improve its fundamental outlook for the UK economy. In this case pound will be poised to strengthen. On the other hand, cautious tone may signal that the door is open to expand the central bank’s asset purchase program beyond 325 billion pounds – such outcome would increase bearish pressure on sterling. Since the beginning of the year the pair GBP/USD consolidated between $1.5680 and $1.5930. Analysts at Lloyds say that sterling won’t be able to rise above $1.6000 versus the greenback in the near term. Specialists at Commerzbank think that the pair may test 200-day MA and then slide back to $1.5645. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-22/16702-boe-minutes-coming-watch-pound Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 "Nomura: USD/JPY forecast revised up"(2012-02-22) Analysts at Nomura revised up their forecast for USD/JPY from 75 to 79 yen by the end of the first quarter of 2012. The forecasts for the end of Q2 and the year-end were left unchanged at 80 and 81 yen consequently. The specialists claim that odds that the greenback will resume its decline decreased due to the Bank of Japan’s additional quantitative easing, better US macroeconomic data and easing tensions in the euro area. Nomura draws investors’ attention to the fact that Japanese central bank decided to increase investment in the government bonds with maturity of 1-2 years. This would cap the possibility of 2-year yield growth. As a result, the yield differential between 2-year US and Japanese securities will increase encouraging USD/JPY. In addition, internal capital flows also point at yen’s gradual depreciation. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-22/16705-nomura-usdjpy-revised Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 "BBH: US dollar’s under pressure due to oil prices"(2012-02-28) Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman note that as oil prices are rising, US dollar will find itself under pressure. The specialists say that the current oil price’s advance is caused by several factors. Firstly, supply from Sudan, Syria and Yemen has sharply contracted due to political instability if not to mention Libya and Iran. Secondly, Japan’s increasing oil consumption replacing nuclear fuel. Moreover, the unusual cold in Europe may be fueling demand as well. According to BBH, high oil prices increase the risk that the Federal Reserve will launch another round of quantitative easing as the economy of the United States will suffer as oil import becomes more and more expensive. The Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke will be testifying before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, so the bank recommends watching his comments for the hints of the central bank’s opinion on the issue. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-28/16739-bbh-us-dollars-under-pressure-due-oil-prices Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 "Westpac: trading ahead of LTRO "(2012-02-28) The European Central Bank will conduct its second LTRO operation on Wednesday, February 29. The first round of low-cost refinancing operation took place in December: European banks got 489 billion euro in 3-year credits. Analysts at Westpac claim that if the region’s banks borrow less than 480 billion euro, investors will worry that the markets are too illiquid and will buy the safe-haven greenback against Canadian dollar. At the same time, if banks borrow more than 480 billion euro, one should sell US dollar versus its Canadian counterpart. The specialists favor the second outcome and recommend traders to take risk. Westpac advices to go short on USD/CAD stopping at 1.0060 and targeting 0.9770. At the same time, the bank warns that one has to be careful as investors could soon change course if they reevaluate and decide that a large take-up implies weakness in the system. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-28/16741-westpac-trading-ahead-ltro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 "BOTMUFJ: EUR/USD technical forecast"(2012-02-29) Technical analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ claim that the single currency may rise to the 200-day MA at $1.3722. The specialists note that EUR/USD’s 5- and 21-day MAs are both pointing up – long-term bullish signal. At the same time, the bank says that if euro doesn’t manage to overcome $1.3509 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the pair’s decline from the May 4 maximum at $1.4940 to January 13 minimum at $1.2620), it may slide to the 90-day MA at $1.3243. As the recent advance of the single currency was very rapid, EUR/USD may survive short-term correction. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-29/16760-botmufj-eurusd-technical-forecast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 "ECB allotted 530 billion euro to euro zone’s banks"(2012-02-29) The single currency fell versus the greenback after the European Central Bank the injected a huge amount of three-year cash into the banking system. The ECB allotted 530 billion euro in 3-year contracts at 1% interest. The first long term refinancing operation (LTRO) in December accounted only for 489 billion euro. However, the figure was close to what the market has been expecting, so EUR/USD got limited on the upside. One may see that euro’s correlation with risky assets has broken as higher-yielding currencies such as Australian and New Zealand’s dollars rallied against US dollar. The reason is that increased liquidity may boost carry trades in which investors use lower-yielding currencies buy riskier assets, so that EUR will get under pressure. On the one hand, money from the ECB will help the region’s banks to meet their financing needs and continue easing tension at the euro zone’s bond market. On the other hand, LRTO can’t resolve the euro zone debt crisis and the excess liquidity could weigh on the single currency in coming months. Support levels for EUR/USD lie at $1.3400 and $1.3388, while resistance levels are situated at $1.3485, $1.3500 and $1.3547. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-02-29/16764-ecb-allotted-530-billion-euro-euro-zones-banks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 "The essentials of Ben Bernanke’s testimony "(2012-03-01) - The Fed’s Chairman confirmed that the interest rates are likely to stay low at least until the end of 2014 as unemployment level is still high and inflation outlook is subdued. - Bernanke didn’t mention additional monetary stimulus measures like QE3. - “Gasoline prices have moved up, primarily reflecting higher global oil prices – a development that is likely to push up inflation temporarily while reducing consumers’ purchasing power.” - Comments on the situation in euro area: “if Europe has a mild downturn… and if the financial situation remains under control that the effect on the US might not be terribly serious”. At the same time, there is “significant risk” of stress and contagion from “a major financial accident”. Analysts at Barclays Capital note that US central bank is passively moving away from excessive easing approach that will be a positive factor for US dollar. According to the data released yesterday, US GDP added 3% in the final 3 month of last year (vs. the consensus forecast of 2.8% growth). Conference Board said that confidence among US consumers climbed to a 12-month maximum in February. Beige Book, regional business survey, also published yesterday showed that American economy expanded at a “modest to moderate pace” in January and early February, the main driver of the expansion was manufacturing. Bernanke will continue giving its semiannual testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-01/16...ankes-testimony Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 "Comments on EUR/USD "(2012-03-01) Today is the first day of EU economic summit. The meeting of the European leaders will be focused on the ways of reviving the region’s economy postponing the discussion of Europe’s financial-crisis firewall. Analysts at Mizuho Securities claim that the markets are still concerned about the future of the euro area. The specialists are bearish on EUR/USD expecting the pair to slide to $1.25 by June 30. The single currency dropped versus the greenback yesterday from nearly 3-month maximums in the $1.3480 area to the levels around $1.3315 after the ECB allotted 530 billion euro of cheap three-year credits to the European banks as investors were “buying on rumors, selling on facts”. Then euro was hit after the Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke didn’t signal another round of quantitative easing. Support for EUR/USD is currently situated at $1.3293 (100-day MA). Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-01/16768-comments-eurusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 "Commerzbank is bearish on EUR/USD"(2012-03-01) Technical analysts at Commerzbank think that the pair EUR/USD may have reversed downwards. The specialists claim that support for EUR/USD is situated at $1.3318 (February 1 maximum), $1.3293 (February 21 maximum), $1.3199 (late December maximum), $1.3126 (the uptrend channel support) and $1.3066 (55-day MA). According to the bank, resistance lies at $1.3389 (yesterday’s minimum), $1.3436 (50% Fibonacci retracement) and $1.3487 (February maximum). Commerzbank says that the outlook for euro will remain bearish as long as it’s trading below $1.3487. If the European currency overcomes this level, it will get chance to climb to $1.3550 (December maximum) and $1.3628 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from October to January). Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-01/16773-commerzbank-bearish-eurusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 "SocGen: China may lower GDP target "(2012-03-01) The National People's Congress will convene in China on March 5 and last for a week discussing the Government Work Report which will reveal the nation’s targets for growth and inflation, detail the fiscal budget and the priorities for reforms in 2012. Analysts at Societe Generale believe that the general direction of Chinese policymakers will remain the same: the nation will continue being focused on “making progress while maintaining stability”. In their view, China will reiterate “prudent monetary policy” and “proactive fiscal policy”. According to the bank, China will likely diminish GDP target to 7.5% indicating increasing commitment to structural reforms and less appetite for aggressive investment stimulus. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-01/16774-socgen-china-may-lower-gdp-target Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 "Rabobank: comments on EUR, AUD, CAD "(2012-03-01) Analysts at Rabobank believe that the single currency will fall to $1.25 versus the greenback by the middle of May and then return to growth targeting $1.40 in the longer-term as the specialists believe that US dollar will be weakened by the Fed’s policies and economic growth slowdown. The bank is bullish on the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. In their view, these commodity and growth-linked currencies are helped by the success of the LTRO which improved investors’ sentiment. The analysts aren’t sure that Aussie and loonie will be able to maintain the gains for the duration of the year, but for now they seem to be supported well enough. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-01/16775-rabobank-comments-eur-aud-cad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 "BofA revised forecasts for euro, pound "(2012-03-01) Analysts at Bank of America claim that although the single currency declined yesterday versus the greenback after the LTRO results and Bernanke’s testimony, EUR/USD prospects have so far improved. The specialists expect the market’s risk sentiment to stay elevated as the situation at the European peripheral debt markets as well as the general state of global economy improved. The bank increased EUR/USD forecast from $1.25 to $1.30 by the end of the second quarter and from $1.30 to $1.33 by the year-end. In addition, the projections for EUR/JPY were revised up from 91 to 105 yen by June 30 and from 99 to 109 yen by the end of December. Bank of America thinks that Canadian, Australian and New Zealand’s dollars have good chances for appreciation. As for British pound, the analysts are pessimistic and lowered forecast for GBP/USD for the end of 2012 from $1.53 to $1.51. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-01/16776-bofa-revised-forecasts-euro-pound Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 "Yen will keep declining due to BOJ’s loose policy "(2012-03-02) The greenback rose versus Japanese yen approaching February 27 maximum at 81.67 yen. Yen weakened versus the majority of its counterparts as, according to the data released today, the nation’s CPI fell by 0.1% in January (y/y) declining for the fourth month in a row. According to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, yen lost 6.9% during the past 3 months versus other developed-market currencies. Last month the Bank of Japan set inflation target at 1%, so the market expects that it will keep easing monetary policy in order to meet this goal. The central bank will meet on March 12. Analysts at Morgan Stanley increased forecast for USD/JPY for the first quarter from 75 to 80 yen citing “more aggressive dovish” approach of the BOJ. Strategists at UBS don’t agree with the widespread idea that yen may strengthen towards the Japanese fiscal year-end at March 31. The specialists think that Japanese investors won’t need to repatriate their profits as domestic financial sector looks quite healthy. In addition, Japanese investment flows were net buyers of foreign assets in the first quarter since 2007, and that trend seems unchanged. According to UBS, USD/JPY will rise to 85 7yen in 3 months. Among the reasons why to be negative on yen the bank names high likelihood of further monetary easing in Japan, the widening of the gap between the US and Japanese benchmark bonds and the increasing oil prices. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-02/16781-yen-will-keep-declining-due-bojs-loose-policy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 "Citi: comments on EUR/USD "(2012-03-02) Analysts at Citi believe that traders will sell the single currency on any rallies versus the greenback unless we see a sustained improvement in euro zone’s fundamentals. The specialists say that EUR/USD may face resistance at $1.3500 marking the level where selloffs are likely to start. In their view, the ECB’s LTRO made euro often used as a funding currency. At the same time, Citi points out that on the downside, EUR’s decline will be contained as oil exporters convert their dollar revenues into euro and the fact that investors are extremely short on euro. As a result, some short-term short-covering advances may happen. So, Citi expects the pair to trade sideways for some time. График. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-02/16785-citi-comments-eurusd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 "RBC: technical levels for USD/JPY"(2012-03-02) Analysts at RBC Capital Markets claim that if the greenback manages to close today above 81.47 yen, its chances for sustained growth will significantly increase. The specialists think that resistance for USD/JPY lies at 82.21 and 83.09 yen. On the downside, if US currency closes the day below 80.02, its rate will decline to support at 79.31 and 78.23 yen. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-02/16787-rbc-technical-levels-usdjpy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 "Morgan Stanley increased EUR/USD forecast "(2012-03-02) Analysts at Morgan Stanley raised forecast for the pair EUR/USD buy the end of March from $1.27 to $1.34. In their view, the short-term outlook for the single currency has improved as the ECB’s LTROs help to ease the tensions about the European sovereign debt and banking sector. At the same time, the specialists are still bearish on euro in the longer-term perspective. The bank reiterated that the pair will likely slide by the end of the year, though the projection was lifted a bit higher, from $1.15 to $1.19. Chart. Weekly EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-02/16789-morgan-stanley-increased-eurusd-forecast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 5, 2012 Author Share Posted March 5, 2012 "CFTC trader positioning data "(2012-03-05) The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that: • Euro shorts declined from the previous week’s total of 142.2K to 109.7K contracts. • British pound shorts decreased from 31.3K contracts on February 21 to 23.2K contracts on February 28. Sterling positions are now their best level since September 6 when positions accounted for 13.2K short contracts. • Japanese yen positions declined from 17.3K net long contracts on February 21 to 1.2K net long contracts on February 28. Yen speculative positions have reached minimum since May 31 when positions totaled 1.6K short contracts. Strategists at Scotia Capital note that yen longs have completely capitulated ever since the shift in stance coming from the Bank of Japan of a far more aggressive monetary policy. In their view, although the gross long position in yen shifted lower this week, the gross short has almost doubled in the last four weeks, highlighting the changing market view on the yen. • Swiss franc net shorts slightly decreased from 19.8K contracts on February 21 to 19.4K contracts on February 28. Short positions increased surpassing small increase of longs. It’s necessary to note that the figures cited above are always a week old at the time of their release. Never the less, CFTC data gives a good oversight into how the market is positioned and if/how these positions are being unwound. Although the CME speculators represent a small fraction of trading in the currency markets, their trades are widely seen as typical of hedge fund investors' currency movements. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-05/16791-cftc-trader-positioning-data Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 5, 2012 Author Share Posted March 5, 2012 "Mizuho, Citigroup on USD/JPY "(2012-03-05) The greenback declined versus Japanese yen as the market players were taking profits after the pair USD/JPY reached 9-month maximum last week at 81.87 yen. At the same time, the pair’s decline was limited as Japanese importers were buying US currency on the dips. The most eyed event this week is the release of US February Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank claim that if the data is strong, US dollar may add about 1.5 yen to the levels around 83 yen. However, the specialists warned that the things may not go that smooth as the employment component of the ISM manufacturing survey declined last month (m/m). According to the bank, weak payrolls figures will bring dollar down to 80.00 yen. Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman also advise traders to watch Greece’s debt swap deal as it may increase uncertainty and risk aversion encouraging yen this week. Bondholders have until March 8 to sign up to the agreement under which they will exchange their existing Greek government bonds for new paper in a swap deal that will see the nominal value of their holdings cut by 53.5%. Economists at Citigroup are positive on USD/JPY in the longer term. The specialists point out that the pair closed in February above 21-month MA for the first time since 2007 – very positive technical signal. However, in the short term there’s the high risk of dollar’s correction to 78.00/50 yen. The longer term target is bullish – 98 yen in the coming weeks. The main resistance for USD/JPY is situated at 100-week MA in the 82.10 yen area. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-05/16795-mizuho-citigroup-usdjpy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 5, 2012 Author Share Posted March 5, 2012 "Watch US employment data on Friday "(2012-03-05) The US nonfarm payrolls report will be released on Friday, March 9. In January US payroll rose by 243,000 and showed a highest increase during a nine-month period. The expected payroll growth in February is 250,000; however, some specialists forecast even a more significant upturn. In case if employment increases less than by 200,000, Westpac Institutional Bank analysts recommend selling the dollar against the Japanese yen. However, it is more likely that the payrolls come in better than expected. In this case it will be beneficial to sell the dollar against the Canadian dollar because of the positive impact of the statistics on the Canadian economy. The specialists recommend going short on USD/CAD at 0.9880 stopping at 1.0060 and targeting 0.9400. Analysts at Deutsche Bank believe that the growth of the Consumer Confidence Index and the labor market expectations point at forthcoming changes in the economy. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-05/16796-watch-us-employment-data-friday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted March 5, 2012 Author Share Posted March 5, 2012 "Deutsche Bank: pound may strengthen vs. Aussie "(2012-03-05) Analysts at Deutsche Bank believe that British pound may strengthen versus Australian dollar in the coming months. The specialists give the following reasons for such assumption: - Chinese economic growth is slowing down. As Australian economy is tightly connected with the China’s one which is the nation’s major export market, Australian dollar will likely get under pressure. “To a growing cohort of offshore commentators, China is a classic bubble on the brink of collapse. Its economy is chronically unbalanced, over-reliant on investment and cheap manufacturing exports. Financial repression has spurred speculative overbuilding in real estate, and local governments have gorged on credit to fund stimulus projects of dubious value. Central planning never worked and social pressures are starting to boil over”. Deutsche Bank doesn’t think that China’s economy is going to collapse, but that it will weaken as its economy gradually restructures. - Aussie is already overpriced. - Such currencies as Australian, Canadian dollars and Japanese yen have outperformed those like sterling and Mexican peso during the Third Phase of Chinese growth. According to the bank, shorting the outperformers could be expensive, but buying the laggards or constructing relative value crosses seems quite sensible. Judging by the strength of past correlations and dislocation since 2008 Deutsche choose to be long at GBP/AUD. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2012-03-05/16798-deutsche-bank-pound-may-strengthen-vs-aussie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.