internationallove Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 "Mizuho: short-term recommendations for majors"(2011-12-13) EUR/USD (bullish, target $1.3525, stop below $1.3135) Resistance: $1.3250, $1.3310 and $1.3360 Support: $1.3145 and $1.3055 Chart. H4 EUR/USD GBP/USD (bullish, target $1.5795, stop below $1.5495) Resistance: $1.5665, $1.5735 and $1.5770 Support: $1.5525 and $1.5465 Chart. H4 GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11417 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 "JPMorgan Chase: euro may renew 2011 low"(2011-12-14) The single currency fell versus the greenback diving below October minimums to the levels in the $1.3010 area. Technical analysts at JPMorgan Chase claim that EUR/USD breached important support at $1.3047 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement from a 4-year minimum reached in June 2010) and may retest 2011 low at $1.2873 hit on January 10. In their view, the pair’s trading within downtrend and the outlook for euro will remain negative as long as it stays below $1.3145/3212. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11427 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 "Westpac: advices on trading euro"(2011-12-14) Analysts at Westpac believe that the single currency is on the way down to $1.2860. In their view, euro will weaken versus US dollar due to the risk that the rating agencies downgrade European nations and high probability of the region’s falling into recession. At the same time, the specialists underline that there are now too many short positions on euro, so they don’t recommend selling euro at the current levels. According to the bank, it’s necessary to wait for a short squeeze back toward $1.3400 before going short on EUR/USD. In addition, Westpac advised selling Australian dollar against its New Zealand’s counterpart as the Reserve Bank of Australia is more likely to reduce the interest rates. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11429 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 "Commerzbank: technical comments for the majors"(2011-12-14) EUR/USD: the pair went below the October 4 minimum at $1.3145, the next downside target lies at $1.2860 (2011 minimum) and at $1.20 in the longer term. The key resistance is situated at $1.3355. Chart. Daily EUR/USD USD/JPY: the pair recovered from support in the 77.11/21 area (55- and 100-day MA). Resistance is found in the 78.28/30 zone (last week maximum and 8-month resistance line), 78.66 (4-year downtrend resistance line) and 80.12 (55-week MA). Chart. Daily USD/JPY USD/CHF: the pair reached the maximal levels in 10 months and managed to rise above 0.9399 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline in 2010-2011). If US dollar closes above 0.9400, it will be able to advance to 0.9776/84 (2011 maximum) and then to 0.9950 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 2010). Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11431 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 "BoA: sell Aussie versus loonie"(2011-12-14) Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch advise traders to sell Australian dollar against its Canadian counterpart. In their view, AUD will weaken as the prospects of Australian currency for the next few weeks seem rather dim: - Shanghai Composite Index has breached important support levels (Aussie is extremely vulnerable to the deterioration of the economic situation in China as the latter is Australian key trading partner). - Continuous Commodity Index has also dropped below key support (commodities represent the key part of the Australian economy, so AUD will likely suffer). The specialists propose to sell Aussie versus loonie because though Canadian dollar is also a commodity currency, it’s not affected by the dynamic of commodity prices as Australian dollar is. Moreover, AUD/CAD is facing the long-term resistance level which has been in place since the 1980s. According to the bank, it’s necessary to open shorts on the pair at 1.0440 stopping above 1.0660 and targeting 0.9840. Chart. Daily AUD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11433 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 "FOMC: results of the meeting and analysts' comments"(2011-12-14) FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) repeated its pledge to keep the interest rates at the minimal level near zero at least until the middle of 2013 and maintained Operation Twist, the operation which allows the central bank to lengthen the maturity of Treasuries in its $400 billion portfolio. Note that Chicago Fed President Charles Evans once again called for additional easing. The Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke claimed that the European debt crisis may affect US economy, so that further monetary stimulus measures will be needed. Despite the fact that the unemployment level unexpectedly dropped in November to the minimal level since March 2009 of 8.6%, the FOMC said that this number is still “elevated” and that the jobless rate will decline “only gradually”. Although some recent data was quite positive (CB consumer confidence, ISM Manufacturing PMI), the Fed underlined that the pace of business fixed investment growth is still low and housing market “remains depressed”. Analysts’ comments Analysts at BNP Paribas expect that the central bank could unveil measures aimed to support growth and improve the public understanding of Fed’s policy already at the next meeting on January 25-26. In their view, the Federal Reserve will launch QE3 in the second quarter or even earlier, in January or March, in case economic conditions worsen. The specialists also expect the central bank to publish their forecasts for the federal funds rate and define the levels of economic growth and unemployment which would allow it to tighten monetary policy. Strategists at ING also point out that due to the annual rotation the hawks – Federal Reserve presidents Charles Plosser of Philadelphia, Richard Fisher of Dallas, and Narayana Kocherlakota of Minneapolis – and their place will be taken by the doves – San Francisco Fed President John Williams, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto. Some analysts think that the Fed is already conducting QE (that explains low yields of the Treasuries) without announcing that officially. At the same time, economists at UBS, Barclays, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank и JP Morgan Chase believe that the central bank will be buying only mortgage bonds. Anyway the Fed’s decision will likely be based on the inflationary expectations and the fact that last month the inflation forecasts were lowered speaks in favor of the potential QE. Pay attention to the fact that Bernanke will hold press conference on January 26 after the meeting, an event that occurs quite rarely. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11435 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 "Westpac, E&Y: Europe’s heading to recession"(2011-12-15) The majority of experts sound pessimistic on the prospects of the euro area's economic growth. Analysts at Westpac claim that the austerity measures will lead the region into a “fully blown recession”. Economists at Ernst & Young also believe that European economy’s going to contract and add that the actions of the EU authorities haven’t completely eliminated the risk of the euro area’s breakup. In their view, the currency union’s GDP will drop in the current and next quarters and the rebound will begin only by the end of the next year, while the 2012 growth won’t exceed 0.1% (in 2013 the situation might improve – the analysts project 1.5-2% growth). The unemployment level is seen above 10% until 2015. E&Y reminds that the next year the large amounts of sovereign debt will require refinancing. As a result, the debt turmoil is likely to continue and the ECB will likely have to consider acting as a lender of last resort and keep buying government bonds. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11443 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 "Nomura: EUR/USD is sliding to $1.20"(2011-12-15) Analysts at Nomura who have been bearish on euro this year still think that the single currency is going to weaken versus its US counterpart. The specialists note that if in the longer term it’s possible to see some light ahead, the short-term picture looks rather dim. According to the bank, EUR/USD will hit $1.20 by the end of the first quarter of 2012. Nomura says that the pace of euro’s decline will depend primarily on the results of the upcoming bond auctions in Europe and the 3-year ECB money tender which is launch on December 21. In addition, the strategists claim that one shouldn’t rule out the possibility of the pair’s drop to the parity level the next year. Chart. Weekly EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11445 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 15, 2011 Author Share Posted December 15, 2011 "SNB meeting: results, comments, EUR/CHF"(2011-12-15) Swiss National Bank left today the left the floor for EUR/CHF at 1.20 and repeated to defend it will all efforts amid the pressure from the Swiss exporters to lift up this level (franc has been pegged to euro during already 3 months). The SNB has also left its key interest rate at 0%. The SNB’s President Philipp Hildebrand claimed that the central bank is ready to act in case deflation risks emerge, though today deflation isn’t yet a danger for the Swiss economy. According to the SNB’s forecast, consumer prices will fall by 0.3% the next year, but we won’t see sustained decline in the general price level. Swiss central bank expects the nation’s GDP growth to slow from 1.5-2% this year to 0.5% in 2012. Analysts’ comments Credit Agricole: the SNB is going to stay on hold watching the dynamic of the economic indicators. In other words, the central bank won’t raise the limit for franc preferring verbal interventions. The pressure on Swiss exporters has eased a bit as franc has so far weakened versus US dollar. Swissquote Bank, Capital Economics: as the situation in the euro area may deteriorate, the upward pressure on franc risks strengthening. Goldman Sachs: the SNB is in a very difficult position due to the low inflation and poor economic growth. Rabobank: the central bank is still likely to increase EUR/CHF floor. Swiss economy is affected by slowing economic growth of the euro area. Franc is overvalued and the deflation is at the door. The analysts advise buying euro on the dips. UniCredit: SNB's growth and inflation forecasts don’t change much. If the central bank lifts the EUR/CHF floor to 1.25, that won’t be enough to help the exporters. If the SNB raises the limit to 1.30, it will face strong market’s pressure as well as the accusations of currency manipulation. As a result, the analysts expect the floor to stay at the current level. Swiss franc is seen slowly depreciating in 2012. EUR/CHF Bloomberg survey: EUR/CHF will trade in the 1.23 area in the first quarter of 2012 and then rise to 1.26 in the last 3 months of the next year. Bayern LB: euro has upward potential against franc. If EUR/CHF manages to get above 1.2475, it will be able to climb to 1.26 even without any actions on the part of the SNB. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11447 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 "Danske Bank: forecast for ECB and Fed’s rates"(2011-12-16) Analysts at Danske Bank think that at its next meeting in January the European Central Bank will reduce its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%. The specialists note that the euro area risks falling into recession during the next few months, the European policymakers still haven’t solved the crisis and the periphery bond yields remain high while the ECB is reluctant to extend its purchases of the European debt. Danske claims that the outlook for US economy seems to be much better and expect American GDP to show decent growth in the coming quarters. As a result, the Federal Reserve is seen keeping the rates unchanged with the prospect of increase as the economic conditions improve. So, make your conclusions. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11450 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 "December 16: economic events and data releases"(2011-12-16) Events: -Troika ends their 4-day visit to Greece. Important data: US CPI (1:30 p.m. GMT). Bond auctions: none (keep in mind, however, that France plans to sell 7 billion euro ($9.1 billion) of bills on December 19. Spain and Greece will also offer short-term government securities next week – these upcoming events weight on euro as the market seems pessimistic on the euro zone’s prospects). Elsewhere in the world: - The Reserve Bank of India announced measures to curb speculation in the foreign-exchange market (companies won’t be allowed to enter into multiple forward contracts to cover a single overseas transaction, the amount of open positions dealers can maintain overnight will be reduced). As a result, rupee climbed to more than 2 ½-year maximum. - Russia joins the World Trade Organization. The world’s biggest energy exporter is set to receive the final approval to join the WTO after 18 years of negotiations. Joining the WTO should drive bigger investment inflows, trade and higher competition. It may improve Russia’s credit rating. (14:30 GMT). Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11457 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 "Danske Bank: outlook for 2012"(2011-12-16) Analysts at Danske Bank shared their expectations about global economic development in 2012. The specialists advance several assumptions: - Concerns about recession are exaggerated – an overly negative economic and financial outlook is priced into financial assets; - The world’s central banks will keep easing monetary policy; - Euro zone crisis will continue, though the currency union won’t break up; - Volatility will remain high; - US dollar will experience structural weakness; - Currency interventions will continue. Danske give several arguments against euro zone’s break-up: - It’s consequences would be worse than those of Lehman Brothers’ collapse; - The costs of the break-up would be enormous both peripheral and core economies4 - The single currency is secured by political support as most of the member nations seem ready to give up more sovereignty. The strategists, however, don’t rule out the possibility that the euro area may split, the exit would be very risky and potentially very costly for any country. As for US dollar’s structural weakness, the analysts note that the greenback has been steadily depreciating during the last decade (with only a few interruptions like due to the introduction of the homeland investment act in 2005 and the global financial crisis in 2008). Among the reasons of such USD dynamics the specialists cite: - Euro’s initial strong undervaluation versus the greenback; - America’s persistent current account deficit; - Rising commodity prices; - On average easier monetary conditions. In the absence of a global recession the dollar will lose to stronger currencies, such as Australian, New Zealand’s and Canadian dollars. The Dollar Index may decline in such case by about 4%, though not more as Danske isn’t bullish on riskier assets, but expects weak US fundamentals to drive a dollar depreciation trend in a “normal” risk environment. As for EUR/USD, the analysts see the pair below $1.30 during the next few months until the market prices in new ECB monetary policy regime and then rebound end 2012 higher. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11459 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 "December 19: new trading week starts"(2011-12-19) Weekly GBP/USD British pound keeps gradually moving down versus its US counterpart though it still managed to hold above November lows. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are going sideways (1, 2), while bearish Ichimoku Cloud retains its side (4) – the signs that the consolidation is likely to continue. On the upside, sterling is capped by the strong resistance provided by the Turning line (1), the Standard line (2) and Senkou Span “B” (3). On the downside, the prices are supported by November and October minimums. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD At the beginning of the last week GBP/USD breached Tenkan-sen (1) and consolidated below this line which is currently action as a resistance. It’s necessary to note that here as well as on the weekly chart the Turning and the Standard lines (1, 2) are horizontal that means the trend is flat. The Ichimoku Cloud has so far rather often changed its mode and is thin so that it can’t be viewed as a serious obstacle, though to get to Kumo the prices will need to overcome Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2). In addition, descending Cloud has recently begun widening showing that the bears become stronger. Pound’s likely to stay below Tenkan-sen. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11465 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 "December 20: news and data to watch"(2011-12-20) News: RBA meeting minutes (full text here): -comments are less dovish than expected; -Australian economy will keep expanding even though euro zone’s debt crisis has a negative impact on the global economic growth. So, RBA rate cuts in the near future are unlikely. Australian dollar has managed to gain a bit on the news rising from $0.9890 to $0.9950. UK consumer confidence improved in November (40 vs. 36 in October). Watch today: Germany: Ifo Business Climate (decline is expected); Spain: 3- and 6-month bills auction; The ECB begins longer-term refinancing operation (LTRO) in which banks can borrow unlimited funds in return for eligible collateral, including euro-region government bonds. The banks will be able to decide what to do with the funds on their own. The single currency may find some support in the short term as the LTRO may provide a new source of demand by banks for euro-zone sovereign debt. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11468 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 "BofA: sell EUR/USD on the rallies"(2011-12-20) Technical analysts at Bank of America believe that the single currency may fall to 1-year minimum versus the greenback at $1.2510 (last visited in July 2010). The specialists make such forecast as on December 14EUR/USD went below October minimum at $1.3145 sliding to $1.2945. In their view, support in the $1.2901/2859 area will be the last obstacle ahead of $1.2533. In their view, the pair is with no doubts trading within the downtrend. The analysts note that as the market's sentiment about euro is extremely bearish, short squeezes are possible and the pair has chances to rise to $1.3250. At that point Bank of America recommends opening short positions. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11477 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 "NAB: forecast for AUD/USD in 2012"(2011-12-20) Analysts at National Australia Bank believe that Australian dollar will be fluctuating in 2012 between $0.9000 and $1.0500 versus its US counterpart. The specialists note that the pair AUD/USD, which has set this year’s maximum at $1.10 on July 27, will be capped by this level during the next year. According to the bank, in the first quarter of 2012 Aussie will drop to the $0.9600 zone as the global growth prospects deteriorate and then stay around parity in the second half of the next year. In the worst case, if some European nation defaults and the euro zone falls into recession making the global economy contract as well, AUS/USD will drop to $0.8500. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11479 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 21, 2011 Author Share Posted December 21, 2011 "GBP/USD: MPC minutes and technical comments"(2011-12-21) Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee members voted unanimously at their December meeting to keep policy unchanged as uncertainty over the economic outlook remained high. All nine members of the MPC voted to continue with the current 275 billion pounds of asset purchases and to leave the benchmark interest at 0.5%. Divisions on the MPC remained over the outlook, with some members saying the November Inflation Report projections meant more quantitative easing was likely to be needed. UK Borrowing turned out to be lower than expected in November: 18.1 billion pounds versus the forecast of 19.6 billion. Although UK central bank left door open for more easing in February, pound strengthened versus the greenback. GBP/USD tested the levels in the $1.5773 zone. Support for British currency is situated at $1.5650. Watch the bullish “double bottom” pattern: it will be confirmed if sterling overcomes resistance in the $1.5768/77 area. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11486 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 - Italy's government will hold confidence vote on austerity in Senate around 2 p.m. GMT: the lawmakers are set to give final approval today to Prime Minister Mario Monti’s 30 billion-euro ($39 billion) emergency budget plan, including a pension overhaul and a levy on primary residences. The draconian austerity measures will affect the nation’s weak economy. Data released yesterday showed that Italy’s GDP shrank contracted by 0.2% in the third quarter after 0.3% growth in the previous 3 months. The government forecasts contraction in the fourth quarter, 0.6% growth in 2011 and a 0.4% contraction in 2012. - European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks today in Frankfurt after a meeting of the European Systemic Risk Board which begins at 4 p.m. GMT. Yesterday the ECB made the region’s banking sector a Christmas present – the central bank lend a record sum of 489 billion euro ($638 billion) to 523 euro-area banks in 3-year loans. That was the first of ECB’s LTROs announced on December 8. The second one will be allotted on February 29, 2012. According to Goldman Sachs, the borrowings equal about 63% of the European bank debt maturing in 2012. The majority of analysts argue that the ECB’s move won’t be efficient as the region’s banks can decide on their own where to invest the obtained funds and they aren’t very likely to invest in the peripheral debt. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11490 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 "BBH: euro will decline to $1.24"(2011-12-21) - Italy's government will hold confidence vote on austerity in Senate around 2 p.m. GMT: the lawmakers are set to give final approval today to Prime Minister Mario Monti’s 30 billion-euro ($39 billion) emergency budget plan, including a pension overhaul and a levy on primary residences. The draconian austerity measures will affect the nation’s weak economy. Data released yesterday showed that Italy’s GDP shrank contracted by 0.2% in the third quarter after 0.3% growth in the previous 3 months. The government forecasts contraction in the fourth quarter, 0.6% growth in 2011 and a 0.4% contraction in 2012. - European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks today in Frankfurt after a meeting of the European Systemic Risk Board which begins at 4 p.m. GMT. Yesterday the ECB made the region’s banking sector a Christmas present – the central bank lend a record sum of 489 billion euro ($638 billion) to 523 euro-area banks in 3-year loans. That was the first of ECB’s LTROs announced on December 8. The second one will be allotted on February 29, 2012. According to Goldman Sachs, the borrowings equal about 63% of the European bank debt maturing in 2012. The majority of analysts argue that the ECB’s move won’t be efficient as the region’s banks can decide on their own where to invest the obtained funds and they aren’t very likely to invest in the peripheral debt. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11490 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 "St. George: 2012 forecast for AUD/USD"(2011-12-22) Analysts at St. George believe that although Australian dollar will be affected in 2012 by the euro zone’s problems and potential slowdown in China, it will fall, but not much. The specialists note that Aussie has shown greater resilience during bouts of risk aversion this year in comparison to previous episodes of risk aversion due to its strong underlying fundamentals. The bank expects AUD/USD to trade around $1.0000 in March, in the $0.9900 area in June and near $1.0100 at the end of 2012. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11494 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 "Japan: government revised economic forecasts"(2011-12-22) Japanese government reduced forecast for the nation’s real GDP growth in 2012 fiscal year which begins in April from 2.7%-2.9% to 2.2% (y/y). The estimate of this year’s growth were lowered from +0.5% to -0.1%. As the reason of the revision the officials cited negative impact of the yen's appreciation and the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in the euro area. At the same time, the next fiscal year Japan’s economy is expected to “recover moderately” on the assumption that the global situation starts improving. Consumer prices will add 0.1% in fiscal 2012 (y/y) after showing declines in the previous three years, says the government. In fiscal 2011 CPI will drop by 0.2% (previous forecast was the 0.2% rise). Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11495 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 22, 2011 Author Share Posted December 22, 2011 "Citigroup: warning for USD bulls"(2011-12-22) Currency strategists at Citigroup say that US economic data has so far been surprising the markets in a positive way referring to the recent labor, housing and trade figures. As a result, the Economic Surprise Index designed by the bank has risen from the record minimum in June almost reaching the record maximum at present. According to Citigroup’s experience, the upside moves of the index correspond to US dollar’s selling periods. It happens as the market becomes more optimistic and risk sentiment improves making the demand for US currency decline. The analysts don’t think that dollar will weaken this year as many traders have already closed their books for the year and others may be reluctant to take on big new positions right before the end of a quarter. At the beginning of 2012, however, if the economic data remains favorable, investors may decide that they have overestimated the negative effects of the euro zone’s crisis on the global economy. “The surge in data flow itself may be insufficient to reverse recent risk aversion, but it does suggest that dollar’s weakness could reassert itself more quickly and forcefully than many anticipate once conditions settle down,” says the bank. CESI chart may be found here. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11498 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 "The FOMC will become dovish the next year"(2011-12-23) The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to become more dovish due to the annual rotation. As a result, the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will get chance to pursue his active loose monetary policy if he thinks that American economy needs help. The FOMC consists of 12 members – 7 Fed board governors and the president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank have – permanent vote, while the 4 remaining seats are shared by the other 11 FRB presidents which change places on the annual basis. This year 3 out of the 4 rotating seats was occupied by the hawks – Richard Fisher, the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Charles Plosser of Philadelphia, Narayana Kocherlakota of Minneapolis. That means that these policymakers don’t think that monetary policy can be used to stabilize economic conditions and would prefer setting long-term target for inflation. Doves, on the other hand, believe that the central bank has to keep interest rates low to support the national economy. Fisher, Plosser and Kocherlakota voted against the pledge to keep short-term rates close to 0 until the middle of 2013 and against the Operation Twist. The old distinction, with hawks concerned about inflation and doves worried about weak growth, has subsided over the past 20 years. Fed officials agree that keeping inflation low and stable is a necessary precondition of good economic performance. This year, a “tough group” of hawks occupied. These officials had little sympathy for the Fed’s innovative efforts to try to lower long-term interest rates, said Brian Bethune, a Fed expert at Amherst College in Massachusetts. In 2012, the Fed is losing 3 hawks and only getting one: Jeffrey Lacker, the president of the Richmond Fed. The other 3 new members: John Williams, the president of the San Francisco Fed, Dennis Lockhart, the president of the Atlanta Fed, Sandra Pianalto of Cleveland are viewed as more consensus-minded and likely to vote with Bernanke. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11506 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 23, 2011 Author Share Posted December 23, 2011 "The FOMC will become dovish the next year"(2011-12-23) The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to become more dovish due to the annual rotation. As a result, the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will get chance to pursue his active loose monetary policy if he thinks that American economy needs help. The FOMC consists of 12 members – 7 Fed board governors and the president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank have – permanent vote, while the 4 remaining seats are shared by the other 11 FRB presidents which change places on the annual basis. This year 3 out of the 4 rotating seats was occupied by the hawks – Richard Fisher, the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Charles Plosser of Philadelphia, Narayana Kocherlakota of Minneapolis. That means that these policymakers don’t think that monetary policy can be used to stabilize economic conditions and would prefer setting long-term target for inflation. Doves, on the other hand, believe that the central bank has to keep interest rates low to support the national economy. Fisher, Plosser and Kocherlakota voted against the pledge to keep short-term rates close to 0 until the middle of 2013 and against the Operation Twist. The old distinction, with hawks concerned about inflation and doves worried about weak growth, has subsided over the past 20 years. Fed officials agree that keeping inflation low and stable is a necessary precondition of good economic performance. This year, a “tough group” of hawks occupied. These officials had little sympathy for the Fed’s innovative efforts to try to lower long-term interest rates, said Brian Bethune, a Fed expert at Amherst College in Massachusetts. In 2012, the Fed is losing 3 hawks and only getting one: Jeffrey Lacker, the president of the Richmond Fed. The other 3 new members: John Williams, the president of the San Francisco Fed, Dennis Lockhart, the president of the Atlanta Fed, Sandra Pianalto of Cleveland are viewed as more consensus-minded and likely to vote with Bernanke. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11506 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 "ECB balance extended to the record maximum"(2011-12-29) The pair EUR/JPY fell to 10-year minimum at 100.30 yen, the pair EUR/USD dropped to the minimal level since January at $1.2887. Investors are concerned that European Central Bank will inject more cash into the financial system to avoid a credit crunch from the region’s debt crisis. The ECB announced yesterday that after last week’s lending to the euro zone’s banks its balance sheet climbed to the record level of 2.73 trillion euro. Analysts at Westpac think that euro will stay under pressure due to the signs of more formal quantitative easing. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2011-12-29/16333-ecb-balance-extended-record-maximum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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