internationallove Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 "RBC: trading recommendations for EUR/USD"(2011-12-01) Analysts at RBC Capital Markets think that volatility will likely to remain elevated by the end of this trading week as the market awaits the release of ISM Manufacturing PMI and French and Spanish bond auctions later today and US non-farm payrolls figures tomorrow. The specialists note that the single currency has so far recovered this week. In their view, it will be able to continue going up. On the one hand, the short positions on EUR/USD has increased to the level at which traders are no more willing to sell euro. On the other hand, the European currency will remain under pressure of the concerns about indebted peripheral states. The bank points out that the pair has been trading between $1.32 and $1.50 and advised to open shorts at the top of the range expecting euro to fall to $1.3200 and $1.3140. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11308 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 "Commerzbank: comments on USD/CHF"(2011-12-01) Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the greenback didn’t manage yesterday to overcome 0.9240/50 versus Swiss franc and had to return to the lower levels due to dollar’s broad weakening provoked by the central banks’ action. The specialists claim that USD/CHF went down getting below the 3-month upward trending support line at 0.9173. In their view, that means that US currency is poised down for further correction to 0.8950 (50% Fibonacci retracement) and 0.8730/8684 (200-day MA). According to the bank, support is situated in the 0.8555/50 area, while resistance lies in the 0.9341/99 zone (April maximum and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline in 2010-2011). Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11310 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 "WSJ on the outlook for the British currency"(2011-12-01) Analysts at Wall Street Journal note that the demand for the British government bonds is rising amid the euro zone’s debt crisis. The specialists underline that sterling is now seen as an alternative to the single currency that gives pound safe haven status. The pair EUR/GBP lost 2.1% since the beginning of September. WSJ draws attention to the fact that yesterday when the move of the major central banks made the riskier currencies rally, pound weakened against euro as the other refuge currencies. The economists claim that sterling has become more attractive since the SNB pegged franc to euro. At the same time, though pound strengthened versus euro, it only returned to the levels where it began this year, while against US dollar sterling is above the levels of the beginning of 2011 only by 0.6%. UK economic problems are strongly affecting the national currency. Pound is under pressure as the Bank of England’s conducting QE. The economic outlook for Britain is dim, as the country is affected by the weak growth in Europe. Moreover, UK has to conduct its own austerity measure that will also reduce its GDP growth rate. Analysts at Barclays Capital are bearish on GBP/USD in the short-term saying though that pound’s slide will be limited. Some experts say that the negative factors are already priced in pound’s rate, so the pair may strengthen to $1.60. According to the calculations of Societe Generale pound is undervalued by 11%, while the European currency is overvalued by 0.5%. Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11312 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 1, 2011 Author Share Posted December 1, 2011 French and Spanish bond auctions considered successful"(2011-12-01) France has managed to sell today 1.57 billion euro of 10-year bonds. The average yield was equal to 3.18%, lower than at its last auction on November 3 (3.22%). Spain sold 3.75 billion euro of bonds meeting the maximum target. The average yield on 5-year debt, however, was 5.544%, higher that the last time on November 3 (4.848%). Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ note that the demand for the nations’ debt was high enough adding that the market’s sentiment is still positive after the major central banks acted yesterday to facilitate access to dollar liquidity to the euro area. EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3400 area, up from the opening level at $1.3445. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11315 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF"(2011-12-05) Weekly USD/CHF Last week US dollar declined versus Swiss franc after the month of continuous growth. Dollar’s slide may be explained by the general weakness of US currency amid the improved investors’ risk sentiment. Never the less, the prices remain inside the Cloud. The pair is supported by the Turning line (1) and Senkou Span A (3). The Ichimoku Cloud which has so far switched to the upside has widened. Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) hold though weak, but the “golden cross”. The fact that they are directed horizontally means that the rate may consolidate. Chart. Weekly USD/CHF Daily USD/CHF On the daily chart the pair USD/CHF is consolidating around Tenkan-sen (1). This move is likely to continue for some time. All in all, from the technical point of view, the greenback has all chances to resume growth in the near term: the Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) last month formed the “golden cross” (3) – very strong bullish signal as the lines intersected above Kumo. In addition, the lagging Chinkou Span broke through the price chart, while the priced were above the Cloud, and the Ichimoku Cloud itself, though narrowed, but is still bullish. For the greenback could start the rising, the bulls have to overcome resistance in the area of October and November maximums. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11331 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-12-05) Weekly USD/JPY Last week US currency managed to hold above the Turning line (1) which is currently playing the role of support. Resistance for the prices is provided by the Standard line (2) and the descending Ichimoku Cloud (3). The lines Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen are directed horizontally that points at the sideways trend. The prospects of the pair will get significantly better if US currency manages to overcome Kijun-sen (2). Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY On the daily chart the prices manages to hold last week above the Standard line which is painted blue on the chart. The positive factor is the “golden cross” (1) formed by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen above Kumo. These lines will provide support to US currency. At the same time, the Ichimoku Cloud (2) remains very thin. This means that the market is in the state of uncertainty as neither bulls, nor bears have enough strength to change the situation in their favor. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11330 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 "Merkel and Sarkozy step in with new proposals"(2011-12-06) German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy who lead the 2 biggest economies of the euro area claimed yesterday that they will try to establish new rules to tighten euro area economic cooperation. Merkel and Sarkozy agreed that there should be automatic penalties for those nations who violate the allowed limited of budget deficit, while the limits on debt are to be fixed in euro states’ constitutions. Such demonstration of intention to solve the crisis came after Standard & Poor’s warned of possible downgrades of the euro zone’s economies, even the 6 AAA-rated countries. Germany and France also aim to try to precipitate the creation of the permanent European rescue fund from 2013 to 2012 and ensure that decisions by the fund can be made by a “qualified majority” rather than a unanimous vote by the participating governments. According to Sarkozy, the leading euro area’s nations plan to reach consensus on treaty change with other euro leaders by March. At the same time, it’s necessary to note that Merkel and Sarkozy reiterated their rejection of the idea of the joint euro bonds. As a result, analysts at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ say that the main pressure in saving the currency will lie on the ECB. According to the bank, the plans announced by Merkel and Sarkozy on Monday may satisfy the European Central Bank and could prevent S&P from massive ratings cuts in the euro area. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11347 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 "Barclays Capital: comments on USD/JPY"(2011-12-06) Technical analysts at Barclays Capital note that the greenback is testing support at 77.65 trading versus the greenback. The specialists note that if the pair USD/JPY broke below this level, it will go down back to 77.30 yen. In their view, in December US dollar will stay between 77.10 and 78.30 yen. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11349 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 "Nomura: 2012 forecast for EUR/USD"(2011-12-06) Analysts at Nomura expect the single currency to fall versus its US counterpart to $1.20 by the end of the first quarter of the next year. Then the specialists see EUR/USD recover to $1.25 by the end of 2012. Such forecast is based on the assumption that the European Central Bank will have to conduct quantitative easing in order to prevent Greek default. График. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11351 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 "BMO recommends longs on NZD/CAD"(2011-12-06) There are many central banks’ meetings this week, including the Bank of Canada later today and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Thursday. Analysts at BMO Capital compared Canada’s and New Zealand’s economic data and came to conclusion that the latter is better than the former. The specialists think that the RBNZ is likely to lift up the borrowing costs, while the BOC is seen staying on hold. As a result, BMO believes that New Zealand’s dollar will gain versus its Canadian counterpart. The bank suggests buying NZD/CAD in the 0.7875 zone stopping below 0.7735 and targeting 0.8275. Chart. Daily NZD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11341 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 "Barclays Capital: trading recommendations"(2011-12-06) Currency strategists at Barclays Capital are slowly truing more positive on the prospects for the single currency as the region’s gradually moving to a sort of progress. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and the EU leaders gather on Friday. The specialists think that these meetings will be an important step forward and can help to lower the risk premium on euro. Barclays notes that as the majority of market players are currently bearish on the single currency, their sentiment may sharply change. At the same time, the analysts advise traders to avoid euro as EUR/USD’s moves may be extremely volatile and unpredictable. In their view, the ECB’s meeting is unlikely to improve risk sentiment while posing risks to the euro zone’s interest rate advantage. If the European policymakers don’t deliver some relief, euro will get under pressure. As a result, Barclays recommends buying USD/CHF in the 0.92 area stopping below 0.90 and targeting 0.98. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11343 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 "Commerzbank: comments on USD/CAD"(2011-12-07) Analysts at Commerzbank underline that so far the greenback hasn’t managed to overcome 50% Fibonacci retracement of its advance versus Canadian dollar from October to November in the 1.0200 area. The specialists point out that if USD/CAD slides below the 5-month uptrend support line at 1.0100, it will dive to 1.0027 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) and 1.0000 (psychological level) before bouncing up. According to the bank, resistance for the pair is situated at 1.0495 (resistance line) and 1.0523 (November maximum). In the first quarter of 2012 US dollar may reach 1.0590 (200-week MA) and 1.0656 (October maximum). Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11358 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 "Societe Generale: technical levels for USD/JPY"(2011-12-07) Technical analysts at Societe Generale claim that support for USD/JPY is found at 77.60/55 and 77.30, while resistance for the greenback lies at 78.30/40 and 78.70. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11360 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 "BNY Mellon: sentiment about euro again changed"(2011-12-07) The single currency weakened versus the greenback after starting the day on the upside. Analysts at Bank of New York Mellon note that the positive sentiment which has so far began to build switched to the gloomy stance on the euro area's future. Euro declined after German government official told reporters on condition of anonymity that the nation rejects proposals to combine current and permanent euro-zone bailout funds – yesterday the Financial Times reported that the European leaders may agree to do this. In addition, Berlin is pessimistic about the chances to reach a deal on solving the crisis on the December 9 summit. If the summit disappoints the market, EUR/USD may slide to $1.3210 and $1.3145. The majority of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the European Central Bank to cut its benchmark rate tomorrow from by 25 basis points to 1%. If it happens, euro will get under pressure. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11362 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 "BOTMUFJ on the approaching SNB meeting"(2011-12-07) Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ note that investors seem nervous ahead of the Swiss National Bank meeting on December 15. EUR/CHF rose today to 1-month maximum at 1.2440 on the talk that the central bank may lift up the minimal level for the pair from the current 1.20 level. Such speculation was caused by the fact that the nation’s CPI contracted by 0.2% in November, while the economic growth in the third quarter hit the minimal level in more than 2 years. Switzerland’s Finance Minister Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf claimed today that the committee charged with searching for the ways to stem franc’s appreciation examined such issues as negative interest rates and capital controls. At the same time, the majority of the analysts don’t think that the SNB will move the floor for euro. Strategists at Bank Sarasin claim that the policymakers will base their judgments not on the figures for 12 month, but on the medium-term outlook for Swiss inflation. Economists at Zuercher Kantonalbank say that Swiss services prices are rising and there will be higher medical aid contributions next year, so this will support the prices. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11366 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 "BOTMUFJ, RBS: all eyes on the ECB"(2011-12-08) The single currency keeps consolidating versus the greenback ahead of the ECB meeting today and EU summit tomorrow. EUR/USD is hovering this week in the narrow range between $1.3333 (December 6 minimum) and $1.3486 (December 5 maximum). The market expects the central bank to lower its benchmark rate by at least 25 basis points to 1% and introduce 2- to 3-year long-term refinancing operations. If the ECB hinted at more aggressive bond buying and cut rates by 50 basis points, the experts see different possibilities: either euro will weaken to support at $1.3355 (trend line from November 25 minimum), $1.3210 (November minimum) and $1.3145 (October minimum), or, as the analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ say, rebound to on improved risk appetite which could activate strong short-covering to $1.35 or even to $1.3729/3851 (50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of euro’s decline in November). Strategists at BOTMUFJ advise to buy Australian dollar in such case as there are no doubts that it will benefit from the ECB cut. If the European Central Bank doesn’t deliver the expected cut EUR/USD and EUR/JPY may fall by about 100 pips, according to RBS, but not more as investors they are also waiting for the outcome of the EU summit. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11372 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 "BOTMUFJ, RBS: all eyes on the ECB"(2011-12-08) Analysts at Morgan Stanley expect British pound to lose about 11% versus the greenback by the third quarter of 2012 sliding from the current levels in the $1.5700 area to the minimum since March 2009 at $1.3900. The specialists warn that with the 40% of its exports going to Europe British economy will seriously suffer from the euro zone’s crisis and the inevitable recession. In their view, the Bank of England will have to extend quantitative easing dampening the demand for British assets, especially for gilts. According to the bank, in the second half of the next year the positive effects of QE on UK economy begin to show up and the recovery begins. As a result, sterling will get a lift and return to $1.4100. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11375 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 "Morgan Stanley: forecasts for EUR/USD and USD/JPY"(2011-12-08) Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that the single currency will be steadily declining versus the greenback the next year from $1.2500 in the first quarter to $1.2300 in the second, to $1.2100 in the third and to $1.2000 in the final 3 months of 2012. The specialists believe that in Europe the issues of the private sector will add to those of the public one. Trading is going to be volatile and the demand for safe havens will be high. In such circumstances US dollar and Japanese yen tend to benefit. The latter will be strengthening versus the former: the pair USD/JPY is expected to decline to 74.00 in the first quarter, to 73.00 in the second, to 72.00 in the third and 71.00 in the first 3 months of the next year. Chart. Weekly EUR/USD Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11377 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 "Bank of England stays on hold"(2011-12-08) The Bank of England decided to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5% and its assets purchase program at 275 billion pounds. Many economists expect the BoE to extend the amount of asset purchases in February when the 75-billion-pound purchase announced in October is over. UK economy is in a very poor state – according to the OECD (Organization or Economic Cooperation and Development), the nation has already entered mild recession. British central bank projects that inflation – the main obstacle for QE – will drop from the current levels close to the 3-year maximum of 5% below the 2% target level. The pair GBP/USD is trading on the upside but very close to the opening level. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11378 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 "Bank of England stays on hold"(2011-12-08) The Bank of England decided to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5% and its assets purchase program at 275 billion pounds. Many economists expect the BoE to extend the amount of asset purchases in February when the 75-billion-pound purchase announced in October is over. UK economy is in a very poor state – according to the OECD (Organization or Economic Cooperation and Development), the nation has already entered mild recession. British central bank projects that inflation – the main obstacle for QE – will drop from the current levels close to the 3-year maximum of 5% below the 2% target level. The pair GBP/USD is trading on the upside but very close to the opening level. Chart. H4 GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11378 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 "Nomura, RBS: China will keep easing policy"(2011-12-12) The economic data released today in China were mostly lower than expected. The nation’s industrial production contracted from 13.2% in October to 12.4% in November (y/y). Analysts at Nomura expect Chinese GDP growth will slow down from 9.1% in the third quarter of 2011 to 7.5% in the first 3 months of the next year. The specialists say that the country’s economy is rapidly weakening as its exports suffer from the reduced demand overseas and the property market is cooling. In their view, lower inflation (annual CPI growth dropped from 5.5% in October to 4.2% in November) would allow the nation’s monetary authorities to conduct further monetary easing. The bank expects the People’s Bank of China to cut reserve requirements rate in January. Analysts at Royal Bank of Canada claim that as Beijing claimed that it will maintain its “prudent” monetary policy stance, the policymakers will adjust the policy in the form of RRR cuts rather than a cut in benchmark policy rates or a shift to currency depreciation. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11388 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 "S&P comments on the situation in the euro area"(2011-12-13) Reuters cites the comments of Standard & Poor's chief economist on the situation in the euro area made yesterday: «There is probably yet another shock required before everybody in the euro zone reads from the same page, for instance a major German bank experiencing some real difficulties on the markets, which is a genuine possibility in the near term». According to S&P, EU summit agreement was a significant step forward, but not enough. Last week the ratings agency put 15 European nations on watch for potential downgrade. It usually takes the agency about 3 months to act after a warning. The agency said, however, that this time it may make the decision more quickly. S&P intends to urge the European authorities to solve the crisis as the next year the region is facing significant risk of recession and credit crunch. Analysts at Commerzbank claim that though much of the potential negative outcome has already been priced in, the downgrade by S&P would seriously hit the markets. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11409 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 "Citigroup, BoA: expectations ahead of SNB meeting"(2011-12-13) The Swiss National Bank meets on Thursday, December 15. The Libor rate is released at 8:30 a.m. GMT and is followed by the central bank’s press conference. The market’s widely expecting the SNB to do something to weaken franc as the officials have expressed concerns about the strength of the national currency. Currency strategists at Citigroup note that the leveraged funds turned short on franc for the first time in 13 months. Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch claim that the market is estimating the possibility of the SNB raising floor for EUR/CHF from 1.20 to 1.25 by 25%. Some traders even talk about the floor raised to 1.30. The specialists say that for further hints about Swiss monetary policy one should analyze the micro survey of Swiss business that appears in the bank's quarterly bulletin (the one for the fourth quarter is released on December 23, the previous are available here). According to Merrill Lynch, the survey deterioration in September triggered the SNB’s intervention as well as verbal interventions in January and December 2010. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11411 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 "UBS: forecasts on the Fed, the SNB and the ECB will act"(2011-12-13) Analysts at UBS believe that the Federal Reserve won’t announce the third round of quantitative easing at today’s meeting as the nation’s economic data has so far been rather strong. In their view, the Fed may reduce its discount rate and reinstate the Term Discount Window Facility in order to increase liquidity available to US banks. The specialists think that the Swiss National Bank will raise the floor for EUR/CHF from the current level of 1.20 to 1.25 as Swiss CPI declined for 2 months and the nation’s monetary authorities will try to diminish the risks of prolonged deflation. As for Europe, the UBS economists think that the European Central Bank will cut its benchmark interest rate by another 25 bps at its next meeting on January 12 and then once again on March 8. As a result, the borrowing costs in the euro area will slide from the current level of 1% to 0.5%. The strategists don’t rule out the possibility that the central bank will lower rated to 0.5% even earlier and that the ECB could be forced to consider such option as the quantitative easing. UBS underlines that the European economy will be under pressure from austerity measures and debt problems, so the ECB will probably be able to justify bond purchases by its mandate of maintaining price stability rather denying potential accusations in deliberate monetizing of the European debt. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11413 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 "SocGen: technical levels for USD/JPY"(2011-12-13) Technical analysts at Societe Generale expect that the level of 77.15 yen will be able to support the greenback. The specialists note that for the pair USD/JPY could experience growth in the medium term, it should overcome resistance in the 78.30/55 yen area. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11415 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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