internationallove Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 "Commerzbank: comments on USD/CHF"(2011-11-08) Technical analysts at Commerzbank expect the greenback to rise to 0.9082 versus Swiss franc. Then, if US currency manages to overcome this level, it will be poised up to 0.9317 (October maximum) and 0.9341/99 (April maximum and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2010/2011 decline). Here the specialists look forward to some profit taking on USD/CHF. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9054 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 "BMO: sell pound versus franc"(2011-11-08) Currency strategists at BMO Capital Markets advise investors to pay attention to the Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday as it, in their view, represents good trading opportunity. The specialists distinguish 3 possible scenarios: - BoE doesn’t act at all; - BoE undertakes minor quantitative easing on the order of 25 billion pounds; - BoE does more significant easing. The analysts regard the third outcome as likely as British economy is in a very poor condition that together with the euro zone’s debt crisis will keep pound under pressure, while franc has upside potential as a safe haven. BMO thinks that the results of Swiss National Bank’s any intervention won’t last long. As a result, the bank recommends selling sterling versus Swiss franc. Chart. Daily GBP/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9056 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 "Westpac: market is focused on Italy"(2011-11-08) Today the market’s attention is focused on the budget vote in Italy. The nation’s Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is under pressure to step down, so the vote will show whether the premier still has a majority in the 630-seat Chamber of Deputies. Next week Berlusconi plans to hold the confidence vote a on implementation of measures pledged to the European Union that are designed to promote Italian economic growth and reduce its huge debt. Analysts at Westpac Banking claim that it seems that the market will be satisfied only if Berlusconi resigns and technocratic government is formed. The specialists say that when it happens, risk sentiment increases and the euro increases. In their view, one should use the advance of EUR/USD to sell the single currency as the relief for euro won’t last long. Analysts at Societe Generale are worried about high Italian borrowing costs as the 6.5% yields would be soon unbearable for the country with only 1.8% nominal GDP growth and the debt accounting for 120% of GDP. Another thing to watch will be the nation’s auction of fixed-rate bonds on November 14 that may cause euro’s sell-off if the borrowing costs increase once again. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9058 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 "BBH: euro will fall to $1.3145"(2011-11-08) Technical analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman claim that the single currency has breached the support of its middle-term upside channel within which it was trading since September 2010. So, at the end of the last month this line started to play the role of resistance in the $1.4200 area. According to BBH, the pair EUR/USD is poised down to $1.3145 (October 4 minimum). Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9060 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 "Standard Chartered, BarCap: comments on EUR/CHF"(2011-11-08) Swiss central bank Vice President Thomas Jordan claimed that Switzerland’s monetary authorities are closely monitoring franc’s rate and are ready to act if it’s necessary. SNB President Philipp Hildebrand is speaking today at 17: 30 (GMT+4). In his last interview on November 6 Hildebrand warned that if franc remains strong the nation will face the risk of deflation or economic contraction. Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank underline that Swiss monetary authorities do a lot of verbal interference in the currency market. So far this strategy has proved to be effective enough as the SNB manages to keep the pair EUR/CHF above the floor of 1.20 set on August 9 even though the worsening situation in the euro area urges investors to run to franc as a safe haven. Strategists at Barclays Capital expect demand for Swiss currency to increase this week. In their view, the pair EUR/CHF is on its way down to $1.2245. Specialists at ING don’t think that the SNB will raise floor for the pair as such actions may ruin the credibility of the threshold. On the upside the analysts see euro’s advance limited by $1.2500. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9062 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 "Saxo Bank: forecast for EUR/USD"(2011-11-08) Analysts at Saxo Bank believe that the decline of the single currency from the October maximums in the $1.4200 area will continue during the rest of this year and in 2012 when the greenback is expected to gain 25%. The specialists claim that EUR/USD will slide to $1.20/1.30 and then to $1.10/1.15. In their view, euro will be affected by lower ECB rates. Chart. Weekly EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9066 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 "Deutsche Bank on trading difficulties"(2011-11-08) Analysts at Deutsche Bank note that forex trading on the macroeconomic trends is getting more and more difficult. The specialists point out that Swiss franc – the strongest currency this year – added 6.5% versus the greenback in 2011, while Canadian dollar – the weakest 2011 currency – declined against its US counterpart by 1%. The deviation between franc and loonie is less than 8% and judging by the 30-year average is very small. According to the bank, that means that it has become very difficult to find profitable trades. The economists think that in 2011 the situation won’t improve due to the extremely low short-term interest rates of the developed nations’ central banks. According to Deutsche Bank, the next year many traders will start seeking profits outside of G10 currencies. As for the major currencies the bank favors selling euro versus yen and US dollar. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9064 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 8, 2011 Author Share Posted November 8, 2011 "BNY Mellon: forecasts for the major pairs"(2011-11-08) BNY Mellon: forecasts for the major pairs Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9068 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 9, 2011 Author Share Posted November 9, 2011 "Italy: Berlusconi agreed to step down"(2011-11-09) Yesterday Italian controversial Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi didn’t manage to obtain the absolute majority on the routine budget bill as he was supported only by 308 lawmakers out of 630. As a result, Berlusconi, who seems to have lost political confidence, pledged to leave his post as soon as the nation’s parliament approves austerity measures promised to the EU. The whole matter should be over in the next few weeks. The market’s reaction, as expected, was optimistic: investors hope that new authorities will be able to find way out of the crisis. Never the less, analysts at RBS warn traders that the relief won’t last long. Italy now faces technocratic government – the government with limited term meant to carry out specific reforms. It’s likely to be chosen by political leaders and appointed by President Giorgio Napolitano and charged with implementing debt-reduction agenda until April 2013 when the elections are to be held. Conducting new elections on the spot as suggests Berlusconi would delay reforms. Most of the opposition parties have signaled they would support a broader coalition or a technical government. However, one should realize that the country’s 1.9 trillion euro-debt is very difficult to control, so there are no guarantees that new authorities will do much better than Berlusconi. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9072 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 9, 2011 Author Share Posted November 9, 2011 "Commerzbank: comments on USD/JPY"(2011-11-09) Japanese yen keeps gradually strengthening versus the greenback as the concerns about another potential intervention fade. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that USD/JPY is poised down to the level of 50% Fibonacci retracement of the advance made after October 31 intervention at 77.40 yen. The specialists claim that the outlook for the pair will remain bearish as long as it keeps trading below the 4-year downtrend line at 79.64 yen and 55-week MA at 80.52 yen. If US currency manages to overcome these levels, it will be able to rise to 2011 maximum at 85.53 yen. According to the bank, support is found at 77.50/40. If dollar breached these levels, it will drop to 76.93 and 76.22/75.94. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9074 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 9, 2011 Author Share Posted November 9, 2011 "RBC: sell Swiss franc versus Japanese yen"(2011-11-09) Analysts at RBC Capital Markets believe that the single currency will stay in a tight range for some time. Instead, the specialists advise traders to turn to yen and franc as the Swiss National Bank’s and the Bank of Japan’s intervention approaches are different. The SNB is concerned about deflation risk, so it set specific target for franc in order to reverse its advance versus euro and is successfully defending it. The BOJ has also attempted to stop the appreciation of the national currency, but failed to keep yen from strengthening. So, the latter, according to the bank, lacks determination and the use of specific targets of the former. As a result, RBC recommends opening shorts on CHF/JPY in the 87.25 area stopping above 89.30 and targeting 83.00 yen. Chart. Daily CHF/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9076 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 "Mizuho: US dollar may strengthen versus yen"(2011-11-10) echnical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank believe that the greenback may rise to the 4-month maximum versus Japanese yen. The specialists point out that USD/JPY has managed to break above the top of the Ichimoku Cloud. In their view, after Japan’s intervention on October 31 dollar’s baseline has lifted up to 77.44 yen. If the greenback keeps closing above this level until the end of November, bullish pressure on US currency will increase. According to the bank, the pair may rise above August 4 maximum at 80.23 yen. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9085 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 "Mizuho: US dollar may strengthen versus yen"(2011-11-10) yesterday versus the greenback testing levels below $1.3565, the level representing 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its advance in October. The specialists think that if EUR/USD remains trading below $1.3565, it will be poised down to $1.3380/60 (78.6% retracement and September minimum). After that, the next downside target will be $1.3145 (October 4 minimum). According to the bank, resistance levels are situated at $1.3685/90 and $1.3870. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9087 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 "SocGen: sell Aussie versus yen"(2011-11-10) Currency strategists at Societe Generale advise traders to stay out of EUR/USD as there is severe event risk and the pair’s dynamics is extremely volatile. The specialists propose investors to trade on the consequences of the euro area’s debt crisis or, in other words, on the economic growth slowdown and worsening risk sentiment. So, according to the bank, a good trading strategy is selling Australian dollar versus Japanese yen. The analysts advise to open shorts on AUD/JPY in the 79.50 area stopping above 81.50 aiming at 74.00 yen. Chart. Daily AUD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9089 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 "BBH is concerned about US debt issues"(2011-11-10) So far the market’s attention has been focused on the euro zone’s debt problems, investors have almost forgotten that the US also has much to deal with. The United States created special congressional committee – or supercommittee – in order to the debt-reduction measures. The deadline is on November 23. If the policymakers don’t come up with the plan how to decrease debt by $1.2 trillion before the time runs out, America’s spending will be automatically cut in 2013. Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman underline that there is a serious split in the opinions of the committee’s members. In their view, this is one of the factors why the single currency has been performing relatively well versus the greenback so far. By their estimates, traders are pricing in only a 7% probability that the supercommittee will reach a deal by the end of the month. BBH specialists underline that in case of supercommittee’s failure fiscal tightening and sluggish economic growth could make Federal Reserve’s policy more accommodative. That, in its turn, will put the greenback under negative pressure. US dollar, euro and sterling will be competing in weakness, so US currency want lose much to the latter. Taking into account the euro area’s issues the bank still thinks that EUR/USD will fall to $1.29 by the end of the year. At the same time, other G10 currencies are quite likely to outperform dollar. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9091 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 "Merrill Lynch on US credit rating"(2011-11-10) Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch believe that other major rating agencies – Moody's or Fitch – will lower US top credit rating by the end of the year after Standard & Poor's downgraded the world’s leading economy in August. As the reason for such dim outlook the specialists cited concerns about the nation’s huge budget deficit and debt. In their view, the second downgrade will seriously hit weak American economy. If the so-called supercommittee fails to reach a deal to reduce the US deficit by at least $1.2 trillion by November 23, the rating agencies will make their move at the end of November-beginning of December. Merrill Lynch decreased US economic growth forecasts for 2012 and 2013 to 1.8% and 1.4% respectively. At the same time, it’s necessary to note that the agencies don’t intend to hurry with their judgments. Moody's Investors Service plans to take into account such factors as the results of presidential elections and the expiration of the Bush-era tax cuts late in 2012, but not only the committee. Fitch Ratings still has a stable outlook on its AAA rating on the United States, so before any downgrades it will probably revise outlook to negative. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9093 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 "Bank of England left policy unchanged"(2011-11-10) The Bank of England’s meeting passed today in line with the forecasts: as it was expected, the Monetary Policy Committee left its benchmark rate at 0.5% keeping the ceiling for the asset purchases at 275 billion pounds ($437.3 billion). Minutes of the meeting will be released on November 23. The BOE said it will take up to four months to make the additional quantitative easing of 75 billion pound sanctioned in October. The central bank aims to keep the scale of the program under review. Despite the fact that inflation reached 5.2% in September British monetary authorities will decline sharply the next year. Analysts at Nomura International note that the MPC is extremely concerned by the debt crisis in the euro area and potential contagion. In their view, British central bank is very likely to announce more easing until the end of February. According to the European Commission, UK economy risks contracting at least in one of the next few quarters affected by the government’s spending cuts. The pair GBP/USD rose from the weekly minimums in the $1.5890 area to the levels in the $1.5970 zone. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9095 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 11, 2011 Author Share Posted November 11, 2011 "Goldman Sachs lifted forecast for NZD"(2011-11-11) Analysts at Goldman Sachs increased forecasts for New Zealand’s dollar versus its US counterpart from 0.74 to 0.77 in 3 months, from 0.78 to 0.80 in 6 months and from 0.82 to 0.84 in a year. The specialists point out that kiwi has managed to recover from October minimums in the 0.7470 area, though its dynamic was volatile. In their view, the currency is doing pretty well despite the looming concerns about global economic slowdown and New Zealand’s credit rating downgrade by Standard & Poor's and Fitch at the end of September. According to Goldman, the coming 12 months will be characterized by US dollar’s weakness. Chart. Daily NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9102 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 11, 2011 Author Share Posted November 11, 2011 "Wells Fargo about USD/JPY prospects"(2011-11-11) Currency strategists at Wells Fargo note that the moves of the pair USD/JPY are no more strongly correlated with the dynamics of stock market. The specialists underline that the greenback is falling, while stocks in the US are rising. In their view, the mentioned relationship had been growing less and less pronounced since 2009 and was finally broken in the past year due to continuous Japan’s interventions and contracting interest rates differential between the US and Japan. As a result, the advance of the equity market won’t help to bring Japanese yen lower. According to the bank, the greenback will be trapped between 78 and 80 yen during the next 6-12 months. Any attempts to weaken yen won’t be effective in the longer term until US economic prospects remain dim and interest rates – extremely low. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9104 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 11, 2011 Author Share Posted November 11, 2011 "Commerzbank still expects EUR/USD to decline"(2011-11-11) Despite euro’s recovery from 1-month minimum at $1.3483 hit yesterday technical analysts at Commerzbank expect the single currency to fall versus the greenback to $1.3380/60 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement from its October advance and September minimum). The specialists see resistance at $1.3685 and $1.3870. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9106 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 11, 2011 Author Share Posted November 11, 2011 "BBH advises traders to sell EUR/USD"(2011-11-11) Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman note that although the European currency is trading with high volatility versus the greenback, it’s closely correlated with the dynamics of S&P500 index – the specialists estimated the correlation by 80%. The bank claims that in the stock markets are likely to decline in the current state of uncertainty and recommends selling EUR/USD in the $1.3650 area stopping above $1.38, expecting the pair to fall to $1.30 by the end of the year. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9108 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 11, 2011 Author Share Posted November 11, 2011 "The odds for euro area’s breakup increased"(2011-11-11) Last week European leaders for the first time raised the possibility of Greece leaving the currency union if it keeps violating its commitments. That triggered the speculation that German policymakers are already preparing to exclude the peripheral nations out of the euro area. Even though Germany and France denied the reports that they had discussed a possible breakup of the euro zone, the option has become real. As a result, it will likely become much harder for indebted members to convince investors in their ability to get their finances in order and for Merkel, Sarkozy and ECB President Mario Draghi to defend the single currency. The questions concerning currency bloc’s future will be discussed at the EU summit on December 9. Some experts say that the European leaders will probably talk about introducing an exit clause. Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman still think that European authorities will do anything to save the monetary union. In particular the specialists see the way out in increasing integration. Strategists at HSBC warn that the euro zone’s breakup would cause something similar to the Great Depression. The quitting country will face collapse of the banking system, capital outflow and the surge of inflation. Deutsche Bank says that if one nation exits, investors will expect other problem states to do the same. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/9112 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-11-14) Weekly GBP/USD British currency, as expected, consolidated in the upper part of the Ichimoku Cloud. The lines Kijun-sen (1) and Tenkan-sen (2) act as support as well as the lower border of Kumo – Senkou Span B, while resistance is provided by Senkou Span A (3). The Standard line (1) and the Turning line (2) are horizontal that means that sideways trend is likely to continue on the weekly chart. The bearish Cloud indicates that bears are stronger than bulls. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD Last week pound was trading around the Turning line (1) sometimes getting lower, sometimes rising above it. Now Tenkan-sen (1) together with Senkou Span B (3) supports British currency. The Ichimoku Cloud, which has so far turned upwards, widened (4) – bulls have become more confident. The Standard line (2) turned sharply higher that gives the bulls hope for breakthrough in the longer-term. One shouldn’t forget, however, about resistance in the $1.6100 area – at the line connecting September and November maximums. At the same time, if GBP/USD overcomes this zone, the pair will be likely poised for growth. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11117 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-11-14) Weekly USD/JPY As it was expected, Japan’s currency intervention at the last day of October, failed to improve the situation at USD/JPY market: yen continues slowly but surely appreciating as investors crave the refuge. The pair USD/JPY lost support of the Turning line (1) which is now providing resistance for the prices as well as the Standard line (2). Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) are directed horizontally, holding the strong “bearish cross” (5), while the descending Ichimoku Cloud keeps US currency under negative pressure. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY On the daily chart the prices entered the bearish Ichimoku Cloud and reached during the past week its lower border – Senkou Span A – breaching on their way support of the Standard line (1). The Turning line (2) separated from the Standard line trying to get higher but soon it reversed and went sharply down. The market is still in the state of uncertainty: Kijun-sen, which characterizes the longer-term trend, remains horizontal, while the thin Cloud (3) shows that neither bulls, nor bears control the situation. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11118 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF"(2011-11-14) Weekly USD/CHF As it was expected, the bulls are very persistent in trying to move higher and overcome resistance of Kumo. USD/CHF once again approached the Ichimoku Cloud. The Turning line supporting the prices goes sharply up (2), Tenkan-sen (2) and Kijun-sen (1) hold though weak, but still “golden cross” (3). In addition, the descending Kumo (4) has become extremely narrow – the bulls have all chances to make it change direction and reverse the trend upwards. Chart. Weekly USD/CHF Daily USD/CHF On the daily chart everything also goes quite well for the bulls. The prices managed to overcome the Standard line (blue line on the chart). Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen formed the “golden cross” (1) – strong signal as the lines intersected above Kumo. In addition, the rising Ichimoku Cloud once again began widening (2, 3). It would be worth paying attention to the lagging Chinkou Span: if it manages to break above the price chart while the prices remain above the Cloud, this will be a good signal to buy US dollar. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/11119 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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