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"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF"(2011-09-27)

 

 

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Weekly USD/CHF

 

The greenback is gradually strengthening versus its Swiss counterpart.

 

The lines Kijun-sen (1) and Tenkan-sen (2) are getting ready to form the “golden cross”.

 

The sole obstacle on the upwards is the descending Ichimoku Cloud.

 

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Chart. Weekly USD/CHF

 

Daily USD/CHF

 

On the daily chart the greenback’s rate is consolidating within the uptrend.

 

The Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) act as support.

 

The rising Ichimoku Cloud has become wide enough to show that the bulls managed to regain predominance.

 

The general technical outlook remains positive.

 

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Chart. Daily USD/CHF

 

 

 

 

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"SocGen, Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD"(2011-09-27)

 

 

 

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Analysts at Societe Generale and Commerzbank are positive on British pound in the short term. In their view, GBP/USD is on its way up to resistance in the $1.5780/1.5820 area (July 12 minimum/38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from $1.6617).

 

The longer-term outlook for sterling, however, is negative. Commerzbank expects UK currency to decline to the 2009-2011 uptrend line at $1.4973. Support for the pair is found at $1.5347 (December 2010 minimum).

 

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Chart. Daily GBP/USD

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8772

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"Mizuho: demand for yen remains high"(2011-09-28)

 

 

 

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Japanese yen is strengthening versus the greenback on investors’ demand for safe haven.

 

Later in the day the market expects some discouraging data – orders for US durable goods are seen declined by 0.4% in August from July level. The figures are released at 12:30 p.m. GMT.

 

In addition, there are talks that Japanese exporters are repatriating their overseas earnings before the end of the third quarter and the fiscal half-year end that comes on Friday.

 

Analysts at Mizuho note that the markets are still dominated by uncertainty caused by the euro zone’s debt problems and concerns about the world’s economic slowdown. In their view, yen will continue being quite attractive for investors.

 

Strategists at Citibank note that the US dollar still has downside potential. The specialists claim that today USD/JPY will remain trading between 76.30 and 77.30.

 

The pair has been staying between 76 and 78 yen since the Bank of Japan’s intervention at the beginning of August.

 

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Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

 

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"UBS, RBS: forecasts and comments on EUR/USD"(2011-09-28)

 

 

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The single currency keeps crawling up versus the greenback from the 8-month minimum at $1.3362 hit on Monday.

 

Technical analysts at UBS believe that the current upward correction can bring euro higher, but then it will resume its slump. The specialists kept 1-month target for EUR/USD at $1.30 and the 3-month estimate – at $1.20. As for the coming political decisions, the bank is rather optimistic saying that Greece will likely get the sixth tranche of the bailout and that the odds are that Germany will ratify the changes to the EFSF tomorrow.

 

At the same time, the Royal Bank of Scotland cut EUR forecasts yesterday to $1.33 by the end of 2011 and $1.41 by the end of 2012. RBS underlined that there are strong chances that the ECB will lower the borrowing costs amid the rising risk of the region’s falling into recession the next year.

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

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"Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD"(2011-09-28)

 

 

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The single currency went up versus the greenback from the 8-month minimum at $1.3362.

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that euro has reached the level of 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from August at $1.3640. In their view, EUR/USD upward correction is over at this point.

 

It’s necessary to say, however, that the specialists don’t rule out the possibility of the pair’s advance to $1.3723 (23.6% retracement of the move down from May) and to $1.3815. According to the bank, resistance for the European currency is found at $1.3936 (September 15 maximum).

 

If euro resumes moving down, it will drop to $1.3428/1.3360 and then to $1.2870 (2011 minimum). The bank’s long-term target for EUR/USD remains at $1.20.

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8784

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"Goldman Sachs: euro and the situation in Italy"(2011-09-28)

 

 

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Economists at Goldman Sachs claim that unstable political situation in Italy threatens the positive outlook for the single currency.

 

In their view, in the worst case continued reluctance of the Italian authorities to fight the national economy’s structural weaknesses and the worsening public relations may keep affecting the market’s attitude to Italian bonds.

 

Never the less, the analysts are hopeful. The bank believes that Italy will take a more pro-active approach to the structural reforms. According to Goldman, this will help bring the debt levels down into sustainable territory even if Italian economic growth continues to slow. .

 

The bank sees euro at $1.40 in 3 months, $1.45 in 6 months and $1.50 in a year. The strategists warn, however, that any signs that the worst-case scenario begins to come true will affect the forecasts.

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

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"Commerzbank: bullish outlook for USD/CAD"(2011-09-28)

 

 

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Last week the greenback surged versus its Canadian counterpart from the levels in the 0.9800 zone to 1-year maximum at 1.0385 reached on September 26. Then USD/CAD faced resistance of October 2010 high and eased down to $1.0220.

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that support for the pair is found at 1.0140/09 (August, May and June 2010 minimums) and 1.0058/00. In their view, US dollar will recoil up from these levels and resume growth.

 

According to the bank, US currency will manage to strengthen to the 200-week MA at 1.0581.

 

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Chart. Daily USD/CAD

 

 

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"Euro’s gaining ahead of German vote"(2011-09-29)

 

 

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German parliament votes on the changes to the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) at 9:00 a.m. GMT.

 

Euro is strengthening versus the majority of its counterparts as investors believe that German Chancellor Angela Merkel will get enough support for the ratification as main opposition Social Democrats and Greens have said they will vote with Merkel’s government.

 

Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ expect the outcome to be positive. In their view, the single currency is rebounding as traders cover shorts.

 

At the same time, higher EUR/USD levels will likely be used as the selling opportunity. One should also be cautious ahead of Italian debt auction later today.

 

The pair is up from today’s minimum in the $1.3500 area to the levels around $1.3660.

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8791

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"Commerzbank, MIG Bank: euro’s decline will resume"(2011-09-29)

 

 

 

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Euro rose from the 8-month minimum at $1.3362 hit on Monday to the levels around $1.3660.

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the single currency may rise to $1.3732 or even $1.3937 before returning down to $1.3515 and slumping to the recent minimums at $1.3428 and $1.3360.

 

Strategists at MIG Bank are even more bearish. The specialists think that euro will resume its downtrend towards $1.3000 and $1.2800. The sell-off will occur if EUR/USD moves below $1.3362 (September 26 minimum). According to the bank, resistance for the pair is found at $1.3795 (September 21 maximum), $1.3937 (September 15 maximum) and $1.4000 (psychological level).

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

 

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"Commerzbank: comments on AUD/USD"(2011-09-29)

 

 

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Technical analysts at Commerzbank think that Aussie’s correction from the 10-month minimum at $0.9621 hit on September 26 reached its target at $0.9967.

 

The specialists don’t rule out the possibility of some more retracement to $1.0180/1.0200, but expect AUD/USD to resume its downtrend. In their view, if the pair breaks below $0.9835, it will be poised down to the recent minimum at $0.9621 and $0.9407/0.9390 (late 2009 and early 2010 maximums).

 

According to the bank, resistance for Australian dollar is provided by the downtrend line from $1.0503.

 

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Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

 

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"Bernanke: unemployment may lead to the “national crisis”"(2011-09-29)

 

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Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned yesterday that the United States finds itself under threat of a “national crisis”.

 

Bernanke underlines that the situation at the labor market remains intense: the unemployment rate stays at or above 9% since April 2009 and almost 45% of the unemployed are jobless for already 6 months or more.

 

The Fed’s head reiterated that monetary policy along can’t solve the country’s problems and spur its sluggish economic growth. In his view, it’s very important to breathe life in the housing markets. Bernanke also pointed out that the US should use the experience of many emerging market economies supporting strong economic growth through “disciplined fiscal policies”, “encouraging private capital formation and undertaking necessary public investments”, reports Bloomberg.

 

Last week American central bank decided to lengthen long-term interest rates by replacing $400 billion of short-term debt in its portfolio with longer-term Treasuries. At the same time, 3 members of the FOMC opposed this decision and spoke against further monetary stimulus. Despite 2 rounds of quantitative easing, which cost the Fed $2.3 trillion, US growth has stalled.

 

 

 

 

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"Deutsche Bank: recommendation for EUR/USD"(2011-09-29)

 

 

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Analysts at Deutsche Bank note that there’s 84% correlation between the size of the Eurosystem's consolidated balance sheet and the dynamics of the single currency versus the greenback. So, when the balance sheet expands, EUR/USD weakens and vice versa.

 

However, the specialists say that as the 2 rates are moving in tandem rather than one reacting to the other – that makes it difficult to use this relationship for trading strategies. There may be the case, though, when this information will be quite useful – if European debt crisis is solved by some kind of balance sheet expansion.

 

The specialists think that the odds of such outcome are high. In their view, the euro area will either use the stabilization fund or the ECB will continue buying debt of the peripheral countries. As a result, most ways which don’t involve immediate sovereign ratings implications lead to a continuation of the ESCB’s balance sheet expansion and, consequently, to euro’s depreciation.

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

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"Citigroup reduced global economic forecast"(2011-09-29)

 

 

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Analysts at Citigroup revised down their global economic growth forecasts for the second time in less than a month. The specialists lowered 2011 growth estimate from 3.2% to 3.0% and the 2012 one – from 3.7% to only 2.9%. According to the classification of the IMF and the World Bank, 2% global growth means is considered as global recession.

 

The bank cut China's 2012 GDP growth rate from 9% to 8.7%. The outlooks for the United States, Europe, Japan, Canada and the UK were also reduced.

 

Citigroup expects a long period of negative real interest rates in the main advanced economies. The analysts think that the ECB is likely to cut the borrowing costs, while the Bank of England will start the second round of quantitative easing in the next 1-2 months. In their view, Moody's and Standard & Poor's will keep downgrading euro zone nations such as Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal and Cyprus.

 

All in all, the economists advise investors to be cautious, avoid risks and favor US dollar and Japanese yen.

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/JPY

 

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8801

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"Germany gave green light for EFSF"(2011-09-29)

 

 

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The single currency keeps trading on the upside as German parliament approved the expansion of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) – there were 523 in favor of legislation versus 85 votes against it. Tomorrow there will be another vote in the upper house, or Bundesrat.

 

The bill enables EFSF to buy the bonds of the indebted peripheral nations and offer emergency loans to governments. The fund is boosted from 440 to 780 billion euro, the amount guaranteed by Germany increased from 123 to 211 billion euro.

 

The EFSF extension has been already ratified in Slovenia, Belgium, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Spain, France, Portugal and Finland.

 

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase expect euro to continue its “remarkable resilience” until the end of the year and end 2011 at $1.38. Strategists at Lloyds Bank say that the risk of the currency union’s disorderly breakup decreased. In their view, EUR/USD will finish 2011 at $1.40, though the specialists don’t rule out the possibility of euro’s slump to $1.32 before that.

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

 

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"Fitch and S&P downgraded New Zealand"(2011-09-30)

 

 

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New Zealand’s dollar fell to the 6-month minimum versus the greenback at $0.7626 after Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings downgraded the nation’s debt from AA+ to AA with stable outlook.

 

The agencies explained their decision by New Zealand’s high external debt and its persistent current account deficit. Strategists at Citigroup underline that Fitch’s and S&P’s move seems surprising as everyone has been aware about these problems for a long time.

 

It’s also necessary to note that the survey conducted by ANZ National Bank that was released today showed that New Zealand’s business sentiment has worsened: only 30.3% of companies expect the economy will improve during the next 12 months compared with 34.4% in August. In addition, China, New Zealand’s second-biggest export market, reported the longest contraction of the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) in 2 years.

 

Analysts at Westpac note that the global outlook remains rather discouraging, so commodity currencies like Aussie and kiwi will likely stay under pressure. In the view, New Zealand’s dollar may slide to $0.7500.

 

The pair NZD/USD lost 10% in September, while AUD/USD dropped by 8.8%.

 

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Chart. Daily NZD/USD

 

 

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"Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD"(2011-09-30)

 

 

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Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that British pound has finished its upward correction versus the greenback from 1-year minimum at $1.5325 hit on September 22 as it reached this week the levels in the $1.5700 area.

 

The specialists think that GBP/USD will resume its decline. In their view, the sell-off of sterling will be triggered when it dips below $1.5500.

 

According to the bank, support for the pair is found at $1.5297. In the longer term, British currency is poised down to the 2009-2011 uptrend line at $1.4973.

 

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Chart. Daily GBP/USD

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8807

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"Wells Fargo: bearish EUR/USD forecast"(2011-10-03)

 

 

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Analysts at Wells Fargo are bearish on the single currency in the medium term. In their view, the pair EUR/USD will drop to $1.3200 by the end of this year and may slide to $1.2500 by the end of 2012.

 

The specialists believe that the weak economic outlook will hamper the results achieved due to the policymakers’ actions. In addition, the ECB’s approach has changed from the hawkish mode to the more dovish one. The central bank is likely to cut rates or conduct liquidity easing measures during the next few months.

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

 

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"Deutsche Bank: EUR/USD is poised to decline"(2011-10-03)

 

 

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Analysts at Deutsche Bank point out that the European currency has fallen versus the greenback from the May maximums in the $1.4940 area to the levels below $1.3400.

 

In their view, euro’s decline is going to continue: the specialists expect EUR/USD to keep weakening during the next 12 months.

 

According to the bank, the pair will fall to $1.3000 in 3 months, then slide to $1.2700 by the end of the first quarter of 2012 and then reach $1.2500 in 12 months time.

 

The strategists think that euro’s dynamics will depend on the actions the euro zone’s policymakers will make to stem the crisis. Here it’s necessary to take the account the monetization risks and the downgrade risk of the member nations and the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) itself.

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

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"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-10-03)

 

 

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Weekly GBP/USD

 

The prices remain within the Ichimoku Cloud. All lines of the indicator stay horizontal (1, 2, 4), so sterling is likely to consolidate within Kumo.

 

The Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) as well as the upper border of the Ichimoku Cloud act as resistance for GBP/USD.

 

The Cloud has recently switched to the bearish mode. However, the negative Kumo is still very thin – the bears haven’t gained much power yet.

 

As a result, the bulls may be able to strengthen their positions. It’s quite possible that the pound will manage to rebound from Senkou Span B (3).

 

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Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

 

Daily GBP/USD

 

On the daily pound managed last week to overcome resistance provided by Tenkan-sen (1) and consolidate above it. Never the less, at the beginning of this week the pair once again tested the levels below the Turning line (1).

 

The descending Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4) keeps widening that means that the bears are dominating at the market. The Standard line (2) also acts as resistance.

 

The previous minimums hit on September 22 and 23 play the role of support. At the moment all the lines of the indicator are directed horizontally (1, 2, 3, 4) that means that pound will likely remain within the current range moving sideways.

 

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Chart. Daily GBP/USD

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8821

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<div>"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-10-03)</div>

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<div>Weekly USD/JPY</div>

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<div>On the weekly chart the pair keeps trading between 76 and 78 yen as it has been doing since the beginning of August. High demand for yen is combined with risk of BoJ interventions.</div>

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<div>At the same time, it’s necessary to note that the Turning line went sharply down (1), while the Standard line also began deviating down (2). The bearish Ichimoku Cloud has also widened a bit (3, 4). </div>

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<div>Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) still hold the strong “dead cross” in place (5) providing resistance for the prices.</div>

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<div>Chart. Weekly USD/JPY

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<div>Daily USD/JPY</div>

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<div>On the daily USD/JPY chart the prices were moving gradually up during the last several days – the greenback has overcome the Turning line (1) and got support from it and even ested the Standard line (2). </div>

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<div>Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) still hold in place the strong “dead cross” (5) formed below Kumo. </div>

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<div>As a result, all the signals mean that it would be very hard for the bulls to keep moving up – the pair still finds itself under pressure provided by the bearish Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4).</div>

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<div>Chart. Daily USD/JPY

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<div>Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8822</div>

 

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Weekly USD/JPY

 

On the weekly chart the pair keeps trading between 76 and 78 yen as it has been doing since the beginning of August. High demand for yen is combined with risk of BoJ interventions.

 

At the same time, it’s necessary to note that the Turning line went sharply down (1), while the Standard line also began deviating down (2). The bearish Ichimoku Cloud has also widened a bit (3, 4).

 

Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) still hold the strong “dead cross” in place (5) providing resistance for the prices.

 

315121abej5wv1.gif

 

Chart. Weekly USD/JPY

 

Daily USD/JPY

 

On the daily USD/JPY chart the prices were moving gradually up during the last several days – the greenback has overcome the Turning line (1) and got support from it and even ested the Standard line (2).

 

Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) still hold in place the strong “dead cross” (5) formed below Kumo.

 

As a result, all the signals mean that it would be very hard for the bulls to keep moving up – the pair still finds itself under pressure provided by the bearish Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4).

 

315484928elqisk.gif

 

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

 

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8822

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"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF"(2011-10-03)

 

 

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Weekly USD/CHF

 

The greenback keeps gradually strengthening versus Swiss franc.

 

Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen are ready to form the “golden cross” (1).

 

The Ichimoku Cloud is the only obstacle on the pair’s way up.

 

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Chart. Weekly USD/CHF

 

Daily USD/CHF

 

On the daily chart US currency continued consolidation above the Turning line (1) that is acting as support (1). The next support is the Standard line (2).

 

The rising Ichimoku Cloud has already become wide enough that means that the bulls have finally managed to regain the lead.

 

All lines of the indicator (1, 2, 3 and 4) have turned horizontal. The general technical picture is positive.

 

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Chart. Daily USD/CHF

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8823

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"Euro: this week’s events and analysts’ comments"(2011-10-03)

 

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The single currency remains near the 8-month minimum versus the greenback at $1.3313 hit earlier today and close to the 10-year minimum against Japanese yen at 101.92 hit on September 26.

 

The market is concerned about the possibility of Greece’s default and the health of the euro zone's banking sector.

 

Coming events

 

The focus this week will be on the monetary policy and growth. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday, October 6. Some investors are looking forward to a 25-basis-point rate cut even despite high September inflation data. The ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet speaks on Tuesday, October 4, at 1:00 pm GMT.

 

It’s also necessary to note that today begins 2-day meeting of the European finance ministers. The Ecofin is expected to put pressure on Greece to implement agreed structural reforms and to discuss the ways of increasing the European Financial Stability Facility’s (EFSF) financial firepower.

 

The decision about granting Greece the sixth tranche of the bailout – 8 billion-euro ($11 billion) – is postponed to the middle of October as the nation tries to reduce its huge budget shortfall.

 

Bearish forecasts

 

UBS: EUR/USD shorts will increase.

 

ING: euro will fall to $1.30/1.31.

 

Commerzbank: the pair will slide down to $1.2860 (2010 minimum) and $1.2000. Key resistance in the short term is seen at $1.3937 (September 15 maximum).

 

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8825

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"BMO Capital: trading recommendations ahead of NFP"(2011-10-03)

 

 

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US September Non-Farm Payrolls data is released on Friday, October 7, at 12:30 pm GMT. The figures will be watched more than ever after US jobs growth stagnated in August.

 

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch expect to see the figure of 75,000, but warn that the risk is to the downside.

 

Strategists at BMO Capital say that if the market expects NFP to be somewhere close to 50,000 and the indicator posts 70,000, one should sell USD/CAD. If the published NFP figure finds itself between 70,000 and 30,000, it would be better to refrain from actions. If the figure comes below under 30,000, the specialists recommend buying the greenback versus Swedish krona.

 

According to BMO, the first scenario is the most likely. As a result, the specialists advise investors to sell US dollar versus its Canadian counterpart at 1.0400 stopping just above 1.0470 and targeting 1.0155.

 

At the same time, economists at J.P. Morgan point out that investors need to be cautious with trade like this watching other data released on Friday – Canadian nonfarm payrolls and Ivey PMI survey.

 

US September Non-Farm Payrolls data is released on Friday, October 7, at 12:30 pm GMT. The figures will be watched more than ever after US jobs growth stagnated in August.

 

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch expect to see the figure of 75,000, but warn that the risk is to the downside.

 

Strategists at BMO Capital say that if the market expects NFP to be somewhere close to 50,000 and the indicator posts 70,000, one should sell USD/CAD. If the published NFP figure finds itself between 70,000 and 30,000, it would be better to refrain from actions. If the figure comes below under 30,000, the specialists recommend buying the greenback versus Swedish krona.

 

According to BMO, the first scenario is the most likely. As a result, the specialists advise investors to sell US dollar versus its Canadian counterpart at 1.0400 stopping just above 1.0470 and targeting 1.0155.

 

At the same time, economists at J.P. Morgan point out that investors need to be cautious with trade like this watching other data released on Friday – Canadian nonfarm payrolls and Ivey PMI survey.

 

3172248rv9cv6w1.jpg

 

Chart. Daily USD/CAD

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8835

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"Forecast Pte: technical comments on EUR/JPY"(2011-10-04)

 

 

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Technical analysts at Forecast Pte claim that he single currency may fall below 100 yen.

 

The specialists point out that euro’s MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) is in the downtrend: the indicator was found today at minus 1.8267 that’s below the signal line of minus 1.6881.

 

The pair EUR/JPY hit today the 100.74 level, the lowest since June 2001. According to the strategists, euro may slide to 96.84 yen, the level last visited on December 11, 2000.

 

4135522tectkyu9.jpg

 

Chart. Daily EUR/JPY

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8837

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