FBS.com - Daily/Weekly Analysis / Market News

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<div>"Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD"(2011-09-16)</div>

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<div>Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that euro’s upward correction versus the greenback from $1.3595 was greater when they have expected. In their view, EUR/USD faces resistance ahead of $1.4022/35 (the 200-week and the 200-day MAs) and won’t be able to overcome it.</div>

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<div>The specialists reiterate that the longer-term outlook for the single currency is negative: the pair is seen falling to $1.3428/10 (February minimum and 50% retracement of the advance from 2010 to 2011) and then $1.20.</div>

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<div>Chart. Daily EUR/USD

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<div>Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8662[/color]</div>

 

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<div>"Credit Agricole reduced USD/JPY forecast"(2011-09-16)</div>

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<div>Analysts at Credit Agricole lowered their forecast for the greenback versus Japanese yen by the end of the year from 90 to 80 yen and from 102 to 85 yen by the end of 2012.</div>

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<div>The specialists note that there are 2 factors strengthening yen: firstly, its status of the safe haven and, secondly, US yield advantage over Japan has narrowed during the recent months. Credit Agricole underlines that the Swiss National Bank’s decision to peg franc to euro increases the attractiveness of Japanese currency. According to the bank, there is little chance that significant easing in risk aversion and/or better US economic data.</div>

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<div>The pair USD/JPY keeps trading in the narrow range between 76 and 77.85 yen staying close to the record minimum at 75.94 yen. </div>

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<div>Chart. Daily USD/JPY

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<div>Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8664</div>

 

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<div>"FX Concepts about the situation in the euro area"(2011-09-16)</div>

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<div>John Taylor, the head of the world’s largest currency hedge fund FX Concepts, believes that the single currency has to be restructured as the euro zone nations seem unable to coordinate their policy, while the continuous coherent action is what is needed to overcome the region’s debt crisis.</div>

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<div>In his view, the ECB liquidity plan won’t solve any of the European major problems. </div>

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<div>Taylor claims that there’s a mixture of a very unpleasant things in the euro area – a “horrific cocktail” – that consists of monetary restraint, tightness and fiscal austerity.</div>

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<div>The specialist says that Greece ought not to leave the monetary union. In his opinion the nation is getting pushed out of the currency bloc but the policymakers do nothing to stop that process.</div>

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<div>Chart. Daily EUR/USD

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<div>Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8666</div>

 

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"RBC: forecasts for USD/CAD"(2011-09-16)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Currency strategists at RBC Capital Markets believe that the greenback’s upward potential versus its Canadian counterpart in the medium term is limited as there’s no great demand for US currency.

 

The specialists note that loonie seem to be attractive for investors on the back of European debt crisis and easing policies conducted by the most of the developed nations’ central banks. In their view, in the current circumstances Canadian dollar is perceived as the hard currency that is widely traded all over the world and may serve as a good store of value.

 

The bank underlines that loonie was one of the worst performers June 2010 showing better results only against US dollar, so this may eventually help CAD strengthen versus other G10 currencies.

 

According to the bank, the pair will finish 2011 at 1.01, the first quarter of the next year at 1.00 and end 2012 at 0.98.

 

 

Chart. Daily USD/CAD

 

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8668

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"Credit Agricole corrected EUR/USD forecasts"(2011-09-16)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Analysts at Credit Agricole continue being bearish on the prospects of the single currency versus the greenback.

 

Never the less, the specialists revised their forecast for EUR/USD by the end of the year a bit higher from $1.3000 to $1.3700. Such change of the outlook reflects the expectations that the period of US economic weakness will last longer than it was thought before and that the Federal Reserve will further loosen its policy, though not in the form of the third round of quantitative easing.

 

The bank has cut 2012 euro zone’s growth forecast as well from 1.6% to 1.1%, while the growth in the second half of this year is seen as minimal. The ECB is likely pause its tightening cycle.

 

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8670

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"Nomura: euro will rise to $1.40"(2011-09-16)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Despite the deepening crisis in the euro area strategists at Nomura Securities see some light for the single currency. In their view, in the short term euro may strengthen versus the greenback.

 

The specialists underline that the central banks will likely buy euro to rebalance their portfolios for the end of the quarter. Nomura says that Greece may soon receive financial aid.

 

In addition, the Federal Reserve is expected to sound dovish on its meeting that is taking place next week on September 20-21 – dollar-negative factor.

 

According to Nomura, EUR/USD will reach $1.40 in the near term. However, the analysts are still bearish on the pair in the medium term – in the fourth quarter they see it drop to $1.30. As a result, the economists advise traders to use euro’s advance to sell it.

 

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8672

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"European policymakers offered no plan"(2011-09-19)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The single currency opened with a bearish gap versus the greenback as the debt situation in the euro area remains very tough. The markets are extremely disappointed as the European finance ministers didn’t offer any solution of the debt crisis during the Ecofin summit in Poland.

 

US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner who attended the meeting proposed to increase the size of The European Financial Stability facility (EFSF) with the ECB funds, but German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann rejected this suggestion.

 

Today Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos meets the EU and the IMF officials to decide whether the nation can meet the conditions of the rescue loans is eligible for the next tranche of the bailout payment in October and for a second rescue package.

 

It’s also necessary to note that Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats were only second in Berlin state election – the sign that Merkel’s intention to save euro at any cost providing financial help for the troubled periphery nations is becoming more and more unpopular.

 

The pair EUR/USD lost 1% sliding from Friday’s close at $1.3795 to the levels below $1.3700.

 

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8674

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"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-09-19)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly GBP/USD

 

Last week the bears have won once again: pound declined approaching the middle of the Ichimoku Cloud.

 

The lines Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) have quitted neutral state deviating down. That means that the prices are likely to aim to the lower border of Kumo.

 

The bullish Cloud (3) itself is narrowing – the bulls keep losing powers.

 

 

Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

 

Daily GBP/USD

 

On the daily chart the picture seems to be more bearish. All attempts of the bulls to push sterling higher were in vain. The Turning line (1), the Standard line (2) and Kumo are providing solid resistance for the pair GBP/USD.

 

All lines of the Indicator are directed down (1, 2, 3 and 4). The descending Ichimoku Cloud is widening as Senkou Span A (3) is moving only downwards.

 

As a result, technical analysis points out that the pound may keep depreciating.

 

 

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8678

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"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-09-19)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly USD/JPY

 

The situation on the weekly USD/JPY chart remains almost the same. The prices keep consolidating between 76 and 78 yen. High demand for yen keeps contrasting with the risk of the Bank of Japan’s interventions.

 

The greenback still lacks support, while resistance is provided by the declining Tenkan-sen (1) and the horizontal Kijun-sen (2) as well as by the descending Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4). The Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) keep the strong “dead cross” in place (5).

 

 

Chart. Weekly USD/JPY

 

Daily USD/JPY

 

Last week the prices have once again dropped below the Standard line (1) and the Turning line (2) which now act as support for the greenback.

 

Kijun-sen (1) and Tenkan-sen (2) formed the “golden cross” (5), though the signal was rather weak as the intersection took place below the Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4).

 

At the same time, all lines of the Indicator turned horizontal (1, 2, 3 and 4) pointing at the continuing consolidation. US dollar may be able to rebound a bit, though it won’t manage to rise above Tenkan-sen (2).

 

 

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8679

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"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF"(2011-09-19)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly USD/CHF

 

On the weekly chart USD/CHF will keep consolidating in the 0.8700/0.8900 area after the powerful advance made after Switzerland’s central bank had pegged the national currency to euro the weak earlier.

 

Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) have leveled up in the horizontal state providing support for the greenback. Resistance is generated only by Kumo (3, 4).

 

The Ichimoku Cloud is narrowing – Senkou Span A (3) is directed sideways, while Senkou Span B is moving down (3) to meet it.

 

 

Chart. Weekly USD/CHF

 

Daily USD/CHF

 

The pair keeps moving within the uptrend.

 

Tenkan-sen (2) and Kijun-sen (1) have gone sharply up supporting the prices.

 

The bullish Ichimoku Cloud is rapidly widening as Senkou Span A (4) has jerked up, while Senkou Span B remains in the horizontal mode (3).

 

The rate’s consolidation seen last week may take some more time, but the general technical picture is positive.

 

 

Chart. Daily USD/CHF

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8680

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"Jyske Bank: sell GBP/USD"(2011-09-19)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

pound declined from last week’s maximum at $1.5870/85 to the 8-month minimums in the $1.5685 area.

 

Currency strategists at Jyske Bank are bearish on GBP/USD. The specialists advise investors to sell sterling taking profit at $1.5415 and placing stops at $1.6012.

 

According to the bank, pound is vulnerable due to the speculation that British budget deficit increased to 12 billion pounds in August after July’s almost 2-billion surplus. In such case, the UK will likely lose its credit rating.

 

The data on Public Sector Net Borrowing are published on Friday at 12:30 pm (GMT+4).

 

 

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8688

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"UBS, Nomura: dollar’s gaining ahead of the Fed"(2011-09-19)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US dollar strengthened versus euro, pound and commodity currencies ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s 2-day meeting that begins tomorrow.

 

Analysts at Wells Fargo, Barclays Capital and Goldman Sachs think that the FOMC may decide to replace some of the short-term Treasury securities in the Fed’s $1.65 trillion portfolio with the long-term debt in order to lower the nation’s rates. Such options in referred to among traders as «Operation Twist».

 

The dollar-positive factor is that the market doesn’t expect more quantitative easing. Other drivers of the greenback are renewed demand for safe havens and the elevated stock market volatility.

 

Analysts at UBS are positive on US currency in the medium term. Analysts at Nomura claim that the US monetary authorities are fulfilling their pledges and supporting the markets. In their view, the greenback will be more attractive than the single currency due to the continuing euro zone’s debt crisis.

 

However, though QE is unlikely, there’s some risk that the Fed expand its balance sheet on the negative economic data.

 

According to the data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net short positions in euro has risen to 54,459 contracts during the week that ended on September 13.

 

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8690

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"UBS: technical comments on USD/CHF"(2011-09-19)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Technical analysts at UBS note that the greenback has risen from last week’s minimum at 0.8645 hit on September 15 to the levels above 0.8854. In their view, the pair USD/CHF can now climb to September 12 maximum at 0.8928 and then to April 20 maximum at 0.9012. The specialists claim that support in the near term is found at 0.8645.

 

 

Chart. Daily USD/CHF

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8692

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"Commerzbank: bearish EUR/USD forecast"(2011-09-20)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the single currency found itself under severe negative pressure versus the greenback yesterday.

 

The specialists underline that EUR/USD has so far closed below the major support represented by the 2010-2011 uptrend, the 55-week MA, the July minimum, the 200-week MA and the 200-day MA.

 

In their view, the pair is poised down to $1.3428/10 (February minimum and 50% retracement of the advance made in 2010-2011) and then to $1.2860 (2010 minimum).

 

As for the longer term, the bank keeps its target at $1.2000.

 

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8696

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"Forecast Pte expects GBP/USD to decline"(2011-09-20)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Technical analysts at Forecast Pte claim that British pound may fall versus the greenback to more than 8-month minimum at $1.5489, last seen on January 10.

 

This level represents 50% Fibonacci retracement of sterling’s advance from May 20, 2010, minimum at $1.4231 to the maximum of April 28, 2011, at $1.6747.

 

The specialists are bearish on GBP/USD as the pair has breached its 200-day MA. The MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) is still negative (at -0.0158, below the signal line at -0.012) that’s also a bearish signal.

 

According to the strategists, resistance is found at September 13 maximum of $1.5870. In their view, the downtrend is strong and any attempts of the bulls to push pound higher would result in nothing more than a correction.

 

 

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

 

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8698

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"S&P cut Italian credit rating"(2011-09-20)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The concerns about the euro zone’s future have strengthened as Standard & Poor’s lowered Italy’s credit rating from A+ to A.

 

The agency said that the nation having the second biggest debt burden in Europe after Greece will face a lot of obstacles in trying to reduce it. Among these difficulties the agency cited weakening economic growth, precarious position of Italian government and rising borrowing costs. S&P lowered Italian average annual economic growth forecast for 2011-2014 from 1.3% to 0.7%.

 

This month Silvio Berlusconi’s government has passed a 54 billion-euro ($74 billion) austerity package aiming to balance the budget in 2013. That allowed the ECB to buy Italian debt easing down the pressure on the nation.

 

The yield on Italy’s 10-year bonds rose to 5.619% that is 385 basis points more than similar German debt. Rising borrowing costs make it extremely hard for the country to sell more debt – Italy needs to sell more than 50 billion euro of bonds this year. There are 3 auctions set for next week starting on September 27.

 

Another major rating firm, Moody’s Investors Service, will decide next month whether to cut ratings on Italy and Spain.

 

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8700

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"BoA, Citigroup: Fed's decisions won’t affect the greenback"(2011-09-20)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Federal Reserve’s 2-day meeting begins today. Tomorrow at 10:15 pm (GMT+4) the FOMC releases its statement and the Federal Funds Rate.

 

Investors expect American monetary authorities to announce Operation Twist – increasing the duration of the central bank’s bond portfolio in order to lower the long-term interest rates.

 

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch think that the news won’t make any significant impact on the greenback’s rate as they are already largely priced in by the market. The specialists underline that since such option as Operation Twist was mentioned in August the dollar index has added 4.2%, so its implementation will lead to neutral effect.

 

Currency strategists at Citigroup share this opinion. The bank leaves room for some short-term effects, but thinks that the market’s attention will be focused on the euro zone’s debt crisis and even on the concerns about Asian economic growth.

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8702

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"Barclays Capital: survey on euro’s prospects"(2011-09-20)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Analysts at Barclays Capital conducted survey among more than 500 institutional investors on the prospects of the single currency.

 

The majority of respondents (56%) believe that the European Central Bank will undertake large-scale buying of sovereign debt from troubled countries like Italy and Spain. Some of the interviewed think that the currency bloc will ultimately turn into the fiscal union. Barclays note that many investors think that some form of quantitative easing is likely in Europe.

 

However, almost 25% of the surveyed expect the euro area to break up. In the bank's second-quarter survey, only 1% expected sovereign-debt restructuring in many countries, leading to a euro-zone breakup in 2012. The number of respondents expecting some adverse spillover onto emerging markets almost doubled to 30% compared with the previous quarter.

 

Nearly 70% of foreign-exchange investors surveyed think that the markets will be focused on euro zone's issues in the next 3 months. 60% of equities investors regard the European banking crisis as the biggest risk to global stock markets. The pair EUR/USD is now seen trading below $1.35 during the next half a year.

 

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8704

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"MIG Bank: bearish view on USD/CHF"(2011-09-20)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The greenback rose versus Swiss franc from last week’s minimum at 0.8645 hit on September 15 but its advance was limited by the resistance around 0.8875.

 

Technical analysts at MIG Bank think that USD/CHF may return down to 0.8645 and then drop to 0.8400 and 0.8250. In their view, the pair remains vulnerable to the potential declines as long as it’s trading below 0.8929.

 

 

Chart. Daily USD/CHF

 

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8706

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"Switzerland: GDP forecast’s reducedreenback"(2011-09-20)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Switzerland’s government lowered its economic-growth forecasts for 2011 and 2012 from 2.1% and 1.5% to 1.9% and 0.9% respectively. Export growth estimate was trimmed from 4.6% this year and 3% the next to 3.2% and 0.7% respectively.

 

The reason for this downward revision is the fact Swiss franc’s rate is still excessively strong even after the Swiss National Bank has set the ceiling for the nation currency’s rate versus euro. According to the data released today, the nation’s exports fell in August by 7%.

 

The nation’s authorities say that isolated quarters of economic contraction are possible, though deep recession seems to be unlikely.

 

 

Chart. Daily EUR/CHF

 

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8708

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"Commerzbank: USD/CHF is gaining on the SNB talk"(2011-09-21)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The greenback went up versus Swiss franc from the day’s minimum at 0.8692 getting above 0.8940 on the speculation that the Swiss National Bank has imposed a tighter peg for the national currency. There’s talk that the SNB has removed the EUR/CHF target up to 1.25 per euro. The central bank didn’t confirm the information, but franc is experiencing general weakness.

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that USD/CHF has broken up important resistance at 0.8850/0.8950 (double Fibonacci retracement, 200-day MA and May minimum). In their view, US dollar is on its way up to 0.9103 (55-week MA) and 0.9340/0.9400 (March maximums and double Fibonacci retracement).

 

According to the bank, support for the pair is found at 0.8640/0.8462 (23.6%/38.2% retracement of dollar’s advance in September).

 

 

Chart. Daily USD/CHF

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8710

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"BarCap: ECB will cut rates in October"(2011-09-21)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The International Monetary Fund claimed that the European Central Bank should lower its benchmark interest rate from the current 1.5% level if the euro zone’s economic growth remains at risk.

 

Analysts at Barclays Capital expect the ECB to reduce the borrowing costs by 25 basis points the next month to 1.25% and to widen the interest rate “corridor” back to +/-100 basis points which would make the deposit facility decrease by 50 basis points to 0.25%. Taking into account the excess bank reserves, that would let the EONIA (overnight) rate to trade significantly lower.

 

According to the bank, things remain like that until there’s need for policy normalization. The specialists believe that it may happen in the second half of 2013.

 

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8712

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"Westpac: commodity currencies are seen declining"(2011-09-21)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Analysts at Westpac note that the ongoing euro zone’s debt crisis is seriously hurting investors’ risk sentiment bringing their attention to Greece and Italy. In their view, the risky currencies currently seem to be very vulnerable.

 

The specialists recommend selling commodity currencies. In particular, the bank prefers shorts on Australian dollar versus its US counterpart targeting 1.0000 and stopping above 1.0335.

 

 

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8714

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"Credit Agricole: pound’s declining after MPC minutes"(2011-09-21)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

British pound fell to the 8-month minimum versus the greenback at $1.5612.

 

It happened after the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee’s September meeting minutes showed that the policymakers are regarding the possibility of embarking on additional monetary stimulus.

 

The MPC members point out that UK GDP growth in the second half of 2011 may be significantly weaker than it was thought last month.

 

Analysts at Commerzbank note that the central bank has made it clear that if the situation worsens, it’s going to ease it policy. In their view, Britain’s economic prospects are very uncertain and the nation is vulnerable to substantial downside risks.

 

The officials voted 8-1 to maintain the current size of the asset purchase program and were unanimous in keeping the benchmark rate at the record minimum of 0.5%.

 

Currency strategists at Credit Agricole claim that sterling will go down to test $1.55. In their view, the currency will remain under pressure during the next few weeks as the as market shifts expectations for a UK QE2 to the November meeting.

 

Analysts at Morgan Stanley keep being bearish on GBP/USD expecting the pair to fall to $1.53 by the end of the year and to $1.51 at the beginning of the next year.

 

 

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8716

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"IMF lowered economic forecasts"(2011-09-21)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The International Monetary Fund lowered US economic growth forecast for 2011 and 2012 from 2.5% and 2.7% (June’s estimate) to 1.5% and 1.8%. The outlook for the euro area was reduced from 2% this year and 1.7% the next to 1.6% and 1.1% respectively. The world’s GDP will increase by 4% as in 2011, as in 2012 versus 4.3% and 4.5% advance seen earlier.

 

According to the organization, global economy is entering a “dangerous new phase” and the policymakers are to act decisively reducing deficits in order to improve prospects and reduce risks.

 

 

Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8718