internationallove Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 "Citi: resistance for USD/JPY" (2011-01-04) The greenback continued its yesterday’s advance versus Japanese yen reaching 82.27 yen level. Stops were triggered through 82.00 in Asia and 82.20 at the beginning of the European trade. Analysts at Citi note that resistance for the pair USD/JPY will be found at the 55-day MA at 82.60 and the top of the Ichimoku cloud at 82.95. Chart. H4 USD/JPY Post your comments here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5499 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 "Commerzbank: EUR/USD under pressure below 1.3500" (2011-01-04) The single currency strengthened versus US dollar during the last week of 2010 but didn’t manage to break above the 1.3496/1.3500 area limited by the 55-day MA and December maximum resistance. According to technical analysts at Commerzbank, as long as euro keeps trading below this zone, it will remain in bearish hands. The specialists believe that below 1.3500, the pair EUR/USD may drop to the 200-day MA at 1.3085 and the recent minimum at 1.2970. If euro succeeds and overcomes 1.3500, it will aim to 1.3781/86. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Post your comments here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5501 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 "Barclays Capital: USD/CHF will drop below 0.90" (2011-01-04) The greenback rose by one cent versus Swiss franc from the record minimum at 0.9320 hit on January 3 getting above 0.9420. Never the less, currency strategists at Barclays Capital note that the outlook for USD/CHF is the most negative among dollar crosses noting that the pair completed a large bear “flag” in December. The specialists note that resistance levels are found at the previous range lows near 0.9430 and 0.9500 where the sellers will likely increase their efforts. In the next months the greenback is expected to fall to 0.9210 and then go further down below 0.90. Chart. H4 EUR/CHF Post your comments here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5503 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 "Yuan's appreciation will slow down in 2011" (2011-01-04) The world’s leading currency analysts believe that yuan’s strengthening will slow down this year as China’s trying to reduce monetary inflows in order to fight raising inflation. In 2010 Chinese currency for the first time in 17 years climbed above 6.6 yuan per dollar. Since June yuan’s rate gained 3.6%. Specialists at JPMorgan Chase & Co., the most accurate forecaster of yuan’s rate by December 31, 2010, expect yuan to gain 4.6% to 6.3 yuan per dollar. Analysts at ING Groep NV and HSBC Holdings Plc who have made the next most accurate predictions suppose yuan will climb by 3.8% to 6.35 yuan per dollar. Chinese consumer prices rose in November by 5.1%, that’s the biggest advance in 28 months. The country’s GDP added 9.6% in the third quarter from the previous year’s level, after expanding by 10.3% in the second quarter and 11.9% in the first. The People’s Bank of China increased banks’ reserves requirements 6 times last year. In addition, Chinese monetary authorities lifted up on December 25 1-year lending and deposit rates by 25 basis points after lifting borrowing costs for the first time since 2007 in October. Strategists at HSBC note that the Europe’s debt crisis negatively affects demand for the emerging-market assets and weak euro will limit the yuan’s ability to appreciate. According to them, China’s inflation will peak in the first quarter and this will relieve pressure on the central bank to use the yuan for combating inflation. ING’s economists think that to reduce inflation China will impose price controls and use administrative measures. Post your comments here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5505 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 "RBS: Aussie will gain in 2011" (2011-01-05) Analysts at RBS Securities expect Australian dollar to advance in 2011. Such forecast is based on the fact that Aussie is likely to benefit the most from the global economic growth and strong commodity prices. In their view, it may add 3-5% during the first half of the year. In 2010 Australian dollar added 14% versus its US counterpart, while in 2009 its growth was equal to 28%. The specialists note that the accommodative monetary policy around the world stimulates risk appetite positive for Australia’s currency. One more encouraging factors for Aussie may be the speculation of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s potential rate hike by 1 percentage point in 2011. Australian central bank has raised the benchmark interest rate seven times since October 2009 to 4.75%. It’s necessary to note that since the beginning of the year the pair AUD/USD is going down due to the record rainfall that has caused floods across a large area spoiling crops and creating the necessity for the evacuation of towns and closing mines. Chart. H1 AUD/USD Post your comments here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5522 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 "UBS: bearish view on USD/CHF" (2011-01-05) Currency strategists at UBS believe that the greenback’s likely to trade within a downtrend versus Swiss franc. The specialists think that in 2011 currency trade’s going to be extremely volatile. The high volatility will be created by the bright performance of emerging nations and weak growth of the developed economies that will result in the unsteady capital flows and uncertainty over the economic outlook increasing the threat of some policy error. According to UBS, the pair USD/CHF may fall to 0.9301 on its way to 0.9202. Resistance level is found at 0.9734. Chart. H4 USD/CHF Post your comments here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5524 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 "Stiglitz: measures needed to save euro" (2011-01-05) Nobel Prize winner in economics Joseph Stiglitz thinks that the single currency will continue existing only if there will be additional measures conducted in order to ensure its stability in the long term. The laureate proposed solidarity fund. According to the famous economist, stability funds established by euro-region governments can help to ease the position of small indebted euro zone countries only temporarily. As for the larger problem countries such as Spain and Italy, their fiscal situation seems to keep being very uncertain. Stiglitz also underlines that weakening will intensify pressure on euro. Post your comments here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5526 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 "Commerzbank: EUR/USD will find support at 1.3130" (2011-01-05) Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the single currency keeps trading sideways versus the greenback. In their view, the pair EUR/USD may weaken to 1.3130 during the coming sessions. Then euro may find support at 1.3129. The specialists note that technical indicators are more positive and the market remains underpinned by its 200-day MA at 1.3085 and the uptrend at 1.3129. If the European currency manages to rise above 1.3500, it may advance further at least to the 1.3781/86 area and then to 1.4000/30. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Post your comments here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5528 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 "Commerzbank: USD/CHF may rise to 1.0067" (2011-01-06) Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the greenback keeps rebounding from 15-year support line trading versus Swiss franc. USD/CHF climbed to the 0.9684 representing 50% retracement of December decline. According to the specialists, some intraday consolidation seems to be quite likely. Commerzbank sets the target of the pair at 0.9747/74 and above it at 0.9875/0.9905 on the way to December maximum at 1.0067. Analysts at UBS note that they’ll remain cautious until the release of the actual payrolls and the speech of Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday. The strategists draw investors’ attention to the weekly jobless claims that are due today. In their view, dollar may find further support in case fewer than 400K claims are reported. Chart. H4 USD/CHF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 "RBC: forecast for NZD/USD" (2011-01-06) Currency strategists at RBC Capital Markets note that New Zealand’s dollar keeps weakening versus US dollar. In their view, it happens due to the general strength of American currency. The specialists say that investors are going to take profits in all the positions that showed such good results during the holidays and at the end of 2010. According to RBC, now it’s necessary to focus at US non-farm payrolls due on Friday as the analysts are hurrying to increase their estimates for the jobs data after the Automated Data Payroll surged above forecasts adding 297K in December while the economists were looking forward only to 101K advance. Taking into account the recent dynamics of the rate there’s the risk of US dollar’s decline. Initial support is at 0.7540, while the resistance level is found at 0.7600. Chart. H1 NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5535 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 "Commerzbank: euro may fall to $1.20" (2011-01-07) Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the single currency slumped versus the greenback this week. The specialists note that the pair EUR/USD broke down below the symmetrical triangle pattern testing the 200-day MA and November's minimum at 1.2970. As a result, the possibility of euro’s decline to 1.2000 has significantly increased. According to Commerzbank, the next downside target for the pair is found at 1.2795 (61.8% retracement of the move seen in the second half of 2010). Chart. Daily EUR/USD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Currency strategists at Barclays note that the downside correction of the pair USD/JPY has finished, so any decline to the 82.90/83.10 zone should be regarded as a good chance to buy the greenback. US dollar’s bounce from support at 80.95 also shows that investors should be looking forward to further advance of the pair. The specialists expect that US currency will climb at least to 85.25 yen. Chart. H1 USD/JPY Post comments here Barclays: dollar may fall to 85.25 yen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 "ABN Amro Bank: slight gold’s correction" (2011-01-07) Analysts at ABN Amro Bank NV suppose that gold denominated in euro will perform better this year than the one priced in US dollars. In 2010 gold in euro added 39% while in dollar terms the advance was equal to 30%. While both are in a short-term correction phase on the recent improving US labor market data, gold in euro tends to be more steady in case of the negative factorss and is likely to advance faster once the upside momentum regains strength. Gold priced in dollars is forming a big rounding-top – a slowdown of an uptrend that eventually turns into a downtrend, touching its 16-week MA. The metal denominated in euro, on the other hand, is not forming any big top yet and is trading “well above” the 16-week MA that means that prices may increase more. According to the bank, in general gold’s correction won’t take long and the upswing momentum may come back already in the middle of February. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5564 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 European currency fell to 3-month minimum versus US dollar ahead of Italian, Portuguese and Spanish bond auctions next week. Analysts at ANZ National Bank Ltd. note that the prospects of Portugal and Spain to repay their debts seem to be in the centre of market’s attention. In their view, the pair EUR/USD is moving down towards the $1.2950 zone. The situation in Europe keeps being difficult – the estimates of BNP Paribas SA show that Spain and Italy together need to raise 317 billion euro. Borrowing costs for Portugal jumped up on 6-month bill sale for 500 million euro on January 5 with 3.686% yield. All in all, Portugal intends to sell 20 billion euro in bonds to finance its budget. Analysts at Deutsche Bank AG note that it’s no longer certain that the single currency will manage to survive euro zone’s debt crisis in its present form. The specialists warn that European Union policymakers have to move faster to reform the euro region to avoid its falling into another crisis. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 "Barclays Capital: EUR/CHF keeps falling to 1.2150" (2011-01-07) Analysts at Barclays Capital claim that the single currency keeps trading within 2-month downtrend versus Swiss franc. In their view, the pair EUR/CHF still aims to fall down to the Fibonacci extension target at 1.2150. The specialists note that support level at 1.24 is likely to hold the initial bearish attack and give ground for a temporary bounce. Never the less, the general bias is negative and any break below this level increases the risk of euro’s slump to the aforementioned target. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5569 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Australian dollar’s going to show the first weekly decline versus its US counterpart since December 10 as the record rainfall on the continent caused the floods cover an area the size of France and Germany affecting coal mine and rail operations. Analysts at Nomura Holdings Inc. note that flooding will cost the country a lot – 0.4% of GDP. UBS AG forecasts that if heavy rains and flooding continues in February, Queensland coal exports may drop by 30 million metric tons. Australia is the world’s biggest coal exporter when supplies of coking coal to make steel and thermal coal to generate power are combined. The loss in shipments may cost A$6 billion. Specialists at Barclays Capital underline that alternative suppliers of the affected commodities may benefit from the increased demand and higher prices. As a result, Barclays recommends being short on AUD/CAD. Chart. H4 AUD/USD comments here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5571 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 "Societe Generale: euro will outpace dollar in 2011" (2011-01-07) Analysts at Societe Generale SA shared their views on the 2011 currency outlook. US economy is not so close to the recession as it was, so currency wars won’t be as intense this year as they were in 2010. US lawmakers will certainly keep putting pressure on China, but as the situation in the US normalized the tensions will probably ease. Societe Generale strategists note that yuan isn’t undervalued too much. According to them, the biggest concern now is China’s inflation problem. If Chinese monetary authorities are successful in tackling inflation, then China can grow strongly, have a stronger currency and be able to raise rates. It would be better for China to try to appreciate yuan in the first half of the year, believes SocGen. The specialists forecast that in 2011 euro’s going to outperform its American counterpart. The United States are deliberately keeping policy accommodative and the currency weak. The European sovereign credit crisis will come back, probably even in January, but if euro survives, it’ll eventually get stronger. Societe Generale expects the pair EUR/USD to trade at 1.25 in 1-2 month time and end the year at 1.40. The strategists note that during the last few weeks we could see the enormous number of bearish euro bets at the market. Most people think this would be a good year for the dollar, but Societe Generale supposes that US currency will go down for the most of the year as the Fed’s going to stay keen on the monetary stimulus. Chart. Daily EUR/USD comments here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5572 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD" (2011-01-10) Weekly GBP/USD The first trading week on the GBP/USD market finished uncertainly. There was a “high wave” with small black body formed on the candle chart. All trade, however, was inside the Ichimoku Cloud and no attempt to break through its upper border was a success. In addition, the Standard line (4) also created resistance at this level turning horizontally. It’s necessary to note that the uptrend seems to be still actual as the Ichimoku Cloud is positive and the “golden cross” (5) formed by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen keeps supporting the bulls. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD On the daily chart the trade was sideways inside Tenkan-Kijun channel (3, 4). The horizontal Kijun-sen also provided some resistance to the prices’ growth. Never the less, the Turning line (3) turned out to be equally strong and managed to hold the bearish pressure during the whole week that on Friday has to reiterate due to Bernanke’s speech. The downtrend on this timeframe, however, is still in place: the Ichimoku Cloud is descending and the “dead cross” (5) formed in November protects sellers. As a result, it’s most likely that the rate’s dec lining will resume this week. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY" (2011-01-10) Weekly USD/JPY The pair USD/JPY ended last week rather positively. The long white candle broke above the horizontal Turning line (3) and the prices found themselves inside the sideways channel Tenkan-Kijun (3, 4). The Preceding lines (1, 2) also turned sideways. It’s possible to suppose that this week the bulls will also outrun the bearish players that will lead to the further rebound of the prices to the Standard line (4). Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY On the daily chart, as it was expected, the market made a rather sharp correction upwards even breaking through the Ichimoku Cloud. In other words, the resistances of all 4 lines didn’t manage to withstand. As a result, the rebound may continue, especially taking into account Senkou Span A (1) that headed upwards. However, there was a “hangman” formed on the candle chart that was confirmed on Friday by the black “falling star” pattern. Such combination of the candle models may indicate reversal, so the prices may begin declining at the beginning of this week. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Post comments here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5591 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 "SEB: EUR/USD will fall to 1.2710" (2011-01-10) Analysts at SE Banken claim that last week the trade ended very bearish for the pair EUR/USD. The specialists note that there was a downside key-week reversal and a “bearish engulfing” pattern that confirmed that fact that the downtrend resumed. In their view, any advance from Monday's minimum at 1.2860 will be corrective and will bring the rate in the near future to the new minimums in the 1.2710 zone. Currency strategists at Commerzbank also believe that in the coming weeks the single currency will remain under pressure as the euro zone debt crisis is likely to worsen. The economists mentioned the events in the indebted Belgium where there’s no political leader due to the government crisis that lasts already a month. While the greenback has overcome the impact of the discouraging economic data, euro is affected from several directions. Chart. H4 EUR/USD post comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5597 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 "Commerzbank: in the first quarter euro will fall to $1.20" (2011-01-10) The single currency fell last week breaking down through the 200-day MA and the 6-month uptrend support line. Technical analysts at Commerzbank project that the pair EUR/USD will face strong negative pressure. The specialists also note that the European currency has so far broken below the “symmetrical triangle” formation. As a result, the power of bears increased. According to Commerzbank, euro will weaken to 1.2000 in the first quarter of 2011. If it attempts to advance, resistance levels will be found at 1.3020/74 and 1.3165. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Post comments here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5600 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 "Mizuho: USD/JPY range in the 1st quarter – 80-85 yen" (2011-01-10) Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the greenback hovers at a very thin daily Ichimoku Cloud trading versus Japanese yen and the small “spike high” formed on Friday ahead of trend line resistance underlines instability at current levels. According to the bank, it’s necessary to enter small shorts at 83.13/83.40 stopping above 83.75. The greenback’s going to decline to 82.50/82.35 and then to 81.50. The specialists believe that the pair USD/JPY will fluctuate sideways staying in range between 80.00 and 85.00 during the entire January and maybe the whole first quarter of the year. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Post comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5602 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 "BNP Paribas expect USD/CHF to decline" (2011-01-10) Currency strategists at BNP Paribas note that last week the greenback made one of its biggest weekly advances versus Swiss franc of the past year. As a result, there was a weekly bullish snap-back reversal signal, while weekly momentum gained on the bullish weekly divergence. According to the bank, it’s quite likely that 0.9306 will be the major base for the rate. If the pair USD/CHF breaks above resistance at 0.9735 and 0.9915, it will get strengths to rise to 1.0230 and possibly 1.0625 Chart. H4 USD/CHF Post your comments here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5604 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 "US dollar will strengthen in 2011" (2011-01-10) Some analysts whose forecasts were the most accurate by the results second half of 2010 believe that the greenback will be the best performer this year as the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing will stimulate the US economy. According to the economists surveyed by Bloomberg, in 2011 American economy will expand by 2.6%, European – by 1.5%, Japan’s – by 1.3% and Britain’s – by 2%. The investors seem to refocus their attention from the Fed’s plan to print cash to buy $600 billion of Treasuries to the euro zone’s debt crisis, deflation in Japan and UK austerity programs. Wells Fargo & Co., Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. and SJS Markets Ltd. expect US currency to gain versus euro, yen and pound. Specialists at Wells Fargo are looking forward to 5% advance of dollars rate against the single currency and 11% versus yen. In their view, the greenback will be supported by rising interest rates on US bonds. Post your comments here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/5605 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 "Dollar usage as funding currency may contract" (2011-01-12) More and more analysts begin doubting in the carry trade that implies borrowing in the currencies of countries with low interest rates and investing in ones with higher yields. More precisely traders are likely to refuse form the greenback as a funding currency. According to the index provided by UBS, in 2010 this strategy caused its followers 2.5% loss. It happened as US dollar often used for financing the trades strengthened – the Dollar Index gained 4.5% from its 12-month minimum hit on November 4. Just to compare – in 2008 American currency declined only by 0.98% after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Analysts at Credit Agricole CIB note that the United States seems to be much better than other economies. Apart from the nation’s economic growth dollar will gain upward momentum from rising bond yields and falling demand for the greenback as a funding currency. Although stronger currency will pose a threat for American exporters, it’s important for US monetary authorities as it encourages foreign investors to buy the debt that finances the country’s $1.3 trillion budget deficit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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