internationallove Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 "J.P.Morgan recommends avoiding loonie"(2011-08-25) Currency strategists at J.P.Morgan claim that once one is bullish on oil, all he needs is to choose which currencies of oil-producing nations to trade. The specialists warn that it’s necessary to be very cautious with Canadian dollar as its dynamics is strongly correlated with the moves of S&P 500 Index. So does Mexico's peso and Russian ruble. As a result, the best choice for such traders is Norwegian krone. Chart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8457 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 "UBS: forecast for USD/JPY"(2011-08-25) Analysts at UBS claim that Japanese monetary authorities have to wait until the Federal Reserve’s intentions about the QE become clear before conducting any forex interventions. In their view, if the Fed doesn’t signal additional QE, there’s no need to step in the currency market. Otherwise, it may be necessary to wait until US dollar drops lower where it would be easier to make a big push. The specialists left their 1-month forecast for USD/JPY at 77 yen. Chart. H4 USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8459 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 "Feldstein on weak US dollar"(2011-08-25) Martin Feldstein, well-known economics professor in Harvard University, thinks that weak dollar is a really positive factor for US economy as it’s encouraging the nation’s exports and increase domestic demand for the goods produced in America as the import prices rise. Moreover, another positive moment is that the declining dollar isn’t increasing the national debt. In addition, the greenback’s slump didn’t propel the pace of CPI growth. It’s necessary to note, however, that although Feldstein forecasts further declines in dollar’s rate, he says that he isn’t calling for the currency’s depreciation. The thing is that declining dollar affects personal incomes as the households to pay more for imported items. The economist warns that the Fed is running out of monetary tools to stimulate the US economy. Feldstein says that another round of asset purchases accelerate dollar’s fall. According to the data from Bloomberg, the greenback has lost 6.3% this year being the worst performer among the 10 major currencies. USD contracted by 49% since the record maximum in 1985. American exports have climbed 16% this year through June compared with a year ago. The nation’s annual economic growth slowed down from 3.9% at the beginning of 2010 to 1.3% in the second quarter of 2011. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8461 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 "Commerzbank: GBP/USD technical levels"(2011-08-25) British pound didn’t manage to get yesterday above resistance in the $1.6539/47 area and pulled down below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from April to July at $1.6370. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that GBP/USD is poised down to July 21 maximum at $1.6330. If the pair breaks even lower than this level, it will drop to the channel support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $1.6264 and 55-day MA at $1.6224. The specialists claim that if sterling closes today above the 3-month maximum at $1.6617 reached last week, it will once again get chance to climb to $1.6687/1.6745 (200-week MA and April maximum). Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8462# Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 "Wells Fargo: Friday release of US GDP"(2011-08-25) US second quarter GDP is released for the second time on Friday at 4:30 pm (GMT+4). Consensus forecast is that the initial reading will be revised down from of 1.3% to 1.1%. Analysts at Wells Fargo point out that since the last publication of the Q2 growth figures some new data has been released. On the one hand, inventories and net exports were weaker than the government’s initial estimates, so their contribution to GDP will be revised down. On the other hand, the negative effect will likely be offset upward revision in the construction and consumer spending. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8465 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 "Roubini: comments on US labor market data"(2011-08-25) According to the data released today, initial jobless claims in US rose to 417,000 during the week ended on August 20 from 412,000 a week ago, while the economists were looking forward to the decline to 403,000. Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University famous for predicting 2008 global crisis, says that Non-Farm Payrolls may be in August zero or even negative, while in July the number of jobs in the United States rose by 117,000. The NFP data is releases on Friday, September 2, at 4:30 pm (GMT+4). Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8467 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 "Citigroup: world’s economic growth forecast reduced"(2011-08-25) Analysts at Citigroup reduced its global economic growth forecast from 3.4% to 3.1% in 2011 and from 3.7% to 3.2% in 2012. The specialists think that the growth of the developed nations will likely remain sluggish at least until the end of 2012, while the unemployment will keep rising. The situation is aggravated by the abrupt tightening in financial conditions and doubts over scope for monetary and fiscal stimulus needed to help the economies rebound. At the same time, the major economies aren’t, in their view, in the treat of recession. The United States, the euro area, Japan, and the United Kingdom are expected to go through a long period of extremely low interest rates. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8469 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 "The background of Bernanke’s speech"(2011-08-26) All eyes today are on Ben Bernanke’s speech that will take place at 6:00 pm (GMT+4). The market is speculating whether the Federal Reserve’s Chairman signals the third round of quantitative easing or not. Professor Lew Spellman, from the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas at Austin takes a glance back examining how the Fed’s monetary policy has been changing since 2008. Spellman points out that the Federal Reserve’s approaches towards QE1 and QE2 were quite different: QE1 was a defensive step aimed to contain GDP collapse, while QE2, on the contrary, was an offensive measure. It’s difficult to assess the results of QE2 and definitely say whether this program helped the recovery or not. The clear thing is, however, that the inflation expectations have increased – the main argument of those who don’t expect QE3. At the same time, it’s also important to realize what the general approach of Bernanke is – as his colleagues say, the central banker is a man of action: he would rather err doing too much, rather than too little, when dealing with the consequences of financial crisis. Bernanke is also known for criticizing Japanese monetary authorities in 1999: in his view, the Bank of Japan didn’t do enough to fight deflation and encourage economic growth, while it should have kept interest rates low until inflation picked up and buy government bonds. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8470 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 "Jyske Bank: EUR/USD will break the «wedge»"(2011-08-26) Currency strategists at Jyske Bank note that from the beginning of the week EUR/USD remained in range between $1.4350 and $1.5000 ahead of Ben Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech. However, the latest trend on yield spreads, equities and commodities shows that the pair has strong downward potential. That’s why the specialists recommend selling the single currency stopping above $1.4580 and targeting $1.3855. In their view, euro is trading within the “symmetrical wedge” and will break this formation this week. The bank forecasts that if the Fed’s Chairman announces QE3, EUR/USD will break the model to the upside; otherwise there will be a downside breach. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8474 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 "Martin Weale on the prospects of further QE in Britain"(2011-08-26) Martin Weale, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee member, doesn’t think that it’s necessary to expand the central bank’s emergency 200 billion pound ($326 billion) bond-purchase program now. However, the official says that his opinion may change if UK economy significantly weakened and inflation falls below the 2% target level. According to Weale, more QE will be necessary if the nation’s banks become more reluctant to lend, though he doesn’t believe such outcome is very likely. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8476 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 29, 2011 Author Share Posted August 29, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-08-29) Weekly GBP/USD On the weekly chart GBP/USD keeps consolidating above the Standard line (1) which is acting as a support. All lines of the Indicator are horizontal (1, 2, 3 and 4). Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) keep holding the “dead cross” in place (5), though the signal isn’t strong as it was formed above Kumo and only slightly holds the pair from getting higher. The bullish Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4) keeps supporting pound though it has narrowed. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD Last week the prices have made a corrective decline within the general move up. On Wednesday and Thursday the pair went sharply down breaking firstly down through the Turning line (1) and then through the Standard line (2), though on Friday pound managed to push up from the support line and reverse upwards. The new week has begun with the bulls pushing the prices higher: sterling was already successfully brought back above Kijun-sen (2). Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) went horizontally holding the “golden cross in place”. The Preceding lines – Senkou Span A and B also move sideways. The rising Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4) keeps pointing at an uptrend. The pair is likely to consolidate above Kijun (2). Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8480 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 29, 2011 Author Share Posted August 29, 2011 <p> </p> <div> </div> <div> "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-08-29)</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Weekly USD/JPY</div> <div> </div> <div>On the weekly USD/JPY chart the situation didn’t change much. The prices remain in the area of the record minimums, in the narrow range between 76 and 77 yen: on the one hand, the demand for Japanese currency remained high due to the continuing risk aversion and, on the other hand, the risk of further Bank of Japan’s interventions held US currency from falling.</div> <div> </div> <div>US dollar still lacks support, while resistance is provided by the horizontal Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) as well as by the descending Ichimoku Cloud (3). The Turning line (1) and the Standard line (1) still keep the strong “dead cross” in place. </div> <div> </div> <div> </div><div> </div> <div>Chart. Weekly USD/JPY </div> <div> </div> <div>Daily USD/JPY</div> <div> </div> <div>On Friday US dollar went above the Turning line (1) that has turned from support to resistance.</div> <div> </div> <div>All lines of the indicator are horizontal (1, 2, 3 and 4) that means that the market may keep moving sideways.</div> <div> </div> <div>Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) remain in the “dead cross”. The descending Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4) keep holding US currency under pressure.</div> <div> </div> <div> </div><div> </div> <div>Chart. Daily USD/JPY </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8481</div> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 29, 2011 Author Share Posted August 29, 2011 <p> </p> <div> </div> <div>"Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF"(2011-08-29)</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Weekly USD/CHF</div> <div> </div> <div>On the weekly chart the pair USD/CHF continues the advance that it has started at the beginning of August. The greenback is confidently above the Turning line (1) that’s acting as a support and approached the resistance provided by the Standard line (2).</div> <div> </div> <div>At the same time, the general downtrend remains and the pair’s growth still may turn out to be merely a correction. The Ichimoku Cloud remains bearish, though the lines Senkou Span A (3) and B (4) stopped declining.</div> <div> </div> <div> </div><div> </div> <div>Chart. Weekly USD/CHF </div> <div> </div> <div>Daily USD/CHF</div> <div> </div> <div>On the daily chart USD/CHF has tested resistance line of the downtrend from February maximum. The next obstacle on the pair’s way will be the Ichimoku Cloud. </div> <div> </div> <div>The descending Cloud itself (4) has narrowed almost to a point and Senkou Span A seems to get above Senkou Span B, though the distance between the 2 lines is almost zero.</div> <div> </div> <div>The Turning line which went up (1) supports the greenback helping US currency to get higher. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen (2) have formed the “golden cross” (3), though the strength of the signal isn’t very strong as it happened below Kumo. </div> <div> </div> <div>All in all, the bulls have chance to enter the Cloud. It’s necessary to watch the lagging Chinkou Span that has approached the price chart (5).</div> <div> </div> <div> </div><div> </div> <div>Chart. Daily USD/CHF </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8482</div> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 "Citigroup is bullish on USD/CHF and EUR/CHF"(2011-08-30) Technical analysts at Citigroup believe that as the pair USD/CHF managed to close yesterday above the 55-day MA at 0.8089, it will be able to rise to the 200-day MA at 0.8921 climbing to the levels last seen in May. Chart. Daily USD/CHF The specialists also think that the pair EUR/CHF will reach 1.24 after on August 26 it closed above the 55-day MA at 1.1529. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8496 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 "Commerzbank: technical comments on EUR/CHF"(2011-08-30) Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the single currency has broken above 4-month downtrend resistance line at 1.1772 and tested the levels above the 32.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 2010 to 2011. In their view, this means that the pair EUR/CHF has potential for an advance to 1.2346/1.2400 (December 2010 and March 2011 minimums and June 2011 peak). The long-term target for euro is set at 1.2708 (55-week MA). However, in the short run the bank expects the European currency to stall below the psychological resistance at 1.20. In their view, support for the pair is found at 1.1809 (June minimum) and 1.1557 (August 17 maximum). Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8499 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 "UBS: EUR/USD and AUD/USD technical levels"(2011-08-31) Analysts at UBS are bullish on the single currency and Australian dollar versus the greenback. Here’s their technical forecast. EUR/USD Resistance: $1.4578; Target: $1.4697 (June 7 maximum); Support: $1.4328, $1.4259. Chart. Daily EUR/USD AUD/USD Resistance: $1.0786; Target: $1.1007 (late July maximums); Support: $1.0561. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8510 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 "Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD"(2011-08-31) The advance of the single currency versus the greenback stopped at $1.4550 – between July 4 maximum at $1.4577 and July 27 maximum at $1.4535 – and euro eased to $1.4400/50. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that EUR/USD may slide lower, to $1.4316. At the same time, the specialists say that in the longer term the outlook for the pair will remain bullish as long as it’s trading above 2-month support line at $1.4272. If euro breaks down this level, it will be poised down to August minimum at $1.4055. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8512 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 "Standard & Poor's about European economy"(2011-08-31) Standard & Poor's warned yesterday that the risk of double dip recession in the euro area has increased due to slowdown of the region’s economic growth. The rating agency notes that high unemployment and recent slump of equities may affect spending – S&P is going to watch the dynamics of consumer demand in the coming quarters. The specialists still think, however, that Europe will be able to avoid the double dip due to such drivers of growth as demand from emerging markets and the recovery, though sluggish, in corporate capital spending. Euro zone GDP growth slowed from 0.8% in the first 3 months of the year (q/q) to 0.2% in the second quarter casting doubts on the euro area’s prospects over the next 18 months through 2012. In addition, the agency notes that there’s still strong divergence on the European nations’ economic growth. Standard & Poor's lowered the region’s growth forecast from 1.9% to 1.7% this year and from 1.8% to 1.5% in 2012. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8514 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 "WSJ: What Greel default would mean for Europe?"(2011-08-31) Economists at Wall Street Journal note that the yield on Greek 1-year government bills hit 60% yesterday. In their view, the nation’s default seems inevitable and its terms will be extremely brutal for investors with recovery rates possibly even lower than the currently anticipated 50%. It’s very difficult to foresee the consequences in case of Greek default, but the economists believe that they’ll be beyond expectations. According to the Bank for International Settlements, European banks have a total exposure of 94 billion euro to the Greek economy (French institutions account for 40 billion euro, while the German ones – for 24 billion euro). The International Accounting Standards Board is worried that European financial institutions have been fudging their exposure to Greece, so the situation may be actually much dimmer. The IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said that European banks need urgent recapitalization. WSJ points out that the banks should seek private resources at first, but then they are to be granted with public funds if necessary. If the banks get no additional capital, there will be a significant credit contraction derailing economic growth of the core nations of the currency union. As a result, the demand for exports of the peripheral countries will fall causing a downward spiral throughout the single-currency region. The WSJ analysts worry that it may be too late for recapitalization now as investors won’t surely be eager to pump more capital into the banks. In their opinion, such efforts should be taken a year ago. According to WSJ, European authorities face a choice – to rescue banks or to save peripheral European economies – the first option seems to be more costly as until now Greece was supported mainly be pledges of action. Wall Street Journal warns that the tensions between the region’s nations are likely to escalate: the European Financial Stability Facility may be seriously affected by Finland’s insistence to get additional collateral from Greece. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8516 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 "TD Bank: Canada’s economic forecast"(2011-08-31) Analysts at TD Bank reduced Canada’s economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.3% in 2011 and from 2.5% to 2% in 2012. According to the specialists, Canadian economy is very tightly connected with the US one, so if American GDP contracts, the same will happen with Canada’s economy. The bank expects that the United States will avoid recession in the coming quarters, but if it's wrong that would mean serious problems for Canada. According to the data released today, Canada’s GDP contracted by 0.4% on the annual basis 3.6% advance in the first 3 months of 2011. US annual economic growth pace in Q2 was revised downwards from 1.3% to 1%. Сhart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8520 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 "UBS and Deutsche Bank: comments on EUR / CHF"(2011-08-31) UBS analysts believe that despite the current pullback below 1.1700, the single currency will continue to rise against the Swiss franc, if she could use the support at 1.1630 area. If the pair EUR / CHF bounces up from these levels, it can go up to 1.1897, 1.1973, and then to 1.2172. Strategists at Deutsche Bank believe that the euro will not be able to go above 1.25 against the Swiss franc. From their point of view, the factors that have traditionally determined the dynamics of the EUR / CHF - Swiss balance of payments surplus and the debt problems of the euro area - again in force. The bank stressed that if the new European currency close to parity with its Swiss rival, then a natural step the Swiss National Bank will become a large-scale currency intervention. Schedule. Daily EUR / CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8522 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 "Mizuho: risk aversion eased, yen weakened"(2011-09-01) China’s Manufacturing PMI rose from 29-month minimum of 50.7 in July to 50.9 in August. Currency strategists at Mizuho note that investors’ risk aversion has decreased. That made Japanese yen weaken versus the majority of its counterparts. The pair USD/JPY reached week’s maximum at 77.23 yen. The MSCI Asia Pacific index of regional shares is rising during the 6th day in a row. According to the data of Japan’s Ministry of Finance, last week Japanese invested 146.3 billion yen ($1.9 billion) overseas. That’s the most since last September. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8524 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 "Daiwa Securities: Japan can’t conduct interventions frequently"(2011-09-01) According to the government survey of 61 large manufacturers, 63% of respondents are calling for sustained currency market intervention to weaken yen. The participants of the survey see the average rate of USD/JPY in a fiscal year through March 2012 at 81.10 yen and EUR/JPY – at 112.80 yen. Never the less, analysts at Daiwa Securities claim that it’s difficult for Japanese monetary authorities to conduct currency interventions frequently. There are political obstacles as such moves would be criticized by other leading nations. In addition, it’s very hard to reverse the market that keeps regarding yen as a safe haven against the global growth concerns and euro zone’s debt crisis. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8526 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 "Wells Fargo: bullish middle-term forecast for NZD/USD"(2011-09-01) In August New Zealand’s dollar weakened versus its US counterpart falling from the August 1 maximum at 0.8841 to end the month in the 0.8500 area. However, analysts at Wells Fargo are still bullish on NZD/USD in the medium term. Among the positive factors for kiwi the specialists cite recovery in the country's economic activity and higher inflation that increases the possibility of the RBNZ rate hike. The specialists expect New Zealand's dollar to recover paring last month’s decline. In their view, in the first half of 2012 the pair will trade at record highs in the 0.9100 region. Chart. Daily NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8528 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 <p> </p> <div> </div> <div>"BMO Capital expects good NFP data"(2011-09-01)</div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>US August Non-Farm Payrolls data are released tomorrow at 4:30 pm (GMT+4).</div> <div> </div> <div>Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project that the number of jobs in the United States increased in August by 75K after gaining 117K in July. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 9.1%.</div> <div> </div> <div>ADP report showed that the number of employed in American private sector rose by 91K versus 109K in July.</div> <div> </div> <div>The Federal Reserve’s Chairman Ben Bernanke claimed in Jackson Hole that the nation’s economic growth was insufficient to achieve sustained reductions in unemployment.</div> <div> </div> <div>Analysts at BMO Capital believe that the data may surpass the expectations. The specialists advise investors to take risk selling US dollar versus its Canadian counterpart in the short term targeting 0.9520 and stopping at 0.9920.</div> <div> </div> <div> </div><div> </div> <div>Chart. Daily USD/CAD </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div> </div> <div>Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8530</div> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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