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USD/CHF Daily Analytics

06:34 21.02.2018

Recommendation:

 

BUY 0.9410

 

SL 0.9355

 

TP1 0.9510 TP2 0.9590

 

On the daily chart of USD/CHF, bulls are trying to counterattack and trigger the “Shark” pattern. Its 88.6% target is near 0.9775. As there’s a distinct downtrend, we doubt in the pair’s ability to rise to this level, though everything is possible.

 

1519194765-a5903a7f3cf43bc4f33886526fd84

 

On H1, if USD/CHF exits the downtrend channel and breaks above resistance at 0.9410 with the following activation of the “Shark” pattern, the odds of advance to 0.9590 will increase.

 

1519194779-351a015a31e5fdb2fee97b43bc66a

 

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GBP/USD Daily Analytics

06:40 21.02.2018

Recommendation:

 

SELL 1.4080 SL 1.4135 TP1 1.3980 TP2 1.3845 TP3 1.3690

 

SELL 1.3935 SL 1.3990 TP1 1.3845 TP2 1.3690 TP3 1.3555

 

On the daily chart of GBP/USD, the inability of bulls to settle above an important level of 1.4050 points at their weakness. A successful test of the lower border of the short-term uptrend channel will increase the risks of the pair going to 88.6% target of the “Bat”. 

 

1519195148-b6b56ed02b1869ac79ae2067aff9c

 

On H1, GBP/USD has reached the target of the “Wolfe waves” pattern. A break of support at 1.3935 or the recoil down from the upper border of the descending channel will open the way down for bears.

 

1519195162-2cf183d9aa99dd882e50bd88c66a5

 

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EUR/USD Daily Analytics

06:56 21.02.2018

Technical levels: support – 1.2290; resistance – 1.2380.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 1.2290; SL — 1.2270; TP1 — 1.2380; TP2 — 1.2450

Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are entered into the negative area, but there is a strong support on 1.2290.

 

1519196188-5974574d0f06c411e972e24d898d2

 

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GBP/USD Daily analytics

06:58 21.02.2018

Technical levels: support – 1.3980, 1.3880; resistance – 1.4020, 1.4100.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Sell — 1.3970; SL — 1.3990; TP1 — 1.3880; TP2 — 1.3810.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and falling Tenkan-sen; the prices are on the Kijun’s support, but the Bears may breaking down it.

 

1519196188-5838ef800660551113de2aff99712

 

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IS THE EURO’S FALL SO DRAMATIC?

13:14 21.02.2018

The euro started falling since the last Friday, February 16 and of course, it happened not without reasons. There are some factors that are negatively affecting the fiber now. So let’s look at them and conclude how they can affect the EUR/USD pair in the future.

 

First of all, the Euro is under the pressure because of a vote in Germany. Angela Merkel is waiting for the results of the potential coalition partner Social Democrats. Results of the vote will be announced only on March 4. If Angela Merkel is able to form a coalition, the euro will find a support, if not, so not.

Another important event for the European Union and the euro will happen on March 4 as well – the Italian Parliamentary election. Coalition parties cannot agree on the issue whether Italy will be in the European Union or not. If opposition forms the majority in the government, it will shake the stability of the EU and the euro. So in accordance with results of the election, the euro will appreciate or fall.

US dollar’s strengthening causes a further decrease of the euro. Today is the second day when the dollar index is rising after the crucial fall last week to the three-year lows. The increase of US Treasury yields helps the dollar to recover, too. So the more the US dollar strengthens its positions, the more the euro falls.

Today manufacturing PMI and services PMI data put more pressure on the fiber and proved its decline. Both figures appeared less than previous ones and even less than forecasts. The PMI is a leading indicator of the economic growth, so traders highly take it into consideration. So the euro has continued to fall.

 

1519218319-a58849bb9954b93bb9c3f3a050ddf

 

However, the picture is not so dramatic. Despite the fact that Eurozone business growth lost some points in February, it still remains strong and anticipated to return its positions soon. According to the report, the European economy is expanding at the fastest pace in eight years. It means that the economic growth is on a quite good level, that will give reasons to the ECB to raise interest rates.

 

Another fact that can make the future of the euro more positive is the whole picture of the currency movement. If we look at the daily chart, we will see that the position of the euro is not so bad. The pair is almost repeating movements of the end of January – beginning of February. So the EUR/USD pair is moving in the trading channel with a resistance at 1.2520 and a support at 1.2210. Also, we can see the main upward trend since the middle of December 2017.

 

1519218338-ece6c3cfd6736c88dad910dc12d69

 

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EUR/USD Daily Analytics

14:03 21.02.2018

 

1519221722-88908321e31c375d39c278d2e8a17

 

The main trend is still bullish, but the pair is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2275 - 1.2246. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be a moment to have another upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.2332 - 1.2384.

 

1519221722-d6910d69aad71e81d13a6399839f3

 

The market went through the nearest support at 1.2325, so the price is declining. In this case, we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.2275, which could be a departure point for a bullish price movement.

 

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GBP/USD Daily analytics

14:06 21.02.2018

 

1519221722-597ea5673a2599496a9809e848157

 

The price is consolidating along the Moving Averages. The main intraday target is the next support at 1.3835. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be a moment for a bullish price movement towards another resistance at 1.4011 - 1.4066.

 

1519221722-3bfa34d28bdaf05eeb4d176d14daf

 

The pair has been declining since the last "V-Top" pattern formed. It's likely that the market is going to test the nearest support at 1.3875 - 1.3835 in the coming hours.

 

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EUR/USD: "MORNING DOJI STAR"

14:15 21.02.2018

 

1519222451-229e2e09d5131e4d5f5a33d8106f2

 

There's a bullish "Harami" at the last low, so the market is likely going to test the Moving Averages. If a pullback from these lines happens little later on, we could have another decline.

 

1519222451-26b610fd97e5ad5375adb48cf7c0c

 

We've got a "Morning Doji Star", so the pair is likely going to reach the 55 & 89 Moving Averages. If these lines act as resistance, we should keep an eye on the lower "Window" as the next bearish target.

 

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USD/JPY Daily Analytics

14:17 21.02.2018

 

1519222451-77e50e8c11375d6edf9eec6b67212

 

There's a bearish "Engulfing", which has been formed on the upper "Window". So, we're likely going to have a local bearish correction. Anyway, bulls will probably try to reach the next "Window" afterwards.

 

1519222451-f86be2e3820f580548dbf1547954c

 

We've got bearish patterns such a "Tower" and a "Shooting Star". Therefore, the market is likely going to decline in the short term.

 

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USD/JPY: BEARISH "ENGULFING"

14:17 21.02.2018

 

VIcJjnK.png

 

There's a bearish "Engulfing", which has been formed on the upper "Window". So, we're likely going to have a local bearish correction. Anyway, bulls will probably try to reach the next "Window" afterwards.

 

6KpZwgj.png

 

We've got bearish patterns such a "Tower" and a "Shooting Star". Therefore, the market is likely going to decline in the short term.

 

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EUR/USD: "MORNING DOJI STAR"

14:15 21.02.2018

 

mjkmtTg.png

 

There's a bullish "Harami" at the last low, so the market is likely going to test the Moving Averages. If a pullback from these lines happens little later on, we could have another decline.

 

ZgVqJWb.png

 

We've got a "Morning Doji Star", so the pair is likely going to reach the 55 & 89 Moving Averages. If these lines act as resistance, we should keep an eye on the lower "Window" as the next bearish target.

 

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Trading Experiences

 

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The touching story of Daniel who was robbed!

 

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EUR/JPY Daily Analytics

06:21 22.02.2018

Recommendation:

 

SELL 132.25

 

SL 132.80

 

TP1 131.25 TP2 130.45

 

On the daily chart, EUR/JPY is slowly but surely moving 113% target of the “Shark” pattern. It settled below an important support at 132.2 (23.6% of the long-term bullish wave) and formed a bar with a long upper shadow – a sign that bears are serious.  

 

1519280368-8afba167b3e7c15d0d5d28d0f3c7b

 

On H1 of EUR/JPY, sellers managed to reach targets of a triangle. If their rivals fail to return the pair inside this pattern, a pullback from resistance at 132.20-132.30 will be a signal for short positions.

 

1519280384-144c086f9efd0dd7367f2818eb875

 

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USD/JPY Daily Analytics

06:29 22.02.2018

Recommendation:

 

SELL 107.15

 

SL 107.70

 

TP1 106.60 TP2 105.35 TP2 103.20

 

On the daily chart, USD/JPY bulls managed to return the pair to the previous long-term consolidation range of 107.35-115.50. Father fate of the yen will depend on the results of the fight for 107.35. The necessary condition for the downtrend’s resumption is the pair’s decline below support at 106.60.

 

1519280877-3297c54597baddc0779dab87f7356

 

On H1, USD/JPY formed several inside bars. This points at the uncertainty.  To continue the decline bears have to keep the pair out of uptrend channel.  

 

1519280896-1f50b4d918123f905c31c70a9dfda

 

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AUD/USD Daily Analytics

07:08 22.02.2018

Technical levels: support – 0.7770; resistance – 0.7820

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Sell — 0.7820; SL — 0.7840; TP1 — 0.7770; TP2 — 0.7730.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with the falling lines; the Bulls are breaking down the Cloud’s support and going to 2-week lows.

 

1519283277-42a68b4bfa2f0515dfbaa054e9dba

 

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USD/JPY Daily Analytics

07:09 22.02.2018

Technical levels: support – 107.20; resistance – 108.00.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 107.50/60; SL — 107.30; TP1 — 108.00; TP2 — 108.40.

Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with the rising lines; the prices entered inside a Cloud and fixed up above Tenkan-sen.

 

1519283277-3dcc4d3b0e9d38341d309e86e7227

 

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EUR/USD Daily analytics

11:42 22.02.2018

 

1519299639-08edeeeab9d26260dd0f3e6d194d1

 

All the Moving Averages have been broken, so the price is declining. At the same time, there's an opportunity to have a local upward correction towards the nearest resistance at 1.2296 - 1.2332. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, bears will probably try to achieve the next support at 1.2205.

 

1519299638-9e64c0222cc85e5aaae98f0b7601a

 

The price has been declining since the last "Pennant" pattern was broken. It's likely that the pair is going to test the Moving Averages, which could be a departure point for another decline.

 

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GBP/USD Daily Analytics

11:44 22.02.2018

 

1519299639-9fbb1cb9276208055d8860787bc8e

 

The last "V-Top" pattern led to the current decline. However, the pair is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens afterwards, there'll be a moment for another decline.

 

1519299639-e6f7ba89d9529b11e1bec47d4a6f3

 

There's a "V-Bottom" pattern, so the market is likely going to test the Moving Averages. Meanwhile, if we have a pullback from these lines, bears will probably try to reach the next support at 1.3835 - 1.3799.

 

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EUR/USD Daily analytics

11:47 22.02.2018

 

1519299976-babe16cb67331bc7eb8d4e08d576b

 

There's a bullish "Hammer", which hasn't been confirmed yet. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average, which could act as resistance. If so, there'll be an opportunity to have another decline.

 

1519299976-7505a5d2a16283a19122a74245d03

 

We've got a bullish "Harami" at the last low, but confirmation of this pattern isn't enough. So, we could have just a local upward correction towards the Moving Averages in the short term.

 

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USD/JPY Daily Analytics

11:55 22.02.2018

 

1519299976-861a880cca3ce36458ed2eea23066

 

The upper "Window" acted as resistance, so there's an "Engulfing" pattern. In this case, we're likely going to have a bearish correction in the short term. Nevertheless, bulls will probably try to test the "Window" once again afterwards.

 

1519299976-39cfb72b7b0fca0f9d9e964cb742e

 

The price has reached the 55 Moving Average, but there's still no any reversal pattern. So, the pair is likely going to continue moving down in the coming hours in the direction of the next support area.

 

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USD/JPY: "WINDOW" ACTED AS RESISTANCE

11:55 22.02.2018

 

x46QVMz.png

 

The upper "Window" acted as resistance, so there's an "Engulfing" pattern. In this case, we're likely going to have a bearish correction in the short term. Nevertheless, bulls will probably try to test the "Window" once again afterwards.

 

wPtGia5.png

 

The price has reached the 55 Moving Average, but there's still no any reversal pattern. So, the pair is likely going to continue moving down in the coming hours in the direction of the next support area.

 

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EUR/USD: BULLISH "HARAMI"

11:47 22.02.2018

 

80p6UW5.png

 

There's a bullish "Hammer", which hasn't been confirmed yet. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average, which could act as resistance. If so, there'll be an opportunity to have another decline.

 

5ufXEaj.png

 

We've got a bullish "Harami" at the last low, but confirmation of this pattern isn't enough. So, we could have just a local upward correction towards the Moving Averages in the short term.

 

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Trading using economic releases

 

You can snatch a large sum of money trading news. 

 

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The key principle – the future value of the currency is defined based on whether the actual data hits, misses or exceeds consensus forecast. If the actual data doesn’t match the forecast, the currency depreciates. A number that is close to our forecast and if the report exceeds the market’s expectations the currency appreciates.

 

Tips:

 

Focus on the most important news that could produce the greatest effect on the market;

Wait for the publication of the chosen release, and then dive into trade according to the plan;

The market’s reaction lasts from 30 min up to 2 hours;

If your fundamental and Technical analysis, fail to realize, and the market’s reaction to the news doesn’t match your expectation; you should follow the market trend (probably you missed some important details in your analysis.

Don’t rush into trade; wait for really strong signals and their confirmation.

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