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EUR/USD: BEARISH "THREE METHODS" PATTERN

11:51 08.02.2018

 

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There's a bearish "Three Methods" pattern, which has been formed under the Moving Averages. So, the market is likely going to continue moving down in the short term.

 

SketZJI.png

 

The upper "Window" has acted as resistance, so there's a "Shooting Star" pattern. In this case, the pair is likely going to test the nearest support area pretty soon.

 

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USD/JPY Daily Analytics

11:55 08.02.2018

1518090150-b6ce189431f51de8505c057dd7d73

 

The price is testing the Moving Averages, but bulls are likely going to test the upper "Window" in the coming hours. If a pullback from this level happens afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have another decline.

 

1518090150-d0aef7fc9b04e3d9cf051c733ce28

 

There's a bearish "Engulfing", but confirmation of this pattern isn't enough. So, the market is likely going to test the Moving Averages, which could be a departure point for a bullish price movement.

 

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GBP/USD IS HEADING TOWARDS SUPPORT

11:22 08.02.2018

 

The price is testing the 89 Moving Average. The main intraday target is the nearest support at 1.3741. If a pullback from this level happens, we could have an upward price movement towards the 89 Moving Average.

 

aw4NWCX.png

 

There's a "Pennant" pattern, so the market is likely going to achieve the closest support at 1.3804 - 1.3741. However, if a pullback from this area is on the table, bulls will probably try to reach the next resistance at 1.3834 - 1.3895.

 

j5YNyn4.png

 

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BOE MEETING

 

Every month the Bank of England announces the outcome of its meeting. In February, it will do so today February 8 at 14:00 MT time. As no changes in monetary policy are expected, the key will be the minutes containing votes of the Monetary Policy Committee’s members.

 

The system X-X-X shows how many members voted for a rate hike, how many – to cut the rate, and how many – to keep the rate hold. Comparing these three numbers with those of the previous minutes, we can make predictions about the future actions of the regulator. The last vote was in December and all members voted not to change the rate. Back then the pound’s reaction was muted. This time the central bank will also release its quarterly Inflation Report, so GBP can make big moves versus other currencies.

 

Follow this event on the Economic Calendar https://goo.gl/WThCMq

 

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USD/JPY: THERE ISN'T ANY REVERSAL PATTERN

06:25 09.02.2018

 

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The price is consolidating between two "Windows". Also, there's no any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the next support area.

 

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There isn't any reversal pattern, cause all the last candles are bearish. So, the market is likely going to test. In this case, bears will probably try to achieve the nearest support area.

 

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Trading Books

 

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EUR/USD Daily Analytics

05:58 09.02.2018

Technical levels: support – 1.2230; resistance – 1.2350, 1.2400.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 1.2260; SL — 1.2240; TP1 — 1.2340; TP2 — 1.2400

Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but raising Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with horizontal lines; the prices are supported by Senkou Span B and may bounce to Kijun-sen.

 

1518155869-5974574d0f06c411e972e24d898d2

 

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GBP/USD Daily Analytics

05:58 09.02.2018

Technical levels: support – 1.3900; resistance – 1.4050.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 1.3940; SL — 1.3920; TP1 — 1.4050; TP2 — 1.4100.

Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but narrowing channel; the prices are supported by Senkou Span B and returned inside a Cloud.

 

1518155869-5838ef800660551113de2aff99712

 

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EUR/USD Daily Analytics

06:13 09.02.2018

 

1518156651-ecbd5799cd4f5e27b581347abd38c

 

There's a "V-Bottom" pattern, but the price is consolidating. Also, there's a possible developing bearish pattern. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest support 1.2164.

 

1518156651-07f94159faa18d1c144107a15c247

 

Bears faced with support at 1.2222, so the price is likely going to reach the closest resistance at 1.2294. If a pullback from this level happens little later on, the market will probably test the next support at 1.2211 - 1.2194.

 

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GBP/USD Daily Analytics

06:15 09.02.2018

 

1518156651-181757ad4c4e4100db0b20cf20f0e

 

The main trend is still bullish, but there's a "V-Top" pattern. The main intraday target is the next support at 1.3834 - 1.3741. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this area happens, we could have another upward price movement.

 

1518156651-434c3df4660afa0387703360fe30b

 

There's a bearish "Thorn" pattern, so the price is consolidating. It's likely that the pair is going to test the nearest resistance at 1.3944 - 1.3979, which could be a departure point for a bullish price movement.

 

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EUR/USD Daily Analytics

06:20 09.02.2018

 

1518157096-b5a5c0a01634ded33ebed035ece24

 

There's a bearish "Three Methods" pattern, which has been formed under the Moving Averages. In this case, the price is likely going to continue declining.

 

1518157096-991f1e63260a631f64e3b441e5fc8

 

The price is consolidating under the upper "Window". If a pullback from this area happens, we could see a downward price movement towards the next support.

 

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USD/JPY Daily Analytics

06:25 09.02.2018

 

1518157096-224dadba49dde6f988f7bb3b82e8c

 

The price is consolidating between two "Windows". Also, there's no any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the next support area.

 

1518157096-76471f2ecf225ca495cc1f56d3df8

 

There isn't any reversal pattern, cause all the last candles are bearish. So, the market is likely going to test nearest support area.

 

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EUR/USD Daily Analytics

07:11 09.02.2018

Recommendation:

 

SELL 1.2225 SL 1.228 TP1 1.216 TP2 1.2045

 

BUY 1.2295 SL 1.224 TP1 1.237 TP2 1.2475

 

On the daily chart, EUR/USD keeps forming “Spike and reversal with acceleration”. Bears count on the continuation of the decline toward an interim target at 78.6% of the “Bat” pattern. Never the less, the pair is for now above support at 1.2015-1.2045, and bulls are in control of the situation. 

 

1518160159-8afba167b3e7c15d0d5d28d0f3c7b

 

On H1, after having formed a widening wedge EUR/USD went to the 3-week and formed a short-term consolidation range of 1.2225-1.2295.

 

1518160175-cd38927ea0f956dcaeee884bec774

 

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EUR/GBP Daily Anlytics

07:29 09.02.2018

Recommendation:

 

SELL 0.8715

 

SL 0.877 TP1 0.8615

 

TP2 0.8525 TP3 0.8425

 

On the daily chart, EUR/GBP continues its medium-term consolidation in the 0.8700-0.9015 area. A break of its lower border will increase the odds of the pair’s getting to 200% target of AB=CD. On the other hand, advance above the resistance at 0.9015 will help to resume the uptrend.

 

1518161308-bc1ce4ebdd72b71af2881b8edc2b5

 

On H1, EUR/GBP reached 88.6% target of an inverted “Bat”. To continue the decline, bears need to pull the pair below 0.8715.

 

1518161327-311438cdc50bb0f634d8ee27e47a0

 

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WEEKLY REPORT: GBP/USD

11:36 09.02.2018

This week was shaking for the cable. At the beginning of the week, the pound continued the Friday’s downward trend.

 

However, it little changed ahead of the Bank of England’s meeting. Although the BOE kept interest rates unchanged at the level of 0.5%, hawkish sounding statements of the Governor made the pound rise. Mark Carney said that they are returning to targeting inflation at the two-year horizon. That is why they may raise the interest rate earlier than planned before. It caused the rally of the pound, and it could achieve the level of 1.4065 after the last close at 1.3875. However, the candle could not close at that height and fell to close at 1.3900.

 

The bullish trend of GBP could not fix because doubts about the Brexit deal still prevail. In addition, the significant plunge of the Dow Johns Index affected the pound as well.

 

The GBP/USD is moving in a horizontal trading channel between 1.3835 and 1.4000. They are support and resistance for the pair in a short-term. The next support is at 1.3741, resistance at 1.4070.

 

1518176066-19dda06215037e098a5fb4cc55818

 

Next week traders should take into consideration CPI data that will be released on Tuesday, February 13, and Retail Sales announcement on Friday, February 16, both at 11:30 MT time.

 

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WEEKLY FOREX OUTLOOK: FEB. 12 - 16

11:40 12.02.2018

 


 

The spectacular decline of US stocks was the biggest event of last week. Dow Jones experienced a record fall: it lost more than 1,000 points in one day.

 

The US dollar took its chance to recover. Traders fear that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates faster than expected. This may hurt profits of American companies, but boosts demand for the cheap dollar.

 

The USD index managed to return above 90.00 and has some chance for stabilization. Resistance is at 91.00.

 

Investors took profit on their bullish EUR/USD positions, and the pair slid by 1.4%. It has to rise above 1.2345 to resume uptrend. Decline below 1.2220 will open the way down to 1.2125 and 1.2080, although we think that the euro should be more or less stable given the euro area’s strong economy.

 

GBP/USD also corrected down last week. The Bank of England offered the pound a positive boost. It raised the UK economic forecasts and said that interest rates probably needed to rise sooner and faster than it had previously thought. However, the general market selloff affected the pound, and GBP/USD failed to stay above 1.40. Support is at 1.38 and 1.3665. Yet, fundamentals have improved and the pair may try to resume uptrend after some consolidation.

 

Australian and New Zealand dollars suffered because of the market’s risk aversion and the fact that central banks of these nations don’t plan to raise interest rates. Both AUD/USD and NZD/USD recovered by the end of the week, but still closed below the weekly moving averages.  

 

Forex economic calendar for the coming days includes UK inflation figures on Tuesday, and US consumer inflation and retail sales on Wednesday. The flash European GDP figures will always be released in the middle of the week. Australian employment and US PPI will come out on Thursday and the speech of the RBA governor together with British retail sales and the US building permits are awaited on Friday.

 

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USD/JPY: "HIGH WAVE" PATTERN

10:40 12.02.2018

 

KHf38zN.png

 

The price has reached the lower "Window" once again, so we've got a pullback from this area. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the upper "Window" and the Moving Averages.

 

CfG45uS.png

 

There's a "High Wave" pattern, which has been confirmed. So, the pair is likely going to test the Moving Averages, which could be a departure point for another bearish price movement.

 

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FBS Video Lessons

 

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EUR/USD: EURO STARTED TO SSA

06:01 13.02.2018

Technical levels: support – 1.2230, 1.2270; resistance – 1.2350, 1.2400.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 1.2300; SL — 1.2280; TP1 — 1.2400; TP2 — 1.2450

Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud with raising Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with narrowing channel; the prices are supported by Senkou Span B and going to upper border of the Ichimoku Cloud.

 

1518501685-5974574d0f06c411e972e24d898d2

 

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GBP/USD Daily Analytics

06:02 13.02.2018

Technical levels: support – 1.3770; resistance – 1.3870.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Sell — 1.3860/70; SL — 1.3900; TP1 — 1.3770; TP2 — 1.3680.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are entered into negative area.

 

1518501685-5838ef800660551113de2aff99712

 

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XAU/USD Daily analytics

07:19 13.02.2018

Recommendation:

 

SELL $1,3320 SL $1,3470 TP1 $1,3060 TP2 $1,2920 TP3 $1,2730

 

SELL $1,3430 SL $1,3580 TP1 $1,3060 TP2 $1,2920 TP3 $1,2730

 

On the daily chart of XAU/USD, bulls manage to hold off an enemy attack at the $1,306-1,308.50 support. Another test of this area in case of success will increase the possibility of a pullback to $1273 and lower. The condition necessary for the uptrend’s resumption is a convincing break of resistance at $1350 an ounce.

 

1518506259-d8029dd1a750de79fab315e2c8c95

 

On H1, much will depend on bulls’ ability to lead the pair outside of descending channel.

 

1518506275-ec8be01d836e6a0db07525bf3cdc0

 

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USD/CAD Daily Analytics

07:27 13.02.2018

Recommendations:

 

SELL 1.2490 SL 1.2545 TP1 1.239 TP2 1.229 TP3 1.2190

 

BUY 1.2665 SL 1.2610 TP1 1.2765 TP2 1.2895

 

On the daily chart, USD/CAD the inability of bulls to return the pair inside the previous consolidation range of 1.2670-1.2895 was the first signal of their weakness.

 

1518506699-1430b06b52ccdf0a9e951da313446

 

On H1, if USD/CAD breaks below support at 1.2560 and 1.2490, the risks of the pair getting to 88.6% of the junior “Shark” pattern. To continue rising and reach 88.6% target of the senior “Shark” pattern, the pair has to convincingly rise above resistance at 1.2665.

 

1518506725-5c726ce87bf89e31cdcfbd4c37b26

 

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GBP/USD: POUND IN NEGATIVE AREA

06:02 13.02.2018

 

Technical levels: support – 1.3770; resistance – 1.3870.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Sell — 1.3860/70; SL — 1.3900; TP1 — 1.3770; TP2 — 1.3680.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are entered into negative area.

 

TGAlQm2.png

 

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