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USD/JPY Daily analytics

13:11 02.02.2018

 

1517576777-c036a9fbc33bfa9178ec953f5edd6

 

The price has reached the upper "Window", but there's still no any reversal pattern. So, the pair is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for a downward correction.

 

1517576777-e1196b6c376a37b6e137c556748bb

 

We've got a bullish "Three Methods" pattern, which has been confirmed. In this case, the pair is likely going to achieve the upper "Window" in the coming hours.

 

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EUR/USD Daily Analytics

06:05 05.02.2018

Technical levels: support – 1.2425; resistance – 1.2530.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 1.2450/60; SL — 1.2430; TP1 — 1.2530; TP2 — 1.2590

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with horizontal lines; the market is supported by Cloud again and may continue an uptrend.

 

1517810721-5974574d0f06c411e972e24d898d2

 

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GBP/USD Daily Analytics

06:06 05.02.2018

Technical levels: support – 1.4080; resistance – 1.4180, 1.4250.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 1.4130; SL — 1.4110; TP1 — 1.4180; TP2 — 1.4250.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the narrowing channel Tenkan-Kijun; the prices returned into the cloudy area.

 

1517810721-5838ef800660551113de2aff99712

 

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NZD/USD Daily Analytics

07:45 05.02.2018

Recommendations:

 

SELL 0.7280 SL 0.7335 TP1 0.717 TP2 0.708

 

SELL 0.7330 SL 0.7385 TP1 0.723 TP2 0.717 TP3 0.708

 

On the daily chart NZD/USD, bulls’ inability to storm 88.6% resistance from a 4-5 wave meant their weakness. An exit of quotations out of an upward trading channel will strengthen risks of development of correction in the direction of 0.7170 and 0.7080.

 

1517816626-fb9be1d9d65d6402746f6573306cf

 

On the hour chart NZD/USD, pattern “Broadening wedge” is actual. A successful storm of support at 0.7280 or pullbacks with subsequent rebounds from resistances at 0.7310, 0.7330 and 0.7350 will create opportunities to form shorts.

 

1517816666-3696dc2326705fd45dfa7b732beb8

 

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AUD/USD Daily Analytics

07:52 05.02.2018

Recommendations:

 

BUY 0.7975

 

SL 0.7920

 

TP1 0.8075 TP2 0.8125 TP3 0.8215

 

On the daily chart AUD/USD, an exit of the pair out of an upward trading channel and a break of support at 88.6% and 78.6% from the last wave showed a return of initiative to bears. They met an important area of 0.7885-0.7895 convergence, a continuation of a southern campaign is impossible without breaking below it.  

 

1517817030-1db64c049cc9775b27418fd0e6b08

 

On the hour chart, as the pair reached an intermediate target at 127.2% of the pattern “Crab”, the odds of a pullback increased. An update of the February low will allow counting on a realization of 161.8% target.

 

1517817081-ef00342837a633bda01cab6a3fe3e

 

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COMMODITY MARKET: TWO DIFFERENT VIEWS

12:26 05.02.2018

Nowadays, commodities market is a highly discussed issue. The US dollar and prices of commodities are highly correlated. The weakening dollar always supports the rise of the commodity market and emerging market assets. That is why the significant fall of the dollar caused disputes between experts about the future of commodities.

 

The first group “guided” by DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach is looking for the rise of the commodity market, expecting a weaker dollar at the same time

 

J. Gundlach based his opinion on a comparison of total returns of the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index with the S&P 500 over the last several decades. So he concluded that there are points where commodities outperformed stocks, it led to a sharp increase in stocks, and vice versa. Now the S&P GSCI Total Return Index-to-S&P 500 Index ratio is at its lowest point, so it means that we will see a super rise of commodities this year.

 

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Together with Jeffrey Gundlach, analysts at Goldman Sachs are calling for rising position for the next 12 months. Bank of America Merrill Lynch has raised the a-tonne copper price forecast from $7.140 to $7.700. Bloomberg Intelligence commodity strategists compare prospects of commodity market to the bull market of 2002-08. Hedge fund managers believe in strong oil and are building long positions.

 

These experts saw support of their decisions in rising prices of different commodities. For example, copper, palladium, platinum, and gold have grown in the last three months. The investment of assets reached the highest level in four years. Rising prices of crude oil helped analysts to form positive forecasts as well.

 

However, not all of the analysts are so positive about the perspectives of the commodity market.

 

Wells Fargo does not expect the continuation of the dollar fall, it considers the position of the dollar as neutral. The company denies the rise of the commodities prices, anticipating over-supply and range-bound prices at the commodity market for the next 10 years.

 

To sum up, we can say that it is quite difficult to forecast the future of the commodities prices because none of the experts could give enough number of supportive arguments for their positions. The price of the US dollar is volatile now, so we cannot be absolutely sure how it will affect the commodity market.

 

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IMPORTANT WEEK FOR GBP, AUD AND NZD // FOREX OUTLOOK FOR FEB. 5-9

11:03 05.02.2018

 


 

Last week the US dollar index managed to close at the positive territory for the first time since the start of December. USD rallied on Friday on upbeat US jobs data. American wages rose at the fastest pace since 2009. This fueled inflation expectations and made the market price in more rate hikes. As a result, this week the American currency has a chance to get a bit higher or at least to remain supported.

 

USD/JPY returned from 108.30 up to 110.00. If it manages to overcome resistance at 110.45, it may recover to 200-day MA at 111.70.

 

The advance of EUR/USD once again stopped at 1.2500. Support lies at 1.2350 and 1.2250.  German political parties still didn’t manage to form a coalition. Yet, the region’s economy is strong and there will be few events to disturb the euro. It might be a good idea to buy the euro in crosses like EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD and EUR/CAD.

 

GBP/USD was rejected down from 1.4280. Apart from the strong US figures, the pair was hurt by weak data from Britain’s construction sector. At the same time, traders are afraid to act ahead of the Bank of England’s meeting. There’s a spinning top candle on the weekly chart – a sign of the market’s uncertainty. Governor Mark Carney sounded upbeat recently, and some analysts think that the BoE will raise interest rates in May. If the central bank confirms such expectations, GBP.USD will get to 1.4370/1.44. A disappointment will lead the pair down to 1.3975 and 1.3830.

 

Apart from the BoE meeting on Thursday, the economic calendar for this week contains the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australian on Tuesday and the New Zealand’s central bank on Wednesday.

 

As for NZD/USD, it strengthened since the last RBNZ meeting, although the economic data became worse. The pair looks vulnerable for a decline to 0.7240 and 0.7190.

 

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AUD/USD: BEARS ACTED RIGHT OFF THE BAT

07:52 05.02.2018

 

Recommendations:

 

BUY 0.7975

 

SL 0.7920

 

TP1 0.8075 TP2 0.8125 TP3 0.8215

 

On the daily chart AUD/USD, an exit of the pair out of an upward trading channel and a break of support at 88.6% and 78.6% from the last wave showed a return of initiative to bears. They met an important area of 0.7885-0.7895 convergence, a continuation of a southern campaign is impossible without breaking below it.  

 

tbSypCP.png

 

On the hour chart, as the pair reached an intermediate target at 127.2% of the pattern “Crab”, the odds of a pullback increased. An update of the February low will allow counting on a realization of 161.8% target.

 

6jRi5VC.png

 

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FBS Video Lessons

 

In this video Tutorial about the SPREAD. BID AND ASK PRICE. 

The price we pay to buy the pair is called Ask. It is always slightly above the market price. The price, at which we sell the pair on Forex, is called Bid. It is always slightly below the market price.

The difference between these two prices is called spread.

 

Learn more


 

Do not forget to chose your language from the video's subtitles :) 

 

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WHAT IS THE CHANCE THAT THE RBA WILL CHANGE INTEREST RATES?

14:57 05.02.2018

On Tuesday, February 6 at 5:30 MT time, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce interest rates for the first time this year after the break in January. Experts do not expect any changes this time. If we look at statistics, the RBA had not changed interest rates since September 2016.

 

Despite the fact that the economic growth of Australia is firm and the labor market has improved, inflation data does not give reasons to the RBA to change the interest rates. In the fourth quarter CPI rose less than anticipated by 0.1 percentage points and still it is lower than RBA’s 2-3% target.

 

The Australian dollar is quite volatile now. On the daily chart AUD/USD, we can see that moving inside the upward trend, Aussie achieved its highest point at 0.8135 since May 2015. After that, it started falling, when received the support at 38.2 Fibonacci retracements and changed its direction again. Although the RBA is not going to raise the interest rates this time, experts expect upbeat comments. It supports the Aussie.

 

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Traders should take into account that Aussie will be volatile on Tuesday because several important figures will be announced.  Retail sales and trade balance will be published before interest rates at 2:30 MT time.

 

Also, on Friday, February 9 at 2:30 MT time, the RBA will give a more detailed economic outlook, delivering Monetary Policy Statement.

 

Making a conclusion, we can say that although the RBA had not been changing interest rates for a long time, and is not anticipated to do it tomorrow, analysts expect it this year for sure. The growth of the economy and inflation that is supported by the labor market and rising demand for commodities can lead to the increase of interest rates.

 

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EUR/USD Daily Analytics

05:45 06.02.2018

Technical levels: support – 1.2260; resistance – 1.2400.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 1.2400; SL — 1.2420; TP1 — 1.2260; TP2 — 1.2220

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling Senkou Span A; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with falling lines; the prices are entered inside a Cloud and may going to Senkou Span B’s support.

 

1517895913-5974574d0f06c411e972e24d898d2

 

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GBP/USD Daily Analytics

05:46 06.02.2018

Technical levels: support – 1.3900/20; resistance – 1.4100.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 1.3900/20; SL — 1.3880; TP1 — 1.4050; TP2 — 1.4100.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the narrow channel Tenkan-Kijun; the prices are falling down to Senkou Span B’s support.

 

1517895913-5838ef800660551113de2aff99712

 

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XAU/USD Daily analytics

07:08 06.02.2018

Recommendation:

 

SELL $1328

 

SL $1343

 

TP $1306 TP2 $1272 TP3 $1244

 

On the daily chart of XAU/USD, bulls managed to defend support at $1324-1328 an ounce. If bears succeed in another attempt to pulls the prices below this level, the risks of a pullback to $1306 and lower will increase. To continue rally towards 127.2% target of AB=CD, gold would need to rise above January high.

 

1517900850-d8029dd1a750de79fab315e2c8c95

 

On H1, a break of the upper border of an uptrend will increase the odds of the pair going to 88.6% target of the “Shark” pattern. A pullback, on the other hand, will create grounds for the formation of the “Head and Shoulders”.

 

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USD/CAD Daily Analytics

07:30 06.02.2018

Recommendation:

 

BUY 1.2510

 

SL 1.2455

 

TP1 1.261 TP2 1.272 TP3 1.285

 

On the daily chart, USD/CAD bulls managed to rise above the upper border of the uptrend channel. As a result, the odds of an inverted “Shark” pattern with target at 88.6% have substantially increased.

 

1517902154-1430b06b52ccdf0a9e951da313446

 

On H1, the probability of USD/CAD pulling back to support levels at 1.2485-1.2510 and 1.2390-1.2410 increased after the pair reached 113% target of the junior “Shark” pattern. If USD/CAD renews February high, this will create grounds for going to 88.6% target of the senior “Shark” pattern.

 

1517902173-5c726ce87bf89e31cdcfbd4c37b26

 

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BITCOIN Daily Analytics

08:14 06.02.2018

The price of the world’s main cryptocurrency keeps falling. BTC/USD fell from the $11,600 area where it traded at the end of January to the vicinity of $6,000 on Tuesday, February 6.

 

Bitcoin is in a firm downtrend. The double top formed on the chart in December and January, suggests that decline may stretch as low as to $4,300. Daily and weekly MACD indicators signal further downside. In addition, BTC/USD broke yesterday below the 200-day moving average for the first time in more than two years. This line will now act as resistance at $7,900. Bitcoin also went below the trend line connecting the lows of January 17 and February 2 (it’s located in about the same area as the 200-day MA). BTC/USD has to return at least above this area to give bulla a chance to reverse the satiation.

 

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It’s clear that the cryptocurrency market is in desperate need of new monetary inflows. Yet, for now the sentiment seems to be negative. Bitcoin market capitalization declined from $294 billion on January 7 to $139 billion on February 5.

 

Why is Bitcoin falling?

 

Bitcoin’s price is affected by negative news flow. Fears of regulatory prohibitions led to the decline in Asian trading volumes. According to local media, China will reportedly block anyone in the country from accessing websites that offer cryptocurrency trading services or initial coin offerings (ICOs). 

 

Bloomberg reported that the heads of CFTC and the SEC will ask the Congress to consider federal oversight for digital-currency trading platforms. 

 

Many major commercial banks announced that they would ban the use of their credit cards to buy Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. These banks include JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citigroup in the United States and Lloyds bank in the United Kingdom.

 

The market’s risk sentiment in general suffered this weak as world stocks experienced big selloffs.

 

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EUR/USD Daily analytics

10:57 06.02.2018

 

1517914548-7046e831691484ce3cc90956e7ca9

 

The trend is still bullish, but the price is consolidating. The main intraday target is the next resistance at 1.2456 - 1.2500. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the nearest support at 1.2334 - 1.2294.

 

1517914548-9710443662f29575bb7853199acc4

 

The Moving Averages have acted as resistance, so there's a "V-Top" pattern. In this case, the pair is likely going to reach the closest support at 1.2384 - 1.2363 in the short term. Meanwhile, if we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to test the next resistance at 1.2482 - 1.2456.

 

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GBP/USD: "DOUBLE TOP" PATTERN

10:59 06.02.2018

 

1517914548-252fcee1f6743e94e7f65557cd68a

 

There's a "Double Top" pattern, which has been confirmed. The main intraday target is the nearest resistance at 1.4082 - 1.4129. These levels could be a departure point for a decline towards the next support at 1.3895 - 1.3834.

 

1517914548-c1ec340503786e007ccdf71f7b30e

 

Bears faced with support at 1.3944, so the price is consolidating. In this case, bulls are likely going to test the 89 Moving Average in the coming hours. If we see a pullback from this line, there'll be a moment to have a decline towards the nearest support at 1.3944 - 1.3915.

 

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EUR/USD Daily Analytics

11:15 06.02.2018

1517915656-61d7ce030d70c099b7da75d3cd099

 

The 34 Moving Average has acted as support, so there's a "Hammer" pattern, which has been confirmed. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance area in the short term.

 

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The 34 & 55 Moving Averages are acting as resistance. Also, there's a "Harami", but confirmation of this pattern isn't enough. So, we could have a local bearish correction and the following bullish price movement afterwards.

 

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USD/JPY Daily Analytics

11:18 06.02.2018

1517915656-08302abb9b344c0c2e485525d4121

 

The lower "Window" has acted as support once again, so we've got a "High Wave" pattern. So, we're likely going to have an upward correction soon. If a pullback from the Moving Averages happens little later on, we could have another decline.

 

1517915656-0281f8790135be031c4064606b892

 

There's a bearish "Engulfing", so the market is likely going to decline during the day. Nevertheless, bulls will probably try to test the Moving Averages afterwards.

 

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XAU/USD: GOLD ROSE TOO HIGH

07:08 06.02.2018

 

Recommendation:

 

SELL $1328

 

SL $1343

 

TP $1306 TP2 $1272 TP3 $1244

 

On the daily chart of XAU/USD, bulls managed to defend support at $1324-1328 an ounce. If bears succeed in another attempt to pulls the prices below this level, the risks of a pullback to $1306 and lower will increase. To continue rally towards 127.2% target of AB=CD, gold would need to rise above January high.

 

y30AY6e.png

 

On H1, a break of the upper border of an uptrend will increase the odds of the pair going to 88.6% target of the “Shark” pattern. A pullback, on the other hand, will create grounds for the formation of the “Head and Shoulders”.

 

EmvFpYp.png

 

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USD/CAD: BEARS ARE RUNNING AWAY

07:30 06.02.2018

 

Recommendation:

 

BUY 1.2510

 

SL 1.2455

 

TP1 1.261 TP2 1.272 TP3 1.285

 

On the daily chart, USD/CAD bulls managed to rise above the upper border of the uptrend channel. As a result, the odds of an inverted “Shark” pattern with target at 88.6% have substantially increased.

 

sz6eBrz.png

 

On H1, the probability of USD/CAD pulling back to support levels at 1.2485-1.2510 and 1.2390-1.2410 increased after the pair reached 113% target of the junior “Shark” pattern. If USD/CAD renews February high, this will create grounds for going to 88.6% target of the senior “Shark” pattern.

 

HTJm2KG.png

 

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KEY FACTORS FOR TRADING EUR/USD

 

 

To understand which factors affect the EUR/USD, let’s start with a description of the currency pair.

The power of the pair is incredible. The US dollar is the most traded and widely held currency, the euro is the second most popular currency in the world. The EUR/USD covers two main economies: European and American, so it has more than half of the total trading volume in the world on the Forex market.

 

Learn all the Key Factors here https://goo.gl/iMd9UV

 

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We wish you good luck!

 

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