riki143 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 DOES BITCOIN REALLY HAVE A FAIR VALUE? 08:54 23.01.2018 Bitcoin is inflating and deflating from day to day like a bubble. Nowadays there are a lot of questions about Bitcoin and one of them is what its fair value is. Economists and analysts are trying to create their own formulas to count Bitcoin's value. So let’s look how they tried to do it. There are two parameters of a currency's fair value measurement. To measure the fair value, it is needed to identify a store value and an exchange value. Mostly, all economists who believe that Bitcoin has a value, make their calculations based on these two figures. Currency strategist at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch David Woo is one of them. Woo tried to compare Bitcoin to silver as a store of value but failed. The value was not determined. And later analysts of the bank declared that a true value for cryptocurrencies may be impossible to assess. Then Bitcoin also was compared to gold. Nowadays, the total amount of Bitcoin is much less than that of gold. However, real fans of Bitcoin believe that it will surpass gold in total value. There is another approach to this issue. Analyst of Credit Suisse Damien Boey estimated the Bitcoin fair value at $6,000. How did he count? He took into account the size of Bitcoin's network and the yield spread on BBB-rated bonds. So Bitcoin rises as more people use the network. He found out that Bitcoin price has a negative correlation to BBB credit spreads – the difference between the yield on BBB-rated debt. The price of Bitcoin depends on a financial policy of a government as well. In the next approach, economists were taking into account the distributed system of the currency. They gave value to Bitcoin because of its transactional system. But they concluded that it was wrong to assess the value based on convenience of payments because now Bitcoin is rarely used for buying anything. So economists came to the dead end again. However, we should not miss an opinion that Bitcoin does not have any value at all. For example, Richard Turnhill, a strategist for BlackRock Financial, the world largest money manager, world-class investors Warren Buffett from Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and Jamie Dimon from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said that Bitcoin is a bubble that can rise in a short-term, but it will burst anyway. Conclusion When economists start to estimate Bitcoin, they meet 2 main problems. Firstly, Bitcoin is rarely used for buying anything. It is impossible to estimate its exchange value because nowadays transactions include only buying and selling Bitcoin, Bitcoin is not exchanged for anything else because of the permanently changing price. The total number of bitcoin transactions over the past year added up to less than one-tenth of 1 % of total e-commerce transactions. Secondly, considering a store of value, analysts met another problem. They compared cryptocurrency with silver and gold, but if we can hold metals, we cannot hold Bitcoins. Numbers of metals and cryptocurrency are not compared as well. Cryptocurrencies do not have underlying value like metals. Bitcoin cannot be guaranteed by an issuer because there is not any. That is why, we can come to the conclusion that the value of Bitcoin is created by users: as much as people believe in cryptocurrency, as much it increases. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/does-bitcoin-really-have-a-fair-value-6402?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 EUR/USD: "PENNANT" PATTERN 09:35 23.01.2018 The main trend is still bullish, but there's an opportunity to have a bearish correction because of the last "Triple Top" pattern. So, we should keep an eye on the nearest support area at 1.2194 - 1.2164 as the next intraday target. There's a "Pennant" pattern, so the pair is likely going to test the closest support at 1.2164 in the coming hours. If a pullback from this level happens little later on, there'll be a moment to have another bullish price movement. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-pennant-pattern-6403?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 GBP/USD Daily Analytics 09:39 23.01.2018 Bulls faced with resistance at 1.4011, so there's a "V-Top" pattern. The main intraday target is the nearest support at 1.3895 - 1.3834. This area could be a departure point for an upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.3944 - 1.4011. There's a developing bearish correction, so the market is likely going to test the closest support at 1.3834 during the day. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this level is on the table, bulls will probably try to achieve another resistance at 1.4011 - 1.4089. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-usd-developing-bearish-correction-6404?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 THE STABILITY OF THE BOJ POLICY 10:42 23.01.2018 Today is the day of the Bank of Japan meeting. The BOJ announced its Outlook Report. The key point is that the Bank kept its monetary policy unchanged. This meeting showed almost solid consent - eight to one member voted to leave interest rates at the same level of -0.1%. At the same time, the members claimed that quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE) with yield curve control (YCC) program will be continued. The Bank is promising to buy Japanese government bonds so that 10-year JGB yields will remain around 0%. The Bank is going to “continue expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed CPI exceeds 2% and stays above the target in a stable manner”. So the BOJ claims that it is going to continue with the current loose policy. However, there are speculations around this report, investors are expecting policy normalization soon. We can see it on a USD/JPY pair 4-hours chart. Despite the news about the unchanged Japanese monetary policy, USD/JPY is falling, the lowest price from the time of the announcement was 110.63. Technical analysis shows that USD/JPY is dangerously close to the support line from the 2016 low in 110 area. Very close to this area there is 100-week MA. These strong support levels will hold initial selling pressure. On the upside, the main obstacle is at 111.70 (200-day MA, 50-week MA). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/the-stability-of-the-boj-policy-6406?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 EUR/USD Daily Analytics 12:29 23.01.2018 There's an "Engulfing" pattern, which has been formed at the last high. So, the pair is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement. The 55 Moving Average acted as support, so there's a "High Wave" pattern. In this case, we could have a local upward correction. Nevertheless, bears are likely going to test the 89 MA afterwards. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-engulfing-pattern-6407?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 USD/JPY Daily Analytics 12:32 23.01.2018 There's a bearish "Harami", which has been formed on the upper "Window". So, the market is likely going to test the lower "Window" in the short term. The 89 Moving Average has acted as resistance once again, so there's a "Harami" pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue moving down in the coming hours. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd-jpy-bearish-harami-6408?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 EUR/USD Daily Analytics 12:39 23.01.2018 There's a pullback from 4/8 MM Level, so wave [iv] might have been formed. Therefore, we're likely going to have an upward impulse in wave [v] of 5 in the coming days. The main intraday target is 6/8 MM Level. As we can see on the one-hour chart, there's a possible triangle in wave [iv]. If correct, wave [v] is going to begin anytime soon. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-triangle-in-wave-iv-6409?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 EUR/USD: TRIANGLE IN WAVE [iV] 12:39 23.01.2018 There's a pullback from 4/8 MM Level, so wave [iv] might have been formed. Therefore, we're likely going to have an upward impulse in wave [v] of 5 in the coming days. The main intraday target is 6/8 MM Level. As we can see on the one-hour chart, there's a possible triangle in wave [iv]. If correct, wave [v] is going to begin anytime soon. More: https://goo.gl/TqZEf3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 USD/JPY: BEARISH "HARAMI" 12:32 23.01.2018 There's a bearish "Harami", which has been formed on the upper "Window". So, the market is likely going to test the lower "Window" in the short term. The 89 Moving Average has acted as resistance once again, so there's a "Harami" pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue moving down in the coming hours. More: https://goo.gl/59Rb7s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 WHAT IS THE FBS PARTNER PROGRAM? FBS partnership program is a possibility to get guaranteed profit without any risks, by attracting new clients to trade at FBS. Forex broker profit is formed by spreads charged to a client after opening Trading orders. A broker's partner (IB) gets reward from the part of the spread charged to the attracted client's trading. ✔ The goal of the partner is to attract clients to trade at FBS Brokerage Company. ✔ Clients open real accounts of any type, fund them for any amount and start trading. ✔ The partner gets reward for each order executed by his/her attracted client on a daily basis, according to the conditions of partner commission payments. ✔ After commission is credited to the partner account balance, the partner can withdraw it instantly using any of the payment systems available. Open your Partner account with FBS for free https://goo.gl/yMA4Z2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Old ways won't open new doors! Don't be afraid to start over, it's a new chance to rebuild your own future the way you love. Start trading with FBS - Start the journey of profits! https://goo.gl/JUoTVF Always By Your Side Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 EUR/USD Daily Analytics 05:50 24.01.2018 Technical levels: support – 1.2270; resistance – 1.2390. Trade recommendations: Buy — 1.2310/20; SL — 1.2300; TP1 — 1.2390; TP2 — 1.2430 Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are supported by Cloud, Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and a market is ready to go higher. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-euro-reached-new-highs-6422 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 GBP/USD Daily Analytics 05:52 24.01.2018 Technical levels: support – 1.4000; resistance – 1.4070. Trade recommendations: Buy — 1.4000; SL — 1.3880; TP1 — 1.4070; TP2 — 1.5000. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising lines; a market reached new highs over 1.4000. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-usd-strong-bullish-offensive-6423?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 USD/CHF Daily Analytics 06:38 24.01.2018 Recommendation: BUY 0.9665 SL 0.961 TP1 0.973 TP2 0.9775 TP3 0.98 BUY 0.949 SL 0.9435 TP1 0.9555 TP2 0.964 TP3 0.973 On the daily chart, USD/CHF keeps forming the “Bat” pattern with a target of 88.6%. For now, bulls and bears are fighting for 78.6% of the wave XA. If bears manage to conquer it, the decline will continue. On the other hand, rebound from the current support will increase the possibility of a pullback. On H1, USD/CHF there may be a formation of a “Widening wedge”. To do that bulls will need to return the pair to resistance at 0.9665. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd-chf-franc-saw-a-bat%E2%80%9D-6426?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 GBP/USD Daily Analytics 06:47 24.01.2018 Recommendation: BUY 1.3935 SL 1.388 TP1 1.405 TP2 1.415 TP3 1.425 On the daily chart, GBP/USD is trading in an uptrend. The pair reached 161.8% of the AB=CD pattern. This increases the possibility of a pullback. On the other hand, a successful test of resistance at 1.4050 will allow talking about the continuation towards the convergence area of 1.4250-1.2495. On H1, there’s a “Spike and reversal with acceleration pattern”. A break of support at 1.3935 will create grounds for correction to 1.3815 and 1.3745. At these levels, buyers will become more active. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-usd-pound-is-reaching-targets-6427?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 EUR/USD Daily Analytics 12:57 24.01.2018 The main trend is still bullish, so the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2358 - 1.2456. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the nearest support at 1.2322 - 1.2272. There's no any reversal pattern, so the pair is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.2358 - 1.2398 during the day. This area could be a departure point for a bearish correction towards the closest support at 1.2358 - 1.2322. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-no-any-reversal-pattern-6434?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 GBP/USD Daily analytics 12:59 24.01.2018 Bulls faced with resistance at 1.4089. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.4129 - 1.4206 soon. If a pullback from these levels happens little later on, we could have a downward correction. There's a new local high. Meanwhile, if a pullback from the nearest resistance at 1.4129 happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction towards the closest support at 1.4089 - 1.4027. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-usd-new-local-high-6435?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 GBP/USD: POUND IS REACHING TARGETS 06:47 24.01.2018 Recommendation: BUY 1.3935 SL 1.388 TP1 1.405 TP2 1.415 TP3 1.425 On the daily chart, GBP/USD is trading in an uptrend. The pair reached 161.8% of the AB=CD pattern. This increases the possibility of a pullback. On the other hand, a successful test of resistance at 1.4050 will allow talking about the continuation towards the convergence area of 1.4250-1.2495. On H1, there’s a “Spike and reversal with acceleration pattern”. A break of support at 1.3935 will create grounds for correction to 1.3815 and 1.3745. At these levels, buyers will become more active. More: https://goo.gl/vPa1Ey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 EUR/USD Daily Analytics 13:03 24.01.2018 There's no any reversal pattern so far, but we could have a local bearish correction in the coming hours. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to continue moving up afterwards. We've got a bearish "Shooting Star", which hasn't been confirmed yet. In this case, the 55 Moving Average is likely going to act as support. A pullback from this line will be a green light for another bullish rally. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-bearish-shooting-star-6436?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 USD/JPY Daily analytics 13:06 24.01.2018 The price has reached the lower "Window", but there isn't any bullish pattern. So, the market is likely going to continue moving down in the short term. All the last candles are bearish, so the isn't any reversal model. Therefore, the market is likely going to declining towards the next support area. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd-jpy-all-the-last-candles-are-bearish-6437?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 USD/CHF: FRANC SAW A “BAT” 06:38 24.01.2018 Recommendation: BUY 0.9665 SL 0.961 TP1 0.973 TP2 0.9775 TP3 0.98 BUY 0.949 SL 0.9435 TP1 0.9555 TP2 0.964 TP3 0.973 On the daily chart, USD/CHF keeps forming the “Bat” pattern with a target of 88.6%. For now, bulls and bears are fighting for 78.6% of the wave XA. If bears manage to conquer it, the decline will continue. On the other hand, rebound from the current support will increase the possibility of a pullback. On H1, USD/CHF there may be a formation of a “Widening wedge”. To do that bulls will need to return the pair to resistance at 0.9665. More: https://goo.gl/oDktfu Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 Today will be released the Crude Oil Inventories data by The Energy Information Administration's (EIA), which measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of oil. If the crude inventories increase more than expected, crude prices will get down. If the crude inventories increase less than expected, crude prices will get up. If you are an experienced trader, take your opportunities from this weekly event and trade CFDs with FBS https://goo.gl/2HZrz5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 24, 2018 Share Posted January 24, 2018 WOW - FBS gets two new awards in China! We are overwhelmed with happiness to share the great news – we received 2 awards in China. This time, we received “Best Investor Education 2017” by Hexun and """"Best FX IB Program – China 2017"""" by China Forex Technical Analysis Expo and Y2 Forum. The awards choses the best of the best among hundreds of participants every year. FBS is grateful to the members of judging commission for their confidence in choosing us as the best, as well as to our amazing traders who always trust us all over the world. Trading with FBS means trading with the best - Join us Today https://goo.gl/iJgDe7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE ECB MEETING? 08:37 25.01.2018 Today we are waiting for the news from the European Central Bank. The ECB press conference will be held at 15:30 MT time. It is worth to say that last time in December the ECB left its monetary policy unchanged. So let’s see what we can expect from this meeting. Most of the economists suppose that the ECB will not change the monetary policy again because of an obstacle - the continuing quantitative easing that it promised to hold until September 2018. However, we can say that this time the most interesting part of the conference is not interest rates, but comments of the bank President. First of all, Mario Draghi will face a huge number of questions over how fast the central bank is going to change its policy. Secondly, his address and comments will affect the EUR/USD pair. The pair was rising since the beginning of 2017 and recently achieved a new 3-year high. Such growth creates worries for the ECB because continuing rise of the currency is not good for the economy. That is why the ECB should gradually shift its stance to avoid a more destructive move in the future. And it is what economists are waiting from Draghi, they expect him to announce gradual policy changes. Although no one expects immediate changes in the ECB policy, traders will pay a lot of attention to the speech of the President. During the conference, the single currency will be vulnerable. As for numbers, analysts from Danske Bank forecast the fall of the single currency to 1.20 in short-term, but not lower. However, it is expected to surge to 1.28 by the end of the year, if only inflation will grow to 2%. So we can say that the ECB monetary policy will likely stay stable but the conference will affect the EUR/USD pair a lot. Considering future, economists are looking for policy changes in March/April meetings. More forecasts on EUR/USD rate you can find More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/what-to-expect-from-the-ecb-meeting-6451?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted January 25, 2018 Share Posted January 25, 2018 EUR/JPY Daily Analytics 09:21 25.01.2018 Recommendation: SELL 134.95 SL 135.5 TP1 134.3 TP2 133.7 BUY 136.2 SL 135.65 TP 137.2 TP2 138 On the daily chart, EUR/JPY is consolidating in the 135.00-136.40 area. A break of its upper border will increase the odds of advance to 127.2% of AB=CD pattern. The nearest support level is near 134.30. On H1, EUR/JPY is retesting the neckline of “Head and Shoulders”. A break below correction low will allow bears to count on the continuation of a pullback. On the other hand, advance above 136.20 will increase the risks of uptrend’s resumption. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-jpy-who-will-be-the-loser-6452?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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