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EUR/USD Daily Analytics

10:06 08.01.2018

 

1515405910-684a347eeecd09274aa8077cf73f3

 

Bulls faced with resistance at 1.2091, so the price is consolidating. Also, there's a "Double Top" pattern, which has been confirmed. So, the pair is likely going to test the nearest support area at 1.1939 - 1.1934. Meanwhile, if a pullback from these levels happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.2080 - 1.2129.

 

1515405910-51ce7009fceb8bd9568af5ce2d75c

 

The 89 Moving Average is acting as support, but the market is likely going to test the next support at 1.1941. If we have a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to reach another resistance at 1.2059 - 1.2080.

 

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GBP/USD Daily Analytics

10:09 08.01.2018

 

1515405910-42dc200aa7a1660fee56f35184bc2

 

The main trend is still bullish, but the price is consolidating near the 34 Moving Average. Also, there's a bearish "Flag", so the market is likely going to test the closest support at 1.3465. However, if a pullback from this level happens, we could have a bullish price movement towards the next resistance at 1.3595 - 1.3618.

 

1515405911-68e6639ae735b54837b0d2c064729

 

We've got a bearish "Flag" on the one-hour chart. In this case, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.3484 - 1.3465 in the coming hours. This area could be a departure point for an upward price movement in the direction of another resistance at 1.3595 - 1.3612.

 

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[B]EUR/USD Daily Analytics[/b]

06:11 09.01.2018

 

1515478204-29252818f1f094470fbf9dcf5498c

 

There's a pullback from 3/8 MM Level, so wave [iii] might have been formed. Therefore, we could have wave [iv] in the short term inside a possible ending diagonal.

 

1515478204-7e66c0b846a2807740ab803061785

 

The price has been declining since a pullback from 6/8 MM Level happened. It seems like wave iv ended, so there's an opportunity to have bearish wave v of (a) pretty soon.

 

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XAU/USD Daily Analytics

06:49 09.01.2018

Recommendation:

 

BUY $1323 SL $1308 TP1 $1353 TP2 $1380

 

SELL $1314 SL $1329 TP $1284 TP2 $1266 TP3 $1237

 

On the daily chart, bulls managed to return XAU/USD to the uptrend channel. After that the pair formed a “Shakeout-Fakeout” pattern. This increases the risks of the bullish trend’s resumption. To begin with, buyers need to conquer resistance at $1321 an ounce. Their inability to do it will point at their weakness.

 

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On H1, XAU/USD formed a “Spike and ledge” on the base of 1-2-3.

 

1515480532-e12a637cc937326a9c7981d6dfc46

 

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USD/CAD Daily Analytics

06:58 09.01.2018

Recommendation:

 

BUY 1.2445 SL 1.239 TP1 1.2545 TP2 1.267

 

SELL 1.2375 SL 1.242 TP1 1.2275 TP2 1.21

 

On the daily chart, USD/CAD bears managed to lead the pair outside of consolidation range of 1.2670-1.2895. This increases the risks of the downtrend’s resumption. In the short-term traders can use the inside bar. 

 

1515480991-1430b06b52ccdf0a9e951da313446

 

On H1, USD/CAD after playing out the “Widening wedge”. The pair formed a short-term consolidation range at 1.2375-1.2445. It would be wise to use breakout strategies.

 

1515481008-5c726ce87bf89e31cdcfbd4c37b26

 

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AUD/USD Daily Analytics

07:24 09.01.2018

Technical levels: support – 0.7830; resistance – 0.7880

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Sell — 0.7880; SL — 0.7900; TP1 — 0.7830; TP2 — 0.7780.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the narrowing channel of Tenkan-Kijun; the market is under strong main resistance of 0.7880.

 

1515482666-42a68b4bfa2f0515dfbaa054e9dba

 

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USD/JPY: DOLLAR RETURNED TO CLOUD

07:25 09.01.2018

Technical levels: support – 112.50; resistance – 113.00

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 113.10; SL — 112.90; TP1 — 113.80; TP2 — 114.50.

Sell — 112.60; SL — 112.80; TP1 — 112.00; TP2 — 111.00.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span Aand B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but narrowing channel of Tenkan-Kijun; the prices returned to support of the Cloud.

 

1515482666-3dcc4d3b0e9d38341d309e86e7227

 

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GBP/USD Daily Analytics

00:02 10.01.2018

 

1515542264-79a8c2c5d44a45a32bd9faddbcbdb

 

The main trend is still bullish, but the price is consolidating near the 34 Moving Average. It's likely that the market is going to test the nearest resistance at 1.3569 - 1.3505. This area could be a departure point for a decline in the direction of another support at 1.3519 - 1.3493.

 

1515542264-5edb84bb3f70792570d6fc274bc8a

 

The price is consolidating between the Moving Averages. The main intraday target is the nearest resistance at 1.3549 - 1.3569. However, if a pullback from this area forms little later on, there'll be a moment to have a downward price movement towards the next support at 1.3519 - 1.3493.

 

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EUR/USD Daily Analytics

00:05 10.01.2018

 

1515542264-e0132ea197660764a14154dfdc59a

 

The price is testing the 55 Moving Average, which could act as support. If so, the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance area at 1.1934 - 1.1938. Meanwhile, if a pullback from these levels happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have another decline towards the next support at 1.1884 - 1.1875.

 

1515542264-55607f617fafae1703f22290351f3

 

Bears faced with support at 1.1941 - 1.1914, so the price is consolidating. The main intraday target is the 34 Moving Average. If we have a pullback from this line, bears are likely going to reach the closest support at 1.1890 - 1.1871.

 

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USD/JPY Daily Aalytics

00:07 10.01.2018

 

1515542765-ebd76e18ffda95e4efd6c92beecfa

 

There's a "High Wave" on the lower "Window", but this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest Moving Averages in the coming hours.

 

1515542765-baf51268683d0d42d2e5d4036edc4

 

The last bullish "Harami" pattern has been confirmed, so bulls are likely going to test the upper "Window" and all the Moving Averages in the short term. If a pullback from these levels arrives afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have another decline.

 

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EURUSD Daily Analytics

00:10 10.01.2018

 

1515542765-21d1138fcb9db61e5a181aed888a7

 

There's a "Doji", which has been formed on the 55 Moving Average. However, confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak, so we're likely going to have a local correction towards the nearest resistance, which could be a departure point for another decline.

 

1515542765-750f3fd12cdf4c152ea71bc0df368

 

We've got an "Inverted Hammer" and a "Tweezers" patterns, so the market is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average. If this line acts as resistance, bears will probably try to deliver a new local low.

 

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EURUSD Daily Analytics

06:31 10.01.2018

 

1515565771-e67de7098ce38b9a083dc194ad512

 

The current decline could be wave [iv] inside a possible ending diagonal pattern. If correct, we're likely going to have wave [v] of 5 in the short term.

 

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It seems like a bearish impulse in wave (a) ended, so there's an opportunity to have wave (B) in the coming hours. Nevertheless, bears are likely going to deliver wave © of [iv] little later on.

 

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USD/CHF Daily Analytics

07:00 10.01.2018

Recommendation:

 

BUY 0.9915

 

SL 0.986

 

TP 1.0015 TP2 1.0045 TP3 1.026

 

On the daily chart, USD/CHF bears failed to form a “Triangle” pattern and return the pair inside the long-term downtrend. If bulls manage to move the pair towards resistance at 0.9915 and conquer it, the risks of reaching 161.8% of the AB=CD pattern will increase.

 

1515567546-a5903a7f3cf43bc4f33886526fd84

 

On H1, the return of USD/CHF to the previous consolidation range of 0.9840-0.9915 and formation of the patterns “Crab” and “Shakeout-Fakeout” means that bulls have the initiative.

 

1515567561-351a015a31e5fdb2fee97b43bc66a

 

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EUR/USD Daily Analytics

07:14 10.01.2018

Technical levels: support – 1.1900; resistance – 1.2000.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 1.1900; SL — 1.1880; TP1 — 1.2000; TP2 – 1.2060.

Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the strong support of Senkou Span B.

 

1515568482-5974574d0f06c411e972e24d898d2

 

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USD/JPY Daily Analytics

07:15 10.01.2018

Technical levels: support – 112.00; resistance – 112.50

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Sell — 112.30; SL — 112.50; TP1 — 111.00; TP2 — 110.50.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A and B; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with falling lines; the prices returned into a negative area under the Cloud.

 

1515568483-3dcc4d3b0e9d38341d309e86e7227

 

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GBP/USD Daily Analytics

07:16 10.01.2018

Recommendations:

 

BUY 1.3580 SL 1.3525 TP1 1.368 TP2 1.381

 

SELL 1.3510 SL 1.3565 TP1 1.341 TP2 1.332

 

On the daily chart, there’s a short-term consolidation of GBP/USD in the 1.3490-1.3580 range. Bears are trying to return the pair inside the descending trend channel. Bulls count on continuation towards 127.2% target of AB=CD.

 

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On H1, there’s a “Spike and ledge” pattern. The borders of the ledge are close to 1.3510 and 1.3580. A successful test of the upper level will lead to the uptrend’s resumption. A break of the lower border will increase the risks of a pullback.

 

1515568533-2cf183d9aa99dd882e50bd88c66a5

 

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GBP/USD Daily Analytics

07:29 11.01.2018

Technical levels: support – 1.3460; resistance – 1.3530.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 1.3460; SL — 1.3420; TP1 — 1.3530; TP2 — 1.3580.

Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the market entered into cloudy area and will test the support of Senkou Span B.

 

1515655755-5838ef800660551113de2aff99712

 

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AUD/USD Daily Analytics

07:30 11.01.2018

Technical levels: support – 0.7840; resistance – 0.7900

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 0.7840/50; SL — 0.7820; TP1 — 0.7900.

Sell — 0.7900; SL — 0.7920; TP1 — 0.7800; TP2 — 0.7760.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and rising Senkou Span B; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and horizontal lines; the market is under strong resistance of 0.7900.

 

1515655755-42a68b4bfa2f0515dfbaa054e9dba

 

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EUR/JPY Daily Analytics

07:46 11.01.2018

Recommendation:

 

SELL 133.05

 

SL 133.60

 

TP1 132.05 TP2 131.5

 

On the daily chart, EUR/JPY is trading in the “Shakeout-Fakeout” pattern. After reaching 161.8% target of AB=CD the pair returned inside the previous consolidation range of 131.50-134.30. A break of the lower border of an uptrend will increase the risks of correction to the long-term bullish trend.

 

1515656628-8afba167b3e7c15d0d5d28d0f3c7b

 

On H1, a successful test of support at 133.05 will allow bears to trigger the “Shark” pattern and make the pair go to 88.6%.

 

1515656674-144c086f9efd0dd7367f2818eb875

 

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USD/JPY Daily Analytics

07:57 11.01.2018

Recommendation:

 

BUY 112.80

 

SL 112.25

 

TP1 113.70 TP2 115.20

 

On the daily chart, USD/JPY bears managed to lead the pair outside of the uptrend channel. Together with this, reaching 78.6% of the Gartley pattern will allow bulls to seize the initiative. For a start, buyers need to settle above an important level of 111.65 yen. 

 

1515657393-3297c54597baddc0779dab87f7356

 

On H1, USD/JPY bulls are hoping for a “Shakeout-Fakeout” pattern. For that, they need to return the pair to the middle of the previous consolidation range of 112.05-113.65.

 

1515657412-1f50b4d918123f905c31c70a9dfda

 

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EURUSD Daily Analytics

12:34 11.01.2018

 

1515674009-07b2541c589ff5311ce4bcb9ed6e7

 

Bulls faced with resistance at 1.2033, so there's a "V-Top" pattern. The main intraday target is the next support at 1.1884 - 1.1875. If a pullback from this area happens little later on, there'll be a moment to have an upward price movement towards another resistance at 1.1975 - 1.2003.

 

1515674009-82e5e4d66058758c92afb26ef7911

 

All the Moving Averages have been broken, so the price is consolidating. It's likely that the market is going to reach the 89 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, bears will probably try to achieve the nearest support at 1.1890 - 1.1871.

 

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USD/JPY Daily Analytics

12:39 11.01.2018

 

1515674235-3ea6d006b58de7201cee1efd94eb2

 

There's a bearish "Harami" pattern, which has been formed under the nearest resistance area. So, we should keep an eye on the closest support area as an intraday target.

 

1515674235-e3bc0a8d5efdf772d22526a50b0cf

 

The last "Shooting Star" pattern has been confirmed, so the current bullish correction is likely over. In this case, there's an opportunity to have another decline in the direction of the lower "Window".

 

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EURUSD Daily Analytics

12:43 11.01.2018

 

1515674235-d0ad83edac6a5fcc05af61691e268

 

There's a bearish "Harami", which has been formed at the last local high. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the lower "Window" in the short term.

 

1515674235-d1b2d3fa369e8aaecf8b4f8b6ebe6

 

We've got a bullish "Hammer", but this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet. So, it seems like we're going to have just a local correction towards the Moving Averages.

 

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THE UNCERTAINTY OF GOLD IN 2018

14:02 11.01.2018

 

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According to the weekly chart, gold started 2018 with the highest price from the middle of September 2017 and according to the monthly chart, the highest January opening price since 2013.

 

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It gave a reason to a lot of economists and analysts to predict a rise of gold in 2018. Mostly, they consider the current policy and situation. For example, Commerzbank talks about the loose monetary policy of nearly all key Central Banks and political uncertainty, predicting the price of $1,325 an ounce in 2018. The thing is that the political uncertainty was related to the coming U.S. tax reform that was actual at that time, but uncertainties are already passed.    

 

However, the question of the price cannot be based just on the current events. The price depends on a lot of factors and especially on the dollar where the Federal Reserve System plays one of the main roles.

 

Most of the economists, metal analysts take into account the Fed, they expect that actions of the Fed will lead to the strengthening of dollar and gold will lose its position. They suppose that gold will not be needed as a safe haven soon because of the stabilization of risks and tighter monetary policy. Based on this, a lot of economists predict the great fall of gold to $1,200 per ounce, that is really low comparing to the numbers it had at the beginning of the year.

 

To conclude all of the above, the situation with gold in 2018 is unclear. It depends on a lot of factors. The key points that will affect the dollar and gold in pair with it are: how much time it will take for developed economies to normalize interest rates, what is the impact of the tax reform, when inflation will start to increase and to what extent the Fed will tighten its policy.

 

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CRUDE OIL IN 2018: IS IT REALLY A BULLISH TREND?

14:14 11.01.2018

Background

Let’s look at the background of the price dynamics. 

 

The great fall of the oil price happened in 2014. It was caused by the increased oil production in the USA and Canada. American private companies started extracting oil from shale formations in North Dakota. At the same time, Canada started extracting from oil sands that are the world’s third-largest crude oil reserve. That local production caused the shortage of the oil demand from these countries, increased oil supply and led to the fall of the oil price. The important fact is that OPEC, the leader of the oil sphere, refused to cut its oil production letting prices fall. The dynamics you can see on charts below.

 

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Positive trend

Changes began only in 2016 when OPEC and Russia agreed to shorten the oil extract. After that agreement prices started to increase slowly, not without falls, but the great fall never happened after anymore.

 

As we can see from the charts, prices of both the major oil brands - Brent and WTI - are rising from September 2017. Now prices at the highest closing levels since December 2014.

 

This trend gave a reason to analysts and economists to make positive predictions about the future of the prices. Nevertheless, it is important to take into account a lot of factors that had an impact on the price, especially at the end of December 2017: strikes in Iran, the explosion at a major oil pipeline in Libya, scandals in Saudi Arabia. All those events caused the rise of the prices, but there can be factors that can direct the trend in the opposite way in 2018.     

 

What can affect prices in 2018 

However, nothing can be absolutely clear, there are factors that can affect the oil price in 2018. If only supply and demand remain nearly balanced, the price will rise.

 

First of all, OPEC and Russia have to continue their cutting policy that has such a positive impact on the oil price. If only countries decide to change the policy and come back to the same amount of oil they extracted before, the price will fall again.

 

Secondly, some economists suppose that the USA can continue extracting oil because of increasing price that can lead to the fall of price.

 

Speculations are important fact as well. For example, Torbjorn Kjus, chief oil analyst at DNB Bank ASA, assumed that crude can soon see a speculator-driven slump because of a record number of bullish bets at the beginning of 2018.

 

A lot of political events can affect oil price in 2018. For example, cutting of oil extracting in Venezuela, scandals in Saudi Arabia and an unstable political environment in Iran.

 

Summing up all factors that can influence oil price in 2018, we can say that it is complicated to predict the price of crude oil in 2018. Some of the events can lead to the rise of the price, some of them to the fall. However, most of the economists agree on the price from $50 to $70 per barrel. 

 

 oil

 

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