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GBP/USD: BULLISH "FLAG"

12:28 29.08.2017

 

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All the Moving Averages have been broken, so bulls faced resistance at 1.2958. Nevertheless, the price is likely going to continue rising, so we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.2989 - 1.3021 as the next bullish target.

 

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The last bullish "Flag" has been broken, so the price is rising. However, bulls faced with resistance at 1.2958, so the market is likely going to test the closest support at 1.2943, which could be a departure point for another bullish rally.

 

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EUR/USD: DEVELOPING BULLISH IMPULSE

13:35 29.08.2017

 

1504002852-6fcfc7c3498b7cdb89e2b5ef8a2aa

 

The price is still rising, cause there's a triangle in wave [iv], so we've got a developing bullish impulse. The main target for wave [v] of 3 is 8/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for a bearish correction.

 

1504002852-db9dbe17acc63791b4905397ecb21

 

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price is forming an extension in wave (iii) of [v]. 7/8 MM Level is likely going to act as resistance. If so, we could have wave (iv) pretty soon. Nevertheless, bulls are going to deliver wave (v) of [v] afterwards.

 

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USD/JPY: BULLISH "HAMMER"

14:46 29.08.2017

 

1504007122-669bd29f1626480a79d79250c6207

 

The price reached the lower "Window", so we could have any reversal pattern soon. If so, bulls are likely going to test the 21 Moving Average. However, if a pullback from this line happens, we could have the market even lower.

 

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There's a bullish "Hammer", but confirmation of this pattern is quite weak. In this case, the 55 Moving Average is likely going to act as resistance in the coming hours.

 

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EUR/USD: BEARISH "ENGULFING"

14:49 29.08.2017

 

1504007122-2a02f59bc3b0e033f9794934c9d22

 

The price is still rising, but we're likely going to have a reversal pattern soon. If so, there'll be an opportunity to have a local downward correction. Nevertheless, bulls are going to deliver a new high afterwards.

 

1504007122-ebb02349a5932c9b893d483837e4f

 

We've got a bearish "Engulfing", but this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet. So, the pair is likely going to test the nearest support level, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement.

 

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USD/CHF: BULLS CALLED WOLFE FOR HELP

10:10 30.08.2017

 

Recommendation:

BUY 0.9585

SL 0.953

TP1 0.971 TP2 0.974

 

On the daily chart, USD/CHF formed a double bottom. The bar with the long lower wick strengthens the odds of the “Dragon” pattern. However, at the beginning bulls need to conquer resistance at 0.9650 (23.6% of the last long-term descending wave) and at 0.9765.

 

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On H1, USD/CHF reached the targets of the “Widening wedge” pattern. The pair’s currently forming “Wolfe waves” pattern. A break of resistance at 0.9585 will be a signal for opening long positions.

 

1504076956-351a015a31e5fdb2fee97b43bc66a

 

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GBP/USD: BEARS SET A TRAP

10:18 30.08.2017

 

Recommendations:

 

SELL 1.296 SL 1.3015 TP1 1.2845 TP2 1.278

 

SELL 1.3020 SL 1.3075 TP1 1.2915 TP2 1.2845

 

On the daily chart, bulls are making jumbo efforts to return the pair inside the long-term bullish channel. Never the less, their inability to overcome resistance at 1.2962 (38.2% of the wave CD of the 5-0 pattern) and formation of pin bar points at buyers’ weakness.

 

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On H1, the “Shark” pattern is transforming into 5-0. The pullbacks to 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% of the wave CD may be used for opening short positions.

 

1504077486-2cf183d9aa99dd882e50bd88c66a5

 

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EUR/USD: "PENNANT" PATTERN

12:28 30.08.2017

 

1504085238-4127c8415cf1bfd11b83f496e410d

 

There's a "V-Top" pattern, so the price reached the nearest support at 1.1959. However, bears are likely going to test the next support at 1.1909 - 1.1875. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

 

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The 34 Moving Average has acted as support, but we've got a "Pennant" pattern. Therefore, bears are likely going to test the closest support at 1.1909 - 1.1892 soon. If we have a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to achieve resistance at 1.1975 - 1.2003.

 

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GBP/USD: MARKET GOING TO TEST 34 MA

12:30 30.08.2017

 

1504085238-94bf7337dc1fa5446a1d2d810001d

 

All the Moving Averages have been broken, but there's a "V-Top" pattern, so the market is likely going to test the 34 MA. If a pullback from this line happens little later on, bulls will have a green light to catch the next resistance at 1.2959 - 1.2989.

 

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Bears faced support at 1.2916, so the price is consolidating. Meanwhile, there's a "Flag", so the price is likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average in the short term.

 

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EUR/USD: PULLBACK FROM 7/8 MM LEVEL

14:02 30.08.2017

 

1504090911-688c4c58d82c62b96f0e793288dd7

 

There's a pullback from 7/8 MM Level, so wave [v] of 3 may have been formed. In this case, we could have a bearish impulse in wave [a]. The main intraday target is 5/8 MM Level.

 

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We've got a downward impulse in wave (i), so bears are likely going to deliver wave (iii) during the day. If a pullback from 2/8 MM Level happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.

 

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USD/JPY: BEARISH "HARAMI"

14:52 30.08.2017

 

1504093879-3e7d253a62ef2dbc56f1f1b0faf4a

 

The 89 Moving Average has acted as resistance, so we've got a "Shooting Star". If this pattern confirms, there'll be an opportunity to have a local decline. Anyway, bulls are likely going to deliver a new high afterwards.

 

1504093879-b9443af0897bf8cca40b8eb99b58d

 

There's a bearish "Harami", which has been confirmed. So, the pair is likely going to reach the 144 Moving Average soon. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, we should keep an eye on the upper "Window" as an intraday target

 

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EUR/USD: "THREE METHODS" PATTERN

14:56 30.08.2017

 

1504093879-61f1b3b4dcbc3ef73b477b696038a

 

There's a bearish "Harami", which has been confirmed by the last "Three Methods" pattern. So, the market is likely going to continue moving down in the short term.

 

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We've got a bullish "Harami" on the lower "Window". If this pattern confirms, we could have a local upward correction in the direction of the nearest resistance level.

 

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EUR/USD: CORRECTION TO CLOUD

09:41 31.08.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 1.1850, 1.1815; resistance – 1.1920, 1.1960.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 1.1850; SL — 1.1830; TP1 — 1.1920; TP2 – 1.1960.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, narrowing channel of Tenkan-Kijun; the prices are breaking down the support of Kijun-sen and going to Cloud.

 

1504161690-5974574d0f06c411e972e24d898d2

 

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GBP/USD: LOOKING FOR SSB

09:42 31.08.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 1.2900; resistance – 1.2970, 1.3020.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 1.2920; SL — 1.2900; TP1 — 1.2970; TP2 — 1.3020.

Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising Kijun-sen; the Bulls are ready to continue local uptrend up to SSB-levels.

 

1504161690-5838ef800660551113de2aff99712

 

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EUR/JPY: EURO WANTS FREEDOM

10:27 31.08.2017

 

Recommendation: BUY 131.8 SL 131.25 TP1 132.8 TP2 134

 

On the daily chart, EUR/JPY tried to lead the quotes outside of the 127.50-131.30 consolidation range to trigger AB=CD pattern and continue rally towards 134. Never the less, formation of a doji bar points at uncertainty and the possibility of a pullback.

 

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On H1, EUR/JPY formed consolidation range of 131-131.70. The closeness of 113% target of the inverted “Shark” pattern makes bulls careful. Only if the case of its confident test will mean the continuation of the advance.

 

1504164426-b35d7fb0c22de42ad09055593ba2f

 

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USD/JPY: BULLS COUNTERATTACKED

10:37 31.08.2017

 

Recommendations:

 

BUY 109.7 SL 109.15 TP 111.3 TP2 112.15

 

BUY 110.9 SL 110.35 TP1 112.15 TP2 114

 

On the daily chart, bulls managed to move the pair outside of the short-term downtrend and start assailing resistance at 110.52. If they succeed, triggering of the inverted “Shark: pattern with target at 88.6% will become more likely.

 

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On H1, USD/JPY reached the target of the “Widening wedge”. Pullbacks towards 23.6% and 38.2% of the wave CD of the “Shark” pattern, as well as the break of resistance at 110.9 should be used for opening long positions. 

 

1504164866-1f50b4d918123f905c31c70a9dfda

 

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EUR/USD: "PENNANT" LED TO MASSIVE DECLINE

12:20 31.08.2017

 

1504170603-5f392b2b549b8836b4467ce6d8f57

 

Bears faced support at 1.1875, but the market is likely going to continue falling down. So, we should keep an eye on the 55 Moving Average as an intraday target. If a pullback from this line happens, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the nearest resistance at 1.1909 - 1.1959.

 

1504170602-8a0623cc5a2773b8020bc9ca57c9a

 

The last "Pennant" led to a massive decline. The main intraday bearish target is the closest support at 1.1838 - 1.1827. Meanwhile, if we have a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward correction.

 

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GBP/USD: "THORN" PATTERN

12:47 31.08.2017

 

1504170602-f1310a2a557539b23d654959f1234

 

The price is still consolidating near the Moving Averages. It seems like the pair is going to test the nearest support area at 1.2891 - 1.2877. However, if a pullback from these levels arrives later on, there'll be an option to have a bullish price movement towards the closest resistance at 1.2958 - 1.2989.

 

1504170603-69581c40d141cdcd4f2ce6d263081

 

There's a "Thorn" pattern, so the price is consolidating. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bulls will have a green light to achieve another resistance at 1.2942 - 1.2958.

 

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EUR/USD: BEARISH "ENGULFING"

14:07 31.08.2017

 

1504177609-a9e11993079d72a3ffe722e5c459c

 

The last bearish "Harami" has been confirmed by a "Three Methods" pattern, so the price is declining. The next bearish target is the 55 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for an upward correction.

 

1504177609-5ef1bbd18b97b4e677021f50f7190

 

There's a bearish "Engulfing", which has been confirmed enough. So, the market is likely going to test the 89 Moving Average, which could act as support. If a pullback from this line happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another decline.

 

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USD/JPY: BULLISH "THREE METHODS"

14:12 31.08.2017

 

1504177609-41052f18481c9180ca858bf3be0b0

 

Bulls faced the 144 Moving Average, so we've got a "Shooting Star", but this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet. In this case, the price is likely going to test the nearest resistance level in the short term. If any bearish pattern arrives later on, we could have a downward correction.

 

1504177610-e1277b088f091e6b8ba491e32ead6

 

We've got a bullish "Three Methods", so the price is likely going to test the upper "Window". If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction.

 

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EUR/USD: EURO LIKED PIN BARS

10:04 01.09.2017

 

Recommendations:

 

BUY 1.1925 SL 1.187 TP1 1.1995 TP2 1.2085

 

BUY 1.1985 SL 1.193 TP1 1.2085 TP2 1.2185

 

On the daily chart, bears’ failure to rise above 1.1845 points at their weakness. This is confirmed by a pin bar with a long lower wick. Traders should favor buying on the break of resistance aiming for 161.8%, 200% and 224 targets of AB=CD pattern.

 

1504249431-8afba167b3e7c15d0d5d28d0f3c7b

 

On H1, EUR/USD may form 1-2-3 pattern on correction. The break of resistances at 1.1925 and 1.1985 will be a signal for long positions.

 

1504249460-144c086f9efd0dd7367f2818eb875

 

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EUR/GBP: BULLS COUNT ON A WEDGE

10:21 01.09.2017

 

Recommendations:

 

BUY 0.922 SL 0.9165 TP 0.932

 

BUY 0.9235 SL 0.918 TP 0.9335

 

On the daily chart, EUR/GBP is in sustainable uptrend within “Spike and reversal with acceleration”. As long as the pair doesn’t fall to 0.9068, bulls will retain total control of the pair.

 

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On H1, EUR/GBP is forming a “widening wedge” pattern. Return of the pair to point 3 will end the process and allow to form longs. More aggressive traders can use the break of the upper border of the trend channel as a signal for opening long positions.

 

1504250400-2cf183d9aa99dd882e50bd88c66a5

 

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EUR/USD: "V-BOTTOM" PATTERN

11:27 01.09.2017

 

1504254364-bc75e58e3edd0cf3e1beaf89ee538

 

Bears faced with support at 1.1875, so we've got a "V-Bottom" pattern, which pushed the price to the nearest resistance at 1.1909. So, the market is likely going to decline towards the next support at 1.1846. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement in the direction of another resistance at 1.1975 - 1.2003.

 

1504254365-9b4f248bbe16aee0f99eeb2480b56

 

The 34 Moving Average has acted as resistance, so there's a "V-Top" pattern. Therefore, the pair is likely going to decline towards the closest support at 1.1875 - 1.1863. However, if we have a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to reach resistance at 1.1959.

 

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GBP/USD: PAIR GOING TO TEST NEAREST SUPPORT

11:30 01.09.2017

 

1504254364-10cbc5b80424155e4c99b43600700

 

We've got a "V-Bottom" pattern, so the price reached the 89 Moving Average. In this case, we could have an upward price movement towards the nearest support area at 1.2891 - 1.2877. If a pullback from these levels arrives little later on, bulls are likely going to test another resistance at 1.2958 - 1.2989.

 

1504254365-6d1da0ff14607d8758114d31ff922

 

Bulls reached resistance at 1.2942, so there's a "Double Top" pattern. Therefore, the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest support at 1.2891 - 1.2877. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this area happens, we should keep an eye on the closest resistance at 1.2942 - 1.2958 as an intraday target.

 

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NFP: A HOT DAY FOR THE US DOLLAR

11:38 01.09.2017

 

It’s the first Friday of September that means that the United States will release labor market data for August at 15:30 MT time. This week has already been very volatile for EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Will the news release change anything?

 

The risks

Yes, there are no doubts that this release will have a big impact on the market as it’s the last one before the Federal Reserve’s September meeting.

 

ADP employment report, which is the same as NFP, except it’s prepared not by the authorities, but by a private entity, showed that 237K jobs were created in America last month compared to 185K expected. After this publication, many market players started thinking that NFP will come out strong as well. Remember though that ADP and NFP don’t always correlate.

 

History shows that August payrolls tend to disappoint the market. The reasons for such consistent pattern are not quite clear. It may have something to do with seasonal factors: American teachers quit jobs and are re-employed when the new school year starts. August is also a holiday season. Many people who do contract work don't take new assignments. There are also some tricky reasons to believe that wage growth (average hourly earnings) will be lower as well (this deals with the fact how the indicator is counted).  

 

The Fed is closely watching the US economic figures as traders try to predict further actions of the US central bank. The devastating hurricane that ran over Texas diminishes the odds of the Fed’s rate hike this year (although the hurricane won’t affect this month’s NFP). A disappointment in labor data will make the US currency suffer a lot. At the same time, USD bulls will need a reading above the consensus forecast to continue the greenback’s recovery.

 

The forecasts

Here are the forecasts of some well-known banks.

 

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The impact

>200K – very USD-positive

180K-200K – mildly positive for the USD

 150K-180K – mildly negative for the USD

<150 – very USD-negative

 

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EUR/USD: PULLBACK FROM 1/8 MM LEVEL

12:44 01.09.2017

 

1504259001-3e6eeebc05c9659b0d7df4140c784

 

We've got a pullback from 1/8 MM Level, so wave [a] has been ended. However, wave 4 is likely going to be continued. So, if a pullback from 2/8 MM Level happens afterwards, we could have another bearish impulse in wave [c] of 4.

 

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There's a bearish impulse in wave [a]. Also, bulls delivered a small bullish impulse in wave (a), so wave is likely going to take the form of a zigzag. The main intraday target is 4/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for wave [c] of 4.

 

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