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EUR/USD: WILL THE EURO FALL?

10:22 25.08.2017

 

Recommendation:

 

BUY 1.1845 SL 1.179

TP1 1.1945 TP2 1.2

SELL 1.1735

SL 1.179

TP 1.1625 TP2 1.155

 

On the daily chart, EUR/USD keeps forming “Spike and ledge” pattern on the basis of 1-2-3. The break of resistance at 1.1845 will increase the odds of the uptrend’s resumption. On the other hand, successful test of support at 1.1655 will open the way for a correction towards the lower border of the uptrend channel.

 

1503645654-8afba167b3e7c15d0d5d28d0f3c7b

 

On H1 EUR/USD keeps consolidating within the “Widening wedge”. Return of the pair towards 38.2% and 23.6% of the wave 4-5 creates a condition for correction. 

 

1503645681-144c086f9efd0dd7367f2818eb875

 

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EUR/JPY: BULLS ENTER THE CROSSROADS

10:30 25.08.2017

 

recommendation: BUY 129.75 SL 129.2 TP1 130.95 TP2 131.8

 

On the daily chart, EUR/JPY bulls prepare an attack on the horizontal resistance aiming to return the pair inside the previous medium-term rising channel. If they succeed, risks of the bullish trend resumption will significantly rise.

 

1503646123-3297c54597baddc0779dab87f7356

 

On H1, the unsuccessful attempt of bears to make a “Head and Shoulders” pattern points at sellers’ weakness. A break of diagonal resistance will allow the bulls aim for 88.6% and 113% targets of the “Shark” pattern. 

 

1503646157-1f50b4d918123f905c31c70a9dfda

 

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EUR/USD: PRICE STILL CONSOLIDATING

11:19 25.08.2017

 

1503649047-98172b47e7ff4c7f771f6b1aa6f20

 

The price is still consolidating. It seems like wave [iv] is taking the form of a zigzag, so we could have a bearish impulse in wave © of [iv] soon. If a pullback from 7/8 MM Level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another bullish impulse in wave [v] of 3.

 

1503649046-85316dd503b4d908505ff8e622d2f

 

There's a possible double zigzag pattern in wave (B), so we've got a bearish impulse in wave i. Therefore, we're likely going to have wave iii of © soon. In this case, we should keep an eye on -1/8 MM Level as an intraday target.

 

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USD/JPY: 34 MA ACTED AS RESISTANCE ONCE AGAIN

12:06 25.08.2017

 

1503651879-21234833fbdb55aee44f0f714ac05

 

The 34 Moving Average has acted as resistance once again, so there's a bearish "Harami", but this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet. Therefore, the lower "Window" is likely going to act as support, which means we could have a new local high pretty soon.

 

1503651879-23e9b04a96ff6d105591ed793af05

 

The last bearish "Harami" hasn't been confirmed enough, so it seems like we could have just a local decline. In this case, we should keep an eye on the upper "Window" as an intraday bullish target.

 

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EUR/USD: BULLISH "ENGULFING"

12:10 25.08.2017

 

1503651879-55f955bd8ad1a7e13fb859f63a22c

 

The 55 Moving Average has acted as support, so we've got a bullish "Harami" on this line. However, there's also a "Shooting Star" pattern, so the market is likely going to test the nearest support. If a pullback from the 89 MA happens afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

 

1503651879-4268df48707beefdf2b68338e98f6

 

There's support by the 89 Moving Average. Also, we've got a developing bullish "Engulfing". If this pattern confirms, the pair is likely going to test the nearest resistance level, which could be a departure point for a decline.

 

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EUR/USD: EURO MAY GO HIGHER

12:41 25.08.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 1.1780; resistance – 1.1870.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 1.1800; SL — 1.1780; TP1 — 1.1870; TP2 – 1.1920.

Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and rising Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are supported by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the bulls are ready to continue uptrend.

 

1503654078-5974574d0f06c411e972e24d898d2

 

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USD/JPY: DOLLAR REACHED CLOUD’S RESISTANCE

12:42 25.08.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 109.20; resistance – 109.75.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Sell — 109. 50/60; SL — 109.80; TP1 — 109.00; TP2 — 108.60.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are under the pressure of bearish Cloud.

 

1503654078-3dcc4d3b0e9d38341d309e86e7227

 

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US DOLLAR: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 28 - SEPTEMBER 1

15:45 25.08.2017

 

During the past week, the US dollar index (DXY) continued consolidation.

 

Recent releases weren’t very optimistic: manufacturing PMI and home sales both declined. Donald Trump threatened to shut down the US government over funding for a border wallon Wednesday. The market is concerned that the Congress won’t easily raise the debt ceiling and deliver on tax reform.

 

There will be a lot of economic updates in the coming days: the US will release consumer confidence on Tuesday, ADP employment report and preliminary GDP for the second quarter on Wednesday, core PCE price index and personal spending on Thursday and NFP together with ISM manufacturing PMI on Friday. All in all, we’ll get a pretty much new information about America’s economic health. The quality of these statistics will be very important for further direction of the greenback. Another important driver of the market will be the speech of the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen at Jackson Hole on Friday evening (August 25).

 

The greenback remains within the overall downtrend. A close above 93.50 is needed for the DXY to start reversing up. Next resistance levels will be at 94.00 and 94.50. A break below 93.00 will lead to 92.50 and 92.00.

 

1503665122-dcdc5e817cbccf2a99a3edc3ebb67

 

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EUR/USD: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 25 - SEPTEMBER 1

15:48 25.08.2017

 

EUR/USD kept trading near the benchmark line of 200-week MA (1.1760). The euro continued its consolidation and stayed within a narrower range.

 

ECB President Mario Draghi avoided giving any clues on the European Central Bank’s current thinking in his speech in Germany. According to Draghi, central banks must be open-minded on policy innovations as they prepare for future economic developments. Another speech at Jackson Hole on Friday evening will set the tone for the next trading days. Other comments from the ECB policymakers were hawkish and bullish for the euro.

 

European economic data were mostly bright. Euro zone business growth maintained solid pace in August due to a strong manufacturing PMI, although the region’s services PMI declined. German Ifo business climate surprised to the upside. 

 

In the upcoming days, there will be some data releases of medium importance in the euro area. Pay attention to German preliminary CPI on Wednesday and flash consumer inflation figures for the entire euro zone on Thursday: these figures will be crucial for further ECB policy and, consequently, will move the market.

 

EUR/USD remains within the overall uptrend. Only a decline below 1.1650 will mean reversal to the downside. This level will become in focus if the euro slips below 1.1765 and 1.1690. An increase above 1.1845 is needed for the uptrend to continue. In this case, further bullish targets will lie at 1.1900 and 1.2000. 

 

1503665207-ece6c3cfd6736c88dad910dc12d69

 

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GBP/USD: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 25 - SEPTEMBER 1

15:52 25.08.2017

 

GBP/USD made another break to the downside. It fell below the 100-day MA (1.2875) and 1.2850 and hit a near-two-month low.

 

The outlook for the British pound is still clouded by concerns about Brexit risk and economic fundamentals. Data showed revised quarterly growth of 0.3% in the second quarter, while household spending remained weak.

 

The British government is trying to move forward formal Brexit discussions. There was a series of position papers outlining potential compromises over key issues. However, the nation’s future still remains very uncertain.  

 

The UK economic calendar will be light. Monday is a summer bank holiday, so trading volumes will decrease. The most important release – manufacturing PMI – will come out on Friday.

 

Technical picture continues to look bearish. The next Fibonacci level of June-August advance is at 1.2735. Below it, support will be at 1.2650 (200-day MA). Pullbacks to the upside will meet resistance at 1.2850 and 1.2930 ahead of 1.3000.

 

1503665488-19dda06215037e098a5fb4cc55818

 

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USD/JPY: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 25 - SEPTEMBER 1

15:54 25.08.2017

 

USD/JPY consolidated within the downtrend channel drawn from July highs. The pair has now approached the resistance line of this channel and we are soon to see a breakthrough to the either side.

 

Tokyo CPI for August was encouraging: inflation accelerated from 0.2% to 0.5% y/y. The 2% inflation target is still very far away, but some progress has been made.   

 

Next week Japan will release unemployment rates, retail sales, industrial production, consumer confidence and other indicators. Remember though that USD/JPY depends more on the figures out of the United States. The US will release consumer confidence on Tuesday, ADP employment report and preliminary GDP for the second quarter on Wednesday, core PCE price index and personal spending on Thursday and NFP together with ISM manufacturing PMI on Friday.

 

The current resistance line at 109.80 is reinforced by the former support and now resistance line connecting April and June lows. Support is at 108.80. A decline below this level is needed to bring the pair down to 108.00 and 107.50.  

 

1503665613-9979bfdacf87e6ddf67fc3a176475

 

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GBP/USD: BULLS ENTERED INTO CLOUD

09:40 28.08.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 1.2860; resistance – 1.2940.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 1.2890; SL — 1.2870; TP1 — 1.2940; TP2 — 1.2980.

Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising Tenkan-sen; the Bulls entered into the cloudy area and may go to 3W-highs.

 

1503902434-5838ef800660551113de2aff99712

 

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AUD/USD: AUSSIE RETURNED TO SSB

09:41 28.08.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7920; resistance – 0.7950, 0.7990.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 0.7940; SL — 0.7920; TP1 — 0.7990; TP3 — 0.8020.

Reason: narrow bearish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are returned to SSB and breakout its resistance; expected continue of the uptrend.

 

1503902434-42a68b4bfa2f0515dfbaa054e9dba

 

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NZD/USD: BULLS ARE IN STRATEGIC RETREAT

10:16 28.08.2017

 

Recommendation:

 

BUY 0.7335

 

SL 0.727

 

TP1 0.7425 TP2 0.7485 TP3 0.756

 

 

 

On the daily chart, NZD/USD keeps forming a 5-0 pattern. To restore the uptrend, bulls need to conquer resistances at 0.7278, 0.7335 and 0.7386. A pullback to 50% of the wave CD allowed 5-0 to finally form.

 

1503904550-fb9be1d9d65d6402746f6573306cf

 

On H1, there are “Wolfe waves” and a “Shark” patterns. A break of resistance at 0.7335 will be a signal for opening long positions. As the target, one can use 113% of the wave XC.

 

1503904571-3696dc2326705fd45dfa7b732beb8

 

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AUD/USD IS BECOMING STALE ON A LEDGE

10:38 28.08.2017

 

Recommendation:

 

BUY 0.796

 

SL 0.7905

 

TP1 0.802 TP2 0.807

 

On the daily chart, AUD/USD bulls are trying to resume the uptrend. For that they have to conquer resistance at 0.7960 and return the pair to the short-term rising channel. In such circumstances, advance to 200% target of AB=CD has all chances to continue.

 

1503905875-1db64c049cc9775b27418fd0e6b08

 

On H1, AUD/USD keeps forming corrective pattern “Spike and ledge” on the basis of 1-2-3. A break of resistance at 0.7960 will increase the odds of reaching 88.6% and 113% targets of the Shark.

 

1503905896-ef00342837a633bda01cab6a3fe3e

 

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EUR/USD: "V-TOP" PATTERN

11:16 28.08.2017

 

1503908106-c46498ecc0837f26e5a7854a21bfb

 

The last "Pennant" has been broken, so bulls pushed the price higher. Also, we've got a "V-Top" pattern, so the price is consolidating. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.1892 - 1.1875. If a pullback from these levels happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another bullish price movement.

 

1503908106-3c22698a97403f29d93ffd817bf32

 

There's a "V-Top" pattern, which has been confirmed. However, bulls are likely going to test the last local high during the day. If we have a pullback from this level, bears will probably try to achieve the closest support at 1.1892 - 1.1875.

 

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GBP/USD: "EXHAUSTION GAP"

11:17 28.08.2017

 

1503908107-9ac7d076a01396a53408565918832

 

The 55 Moving Average has acted as resistance, so we've got a "V-Top" pattern on this line. Therefore, bears are likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2853 - 1.2831 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, bulls will have a green light to reach the 89 MA.

 

1503908107-94e361211c9b215d3631105b7f6a2

 

There's an "Exhaustion Gap", so we've got a "V-Top" pattern, which led to a decline. However, the last high is likely going to be tested during the day. Meanwhile, we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.2853 - 1.2848 as an intraday target.

 

 

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EUR/USD: TRIANGLE IN WAVE [iV]

13:13 28.08.2017

 

1503915137-c1539c11dd39c4e775839fd713683

 

There's a triangle in wave [iv], so there's a new local high. It seems like wave [v] of 3 is going to be continued. So, if +2/8 MM Level turns out to be broken, we're going to have an updated MM Levels graphing.

 

1503915136-0cadb0d4eff3c2ca8b6660ac24326

 

Wave [iv] has been ended on 1/8 MM Level, so we've got an upward impulse in wave (i). In this case, we could have wave (ii) in the coming hours. If a pullback from 3/8 MM Level happens littel later on, there'll be an opportunity to have wave (iii) of [v].

 

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USD/JPY: "TOWER" PUSHED THE PRICE LOWER

13:41 28.08.2017

 

1503916817-333f36d4f404a868f93076e5b79d6

 

The last "Tower" pattern pushed the price lower. It seems like we're going to have a local correction in the short term. Nevertheless, bears are likely going to reach the lower "Window" afterwards.

 

1503916817-028adbf3c0eab3e85e915d624a111

 

There's a "High Wave" pattern at the last high. However, bulls are likely going to test the 89 Moving Average. If we have a pullback from this line, there'll be an opportunity to have just another decline.

 

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EUR/USD: 34 & 55 MAS ACTED AS SUPPORT

13:44 28.08.2017

 

1503916817-f2e686c0990969f14d3d06cb6d432

 

The 34 & 55 Moving Averages have acted as support, so we've got bullish patterns such a "Harami" and a "Hammer", which both were confirmed. Also, there's a bearish "High Wave", so we could have a local downward correction. Anyway, bulls are likely going to test the nearest resistance area afterwards.

 

1503916817-6b90fee0d31258614bea9d3233413

 

The last "Shooting Star" led to the current bearish correction. However, we've got a bullish "Harami", so we're likely going to have a new local high soon. Meanwhile, if any reversal pattern arrives later on, there'll be an opportunity to have a downward correction.

 

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EUR/USD: EURO REACHED NEW HIGHS

08:46 29.08.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 1.1930, 1.1880; resistance – 1.2080.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Buy — 1.1930; SL — 1.1910; TP1 — 1.2020; TP2 – 1.2070.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising lines; the prices are on the new highs for last three years.

 

1503985592-5974574d0f06c411e972e24d898d2

 

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USD/JPY: DOLLAR ON MAIN SUPPORT

08:47 29.08.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 108.60; resistance – 109.10.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

Sell — 109. 10; SL — 109.30; TP1 — 109.00; TP2 — 108.50.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span B; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the falling lines; the Bears made a new lows, but the market is on the strong daily’s support.

 

1503985592-3dcc4d3b0e9d38341d309e86e7227

 

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GOLD APPROACHED A MILESTONE

10:38 29.08.2017

 

Recommendation:

 

BUY 1295.50

 

SL 1285

 

TP2 1325 TP2 1380

 

On the daily chart, XAU/USD reached 78.6% target of the inverted Gartley pattern and 78.6% of the last long-term descending wave. As a result, the risks of a pullback have increased. On the other hand, if the bulls manage to overcome the resistance at $1321-1325 an ounce, increase towards the target at 200% of the AB=CD pattern will likely continue.

 

1503992221-20c6ebb86722ac92f8a505b7903a9

 

On H1, there’s a “Spike and reversal with acceleration” pattern. XAU/USD is now at the spike stage. To change the trend, bears need to move the prices below $1285.

 

1503992249-e12a637cc937326a9c7981d6dfc46

 

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USD/CAD: BEARS WANT MORE

10:50 29.08.2017

 

Recommendations:

 

SELL 1.2450 SL 1.2505 TP 1.2300 TP2 1.2050

 

SELL 1.2595 SL 1.2650 TP1 1.2495 TP2 1.2300

 

On the daily chart, USD/CAD approached multiyear minimum. If it goes below it, AB=CD with 200% target will be triggered. We can’t doubt in the force of the downtrend, so there’s sense to use the pullbacks for selling.

 

1503992985-1430b06b52ccdf0a9e951da313446

 

On H1, to resume the downtrend bears need to go below 1.2450. A signal for selling will be bulls’ inability to overcome 1.2595.

 

1503992997-5c726ce87bf89e31cdcfbd4c37b26

 

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EUR/USD: BULLS WENT THROUGH RESISTANCE

12:25 29.08.2017

 

1503998653-551245efe61165bfc96d20b082fee

 

Bulls went through resistance at 1.1975 - 1.2003, but the price faced with another resistance at 1.2042. Anyway, the market is likely going to continue moving up, so we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.2080 - 1.2123 as a bullish target. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction.

 

1503998653-9f819cb242c94add39529df7c44d6

 

There's resistance at 1.2042, so the market is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2003. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this level happens, bulls will have a green light to catch another resistance at 1.2042 - 1.2080.

 

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