internationallove Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 "GBP/USD: forecasts from major banks"(2011-07-15) GBP/USD: forecasts from major banks Data from Bloomberg Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7982 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 "USD/JPY: forecasts from major banks"(2011-07-15) USD/JPY: forecasts from major banks Data from Bloomberg Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7983 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 "EUR/JPY: forecasts from major banks"(2011-07-15) EUR/JPY: forecasts from major banks Data from Bloomberg Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7984 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 "Wells Fargo: medium-term outlook for EUR/USD"(2011-07-15) One more medium-term forecast from analysts at Wells Fargo. In their view, the single currency will fall into the steady weakening pattern versus the greenback. As the main factors generating negative pressure on euro’s rate the specialists cite euro zone’s slow economic growth (as one may see from the leading indicators) and the increasing likelihood of ECB pausing its monetary tightening. Wells Fargo expects the pair EUR/USD to stay in range between $1.4100 and $1.4200 during the coming 3 months, then to drop to $1.4000 in the last quarter and slide to $1.3500 by the middle of the next year and to $1.3000 by the end of 2012. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7987 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 "HSBC, Barclays Capital: comments on GBP/USD and EUR/GBP"(2011-07-15) Analysts at HSBC note that the rate of British currently is currently determined more by the dynamics of euro and US dollar, rather than be the factors specifically related to sterling. In their view, pound could gain independence in trading only if UK economic outlook changes either strongly improving or dramatically deteriorating. Until that happens GBP is going to find itself trapped between a rock and a hard place. All in all, HSBC sees the prospects of British economy and currency as rather pessimistic. Strategists at Barclays Capital note that the GBP/USD may be in a bear trap. The pattern will confirm if it closes today above $1.6140. As for EUR/GBP, the bank claims that after jumping from support in the 0.8745/40 zone it may be on its way up to 0.90. If euro drops below 0.8740, it will revisit May base in the 0.8610 region. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Chart. H4 EUR/GBP Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7989 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 "SocGen, UBS: the risk of euro’s collapse can’t be ruled out"(2011-07-15) Economists at Societe Generale and UBS are very pessimistic on the future of the euro area: the former advise investors to buy insurance against the collapse of the single currency, while the latter specify their recommendation say that Danish krone may be used for protection as the situation in the euro zone tends to worsen. According to UBS, as the European crisis escalates, Danmark grows more and more likely to send the peg of its national currency to euro. After suffering from some volatility in the short-term, krone will later strengthen versus other Scandinavian currencies and euro. The specialists claim that one shouldn’t lose time and has to hurry and hedge it money as the pair EUR/USD has mercifully returned above $1.40. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 "Nomura: EUR/CHF has potential for further decline"(2011-07-15) Strategists at Nomura Securities believe that in the current situation of high uncertainty about when the European leaders will come up with a solution of the debt crisis investors should avoid the single currency. The specialists warn that it may take weeks for some developments in dealing with the current problems of the indebted euro zone’s nations. Nomura notes that EUR/USD is a very liquid instrument. For a long time the pair corresponded to the ups and downs in risk premiums on sovereign bonds. Since February, however, this correlation has become not that clear as the single currency gained versus the greenback on the rates differential between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. Now the risk premium on euro has once again begun increasing, but the state of things in the region has significantly deteriorated. As a result, the economists draw a conclusion that EUR/USD responds to sovereign risk only when it triggers systemic risk like it’s happening now. That’s why Nomura recommends trading not EUR/USD, but EUR/CHF regarding short positions on this pair as a sure gain as this cross has been very closely correlated with measures of systemic risk in the monetary union. So, the bank recommends being bearish on euro versus franc even though the pair’s already trading at the record minimums. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7993 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-07-18) Weekly GBP/USD Many experts note that sterling is currently quite vulnerable to the external factors. In particular, the dynamics of the British currency depends on the situation in the euro area and the United States and the rates of their currencies. This, however, doesn’t reduce the necessity of using the instruments of technical analysis. Last week the trading of GBP/USD was once again quite volatile – there was a candle with long lower shadow. The bulls managed to gain – this was as a large extent due to the support provided by the rising Ichimoku Cloud. On the weekly chart, as it was expected, Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) formed the “dead cross” (2). Both the Turning (1) and the Standard (2) lines provide resistance for pound. It’s necessary to note that Kumo is getting narrower that means that the bulls are gradually losing their powers. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD As we had projected in our last forecast, sterling managed to climb to the resistance line connecting May and June highs. On Wednesday the prices showed strong advance, then reached on Thursday the levels above the Standard line (1). Never the less, the bullish relief was short-lived – already on Friday the pair tested levels under Kijun (1), while this week the trade has started below this line. Tenkan-sen (2) and Kijun-sen (1) are still holding in place the “dead cross” formed below the Ichimoku Cloud – the bearish factor. The Cloud itself keeps going down that also isn’t very optimistic. As a result, the outlook for this week seems to be more negative. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7997 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-07-18) Weekly USD/JPY Last week bears have seized the market – the pair USD/JPY went down losing almost 150 pips. Dollar declined due to the fundamental factors as investors’ risk sentiment worsened and the demand for yen surged. Tenkan-sen (2) and Kijun-sen (1) have formed the “dead cross”. The signal is strong as it happened above Kumo (3). The prices have dropped below the Turning line (2) that is now together with the Standard line (2) acting as a resistance. The Ichimoku Cloud narrowed but still is keeping the pair under pressure. At the same Kijun, characterized the longer-term trend is directed sideways that allows us to speak about the possibility of consolidation of the pair’s rate unless new negative data strengthen yen. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY On the daily chart one may see that the trading range of the greenback has shifted down from 80.00/81.00 to 78.60/79.60. The bulls didn’t manage to enjoy the “golden cross” formed last week for long – Tenkan-sen (1) reversed down and merged with the longer-term Kijun (2). After that the Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) turned horizontal. Now these moving averaged will provide resistance for the pair. At the same time, the Ichimoku Cloud isn’t wide and all lines of the Indicator are directed horizontally (1, 2 and 3) that means that dollar’s rate may consolidate. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF"(2011-07-18) Weekly USD/CHF Last week the consolidation of the pair USD/CHF between 0.8275 and 0.8550 ceased and returned below 0.8100 renewing the historical minimums. Despite the negative factors, Kijun-sen (2) and Senkou Span B (3) are directed horizontally, so it’s possible to concede the possibility of the rate’s consolidation. The Turning line (2) and the Standard line (1) still provide resistance for the pair. Chart. Weekly USD/CHF Daily USD/CHF On the daily chart the prices were constantly moving lower. The expected intersection of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen didn’t happen – the Turning line remained below the Standard line repeating its curves (1, 2). All lines of the Indicator are directed horizontally (1, 2, 3 and 4) that indicates at potential consolidation. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7999 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 "Commerzbank: negative outlook for EUR/USD"(2011-07-18) Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that though the single currency has rebounded last week versus the greenback from the 200-day MA at $1.3912, the outlook for the pair EUR/USD remains negative as long as it’s trading below the downtrend line at $1.4496. Resistance levels are situated at Thursday’s maximum at $1.4282 and the 55-day MA at $1.4343. Euro went below support of June minimum at $1.4073, so the specialists believe that it’s currently on its way back down to the 200-day MA at $1.3912. According to the bank, if EUR/USD breaches the 4-month minimum at $1.3837 hit last Tuesday, it will slide to the $1.3717/1.3680 area limited by the 2010-2011 uptrend line and the 55-week MA. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8007 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 "Nomura: EUR/CHF may drop to parity"(2011-07-18) Economists at OECD say that franc is overvalued by the European currency by 38% and by 46% versus the greenback. Never the less, different experts and strategists think that it still has room to continue appreciation. John Taylor, the founder of the world’s largest currency hedge fund FX Concepts, believes that the single currency will fall to the parity with Swiss franc. The specialist claims that the European leaders haven’t come up with any solutions that would help to improve the situation in the euro zone in the longer term. As a result, demand for Switzerland’s currency as a safe haven is likely to remain high. Currency strategists at Nomura International lowered their forecasts for EUR/CHF from 1.4 to 1.2 by the end of the year pointing out that the pair is likely to reach 1.10 over the next 3 months. In their view, the parity level is quite possible if the crisis keeps escalating. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg for the end of 2011 declined from April’s estimate of 1.34 to 1.26. The cost to hedge a drop in the euro versus the franc climbed to the maximum since January 2009. Chart. Weekly USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 "Commerzbank, Barclays Capital: comments on EUR/CHF"(2011-07-18) The single currency has renewed today the record minimum versus Swiss franc by opening in the 1.1410 area, but then managed to restore to 1.1478. Technical analysts at Commerzbank are bearish on EUR/CHF as long as it’s trading below June minimum of 1.1957. In their view, the pair will face resistance at 1.1555 and 1.1770. The specialists note that as the European currency reached the base of 1-year downtrend channel at 1.1410, it may consolidate in the near term. However, euro risks dropping to 1.1290 and 1.1000. Currency strategists at Barclays Capital point out that although there’s a chance that today's gap in EUR/CHF is the so-called exhaustion gap that indicates trend reversal, there should be a great number of long positions being opened in the coming sessions to make this come true. Until it happens the bank bets on EUR/CHF decline to 1.1250. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 "BBH: new rating cuts coming in Europe"(2011-07-18) Ratings agencies have great influence on the markets. On the one hand, Moody's and Standard & Poor's shook traders when last week they’ve warned about the potential US downgrade coming unless the debt ceiling is lifted up. On the other hand, such actions may hurry the nation’s authorities to reach compromise before the time runs out. Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman note that the agencies have missed their chance in the Asian crisis and during the boom of the dot coms, so they are probably trying to overcompensate that now. Analysts at BMO Capital think, however, that rating agencies play a very important role in Europe. In their view, as the European Bank Authority released on Friday the results of stress test that turned out to be better than expected but very likely inadequate, only the rating agencies can provide insight in the more realistic picture. Anyway, BBH specialists note that there will be further downgrades of Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland. Emerging markets, on the contrary, have solid chances for upgrades. The bank proposes investors to use this forecast while developing trading strategists in order to act ahead of the rating agencies. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 "Societe Generale: EUR/JPY may fall to 106.95"(2011-07-19) Technical analysts at Societe Generale believe that the single currency is on its way down to last week's minimums versus Japanese yen in the 109.60 area and then to the downtrend channel support at 109.20. If the pair EUR/JPY breaks even lower, it will slump to the longer-term rising support line at 106.95. According to the bank, on the upside resistance levels are situated at 111.35 and 112.35. Chart. Daily EUR/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 "Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD"(2011-07-19) Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that yesterday the single currency found support in the $1.4000 area versus the greenback and managed to close in the $1.4100 zone posting some gains. The specialists, however, retain their negative view on EUR/USD as long as the pair is trading below the downtrend line at $1.4487. According to the bank, resistance for euro is situated at last Thursday’s maximum of $1.4282 and the 55-day MA at $1.4330. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 "Mizuho: technical levels for some majors"(2011-07-19) Mizuho: technical levels for some majors Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 "Merrill Lynch: USD/JPY will test the record minimum"(2011-07-19) Currency strategists at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch think that the greenback won’t drop below the record minimum versus yen at 76.25 hit on March 17 after Japan was shaken by the severe earthquake. Never the less, the concerns about the debt problems both in the euro area and the United States are likely to keep strengthening risk aversion. As a result, the specialists warn that the slide of the pair USD/JPY may turn out to be surprisingly big. The net short position on Japanese yen that is currently aggregated by the FX margin trade is very large, so the sharp risk aversion may trigger stops provoking unwanted liquidations of investors’ short yen positions making Japanese currency surge. According to BoA-Merrill Lynch, if the pair tests all-time minimum, the Bank of Japan would have to ease policy further, while the nation’s Ministry of finance would probably intervene to stop disorderly appreciation of the national currency. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8024 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 "Westpac recommends selling USD/CAD"(2011-07-19) The Bank of Canada will release its rate statement today at 5:00 pm (GMT+4). The majority of economists agree that the central bank will hold the borrowing costs at the current 1.00% level. Currency strategists at Westpac note that Canadian economy is currently in a very good shape. The specialists reminded about the encouraging June employment report. In addition, Westpac is looking forward to see strong CPI data due on Friday at 3:00 pm (GMT+4). According to the bank, it’s possible to expect that the BOC will sound more hawkish than at the May meeting, so the analysts advise investors to go long on loonie versus its American counterpart. The recommended strategy is selling USD/CAD at 0.9580 stopping above 0.9700 and targeting 0.9350. Сhart. Daily USD/CAD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8026 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 "Credit Agricole, Westpac: pessimistic view on Aussie"(2011-07-19) The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last meeting released today made the odds of its interest rate hike lower. Analysts at Credit Agricole note that the RBA didn’t mention the necessity to tighten monetary policy at some stage and believe that Aussie will remain under negative pressure. Strategists at Barclays Capital expect that the central bank will stay on hold in the near future, though they think that the nation’s monetary authorities are inclining more towards lifting up the borrowing costs than to reducing them. The RBA is keeping its benchmark interest rate at 4.75% since November. Strategists at Westpac note that the pair AUD/USD, which has been staying between 1.0400 and 1.0800 since May, may breach the lower border of this range in the next few weeks. In their view, Australian dollar can slide to 1.0200 and then maybe even to the parity level with its American counterpart. As the reason for Aussie’s weakening the specialists cite the debt problems in the euro area and the United States. It’s also necessary to note that Goldman Sachs that recommended buying AUD/JPY at the end of June revokes this advice. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8028 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 "TD Securities: RBNZ is ready to lift up the interest rates"(2011-07-19) Analysts at TD Securities believe that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may increase the interest rates from the record minimum of 2.5% at its next meeting that is taking place on Thursday, July 28. In their view, it may happen as the inflation rate in the second quarter and the first quarter GDP turned out to be higher than expected. New Zealand’s economy gained 0.8% in the first 3 months of the year while the central bank was projecting only 0.3% growth. The nation’s CPI added 1% in the second quarter versus 0.8% forecast. According to TD Securities, RBNZ may increase the borrowing costs next week by 50 basis points compensation the cut made on March 10 or at least prepare the markets for such move on September 15. In the near term New Zealand’s dollar, however, will likely remain under pressure ahead of EU summit in Brussels scheduled on July 21, warns Ueda Harlow. Chart. H4 NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8030 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 "Barclays Capital: outlook for EUR/CHF and USD/CHF"(2011-07-19) Technical analysts at Barclays Capital believe that in order to reverse July's downtrend versus Swiss franc the single currency has to overcome 1.1650. In such case, EUR/CHF will be able to rise to 1.1810 and possibly to 1.20. Until that happens, the pair’s prospects will remain bearish and euro will be poised down to 1.1250. Chart. H4 EUR/CHF As for the pair USD/CHF, the bank changed the outlook from bearish to neutral noting, however, that taking into account the major downtrend the greenback’s advance will be limited by resistance in the 0.8275/0.8330 area. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8033 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 "Credit Agricole: the prospects of China’s interest rates"(2011-07-19) Currency strategists at Credit Agricole believe that the People’s bank of China will pause its monetary tightening cycle in the second half of the year as the nation’s economic growth and inflation pace is slowing down. The specialists note that Chinese monetary authorities are content with the current state on the country’s economy – so called “soft landing” as this was exactly the goal they pursued by raising borrowing costs and reserve requirements rate. Credit Agricole notes that China now needs to finish policy tightening before the economic growth declines more sharply. The specialists believe that the PBOC will conduct no more deposit and credit rate hikes until the next year when the economy will once again starts gaining pace. Credit Agricole thinks, however, that the bank will keep sterilizing its currency interventions by increasing required reserve ratio. The bank is looking forward to 2 such hikes until the end of 2011. China’s second quarter GDP growth was in line with the forecasts gaining 9.5% after 9.7% advance during the first 3 months of the year. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8036 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 "Commerzbank: GBP/USD will face resistance"(2011-07-20) The greenback went up from Monday´s minimum in the $1.6000 area to yesterday’s maximum of $1.6177. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim, however, that though the near-term outlook has become neutral, the 3-month downtrend is still in place. As a result, the pair GBP/USD will face resistance at $1.6220 strengthened by the 55-day MA at $1.6213 that is pointing lower. The specialists expect sterling to fall to $1.5778. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8038 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 "Westpac, Citi about the prospects of AUD/USD this year"(2011-07-20) Australian dollar has made significant advance versus its US counterpart gaining 21% this year due to the strong commodity prices and relatively high interest rates. Apart from other Australian banks analysts at Westpac expect that the Reserve bank of Australia will reduce interest rates that will put Aussie under pressure for the rest of this year. In addition, the specialists express concerns about the euro area’s crisis having a negative impact on Australian consumer confidence. Currency strategists at Citi, on the other hand, tend to be bullish on AUD/USD. In their view, the massive investments in the metals and the LNG space will provide solid support for Australian dollar during the next 5 years. The bank believes that the RBA rates will stay unchanged this year. The economists underline that the mining industry keeps performing quite well, while housing prices are still very high, so there’s no need for the central bank to cut rates. As a result, building the trading strategy on AUD/USD one has to decide whether to focus on the miners or the consumers and be ready to adjust quickly. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/8040 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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