riki143 Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 USD/JPY: PRICE REACHED UPPER "WINDOW" 15:22 29.06.2017 The price has reached the upper "Window". If any bearish pattern forms, the pair is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another bullish rally. There isn't any bearish pattern so far, cause all the last candles are bullish. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest "Window" in the coming hours. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will have a green light to set up a downward correction. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_price_reached_upper_%22window%22_1890 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 OIL MARKET OVERVIEW 15:24 29.06.2017 Oil prices extended gains for a six-straight day after falling near 20% since mid-May when OPEC and non-OPEC producers extended their output reduction deal until March 2018, but with lesser than expected cuts. Brent oil futures spiked to $48.10 after the US Energy Information said that country’s weekly production decreased 100K per barrel to 9.3. million bpd (the biggest decline since last year summer). An indication of the surprise build in crude inventories was discarded by jubilant oil buyers. Some analysts believe that traders’ excitement is premature. The output decline is likely temporary; the decline in the US production was caused by the storm disruption to the activity in the Gulf of Mexico last week. In the upcoming days, crude oil futures will likely lose their earlier gains. There is a sense that markets are still oversupplied with upticks in Nigeria’s and Libya’s output which exempted from the OPEC-led production cut deal. Earlier in June, Libya's 270,000-bpd Sharara oilfield was reopened after political situation in the country stabilized. The oil demand is decreasing worldwide. India’s prime minister Narendra Modi has recently announced that the nation seeks to cut its dependence on oil imports and push forward the domestic production. India is the world’s third-biggest oil importer, so reductions in the longer term will send oil prices lower. Another headwind for oil prices was increasing tension in the Middle East. In early June, Saudi Arabia and a group of its close allies decided to punish Qatar for its support of Iran and terrorist groups. The land, sea and air blockade of the country was established in a matter of time. The following event was negatively perceived by the market participants; it could undermine OPEC’s effort to curb oil glut as some parties of the deal will more likely to cheat and sell more oil above the assigned quota (Qatar, for example, retaliate its neighbors for the blockade). The Qataris and Saudis are still seeking a diplomatic solution. Last week, the Saudi King promoted Mohammed bin Salman to the position of Crown Prince (it means that he will likely become the next king). The Crown price took a hard line against Iran and accused its foreign affairs in Yemen. The blockade should make Qatar to abstract itself from Iran. If there is a peaceful solution to the situation with Qatar, oil price will rise (the peaceful solution will likely to occur). The newly promoted Crown Prince will play a high stake game with the Iranians in the process of resolution of Qatari problem. If he wins, the reaction of the oil prices will also be positive. At the time of writing, Brent oil futures are trading at $48.12. There is a scope for extension to $49. A break above $50 is unlikely though given the lack of positive fundamentals. On the downside, there are several supports at $46.20, $45.75 levels. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/oil_market_overview_1891 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 EUR/USD: PRICE STILL RISING IN WAVE [V] OF C 15:48 29.06.2017 The price is still rising in wave [v] of C. The main intraday target is 8/8 MM Level. If we have a pullback from this level, there'll be an opportunity to have a downward price movement. As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price is rising in wave (v) of [v] since a pullback from 1/8 MM Level happened. Therefore, bulls are likely going to test 4/8 MM Level soon. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_price_still_rising_in_wave_%5bv%5d_of_c_1892 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 BITCOIN COULD START TO RESUME BULLISH BIAS, LOOKS FOR THE $3165 LEVEL 03:17 03.07.2017 Bitcoin, quoted in USD, is already trapped in an interesting area where buyers could help to boost the cryptocurrency towards record highs in the mid-term. During last weeks, headlines that called for a massive crash in BTC/USD added pressure in the bearish bias and that’s why we’re seeing a consolidation below $2600. Our Fibonacci forecast is showing that a demand zone has been established between $2438 and $2299.45 (50% - 61.8%), which could send the pair to test the $3165.79, where is located the -23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. RSI indicator is trying to turn positive at H4 chart, favoring the bullish outlook. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/bitcoin_could_start_to_resume_bullish_bias%2c_looks_for_the_%243165_level_1932 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 MORNING BRIEF FOR JULY 7 08:47 03.07.2017 The yen was in today’s spotlight due to the Tokyo election on Sunday resulting in a big loss for the incumbent prime minister Abe and due to the swath of data out of Japan. Exit polls indicated the Liberal Democratic Party will likely win the fewest ever seats in the Tokyo assembly, forcing Abe to leave his post. Bank of Japan Q2 Tankan and Nikkei/Markit Manufacturing PMI beat market expectations and showed that Japanese economy is gathering steam. But as we saw early the indications of the heightened economic growth are discarded by the BOJ officials. They are centered on the inflation figures that are still hugely missing their target. USD/JPY ticked higher above 112.50 in the Asian session. There are several resistances ahead lying at 112.75, 112.80. The latter one may not be yielded easily. The technical outlook is still bullish, only a move below 111.30 will indicate the end of the bullish phase. EUR/USD traded at 1.1412 not far away from last week’s high (1.1445 – the highest level in more than a year). The single currency got support from the expectations that the ECB is set to withdraw its stimulus. Jens Weidmann, head of Germany’s Buba and a member of the ECB’s rate-setting committee, said on Saturday that the ECB is working hard on moving away from its ultra-loose monetary policy. Later this week we will hear more comments from the ECB’s officials (Peter Praet and normally hawkish Eward Nowotny both speaking tomorrow). The pair will likely trade sideways in the upcoming sessions just a few pips lower from its recent highs. Aussie lost momentum on Monday sliding to 0.7675 from 0.7712 (Friday’s high) after the lower than expected building approval print. During the next sessions, the Australian dollar has a chance to return its strength (especially if we get disappointing manufacturing figures from the US) and rise to 0.7720 – a quite strong resistance level. Kiwi traded in Aussie’s fashion – lower from its last session. It dipped to 0.7316 from 0.7345. There is almost no catalyst for NZD to rise higher from the current level in the upcoming sessions. Most likely, NZD/USD will be trading sideways in the range of 0.7250 – 0.7375. Loonie reached 1.2945 against the Us dollar on Friday. On Monday, the majority of currencies, it surrendered to the greenback. Oil prices extended their gains on Monday lifted by the first fall in US drilling activity in months. Brent futures are now at $48.85 per barrel. There is a room for further extension as Qatari problem is still not solved. The pound fell around 0.2 percent to 1.2995 after the 8-day rally. Today’s focus will be on the UK manufacturing PMI which is due at 12:30 MT time. Apparently, the recent rally was overbought, so quotes moved lower. We remain optimistic and don’t lose our faith in the GBP. There is a room for extension towards 1.3020/1.3045. A break of the support at 1.2925 would put an end to the recent rally. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_july_7_1936 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 GOLD ATTACKS THE NECKLINE 09:16 03.07.2017 On the daily chart of gold, quotes came closer to the necklines of the Head and Shoulders pattern. A successful test of this line will open the way towards $1183 – 1188. In contrast, a rollback would lead to the consolidation in the range of $1230 – 1260. On the hourly chart of gold, quotes move within the downward trading channel. The bears remain their control over the pair. The prepare for the attack of the June high. If it is tested successfully the rally will continue towards the target 200% in the AB=CD pattern. An important support is located near $1.231. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gold_attacks_the_neckline_1938 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 USD / JPY: BULLS SAW A BAT 09:19 03.07.2017 On the USD/JPY daily chart, Bulls settled in above the important level at 112.07. They are going to attack the diagonal resistance in the form of the upper border of the downward long-term channel. Its successful test will increase the risks for the realization of the Bat pattern. Its target 127.2% is located near 117.4. On the USD/jPY, the Dragon pattern is relevant. An update of June high (the Dragon’s head) will create prerequisites for the continuation of the rally towards the convergence zone 113.7 – 113.75 (target 161.8% in the AB=CD + level 88.6^ from the last downward wave) and higher. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd___jpy%3a_bulls_saw_a_bat_1939 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 AUD/USD: AUSSIE ENTERED TO TENKAN-KIJUN CHANNEL 09:35 03.07.2017 Technical levels: support – 0.7640; resistance – 0.7690. Trade recommendations: Buy — 0.7640; SL — 0.7620; TP1 — 0.7690; TP2 — 0.7730. Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, rising Tenkan-sen; the market in a correction to Kijun-sen. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd%3a_aussie_entered_to_tenkan_kijun_channel_1940 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 USD/JPY: DOLLAR SUPPORTED BY KIJUN-SEN 09:36 03.07.2017 Technical levels: support – 112.30; resistance – 113.20, 113.60. Trade recommendations: Buy — 112.50; SL — 112.30; TP1 — 113.20; TP2 — 113.60. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising Kijun-sen; the prices supported by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and may go higher. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_dollar_supported_by_kijun_sen_1941 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 EUR/USD: CONSOLIDATION ABOVE THE 34 MA 10:11 03.07.2017 Bulls faced resistance at 1.1464, so we've got a "V-Top" pattern, which pushed the price to support at 1.1398. In this case, the market is likely going to test the next support at 1.1365. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards resistance at 1.1464 - 1.1494 The main trend is still bullish, but there's a consolidation, which is taking place above the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.1365 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from this support, bulls will probably try to reach resistance at 1.1464. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_consolidation_above_the_34_ma_1944 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 GBP/USD: "DOUBLE TOP" STOPPED BULLS 10:29 03.07.2017 The price is consolidating between the levels 1.3046 - 1.2976. Also, we've got two "V-Top" patterns in a row, so the pair is likely going to test the closest support at 1.2976 - 1.2947. If a pullback from this area happens afterwards, bulls will have a green light to catch the next resistance at 1.3046 - 1.3056. There's a consolidating, which is taking place under resistance at 1.3012 - 1.3028. In this case, bears are likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.2976 - 1.2947. Considering a possible pullback from this area, we should keep in mind the next resistance at 1.3046 - 1.3056 as an intraday bullish target. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_%22double_top%22_stopped_bulls_1946 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 OIL MARKET OVERVIEW 10:54 03.07.2017 Oil futures advanced for an eighth consecutive session on Monday. It is the longest winning streak of the year. WTI crude was trading up 0.3% at $46.22 per barrel on the NYMEX. Brent futures were 0.3% higher at $49.05 per barrel in London. Major tailwind factors: US oil industry Oil prices rallied mainly due to the slowdown in the US oil production. Prices were already rebounding after official data published Wednesday showed total US crude production dropped by 100K barrels per a day (though many analysts refused to join jubilant traders saying that the fall is temporary; there was a storm in the Gulf of Mexico that disturbed the oil industry’s activity). Baker Hughes data released on Friday indicated that the number of active US rigs drilling for oil declined by 2 to 756 in the past week (which is the first drop in 23 weeks!). These 2 rigs fanned the flame in oil market and pushed oil prices higher. Famished Bulls have finally made a good haul on the falling output in the US oil industry. Major headwind factors: Other suppliers Some investors remain skeptical about the continuation of the oil prices’ rally for compelling reasons. There is a potential for an increased output from Libya and Nigeria, members of the OPEC exempt from the OPEC-led output cut agreement. Libya’s oil production spiked to more than 1 million barrels a day for the first time in 4 years due to the reopening of the country’s largest oil field Sharara. Libya’s production is seen rising additional 300K barrels a day on average for the third quarter compared with the first quarter. Qatari problem is still not resolved On Monday, Qatar missed a deadline to comply with a list of demands from the Saudi-led alliance that blockaded the emirate since June 5. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates accused Qatar of supporting the terrorist groups and having close ties with Iran. The US policymakers confirmed that Qatar has funded Al Qaeda affiliates in Syria and some elements of ISIS – the very terrorist groups the American troops are bombing striving to liberate northern Iraq. Qatar also supports Hamas, Yemen-based Houthi rebels (which are against the Saudi regime), offered a sanctuary to the Muslim Brotherhood leaders and other spiritual guides of terrorists. All these activities might have been tolerable, if not Qatari support of Iran. When Iran was under embargo, Qatar continued to sell Iranian natural gas to power-starved Europe. Having recognized that shipping the fuel resources by sea is costly, slow and very risky, Qatar proposed a building of a pipeline across Syria to move Iranian energy products to the European markets. But Syrian civil war and disobedience of Bashar Al-Assad made Qatar and Iran give up on their plans. In short, Qatari support destined for Iran was the last straw for its Arab neighbors. They demanded Qatari officials to stop financing the terrorists, backing armed uprisings between Sunnis and Shia groups. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/oil_market_overview_1947 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 DO NOT BELITTLE G-20 SUMMIT 13:02 03.07.2017 Some traders simply disregard the importance of such political assemblies as G-20 summits viewing them irrelevant for interpretation of market’s moves. In some degree, they are right, markets are not really responsive to the G-20/G-7-like meetings. But the upcoming event has some ginger due to its agenda, the leaders representing 20 leading economies and due to some sidelines meetings. Angela Merkel will host leaders of the G20 leading economies on this Friday at a Hamburg summit. On the agenda of the meeting are the most contentious and sensitive issues such as free trade, climate change, and immigration. Merkel will try hard to deliver a strong and clear message on the importance of international trade against any protectionist actions. A failure to agree on a commitment to keep global trade free and open will have negative consequences for financial markets. It also will be interesting to see how Trump will try to defend his staunchy protectionist claims against the barrage of criticism from the part of other leaders. Obviously, he cannot simply reject them all at once as they served him well as a candidate. Traders should also pay special attention to the sideline meeting of President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. The leaders agreed to hold their first meeting during the G-20 summit. We will eager to know how much Mr. Trump is willing to confront the man whose meddling in the 2016 election may have helped him win. The encounter between the two heads will be held on the back of widening deferral investigation into possible collusion between Trump’s confidants and the Russian political entities, the investigation into Trump’s decision to dismiss former FBI director James Comey (potentially leading to Trump’s impeachment). The US President will have a chance to demonstrate (or not demonstrate) that he is not the Putin’s puppet as Hillary Clinton once called him. Not only American voters will closely watch the highlights of the meeting, but so will a special counsel appointed for the examination of whether Trump tried to impede Russian investigation or not. Given the importance of these events in under present circumstances, we wait for some moves in the pairs containing the USD following the publication of the communique and play-by-play news from the G20 meeting. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/do_not_belittle_g_20_summit_1950 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 USD/CAD DAILY OUTLOOK 14:18 03.07.2017 The sentiment surrounding the Loonie has turned bullish last week due to the recent hawkish BoC’s rhetoric. The Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz and his deputy Carolyn Wilkins made it clear – a rate hike is imminent, if not in the July 12 meeting, then in September. Worries over the housing market and subdued inflation rates might temper the central bank’s willingness to act promptly. Raw material and industrial prices released last Friday dropped lower indicating the absence of inflation; CPI figures were lower than expected (0.1% against forecasted 0.2%). The currency’s correlation to oil prices is becoming weaker. On the heels of the BoC’s comments, the Canadian dollar didn’t stop strengthening despite the declining oil prices. Today we saw a modest pick-up in the US dollar against the CAD despite the surging oil prices. So, we suggest the CAD will be driven predominantly by the economic releases and the BOC officials’ comments in the upcoming future. The next economic indicators will be published at 4:30 pm on Thursday – trade balance data and building permits. On Friday, we will get a package of labor data out of Canada and the US. If the US data beat market’s expectation on the back of disappointing release of the Canadian employment indicators, the USD/CAD will rise higher. The current technical outlook is neutral. USD/CAD trades at 1.2975. On a sustained recovery back above the 1.3000 handle, a fresh bout of buying could lift the pair towards 1.3070/1.3100 resistance area. On the downside, 1.2965 level may serve as immediate support, which if broken would send the pair to 1.2945/1.2930 levels. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad_daily_outlook_1951 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 EUR/USD: DEVELOPING IMPULSE IN WAVE (I) 14:35 03.07.2017 Wave [v] of C may have been ended, so there's a developing impulse in wave . The main intraday target is 4/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for an upward correction. We've got a developing impulse in wave (i), which is likely going to be ended on 2/8 MM Level. If we see a pullback from this line, there'll be an opportunity to have wave (ii). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_developing_impulse_in_wave_%28i%29_1952 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 EUR/USD: TWO "TWEEZERS" PATTERNS IN A ROW 14:55 03.07.2017 We've got bearish patterns such a "Tweezers" and an "Engulfing", which both have been confirmed enough. Also, there's a bearish "Three Methods", so the market is likely going to test the lower "Window" in the short term. There're two "Tweezers" patterns in a row, so the price is declining. Bears have reached the 55 Moving Average, but there isn't any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, the pair is likely going to continue moving down towards the 89 MA. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_two_%22tweezers%22_patterns_in_a_row_1953 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 USD/JPY: 21 MOVING AVERAGE ACTED AS SUPPORT 14:58 03.07.2017 The 21 Moving Average has acted as support, so we've got a new local high. Also, bulls have broken the "Window" and we don't have any bearish pattern. So, the market is likely going to continue rising until any reversal pattern forms. All the last candles are bullish, so there isn't any reversal pattern so far. The main intraday target is the upper "Window". If a pullback from this level happens, bears will have a green light to deliver a downward correction. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_21_moving_average_acted_as_support_1954 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 MORNING BRIEF FOR JULY 4 08:38 04.07.2017 The Aussie was hurt badly after the Reserve Bank of Australia held its interest rates unchanged at their record low. Governor Lowe’s statement was not as upbeat as many expected. He put a special emphasis on the subdued wage growth. Australia’s economic health was described as rather strong with business conditions and investments picking up stronger employment growth. Nevertheless, the board decided in favor of “no change” willing to support the country’s economic recovery and prevent A$ from rising higher. The US Dollar Index which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies was down 0.07% to 95.85. US markets are closed today for the Independence day holiday, so we don’t expect big swings here. USD/JPY crept down to 113.10 in Tokyo morning, but managed not to drop below the key resistance at 113.00 and remained not far away from the seven-week high of 113.47 touched earlier (after the US factories powered up in June at their fastest pace in 3 years). The yen gained strength after South Korea announced that Pyongyang once again fired their ballistic missile. The missile landed in Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), the Japanese government said. North Korea is repeatedly ignoring warnings from the international community, Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Tuesday. Abe said he will ask the heads of China and Russia to play more constructive roles in efforts to stop North Korea from launching additional missiles. Leaders of the world’s 20 strongest economies will gather in Hamburg for a two-day summit hosted by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Donald Trump will attend the following event and meet Russia’s Vladimir Putin for the first time as being a President. Donald Trump commented the recent missile firing in Twitter: "North Korea has just launched another missile. Does this guy have anything better to do with his life?" referring to the North's leader Kim Jong Un. Today’s focus will on the Japan’s core CPI figures which are due at 9:00 am. Any uptick in the inflation figures will help the yen to strengthen. The euro was little changed on Tuesday’s morning in the absences of the economic releases and central bankers’ speeches. It fell to 1.1355 against the greenback having lost its last week steam. Pay special attention to the ECB's official Novotny's speech which is due at 19:30 (MT team). He will speak of the economic consideration of the ECB's monetary policy. The British pound inched higher but failed to recoup its yesterday’s losses after worse-than-expected data from the UK’s manufacturing sector. Theresa May striving to keep her slim majority on the side and gain the approval of more Britons signaled the end of austerity in the upcoming future. In today’s spotlight – the British construction PMI which is coming out at 11:30 am (MT time). USD/CAD was trading a bit lower despite declining oil prices. Brent and WTI futures retreated in the Asian session halting a run of eight straight days of gains as traders received a signal that a relentless rise in US crude production is running out of steam. USD/CAD is trading near 1.2995. There is a strong support at 1.2945 (last Friday’s low) which is if broken will allow Loonie to test lower levels. The immediate resistance can be found at 1.3040. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_july_4__1974 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 USD/CAD: LOONIES NEEDS A REST 09:41 04.07.2017 On the USD/CAD daily chart, the final target in the Wolfe Waves pattern has been fulfilled and the 23.6% level of the 2016 downward near-term wave has been reached. As a result, the risks for the correction from the current levels, or from the 113% target of Shark pattern have increased. On the USD/CAD hourly chart, Bulls’ positions seem hopeless. Nevertheless, a successful test of the resistance in the form of the convergence zone at 1.303 – 1.304 will increase the risks of the rollback towards 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% from the last downward wave. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad%3a_loonies_needs_a_rest_1975 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 AUD/USD: AUSSIE PREPARES FOR TRANSFORMATION 09:52 04.07.2017 On the AUD/USD daily chart, there was a rollback after target 88.6% of the Bat pattern had been hit. The Bear’s failure to test the support at 0.7635 tells us about their weakness. Update of the June high may lead to the transformation of the Bat pattern into the Crab pattern. The targets of the latter pattern are located above the 0.8 level. On the AUD/USD hourly chart, the exit of quotes beyond the limits of the downward short-term channel followed by the test of the resistance at 0.7695 will increase the risks of the activation and realization of the AB=CD pattern. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd%3a_aussie_prepares_for_transformation_1976 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 EUR/USD: "V-TOP" PATTERN 11:31 04.07.2017 We've got a "V-Top" pattern, so the price reached support at 1.1340. Meanwhile, the market is likely going to continue moving down towards the next support at 1.1307 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.1365 - 1.1398. The 55 Moving Average has been broken, so the price faced support at 1.1340. At the same time, there's a "V-Bottom", which pushed the price to resistance at 1.1354. In this case, the market is likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, bears will have a green light to test the closest support at 1.1307. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_%22v_top%22_pattern_1979 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 GBP/USD: CONFIRMED "DOUBLE TOP" 11:42 04.07.2017 There's a "Double Top", which has been confirmed, so bears found support at 1.2926. Therefore, the pair is likely going to decline in the direction of the nearest support at 1.2887. However, if a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to achieve the next resistance at 1.2964 - 1.2976. The price is consolidating between the 34 & 55 Moving Averages. So, bulls are likely going to reach the closest resistance at 1.2964 - 1.2976. If we have a pullback from this area, there'll be an option to have another decline towards support at 1.2926 - 1.2915. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_confirmed_%22double_top%22_1980 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 THE MISSING FACTOR IN YOUR FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 12:02 04.07.2017 In this article we will tell about one of the most significant fundamental factors the traders sometimes overlook while analyzing the currency’s movement. This is a country’s foreign exchange reserves. Then, we will talk about the banks’ “favorite” currencies (constituting the great share of the banks’ foreign reserves) in the recent years. Almost all countries hold foreign currency reserves for multiple purposes. For a country with a fixed exchange rate and free cross-border capital flows, a large stock of reserves is indispensable for the maintenance of the desired exchange rate. A good example would be China, which pegs the value of its domestic currency – the yuan (renminbi) – to the USD. When China increases its holdings of the US dollars, it raises its values as compared to the yuan. That makes the country’s exports cheaper compared to the good of American origin. From today’s headlines: China’s state-own banks selling USD/CNY to support the yuan – the result of this operation – depreciation of the USD against CNY. For an advanced country with a floating exchange rate, a smaller, but still sufficient stock of reserves is required. The following country’s interventions in the exchange markets are normally infrequent. The primary purpose for holding the reserves in foreign currencies, therefore, may relate to the risk that extreme market disorder could compromise the functioning of the FX markets in ways that create significant difficulties for the country’s real economy. The advanced countries, like Japan, would also be willing to keep some foreign currencies to artificially support their currencies from unexpected valuations. Another purpose for the countries to keep sufficient foreign currency reserves is to be able to pay for three to six months of imports, to cover the country's debt payments and current account deficits for the next 12 months. So, as you see, the decision of a bank to stockpile a certain foreign currency affects this currency’s and the bank’s domestic currency exchange rates. With this axiom we now may explicate the recent appreciation of some major currencies. The USD has crashed down significantly this year (compared to the last year so-called “Trump’s rally). In contrast, the yen and the Aussie experienced some surprising rallies since the beginning of this year. What are the primary causes of the following FX market’s moves? To some extent, it’s the central banks’ handiwork. The International Monetary Fund released data last week on the composition of global foreign exchange reserves. We have identified some changing dynamics in the buy-and-hold investors’ preferences in the past few years. The British pound was kicked out from the central banks’ list of all-time favorites constituting the largest shares of foreign currency reserves. The yen and Aussie were among the beneficiaries in the first quarter of this year as you may see from the chart. The same can be said about their outstanding performance in the given period. In the second quarter, investors switched their attention to the euro and cooled on JPY and AUD. The euro picked up in the course of the period. Source: IMF Despite some drops in the demand for the USD, it still remains the preeminent reserve currency. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/the_missing_factor_in_your_fundamental_analysis_1981 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 EUR/USD: PRICE DECLINING IN WAVE 13:30 04.07.2017 The price is still declining in wave . Previously, wave [v] of C has been ended near 7/8 MM Level. So, the market is likely going to continue moving down towards 4/8 MM Level. There's a bearish impulse, which could be wave (i), so bulls are likely going to deliver wave (ii) in the coming hours. Nevertheless, we could have another bearish impulse in wave (iii) afterwards. More: v Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 EUR/USD: PRICE DECLINING IN WAVE 13:30 04.07.2017 The price is still declining in wave . Previously, wave [v] of C has been ended near 7/8 MM Level. So, the market is likely going to continue moving down towards 4/8 MM Level. There's a bearish impulse, which could be wave (i), so bulls are likely going to deliver wave (ii) in the coming hours. Nevertheless, we could have another bearish impulse in wave (iii) afterwards. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_price_declining_in_wave_%5bi%5d_1982 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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