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EUR/USD: "V-TOP" AT THE LOCAL HIGH

06:36 17.05.2017

 

1495002937-c35b5361a49c5af0c10ac96dc76d4

 

The price has been rising since a "Triple Bottom" was formed at the last low. However, bulls faced resistance at 1.1122, so there's an opportunity to have a downward correction towards the nearest support at 1.1066. If we see a pullback from this level, we should keep an eye on resistance at 1.1122 - 1.1152 as the next bullish target.

 

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We've got a "V-Top" at the local high. If this pattern confirms, bears are likely going to test support at 1.1066. Meanwhile, if we a pullback from this level happens, bulls will try to push the price even higher.

 

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AUD/USD: WILL BULLS SHOW THEIR WEAKNESS?

06:37 17.05.2017

 

On the AUD/USD daily chart, there is a continuation of the near-term bearish trend.There are two resistances at 0.7425 and 0.745. If bulls fail to test them, it will be a sign of their weakness, and it will lead to the formation of short positions.

 

Screenshot_2017_05_17_07_16_13.png

 

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, the realization of the Dragon pattern continues. To restore the upward short-term trend, bulls need to test the resistance at 0.7445. But at the same time, bears may easily regain control over the pair. They need to test the quotes located below the support at 0.7395. If it is tested successfully, the expanding wedge will be completed.

 

Screenshot_2017_05_17_07_16_35.png

 

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GBP/USD: POUND LOOKS BETTER

06:38 17.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2900; resistance –1.2950, 1.3070.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 1.2920/30; SL — 1.2900; TP1 — 1.3010; TP2 — 1.3070.

Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are supported by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the Bulls going to breakout an SSA’s resistance.

 

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AUD/USD: AUSSIE KEEP STAYING IN CLOUD

06:40 17.05.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7370, 0.7420; resistance – 0.7470.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 0.7420; SL — 0.7400; TP1 — 0.7470.

Sell — 0.7470; SL — 0.7490; TP1 — 0.7380; TP2 — 0.7340.

Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A and horizontal Senkou Span B; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with rising Kijun-sen; the prices are supported by Tenkan-Sen.

 

1495003179-42a68b4bfa2f0515dfbaa054e9dba

 

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GBP/USD: BULLS GOING TO TEST NEXT RESISTANCE

06:41 17.05.2017

 

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The pair is consolidating along the 55 Moving Average, so bulls are likely going to achieve the closest resistance at 1.2964 - 1.2995. As a result, the last high is going to be broken, but there's also an opportunity to have a bearish correction afterwards.

 

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There's a consolidation, which is taking place between resistance at 1.2955 and support at 1.2883. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the next resistance at 1.2964 - 1.2988 in the coming hours. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will have a chance to test support at 1.2901 - 1.2883.

 

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XAU/USD NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

10:32 17.05.2017

 

The bullion rose to $1245 as Trump-related news sparked safe-haven demand.

Gold has started its upsurge last week following Trump’s firing of FBI director James Comey. On Monday, Trump was accused of disclosing the US highly classified intelligence information to Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov. The yellow metal got an additional boost following the high-rank meeting in Oval Office.

The latest news appeared on Tuesday in the New York Times. It said that President Donald Trump tried to influence an FBI investigation into the ties between former US security advisor Michael Flynn and Russian authorities. Investors are questioning now whether there is a possibility of impeachment as Donald Trump allegedly obstructed justice (an impeachable offense in the US). The White House denied the NYT’s revelation.

The investors perceived the turmoil in Trump’s West Wing as yet more doubt that tax cuts, fiscal stimulus, and other pro-growth policies will be introduced.  The US dollar is still under pressure, while safe-haven assets caught a bid on Trump’s concerns.

The bullion’s prices are hovering near the key resistance at $1247.30 (which a lower border of the previous upward trading channel + it is located near 200-day and 50-day MAs). If bulls manage to test the following level and rise towards $1270, we might see the continuation of the rally towards $1295.80 (this year high). In the opposite scenario, the prices risk sliding towards supports at $1228.60, 1213.85 levels.

 

1495017113-e6046f42b75ea74e2c81523d81315

 

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EUR/USD: PRICE TESTING 7/8 MM LEVEL

12:22 17.05.2017

 

1495023564-c935b54b412ab66292704deb092c6

 

The price is testing 7/8 MM Level, so wave 2 is about to end. If we see a pullback from this level, there'll be an opportunity to have an impulse in wave (i). In this case, the nearest bearish target will be 6/8 MM Level.

 

1495023564-3574dbb7cece9a0bbc39def4c5d7e

 

There's a developing bullish impulse in wave © of [y] on the one-hour chart. It seems like wave iv could be a little bit bigger, so 7/8 MM Level is likely going to act as support soon. Also, this wave count requires confirmation, which is a downward impulse in wave i. So, until price doesn't achieve 6/8 MM Level, the current bullish impulse could move on.

 

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EUR/USD: NEW HIGH COMING SOON

12:58 17.05.2017

 

1495025805-7a57b47dcafb5610de3cab2be2cd0

 

The market has been rising since the lower "Window" acted as support. However, there's a bearish "Engulfing", but this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet. So, the pair is likely going to test the next resistance level in the short term. If any bearish pattern arrives afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have a downward correction.

 

1495025804-4e6d1c36a4b1ccf1542309dbedb8f

 

There's a bullish "Inverted Hammer", which has confirmation, so the price is consolidating. In this case, we're about to have a new local high, so it turns out that the price is going to rise until another bearish pattern forms.

 

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USD/JPY: BROKEN "WINDOW" AND BEARISH CANDLES

13:04 17.05.2017

 

1495026201-234957303b0a97c94843bd6c429c0

 

Bears have broken the "Window", so the price achieved the 144 Moving Average. Therefore, this broken "Window" is likely going to act as resistance in the coming hours. If we see a pullback from this level, bears will try to push the pair even lower.

 

1495026201-f0181eb8556ebd219fc3e1d902a7a

 

There isn't any reversal pattern on the one-hour chart, so all last candles are bearish. In this case, the current decline is going to be continued until any bullish pattern arrives.

 

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EUR/USD REACHED BUY TARGET 1.1100

16:07 17.05.2017

 

EUR/USD reached buy target 1.1100

Next buy target - 1.1200

EUR/USD continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 1.1100 (which was set as the buy target in out previous forecast for this currency pair) and the resistance trendline of the wide daily up channel from January. The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active minor impulse wave C.

EUR/USD is expected to rise further the next buy target at the resistance level 1.1200 (target price for the termination of the active intermediate ABC correction (2)).

 

7pST6TFYd.png

 

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USD/CHF REACHED SELL TARGET 0.9870

16:09 17.05.2017

 

USD/CHF reached sell target 0.9870

Next sell target - 0.9750

USD/CHF recently broke through the support zone lying between the pivotal support level 0.9870 (previous sell target, which has been reversing the price from last January) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from November. The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to the C-wave from March.

USD/CHF is expected to fall to the next sell target at the support level 0.9750 (forecast price for the completion of the active impulse wave (iii)).

 

7pZlzNXJX.png

 

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MORNING BRIEF FOR MAY 18

06:10 18.05.2017

 

The US dollar was hurt and Treasury yields declined with allegations against Trump on the collusion between his election campaign and Russian entities. This came following the New York Times release of James Comey’s memo. It states that Trump pressured the former FBI Director to drop his investigation into Mike Flynn, former US security adviser, with Russian authorities in the mix. The news

The Trump reflation trade seems now totally unwound, and investors’ economic stimulus hopes are killed. USD/JPY saw a sharp dive overnight. The yen strengthened to 110.54 against the USD. In the Asian session, USD/JPY rebounded to 111.10 as there was little in the news from the US today apart from the appointment of a special counsel to the Russia investigation. We will be waiting for the test of 111.90 to restore the bullish outlook.

The euro spiked to a high above 1.1170 then retreated to 1.1140 as there was nothing in terms of euro specific news today. ECB President Draghi will be speaking tonight in the wake of the French Presidential election. We don’t expect it is a market driving event. Draghi will likely be cautious choosing not to speak of gradual tapering of QE and ECB’s monetary policy projections. There is also a streak of the US data on the agenda: jobless claims and the Philly Fed survey. Also, traders will have a chance to hear Fed president Mester speaking. And there is also a potential for some news from Washington. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will be speaking and the investors will be all ears to hear his view on the economy, trade, US currency, Administration’s fiscal plans.

Aussie rose higher to 0.7470 as the USD retreated. Yesterday’s statement from Standard & Poor’s affirmed Australia’s AAA sovereign rating and maintaining the negative outlook. The driving force of today’s AUD upsurge was upbeat labor market report from Australia with declined unemployment rate and more jobs created.

Kiwi was a big winner yesterday. It rose to 0.6943 but edged down to 0.6930 in the Asian session.

USD/CAD is trading near 1.3620. The currency pair is going through the consolidation phase. A break of resistance at 1.3640 will allow us to bet for a further upsurge towards 1.3670.

In commodities, oil prices lost a few point in the Asian session after settling at a two-week high overnight. A talk about OPEC’s production cuts has partially propped up the fuel but prices remain under pressure from still plentiful supplies.

 

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NZD/USD: KIWI IS GAINING ITS STRENGTH

06:27 18.05.2017

 

Recommendation: BUY 0,695 SL 0,6895 TP 0,708. 

On the NZD/USD daily chart, bulls managed to return quotes to the upper boundary of the downward trading channel and to the lower boundary of the previously formed triangle. If the resistance is tested successfully, activation of the inverted Shark pattern will increase the risks of implementation of target 113%. The convergence zone is located within 0.707-0.7085 levels.

 

Screenshot_2017_05_18_07_01_34.png

 

On the NZD/USD hourly chart, the Wolff Waves pattern is in the process of realization.  A repeated successful test of line 2-4 and resistance at 0.695 can lead to the continuation of the rally towards 0.707.

 

Screenshot_2017_05_18_07_01_50.png

 

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EUR/USD: EURO BROKE THE TREND

06:28 18.05.2017

 

On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is a change in the long-term downward trend. It became clear after quotes went outside the downward trading channel and increased the slope of the medium-term "bullish" trend. In the nearest future, the euro may face a correction once 88.6% target in the inverted "Bat pattern is fulfilled. A successful test of the resistance at 1.12 may lead to the continuation of the rally towards 1.14 and higher.

 

Screenshot_2017_05_18_07_01_04.png

 

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, fulfillment of the target 200% (1.12) in the AB = CD pattern may lead to a short-term rollback towards the area of 1.1060-1.1085.

 

Screenshot_2017_05_18_07_01_18.png

 

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EUR/USD: "TRIPLE TOP" STOPPED BULLS

06:30 18.05.2017

 

1495088938-a18e613f4632c302a1147a43d2385

 

Bulls have faced resistance at 1.1152, so we've got a "V-Top" pattern. Therefore, the price is likely going to decline towards the nearest support at 1.1122 - 1.1102. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.1198 - 1.1212.

 

1495088938-3427bd4f78f939a2cd80d72b6ea04

 

There's a "Triple Top" pattern, which has been confirmed, so the price is consolidating. The main intraday target is the closest support at 1.1122 - 1.1103, which could be a departure point for a bullish rally towards resistance at 1.1171 - 1.1198.

 

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GBP/USD: BEARS GOING TO TEST NEAREST SUPPORT

06:33 18.05.2017

 

1495088938-79a3c4a99371c2eb6d803fd966998

 

The price is consolidating along the 55 Moving Average. It's likely that the pair is going to test support at 1.2945 - 1.2913 in the short term. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to reach resistance at 1.2995 - 1.3023.

 

1495088938-dbd135dd19209c0eb7adbeefafe5e

 

There's a consolidation, which is taking place under resistance at 1.2988. The 34 Moving Average is acting as support. In this case, the market is likely going to decline towards the 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.2988 - 1.3023 as an intraday target.

 

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EURO SOARED AMID WHITE HOUSE TURMOIL. WILL BE THERE A CONTINUATION OF THE RALLY?

08:53 18.05.2017

 

EUR/USD hit 1.1173 level overnight amid concerns over US President Donald Trump’s future following the reports that he tried to interfere with a federal investigation (that he obstructed justice). Some of the Republicans and Democrats called on Wednesday for an independent probe for possible collusion between Trump’s election campaign and Russian authorities. As a result, a former chief Robert Mueller was appointed to investigate the following case.

The euro rally has started following the final round of the French presidential elections as soon as hedge funds and investors opened some fresh long positions. European data continues to be broadly positive, reinforced with German ZEW Economic sentiment index rising to 20.6 from 19.5, Eurozone trade balance figures coming with a surplus, and flat CPI figures. Abating political risk and strong economic fundamentals gave a rise to speculation that the ECB will slightly alter its current dovish guidance at its June meeting by removing the word “or lower” from the pledge to stay on hold or adopt lower rate for the upcoming future.

The recent forecasts from major banks are almost all bullish on the euro.

ABN AMRO Bank gives 5 reasons for the further extension of the recent euro gains.

Fed’s rate hike in June is fully discounted and hike in September is only 50% priced in.

The market participants are waiting for the ECB’s announcement of QE taper that should support the euro in the future.

The allegations against Trump will still present in the headlines. The end of the reflation trade.

More squaring of net-long USD positions.

The technical picture has become more negative. US dollar index moved below the 200-da MA and EUR/USD above this technical level.

ING Bank analysts also believe that euro will be supported in the near-term as investors:

Try to determine the true value of the euro (whether it is still undervalued);

Prepare for a shift in the ECB’s monetary policy stance from extremely dovish to a more hawkish/neutral.

Use the euro as a safe haven to hedge Trump political risk.

Strategists from Danske bank note that the euro lost its shine in the early trades of May 18. EUR/USD looks extremely oversold from the technical view, that is why prices started sliding back. Despite the following decline, Danske analysts are still bullish on EUR/USD. They believe that the pair might have further legs in coming days due to the actions of speculators.

Commerzbank is also long the EUR/USD. It believes that the euro has potential to climb towards 1.1300. The immediate resistance can be found at 1.1200 (23.6% Fibo retracement level of the move down from the 2014 peak at 1.3995).  

ANZ FX Research analysts are the only ones who are still skeptical about the further EUR appreciations. They argue that the current strengthening of the single currency is short lived. In the medium term, it is poised to weakening as the ECB may be very slow to change its policy direction pointing out at an absence of underlying inflation and wage pressures.

 

 

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EUR/USD: PULLBACK FROM 7/8 MM LEVEL

10:59 18.05.2017

 

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Bulls have gone through 7/8 MM Level, but the price came back to this line. So, if we see the market below 7/8 in the coming hours, there'll be an opportunity to have an impulse in wave (i). In this case, we should keep an eye on 6/8 MM Level as an intraday bearish target.

 

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There's a pullback from 7/8 MM Level, so wave © of [y] may have been formed. Also, we've got a downward impulse in wave i, so bears are likely going to deliver another impulse in wave iii of (i) soon.

 

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EUR/USD: "EVENING STAR" AT THE LAST HIGH

12:37 18.05.2017

 

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There's an "Evening Star", so the lower "Window" is likely going to act as support. However, bulls will probably try to test the last high once again firstly.

 

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We've got a "High Wave" at the local low, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. So, we could have an intraday upward price movement. At the same time, if any bearish pattern arrives afterwards, the market is likely going to test the Moving Averages.

 

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USD/JPY: BEARS STILL IN THE GAME

12:40 18.05.2017

 

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There isn't any reversal pattern so far, which means the nearest support level is likely going to be tested once again. If any bullish pattern arrives later on, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the Moving Averages.

 

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We've got an "Inverted Hammer", but this pattern hasn't been confirmed yet. Therefore, the upper "Window" is likely going to act as resistance in the coming hours. If so, we could have another decline.

 

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AUD/USD: AUSSIE BOUNCED FROM SSB

05:12 19.05.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7370, 0.7400/10; resistance – 0.7450.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 0.7430; SL — 0.7410; TP1 — 0.7470; TP2 — 0.7500.

Sell — 0.7400; SL — 0.7420; TP1 — 0.7340; TP2 — 0.7310.

Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A and horizontal Senkou Span B; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen.

 

1495170730-42a68b4bfa2f0515dfbaa054e9dba

 

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USD/JPY: SSB IS UNDER ATTACK

05:14 19.05.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 111.00, 110.15; resistance – 111.70.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 111.70; SL — 111.90; TP1 — 111.00; TP2 — 110.15.

Buy — 111.20; SL — 111.00; TP1 — 111.70.

Reason: neutral Ichimoku Cloud, Senkou Span A and B have a same value; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, falling Tenkan-sen; the prices are on Senkou Span B.

 

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MORNING BRIEF FOR MAY 19

05:48 19.05.2017

 

Strong economic indicators from the US lifted the dollar overnight. US initial for unemployment claims fell to 232K vs estimate of 240K. The Philadelphia Fed business outlook index for May came much higher at 38.8 vs previous 18.5.  The Political news also helped to send the dollar higher. The former FBI director James Comey in his testimony claimed that he had not been pressured for political purposes to close an investigation.  It seems that Mr. Trump would be off the hook unless the Special Counsel investigations uncover some evidence of a collision between his election campaign and Russian entities.

In the course of the Asian session, the USD surrendered some of its earlier gains. We got some of the geopolitical news from Asian region: a second US carrier is being moved in close to North Korea for exercises; China intercepted a US Air Force plane over the yellow Sea.

USD/JPY slipped to 111.40 in the Asian session amid geopolitical tensions near the Korean peninsula. Further USD losses are not ruled out until it manages to hit 111.90. The solid support can be found at around 110.20.

EUR/USD ticked higher to 1.1115 in Tokyo morning. The single currency is getting some support from an emerging view that ECB might remove its current monetary policy stimulus (start gradually winding down its QE program). Bundesbank President Jens Weidman noted that political risks diminished following the euro-pleasant outcome of UK deal.  Tonight, traders should focus on three speeches from several ECB officials. They might give us some details on whether ECB is ready to wind down its balance sheet.

Aussie posted some modest gains against USD. AUD/USD rose to 0.3230 in the Asian session. The recent AUD’s upsurge has room to extend higher to 0.7480. Until the solid support at 0.6970 is still intact. We would remain bearish on USD.

USD/CAD is trading sideways within a range of 1.3570 – 1.3667. It skipped a few point in today’s session. At the present moment, prices are hovering around 1.3590 level. Today’s focus will be on the Canadian inflation and retail sales figures. Brent and WTI futures are a bit higher ahead of the OPEC meeting scheduled for next Thursday. The oil producing countries will discuss extension of the output cut deal.

 

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GOLD: BEARS CAME UP WITH SHARK

06:11 19.05.2017

 

Recommendation: BUY $1265 SL $1245 TP $1320.

On the daily chart of gold, the bulls make desperate attempts to return to the borders of the rising trading channel. If they succeed, it will lead to the continuation of the rally. A signal will be a breakout of the upper boundary of the triangle. In contrast, a failure of the quotes to leave the borders of the downward trading channel will be a signal of the weakness of the buyers. 

 

Screenshot_2017_05_19_08_02_11.png

 

On the hourly chart of gold, the "Shark" pattern has been formed. Its transformation into 5-0 implies a price rise towards $1255 per ounce, followed by a downfall towards $1233. A signal for sales could be a breakout of the support at $1245.

 

Screenshot_2017_05_19_08_02_25.png

 

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GBP/USD: BEARS HOLD THE LINE

06:13 19.05.2017

 

Recommendations:

SELL 1,297 SL 1,3025 TP1 1,286 TP2 1,278,

SELL 1,299 SL 1,3035 TP1 1,286 TP2 1,278.

On the GBP/USD daily chart, quotes are moving within the borders of the upward trading channel. A break of its lower border might lead to the return of the pound to the previous consolidation range of 1,277-1,286. In contrast, the update of the May high will allow the bulls to fulfill 161.8% target of the AB = CD pattern.

 

Screenshot_2017_05_19_08_02_42.png

 

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, there is a transformation of the daughter  "Shark" pattern into 5-0. If the bears manage to hold the resistances at 1.297 and 1.299, the subsequent breakout of the lower border of the upward trading channel may lead to the realization of parent "Shark" pattern.

 

Screenshot_2017_05_19_08_02_57.png

 

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