riki143 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 GBP/USD: WILL THE POUND LEAVE THE LEDGE? 06:57 27.04.2017 On the GBP/USD daily chart, "bulls" are trying to implement the "Splash and ledge" pattern. If they succeed, the risks of continuation of the rally towards 161.8% target in the AB = CD pattern will increase. In contrast, a move of quotes to the middle level of the 1.2770 - 1.2860 trading range can lead to the formation of "Shakeout-fakeout" pattern and development of the correction to the current uptrend. On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the failure of buyers to move higher will be a sign of their weakness. It might also lead to the formation of the expanding wedge reversal pattern, More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp%2fusd%3a_will_the_pound_leave_the_ledge%3f_746 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 EUR/JPY: BULLS WON THE BATTLE 06:59 27.04.2017 Recommendations: BUY 119,25 SL 118,70 TP 121, BUY 122 SL 121,45 TP 124. On the EUR/JPYdaily chart, after reaching 161.8% target in AB = CD pattern and breaking the upper border of the downward channel, "bulls" managed to restore uptrend. it is confirmed by the return of quotes to 88.6% level of the CD wave. To continue the rally, the bulls need to update the April high. If the "bears" manage to send the euro below 121.2 and implement the doji bar, the risk for correction will increase. Nevertheless, the buyers will still remain their control over the pair. On the EUR/JPY hourly chart, the implementation of the downward triangle will create the prerequisites for the correction towards 119.25. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur%2fjpy%3a_bulls_won_the_battle_747 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 5 NEAR-TERM RISKS TO OIL PRICES 10:43 27.04.2017 US crude oil inventories have finally started to decline. The Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that domestic-crude supplies fell 3.6 million barrels for the week ended April 21—the largest drop so far this year. The oil supply/demand equilibrium might tip into a deficit soon. That will definitely lift the oil prices. But as you probably know we always manage to find a fly in the ointment. So, we did it this time. Here is the lilt of the countries that won’t allow OPEC to bolster oil prices by curbing supplies. Venezuela The outlook for Venezuela’s economy was downgraded after oil prices collapsed in 2014. Since then the situation has deteriorated; as a result of Chavez’s and his predecessor Maduro’s policies, Venezuela’s socioeconomic status declined, with inflation, bribery, poverty and hunger increasing. The present situation in Venezuela’s capital Carcas has the feel of some sort of a final stage for Maduro’s rule. Oil production dropped 10% last year, and it seems like it is going to fall this year too. In case of a government shutdown, political protests and total collapse of Venezuela society, the oil market will lose a substantial share of oil supply. If the political risks recede, and Venezuela’s oil industry pick up, it will a substantial drag for oil prices. Libya This North African oil producing country is struggling to recover from years of conflict between government and militias. Its oil field used to produce 1.6 mln barrels before the outburst of political crisis in 2011. The country was allowed to be exempted from OPEC output cut deal. It was producing 490,000 barrels a day with Sharara pumping about 213,000 barrels. Sharara isn’t operating at the present moment because of a valve closure on April 9. So, if outages in Lybia persist, and the largest oil industry doesn’t reopen, it will be a significant boost for oil prices. In case of revival of the Libya’s national oil industry (currently targeting 1.2 mb per day by the end of 2017) will have a truly depressive impact on oil prices. Nigeria This African country is also exempted from the OPEC cuts, and like Libya it also represents both downside and upside risks to the oil market. In 2016, Nigeria made lots of headlines beacuse of the streak of attack on pipelines from the Niger Delta avengers demanding that all international oil companies leave the region. The attacks inflicted a great damage on Nigeria’s oil infrastructure (the 300,000 bpd Forcados export terminal is still offline). The oil production slumped to a three-deacde low following the incidents. The upside potential in Nigeria is more limited than in Lybia, but the downside risk for oil prices is still in place, as the Avengers backed off. US drillers The imminent comeback of the US shale industry might put additional pressure on oil prices. The Energy Information Administration registered an increase in US oil production by almost 300,000 barrels per day in 2017. The output could grow by additional 400, 000 barrels per day by the end of December. Russia Russia’s drilling activity is believed to be the largest short-term catalyst to global supplies and oil prices. The extension of OPEC cuts depends on the agreement of this country – one of the largest oil producers in the world. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/5_near_term_risks_to_oil_prices__749 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 EUR/USD: WAVE (IV) STARTED 11:56 27.04.2017 Wave (iii) has been ended on 7/8 MM Level, so it’s time for correction. In this case, bears are likely going to form wave (iv) in the short term. The main intraday target is 4/8 MM Level. We’ve got a pullback from 7/8 MM Level on the one-hour chart as well. So, there’s an opportunity to have wave a or w soon. Therefore, we should keep an eye on 5/8 MM Level as an intraday target. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur%2fusd%3a_wave_%28iv%29_started_751 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 USD/CAD, USD/MXN: WHAT HAPPENS WHEN TRUMP CHANGES HIS MIND 12:18 27.04.2017 Mexican Peso and loonie made intraday reversals after President Donald Trump said he wasn’t going to terminate NAFTA at this time, just a day after his administration had been considering an executive order exiting this trade union as early as Trump’s 100th day in office. The White House reported that Donald Trump spoke by phone with Mexican nation’s leader Pena Nieto and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau and agreed to hold off on a swift termination of NAFTA treaty. It was described as a pleasant and productive conversation in the WH release. USD/CAD advanced to 1.3620 earlier this week after Trump’s administration imposed new duties on lumber imports from Canada and pledged to defend US farmers against dairy protection measures enacted in its neighbor. On Tuesday, the USD extended its gains as US government was considering the introduction of an executive order to end NAFTA. In Tokyo morning, USD/CAD retreated from its high around 1.3645 and found a solid support at 1.3527. As long as the pair stays above 1.3410 the prices main renew their strengths and rise higher towards 1.3570-75 area, or towards a very strong resistance near the 1.3600 handle. There is a golden cross with the 50-day MA crossing the 200-day MA pointing out at the probability of further upside pressures. The Mexican peso has suffered the most on Tuesday on the talk of preparing an executive order on withdrawing out of NAFTA. Trump has repeatedly vowed to pull out of the 23-year old predatory trade deal and renegotiate it with better terms of US. He was accusing Mexicans of destroying US jobs; he wanted to build a wall on the border with Mexico. No wonder, the Mexican peso has been on a roller-coaster ride since Trump’s election victory. USD/MXN spiked to 19.28 overnight. In the Asian session, the pair recouped its losses having slid to 18.90. The MXN may well extend its gains towards the solid support around 18.45. A move above 19.30 (yesterday’s high) will indicate that the USD managed to regain its strength and that it is ready to test a resistance at 19.60 (200-day MA). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd%2fcad%2c_usd%2fmxn%3a_what_happens_when_trump_changes_his_mind_752 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 EUR/USD: "WINDOW" GOING TO ACT AS SUPPORT AGAIN 13:00 27.04.2017 We’ve got a “Tweezers” pattern at the last high. Considering a confirmation of this pattern, the market is likely going to test the nearest “Window”, which could act as a support. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish rally. There’s a “High Wave” on the 34 Moving Average. However, we’ve got a “Shooting Star”, which has been confirmed. In this case, the pair is likely going to break the last low during the day. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur%2fusd%3a_%22window%22_going_to_act_as_support_again_753 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 USD/JPY: "ENGULFING" PUSHING PRICE TOWARDS "WINDOW" 13:04 27.04.2017 There’s a bearish “Engulfing”, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. Therefore, the price is likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average. If we see a pullback from this line, bulls are likely going to deliver a new local high. The lower “Window” has acted as a support, but the last bearish “Engulfing” pattern is still on the table. Under this circumstances, the pair is likely going to test the “Window” once again during the day. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd%2fjpy%3a_%22engulfing%22_pushing_price_towards_%22window%22_754 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 GBP/USD: "V-TOP" PUSHING PRICE LOWER 06:56 27.04.2017 The price is consolidating between the levels 1.2911 – 1.2773. Considering the last “V-Top” pattern, the market is likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.2726. If a pullback from this level be on the table, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.2816 – 1.2865. There’s a consolidation, which is taking place above the broken “Pennant”. So, bulls are likely going to reach a resistance at 1.2900 – 1.2911 during the day. Meanwhile, if we see a pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to test the 89 Moving Average. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp%2fusd%3a_%22v_top%22_pushing_price_lower_745 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 GBP/USD: TESTING HIGHS AGAIN 05:32 28.04.2017 Technical levels: support – 1.2810; resistance – 1.2900, 1.2950. Trade recommendations: 1. Buy — 1.2900; SL — 1.2880; TP1 — 1.2950; TP2 — 1.2980. Reason: expanding bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are under strong resistance. More: [url=https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp%2fusd%3a_testing_highs_again_761]https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp%2fusd%3a_testing_highs_again_761[/img] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 USD/JPY: TRADING IN TENKAN-KINJUN 05:34 28.04.2017 Technical levels: support – 110.80, 110.50; resistance – 111.50. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 111.10; SL — 111.30; TP1 — 110.50; TP2 — 110.10. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the market entered in channel of Tenkan-sen and Kijun. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd%2fjpy%3a_trading_in_tenkan_kinjun_762 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 MORNING BRIEF FOR APRIL 28 06:27 28.04.2017 The ECB monetary policy meeting and Draghi’s press conference were in the spotlight yesterday. The Governing Council of the bank left its interest rates unchanged having pledged to maintain them at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. ECB policymakers confirmed that the net asset purchases at the current monthly pace of €60 billion are expected to run until the end of December 2017 or beyond if necessary. The ECB President Mario Draghi acknowledged the strengthening of the euro zone economy. Having glued eyes to his script, he spoke of moving to a more balanced growth configuration, although risks are still tilted to the downside. He retained his dovish rhetoric but noted some improvement in the balance of growth risks. The risk of deflation disappeared; the inflation figures will be rising but at a quite slow pace. The easing bias is related to inflation figures which are quite low at the present moment. The euro slipped to 1.0860 on the ECB’s dovishness. Yesterday’s weak closing had dented upward momentum, but it doesn’t mean that we should wait for a further slide. As long as 1.0830 is intact, we will anticipate a test of the psychologically important level of 1.1000. Today’s focus will be on the Eurozone inflation figures that are expected to pick up. The euro might positively react to the upticks, but we shouldn't wait for substantial moves. USD/JPY is trading near 111.15. There were a great many of economic releases out of Japan (March industrial production, retail sales/overall household spending, and monthly labor market reports). The main takeaway from the data – a modest recovery of Japan’s economy is continuing, yet inflation figures refuse to budge. The yen’s reaction was subdued to this data. Most likely, USD/JPY will continue trading sideways for another couple of trading sessions, pushing towards the resistance at 112.20. Escalation of the conflict in North Korea may offer some support to Japan’s currency and send USD/JPY towards 110.00. US President Trump said on Thursday there is a change for the US and their allies ending up with “a major, major conflict” with North Korea. But the American President himself would prefer a diplomatic outcome to the dispute. In the interview to Reuters journalists, Donald Trump also tried to defend his one-page tax plan released on Wednesday from criticism that it could increase the US deficit saying that better trading deals with US partners would definitely offset costs. US Congress will have to pass a bill to fund the government or face a shutdown this Saturday. The Democrats might refuse to fund extravagant government operations. If there is a shutdown, the US dollar will be affected on Monday next week. Today’s focus will be on the advanced US GDP growth figures that might send the USD lower (if it is lower than the consensus forecast). Also, tonight we will receive the monthly update of the April UoM Consumer Sentiment figures. Some of the traders will be interested to hear Fed's Governor Brainard and President Harker (both are current voters in the FOMC) speaking at 8:15 and 9:30 pm MT time respectively. GBP/USD went a little higher in the Asian session. Now it is above 1.2900. The pound watchers should be concentrated on the release of the preliminary UK GDP figures. The growth of 0.4% is the consensus forecast for this quarter, an increase that would see year-to-year growth hitting 2.2%. If the data is strong, we will see GBP advancing towards the resistance at 1.2950. But the upward momentum is not really strong, so there might be some pullbacks towards 1.2800, 1.2760. [More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_april_28__763 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 NZD/USD: KIWI CATCHES UP WITH THE BAT 06:43 28.04.2017 Recommendation: SELL 0,6915 SL 0,697 TP 0,68. On the NZD/USD daily chart, the quotes' exit from the consolidation range of 0.6980-0.7050 and from the triangle allowed the bears to restore the downtrend. Targets in the AB = CD and Bat patterns located in the area of 0.675-0.68 are still relevant. It makes us believe that the downward momentum is strong enough. On the NZD/USD hourly chart, there is a stable downtrend. As long as quotes are below the resistance area of 0.6915-0.6925, the sellers remain their control over the pair. In this situation, you should consider opening short positions on the quotes' growth, or on the update of the previously hit lows. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzd%2fusd%3a_kiwi_catches_up_with_the_bat_764 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 USD/JPY: WEDGE STOPPED THE BULLS 06:44 28.04.2017 Recommendations: SELL 110,9 SL 111,45 TP 109,6, BUY 111,6 SL 111,05 TP 112,8. On the USD/JPY daily chart, the bulls faced the resistance at 111.55. If it is tested successfully, there will be the continuation of the rally and the implementation of the targets in the"Wolf Waves" pattern. The nearest important support can be found near 110.5. On the USD/JPY hourly chart, the expanding wedge pattern was formed, then, the pair moved into the consolidation phase. To restore the uptrend, a test of the strong resistance at 111.6 is needed. In contrast, a drop of quotes below the support at 110.9 will lead to the development of the correction. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd%2fjpy%3a_wedge_stopped_the_bulls_765 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 EUR/USD: BEARS GOING TO TEST MOVING AVERAGES 07:40 28.04.2017 The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.0951. Also, there’s a possible “Triple Top” pattern, so the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support at 1.0819 – 1.0729. If we see a pullback from this area, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement towards a resistance at 1.0851 – 1.0855. There’s a consolidation between the 34 & 55 Moving Averages. Therefore, the price is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.0905 during the day. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to test the 89 Moving Average afterwards. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur%2fusd%3a_bears_going_to_test_moving_averages_768 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 GBP/USD: BULLS GOING TO CLIMB EVEN HIGHER 07:44 28.04.2017 The last “Pennant” pattern led to a new high. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2945 – 1.2995 in the short term. However, if bulls be stopped here, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction towards a support at 1.2865 – 1.2816. The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.2945. It’s likely that bears are going to test the nearest support at 1.2900 – 1.2865. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an option to have another bullish rally in the direction of the next resistance at 1.2935 – 1.2952. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp%2fusd%3a_bulls_going_to_climb_even_higher_769 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 USD/JPY: OUTLOOK FOR MAY 1-5 11:19 28.04.2017 USD/JPY hit 111.75 in the beginning of the past week boosted by a market-friendly first round French election result. Then, USD erased some of its gains following the release of one-page Trump's tax plan. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan released its monetary policy statement. Policymakers kept their interest rate and long-term yield target unchanged pledging to maintain its massive monetary stimulus until inflation rises to 2%. A flood of first-tier data the day after the Bank of Japan’s meeting indicated that the modest recovery in Japan’s economy is continuing, yet inflation is still low. USD/JPY stayed almost untouched following the data releases. Next week the US dollar will be a bellwether of the pair since yen’s economic calendar is extremely light. Japan’s banks will be on holidays from Wednesday to Friday. On Monday, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will speak at the Milken Conference. His remarks have become proven market drivers since Trump’s inauguration, so you should probably cast a glance at the headlines of his speech. The Fed’s rate announcement and US labor market report will be in the spotlight next week. Markets don’t expect significant changes from the Fed’s policymakers this time. US NFP, unemployment rate, and wage growth are expected to produce a greater effect. Being overwhelmed with the US events and economic releases, don’t overlook the BoJ’s annual inflation figures coming on Tuesday. On the USD/JPY technical chart, the short-term consolidation phase is still intact. 50-day SMA located near 111.80 might once again attract buying interest. If quotes manage to clear this hurdle, there will be a continuation of the rally towards 113.40, 114.00. The downside potential is limited to 109.90 (100-H4 MA). In case of the US government shutdown, escalation of global tensions, or disappointing economic figures, the quotes might slide towards 109.90, 109.10 levels. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd%2fjpy%3a_outlook_for_may_1_5_770 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 EUR/USD: "EVENING STAR" STOPPED BULLS 12:41 28.04.2017 The price has reached the nearest resistance area, but there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have a local correction in the short term. Nevertheless, bulls are likely going to continue pushing the market even higher until any bearish pattern arrives. The 55 Moving Average has acted as a support, so the price is rising. At the same time, we’ve got an “Evening Star”, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. In this case, bears are likely going to test the closest support, which could be a departure point for another bullish price movement. More: [urlhttps://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur%2fusd%3a_%22evening_star%22_stopped_bulls_771]https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur%2fusd%3a_%22evening_star%22_stopped_bulls_771[/url] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 GBP/USD: OUTLOOK FOR MAY 1-5 12:41 28.04.2017 The British pound spiked to 1.2940 despite a disappointing UK GDP figures for the first quarter of 2017. Although GBP is overbought it has room for an extension to 1.2950 in the short term. In the longer term, the upward momentum might disappear as soon as the Brexit negotiations play out. GBP/USD currency pair regained its ground after UK Prime Minister Theresa May surprised markets by calling a snap general election on June 8. While the election might strengthen the Conservative party’s position it will be extremely challenging for the UK to get a satisfactory agreement in the talks. German Chancellor Angela Merkel laid down a tough line for Brexit talks with the UK striving to remind Britain that it can’t expect a soft Brexit. A summit of EU leaders to conclude their response to the UK’s notification of exit will be held on April 29. So, the pound might be hurt on Monday in the early hours of the Asian session. In terms of economic data, we will be waiting UK manufacturing and construction purchasing managers’ indexes in the beginning of the week. The main focus will be on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and Friday’s labor market report from the US. The Fed is widely expected stay on hold. So, the USD shouldn’t experience significant changes. NFP, unemployment rate and wage growth figures might bring some moves to the chart. On the GBP/USD technical chart, we might notice that Splash and ledge pattern was implemented. Prices broke the upper border of the ledge (1.2900) and moved higher towards 1.2950 There is a small room for extension towards 1.3000/1.3020. The current upward momentum shouldn’t last long, though. Stochastic is trading in the overbought area for a long period of time. So, we will be waiting for some pullbacks towards the recent resistance levels, or lower, towards 1.2800, 1.2750 levels. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp%2fusd%3a_outlook_for_may_1_5_772 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 AUD/USD OUTLOOK FOR MAY 1-5 12:43 28.04.2017 Aussie declined from 0.7585 to 0.7440 in the course of the past week following the disappointing outcome for CPI figures. Annual core inflation data accelerated to just below the lower end of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target underscoring its decision not to change its current loose monetary policy. Next week, the RBA is set to deliver its rate and monetary policy statements on Tuesday and Friday accordingly. The bank’s policymakers are expected to stay on hold fearing that additional cuts could further inflame east coast house prices. Another concern of the bank’s officials is a pronounced slack of Australia’s labor market. Keep an eye on China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI releases coming this Sunday. Disappointing updates might hurt the Aussie. The US dollar will have a very busy calendar next week with Fed’s rate announcement on Wednesday and US labor market report on Friday. The Aussie was trading rangebound in the last two days consolidating after the sharp fall that started on Monday. While oversold, it might slide lower towards 0.7440 (April 27 low), or towards the solid support at 0.7400. If upper border of 0.7438 – 0.7490 consolidation range is broken, the quotes will rise higher towards 0.7515, 0.7550 levels. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud%2fusd_outlook_for_may_1_5_773 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 USD/JPY: STRONG "WINDOW" 12:45 28.04.2017 The last “Engulfing” pattern is still unconfirmed. So, the 89 Moving Average is likely going to act as a support. If a pullback from this line happens, bulls will probably try to test the upper “Window” There’s a strong support by the lower “Window”. However, we’ve got a “Tweezers” and an “Engulfing” patterns, which both are still on the table. Under this circumstances, bears are likely going to test the “Window” once again. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd%2fjpy%3a_strong_%22window%22_774 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 EUR/USD: BEARISH WAVE (IV) ABOUT TO START 12:51 28.04.2017 The price is testing 7/8 MM Level, which previously has acted as a resistance. So, wave (iii) is likely going to end soon. If the market finds a lodgment under 7/8 MM Level later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction. As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (iii) is taking form of a double zigzag. In this case, wave [C] of y is likely going to end soon. Therefore, we could have wave a or w in the short term, so we should keep an eye on 5/8 MM Level as an intraday bearish target. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur%2fusd%3a_bearish_wave_%28iv%29_about_to_start_775 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 US DOLLAR: OUTLOOK FOR MAY 1-5 12:53 28.04.2017 The US dollar opened the week with a bearish gap formed on the first round of French presidential election. Donald Trump has lived through the first 100 years of presidency. His tax plan has disappointed investors with its lack of details. In addition, the markets are skeptical that any comprehensive tax changes will be approved by the Congress. Canadian dollar and Mexican peso strengthened versus their US counterpart on the news that the United States doesn’t immediately plan to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement. As for the geopolitical tensions, Trump said that a major conflict with North Korea is possible, but he would prefer a diplomatic outcome to the dispute. There may be more headlines on this topic in future. In the meantime, US GDP growth has slowed down to 0.7% in the first quarter. American economic calendar is packed with important events. On Monday, we’ll hear from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. The US will release core PCE price index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, as well as ISM manufacturing PMI. On Wednesday don’t miss ADP non-farm employment change and ISM services PMI. In addition, there will be a meeting of the Federal Reserve. The press conference is not scheduled and the market is not expecting a rate hike. On Thursday, the US will release unemployment claims, trade balance, and factory orders. Then there will be the first Friday of the month, which is usually volatile because of NFP release. The US dollar index held above the 50-week MA at 98.45, but is now below the former support line from 2016 lows and below 200-day MA. Return above 99.30 is needed for the bulls to return. The next stops will likely be 100.00 and 100.45. Otherwise, bearish pressure will intensify with the greenback remaining vulnerable for a decline to 97.55 (100-week MA, July 2016 highs). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/us_dollar%3a_outlook_for_may_1_5_776 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 EUR/USD: OUTLOOK FOR MAY 1-5 13:14 28.04.2017 EUR/USD opened the week with a bullish gap on the news that a pro-European candidate Emmanuel Marcon won the most votes in the first round of French presidential election. In the second round of the vote on May 7 Macron is expected to win against the Eurosceptic Marine Le Pen. Already at this point, many think that the European political risks have diminished. This is a bright spot for the euro. Among other important things, we have to mention the European Central Bank’s meeting. The ECB left monetary policy unchanged. President Mario Draghi pointed out that euro zone’s recovery was increasingly solid and downside risks had diminished. On the other hand, he underlined that removal of the bank’s easing bias was not discussed, stressing the fact that inflation remains too low. This ambiguous statement led to a mixed response from the euro: the single currency declined, but later managed to pare the losses. The European economic calendar for the upcoming days is light, there are only events of medium and low importance. Among them, pay attention to the region’s preliminary Q1 GDP. Main drivers for EUR/USD will come out of the United States, where will be a lot of market-moving releases, the Federal Reserve’s meeting, and some political news. EUR/USD keeps attacking this year’s resistance line. A weekly close above the 50-week MA in the 1.0900 area will be a positive sign. The next obstacles for the bulls lie at 1.0995 (100-week MA) and 1.1057 (bottom of the daily Cloud). A significant weakness of the US dollar may bring the pair up to 1.1150. Support is at 1.0825 and 1.0770. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur%2fusd%3a_outlook_for_may_1_5_777 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 GBP/CAD BROKE RESISTANCE LEVEL 1.7540 15:31 28.04.2017 GBP/CAD broke resistance level 1.7540 Next buy target - 1.8000 GBP/CAD has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the minor accelerated impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate ©-wave from the start of April. The price earlier broke through the three consecutive resistance levels: 1.7100, 1.7240 (two previous buy targets) and 1.7540 (which reversed the previous waves 4 and (2)) GBP/CAD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.8000 (former key support level from June). Buy stop-loss can be placed below 1.7540. More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp%2fcad_broke_resistance_level_1.7540_782 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 USD/CAD REACHED BUY TARGET 1.3600 15:32 28.04.2017 USD/CAD reached buy target 1.3600 Next buy target - 1.3800 USD/CAD has been under bullish pressure lately – after the earlier breakout of the powerful resistance level 1.3600 (which reversed the previous waves 3 and (A) and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the resistance level 1.3600 accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and © – which belong to the primary ?-wave from last year. USD/CAD is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.3800 (target price for the completion of the active minor impulse wave 3). More: https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd%2fcad_reached_buy_target_1.3600_783 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.