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USD/JPY: bears sweep away all obstacles

4/12/2017

 

On the USD/JPY daily chart, the quotes moved beyond the consolidation range of 110.2-111.55. The realization of the AB = CD continues. Its target is located at 200% level of the BC wave (107.5). To hit this level, the bears will have to break the support at 108.8. The immediate resistance can be found at 110.2.

 

Screenshot_2017_04_12_07_04_20.png

 

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, quotes are moving within the downward trading channel. The bears remain their control over the pair. The AB = CD pattern with 224% target of the BC wave is still relevant. It corresponds to the level of 107.5.

 

Screenshot_2017_04_12_07_04_34.png

 

Recommendations: hold shorts (SELL 110,25 SL 110,8 TP1 109,6 TP2 108,8).

 

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AUD/USD: bears are playing with Crab

4/12/2017

 

On the AUD/USD daily chart, an intermediate 113% target in the "Crab" pattern has been fulfilled. There is a continuation of the downward movement. The targets are located near 0.7415 and 0.731. Bulls can get their own back only in case of a successful test of the resistance at 0.7525.

 

Screenshot_2017_04_12_07_04_46.png

 

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, the "Widening Wedge" pattern can be formed. A necessary condition for its formation is a successful test of the 1-3 wave (0.7515). If it is tested successfully, focus on the point 5. The pullbacks from 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50% levels and from the 4-5 wave can be used for opening long positions. The nearest resistance levels can be found near 0.7555 and 0.7585.

 

Screenshot_2017_04_12_07_04_59.png

 

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Key option levels for Wednesday, April 12th

4/12/2017

 

If you have any questions or requests fill out the feedback form.

 

EUR/USD

 

EURUSD(163).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 62 621 ? + 399 662 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.0636; 1.0678-89; 1.0721; 1.0757

Closest support levels 1.0602; 1.0576; 1.0540; 1.0518

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0602 (or from 1.0636), with target points at 1.0576 and 1.0540

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0636 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0678 and 1.0721

 

 

USD/CAD

 

USDCAD(139).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bullish

Changes in the open interest + 270 ? + 87 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.3333; 1.3378; 1.3421; 1.3477

Closest support levels 1.3289; 1.3266; 1.3233; 1.3187

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3333 (or from 1.3289), with the target points at 1.3378 and 1.3421

Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3289 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3266 and 1.3233

 

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Gold: bulls are working hard

4/13/2017

 

On the daily chart of gold, the bulls updated February high and tested the diagonal resistance in the form of the upper boundary of the downward trading channel. As a result, the AB = CD pattern was activated. Its targets are located near $1286 (127.2%), $1312 (161.8%), $1340 (200%) and $1357(224%) per ounce.

 

Screenshot_2017_04_13_07_28_14.png

 

On the hourly chart of gold, quotes are moving within the upward trading channel. The bulls remain their control over the pair. In this situation, you might consider buying on the rollbacks to the support or on the formation of longs at the break of resistance.

 

Screenshot_2017_04_13_07_28_33.png

 

Recommendations:

 

BUY $1278 SL $1263 TP1 $1312 TP2 $1340,

 

BUY $1270 SL $1255 TP $1312.

 

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USD/CAD: shakeout-fakeout pattern has been realized

4/13/2017

 

On the USD/CAD chart, a successful attack on the diagonal support in the form of the lower border of the upward trading channel activated the Gartley pattern with a target 78.6%. The convergence zone is located near 1.31. The nearest important resistance can be found at 1.3305.

 

Screenshot_2017_04_13_07_28_53.png

 

On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the "Shakeout-fakeout" pattern has been realized. Quotes fell below the lower boundary of the "Splash and ledge" pattern on the basis of 1-2-3. This tells us about the weakness of the bears and allows us to bet on the realization of the Gartley pattern. 

 

Screenshot_2017_04_13_07_29_22.png

 

Recommendation: SELL 1,328 SL 1,3335 TP 1,31.

 

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Key option levels for Thursday, April 13th

4/13/2017

 

If you have any questions or requests fill out the feedback form.

 

EUR/USD

 

EURUSD(164).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Neutral

Changes in the open interest + 33 346 ↑ + 436 130 ↑

Closest resistance levels 1.0682; 1.0715; 1.0767; 1.0803

Closest support levels 1.0620; 1.0586; 1.0561; 1.0525

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD from the current price or from 1.0682, with target points at 1.0620 and 1.0586

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0682 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0715 and 1.0767

 

 

USD/JPY

 

USDJPY(107).png

 

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 287 ↑ + 880 ↑

Closest resistance levels 109.43; 109.93; 110.39; 110.62

Closest support levels 108.97/74 (Highly important); 108.47; 108.14; 107.78

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Long USD/JPY above 108.97, with target points at 109.43 and 109.93

Alternative scenario Moving below 108.97 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 108.47 and 108.14

 

 

USD/CAD

 

USDCAD(140).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Bullish

Changes in the open interest + 9 ↑ + 29 ↑

Closest resistance levels 1.3266; 1.3324; 1.3367; 1.3408

Closest support levels 1.3236; 1.3189; 1.3129; 1.3058

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario OUT OF THE MARKET                                                                                                            

Alternative scenario OUT OF THE MARKET

 

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EUR/USD: bears are preparing for breakout

4/14/2017

 

On the EUR/USD daily chart, quotes returned to the border of the upward trading channel. There is the diagonal support. If the bears manage to test it, the update of the April low will open the way towards 1.046 and 1.0405. To regain control over the pair, the bulls will need to raise the euro above 1.0695.

 

Screenshot_2017_04_14_07_34_34.png

 

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, there was an unsuccessful return of quotes to the consolidation range of 1.0635-1.0685. Bulls showed their weakness having failed to consolidate there. As a result, a triangle was formed. A breakout of its lower border near 1.0595 will increase the risk of continuation of the downward movement.

 

Screenshot_2017_04_14_07_34_52.png

 

Recommendation: SELL 1,0595 SL 1,065 TP 1,046. 

 

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NZD/USD: kiwi came to the Rubicon

4/14/2017

 

On the NZD/USD daily chart, quotes are moving within the downward trading channel. A break of its upper border can lead to the correction towards 0.707 and higher. In contrast, if the "bears" manage to keep the New Zealand dollar below the psychologically important level of 0.7, it might lead to the continuation of the downward movement and implementation of the 113% and 161.8% targets in the Shark and AB = CD patterns.

 

Screenshot_2017_04_14_07_35_07.png

 

On the NZD/USD hourly chart, the further downward movement will depend on whether sellers manage to return quotes to within the borders of the downward trading channel. The drop of the pair below 0.697 can lead to the restoration of the downward trend.

 

Screenshot_2017_04_14_07_35_23.png

 

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Key option levels for Friday, April 14th

4/14/2017

 

If you have any questions or requests fill out the feedback form.

 

EUR/USD

 

EURUSD(165).png

 

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Neutral Neutral

Changes in the open interest - 344 590 ? - 470 131 ?

Closest resistance levels 1.0646; 1.0703; 1.0735; 1.0785

Closest support levels 1.0611; 1.0583; 1.0544; 1.0521

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0611 or from 1.0646, with target points at 1.0583 and 1.0544

Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0646 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0703 and 1.0735

 

USD/JPY

 

USDJPY(108).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bullish Bearish

Changes in the open interest + 2 816 ? + 571 ?

Closest resistance levels 109.41; 109.97; 110.25; 110.58

Closest support levels 108.53; 108.14; 107.87; 107.56

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY from the current price (108.85 at the time of publication) or from 108.53, with target points at 109.41 and 109.97

Alternative scenario Moving below 108.53 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 108.14 and 107.87

 

AUD/USD

 

AUDUSD(11).png

 

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period

Bearish Bearish

Changes in the open interest - 165 ? + 30 ?

Closest resistance levels 0.7611; 0.7651; 0.7681; 0.7717

Closest support levels 0.7557; 0.7523; 0.7496; 0.7463

Trading recommendations

Baseline scenario Short AUD/USD below 0.7557 (or from 0.7611), with the target points at 0.7523 and 0.7496

Alternative scenario Moving above 0.7611 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 0.7651 and 0.7681

 

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GBP/USD: pound is a bit cramped on the ledge

4/17/2017

 

On the GBP/USD daily chart, the realization of "Splash and ledge" pattern on the basis of 1-2-3 continues. If quotes go beyond the consolidation range 1.237-1.258 it will be a signal for the opening positions. Resistances at 1.256-1.2575 corresponds to the upper boundary of the triangle. The breakout will increase the risk of continuation of the rally towards 1.273 and 1.277.

 

Screenshot_2017_04_17_07_25_14.png

 

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, an expanding wedge pattern can be formed. For this to happen, bears need to return quotes to 1.236. A successful test of the support at 1.2495 can lead to the development of consolidation followed by the move of quotes to downsides. 

 

Screenshot_2017_04_17_07_25_29.png

 

Recommendations:

 

SELL 1,2495 SL 1,255 TP 1,236,

 

BUY 1,2575 SL 1,252 TP 1,273.

 

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EUR/JPY: euro's precipitous downfall

4/17/2017

 

On the EUR/JPY daily chart, quotes fell to the lowest level since November 2016. The previously set targets on short positions have been fulfilled. A successful test of 114.56 will increase the odds of fulfilling the target 88.6% in the Bat pattern. It is located near 113.3.

 

Screenshot_2017_04_17_07_25_42.png

 

On the EUR/JPY hourly chart, quotes are moving within the downward trading channel. The bears remain their control over the pair. In this situation, the best trading strategies would be selling on growth or opening short positions on the breakouts of supports. The nearest resistances can be found at 115.5, 115.7 and 116.

 

Screenshot_2017_04_17_07_25_56.png

 

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MORNING BRIEF FOR APRIL 17

06:24 17.04.2017

 

Sleeping Forex – the Land of Nod…The market was too sleepy to start this week with major trading centers still closed for a holiday on Monday. Markets are braced for more geopolitical tensions over North Korea, after its failure to launch a ballistic missile on Sunday. US Vice President Mike Pence fasten his eyes upon the demilitarized border between North and South Korea, reiterating that the U.S. "era of strategic patience" with Kim-Jong-un was over.

The major focus of Tokyo session was Chinese economic data. China’s economy grew 6.9% in the first quarter of 2017, a shtik above consensus forecast of 6.8%, supported by a government generous infrastructure spending spree and a frenzied housing market.  Overall, a raft of the data failed to produce a notable effect as investors were somewhat cognizant of an upbeat print following a recent range of positive figures from China.

The yen extended its gains amid the escalation in geopolitical tensions. USD/JPY tumbled below 108.35 in the early hours of today’s session. The odds that quotes slide lower towards 108.00, 107.50 are quite high as the bearish phase is still intact.

The euro edged down to 1.0620 on the session. Ahead of the first round of French presidential elections scheduled for April 23, Le Pen is slowly fading with the rest of the front-runner generally unchanged. Macron, Fillon, and Melenchon are snapping on her heels striving to chase Marin out of her place as a leader in the pre-election race. EUR/USD has moved into consolidation phase trading between 1.0555 and 1.0700 levels.

Aussie spiked to 0.75990 on the strong headline in Chinese data. China’s demand for Australia’s exported industrial commodities such as iron ore was truly strong in recent months. The current rebound is to extend higher to 0.7615, 0.7630.

GBP/USD rose slightly above 1.2530. The British pound has scope to extend its gain to at least 1.2615.

USD/CAD slipped a few point in the Asian session thanks to weakening USD. Oil prices weren’t supportive. Brent oil futures fell to $55.40 from $55.80 on Monday on signs the expanding US oil production industry, undermining OPEC efforts to support prices and reduce oil glut.

The Turkish lira jumped to 3.6800 against the greenback after President Tayyip Erdogan snatched a victory in a referendum on Sunday that was organized in order to replace Turkey’s parliamentary system with the presidency and abolish the post of prime minister.

 

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GBP/USD: MOVING AVERAGE WAITING FOR BEARS

06:34 17.04.2017

 

17-4-2017-GBP-H4.png

 

The price faced a support at 1.2506, so there’s a consolidation, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for an upward correction towards a resistance at 1.2595 – 1.2614.

 

17-4-2017-GBP-H1.png

 

The 34 Moving Average has acted as a support, so the price is consolidating. In this case, bears are likely going to reach the 55 Moving Average during the day. If a pullback from this line be on the table, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new local high. The main bullish target is a resistance at 1.2573 – 1.2595.

 

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EUR/USD: "DOUBLE TOP" STILL PUSHING PRICE LOWER

06:29 17.04.2017

 

17-4-2017-EUR-H4.png

 

The main trend is still bearish. The price faced a support at 1.0600, so there’s a developing upward correction. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.0571 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, we should keep an eye on the nearest resistance at 1.0655 as an intraday bullish target. 

 

17-4-2017-EUR-H1.png

 

The price is testing the downtrend, which is likely going to be broken in the coming hours. So, the main intraday target is a support at 1.0588 – 1.0578. If we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to achieve the closest resistance at 1.0594 – 1.0655.

 

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EUR/JPY: EURO'S PRECIPITOUS DOWNFALL

06:49 17.04.2017

 

On the EUR/JPY daily chart, quotes fell to the lowest level since November 2016. The previously set targets on short positions have been fulfilled. A successful test of 114.56 will increase the odds of fulfilling the target 88.6% in the Bat pattern. It is located near 113.3.

 

Screenshot_2017_04_17_07_25_42.png

 

On the EUR/JPY hourly chart, quotes are moving within the downward trading channel. The bears remain their control over the pair. In this situation, the best trading strategies would be selling on growth or opening short positions on the breakouts of supports. The nearest resistances can be found at 115.5, 115.7 and 116.

 

Screenshot_2017_04_17_07_25_56.png

 

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GBP/USD: POUND IS A BIT CRAMPED ON THE LEDGE

06:52 17.04.2017

 

On the GBP/USD daily chart, the realization of "Splash and ledge" pattern on the basis of 1-2-3 continues. If quotes go beyond the consolidation range 1.237-1.258 it will be a signal for the opening positions. Resistances at 1.256-1.2575 corresponds to the upper boundary of the triangle. The breakout will increase the risk of continuation of the rally towards 1.273 and 1.277.

 

Screenshot_2017_04_17_07_25_14.png

 

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, an expanding wedge pattern can be formed. For this to happen, bears need to return quotes to 1.236. A successful test of the support at 1.2495 can lead to the development of consolidation followed by the move of quotes to downsides. 

 

Screenshot_2017_04_17_07_25_29.png

 

Recommendations:

SELL 1,2495 SL 1,255 TP 1,236,

BUY 1,2575 SL 1,252 TP 1,273.

 

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EUR/USD: EURO SUPPORTED BY SENKOU SPAN B

07:12 17.04.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 1.0600; resistance – 1.0660, 1.0715.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0620; SL — 1.0600; TP1 — 1.0660; TP2 – 1.0715.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the lines are in a same value; the prices are supported by bottom border of the Cloud.

 

5kvTjJHUt.png

 

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GBP/USD: POUND IS UNDER STRONG RESISTANCE

07:17 17.04.2017

 

Technical levels: support – 1.2530; resistance – 1.2550, 1.2590.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.2550; SL — 1.2570; TP1 — 1.2430; TP2 — 1.2400.

Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under daily resistance; the local market is overbought.

 

5kxowhmGh.png

 

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EUR/USD: PRICE GOING TO TEST "WINDOW" AGAIN

12:24 17.04.2017

 

1704eurusdH4.png

 

The 34 Moving Average and the upper “Window” have acted as a resistance. However, there isn’t any bearish pattern, so the market is likely going to test the 89 & 144 Moving Averages in the short term. If a pullback from these lines happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

 

1704eurusdH1.png

 

The last bearish “Harami” hasn’t been confirmed, but we’ve got a bullish “Three Methods” pattern. In this case, the price is likely going to test the upper “Window” once again during the day. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to find a lodgment under Moving Averages.

 

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USD/JPY: BEARS GOING TO PUSH PRICE EVEN LOWER

12:28 17.04.2017

 

1704usdjpyH4png.png

 

The main trend is still bearish. Also, there’s a “Three Methods” pattern, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the price is likely going to get a resistance on the nearest “Window”, which could be a departure point for another decline. So, we could have a new local low soon.

 

1704usdjpyH1.png

 

As you can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a local bullish “Hammer” at the last low. At the same time, if any bearish pattern arrives on the nearest resistance level in the coming hours, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

 

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OIL MARKET OVERVIEW

12:31 17.04.2017

 

Crude oil edged down in a subdued trading on Monday as investors are still digesting expansion of the US crude oil production.

Benchmark Brent crude futures fell to $55.66 from its last-week high of $56.65. US West Texas intermediate crude futures were down to $52.95 after rising to $53.75 last week.

Baker Hughes officials said on Thursday that drillers added 11 oil rigs in the week of April 13. According to the recent information of the Energy Information Administration, the US crude oil production has grown to 9.4 million barrels per day, making the US the third largest producer after Saudi Arabia and Russia. Cost-cutting technological advancements helped US firms to become more competitive in areas previously reserved solely by such large producers as BP and Exxon Mobil. Field works in Arctic lands and waters make OPEC and non-OPEC signatory parties of the output cut deal more nervous about their market shares in the futures. Despite growing opposition from numerous environmental groups and President Obama’s 2016 ban on drilling in Artic waters, exploration in Alaska managed to reveal massive volumes of oil. The following wave of Artic development might influence the oil prices in the long-term future.

Political tensions in the Middle East (airstrikes in Syria), unplanned outages in Libya resulting in the shutdown of the Sharara oil field contributed to the recent uplift in oil prices. The possibility of extension of output cut deal was an additional tailwind for crude oil futures in the past two weeks.

Next month, OPEC countries and their allies will gather together to decide whether to extend an agreement curbing oil production or not. It will be a difficult decision to make as the signatory parties are facing a lose-lose situation. If they fail to agree on the deal extension, the oil market will be oversupplied and oil prices tumble. If they manage to strike a deal, prices will likely hit higher levels offering the US oil producing industry a scope for further expansion.

So, without the cut deal, the bull market is poised to fade away, with Libya reopening its oil field after outages, geopolitical tension easing and flourishing oil industry in the US.  

 

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EUR/USD: BEARS READY FOR WAVE (III)

12:38 17.04.2017

 

Image20170417153541001.png

 

We’ve got a flat pattern in wave (ii). Also, there’s a bearish impulse in wave (i). Therefore, bears are likely going to deliver an impulse in wave (iii) in the short term. The main intraday target is -2/8 MM Level.

 

Image20170417153541002.png

 

There’s a diagonal triangle in wave c of (ii), which led to form a wedge in wave i of (iii). Wave ii is likely going to end in the coming hours. So, if a pullback from 7/8 MM Level happens, there’ll be time for wave iii of (iii).

 

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NZD/USD RISING INSIDE IMPULSE WAVE 3 AND (3)

15:39 17.04.2017

 

NZD/USD rising inside impulse wave 3 and (3)

Next buy targets - 0.7070 and 0.7130

NZD/USD continues to rise sharply inside the minor impulse wave 3, which started earlier from the strong support zone lying between the pivotal support level 0.6900 (which also reversed the price sharply in December and March, as can be seen below) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The active minor impulse wave 3 belongs to the intermediate impulse (3) of the primary impulse wave ③ from December.

NZD/USD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7070 (top of the earlier b-wave) – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 0.7130 (former monthly low from February).

 

5qkwHkhsE.png

 

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NZD/CAD REVERSED FROM POWERFUL SUPPORT ZONE

15:41 17.04.2017

 

NZD/CAD reversed from powerful support zone

Next buy target - 0.9450

NZD/CAD recently revered up sharply from the powerful support zone lying between the support levels 0.9270 and 0.9220 (which also reversed the price sharply in December and January). This support zone was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer – which started the active minor correction ii.

Given the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic indicator - NZD/CAD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9450 (top of the previous minor corrective wave ii).

 

5qpgH3N8e.png

 

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AUD/USD: Aussie chooses south

4/19/2017

 

On the AUD/USD daily chart, the failure of the bulls to test the resistance at 0.7612 was a signal of their weakness. Quotes returned to support at 0.7523. If it is tested successfully, targets 127.2% and 161.8% in the "Crab" pattern will likely be implemented.

 

Screenshot_2017_04_19_06_44_43.png

 

On the AUD/USD hourly chart, quotes are moving within the downward trading channel. The bears remain their control over the pair. Positions of big buyers are located near the 0.7515 and 0.7485 marks. If the levels are tested successfully, the sellers might count on the restoration of the downtrend. 

 

Screenshot_2017_04_19_06_45_00.png

 

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