riki143 Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Oil market overview 3/27/2017 At the weekend, a joint committee of energy ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing countries pledged to consider extending output deal cut for additional 6 months. Venezuela’s Oil Minister Nelson Martinez supported the idea of deal extension. Iraq, Algeria and Angola also said that they would back a prolongation of the deal. Mohammed Al Rumhy, energy minister of non-OPEC producer Oman, said that a further extension of the supply reducing deal looks expedient. Kuwait was the first nation calling for extension of output cut agreement. The biggest OPEC supplier Saudi Arabia has indicated that it won’t be against the prolongation of the agreement if global crude oil stockpiles remain above their five-year average. There are several factors that undermined the effectiveness of the November supply reduction deals: low seasonal demand, refinery maintenance, rising non-OPEC supply (the recent estimate of compliance rate of the non-OPEC members reached 64%). A further extension of the deal could be a rational decision once the impact of aforementioned factors is eliminated. Russia Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that the country is not ready to support a possible extension of oil-supply cuts in the second half of the year, even if the majority of oil suppliers acknowledge their contribution to the reduction of global oil stockpiles. He also said that Russia won’t make any pledges until April as it needs more time to assess the oil market, inventories and US drilling activity and non-OPEC countries’ production. This was a massive drag for oil prices. Additional factor that led to the quotes’ downfall was Baker Hughes rig count data released last Friday. It revealed that the number of active US rigs drilling for oil increased by 21. It was the tenth weekly increase in a row. Brent oil futures slumped to $50.60 in the opening hours of Monday’s session. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13013 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 EUR/USD: "Three Methods" pushing the price higher 3/27/2017 The price is still rising and there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. Also, we’ve got a new “Window”, which is likely going to act as a support soon. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new high. The last “Window” is still open. At the same time, we’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, bulls are likely going to continue pushing the market even higher until any bearish pattern arrives. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 USD/JPY: unstoppable bears 3/27/2017 The price is still declining, so we don’t have any reversal pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support in the short term. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an option to have an upward correction. We’ve got a new “Window”, which is still open. Also, there’s a “Three Methods” pattern, so the price is likely going to test the closes support level, which could be a departure point to a bullish correction. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Ed Seykota’s profile: common man with great achievements 3/27/2017 Every journalist even mediocre one without a spark of talent before writing an article should think of the structure of his future writing. And I must admit it is a rather stiff task especially when you’re challenged with writing about one man’s uneventful life vividly only in order to make a note of his great achievement. I was faced with such task when I was asked to write about Ed Seykota, a person whose life is not marked with some bright events, but whose contribution to trading activities is invaluable. So, pondering over the article’s structure, I’ve decided not to burden you with dull descriptions of Seykota’s life (in the end, I’m not a Wikipedia), but to focus only on his educational background, career and some other facts. General information Professional trader Ed Seykota is a Netherlands-born American commodity trader. He graduated with degrees in Electrical engineering from MIT and Management from the MIT Sloan School of Management. He started his experiments with trading systems in the 1970s when he had only a few punched card computers to test his genius market ideas. Career In 1960, Ed decided to go long on silver after the US Treasury stopped selling it (trend following is one of the most favorable Seykota’s trading strategies). He lost his money on this silver trade and a copper one, but learned a hard lesson about the market’s susceptibility to the news. Later on, he started working for one futures brokerage house. It was the time when he first tried his computerized trading system based on exponential moving averages. Afterwards, he decided to venture out on his own firm and manage of some of his client’s accounts. During that time, he gained eminent profits trading with the help of his computerized trading systems. The accounts Seykota managed showed an absolutely outstanding rate of return (starting with just $5,000 and earning 15, 000 000 in 12 years). Some other facts In 1992, Ed gathered a group of traders to discuss their emotions which according to Market Wizard Seykota (Jack Schwager included interview with Seykota in his famous book about the most successful traders of his time “Market Wizards”), are the key spoilers of trade. All together they managed to gather a set of common practices that help to avoid big losses and support personal growth. Seykota described them in his book The Trading Tribe 2005. Seykota prefers trading mostly from his home office generating trade signals from his computer programs. A part of his time he spends on mentoring traders through his website. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 USD/CHF reached sell target 0.9890 3/27/2017 USD/CHF reached sell target 0.9890 Next sell target - 0.9750 USD/CHF continues to fall sharply – following the earlier breakout of the pivotal support level 0.9890 (which stopped the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 in January and which was set as the sell target in our previous forecasts for this currency pair). The breakout of the support level 0.9890 intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair. USD/CHF is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 0.9750 (forecast price for the termination of the active intermediate impulse wave (1)). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 EUR/AUD broke resistance zone 3/27/2017 EUR/AUD broke resistance zone Next buy target - 1.4400 EUR/AUD continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the combined resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.4180 (which stopped the previous sharp (a)-wave earlier this month), the 100-day moving average, resistance trendline of the wide daily down channel from 2016 and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave (i) from December. EUR/AUD is expected to rise further in the active minor ABC correction (ii) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4400. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 USD/JPY: the yen is accelerating its pace 3/28/2017 On the USD/JPY daily chart, quotes returned to the borders of the downward trading channel. The bears regained control over the pair. We expect the continuation of the downward movements towards i108.8 (50% of the last long-term upward wave) and 107.7 (target 200% in the AB = CD pattern). The nearest important resistance levels can be found near 111.15 and 111.55-111.75. On the USD/CAD hourly chart, the quotes are sliding towards 161.8% and 224% targets in the AB = CD patterns (109.5-109.7). If they go out from the downward trading channel, it will lead to the correction to 111.45-111.55. Recommendation: SELL 111,55 SL 112,10 TP 109,7. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 USD/CHF: bears are heading to the south 3/28/2017 On the USD/CHFdaily chart, there is an implementation of 5-0, "Shark" and AB = CD patterns. Their 88.6% and 161.8% targets allow us to identify the convergence zone (0.9615-0.9665). In this area, the probability of a trend reversal is high. To remain control over the "bears", it is necessary to keep quotes below the 0.9855 level. On the USD/CHF hourly chart, the expanding wedge reversal pattern has been realized. After the breakouts of the supports at 0.9927 and 0.9896, the market is under the bears' control now. In such circumstances, the best strategy would be selling on the rise of quotes towards resistances at 0.995 and 0.999. Recommendation: SELL 0,995 SL 1,0005 TP1 0,982 TP2 0,9665. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 EUR/USD: euro located under daily resistance 3/28/2017 Technical levels: support – 1.0820; resistance – 1.0930. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 1.0930; SL — 1.0950; TP1 — 1.0820; TP2 – 1.0800. Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A and B; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, rising Tenkan-sen; the prices are under strong daily resistance. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13024 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 USD/JPY: Dollar may go lower 3/28/2017 Technical levels: support – 110.40, 109.90; resistance – 110.70, 111.00. Trade recommendations: 1. Sell — 110.70; SL — 111.00; TP1 — 110.40; TP2 — 109.90. Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, falling Tenkan-sen; the prices are under resistance of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13025 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Morning brief for March 28 3/28/2017 Last week, Trump’s collaborators failed to garner enough support to a piece of legislation aimed at repealing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare act) even with a Republican-controlled Congress. It raised fears among the investors over Trump’s inability to enact pro-growth policies. The US 10-year bond yield hit its month low on Monday. The US equities experienced a massive selloff. In the Tokyo morning, the investors’ anxiety over President Trump’s setback on Obamacare reform gave away; their confidence in Trump’s administration has returned. The euro spiked to its highest point since November overnight (1.0905) as we got upbeat German Ifo Survey for March. The survey was the strongest since 2011; the headline Business Climate Index printed at 112.3. Overall, German economy grew1.9% last year that is stronger than 1.6% in 2015. ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet has recently noted that Eurozone deflation risk has almost gone. He also said that at the present moment it is premature to talk about a QE exit as ECB policymakers still didn’t achieved the expected effects from their loosening policies (some of the most indebted countries use QE for more spending rather that for shrinking their debt). The economic calendar for EUR/USD is light today with US Consumer Confidence and Fed’s speaker. Aussie is still hovering around 0.7615. A pullback below 0.7600 towards the immediate support at 0.7555 will tell us about the restoration of the downtrend. On the upside, the nearest resistance can be found at around 0.7700. In the early hours of Tokyo morning, we heard Guy Debelle, the RBA Deputy Governor speaking of the FX code of conduct. There were no comments on the Australian economy, no mention of the RBA monetary measures. NZD/USD is trading below the key resistance at 38.2% Fibo level (0.7050) traced from last year low. There is a chance of the uptrend restoration. A successful test of 0.7090 will tell us about the uptrend recovery. The economic calendar is empty. GBP/USD spiked to 1.2617 overnight. In the Asian session, the British pound slid to 1.2555 as we approach the day X – a day of the formal trigger of Article 50 leading to the Britain’s withdrawal from the EU. USD/CAD gained some additional points in today’s session. The quotes rose to 1.3386. BoC Governor Poloz is speaking tonight at Durham College. We don’t expect him dropping some subtle clues on the bank’s future monetary policies. So, the speech might be a non-event for USD/CAD. In commodities, the relative weakness of the US dollar has helped oil prices to recover from their earlier losses (to $51.12). But there is a little scope for the uptrend recovery as concerns over the output cut deal are still present. The belly is not filled with fair words, but we bet you’ve already had your breakfast More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13026 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Key option levels for Tuesday, March 28th 3/28/2017 EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest -No Data- -No Data- Closest resistance levels 1.0896; 1.0927; 1.0954 Closest support levels 1.0867; 1.0831; 1.0795; 1.0774 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0867 (or from 1.0896), with target points at 1.0831 and 1.0795 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0896 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0927 and 1.0954 GBP/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bearish Changes in the open interest -No Data- -No Data- Closest resistance levels 1.2612; 1.2635; 1.2653; 1.2676 Closest support levels 1.2567; 1.2538; 1.2517; 1.2490 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long GBP/USD above 1.2612, with target points at 1.2635 and 1.2653 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.2567 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.2538 and 1.2517 USD/CAD https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/13028/USDCAD(133).png[/MG] Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bullish Changes in the open interest -No Data- -No Data- Closest resistance levels 1.3385; 1.3416; 1.3466; 1.3492; 1.3534 Closest support levels 1.3360; 1.3339; 1.3316; 1.3277 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3385, with the target points at 1.3416 and 1.3466 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3360 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3339 and 1.3316 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13028 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Trading formal Brexit trigger – Article 50 3/28/2017 General Information UK Prime Minister Theresa May is going to file divorce papers on March 29 at 14:30 MT time. This will start a two-year process for the UK to negotiate its trade terms with the EU. European Council President Donald Tusk announced that he will distribute the draft Brexit guidelines among the EU member countries within 48 hours of the UK invoking Article 50. A more detailed stance will probably be delivered later, and the official negotiations may not start until June. Positions of two parties of the talks UK Ms. May’s main objectives include getting a good free trade deal, continuing working together with EU members on such vital issues like security. Also, UK Prime Minister has indicated that she is ready to lean towards a hard Brexit if needed to restore UK control over immigration. EU Michel Barnier, European Chief Negotiator for Brexit, has recently hinted on Twitter that the remaining EU members are determined to impose customs controls despite May’s intentions to secure a “frictionless trade.” As Jean-Claude Juncker once claimed in his speech: Britain’s example will make everyone else realize that it’s not worth leaving”. Also, he added that the UK officials should understand that two-year period is not long enough for Britain to secure comprehensive trade deal with EU. So, as we may observe both parties took rather hard stances in the negotiations. It seems that it Is going to be the toughest negotiations ever held in political history. What will be the pound’s reaction? Will be there an additional slip in the currency’s value? Let us ask strategists from Barclays. Barclays Barclays’s strategists expect the invocation of Article 50 on Wednesday will initiate a “sell the rumor buy the fact” rebound in sterling from its historic lows in the longer-term as ambiguity over Brexit process recedes. A selloff of the British pound that originated after the referendum result of June 23 will probably fade away with the acceleration of the Brexit negotiation process. And GBP will regain its “fair value”. For the time being, markets have really overestimated the downside to GBP, but a number of fundamental factors such as positioning, hedging, risks to monetary policy should offer a modest support to GBP. Overall The majority of market participants are still betting on the further currency devaluation after the official announcement. But it shouldn’t be extreme, given the fact that the political risk of Brexit is well priced in. There might be a reversal in market’s bearish sentiment, as at the present it is so negative that it could be hard to find more sellers. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13029 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Trump trade faded. Are there chances for USD recovery? 3/28/2017 The Trump trade remains on the ropes after Donald Trump failed to repeal the affordable Care Act (dubbed Obamacare). It was the first attempt of the new administration to reform the government and its miserable failure shows that Trump might not be able to deliver on his election pledges. And without expansionary fiscal policies (tax cuts and government spending on the US economic development), the US dollar doesn’t justify its recent extreme valuation. The USD slumped to its lowest levels since November 2016 in the end of the past week. The Dollar Spot Index tumbled to 99 last seen in the last year US election time. US 10-year bond yield dropped to 2.347 from its March high (2.630) remaining in the elevated range that we saw in the middle of November. Trump’s stimulus policies were expected to provide an additional economic boost to the US economy which would, in turn, lead to higher interest rates and a strong dollar. Now, market participants have become less certain in Trump’s ability to fulfill his pre-election pledges. Some analysts, however, have saved their faith in Trump. They believe that it is too soon to write the USD rally off as other Trump’s legislation proposals meet less controversies in the Congress, and therefore, might be pushed through. According to them, downward pressure must ease in the near term. The British pound and the yen can become the first two major targets for the USD to gain. The pound is seen to weaken further as soon as Theresa May triggers Article 50 and liberates the UK from its obligations before the EU. The next victim for revenge will probably be the euro. Although EUR is currently passing through the bullish phase due to anti-EU Le Pen languishing in polls and upbeat economic figures coming out of Eurozone countries, it shouldn’t last long. As we approach the French presidential election with which many anticipate heightened political risks, the euro will likely weaken against the greenback. The US dollar can strengthen against such risk-sensitive currencies such as AUD and NZD, especially if Trump manages to implement its border tax policy. From all that has been said above, we may draw the following conclusion: although USD has suffered significant losses in the recent days, there are still chances for reversal in the near term. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13030 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 GBP/USD: bears-bulls -5:0 3/29/2017 On the GBP/USD daily chart, the bulls failed to consolidate above the 1.256 and 1.259 resistance levels. it is a signal of bulls' weakness and of the heightened risks of the transformation of the "Shark" pattern into 5-0. The pullback towards the support at 1.234 with the simultaneous return of quotes to the borders of the previous downward trading channel will be another signal of the restoration of downtrend. On the GBP/USD hourly chart, the formation of the expanding wedge reversal pattern is almost completed. Rollbacks towards 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% levels from the 4-5 wave can be used for the opening of short positions. Recommendations: SELL 1,2435 SL 1,249 TP1 1,234 TP2 1,225, SELL 1,247 SL 1,2525 TP 1,234. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13033 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 AUD/USD: aussie is dreaming of the north 3/29/2017 On the AUD/USD daily chart, the bears failed to keep quotes below the important support at 0.7605. As a result, the risks of the transformation of the junior inverted "Shark" pattern into 5-0 have increased. If this happens, the update of the March high followed by the successful test of the resistance at 0.777 will allow us to set 113% target in the "Shark" senior pattern. On the AUD / USD hourly chart, the expanding wedge pattern has been formed. Rollbacks towards 23,6%, 38,2% and 50% levels from 4-5 wave can be used for the opening of long positions in the direction of 88.6% and 113% targets in the Shark reversal pattern. Recommendations: BUY 0,763 SL 0,7575 TP 0,777, BUY 0,762, SL 0,7565 TP1 0,7695 TP2 0,777. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13034 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Morning brief for March 29 3/29/2017 US dollar rose rejuvenated from its ashes to live another bullish cycle. The US Dollar Spot Index jumped to 99.60. The euro, sterling, swiss franc and the yen were all lower. The British pound experienced a sharp downfall from 1.2450 to 1.2400 after UK PM Theresa May signed the Article 50 letter before handing it to Donald Tusk, European Council President. The handwritten letter will be delivered by UK ambassador to the EU at 14:30 MT time. The event was well reported to market participants. It will unlike have significant consequences for the pound. The recent sterling’s slide was driven on the profit-taking as traders are striving to cover themselves from possible spikes in volatility. Cautious traders might consider trading the market after it settles down after the release of the news and only then you may buy GBP/USD for a brief recovery. EUR/USD hit 1.9050 before dropping sharply to 1.0805. At the present moment, the pair is probably heading to consolidation phase even though the bears have recently flexed their muscles. The immediate support can be found at 1.0800, 1.0760. The economic calendar for the pair is light with some comments from Fed’s members to be delivered later. The yen showed little activity in the Tokyo session. USD/JPY slipped to 111.10. On the downside, there is a sturdy support at 110.00. A break of the upper levels (111.50, 112.85) will indicate that the downward pressure has eased. For the present moment, the technical outlook for the pair is neutral. Today’s focus will on the Chicago Fed President Evans speech that should be delivered at 13:20 MT time. Aussie edged up to 0.7660 in the Asian session probably due to surging commodity prices (iron ore in particular), as there were hardly any significant events that could start the rally. On its way to the upside, the Australian dollar may encounter several resistances at 0.7740/50. In case of a pullback, the prices may face several supports at 0.7585/1.590. On the USD/CAD technical chart, the bullish phase is intact. The US dollar may extend its gains further towards the resistances at 1.3420, 13535 (March 9 high). A possible reversal can occur in 1.3500/1,3550 region. But the latter scenario for the present moment will unlikely realize any time soon as oil prices don’t warrant their support to loonie in the near term as the destiny of OPEC/non-OPEC production cut deal still needs to be decided. Brent oil futures revived from its recent downfall haven risen to $51.60 on the expectation that an OPEC-led output reduction will be extended for additional 5 months and on the supply disruptions in Libya. WTI futures spiked to $48.60 in the past sessions. Today’s focus will on the US crude oil inventories data. The consensus forecast favors a further surge in oil prices. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13035 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Key option levels for Wednesday, March 29th 3/29/2017 ATTENTION! You can find all my next publications on FBS website, link - https://fbs.com/analytics/articles EUR/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bearish Neutral Changes in the open interest - 71 705 ? - 40 205 ? Closest resistance levels 1.0819; 1.0850; 1.0870; 1.0902 Closest support levels 1.0790; 1.0760; 1.0741; 1.0696 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0790 (or from 1.0819), with target points at 1.0760 and 1.0741 Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0819 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0850 and 1.0870 USD/CAD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bullish Changes in the open interest - 24 ? - 19 ? Closest resistance levels 1.3385; 1.3414; 1.3464; 1.3492 Closest support levels 1.3346; 1.3323; 1.3284 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3385 (or from 1.3346), with the target points at 1.3414 and 1.3464 Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3346 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3323 and 1.3284 AUD/USD Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period Bullish Bearish Changes in the open interest - 328 ? - 106 ? Closest resistance levels 0.7657; 0.7681; 0.7715; 0.7757 Closest support levels 0.7623; 0.7593; 0.7567; 0.7532 Trading recommendations Baseline scenario Long AUD/USD above 0.7657, with the target points at 0.7681 and 0.7715 Alternative scenario Moving below 0.7623 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 0.7593 and 0.7567 More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13037 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Formal Brexit: one event – dozens of widely differing opinions 3/29/2017 Article 50 trigger – formal notification of Britain’s intentions to leave the European Union – is a story of the day. The Article will be invoked at 14:30 MT time. Market analysts offer various trading tips. But it’s for you to choose the most suitable one. Some market strategists recommend not to rush into trade against the sterling and not to join the crowd of short sellers. This cohort of economists argues that prediction of GBP drop to 1.10 against the USD are designed to fill the space in the headlines. There are not based on the economic reality. A move downside is well priced in, so, as long as prices remain above the recent lows, the risk of bullish reversal is still in place. The act of Article 50 invocation could be one of those “sell the rumor, buy the fact event, that has a potential to send the pound towards 1.3000 area. Some of them say that the main focus will be not on the event itself, but on the comments accompanying the letter. The more details on future talks we get, the more confident we will be in our projections for the future path of the sterling (as additional information will partially eliminate uncertainty surrounding the future relationships between the UK and the EU27). Another group of market analysts disagrees with their colleagues saying that it is not a proper time to become bullish on the pound. This is a so-called “crowd” for the analysts from the first group. The third group is the group of “Machiavellian foxes” as I dubbed them. They prefer staying in the trenches until the dust settles down and only then rush into trading. They are intended to hold off for an hour or two allowing the market to digest the information, and then ride the established trend in the New York and Asian trading sessions. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13038 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 USD/CAD: technical levels and fundamentals 3/29/2017 General overview In the Tokyo morning, loonie reverted its recent bullish bias and sent prices towards the sturdy support at 1.3350. In the course of the European session, the downward pressure eased and helped USD rise higher. Fundamentals Yesterday we heard BoC’s Governor S. Poloz speaking at Durham College. He sounded a bit dovish and cautious. Mr. Poloz noted in his speech that Canada’ economic growth prospects are still unclear to the Bank of England as Trump administration’s intentions with regard trade deal with Canada are still unknown. Although President Trump is determined to target Mexico, there is still great uncertainty over the NAFTA deal and its consequences for Canada. Also, we received some comments on the housing prices from the BoC’s Governor. It was said that recent upsurge in housing prices is not driven by fundamental demand. USD moved higher overnight as investors have become more optimistic about the Trump’s ability to enact pro-growth policies. Fed’s speakers (George, Kaplan, and Fischer), Chair Yellen backed expectation for more US interest rate hikes and provided an additional boost for the currency overnight. Tokyo’s revival of oil prices was positive for the loonie. Brent oil futures surged to $51.76. WTI futures were also higher in the Asian session. The optimism that an OPEC-led production deal cut will be extended took its toll. USD/CAD dropped to the important level at 1.3350 (50-H4 MA). Today’s focus will be on the US crude oil inventories data. If the release posts another buildup in US crude stockpiles, the loonie’s reaction will be negative. Towards the end of the week, we will be waiting for US and Canadian economic growth figures coming on Thursday and Friday respectively. A strong Canadian GDP release will certainly be favorable for CAD’s valuation. Technical levels: USD/CAD will probably continue its roundabout movement within the Ichimoku cloud on the H4 timeframe. A break of the upper border (1.3380) will open the way towards the next immediate resistance at 1.3415. On the downside, the main supports can be found at 1.3286 (100-day MA), 1.3350 and 1.3280 (the upper border of Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13041 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 EUR/USD: euro returned to the neckline 3/30/2017 On the EUR/USD daily chart, there is a struggle for the area near the neckline of the "Head and shoulders" inverted pattern. If the "bulls" manage to push quotes above 1.0775, then the pattern will be realized and we will able to count on the continuation of the rally towards 1.104. There is 161.8% target in AB = CD pattern. In contrast, the weakness of buyers can lead to the development of correction towards the current short-term uptrend. On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the "Three Movements" pattern has been implemented. There is a high probability of transformation of the Shark pattern into 5-0. It implies a correction towards 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% levels of the CD wave, followed by the formation of the second shoulder of the "Head and Shoulders" pattern. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13043 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 USD/CAD: loonie is on a holiday 3/30/2017 On the USD / CAD daily chart, the bulls failed to test the resistance at 1.3405. This led to the formation of the consolidation range 1.328-1.341. A breakout of the lower border of the upward trading channel followed by successful tests of the supports at 1.3305 and 1.328 will send quotes lower. In contrast, a successful test of the resistance at 1.3405 can lead to the transformation of the "Shark" pattern into 5-0 and restoration of the uptrend. On the USD/CAD hourly chart, there is consolidation in the range of 1.328-1.34. Traders should bet on a breakout of its upper or lower borders. Recommendation: BUY 1,34 SL 1,3345 TP 1,352, SELL 1,328 SL 1,3335 TP 1,312. ore: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13044 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Morning brief for March 30 3/30/2017 The UK has finally filed its divorce papers yesterday. As a wife wanting to scoop all family’s possessions she could lay her hands on, the UK voiced its ambitious demands in a quite menacing tone (the UK PM Theresa May cited “security” 11 times in her letter willing to remind the EU members of their vulnerability to terror attacks and thereby push them to struck a security deal with the UK). German Chancellor Angela Merkel took a hard stance saying that Britain’s future relationships with the EU will be discussed only after the UK “honors all its legal, financial and budgetary obligations” (in lay terms, after the country pays a bill of around 60 billion euros). It seems that it’s going to be a rather tough and messy separation. And it might last more than 2 years considering the case of Canada-EU free trade agreement. It took 5 years to strike a deal and another 2 years to ratify it. GBP/USD edged up to 1.2440 after dropping to the sterling’s one week low (1.2375). Now, the pound is passing through its corrective phase. Most likely, it will be ranging within the tight range of 1.2475-1.2350 (the borders of Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe). The euro was down to 1.0750 from its earlier 1.0790 after ECB policymakers claimed that they are not ready to recourse from their easing programs (well, not until June). Fed’s officials said they are ok with hiking two more times this year given the progress on the Fed’s mandate targets of full employment and 2% inflation rate. In today’s European session we will get CPI figures for Spain And Germany. They might send quotes lower (as inflation rates are expected to have eased in March). The immediate support can be found at 1.0725 (100-H4 MA). In case of a deeper pullback, the prices might stumble across the support at 1.0690 (38.2% Fibo level traced from this year low). USD/JPY surged to 111.20 in the Asian session having partially recouped its losses after Trump’s failure to repeal Obamacare bill. Today’s focus will be on the US quarterly GDP reading, unemployment claims and numerous comments from the Fed’s members (Fed Mester, Kaplan, Williams, Dudley are on the roster). The US dollar will likely be responsive to GDP reading that, according to the consensus forecast, shouldn’t change from the last-month prints. The talk of Fed’s officials will be less interesting as we have already heard lots of them this week. Commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD, and NZD) were the leaders of the board yesterday supported by rising surging oil prices and steadiness in iron ore. In the Tokyo morning, they were down a few points. Aussie slid to 0.7655. But the positive undertone for AUD/USD is still intact unless bears manage to reclaim the support at 0.7610. Kiwi lowered to 0.7020. NZD/USD is still in the consolidation phase. It might continue ranging within the quite broad range of 0.6990-0.7090. The economic calendar for commodity currencies light. The loonie’s watchers will be waiting for the monthly update of raw material prices coming from Canada at 12:30 MT time. At the present moment, USD/CAD is hovering below the key resistance level at 1.3353 (50-H4 MA). If this level is broken, the prices will try to test the next hurdle at 1.3380. More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13045 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 USD/TRY: near-term fundamentals and technical levels 3/30/2017 USD/TRY currency pair is now available on the FBS trading platform and we are happy to provide you with the market analysis for your daily trades. General overview Turkish lira is the currency that was worst hit after Fed increased its interest rate on March 15 mainly because of country’s distorted current account data and low domestic policy credibility. After the massive downfall, TRY moved into the consolidation phase. At the present, USD/TRY is trading in a range of 3.6620 – 3.6250 (50- H4 MA). Fundamentals Most likely the currency pair will continue its corrective movement in the near-term being driven by US dollar fundamentals. If investors renew their hopes for Trump pro-growth policies, USD will easily regain its strength across the board. And the lira might suffer significantly. The key event of the next month is the Turkish referendum on a proposal to reshape Turkey’s current political system by abolishing the post of prime minister and offering President Recep Tayyip Erdogan broad executive powers. It will be held on April 16. The best result for TRY would be a “yes” vote as markets associate it with the maintenance of political status quo and formalization of Erdogan’s role. De facto the current Turkey’s political system is presidential widely supported by the ruling AK Party (Erdogan is a formal party leader). So, handing more powers to Erdogan would be mean “no change” in market’s language. A “No” vote would be more destabilizing for markets as it would lead to the continuation of the debate on Erdogan’s legitimacy. The investors will probably start to sell on the concerns about the results of the upcoming election (the probability of the win of opposition party will increase). Supporters of the introduced constitutional changes believe that offering Erdogan broad authority is the only way to achieve the political stability need for concentration on the economic reforms (that are so needed for the salvation of staggering economic growth of the country). A yes vote could strongly support the lira at for a short period of time. The central bank’s tightening measures don’t facilitate the nation’s currency valuation, neither they help to lower rising inflation rate. So far, they failed to affect bank’s lending to consumers and businesses. Another Achilles’ heel of Turkish lira is distorted trade balance data that is almost irreparable for a score of reasons. Turkey’s trade deficit is the biggest of all top 50 economies relative to output and the biggest problem is that most of the Turkish imports and foreign debt are priced in US dollars. Technical levels In the short term, USD/TRY will probably continue trading within the narrow range of 3.6260 – 3.6550. If the US dollar manages to regain its recent strength (least seen when investors were betting on Trump’s pro-growth policies), the quotes will rise towards 3.6660 (100-H4 MA). On the downside, there are several supports at 3.6260 (50-H4 MA) and 1.5845 (March 27 low). More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13047 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riki143 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Review on the book of Mark Douglas 3/30/2017 https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/13048/mark-douglas-dead.png[/MG] Basically, Mark Douglas’s book is a teaching guide containing ample instructions on how to enter the “zone” – a mental space where your mind and the collective consciousness of the market are in sync. Don’t confuse a zone with the ability to forecast direction of the market, or to determine the dominant market sentiment. It is more than that. Being in the “zone” is being in complete harmony with other market participants unconsciously, naturally, like if you were a bird in a flock migrating from north to south seasonally. Trader who managed to set up his mind in a way it to be magically consistent with collective mind of the market can anticipate all possible changes in the direction of quotes and, therefore, never leave the winning streak. The author of the book also explains how to ignore redundant information, how to overcome fear, block anxiety and reach the state of mind when you act and react instinctively, irrationally, without weighing alternatives or considering consequences of your executed orders. You cannot get automatically into a zone of your own free will. What you can do, though, is to set up the special kind of mental conditions that facilitate your entry into a “zone”. If you want to learn how to do this, you should consider reading “Trading in the zone.” Once you learn how to reach the point where there is no fear to screw up your trade, where you’re in absolute harmony with the market you won’t have any problems with earning money in FX market. You will obtain a special kind of attitude about trading, making mistakes, earning, losing money that will never leave you out in the cold. You will always be a winner of the situation. DOWNLOAD THE BOOK More: https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/13048 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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