internationallove Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-06-14) Weekly GBP/USD Last week pound kept declining – the prices broke down through the Turning line and lost almost 200 pips. At the same time the “golden cross” formed by Tenkan (1) and Kijun (2) above Kumo is still in place. The rising Ichimoku Cloud remains wide (3) that means that the bulls are still rather strong and will likely be able to keep the pair moving within the uptrend. Tenkan-sen acts as resistance, while the uptrend line and Kijun-sen have the role of support. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD The Ichimoku Cloud (3) remains extremely thin – neither bulls, nor bears are able to gain control over the market. The situation is unstable also because Tenkan-sen (1) that has recently crossed Kijun-sen (2) bottom-up forming the “golden cross” began declining. At the moment the prices are consolidating within a triangle. Later the pair will probably manage to resume the uptrend. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7591 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF"(2011-06-14) Weekly USD/CHF The situation at USD/CHF market changes little. There’s still the clear downtrend on the daily chart. The bearish Cloud remains wide. All lines of the Indicator are directed downwards (1, 2, 3 and 4). All that allows regard dollar’s advance as another correction. Chart. Weekly USD/CHF Daily USD/CHF It’s possible to see on the daily chart that last week US currency was slowly moving up. Never the less, the prices have approached the Turning line that may act as a rather strong resistance (1). It’s also necessary to note that the lines Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen still hold the “dead cross” (5) formed below the descending Cloud. The Standard line (2) and Senkou Span B (4) are directed horizontally that leaves the possibility for some consolidation of the rate, though the bears keep dominating the market and will soon try to erase the correction. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7593 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 "ANZ: the prospects of RBNZ rate hike"(2011-06-14) Analysts at ANZ Bank still think that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lift up the Official Cash Rate in December from the record low 2.5% level even despite the series of new earthquakes (magnitude 5.2 and 6) tremors in New Zealand's second largest city of Christchurch that took place on Monday and Tuesday. In their view, investors are currently pricing in 14 basis points of rate hikes by December compared with 22 points before the latest tremors. According to the specialists the market’s reaction is caused more by the inconvenience created by quakes than by a material threat to the reconstruction and economic recovery. The bank advises to watch New Zealand’s first quarter retail sales figures that will be released on Wednesday. One more important thing is the extent of increase in consumer spending after last year's weakness. The RBNZ will pay much attention to these key indicators. However, not all economists seem to be so optimistic. Strategists at TD Securities claim that the cataclysms may slow down the recovery and the cautious central bank may delay the hiking process. Chart. Daily NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7601 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 "UBS expects EUR/USD to decline"(2011-06-14) Currency strategists at UBS expect the single currency to decline versus the greenback. In their view, the dynamics of the pair EUR/USD after ECB’s President Jean-Claude Trichet’s hinted on Thursday at the coming rate hike shows that the potential of policy differentials as euro’s driving force is fading away. According to the bank, July will characterize by the increased macroeconomic uncertainty in the euro area and the end of the Federal Reserve’s QE2. As a result, risky assets, equities and commodities will decline, while US dollar will be encouraged to strengthen. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7603 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 "Nomura: yen will weaken versus US dollar by the end of June"(2011-06-14) Analysts at Nomura claim that the greenback may strengthen to 82.5 yen by the end of the second quarter. The specialists think that the demand for the Japanese currency may decrease in the coming months. Such assumption is base on the fact that in May there was a significant increase in outward portfolio investment via investment trusts. In addition, although the nuclear power plants will be gradually restarted in the second half of 2011, there risk that shutdowns will last longer remains. Nomura believes that if the Asian nation doesn’t manage to restart nuclear generators under regular maintenance fuel imports may bounce by 500 billion yen ($6.3 billion) per quarter. Nomura also advises to sell yen versus British pound. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7605 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 "Commerzbank: negative outlook for EUR/CHF"(2011-06-14) Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the single currency is close to support at 1.20 versus Swiss franc. In their view, the pair EUR/CHF may drop to the 3-year downtrend channel at 1.1950. The bank thinks that this level will be able to hold the first attack of the bears, though doubts that it will be able to initiate euro’s upward reversal. The longer term targets are set at 1.1790 and 1.1600. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7609 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 "ZKB, BNP Paribas about the possibility of SNB intervention"(2011-06-14) Economists at ZKB believe that strong franc won’t make the Swiss National Bank intervene at the currency market as Switzerland’s economy still isn’t strong enough, while the SNB’s currency reserves are already too high. The specialists note that the nation’s getting used to the strong national currency, though Swiss exports will stay under negative pressure in the second half of the year. Strategists at BNP Paribas also don’t regard the possibility of SNB intervention as strong. According to them, as the tensions between EU governments and the ECB remain, EUR/CHF may go down below 1.20. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7610 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 "Citigroup: code language from the central bankers"(2011-06-14) Last week the market’s attention was focused on the central bankers with both Ben Bernanke and Jean-Claude Trichet speaking. Investors were waiting for some key words from the ECB: as the central bank’s President said “strong vigilance” about inflation euro immediately spiked. When Trichet uses the expression “very close monitoring” euro moves quite a bit. Analysts at Westpac note that as investors got used to coded messages from central banks, so it the tension escalates, the market would react violently in both cases: if the ECB’s head mentioned “strong vigilance” and if he didn’t. Strategists J.P. Morgan say that central bankers may just want to animate the dry data. Analysts at Citigroup, however, don’t agree with such opinion thinking that their actions are quite deliberate. In their view, 30 years ago the goal of monetary authorities was to surprise the markets while now the central banks, on the contrary, try to prepare investors for future developments in order to eliminate potential shocks. Sophisticated investors know exactly what “strong vigilance” meant, but individual traders may have plenty of difficulties trying to interpret the “code language” correctly. As a result, Citigroup notes that it’s much easier for retail investors to trade on such factors as high probability of ECB July rate hike based on the market’s expectations. However, on Thursday after forming a spike euro has sharply fallen. An individual trader who needs some time to understand what’s happening may be crushed in such situation. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7613 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 "Sakakibara expects USD/JPY to fall to 75 yen"(2011-06-15) Eisuke Sakakibara former Japan’s top currency official known as “Mr. Yen” believes that Japanese yen may strengthen to 75 versus the greenback. As the reasons for such forecast the specialist cites US economic slowdown and the risk of its credit rating downgrade. Ratings agencies Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s have so far put US credit rating under review and the United States may lose its top rating unless it makes progress in solving its debt issues. Sakakibara says American lawmakers are likely to agree eventually on raising the debt ceiling in time (that’s before the deadline on August 2), so the credit ratings cut won’t be big and won’t hurt much the demand for Treasuries. The economist underlines that dollar will manage to remain the world’s primary reserve currency though it stay under pressure as the Fed will keen conducting extremely loose monetary policy. According to Sakakibara, USD/JPY trading range will shift to 75-80 yen. The expert thinks that dollar-negative factors will outweigh the risk of the “unprecedented recession” in Japan after the strongest in the nation’s history earthquake and tsunami on March 11. Sakakibara notes that Japan’s currency intervention is unlikely as the country won’t probably be able to get support from G7 as it was in March when the developed countries agreed to help weaken Japanese currency as its moves were too volatile and it had reached postwar maximum at 76.25 yen per dollar. The former official thinks that Japan’s economy won’t be affected much by the appreciation of the national currency as it will help the nation cope with rising commodity prices. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7617 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 "Commerzbank expects EUR/USD to decline"(2011-06-15) The single currency went up from Monday’s minimum in the 1.4300 area but failed at 1.4500 returning back below 1.4400. Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that euro is on its way down to support in the 1.4010/1.3968 zone. In their view, EUR/USD trend is neutral/negative after euro last week didn’t manage to overcome 78.6% retracement resistance at 1.4732. According to the bank, resistance is found at 1.4540/65, 1.4732 and at May maximum of 1.4940. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7619 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 "HSBC, Standard Chartered: outlook for Chinese yuan"(2011-06-15) Analysts at HSBC claim that it’s very difficult to determine whether Chinese currency is under- or overvalued. The specialists note that yuan rose versus the greenback by 6.4% in real terms since June 2010, but declined slightly on a REER basis. In their view, yuan can still strengthen a bit more. The uncertainty about its fair value will keep the pair USD/CNY from any sharp moves. Strategists at Standard Chartered believe that China’s tightening cycle may be close to an end as the inflation seems to have peaked. According to the bank, the People’s Bank of China will keep the rates unchanged in the second half of this year and in the first half of 2012. Later, however, the analysts expect inflation to increase once again, so there will be more rate hikes in the second half of the next year. The economists believe that USD/CNY daily trading band will soon widen as Chinese monetary authorities will show their intent to make the exchange rate more flexible. Standard Chartered notes that yuan is likely to keep appreciating. In their view, it will gain 4.0% since end-2Q 2011 to end-2012. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7620 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 "JPMorgan Chase, Nomura expect euro to rebound"(2011-06-17) Analysts at JPMorgan Chase and Nomura expect the single currency to rebound even despite the escalation of concerns about Greece’s future. According to JPMorgan, euro will show better results this year than dollar and yen even if the European policy makers put off agreeing on a resolution to the debt crisis as long as the situation seems to be more or less stable. The specialists believe that the market will calm down next week as the currency bloc’s leaders most probably won’t decide to do something drastic such as forcing private investors to share Greece’s debt burden by prolonging maturities. In their view, the pair EUR/JPY may climb to 120 yen this year. The bank also forecasts the pair EUR/USD to reach $1.48 by the end of December. Economists at Nomura think that the expectation of the ECB rate hikes will ease negative pressure on euro and euro’s not likely to fall into downtrend. The bank claims that the recent decline of the European currency reflects the increase in fiscal premium in the euro zone’s countries. Nomura’s forecast for euro is $1.45 and 127 yen at the end of this year. Chart. Daily EUR/JPY Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7626 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 "UBS: comments on USD/CHF"(2011-06-17) The greenback went up versus Swiss franc from Tuesday’s minimum at 0.8350, but was stopped by resistance at 0.8575. As the risk aversion strengthened, the pair USD/CHF went down to support at 0.8465. Resistance for US dollar is found at 0.8545 (June 16 maximum), 0.8595 (intra-day resistance) and 0.8665 (May 27 maximum). Support levels lie at 0.8465 (June 16 minimum), 0.8350 (June 14 minimum) and 0.8325 (June 7 minimum). Technical analysts at UBS, claim that the trend for USD/CHF will remain neutral as long as the pair is trading between 0.8443 and 0.8457. If dollar falls below 0.8443, the bearish trend will resume and dollar will be poises down to 0.8348. If US currency rises above 0.8547, it’ll be able to strengthen to 0.8639. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7628 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 "Citigroup: euro will remain under pressure"(2011-06-17) Analysts at Citigroup think that if the European Union and the International Monetary Fund agree to provide Greece with another tranche of financial aid that includes 8.7 billion euro ($12.4 billion) from EU and 3.3 billion euro from the IMF in July, euro’s rebound will be modest and short-lived. The specialists think that the single currency will remain under pressure of uncertainty generated by the process. In their view, euro still faces challenges in the near term. European finance ministers will meet on June 19 after they failed to reach an accord on the next loan disbursement an emergency session two days ago. The pair EUR/USD recovered rising above $1.24 after touching yesterday the minimal levels since May 26 at $1.4073. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7630 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 "Alan Greenspan: Greece will likely default"(2011-06-17) The former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan is almost sure that Greece will default. In his view, the chances of such outcome are “so high that you almost have to say there’s no way out”, reports Bloomberg. Greenspan says that the possibility that European politicians will manage to cope with the crisis is very low. Greek government bonds fell, while the yield on the 2-year notes reached the record maximum of more than 30%. The nation’s authorities didn’t manage to convince the population in the necessity of more austerity measures. If Greece becomes unable to repay its debts, US economy will face the high risk of recession. If Greece doesn’t default, the possibility of the US economic contraction will be low. According to Greenspan, American recovery is stemmed as businesses are concerned about the long-term outlook. The economist warns that US debt issue is becoming “horrendously dangerous” and US lawmakers probably don’t have another year or two to solve it. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7632 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 "Sarkozy and Merkel announced “breakthrough” in Greek issue"(2011-06-17) French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced after today’s meeting that there’s a “breakthrough” in solving Greece’s debt crisis: the leaders of 2 largest euro zone’s economies agreed on a new rescue package for Greece. Germany that was earlier demanding private bondholders pay a substantial share of any new bailout is going to work on the compromise deal with ECB. Analysts at RBS note that such comments helped to improve the investor’s risk sentiment. The market’s reaction was optimistic: single currency went up versus all of its main competitors on the news. The pair EUR/USD added 120 pips reaching 1.4290. Resistance for euro is found at 1.4300 (June 13 minimum), 1.4370/75 (20-day MA) and 1.4430/50 (June 13 maximums). Support levels lie at 1.4200/20 (previous maximums), 1.4125 (day minimum) and 1.4070 (June 16 minimum). Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7634 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 "Greece: shift in the government"(2011-06-17) Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou replaced his finance minister with his main socialist party rival hoping to push through the unpopular austerity plan. Analysts at UBS characterize the new comer Evangelos Venizelos who previously occupied the position of defense minister as politically powerful. In their view, Venizelos will be able to conduct fiscal consolidation even though he wasn’t engaged in financial matters before. Outgoing Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou, who negotiated a first 110 billion euro bailout for Athens last year and had the confidence of international lenders and markets, was moved to the environment ministry in a crisis-driven reshuffle. At first Greek market was positive on the news: Athens stock market index gained 2%. Bond markets, however, remain unnerved the by concerns that the nation never managed to repay its debt that has reached 340 billion euro or 150% of the nation’s GDP. Just before today’s announcement the yield on 10-year Greek government bonds reached the record maximum of 18.9%. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7636 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-06-20) Weekly GBP/USD Last week the pair GBP/USD was trading in a volatile way: there was the bearish candle with very long upper shadow and significant lower one formed on the price chart, so that it’s possible to say that the confrontation between bulls and bears was tough. Tenkan-sen still acts as resistance, while Kijun-sen is playing the role of support. The “golden cross” made by Tenkan (1) and Kijun (2) above Kumo remains in place. The rising Ichimoku Cloud keeps being rather wide (3) indicating that the bulls haven’t given up their positions. Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD The outlook for GBP/USD based on the daily chart has deteriorated – Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen that formed the “golden cross” the week before last have crossed once again, this time for the “dead cross” (1). The situation is unstable – this can be observed as the Ichimoku Cloud (3) remains extremely thin – neither bulls, nor bears are able to take over the market. The prices went down below the trend line and the momentum is bearish. At the same time, the Standard line is moving horizontally and Friday’s “hammer” figure means that he pair is trying to form a base at the current levels, so we see the potential for the rate’s consolidation and the bulls strengthening their positions. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7640 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 "Morgan Stanley: dollar will rebound in the second half of 2011"(2011-06-21) Analysts at Morgan Stanley expect US dollar to rebound during the second half of the year as Asian central banks from China to India raise interest rates to curb inflation, damping economic growth and demand for the region’s assets. The specialists underline that liquidity conditions start to change at a macro level and the global investment environment is becoming less favorable. As a result, investors’ demand for US dollar will strengthen. According to Morgan Stanley, Swiss franc will also benefit from this process, while Japanese yen will get support in the short term, though in the longer perspective it will suffer from the consequences of March earthquake. Another positive factor for US currency is the end of the Federal Reserve’s QE2 program. In addition, less demand for assets in the Asian nations will reduce selling pressure on dollar linked to the carry trade that involved selling dollars to buy the currencies of Norway, Australia, Canada and New Zealand. The Federal Reserve’s U.S. Trade-Weighted Major Currency Dollar Index lost 12% this year hitting the all-time minimum of 68.2405 on May 2. The People’s Bank of China lifted up reserve requirement ratio last week to a record 21.5% for the biggest lenders. The Reserve Bank of India raised interest rates 10 times since the start of 2010. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7666 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 DBS: risk-off sentiment of the global markets"(2011-06-21) Analysts at DBS Group note that investors are looking forward to Ben Bernanke’s press conference on Wednesday hoping that the Fed’s Chairman will reassure the market that American economic activity will pick up in the second half of the year. The specialists claim that Asian currencies excluding Japanese yen got under negative pressure since May as the pace world’s economic recovery eased down in the second quarter. The slowdown is due to mainly the deterioration at the US housing and labor markets and Japanese weakness after the March quakes. The overall investors’ sentiment worsened even though there appeared some hope about a resolution to the Greek debt crisis. According to DBS, when Greece meets its obligations by the July, the market’s attention may rapidly turn to US debt ceiling debate ahead of August 2 deadline. As American debt is increasing faster than the nation’s economy the US may lose its AAA rating and go through a frustratingly slow recovery. Comment here DBS: risk-off sentiment of the global markets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 "Commerzbank, Societe Generale: risks for EUR/USD"(2011-06-21) The single currency went down from Friday’s maximums in the 1.4340 area to find support yesterday at the levels in the 1.4200 region before returning back up close to 1.4400. Technical analysts at Commerzbank regard the recent advance of EUR/USD as a correction. In their view, the general outlook for euro remains negative in the short and medium terms and the pair won’t be able to rise above 6-week resistance line at 1.4600. Strategists at Societe Generale also claim that euro’s move up is fragile. According to the bank, the pair risks revisiting may minimum of 1.3970. The specialists think that EUR/USD is consolidating so far after the decline from 1.4700. Societe Generale expects that after a short pause euro will resume going down. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7670 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 "Deutsche Bank: USD/CHF will reverse upwards"(2011-06-21) Analysts at Deutsche Bank think that US dollar might have reached a bottom trading versus Swiss franc when it hit the record minimum of 0.8326 on June 7. The specialists expect the downtrend for the pair USD/CHF to reverse upwards. In their view, the greenback will be experiencing the steady recovery during the next year. According to the bank, US currency will rise to 0.9300 by the end of the third quarter and to 0.9800 by the end of 2011. The next year the pair may get above the parity climbing to 1.0500 in 12 months. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7672 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 "BMO: trade recommendations ahead of FOMC"(2011-06-21) The 2-day FOMC meeting begins today. It’s drawing special investors’ attention as this is the last one before the end of QE2. Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch claim that though the Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke will sound a little more cautious about the economic outlook, he will remain stick to the forecast that the nation’s economy will rebound in the second half of the year. In their view, the $600-billion bond purchasing program will finish as planned and US monetary authorities will switch to the neutral monetary policy. Strategists at BMO Capital Markets note that after the last three Fed’s meetings spreads between US and Australian 2-year bonds widened. As a result, the specialists recommend buying Australian dollar and selling the greenback at $1.06 stopping at $1.05 and taking profit at $1.09. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7674 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 "Morgan Stanley: currency forecasts revised"(2011-06-22) Analysts at Morgan Stanley revised down forecasts for some major currency pairs by the end of the year: - For EUR/USD – from 1.49 to 1.36; - For AUD/USD – from 1.12 to 1.01; - For GBP/USD – from 1.62 to 1.49. The specialists note that euro area’s economic outlook has deteriorated as the leading indicators tend to decline, investments inflows are slowing down. As a result, the single currency is going to stay under pressure. In addition, the concerns about global growth are strengthening that’s affecting pro-cyclical and commodity currencies. According to the bank, demand for the greenback in the second half of the year will be rather high. However, US rising debt burden makes Morgan Stanley doubt whether American currency will be able to keep rebounding in 2012. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7690 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 "BNP Paribas, Societe Generale about euro's rebound"(2011-06-22) Economists at BNP Paribas expect EUR/USD to rebound to $1.4500 in the short term. The banks says that the obstacles for euro seem to be much less great after Germany agreed to make significant concessions on the terms of the second bailout package for Greece and Papandreou's government won its confidence vote. According to BNP Paribas, if the Greek budget is passed in parliament next week, risk currencies and euro will surge. Strategists at FX Concepts, the world’s largest currency hedge fund, say that resistance for EUR/USD is found at $1.4470 and $1.4495. In their view, these levels will hold euro’s advance this week. The next week, however, the pair may strengthen to $1.4585. The outlook for the European currency will become negative if it closes below $1.4160. However, the specialists believe that any aggressive weakness will be postponed for two weeks or so. Analysts at Societe Generale claim that for the single currency to climb to $1.5000 versus the greenback there should be 3 factors: firstly, the successful resolution of the Greek crisis for a few months at least; secondly, confirmation that US economy is going through the “soft patch” and nothing more serious, and, finally, the evidence that Chinese monetary tightening cycle has approached the end. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7692 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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