internationallove Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 "Commerzbank: Swiss franc crosses today"(2011-06-03) EUR/CHF: the analysts note that the pair has found interim tehnical support in the 1.2050 area and may advance to resistance at 1.2320 (March minimums). The key resistance for euro is situated at 1.2404 – while it’s trading below this level, the outlook for the pair will remain negative. Chart. H4 EUR/USD USD/CHF: the specialists advise to buy US currency at 0.8425 adding at 0.8270 and stopping below 0.8250. In their view, it’s necessary to take profit at 0.8550. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7507 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 "UBS: positive outlook for GBP/USD"(2011-06-03) Technical analysts at UBS claim that the outlook for British pound versus the greenback is positive. In their view, the pair GBP/USD is poised up to resistance in the 1.6418 area. If sterling manages to rise above these levels, it will get chance to advance to 1.6495. According to the bank, key support for the pair is situated at 1.6302 – while pound’s trading higher UBS stick to the optimistic view on UK currency. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7511 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 "RBC Capital Markets: advised on how to trade EUR/USD"(2011-06-03) Currency strategists at RBC Capital Markets note that while trading euro it’s very important to choose right time frame. According to RBC, if the agreement on Greece’s bail out is reached the concerns about the restructuring of the nation’s debt in the short-term will be eliminated and the pair EUR/USD may bounce by 300 pips. As a result, there will be a buying opportunity for short-term investors. However, many analysts regard some kind of debt restructuring for Greece as inevitable claiming that this will eventually hit euro. So, for longer term investors RBC recommends using euro’s rally as an opportunity to set up longer term EUR shorts. In addition, as the pair EUR/USD is strongly by the overall shifts in risk sentiment, the analysts say it would be better to trade euro versus a currency such as New Zealand’s dollar that tends to perform similarly in similar risk environments. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7516 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD"(2011-06-06) Weekly GBP/USD As it was expected, GBP/USD market’s consolidating. During the last week the prices once again returned to the Turning line (1) that acted as a support. The “golden cross” formed by Tenkan and Kijun above Kumo is still in place (3). The increasing Ichimoku Cloud remains rather wide (4) that means that the bulls are still rather strong. The Standard line remains horizontal (2) that points to a flat. The prices may push off from Tenkan-sen (1) and move higher. The next support level will be at Kijun-sen (2). Chart. Weekly GBP/USD Daily GBP/USD The thin Ichimoku Cloud (3) keeps supporting the prices: despite the decline in the first half of the week, the prices that got inside of Kumo and even touched the Turning line (2) lying below, managed to turn up and overcoming the upper border of the Cloud. In addition, it’s necessary to note that on Friday the pair closed above the long-term Standard line (1) – bullish signal. All lines of the Indicator are horizontal. It’s possible to assume that after the consolidation within the triangle formation is over, the bulls will be able to resume the uptrend. At the moment neither bulls, nor bears dominate the market. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7520 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY"(2011-06-06) Weekly USD/JPY The prices fell below the Standard line. Resistance now will be provided by both Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. In addition, yen is still under pressure of the bearish Ichimoku Cloud that, however, tends to narrow gradually. At the same time, there’s the “inverted hammer” formed on the weekly candle chart that leaves space for some rebound of the rate. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY From the first view on the daily USD/JPY chart the outlook seems more pessimistic: all the lines of the Indicator are directed downwards (1, 2), Chinkou Span (4) recoiled down from the price chart, while the Ichimoku Cloud (3) turned negative. At the same time, it’s necessary to note that the “golden cross” formed by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen is still in place and the market will have a certain incentive to return inside the Cloud. In addition, US dollar has approached the key support levels. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7521 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 "Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF"(2011-06-06) Weekly USD/CHF On the weekly USD/CHF chart one can see a clear downtrend. The bearish Cloud remains rather wide. All lines of the Indicator are directed sideways (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5). Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and Senkou Span A and B have lined up. Chart Weekly USD/CHF Daily USD/CHF On the daily chart the outlook according to the Indicator is also bearish: the descending Cloud (3), the “dead cross” (2), the falling lines (1). The only hope of the bulls is the support of the downtrend line. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7522 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 "Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD"(2011-06-08) The single currency bounced yesterday from the 1.4564 area representing 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of May's decline consolidating just below 1.4700. Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that the pair EUR/USD is now poised to 1.472 that's the78.6%retracement level. In their view, euro will likely fail at that point and retreat downwards. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7537 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 "Citigroup expects both US economy and dollar to fall"(2011-06-08) Analysts at Citigroup studied the correlation between the performance of US dollar and the nation’s economic data during the two years after Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy in 2008. According to the specialists, the greenback rose and fell inversely to American economy gaining in times of its weakness as investors were buying dollar as a refuge. Then the demand for US currency fell as the Fed’s monetary stimulus programs encouraged the market’s risk appetite. However, such relationship may be over as the as prospects for additional economic stimulus diminish, claims Citigroup. The economists believe that despite unemployment above 9% and other woes, there may be no next round of easing or other measures such as 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. In their view, the market may start to think that US economic slowdown is a positive factor for others and dollar will fall together with American economy. Citigroup strategists have developed US Surprise Index that shows that US economic data is bringing the worst results since December 2008. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7539 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 "Bernanke’s comments. US rates will remain low"(2011-06-08) Yesterday Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke called US economic recovery “frustratingly slow”. According to the policymaker, monetary policy still has to be loose as the country’s economy is still underperforming and the unemployment level remains very high. At the same time, the Fed pledged to make all effort to keep inflation under control. As a result, the interest rates in the US will likely remain extremely low during the extended period of time. However, the Fed’s chief gave no hint about the prospects of the third round of quantitative easing the markers were expecting so desperately. Bernanke thinks that American growth will accelerate in the second half of the year as fuel prices moderate and disruptions of parts supplies ease as factories in Japan recover from an earthquake and tsunami. All in all, Bernanke sees the central bank’s goal in providing good fundamentals for US currency in the medium term. To do this, the Fed, in his view, has firstly to keep inflation low and stable and then to support the economy. In addition, Bernanke underlined the necessity to reduce budget deficits to ensure long-term growth without too quick spending cuts as it would derail the recovery. The pair USD/JPY fell to 1-month minimum getting below 80 yen. Support for the greenback is found at 9.55 (May 5 minimum), while resistance levels are situated at 80.35/40 (June 6/7 maximums) and 80.60/70 (May 29/31 minimums). Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7541 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 "UBS: comments on USD/CHF"(2011-06-08) Technical analysts at UBS have slightly bearish outlook for the greenback versus Swiss franc in the short term. In their view, it’s necessary to watch support at 0.8300. If the pair USD/CHF drops below this level, it will be poised down to 0.8165. According to the bank, resistance for US dollar is situated at 0.8453. Chart. Daily USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7543 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 "EUR/USD: attention to Trichet speaking tomorrowl"(2011-06-08) Tomorrow European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will hold a press conference to discuss monetary policy. It’s recommended to listen if he says “strong vigilance” on inflation and describes the current policy as “accommodative”. If Trichet uses these words, then the analysts and forecasters will be almost sure that the EBC will lift up its benchmark interest rate in July. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7545 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 "Reuters poll on USDJPY"(2011-06-08) According to the monthly survey of 60 banks and analysts conducted by Reuters, the greenback will recover to 82.00 during the next month. The pair USD/JPY is expected to reach 83.00 in the third quarter and then climb to 85.30 by the end of the year. The median forecast for the greenback in the first half of 2012 is also positive. Surveyed economists think that US currency will cost 90.00 yen in a year. Chart.Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7547 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 "Commerzbank: SNB will raise rates only in September"(2011-06-08) Currency strategists at Commerzbank think that the Swiss National Bank won’t raise interest rates at its meeting next Thursday (June 16). In their view, the SNB will begin the hike cycle in September. The specialists justify their assumptions by the fact that Switzerland’s economic growth remains lower than expected and there’s currently no risk of neither deflation nor inflation. Swiss GDP growth rate went down from 0.8% in the final quarter of 2010 to 0.3% in the first 3 months of this year. The annual growth rate decreased from 3.1% in Q4 2010 to 2.4% in Q1 2011. Chart. Daily EUR/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7549 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 8, 2011 Author Share Posted June 8, 2011 "Sterling: Moody’s warning, MPC meeting tomorrow"(2011-06-08) British pound declined today versus the greenback and the single currency as Moody’s Investors Service warned UK authorities that the country could lose its top AAA credit rating if its economic growth remained weak and the government failed to meet its budget deficit reduction targets. The Bank of England will announce tomorrow its interest rate decision. Taking into account the discouraging data seen so far in Britain, the central bank’s most likely to keep the rates unchanged at the record minimum of 0.5% even though inflation is at 4.5% that’s well above the target and may go even higher. It’s also necessary to note that the hawks Martin Weale and Spencer Dale who called for the rate hike have revised their views due to recent weak UK data. The ECB, on the contrary, is expected to increase the borrowing costs next month. The prospects of widening rate differential between the euro area and the UK will make investors increase demand for EUR/GBP. The single currency climbed today to 1-month maximum versus sterling at 0.8974. Later, however, euro’s advance was erased due to the concerns about the European debt crisis and signs of stagnating global growth. Chart. Daily EUR/GBP Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7550 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 "RBS: RBNZ will have to raise rates in prospect"(2011-06-09) As it was expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the official cash rate at 2.5%. According to the central bank, one of the reasons to keep the borrowing costs unchanged was the strength of New Zealand’s dollar during the past 2 months that was acting to tighten monetary conditions lowering the cost of imports and offsetting some of the strength in export demand. In addition, the country’s monetary authorities underlined that the national economy remained weak. At the same time, the RBNZ said that as the signs of recovery seen in March continued it’s going to keep a close eye on the economy to ensure that the pace and timing of increases will be guided by the speed of recovery. The bulls took such comments with optimism. The pair NZD/USD bounced to 0.8244 before returning to trade in the 0.8190 area. Analysts at ANZ claim that support for kiwi lies at 0.8145 and 0.8110. Resistance levels are found at 0.8212 (June 8 maximum), 0.8230 (June 7 maximum) and 0.8258 (June 1 maximum). Economists at RBS note that once New Zealand will get over the earthquake consequences the RBNZ will have to tighten quite aggressively. Currency strategists at ICAP expect the central bank to raise rates by 50 basis points in the fourth quarter as the economic growth accelerates but not earlier. Chart. Daily NZD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7554 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 "BMO: recommendations on trading EUR/USD"(2011-06-09) Specialists at BMO Capital Markets advice investors to act the following way: wait until Trichet speaks about the “strong vigilance” and euro’s arte bounces and then sell the single currency ahead of the comments on Greece’s crisis. As a result, the analysts recommend selling EUR/USD at 1.4650 stopping at 1.4750 and taking profit at 1.4450. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7559 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 "BBH expect no currency intervention in Japant"(2011-06-09) Japanese yen has once again strengthened to the key levels versus US dollar: the pair USD/JPY is trading in the 80 yen area. As a result, investors are speculating about the possibility of currency intervention. The IMF's acting head, John Lipsky, claimed that the G-7 countries are prepared to intervene again if it's necessary. However, analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman claim that the key conditions for the intervention that existed before the most recent intervention are not present right now. According to the specialists, the volatility is much lower now than it was in March. In addition, the difference in yield between 2-year Treasuries and 2-year Japanese government bonds is about 22 basis points, while 2 months ago it was 3 times bigger. Moreover, the USD/JPY decline may be the result of dollar’s weakness and not yen’s strength. So, taking into account all these factors BBH regards intervention as very unlikely. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7561 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 "Commerzbank: AUD/USD will fall to 1.0441"(2011-06-09) Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that Australian dollar must have reached maximum at 1.1010 versus the greenback at the beginning of May. In their view, the pair AUD/USD may weaken in the near-term. The bank’s assumption is found on Aussie’s trade-weighted index that is likely to correct downwards by 3%. Australia’s currency didn’t manage to overcome the 1.0794 level representing 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of May's decline. The specialists believe that the pair is now poised to test May 25 minimum of 1.0441. According to the bank, AUD/USD risks to drop to December maximum at 1.0224. Chart. Daily AUD/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7563 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 "Capital Economics: QE3 is unlikely this year"(2011-06-09) Analysts at Capital Economics name 3 reasons why they think the Federal Reserve won’t launch the third round of quantitative easing this year. Firstly, the slowdown of US economy may be caused by the temporary factors such as the surge of commodity prices and the supply disruptions after Japanese earthquake. The specialists underline that Bernanke still expects US growth to pick up. The Fed’s chief gave no hint of more quantitative easing and even admitted that “monetary policy cannot be a panacea”. Secondly, Capital Economics notes that after the Fed’s bond purchasing program the risk of inflation is larger than the deflation one that was taken into account when QE2 was planned last year. Finally, according to the economists the longer-term costs of QE2 could now be seen as greater than its benefits. The analysts say that easing didn’t do much to decrease the long-term interest rates. Moreover, it may have encouraged the growth of commodity prices. As a result, Capital Economics thinks that there’s a little chance of an additional program of QE in the next few months. However, the specialists don’t entirely rule out such possibility in a longer time period as next year there may be a necessity to offset the effects of fiscal consolidation. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7565 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 "Pimco’s reducing investment in Treasuries"(2011-06-09) Analysts at Pacific Investment Management Co., the world’s biggest bond fund, claim that foreigners are questioning US dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency because of US extremely loose monetary policy as low borrowing rates reduce the nation’s debt burden. The strategists have once again advised investors to keep away from Treasuries as these securities don’t compensate inflation – the difference between yields on 10-year Treasuries and the year-over-year CPI or the real yield was at minus 0.103% today, close to the minimal level since November 2008. Pimco notes that the size of marketable debt outstanding has more than doubled since the beginning of financial crisis to $9.7 trillion. The company reduced the share of US government debt in its assets by 3% in March and by 4% in April. According to Pimco, it’s much better to hold debt of such nations as Canada, Germany and Mexico which have better fiscal and monetary policies. Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7567 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 "The single currency’s down after ECB press conference"(2011-06-10) The single currency declined versus the greenback as the European Central Bank is regarded now as less likely to accelerate the interest rate increases this year and the markets expect ECB to hold the borrowing costs after July increase. In addition, Jean-Claude Trichet rejected the idea of the central bank’s any direct participation in a second bailout for Greece at the press-conference yesterday. The ECB’s head said that it could accept a plan in which investors voluntarily agree to buy Greek bonds to replace maturing debt, but has no intention of rolling over its own Greek holdings. Analysts at Daiwa Securities claim that euro has the potential to fall. The specialists say that Trichet won’t compromise now as the ECB has already taken the main burden of the crisis. The ECB began buying bonds of the indebted nations in May last year. According to Barclays Capital, the central bank has so far purchased 75 billion euro worth of assets in the secondary market under its Securities Market Program, which, according to the euro area’s monetary authorities, is temporary and not designed to finance governments. As a result, the European politicians may have no choice but to ask their taxpayers to finance Greek budget shortfall that may reach 90 billion euro ($130 billion) in 2014. Analysts at Deutsche Bank claim that although the ECB can’t buy bonds on the primary market, it is able to convince private bondholders to roll over by re-launching its SMP program on the secondary market. In their view, Trichet’s comments indicate that the Europeans are still far from a fully fledged solution. On June 23-24 there will be EU summit aimed to decide on a new aid package for Greece. According to the information from 2 unnamed officials cited by Bloomberg, the new bailout plan implies that the European governments and the IMF would provide the nation with 45 billion euro more. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7569 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 "Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD"(2011-06-10) The single currency’s 2-week advance versus the greenback stumbled this week at 1.4700, close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of May's decline. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that the short-term outlook for the pair EUR/USD has switched to the downside. In their view, euro is now poised down to the Ichimoku Cloud support at 1.4295 and then to the recent minimum and the 200-week MA at 1.4007/1.3968. Chart. Daily EUR/USD Comment here Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 "Mizuho: comments on USD/JPY"(2011-06-10) US dollar tried to recover versus Japanese yen on Wednesday from the minimum at 79.79, but failed at 80.45. The pair USD/JPY returned to the 80.00 area. Technical analysts at Mizuho Corporate Bank note that the crossing MAs give the selling signal. There’s also the potential inverted “flag” and the pressing daily Ichimoku Cloud. The specialists note that the trade volume in summer is low. In their view, taking into account the current conditions it’s possible to assume that the greenback will drop. According to Mizuho, it’s necessary to sell at 80.15 stopping above 81.15 and taking profit at 79.75 and 79.15. Chart. Daily USD/JPY Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7573 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 "UBS: comments on USD/CHF"(2011-06-10) US dollar went up from the record minimums versus Swiss franc in the 0.8325 area hit at the beginning of the week getting above 0.8400. Technical analysts at UBS note that USD/CHF upward move was caused by general strengthening of the greenback. In their view, however, the near-term outlook remains bearish as long as US currency is trading below 0.8500. According to the bank, key support levels are found at 0.8327 and 0.8300. Chart. H4 USD/CHF Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7575 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
internationallove Posted June 10, 2011 Author Share Posted June 10, 2011 "Citibank: EUR/USD will fall to $1.42"(2011-06-10) Currency strategists at Citibank note that the ECB's stance regarding inflation and interest rate rises is not as strong as it was thought that made investors sell the single currency. The specialists expect the central bank to raise rates next month, but they aren’t sure about the future. In their view, the pair EUR/USD will slide in the near term to $1.43/$1.42. There’s a rather strong support at $1.4419 (38.25 Fibonacci retracement of the advance from May 23 to June 7). On the upside, resistance for euro will be found at $1.46. Analysts at BNY Mellon underline that the market keeps being seized by the concerns about disagreements among euro zone’s authorities. Chart. H4 EUR/USD Comment here http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets/view/7579 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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