riki143 Posted August 21, 2015 Posted August 21, 2015 Forex Analytics USD/JPY: forecast for August 24-30 21 August 2015 By Elizabeth Belugina USD/JPY slid below 123.00. Japanese yen strengthened as a safe haven, because worse-than-expected economic figures from China and other events kept investors’ risk sentiment getting worse and worse. The case for further easing by the Bank of Japan is building. Japanese economy contracted in Q2. GDP fell by an annualized 1.6%. Japan’s export growth slowed in July, while private sector demand is low. On Friday, Japan will release inflation and retail sales figures. According to the Reuters poll, core consumer prices in Japan have slipped in July, the first fall in more than 2 years. Other data may to provide some positive news: according to the forecasts, household spending probably rose in July as hot weather spurred sales of summer clothing and air conditioners. Retail sales are expected to show a 1.1% gain in July on-year, up for the four straight month, though the pace of growth has moderated in the past few months. There are some expectations of the Bank of Japan’s additional monetary stimulus in October. These expectations will provide some support for the pair. However, the central bank is very unlikely to make any new steps before the Federal Reserve’s meeting on September 17. All in all, we expect USD/JPY to remain under pressure. Next support is in the 122.30/00 psychological area and at 121.50 (2015 uptrend line). On the upside resistance is at 123.60 and 124.50. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6167 Quote
riki143 Posted August 21, 2015 Posted August 21, 2015 Forex Analytics EUR/USD: forecast for August 24-30 21 August 2015 By Elizabeth Belugina The past week was eventful for the euro area and especially for Greece. International creditors agreed to provide the nation with 86-billion euro bailout. Greece will be getting the money within the next 3 years. In return, Greek authorities will have to raise taxes and cut spending. Greece got the first 26-billion tranche on Thursday: 10 billion will be used to recapitalize the banks, while about 3 billion were repaid to the ECB. In the near term, we will see plenty of political news from Greece. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras resigned because of a rebellion in his leftist Syriza party. Tsipras now aims to take part in the snap parliamentary elections reported on September 20 in order to strengthen his hold on power. For now, the market views the resignation of Tsipras as positive for the euro believing that it could facilitate the negotiations with the European authorities. For now, under the Greek constitution, the three largest parties will try to form a temporary government – this process may be rather difficult. EUR/USD jumped towards 1.1300 as the less hawkish Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. The single currency is used as a refuge as capital is flying from emerging markets. Safe haven demand will keep the euro supported until there are better economic data coming from the US and China. As a result, we recommend being very cautious with short positions next week. Buying on the dips will be better as a short-term strategy. Next week there will not be many important economic releases in the euro area, except German Ifo business climate on Tuesday. In addition, pay attention to the meeting of the global monetary authorities in Jackson Hole. Resistance is at 1.1340 (200-day MA), 1.1380 and 1.1430/67. Support is located at 1.1215, 1.1130/00, 1.1075 and 1.1015. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6166 Quote
riki143 Posted August 21, 2015 Posted August 21, 2015 Forex Analytics US dollar: forecast for August 24 - 30 21 August 2015 Kira Iukhtenko US Dollar index reached its lowest level since June 30 by the end of the week (95.40). Increased global uncertainty lowers expectations for a Fed’s rate hike on the September 17 meeting. Dovish Fed’s policy minutes and lower inflation data became another argument against a premature hike. Futures market is currently pricing in only 24% chance for a Fed’s hike in September. Chart. USD Index Weekly We believe the US currency has some room for a corrective decline, but the buyers are expected to return into the market ahead of the September 4 NFP. It will finally become clear that there is nothing more stable than the US economy these days. US are scheduled to release a bag of important figures on the new week. Pay special attention to the Q2 GDP second estimate. There is a chance for the figure to be revised higher from the preliminary +2.3% reading. The famous Jackson Hole symposium starts on Thursday. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6164 Quote
riki143 Posted August 24, 2015 Posted August 24, 2015 Forex Analytics Danske Bank: trade signals for Aug 24 Open positions: EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 137.50, TAKE PROFIT 140.67 (revised), STOP LOSS 137.75 (revised) GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5635, TAKE PROFIT 1.5789, STOP LOSS 1.5595 AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7350, TAKE PROFIT 0.7066, STOP LOSS 0.7328 (revised) USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3337 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.2938 Trade ideas: EUR/USD: Look to BUY USD/CHF: Look to SELL USD/JPY: Look to SELL EUR/GBP: Look to BUY EUR/CHF: Look to BUY EUR/CAD: Look to BUY GBP/JPY: Look to SELL NZD/USD: Look to SELL __________________________________________________________ *Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price) More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6179 Quote
riki143 Posted August 25, 2015 Posted August 25, 2015 Forex Analytics Trading plan for August 25 Kira Iukhtenko On Monday, all the stock markets collapsed starting from China. Shanghai Composite fell by 8.5% in the Asian trade, pulling all the indices lower. As a result, market appetite turned negative and the commodity rout extended. Investors rushed into the safe-haven assets, such as EUR, JPY, GBP and CHF. As for the metals, the only asset that survived for now is Gold. It stays in demand as a refuge. We expect the current risk-off trend to continue until we see a significant rebound in China. Watch the Bank of China’s actions as at a certain point they will have to intervene to save the economy. We advise joining the trend and selling the commodity and risky assets until that happens. AUD and NZD are an attractive SELL these days. EUR/USD is being bought as the carry trade operations became senseless in the current conditions. We expect the euro to stay supported as the crisis goes on. Buy the pair on dips to 1.1470. GBP/USD is also an attractive pair to go long after it closed above the 1.5700 resistance. Target 1.5800 and 1.5870 this week. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6189 Quote
riki143 Posted August 25, 2015 Posted August 25, 2015 Forex Analytics Danske Bank: trade signals for August 25 Open positions: AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.6954, STOP LOSS 0.7295 USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3400 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.3058 EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 138.05, TAKE PROFIT 135.56, STOP LOSS 139.05 EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0815, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002, STOP LOSS 1.0745 EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.5215, TAKE PROFIT 1.5586, STOP LOSS 1.5115 Trade ideas: EUR/USD: BUY at 1.1485, TAKE PROFIT 1.1808, STOP LOSS 1.1400 USD/JPY: SELL at 120.20, TAKE PROFIT 115.86, STOP LOSS 122.15 GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5725, TAKE PROFIT 1.5930, STOP LOSS 1.5625 EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7225, TAKE PROFIT 7483, STOP LOSS 0.7150 NZD/USD: SELL at 0.6540, TAKE PROFIT 0.6342, STOP LOSS 0.6635 GBP/JPY: Look to BUY USD/CHF: Look to SELL ____________________________________________________________ *Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price) More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6196 Quote
riki143 Posted August 25, 2015 Posted August 25, 2015 Forex Analytics USD/CAD: buy target - 1.3400 25 August 2015 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -USD/CAD reached buy target 1.3200 -Next buy target - 1.3400 USD/CAD yesterday broke sharply above the resistance level 1.3200 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1 at the start of August and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from June - which is itself a part of the primary impulse wave ③ from May. USD/CAD is expected to rise further in the active impulse waves 3, (3) and ③ toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.3400 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3). Strong support remains at 1.3200. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6197 Quote
riki143 Posted August 26, 2015 Posted August 26, 2015 Forex AnalyticsForex trading plan for August 26By Elizaveta BeluginaChinese authorities finally addressed the economic and market turmoil by cutting the benchmark interest rate. The markets felt relief: stocks recovered and oil recovered, while the euro and the yen that strengthened as safe havens during the ‘Black Monday’ declined. US dollar was supported by the low-yielding currencies on the latest news from China as the move of the People’s Bank of China diminished fears that the Federal Reserve will have to delay interest rate hikes. Data released on Tuesday showed that US consumer confidence improved. US durable goods orders will be released at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday (forecast is negative).EUR/USD spiked towards 1.1715 on Monday, but is now testing 1.1500 to the downside. The pair met resistance of the mildly sloping uptrend, which has been in place since March. In the 1.1700 area, one can also find 55-week MA and resistance of the 2014-2015 decline. Resistance is at 1.1625, 1.1700 and 1.1800. There are signs of a top, and the euro will likely return lower. Support is at 1.1430, 1.1380 and 1.1280. Fundamentally, we think that the ECB won’t like to see the euro so high, so it will be more difficult for the single currency to get much higher at this point. GBP/USD rose to 1.5800 on Monday closing above 1.5700 since the end of June. Pound should be more cheering of the recovery in oil that the euro. Still, resistance lies at 1.5815 (May high) ahead of 1.5900/30 (July high). Support is at 1.5700 and 1.5630. UK will release data only of the minor importance, so the market’s focus will remain on the US and risk sentiment.USD/JPY is consolidating below resistance at 120.50 and 121.50. The pair was supported this week by the weekly Ichimoku Cloud and the 55-week MA. However, the advance of the US dollar will likely be limited as the expectations of the Fed’s rate hike took a blow after the recent market’s turmoil. Support is at 119.40, 118.88 and 118.00.AUD/USD recovered to 0.7200 after testing 0.7038 on Monday. On Wednesday morning, we will hear from the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens. Support is at 0.7170 and 0.7115. Resistance is at 0.7285, 0.7310 and 0.7335. Quote
riki143 Posted August 26, 2015 Posted August 26, 2015 Forex Analytics Trading plan for August 27 Kira Iukhtenko Policy stimulus launched by the Bank of China on Tuesday failed to support the Shanghai Composite (-1.3% on Wednesday). However, the overall market sentiment improved with the Brent price pausing its losses. US Dollar index is seen recovering for a second day in a row and won back the sharp “black Monday” losses. However, it still fails to close above the 95 points resistance. US releases strong durable goods data on Wednesday, but the market reaction was muted. The market is still cautious about buying the greenback. On Thursday, don’t miss the US Q2 GDP second estimate (forecast - upbeat) and the unemployment claims figures. Jackson Hole symposium starts tomorrow – comments on the global economy will likely follow. EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure. The pair will be driven by the risk sentiment these days. The pair pulled back from the 55-week MA and the weekly Ichimoku. Fix below 1.1500 will open the way for a rapid slide to 1.1200. GBP/USD also gave up ground, falling below 1.5700. The pair is testing 38.2% Fibo at 1.5570 as we speak. Bearish target -1.5520 (trend support). USD/JPY behaves a bit differently: it’s far from recovering to the Monday’s opening levels. Resistance lies at 120.00/30. Support – 118.50 and 116.00. According to the Japanese government, yen is far from being expensive these days. Commodity currencies remain a sell. Tomorrow we’ll be watching Australia private capital expenditure (a decline is expected). Data could easily pull AUD/USD down below 0.7100. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6221 Quote
riki143 Posted August 28, 2015 Posted August 28, 2015 Forex Analytics GBP/USD: forecast for Aug 31-Sept 6 Kira Iukhtenko GBP/USD surge above 1.5700 turned out to be a fake breakout – the pair lost more than 300 pips by the end of the week. A strong bearish candle is being formed on the weekly chart (SELL signal). The cable broke the trendline connecting the May-August lows to the downside. Weekly close below 1.5450 will become a strong signals for the sellers. Next levels to watch are 1.5330 и 1.5170. They are expected to be reached in the coming days. Recovery above 1.5500 is needed to revive the buying demand. Next week we’ll watch the UK August PMI indices. Monday is a bank holiday – volatility could increase on a thin market. Weak US data and a new wave of Asian market selloff is a risk to our bearish view, however. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6241 Quote
riki143 Posted August 31, 2015 Posted August 31, 2015 Forex Analytics EUR/USD: forecast for Aug 31-Sept 6 By Elizaveta Belugina EUR/USD spiked to 1.1700 during the Black Monday reaching the conversion are of several important resistances. As the market was in great stress, the low-yielding euro was used as a safe haven. Then, however, global risk sentiment improved and the pair reversed to the downside sliding below 1.1300. Data released in the euro area in the past week as usual were mixed. In Greece political deadlock was temporary resolved as a caretaker prime minister was appointed. Vassiliki Thanou, an opponent of austerity measures, will lead the country to September elections. It’s the first time Prime Minister position in Greece is occupied by a woman. The main event of the coming week for the euro will be the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday. There are many reasons for the ECB to show a dovish tone: inflation expectations in the euro area have fallen, oil prices have hit 6-year lows, while the euro’s exchange rate has become generally higher. Taking into account concerns about China’s economy and markets, the ECB’s President Mario Draghi will likely point out downside risks to European economy. Draghi will likely hint at the possibility of extending quantitative easing (QE) beyond September 2016. Comments like this will be negative for EUR/USD. Traders should also pay attention to the euro area’s flash August inflation figures on Monday as this release will be watched by the ECB. Although we expect the ECB meeting to be a bearish factor for the euro, be aware of the fact that the market’s risk sentiment and the stock markets haven’t stabilized. This can make the single currency swing to the upside. As a result, one has to be prepared for volatile trading. The technical picture for the euro looks bearish. A shooting start will the long upper shadow is ready to form on the weekly chart. Moreover, the pair returned below 200-day MA. Support is at 1.1150, 1.0950, 1.0850 and 1.0800. A bunch of resistance levels is located at 1.1380, 1.1430 and 1.1500 ahead of 1.1700. EUR/USD, Daily More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6245 Quote
riki143 Posted August 31, 2015 Posted August 31, 2015 Forex Analytics USD/JPY: forecast for Aug 31-Sept 6 By Elizabeth Belugina USD/JPY hit 116.15, the lowest level since the beginning of January, on Black Monday. Then as the market’s risk sentiment improved the pair returned to the previous support line of 2015 in the 121.50 area. Another positive factor for the US currency was the upward revision of America’s Q2 GDP growth. As yen strengthened at the beginning of the past week, we got comments from Japanese officials that the move was too “rough”. Taking into account the risks from China, Japan’s monetary authorities will not want national currency to strengthen much further. As a result, they will likely step in with verbal interventions if the bears once again try to pull the pair to 116.00. In addition, there are rumors that Japan’s giant public pension fund (GPIF) is aggressively buying foreign assets to support USD/JPY. Meanwhile, Japanese inflation data came out subdued. National core CPI was flat in July after rising by 0.2% in June. The more timely Tokyo CPI measure declined by 0.1% in August. It will be difficult for the Bank of Japan to achieve its 2% inflation target without further monetary stimulus. However, no such measures are expected within the next month Japanese core inflation, % Next week traders will focus on the US economic releases and especially non-farm payrolls (NFP) due on Friday. In Japanese economic calendar, we see some less important releases. All in all, although the market’s sentiment may improve, the uncertainty about China and the US Federal Reserve’s policy will remain limiting USD/JPY on the upside. On its way up the greenback will have to overcome resistance at 121.50, 122.25, 123.10 and 124.50. Support is located at 119.60 and 118.30/00. Daily, USD/JPY More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6244 Quote
riki143 Posted August 31, 2015 Posted August 31, 2015 Forex Analytics US Dollar: forecast for Aug 31-Sept 6 Kira Iukhtenko The Fed’s members have become much more dovish in their words after the last week’s market turmoil. However, demand for the US dollar recovered by the end of the week as the US data confirmed the ongoing recovery. The chance of a rate hike in September went down last week, but it can’t completely written off. Anyway, the market continues pricing in a policy change in 2015. We expect the US currency to strengthen over the next week. From the technical viewpoint, US Dollar index is forming a bearish triangle on a bullish market – sign of a mid-term trend continuation. Weekly candle with a long lower shadow confirms our short-term bullish view. US data next week will be in the center of the market attention ahead of the September 17 meeting. Watch the August PMI indices. Most expected day of the week is Friday with its August labor market figures. The NFP release is expected to support the USD demand. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6239 Quote
riki143 Posted August 31, 2015 Posted August 31, 2015 MARKET NEWS Key currency options 31 August 2015 FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: 1.0900 (4.75bn), 1.1000 (610m), 1.1150, 1.1165, 1.1175, 1.1190, 1.1200 (781m), 1.1235, 1.1250, 1.1270, 1.1300, 1.1350, 1.1375, 1.1400, 1.1410, 1.1415 (511m), 1.1500 (646m) USD/JPY: 118.90, 119.00, 119.75, 119.80, 120.00, 120.40, 120.50, 122.65 AUD/USD: 0.7250 NZD/USD: 0.6585, 0.6600 (2.3bn), 0.6750 (976m) EUR/JPY: 132.00 (526m), 136.00, 137.00 (1.35bn) USD/CAD: 1.3200 More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/3514 Quote
riki143 Posted August 31, 2015 Posted August 31, 2015 Forex Analytics Danske Bank: trade signals for Aug 31 Open positions:* EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.1252, TAKE PROFIT 1.1017, STOP LOSS 1.1317 USD/JPY: Hold SHORT from 121.15, TAKE PROFIT 118.26, STOP LOSS 122.15 USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.9580, TAKE PROFIT 0.9799, STOP LOSS 0.9495 AUD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.6954, STOP LOSS 0.7220 USD/CAD: Hold LONG from 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3400 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.3140 (revised) EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT from 138.05, TAKE PROFIT 134.33 (revised), STOP LOSS 137.65 (revised) EUR/GBP: Hold LONG from 0.7300, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7215 NZD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.6540, TAKE PROFIT 0.6342, STOP LOSS 0.6635 Trade ideas: EUR/CHF: SELL at 1.0815, TAKE PROFIT 1.0638, STOP LOSS 1.0895 GBP/JPY: SELL at 188.50, TAKE PROFIT 180.96, STOP LOSS 191.74 EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY GBP/USD: Possibly SELL ____________________________________________________________ *Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price) More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6258 Quote
riki143 Posted September 1, 2015 Posted September 1, 2015 Forex Analytics Forex trading plan for Sept 1 Kira Iukhtenko We expect the US Dollar to strenghten this week ahead of the labor market data on Friday (forecasts are upbeat). Given this view, EUR/USD is a SELL these days with a target of 1.0950. Technical picture confirms the ideas as the pair pulled back from the 55-week MA, forming a long-legged red candle last week. Watch the unemployment rate in the euro area tomorrow. GBP/USD also looks bearish this week, but the doji candle formed last Friday creates room for a bullish pullback. We recommend selling on rallies to 1.5480 (former trend support), targeting 1.5330. Watch the UK Manufacturing PMI tomorrow. As for AUD/USD, the pair is trading in the red ahead of the RBA meeting on Tuesday. No rate cut is expected, so the pair could get temporary support from this side. This would become a good point to sell on rallies. Don't miss China's PMI indices on Tuesday - data could become a negative surprise for the commodity currencies. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6272 Quote
riki143 Posted September 1, 2015 Posted September 1, 2015 Forex Analytics Danske Bank: trade signals for Sept 1 Open positions:* EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1252, TAKE PROFIT 1.1017, STOP LOSS 1.1317 USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 121.15, TAKE PROFIT 118.26, STOP LOSS 122.15 EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 138.05, TAKE PROFIT 134.33 (revised), STOP LOSS 137.65 (revised) EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7300, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7215 USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9580, TAKE PROFIT 0.9799, STOP LOSS 0.9495 AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.6954, STOP LOSS 0.7220 Trade ideas: EUR/CHF: SELL at 1.0815, TAKE PROFIT 1.0638, STOP LOSS 1.0895 GBP/JPY: SELL at 188.50, TAKE PROFIT 180.96, STOP LOSS 191.74 EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY GBP/USD: Possibly SELL ________________________________________________________________________ *Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price) More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6279 Quote
riki143 Posted September 1, 2015 Posted September 1, 2015 Forex Analytics GBP/AUD: buy target - 2.2000 1 September 2015 By: Dmitriy Chernovolov -GBP/AUD reversed from support zone -Next buy target - 2.2000 GBP/AUD recently reversed up sharply from the combined support zone lying at the intersection of the support level 2.1400 (former resistance level which reversed the previous impulse wave 1 in July), the support trendline of the daily up channel from May and the 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave (i). The upward reversal from this support zone completed the latest minor correction (ii). GBP/AUD is expected to rise further in the active impulse waves (iii) and 3 toward the next buy target at the resistance level 2.2000. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the aforementioned support level 2.1400. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6281 Quote
riki143 Posted September 1, 2015 Posted September 1, 2015 Forex Analytics Forex trading plan for September 2 By Elizabeth Belugina The market’s risk sentiment remains unstable. Worse than expected manufacturing data from China on Tuesday morning once again provoked decline in stocks increasing demand for safe-haven euro and yen. US ISM manufacturing PMI came out lower than expected (51.1 vs. 52.6 forecast). This is the lowest reading since August 2013. At the beginning of this week, traders were once again considering the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike. Note that the expectations of the market are very data-dependent. Watch the upcoming releases: weaker figures will hurt USD. On Wednesday, traders will be watching ADP non-farm employment change (12:15 GMT): it is believed that this labor market indicator provides hints for more important non-farm payrolls (NFP) due on Friday. EUR/USD rose, but failed to fix above the 200-day MA. Support is at 1.1200, 1.1150 and 1.1100 (key level) ahead of 1.1017. Resistance is at 1.1300, 1.1330 and 1.1380/1.1400. Advance of the single currency will likely be limited ahead of the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday. GBP/USD is trying to hold above 1.5300 after it closed below the 200-day MA on Monday (1.5365). This level is now acting as resistance together with 1.5410/00. British manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected. Britain will release construction PMI at 08:30 GMT. Support is 1.5245, 1.5200 and 1.5170. USD/JPY reversed down from 121.50 and slid to support at 119.60. Further support is at 118.90 and 118.30. As the uncertainty about the Fed’s policy remains, advance of the pair will be limited. AUD/USD was testing levels below 0.7100. The Reserve Bank of Australia left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2%. On Wednesday Australia will release Q2 GDP data. The nation’s economic growth is expected to slow down from 0.9% to 0.4%. Support is at 0.7000 (psychological level), 0.6989 (April 28 2009 low) and 0.7200. Resistance is at 0.7100 and 0.7150. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6288 Quote
riki143 Posted September 2, 2015 Posted September 2, 2015 Forex Analytics Danske Bank: trade signals for Sept 2 Open positions:* USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 121.15, TAKE PROFIT 118.26, STOP LOSS 121.30 USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9580, TAKE PROFIT 0.9799, STOP LOSS 0.9495 AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.6771, STOP LOSS 0.7164 EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 138.05, TAKE PROFIT 133.31, STOP LOSS 136.65 EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7300, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7215 EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0815, TAKE PROFIT 1.0638, STOP LOSS 1.0895 Trade ideas: NZD/USD: SELL at 0.6405, TAKE PROFIT 0.6092, STOP LOSS 0.6519 EUR/USD: Possibly SELL GBP/USD: Possibly SELL USD/CAD: Possibly BUY EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY GBP/JPY: Possibly SELL _____________________________________________________________________ *Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price) More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6293 Quote
riki143 Posted September 3, 2015 Posted September 3, 2015 Forex Analytics Trading plan for September 3 Kira Iukhtenko US Dollar index consolidates slightly below the 96 points mark on Wednesday. Weak ADP NFP was ignored by the market. It seems that the expectations for the strong official figures on Friday will be supporting the greenback until the end of the week. As for Thursday, watch the US trade balance and unemployment claims. EUR/USD continues its slow decline, approaching the 1.1200 figure. The ECB meeting on Thursday is creating bearish expectations: Mario Draghi could on a QE program extension. We stay bearish below 1.1320 with a target of 1.1150. GBP/USD trades at 3-month lows after having slipped below 1.5300. The next target is seen at 1.5170. Watch the UK Services PMI on Thursday – a downbeat surprise could trigger a massive selloff. USD/JPY is trying to offset the Tuesday losses, but remains unstable. China markets will be closed on Thursday and on Friday – the pair could get some support out of there. Next resistance lies at 120.40, support – at 118.50. AUD/USD consolidates around the trend support. The pair failed to fix below 0.7000 for now. However, data on Thursday could create a new wave of selling: watch the Australia retail sales and trade balance. Resistance is seen at 0.7070. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6303 Quote
riki143 Posted September 4, 2015 Posted September 4, 2015 Forex Analytics Forex trading plan for September 4 By Elizabeth Belugina On Friday, traders will be focused on the release of the US nonfarm payrolls data (NFP) at 12:30 GMT as it’s the key publication ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 17 meeting. This publication will determine dollar’s dynamics in all major pairs. According to the forecast, American economy added 217K jobs in August. As there have been many concerns about China so far, a reading above 200K is needed to keep the greenback from declining. A reading above 220K will make the greenback strengthen – the bigger the figure is, the higher USD will get. A reading between 200K and 220K may cause some volatility, but won’t clarity the Fed’s position. Ahead of the release trading should be quiet and in narrow ranges as many players will avoid new positions. EUR/USD fell on Thursday because of the dovish comments of the European Central Bank. The ECB lowered inflation and growth forecasts and increased issue share limit: the central bank may now hold 33% of a bond issue vs. 25% earlier. The pair met support of the 100-day MA in the 1.1100 area. GBP/USD continues declining hitting the next target at 1.5245 (50% of the April-June advance). Further support is at 1.5200 and 1.5170/50. Resistance is at 1.5330, 1.5360 and 1.5400. USD/JPY is facing resistance of the 50% Fibo of the August decline and 200-day MA (120.70/77). It seems like the pair’s under bearish pressure below this area. Further resistance is in the 121.70 zone. Support is at 119.60 and 119.30. AUD/USD is trying to hold above the psychological level of 0.7000. After weak GDP came weak retail sales. The pair is oversold and there is bullish divergence on H4. Still, no big moves are expected until the NFP release. Resistance is at 0.7060, 0.7100 and 0.7128. Support is at 0.6950 and 0.6900. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6314 Quote
riki143 Posted September 6, 2015 Posted September 6, 2015 Forex Analytics EUR/USD: forecast for September 7-13 By Elizaveta Belugina During the past week, EUR/USD didn’t renew high. On the contrary, most time the bias was negative because of the expectations of the dovish European Central Bank. The ECB’s didn’t disappoint the bears. The regulator left monetary policy unchanged, but warned about the negative risks coming from emerging markets and lowered the euro area’s growth and inflation forecasts. President Mario Draghi said that currency union might slip into deflation in the coming months. It now looks very likely that the ECB’s current quantitative easing program (QE) will last longer than September 2016. The central bank made some technical adjustments to QE, which will allow it to be more flexible and buy as much bonds as necessary. Overall, we can say that the ECB is dovish, but not aggressively so. The euro area’s economic calendar for the next week is not very full. There will be industrial production figures from Germany and France, the regions’ revised GDP and the informal meeting of the European finance ministers. There may be some headlines ahead of the Greek election due on September 20 as for now no political party gets the majority in parliament that creates political risks. Still, it may be a relatively quiet week, which precedes the Federal Reserve’s meeting and elections in Greece. If we look at the American side of the things, we may see that mixed labor market data didn’t bring any clarity about what to expect from the Fed this month. So, no clear trends should come from here. Note, however, that next week China can once again draw the market’s attention: the nation will release trade balance on Tuesday and inflation on Thursday. Don’t forget that lower-than-expected figures may spike demand for the euro as a safe haven. Technical picture. Support is at 1.0900. Resistance is at 1.1280, 1.1436 (June 18 high) and 1.1467 (May 15 high). The euro is vulnerable for more declines against Japanese yen. Chart. Daily EUR/USD More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6325 Quote
riki143 Posted September 6, 2015 Posted September 6, 2015 Forex Analytics GBP/USD: forecast for September 7-13 KIra Iukhtenko British pound extended the decline on the past week, hitting the lowest levels since June. The latest news from the United Kingdom disappoint. Services sector PMI fell to a 2-year low, confirming the UK companies are trouble by the global crisis. Expectations for the BOE rate hike in 2015 declined. On the new week, we’ll be watching the June manufacturing production figures. Bank of England is scheduled to meet on Thursday. No rate hike is expected. What’s more, we could hear some dovish comments this time. As for the technical viewpoint, the cable is trying to fix below 50% Fibonacci from the April-June uptrend and broke below the 1.5200 round figure. Strong resistance is seen at 1.5330, while the 1.5170 mark still remains a hurdle. Break below would open the way to 1.5000. More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6321 Quote
riki143 Posted September 6, 2015 Posted September 6, 2015 Forex Analytics USD/JPY: forecast for September 7-13 By Elizabeth Belugina After topping in the 121.70 area USD/JPY made another top in the 120.70 region. Demand for the yen as a safe haven limited the pair on the upside provoked a selloff to the 119.00 area. As for the drivers from America, we should note that US nonfarm payrolls data weren’t very high coming below 200K. This might be the negative seasonal factors in play. Still, American unemployment rate declined and average earnings rose. Such mixed release means that the debate on whether US economy is in a good enough shape for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September will surely continue in the coming week. Next week Japan will release current account and final GDP on Tuesday and some manufacturing data on Thursday and Friday. Japanese economic growth is unlikely to be revised to the upside. All in all, the speculation about the Fed’s rate hike timing and the markets risk sentiment will be the key themes for the market. The situation of risk aversion will likely continue as money is flowing out of China. Pay attention to the release of Chinese trade balance on Tuesday and inflation on Thursday. Technical picture. USD/JPY has strong resistance levels at 120.70, 121.70 and 122.00 – levels, which will be hard for the bulls to get through. Support is in the 118.30/00. Below that there should be buying interest from Japanese companies. Next support is at 116.00. Chart. Daily USD/JPY More: http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6326 Quote
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