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Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for August 12

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 


 

US dollar was supported on Tuesday by the decision of the People’s Bank of China to devalue the yuan. Chinese central bank has given a new boost to the global currency wars. The news is most negative for the commodity currencies – AUD, NZD, and CAD.  

 

American currency should feel well after good NFP data, but as it has already strengthened a lot, there’s a risk that large short positions will get partially covered making USD lose some of its strength.

 

Comments from the Federal Reserve don’t bring much clarity about the central bank’s plans for September. In addition, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said on Monday the Fed is close to raising short-term interest rates, possibly as soon as September, noting the economy is “approaching an acceptable normal.” Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said the central bank won’t raise interest rates until inflation has returned to normal. On Wednesday FOMC member Dudley will speak at 12:30 GMT. Earlier Dudley used to cite various risks for the US economy. In the meantime, Unit labor costs rose by 0.5% vs. 0.0% expected. That’s a positive thing for American inflation and USD.

 

EUR/USD tested levels above 1.1050. Greek government said that it had reached an agreement with its international creditors on the terms of the third bailout program, although there are some details still to be resolved. Although the creditor nations didn’t confirm this, traders seem quite optimistic about the temporary resolution of the Greek crisis. As a result, euro may spike to 1.1100 and 1.1130/40. Support lies at 1.0990, 0.0950 and 1.0900.

 

GBP/USD is held by 1.5615. Above this level another leg higher towards 1.5700 is possible. The UK will release labor market data at 08:30 GMT on Wednesday. Still, according to the forecasts, the figures won’t be very exciting. On the downside the key levels are at 1.5500 and 1.5465.

 

USD/JPY is once again testing 125.00. For now, it looks like US currency doesn’t have enough drivers to fix above this point, so we expect further consolidation. Support is at 124.50, 124.00 and 123.65.

 

AUD/USD fell affected by the news from China. A close below 0.7315 will be bearish. On Wednesday watch Westpac consumer sentiment index at 00:30 GMT, Australian wage price index at 01:30 GMT and, most importantly, Chinese industrial production at 05:30 GMT.

 

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Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for August 12

 

Open positions:

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 124.10, TAKE PROFIT 125.86, STOP LOSS 124.678 (revised)

 

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9665, TAKE PROFIT 1.0010 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9790

 

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0635, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0749

 

Trade ideas:

 

EUR/USD: Look to BUY at 1.0990/85

 

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5515, TAKE PROFIT 1.5701, STOP LOSS 1.5453

 

AUD/USD: Look to SELL

 

USD/CAD: Look to BUY dips

 

EUR/JPY: BUY at 137.81, TAKE PROFIT 139.17, STOP LOSS 137.32

 

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7122, TAKE PROFIT 0.6894, STOP LOSS 0.7181

 

EUR/CAD: Look to BUY

 

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.6550, TAKE PROFIT 0.6357, STOP LOSS 0.6645

 

GBP/JPY: BUY at 193.19, TAKE PROFIT 195.88, STOP LOSS 192.19

 

 _________________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Pound trading inside cloud

12 August 2015

 

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

The harsh recovery of the British currency against the American recorded earlier this week has stalled. The GBP/USD currency pair rate stumbled against the four-hour Ichimoku cloud upper border resistance and trades are continued in the cloud area today. The bulls are yet taking advantage of the golden cross formed by the Tenkan and Kijun lines, but the major trend still remains bearish: the Ichimoku cloud is negative.

 

A break through the cloud is obvious to trigger a change of the major trend. However, if the bulls fail to force through the 56th figure, we will expect the rate to decline into the negative area.

 

Technical levels: support – 1.5560; resistance – 1.5600.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 1.5570; SL — 1.5550; TP1 — 1.5670; TP2 — 1.5700.

 

2. Sell — 1.5550; SL — 1.5570; TP1 — 1.5480; TP2 — 1.5390.

 

gbpusdh4-TN.png

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Euro keeps strengthening

12 August 2015

 

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

EURUSD consolidated above the Ichimoku cloud yesterday due to the growing positive sentiment in the market. Bouncing from the four-hour cloud upper border, the pair resumed growth and is again testing the powerful resistance slightly below the 11th figure this morning. The bulls are supported by the golden cross formed by the Tenkan and Kijun lines earlier this week, as well as by the positive cloud which changed its character during yesterday's session. At the same time, the Chinkou Span line is in the zone of overboughtness. Breaking through the 11th figure might turn out quite tough, consolidation at the current levels is possible.

 

Technical levels: support – 1.1050; resistance – 1.1100.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 1.1050; SL — 1.1030; TP1 — 1.1130; TP2 — 1.1180.

 

eurusdh4-TN.png

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for August 13

 

By Eizabeth Belugina

 

China’s devaluation of the yuan, which acted as the bullish factor for the greenback in the first two days of the week, is now creating doubts on whether the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon. In addition, the number of job openings in the United States came out lower than expected.

 

On Thursday the market’s attention will be focused on the release of the US retail sales figures (12:30 GMT). The economists expect a 0.5% growth in both the headline and core indicators in July after a decline in June. Any disappointment will increase pressure on American currency, while its growth in case of positive figures should be limited.

 

EUR/USD rose above 1.1150 and is moving to 1.1200. The main driver of the pair is the dollar’s weakness, so euro may spike up more before the US data releases. Resistance is at 1.1215 (July 10 high) and 1.1245 (June 30 high). Support is at 1.1100/1088 and 1.1035. On Thursday Greek Parliament will vote to decide if the measures in the third bailout program will be implemented.

 

GBP/USD sipped to 1.5530 before recovering to 1.5615. UK labor market data came out mixed: the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month declined (GBP positive), though earnings growth has slowed down more than expected (GBP negative). The unemployment rate remained at 5.6% where it rose in the previous month. There will be no more important news from Britain this week. Resistance is at 1.5640 and 1.5690/5700. Below 1.5615 the pound will slide to 1.5400/5380.

 

USD/JPY managed to close above 125.00 on Tuesday, but was then still rejected down to 124.20. Support is at 123.65 guarding the way to 123.00.

 

AUD/USD spiked down to 0.7215 before recovering to 0.7387. Initially Aussie was affected by the news that China has once again set official yuan rate significantly lower. Still, the possibility of Aussie’s advance isn’t high. The psychological resistance is at 0.7400 and then at 0.7440. Support is at 0.7260 and 0.7215/00.

 

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Posted
MARKET NEWS

 

Key currency options

13 August 2015

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: 1.1100 (EUR 706m), 1.1150 (131m), 1.1200 (655m), 1.1245/50 (587m);

 

GBP/USD: 1.5540 (GBP 140m), 1.5650 (129m);

 

USD/JPY: 124.00 (USD 521m), 124.25 (200m), 125.00 (1.9bln), 125.50 (350m);

 

USD/CAD: 1.3015 (USD 130m);

 

AUD/USD: 0.7200 (AUD 1.3bln), 0.7400 (619m), 0.7440 (118m);

 

NZD/USD: 0.6595 (NZD 139m);

 

EUR/JPY: 138.25 (EUR 101m);

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7100 (EUR 2,2bln) 0.7205 (680m).

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

GBP/CHF: buy targets - 1.5400 and 1.5500

13 August 2015

 

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-GBP/CHF reversed from support zone

-Next buy targets - 1.5400 and 1.5500

 

GBP/CHF today reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 1.5200 (former major resistance level which reversed the pair sharply in the middle of April) and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous strong upward impulse wave from the end of earlier minor correction (iv). The upward reversal from this support zone continues the active impulse waves (v), (iii) and 3.

 

GBP/CHF is expected to rise further – in line with the strong uptrend that can be seen on the daily charts – toward the next buy targets at the resistance levels 1.5400 and 1.5500.

 

GBPCHF%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Au

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

AUD/CAD: sell targets - 0.9500 and 0.9450

13 August 2015

 

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-AUD/CAD reached sell target 0.9600

-Next sell targets - 0.9500 and 0.9450

 

AUD/CAD continues to decline after recently breaking through the support level 0.9600, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level follows the earlier sharp downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.9750 and 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward impulse 1 from January.

 

AUD/CAD is likely to fall further inside the active minor impulse wave 3 (which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from January) toward the next sell targets 0.9500 and 0.9450.

 

AUDCAD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Au

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

USD: outlook for August 17-23

14 August 2015

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

During the past week US dollar showed moderate gains versus other major currencies.

 

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On the one hand, the market sees higher and higher possibility of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in September. Solid retail sales data also supported the case for an early rate hike.

 

US%20retail%20sales.png

 

On the other hand, traders are still far from sure of such outcome. According to the latest Reuters polls of the leading economists, the odds of September rate hike rose to 60%. Although this is much more than we have seen before, uncertainty remains. In addition, the greenback has already strengthened much and many large players take profit on their bullish USD positions on good data releases. China’s yuan devaluation also limited strength of American currency: after initially higher demand for USD, traders feared that this would prevent the Fed from tightening monetary policy, as American central bank would not want to lose the currency war and let the greenback strengthen much more.

 

The next week will be full of important economic releases and events. Pay attention to inflation figures on Wednesday – low inflation makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates. In addition, the Fed’s July meeting minutes will see light. The market will be looking at the division of opinions within the regulator and information on how the policymakers estimate the external risks to American economy. San Francisco Fed President Williams will speak on Thursday: he is one of the FOMC members leaning to a rate hike in September. Also on Thursday is the first day of the Jackson Hole symposium. This is an annual event, attended by central bankers, finance ministers, academics, and financial market participants from all over the world and hosted by the Federal Reserve. We can expect plenty of important comments on economic and monetary policy not only by the Fed, but also by other central banks. Global trends such as decline in commodity prices will also be discussed.     

 

Traders will surely follow all these developments with great attention. For us to see confident growth in USD we need good American statistics accompanied by the hawkish comments of the Federal Reserve. And even this may be not enough: at the point when the market already has significant long USD positions, new bullish impulse should come from other nations and other central banks to provide monetary stimulus to their economies. Where the market will see that or at least the possibility of that, USD will gain. In this sense, commodity currencies should be the weakest versus the greenback. 

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis

17 August 2015

 

Roman Petuchov

 

Daily. Bearish impulse A seems to be complete. The initial phase of the bullish correction B is on the way.

 

audusd1.PNG

 

H4. On the new week we're going to rally in a wave [y]. We recommend you staying out of the market these days as the market is forming very complicated wave constructions.

 

audusd2%20%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B8%D1%8F

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis

17 August 2015

 

Roman Petuchov

 

Daily. The market is now trading in a complex corrective wave . Last week it became clear that it's not finished. The decline will begin only after the end of the final corrective wave (z).

 

gbpusd1.PNG

 

H4. Wave (Z) is a double tripple. On the new week the price will grow in a bullish zigzag Y of (Z). The decline will begin soon after. 

 

gbpusd2.PNG

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis

17 August 2015

 

Roman Petuchov

 

Daily. The market keeps on moving in a long-term corrective wave (4). We're now in the final bullish part of this wave.

 

eurusd1.PNG


H4. New bullish wave Y is as complicated as the previous waves. This week we expect the price to move up in a rising zigzag (y).

 

eurusd2.PNG

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for August 17

 

 

Open positions:

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 124.30, TAKE PROFIT 125.86, STOP LOSS 123.75

 

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9750, TAKE PROFIT 0.9984, STOP LOSS 0.9639

 

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3303, STOP LOSS 1.2938

 

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 138.20, TAKE PROFIT 140.03, STOP LOSS 137.32

 

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7122, TAKE PROFIT 0.6894, STOP LOSS 0.7181

 

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0635, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0749

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 194.20, TAKE PROFIT 197.45, STOP LOSS 192.99

 

Trade ideas:

 

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5565, TAKE PROFIT 1.5701, STOP LOSS 1.5498

 

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

 

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

 

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

 

__________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

-

Norkina : Australian drops in early trading

18 August 2015-

 

Tatyana Norkina – analytic for company FBS

 

Trading currency pair AUD / USD this morning began with a decline in prices. Bears stepped up the pressure after the bulls failed to overcome the resistance just below the 74th figure. Market gradually decreases along the top of a four-hour Ichimoku cloud to 0.7340 , where it is provided support by the Kijun-sen line.

 

Let’s note, however, that the situation on the market remains positive. Golden Cross and the growing cloud of Ichimoku may attract the interest of long-term players. Also, let us not exclude the possibility of testing the upper boundary of the cloud support in the area of ​​0.7330.

 

-Technical levels: support - 0.7330 ; Resistance - 0.7380 , 0.7400 , 0.7415 , 0.7440.

-Trading recommendations: 1. Buy - 0.7330; SL - 0.7310; TP1 - 0.7380; TP2 - 0.7400.

 

AUDUSDH4-TN.png

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Norkina : Dollar cannot find its strength

18 August 2015

 

Tatyana Norkina – analytic for company FBS 

 

The US dollar is not able to recover strength against the yen after Friday's rebound from the 124.50 resistance. The course of the currency pair USD / JPY remains inside the Tenkan-Kijun channel, under the resistance line Tenkan-sen on the four-hour timeframe.

 

Perhaps, the resumption of offensive bulls is prevented by local overboughtness of the pair, which is confirmed by the Chinkou line. However, in both the short and long term, perspectives, the market situation is owned by the bulls. Indeed, the golden cross and bullish cloud may increase positive sentiment, which will subsequently lead to the breakthrough 124.50.

 

Technical levels: Support - 124.00 ; Resistance - 124.50.

 

Trading recommendations: 1. Buy - 124.30; SL - 124.10; TP1 - 125.60; TP2 - 126.00.

 

usdjpyh4-TN.png

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for August 18

 

Open positions:

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 124.30, TAKE PROFIT 125.86, STOP LOSS 123.75

 

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9750, TAKE PROFIT 0.9984, STOP LOSS 0.9639

 

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3055, TAKE PROFIT 1.3303, STOP LOSS 1.2938

 

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 138.20, TAKE PROFIT 140.03, STOP LOSS 137.32

 

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7122, TAKE PROFIT 0.6894, STOP LOSS 0.7181

 

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0635, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0749

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 194.20, TAKE PROFIT 197.45, STOP LOSS 192.99

 

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6600, TAKE PROFIT 0.6403, STOP LOSS 0.6655

 

Trade ideas:

 

EUR/USD: Possibly BUY

 

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

 

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

 

__________________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for August 19

 

Kira Iukhtenko

 


 

Wednesday is going to be an important day for the US dollar. We will be watching the inflation data and the FOMC meeting minutes. The US currency could get fundamental support from the Chinese economic developments and the commodity rout extension.

 

GBP/USD has finally tested the levels above 1.5700 after the upbeat UK inflation releases. CPI added 0.1%, while the core CPI surged to 1.2% (5-months high). Price growth raised hopes for the BOE rate hike in the near future. Fix above 1.5700 would open the way to our next target of 1.5790.

 

There are no important releases to watch in the euro area until Friday. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is testing the 1.1050 support as we write (100-day MA). Fix below would trigger a move to 1.0820. Fed’s expectations will play the biggest part in the coming days.

 

RBA meeting minutes released on Tuesday showed the central bank is satisfied with the AUD depreciation. We see space for more downside in the coming sessions. China’s risks will influence the Aussie, so the pair AUD/USD targets 0.7315.

 

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Posted
MARKET NEWS

 

Key currency options

19 August 2015

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: 1.1000 (EUR 611m), 1.1040 (346m), 1.1100 (271m), 1.1150 (154m)

 

GBP/USD: 1.5700 (GBP 135m)

 

USD/JPY: 124.00 (USD 528m), 124.50 (385m), 125.00 (334m), 126.00 (727m)

 

USD/CHF: 0.9800 (USD 480m)

 

USD/CAD: 1.3050 (USD 398m), 1.3100 (133m), 1.3150 (200m), 1.3185 (191m)

 

AUD/USD: 0.7295 (AUD 249m), 0.7360 (163m)

 

EUR/JPY: 136.75 (EUR 247m), 137.00 (153m), 137.50 (200m)

 

EUR/GBP: 0.6900 (EUR 1.2bln), 0.6975/80 (200m)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Euro trading inside cloud

19 August 2015

 

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

EURUSD made its way into the four-hour cloud area yesterday, after the bulls failed to break through the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen lines resistance. The support formed by the cloud's lower border around 1.1010 was tested yesterday as well. So far, the level is retained by the bulls, however, the short-term trend is determined by the dead cross. Let us also note that at the current levels, the buyers' progress will be hindered by both the cloud's upper border and Tenkan-sen, in the ​​1.1070 area. And the 11th figure contains the Kijun-sen resistance. The bulls might attempt to move into the positive area today, but further trading is obvious to continue within the cloud.

 

Technical levels: support – 1.1000; resistance – 1.1070, 1.1100.

 

Trade recommendations: out of market.

 

eurusdh4-TN.png

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Pound attempting to grow

19 August 2015

 

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

The GBP/USD currency pair found support at 1.5560 yesterday. It is here that a powerful level has been formed by the Ichimoku cloud upper border on the four-hour timeframe. Supported by the positive cloud, the bulls took it as a signal for purchases, making the pair finally break through the notorious 1.5650 resistance. The daily high was set at 1.5716 but then the market returned to the 1.5650 mark to test the Kijun-sen line support.

 

Obviously, the bullish sentiment might increase in the near future. The goal for purchases may be the 1.5780/90 mark.

 

Technical levels: support – 1.5650; resistance – 1.5730, 1.5780.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 1.5670; SL — 1.5650; TP1 — 1.5730; TP2 — 1.5780.

 

gbpusdh4-TN.png

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for August 20

 

US CPI data came in at 0.1% for headline and core, below the 0.2% estimates, but real average earnings rose from 1.8% to 2.2% helping US dollar recover after the initial sip. Traders are also positioning for the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday – the market is probably pricing in a more hawkish statement. Traders will be looking for the indication of how many central bank members lean towards September rate hike. Comments about the labor market and inflation will be also important. On Thursday there will be another bunch of American economic statistics: unemployment claims at 12:30 GMT and existing home sales and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (positive forecast) at 14:00 GMT.

 

EUR/USD continued its way below the 100-day MA at 1.1048. The German Bundestag has voted in favor of the third bailout for Greece. Greece is scheduled to repay 3.5 billion euro to the European Central Bank (ECB). Support is at 1.1015/1.1000 and 1.0950. Resistance is at 1.1050, 1.1090/1.1100 and 1.1130. The pair has topped last week, but the euro still has underlying strength, so the bearish bias may soften.

 

GBP/USD jumped on Tuesday, but failed to close above 1.5700 mark. Only a close above this point will bring the pair to 1.5785/1.5815. UK will release retail sales data at 08:30 GMT (positive forecast). Support is at 1.5590 (55-day MA). 

 

USD/JPY made a spike down towards 124.00, but then recovered to 124.40. Resistance is at 124.50 (50% of the decline after Chinese yuan devaluation) and then at 124.70 and 124.90/125.00. The instability in China supports demand for the yen as a safe haven and limits the pair’s advance. The Bank of Japan meeting will take place on Thursday. In its recent comments, the regulator hinted that it was no planning to increase monetary stimulus as the yen has already weakened much. If the Bank of Japan sticks to this position, the advance of USD/JPY will remain limited. Long USD positions here seem risky.    

 

AUD/USD is getting ready for a break of either 0.7315 or 0.7375. Support will likely come under pressure.

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Aussie held above cloud

20 August 2015

 

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

The AUD/USD currency pair has been trying desperately to consolidate above the four-hour Ichimoku cloud in the recent days. The main support was at the 0.7320 level, which the bulls had been firmly holding since Tuesday.

 

Given the generally positive Ichimoku indicator, a break trhough the Tenkan and Kijun lines resistance in the 0.7360 area might inspire buyers that would choose the short-term level of 0.7450 as their goal. However, currently the Tenkan and Kijun lines are quite firmly keeping the dead cross relevant. Therefore, purchases will be possible only after the prices fix above the Kijun line.

 

Technical levels: support –  0.7330/40 resistance – 0.7380, 0.7400, 0.7415, 0.7440.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 0.7350; SL — 0.7330; TP1 — 0.7400; TP2 — 0.7440.

 

AUDUSDH4-TN.png

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Dollar weakened against Yen

20 August 2015

 

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

The USD/JPY currency pair rate plummeted into the negative area yesterday after all, below the four-hour Ichimoku cloud. The bulls were trying desperately to keep the prices in the ​​cloud area, taking advantage of the lower border support around ​​124.10, but the bears turned out stronger. As a result, the pair has updated the three-week lows, having gone down to the 123.67 mark.

 

The bearish sentiment is obvious to prevail in the market in the near future since the Ichimoku cloud has changed for the negative and the Tenkan and Kijun lines have formed a dead cross. The Senkou Span B line retest migth make new sales possible.

 

Technical levels: support – 123.50; resistance – 124.00.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 124.00; SL — 124.20; TP1 — 123.50; TP2 — 123.10.

 

usdjpyh4-TN.png

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

GBP/USD: forecast for August 24 - 30

21 August 2015


Kira Iukhtenko

 

Improved UK inflation data and a declining dollar supported the British pound over the past week. GBP/USD reached 1.5-month highs above 1.5700 (prior strong resistance). The market is now forming a long-legged candle on the weekly chart (bullish signal). It is important for us whether the pound will be able to fix above 1.5730 (trend line on the chart). Next bullish targets could be seen at 1.5800/10 and 1.5870 (50% Fibonacci from the 2014-2015 decline) in this case.

 

gbpusd%20daily.png

 

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

 

British government is gradually preparing for a rate hike, pushing the exchange rate higher. However, you should keep in mind that increased risk aversion and weak US figures could force the Fed to delay the first rate hike. Bank of England will likely follow its US counterpart, switching the hike expectations back into 2016. That’s why we don’t expect the bulls to stay in the sterling for too long.

 

Next week we'll be watching UK Q2 GDP (second estimate) and the news from the United States.

 

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