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Forex Analytics

 

GBP/USD: forecast for July 6-12

 

Kira Iukhtenko

 

GBP/USD declined for a second consecutive week in a row. The pair was pressured by the dovish BOE comments – according to the BOE Governor Marc Carney, the rate could stay low for “some time”. What’s more, the Greek factor remains a nuisance for the pound. Any negative developments in Greece over the weekend will send the cable lower on Monday.

 

GBP/USD is forming a bearish wedge on the weekly chart. It could be broken to the downside in the coming days. Major support lies at 1.5500. We’ll remain bearish below 1.5900.

 

On the new week, the market dynamics will depend on the Greek story and on the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. As for the UK releases, watch the annual budget release on Wednesday and the BOE meeting on Thursday.

 

GBPUSDDaily%20-%20July%203.png

 

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Forex Analytics

 

EUR/USD: forecast for July 6-12

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

Greece remains in the limelight. The nation missed a 1.5 billion euro repayment to the IMF on June 30 and went into a technical default. Greek authorities surprised the market by announcing referendum on austerity measures on Sunday, July 5. In case of a “Yes” vote the current government of Alexis Tsipras might resign and the technocratic authorities will be appointed to secure a deal with creditors. If the Greeks say “No” as Tsipras is urging them to, Greece’s financial system will collapse and it will likely have to leave the euro area.

 

The results of the opinion polls change from day to day. On the one hand, the nation’s population is tired of spending cuts and other tough measures. On the other hand, people are afraid of the turmoil which will start if they reject bailout.

 

Greek%20referendum.png

 

The biggest risk for Greece is the poor state of its banking system. Greek banks stayed shut during the past week and are to reopen on Tuesday, July 7. However, the lenders are running out of money. Greek companies have serious troubles with import.

 

All in all, the prospects of the euro look grim regardless of the outcome of the Greek vote. The “No” vote will make EUR/USD go down to 1.0800 and probably lower. The “Yes” vote may provoke a spike in the euro to 1.1350/1.1550. Here investors will once again start selling the euro, because political problems won’t end here. Don’t forget that Greece has to pay 3.5 billion euro to the ECB on July 20. This won’t let the relief last long.

 

EURUSD.png

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

USD/JPY: forecast fot July 6-12

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

As expected, USD/JPY had a volatile week. Risk sentiment was negative because of the uncertain future of Greece and decline in Chinese stocks. The pair was also moved by the economic data from America: there were good figures on Wednesday, but disappointing labor market figures on Thursday. At the same time, the NFP was still above 200K. As a result, many players will continue expecting the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in September.

 

Next week Japan’s economic calendar will be rather empty. We can only pick out current account on Wednesday and core machinery orders on Thursday. It’s more important to watch the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting due on Wednesday. The start of the week will be determined by the outcome of the Greek bailout vote: we may see another opening gap. The closer Greece is to leaving the euro area, the stronger will be negative pressure on the US dollar versus the yen.

 

Technically USD/JPY is forming a wedge-like descending trend which will remain corrective as long as the pair is above the 122.00/121.75/121.55 zone. Here the pair will be supported by the daily Ichimoku Cloud, so the bulls will defend these levels with much force. Further support is at 120.95 and 120.50. On the daily chart the pair formed the bullish “hammer” on Tuesday, but a bearish “shooting star” on Thursday. On the upside resistance is at 123.50/70 and the key one at 124.46/50 which guards the way to June highs at 125.85.

 

USDJPY.png

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

US dollar: forecast for July 6-12

 

Kira Iukhtenko

 

Mixed labor market data on Thursday capped the US Dollar growth. May Non-farm payrolls came out at 223K – this is solid result. Unemployment fell to 5.3% - this is the lowest level since 2008. However, wage growth and labor participation rate disappointed to the downside.

 

All in all the employment figures still leave a September rate hike on the table. However, the Fed still needs to see the June data to confirm a positive trend. The Greek drama remains a “dark horse” for the market. Further negative developments in Greece will likely postpone the Fed’s rate hike expectations. According to the CME data, the futures market reflects only a 12% rate hike chance for September and a 49% chance for December.

 

However, the picture could change dramatically after the FOMC meeting minutes release on Wednesday, July 8. We could get some bullish surprises out of there. You should also watch the US non-manufacturing PMI and trade balance on the new week.

 

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Posted
MARKET NEWS

 

Euro hit by the Greek "No" vote

6 July 2015

 

On Monday, the market attention is glued to the euro zone’s internal issues. Probability of the Greek exit from the Eurozone surged after 61% of the Greek voters rejected the austerity measures on the referendum on Sunday. European leaders will hold emergent meetings on Monday and on Tuesday to discuss the new options. Meanwhile, the Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis stepped down, citing the creditors’ unwillingness to involve him in further negotiations.

 

Level of uncertainty remains very high. The euro crosses gapped lower on the news, but have recovered some ground in the early trade. EUR/USD opened with a 115 pips bearish gap at 1.0990 before recovering to 1.1090. Traders should be monitoring developments in the euro zone with plenty of news to come.

 

Meanwhile in China, stock market paused its decline due to the aggressive governmental intervention. The People’s Bank of China committed to support the brokerage houses with liquidity. As a result, China’s 21 largest brokerages announced they are buying stocks on the market to prevent a new market drop. 

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for July 7

 

Kira Iukhtenko

 

Market attention is glued to Greece at the beginning of the new week. Greek people voted against the austerity measures on Sunday. As a result, market expectations for Grexit surged. EU authorities will hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday to discuss the options available on the table. The next deadline for Greece comes on July 20. The country owes 2.5 bln euros to ECB.

 

EUR/USD opened the week with a bearish gap below 1,1000, but closed it when the dust settled a little bit. The market still believes that the Greek crisis could be resolved with negotiations. Euro met resistance at the 100-hor MA below 1,1100, however. Support is seen at 1,1030 and 1,0950. Market dynamics on Tuesday will be defined by the Greek-related headlines.

 

GBP/USD also managed to close the morning gap, recovering above1,5600 on the weak US non-manufacturing PMI. Watch the UK manufacturing production figures tomorrow (forecast – positive). Watch the trend resistance at 1,5680, however. We remain bearish below 1,5900.

 

USD/JPY tested the 122,00 support in Asia, but regained ground rather quickly.  Resistance – 123,40 and 123,70, support - 121,80. AUD/USD dipped to a 6-year high at0,7460 on Monday,but crawled back into the green zone. RBA meeting will be held on Tuesday – no rate cut expected.

 

As for the United States, don’t miss the May trade balance on Tuesday and the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. 

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

GBP/AUD: buy target - 2.1000

7 July 2015

 

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-GBP/AUD reached buy target 2.0550

-Next buy target - 2.1000

 

GBP/AUD recently broke sharply above the resistance level 2.0550, which was set as the buy target in our previous technical analysis report for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level greatly accelerated the active minor impulse wave (v) – which belongs to the 3rd minor impulse 3 from the start of May.

 

GBP/AUD is likely to rise further in the active impulse wave 3 toward the next buy target at the resistance level 2.1000 (intersecting with the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from May). Strong support remains at 2.0550.

 

GBPAUD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Ju

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

USD/CAD: buy target – 1.2800

7 July 2015

 

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-USD/CAD reached buy targets 1.2560 and 1.2650

-Next buy target – 1.2800

 

USD/CAD has been rising strongly in the last few trading sessions – breaking through the resistance levels 1.2560 and 1.2650 – both of which were set as the buy targets in our previous forecast for this currency pair. Each of these resistance breakouts intensified the bullish pressure on this currency pair - accelerating the active minor impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the 3rd intermediate impulse (3) from last month.

 

USD/CAD is likely to rise further inside the active accelerated impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next buy target at the strong resistance level 1.2800 (which reversed previous waves 3, (5) and (B) in March).

 

USDCAD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Ju

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for July 8

 

Kira Iukhtenko

 


 

USD Index jumped above the 97 mark on Tuesday as the Greek issue leaves the market worried. For now, no decision on Greece has been made. Another risk factor for the market is the Chinese stock market collapse. Investors are seeking the safe currencies, such as the US dollar and the yen.

 

EUR/USD fell to 1.0910 amid the increased uncertainty. The market is trying to fix below the important support at 1.1050. We could see a quick drop to 1.0820 if no solution is found on the Tuesday’s EU summit. Euro zone’s economic calendar is empty until the end of the week, so all eyes on Greece and on the US data.

 

GBP/USD followed the euro, slipping to 1.5420. Road to 1.5200 is now open, resistance lies at 1.5500. UK manufacturing figures added to the market pessimism on Tuesday. On Wednesday UK will release its’ renewed annual budget.

 

AUD/USD is testing fresh 6-year lows around 0.7400. Reserve Bank of Australia left monetary policy unchanged today. However, the Chinese stock collapse and the falling iron ore prices make us believe a rate cut is yet to come. We target 0.7000 in the coming weeks.

 

USD/JPY returned to the 122.00 as investors are in love with the safe assets today. Support is seen at – 121.80. Be careful – the Bank of Japan is not interested in an excessive yen’s strength. Resistance – 123.40.

 

Watch the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. The release will likely influence the market.

 

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Posted
MARKET NEWS

 

Markets await Greece, FOMC

8 July 2015

 

Collapse of the Chinese stock market is hurting the global risk sentiment. Shanghai Composite index fell to 3500 points in the opening hours. Chinese government seems to have lost grip over the market.

Greece remains another market pain. Negotiations are continuing in Brussels on Wednesday to try to find a solution to Greece's debt crisis after the “No” vote on the Sunday's referendum. Markets are awaiting the Greek revised economic program.

FOMC June 16-17 minutes will be released tonight. You should also listen to the Fed’s member Williams tonight. Perhaps he will comment the possible impact of the global uncertainty on the Fed’s policy. 

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for July 8

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1057, TAKE PROFIT 1.0819 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.1124

 

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 122.46, TAKE PROFIT 121.05, STOP LOSS 123.20

 

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9412, TAKE PROFIT 0.9573 (revied), STOP LOSS 0.9395 (revised)

 

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 135.95, TAKE PROFIT 133.10, STOP LOSS 136.15 (revised)

 

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3930, TAKE PROFIT 1.4163, STOP LOSS 1.3800

 

Trade ideas:

 

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5520, TAKE PROFIT 1.5365, STOP LOSS 1.5615

 

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7180, TAKE PROFIT 0.6989, STOP LOSS 0.7219

 

EUR/CHF: Look to BUY

 

GBP/JPY: Look to SELL

 

AUD/USD: Look to SELL

 

USD/CAD: Look to BUY

 

__________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Euro updating lows

8 July 2015

 

By Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

During yesterday's trading, the main currency pair on Forex has updated lows. A new extremum for the past five weeks has been recorded at the 1.0910. level. Thus, the downtrend is gaining momentum.

 

The Ichimoku indicator on the four-hour timeframe is fully bearish. Thus, the Ichimoku cloud has significantly expanded downwards, clearly indicating continuation of the downtrend in the long run. The Tenkan and Kijun lines have also formed a new dead cross, supporting the short-termers.

 

At the same time, the pair rolled back to Kijun-sen yesterday, into the 1.1000 area, due to its oversoldness. But powerful resistance has stopped the bulls. Therefore, the current levels may be a starting point for new sales.

 

Technical levels: support – 1.0900; сопротивление – 1.1000.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 1.1000; SL — 1.1020; TP1 — 1.0900; TP2 — 1.0850.

 

eurusdh4-TN.png

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Pound plummeting

8 July 2015

 

By Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

The recent bearish pressure on the British currency has had its consequences. During yesterday's trading, the GBP/USD currency pair has tumbled into the 54th figure area, breaking through the 1.5550 support of the four-hour Ichimoku cloud lower border.

 

During this period, the cloud has changed its character to downward, clearly defining the bearish trend in the market. The dead cross formed by the Tenkan and Kijun lines a week earlier is active as well.

 

Under such circumstances, we are obvious to expect further decline of the currency pair rate, up until the 53rd figure.

 

Technical levels: support – 1.5320, 1.5270; resistance – 1.5450, 1.5500.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 1.5420; SL — 1.5450; TP1 — 1.5320; TP2 — 1.5270.

 

gbpusdh4-TN.png

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Trading plan for July 9

 

Kira Iukhtenko

 


 

Market sentiment on Greece improved on Wednesday as the Greek government has finally applied for a third aid program. No details have been announced yet, but this is an important step towards the long-awaited solution. Market is already pricing in the positive outcome. As a result, demand for the safe US dollar declined.

 

Meanwhile, China’s stock crisis is gaining traction. Shanghai Composite stock index dipped to a new low of 3500 on Wednesday. Japanese yen strengthened significantly as the speculative capital is flooding from China to safe Japan.

 

Late on Wednesday, don’t miss the FOMC minutes release and the Fed’s member Williams speech. US Dollar could recover on Thursday in case if there are some hints on a policy tightening coming in September. Tomorrow watch the unemployment claims in the United States.

 

EUR/USD

 

-Trying to fix above 1.1050 (trend line)

-If it does – buy with a target of 1.1100 on Greek optimism

-Bearish targets are 1.0910, 1.0820

-There are no releases in euro zone, monitor the Greek headlines

 

GBP/USD

 

-Pound is being sold aggressively on the technical factors

-Brokebelow38,2% Fibonacci

-Local support has been formed at 1.5350

-Hold short from 1.5400, target 1.5200, stop 1.5520

-BOE meeting on Thursday (no changes expected)

 

USD/JPY

 

-Fell by more than 150 on China’s woes, broke below the 121.70 support

-Found some buying interest at the 100-day MA (121.00)

-Break lower would pave the ground to 120.00 (trend support)

-Resistance– 122.40, 123.30

-Watch the Fed’s news and China

 

AUD/USD

 

-Tested a fresh 6-year low of 0,7370

-Resistance – 0,7530, we target 0,7000 in the coming weeks

-Iron ore price collapsed by 10% today

-Thursday: Australia labor market data, China’s CPI

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Trading plan for July 10

 

Kira Iukhtenko

 


 

Market sentiment improved on Thursday, as the Greek question seems to close to an end. Greek government is on its way to find a compromise with the European creditors. China’s stock market retraced higher after days of a dramatic decline, adding to the market optimism. Demand for the US dollar remains limited after the FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday. Commodities and risky currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) have recovered some ground on Thursday amid the improved market picture.

 

EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1050, trying to fix higher. Resistance lies at 1.1100/30. The pair could dip to 1.0910 and 1.0820 in case if the Greek optimism lowers. GBP/USD has also recovered some ground after the yesterday’s drop, but holds below 38.2% Fibonacci (1.5400). Key resistance lies at 1.5500, support – at 1.5300. Fundamentally, the market will now be waiting for the BOE minutes release on July 22.

 

On Friday, the market dynamics will be defined by the Asian morning. The upbeat sentiment could persist. 

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

USD/JPY: buy target - 122.50

10 July 2015

 

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-USD/JPY reversed from support zone

-Next buy target - 122.50

 

 USD/JPY yesterday reversed up sharply from the support zone located between the price level 120.00 and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward price move from last December (as you can see below). The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line – standing well outside of the lower daily Bollinger Band – which strengthened this bullish signal.

 

USD/JPY is likely to rise further - in line with the strong uptrend visible on the daily charts – toward the next buy target at the resistance level 122.50.

 

USDJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Ju

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

CHF/JPY: buy targets - 130.00 and 131.60

10 July 2015

 

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

-CHF/JPY reversed from support level 128.20

-Next buy target - 130.00 and 131.60

 

CHF/JPY yesterday reversed up from the support zone lying between the following support levels: the support trendline of the daily up channel from March, the lower daily Bollinger Band, 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 and the support level 128.20 (which reversed the pair multiple times in May, as you can see below).

 

CHF/JPY is likely to continue to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy targets 130.00 and 131.60 (former support level which reversed (a) wave in June).

 

CHFJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Ju

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for July 14

 

Open positions:*

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.48, TAKE PROFIT 124.45, STOP LOSS 123.10

 

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7455, TAKE PROFIT 0.7268, STOP LOSS 0.7510

 

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2720, TAKE PROFIT 1.2957, STOP LOSS 1.2655 (revised)

 

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 135.45, TAKE PROFIT 139.17, STOP LOSS 135.39

 

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0470, TAKE PROFIT 1.0574, STOP LOSS 1.0419

 

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3930, TAKE PROFIT 1.4490, STOP LOSS 1.3955 (revised)

 

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6770, TAKE PROFIT 0.6590, STOP LOSS 0.6820

 

Trade ideas:

 

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5545, TAKE PROFIT 1.5330, STOP LOSS 1.5591

 

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.1056, TAKE PROFIT 1.0916, STOP LOSS 1.1092

 

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7136, TAKE PROFIT 0.6945, STOP LOSS 0.7191

 

GBP/JPY: BUY at 190.80, TAKE PROFIT 193.53, STOP LOSS 189.65

 

USD/CHF: BUY lower

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for July 20

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1000, TAKE PROFIT 1.0785, STOP LOSS 1.1041

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.95, TAKE PROFIT 125.38, STOP LOSS 123.25

 

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7455, TAKE PROFIT 0.7268, STOP LOSS 0.7447 (revised)

 

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0430, TAKE PROFIT 1.0315, STOP LOSS 1.0470

 

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3930, TAKE PROFIT 1.4490, STOP LOSS 1.3955

 

Trade ideas:

 

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9557, TAKE PROFIT 0.9743, STOP LOSS 0.9470

 

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2888, TAKE PROFIT 1.3102, STOP LOSS 1.2815

 

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.6620, TAKE PROFIT 0.6403, STOP LOSS 0.6695

 

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

 

GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY

 

EUR/JPY: Possibly SELL

 

________________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for July 21

 

 


 

EUR/USD paused in the 1.0818 area (May low) as Greece made debt repayments to the ECB and the IMF. Support is in the 1.0750/10 region ahead of 1.0660. Resistance is at 1.0915 and 1.0965. With empty economic calendars in the US and the euro area traders await more comments and news on Greek bailout.

 

GBP/USD slid to the 55-day MA in the 1.5540 zone after last week it met resistance in the 1.5675 area. The next important event for the British currency is the publication of the Bank of England’s meeting minutes on Wednesday. The minutes will give us more insight into the BoE’s mindset after Governor Carney’s hawkish comments last week. If other members of British central bank don’t share Carney’s optimism, pound will decline. If not, sterling will fight dollar’s strength. Ahead of the release we expect more sideways trading. Support for cable is at 1.5500 and 1.5450, while resistance lies at 1.5675 and 1.5700.

 

More hawkish comments from the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen and relief in Greece made USD/JPY continue its V-shaped recovery and rise above 124.00. Resistance is at 124.50 and 125.00. Support is at 123.70, 123.30 and 122.90. There won’t be any important releases either in the US or in Japan on Tuesday, so watch the risk sentiment and the development of the Greek story.

 

AUD/USD dipped to 0.7327. Aussie was affected by the sharp decline in gold price. Gold fell by $50 on Monday as the stop orders were hit in the situation of low liquidity. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its July policy meeting on Tuesday. Watch this publication for hints whether the RBA will move from the position of more easing to the more neutral view. Technically, after AUD/USD made a break to the downside this month, it remains under negative pressure. Resistance at 0.7500/0.7586 will limit the pair on the upside. Sell on the recovery.

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for July 21

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1000, TAKE PROFIT 1.0742, STOP LOSS 1.0965

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.95, TAKE PROFIT 125.38, STOP LOSS 123.89

 

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5625, TAKE PROFIT 1.5815, STOP LOSS 1.5535

 

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9610, TAKE PROFIT 0.9719, STOP LOSS 0.9555

 

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7455, TAKE PROFIT 0.7268, STOP LOSS 0.7447

 

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0430, TAKE PROFIT 1.0315, STOP LOSS 1.0470

 

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3930, TAKE PROFIT 1.4490, STOP LOSS 1.3955

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 193.75, TAKE PROFIT 195.88, STOP LOSS 192.65

 

Trade ideas:

 

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2888, TAKE PROFIT 1.3102, STOP LOSS 1.2815

 

EUR/JPY: SELL at 135.20, TAKE PROFIT 133.10, STOP LOSS 135.60

 

EUR/GBP: SELL higher

 

NZD/USD: SELL higher

 

__________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for July 22

 

Kira Iukhtenko

 


 

Economic calendar on Tuesday was rather light, while the global sentiment improved due to a decline in Greek voes and China headlines. Shanghai Composite added 0.6% today. As a result, we’ve seen recovery in all classes of the risky assets.

 

US Dollar index declined from the yesterday’s peak of 98.30. Watch the existing home sales data and crude oil inventories tomorrow. We expect the greenback to resume the bullish move in the coming sessions.

 

EUR/USD has recovered from a 3-month low of 1.0808 towards 1.0890, but we see this move as a corrective one. We stay bearish below 1.1000 and recommend selling euro at the current levels.

 

GBP/USD consolidates around 1.5500. On Wednesday, we’ll watch the Bank of England meeting minutes closely. On Thursday, the retail sales figures will be in focus. Resistance lies at 1.5670, while a break below 1.5500 could open the way to 1.5200.

 

USD/JPY is hanging at the June highs of 124.50. The US dollar lacked a bullish impulse today, but we believe the market could break higher in the coming sessions. Major support lies at 122.00.

 

AUD/USD has also recovered some ground despite the dovish RBA comments. NZD/USD rose above 0.6600. Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its monetary decision on Thursday – a rate cut is very likely. This could hit all the commodity block currencies. 

 

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Posted
MARKET NEWS

 

Bank of Japan: no easing is needed

22 July 2015

 

US dollar is steady on Wednesday after it declined on Tuesday.

 

EUR/USD rose to resistance in the 1.0965 area. The euro gained as the bad mood caused by the Greek situation gradually dissolves.

 

USD/JPY slid to 123.55. The Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that he expected inflation to meet the central bank’s 2% target and dismissed the idea of more quantitative easing.

 

Gold price stabilized above $1090 supporting commodity currencies like Australian and New Zealand’s dollars. AUD/USD recovered to 0.7430 after a dip to 0.7370. Australia’s inflation figures released today allow the Reserve Bank of Australia to continue cutting interest rates if needed. At the same time, the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that too much easing could lead to longer-term dangers through risk-taking and excessive borrowing.

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for July 22

 

Open positions:*

 

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9610, TAKE PROFIT 0.9719, STOP LOSS 0.9555

 

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7420, TAKE PROFIT 0.7599, STOP LOSS 0.7355

 

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3930, TAKE PROFIT 1.4490, STOP LOSS 1.3955

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 192.35, TAKE PROFIT 195.88, STOP LOSS 191.68

 

Trade ideas:

 

USD/JPY: SELL at 123.95, TAKE PROFIT 122.92, STOP LOSS 124.55

 

EUR/JPY: SELL at 135.89, TAKE PROFIT 134.33, STOP LOSS 136.45

 

EUR/CHF: BUY at 1.0445, TAKE PROFIT 1.0574, STOP LOSS 1.0395

 

EUR/USD: Possibly BUY

 

GBP/USD: Possibly SELL

 

USD/CAD: Possibly SELL

 

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

 

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

 

_____________________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing-stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Goldman Sachs: gold prices will fall below $1000

22 July 2015

 

According to Goldman Sachs' head of commodity research Jeffrey Currie, gold price will likely fall below $1000 for the first time since 2009. "With the more positive outlook on the dollar, and with debasement risk starting to fade, the demand to use gold as a diversifying asset against the U.S. dollar becomes less and less important", Currie believes.

 

The yellow metall and the other commodity assets entered a structural bearish trend, analyst forecasts. He recommends going short in a long-term prospect.

 

Gold hit a new 5-year low of $1090 on Wednesday. Fed's rate hike expectations and China's slowdown are the key bearish factors.

 

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