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Forex Analytics

 

Trading plan for June 9

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

 


 

US Dollar is retracing lower on Monday following the sharp growth on Friday. However, we do not expect the bearish correction to be long-lived: strong NFP and average hourly earnings made the markets believe that the Fed could raise the interest rate in September. The market is now looking forward to the retail sales release on Thursday. Forecast is upbeat (+1.1%), so the greenback could get another boost.

 

EUR/USD recovered towards the 1.1200 mark from the Friday’s low of 1.1050. German bond yields returned to growth following the strong manufacturing figures. However, we expect the decline to resume soon: break below 1.1050 could open the way to 1.0820.

 

GBP/USD found some support at 1.5200, but we expect the pair to extend the decline this week. Watch the UK trade balance on Tuesday. Break below the 1.5200 support will open the way to 1.5080. We’ll remain bearish below 1.5450.

 

USD/JPY retraced from the Friday’s peak of 125.85, but holds above the 125.00 support. The pair remains overbought, so we could see a dip to 124.60 in the coming sessions. This area could be a good point to rebuy the US dollar.

 

AUD/USD has once again found support at 0.7600. Next resistance lies at 0.7740 и 0.7810. Watch the Australia’s business confidence index and home loans tomorrow. Data could surprise the market to the downside. What’s more, China is scheduled to release May CPI and PPI (forecasts – negative). 

 

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Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for June 9

 

Open positions:*

 

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7745, TAKE PROFIT 0.7572, STOP LOSS 0.7730

 

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2460, TAKE PROFIT 1.2667, STOP LOSS 1.2360

 

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 139.50, TAKE PROFIT 141.72, STOP LOSS 138.85 (revised)

 

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5300, TAKE PROFIT 1.5089, STOP LOSS 1.5375

 

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3850, TAKE PROFIT 1.4225, STOP LOSS 1.3690

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 189.80, TAKE PROFIT 193.17, STOP LOSS 189.55

 

Trade ideas:

 

EUR/USD: BUY at 1.1235, TAKE PROFIT 1.1380, STOP LOSS 1.1150

 

USD/JPY: BUY at 124.05, TAKE PROFIT 125.86, STOP LOSS 123.40

 

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7322 (revised), TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7249

 

USD/CHF: Possibly SELL

 

EUR/CHF: Possibly BUY

 

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

 

______________________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
MARKET NEWS

 

Euro is supported by German data

9 June 2015

 

US dollar weakened versus its counterparts on Tuesday. On Monday US President Barack Obama denied a report that quoted him as saying the strong dollar was “a problem”. Still, the speculation has given many traders a reason to close USD longs.

 

EUR/USD rose to 1.1315. The single currency went up as German industrial production increased by 0.9% in May (forecast: +0.6%) and Bund yields rose to 0.89%. Uncertainty about Greece continues to limit the euro on the upside. Athens didn’t make any new proposal to its creditors.

 

USD/JPY eased down to 124.30. Japanese Economics Minister Akira Amari said that it was up to financial markets to decide whether currencies were moving in line with economic fundamentals.

 

AUD/USD failed to hold above 0.7700 despite the fact that Australian business confidence rebounded to a 9-month high in May and home loans gained in April more than expected. Inflation in China, Australia’s main trade partner, came out lower than expected (1.2% vs. 1.5% in the previous period).

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

BNP Paribas: stay long on USD

9 June 2015

 

The US dollar retraced all the last week's post-NFP gains at the beginning of the new week. That's how analysts at the French bank BNP Paribas explain the USD dynamics:

 

"US 2-year Treasury yields dipped to the pre-NFP levels. It means that the markets still don't believe in a rate hike before December 2015. Dovish FOMC comments, delivered last week, contributed to the investors' pessimism".

 

However, analysts recommend holding the USD longs ahead of the May retail sales data on Thursday: "Market sentiment will quickly change if the retail sales data look more like  the NFP, than like the Q1 GDP. There are a lot of indications that the retail figures could come out strong in May". 

 

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Posted
MARKET NEWS

 

Yen rose on Kuroda's comments

10 June 2015

 

EUR/USD is little changed just below 1.1300. Market players are concerned about the lack of progress in negotiations between Greece and its creditors. A new reform proposal submitted by the nation this week failed to fully satisfy its European partners. Talks in Brussels with creditors were expected to continue today.

 

USD/JPY fell to 122.50 as the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the yen’s effective exchange rate is “very weak” and unlikely to weaken further. According to Kuroda, the Federal Reserve’s future rate hike is already priced in exchange rate.

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for June 10

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.1235, TAKE PROFIT 1.1380, STOP LOSS 1.1150

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 124.05, STOP LOSS 123.40, Possibly BUY

 

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0465, TAKE PROFIT 1.0602, STOP LOSS 1.0397

 

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3850, TAKE PROFIT 1.4225, STOP LOSS 1.3690

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 190.85, STOP LOSS 190.35, Possibly BUY

 

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7745, TAKE PROFIT 0.7572, STOP LOSS 0.7730

 

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 139.50, STOP LOSS 138.99, Possibly BUY

 

Trade ideas:

 

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5280, TAKE PROFIT 1.5498, STOP LOSS 1.5215

 

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2310, TAKE PROFIT 1.2473, STOP LOSS 1.2230

 

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7322, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7249

 

NZD/USD: SELL higher

 

USD/CHF: Possibly SELL

 

____________________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

GBP/USD: likely to rise to 1.5500

10 June 2015

 

By: Dima Chernovolov

 

-GBP/USD reversed up from support level 1.5200

-Further gains likely toward 1.5500

 

GBP/USD continues to rise after the recent upward reversal from the support zone lying between the support level 1.5200, the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward price impulse from April. This support zone also previously reversed the price at the start of this month – as you can see below.

 

GBP/USD is likely to rise further toward the next strong resistance level 1.5500 – from where the pair is likely to reverse down toward the next sell target at 1.5200.

 

GBPUSD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Ju

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for June 11

 

Kira Iukhtenko

 

On Wednesday, the US dollar retraced ground versus almost all the major currencies. The Bank of Japan governor Kuroda who said that the yen wouldn’t weaken much more provoked the move. As a result, USD/JPY plummeted from by 200 pips to 122.50. Afterwards the greenback depreciated against the other majors, especially the commodity block currencies.

 

Tomorrow the market will be focused on the US May retail sales data. According to the forecast, the indicator rose by 1,1% versus a 0% growth in the April. We expect the demand for the US currency to return ahead of the release.

 

EUR/USD holds above 1.1300 as the German yields still support the euro. Strong resistance is seen at 1.1500, while support is gathered around the 1.1050 mark. We expect the bearish pressure to resume on Thursday. There are no important releases on the euro zone’s agenda tomorrow.

 

GBP/USD jumped to 1.5550, testing the 200-day MA to the upside. The pair consolidates slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Data today showed the UK NIESR GDP estimate rose 0.6% in May, overcoming expectations of 0.4%. We would like to note that the cable’s rally has already become overstretched – beware of a sharp selloff tomorrow.

 

Tonight we’ll get a bunch of important news for the commodity block currencies. Watch the RBNZ policy decision (some expect a rate cut to be announced), Australia labor market data (employment is expected to grow by 12.1K) and Chinese May industrial production figures (forecast – upbeat). All in all, the risky currencies could suffer from the tomorrow’s US retail sales. Strong data will likely increase the Fed’s rate hike expectations. 

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

GBP/JPY: buy target – 194.00

12 June 2015

 

By: Dima Chernovolov

 

-GBP/JPY reached buy target 189.60

-Next buy target – 194.00

 

GBP/JPY recently reversed up sharply from the support area lying between the support level 189.60 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward price impulse from the middle of May (as you can see below). The support level 189.60 is also the former strong resistance level – which reversed the previous intermediate (A)-wave in December and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair.

 

GBP/JPY is likely to rise further in the active minor impulse wave 5 toward the next buy target 194.00. GBP/JPY will need to break the weekly up channel from 2014 to reach this target.

 

GBPJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Ju

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

NZD/JPY: buy target - 86.00

12 June 2015

 

By: Dima Chernovolov

 

-NZD/JPY reached sell target 87.00

-Next buy target - 86.00

 

NZD/JPY continues to decline after the recent breakout of the support level 87.00 – which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 (which belongs to the 3rd intermediate impulse (3) from May) - which earlier broke the pivotal support level 88.00 (which was mentioned in our previous forecast for NZD/JPY).

 

NZD/JPY is likely to fall further inside the active impulse wave 3 toward the next sell target 86.00. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the recently broken price level 87.00.

 

NZDJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Ju

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for June 15

 

Open positions:*

 

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT from 123.52, TAKE PROFIT 121.78, STOP LOSS 124.65

 

GBP/USD: Hold LONG from 1.5447, TAKE PROFIT 1.5700, STOP LOSS 1.5415 (revised)

 

AUD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.7705, TAKE PROFIT 0.7846, STOP LOSS 0.7635

 

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG from 1.3850, TAKE PROFIT 1.4225, STOP LOSS 1.3690

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 191.00, TAKE PROFIT 193.73, STOP LOSS 190.09

 

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT from 139.45, TAKE PROFIT 137.08, STOP LOSS 140.20

 

Trade ideas:

 

EUR/CHF: SELL at 1.0485, TAKE PROFIT 1.0312, STOP LOSS 1.0535

 

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7070, TAKE PROFIT 0.6878, STOP LOSS 0.7120

 

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2250, TAKE PROFIT 1.2442, STOP LOSS 1.2160

 

USD/CHF: Look to SELL

 

EUR/USD: Look to BUY

 

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

 

__________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for June 16

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1265, TAKE PROFIT 1.1050, STOP LOSS 1.1352

 

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 123.52, TAKE PROFIT 121.78, STOP LOSS 124.65

 

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5447, TAKE PROFIT 1.5700, STOP LOSS 1.5415

 

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9330, TAKE PROFIT 0.9543, STOP LOSS 0.9229

 

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7705, TAKE PROFIT 0.7846, STOP LOSS 0.7635

 

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2340, TAKE PROFIT 1.2529, STOP LOSS 1.2268

 

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 139.45, TAKE PROFIT 137.08, STOP LOSS 140.20

 

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3850, TAKE PROFIT 1.4225, STOP LOSS 1.3690

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 191.00, TAKE PROFIT 193.73, STOP LOSS 191.15 (revised)

 

Trade ideas:

 

EUR/CHF: BUY at 1.0470, TAKE PROFIT 1.0602, STOP LOSS 1.0420

 

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7070, TAKE PROFIT 0.6878, STOP LOSS 0.7120

 

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

 

__________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for June 17

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1265, TAKE PROFIT 1.1050, STOP LOSS 1.1352

 

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 123.52, TAKE PROFIT 121.78, STOP LOSS 124.20 (revised)

 

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5447, TAKE PROFIT 1.5700, STOP LOSS 1.5483 (revised)

 

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9330, TAKE PROFIT 0.9543, STOP LOSS 0.9229 

 

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7705, TAKE PROFIT 0.7846, STOP LOSS 0.7635

 

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2340, TAKE PROFIT 1.2529, STOP LOSS 1.2268

 

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 139.45, TAKE PROFIT 137.08, STOP LOSS 140.20

 

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0470, TAKE PROFIT 1.0602, STOP LOSS 1.0420

 

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3850, TAKE PROFIT 1.4225, STOP LOSS 1.3690

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 191.00, TAKE PROFIT 195.23 (revised), STOP LOSS 191.97 (revised)

 

Trade ideas:

 

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7056, STOP LOSS 0.7273

 

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.6998 (revised), TAKE PROFIT 0.6878, STOP LOSS 0.7060

 

______________________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

GBP/NZD: buy target - 2.2600

17 June 2015

 

By: Dima Chernovolov

 

-GBP/NZD reached buy targets 2.2200 and 2.2400

-Next buy target - 2.2600

 

GBP/NZD has been rising strongly in the last few trading sessions breaking through the resistance levels 2.2200 and 2.2400 – both of which were set as the buy targets in our previous forecast for this currency pair. Each of these successive resistance breakouts further accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 (which is a part of the 5th intermediate impulse (5) from May – belongs to the 3rd primary impulse ③ from last year).

 

With the accelerating daily Momentum, GBP/NZD is likely to rise further toward the next buy target 2.2600 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (5)).

 

GBPNZD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Ju

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

NZD/CAD: sell target - 0.8300

18 June 2015

 

By: Dima Chernovolov

 

-NZD/CAD approached support level 0.8400

-Next sell target - 0.8300

 

NZD/CAD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions – after breaking the support level 0.8700, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level intensified the bearish pressure on NZD/CAD – leading to the breakout of the next powerful support level 0.8600 – which further intensified the bearish pressure on this pair.

 

NZD/CAD is currently trading close to the support level 0.8400. If the price breaks this support level – it can then fall to the next support level 0.8300.

 

NZDCAD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Ju

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

NZD/CHF: sell target – 0.6200

18 June 2015

 

By: Dima Chernovolov

 

-NZD/CHF reached sell target 0.6450

-Next buy target – 0.6200

 

NZD/CHF yesterday broke sharply below the strong support level 0.6450 which previously stopped the sharp intermediate impulse wave (1) in January (as you can see below) and which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this instrument. The breakout of this support level is likely to intensify the bearish pressure on this currency pair in the coming trading sessions.

 

NZD/CHF is set to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 0.6200 (forecast price calculated for the termination of the active impulse waves 5 and (3)). Strong resistance remains at 0.64550.

 

NZDCHF%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Ju

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Trading plan for June 19

 

Kira Iukhtenko

 

The US Dollar is depreciating after the dovish Fed’s meeting on Wednesday. Inflation data released on Thursday added pressure: core CPI rose by only 0.1% in May. DXY fell below 94 points. Next support is seen at 93 points – these are the May lows.

 


 

EUR/USD rose above 1.1400 – market forgot about the Greek issue after the FOMC disappointment. Watch the Ecofin meeting headlines on Friday. Resistance for EUR/USD lies at 1.1530 – break higher could confirm an inverse “head-and-shoulders” formation with a strong bullish potential. Watch the 1.1050 support.

 

GBP/USD broke above the 1.5900 resistance, reaching its highest levels since 2014. We’ll see whether the cable manages to fix above 50% Fibonacci (1.5870). Support lies at 1.5800, while resistance – at 1.6000.

 

USD/JPY retraced down below 123 yen. Support lies around 122.40.Break lower could provoke a strong selloff. Watch the Bank of Japan meeting tonight.

 

AUD/USD surged above the 0.7800. We are not sure that the pair will be able to fix above here, but a weekly close could become a strong buying signal. 

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

GBP/AUD: buy target - 2.0600

19 June 2015

 

By: Dima Chernovolov

 

-GBP/AUD reached buy target 2.000

-Next buy target - 2.0600

 

GBP/AUD has been rising steadily in the last few trading sessions – following the earlier breakout of the major round resistance level 2.000 (which stopped the previous intermediate impulse (1) in February and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The price earlier reversed up with the daily Morning Star from the support zone between the support level 1.9700 and 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of previous impulse from May.

 

GBP/AUD is likely to rise further inside the active impulse wave 3 toward the next buy target 2.0600 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (iii)).

 

GBPAUD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Ju

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

NZD/USD:sell target – 0.6800

19 June 2015

 

By: Dima Chernovolov

 

-NZD/USD falls inside impulse waves 3 and (5)

-Next sell target – 0.6800

 

NZD/USD has been falling strongly in the last few trading sessions – following the earlier breakout of the strong resistance level 0.7200 (which was later retested with the Evening Star) and the lower support trendline of the extended daily down channel from last October (as you can see from the daily NZD/USD chart below). Each of these support breakouts intensified the bearish pressure on NZD/USD.

 

NZD/USD is likely to fall further inside the active impulse waves 5 and (3) toward the next sell target 0.6800. The pair is likely to correct up after reaching this support level.

 

NZDUSD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Ju

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

GBP/CAD: buy targets - 1.9560 and 1.9800

22 June 2015

 

By: Dima Chernovolov

 

-GBP/CAD reached buy targets 1.9150 and 1.9400

-Next buy targets - 1.9560 and 1.9800

 

GBP/CAD recently broke above the resistance levels 1.9150 and 1.9400 – both of which were set as the buy targets in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of these resistance levels continues the active minor impulse wave 3 which started earlier this month – when the pair reversed up with the two daily Hammers from the support zone lying between the support level 1.8850 and 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous impulse wave 1.

 

GBP/CAD is likely to rise further inside the active impulse 3 toward the next buy targets at the resistance levels -1.9560 (top of the previous intermediate (A)-wave) and 1.9800.

 

GBPCAD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Ju

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

GBP/USD: buy target – 1.6000

22 June 2015

 

By: Dima Chernovolov

 

-GBP/USD broke resistance level 1.5800

-Next buy target – 1.6000

 

GBP/USD has been rising strongly in the last few trading sessions – following the earlier breakout of the round resistance level 1.5000, which was set as the buy target in our previous report for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 1.5000 intensified the bullish pressure on GBP/USD – helping the active minor impulse wave 3 break above the resistance level 1.5800 (top of the previous (A)-wave).

 

GBP/USD is likely to rise further inside the active minor impulse wave 3 toward the next buy target at the round resistance level 1.6000. Strong support remains at 1.5800.

 

GBPUSD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Ju

 

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