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Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for April 21

 

US dollar weakened last week on the stream of weaker-than-expected data releases in the US. On Friday, however, bright consumer sentiment provided the greenback some support. As a result, it reached technical support versus some of the major currencies and may strengthen a bit. Still, we don’t speak about the uptrend resumption in USD – for this we need more positive statistics. This week watch US unemployment claims on Thursday and durable goods on Friday.

 

EUR/USD met resistance in the 1.0850 area on Friday and fell approaching 1.0700 on Monday. The pair retraced 61.8% of the decline from April 6 to April 13. Big declines in the euro have paused, but the single currency is still affected by the Greek question: according to the comments of the officials, the nation remains far from the compromise with its creditors. The pair will trade in consolidative fashion until the Eurogroup’s meeting on Friday. Support is at 1.0700 and 1.0650/40. Resistance is at 1.0850 and 1.0920. On Tuesday Germany and the euro area will release economic sentiment data at 09:00 GMT, forecasts are optimistic.

 

GBP/USD spiked up to 1.5050 on Friday forming a shooting star candle on the daily chart. Next resistance is at 1.5163. On the downside pound may test 1.4800. Next support is at 1.4740. The approaching elections remain the negative factor for the cable. Next important event for the pair is release of the Bank of England’s meeting minutes on Wednesday. No votes for a rate hike in the UK are expected.

 

USD/JPY broke below important technical levels last week, but found some support in the 118.50 area. Next support levels lie at 118.30 and 115.00. Resistance is at 119.30 and 119.70.

 

AUD/USD remains near the highest levels since the end of March as Australia released last week some better-than-expected employment data and China reduced reserve requirement ratio on Sunday in an effort to boost lending and economic growth. Support is at 0.7730 and 0.7695. The RBA will release monetary policy meeting minutes at 01:30 GMT.

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

Key option levels

21 April 2015

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT). 

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: 1.0730 (EUR 338m), 1.0800/10 (922m), 1.0850 (462m);

 

GBP/USD: 1.4830-35 (GBP 350m);

 

USD/JPY: 118.00 (USD 504m), 118.50 (200m), 118.70 (200m), 121.00 (551m);

 

USD/CAD: 1.2200 (USD 295m), 1.2250 (657m), 1.2300 (350m);

 

AUD/USD: 0.7700 (AUD 261m), 0.7750 (290m), 0.7800/10 (280m), 0.7855/60 (280m);

 

NZD/USD: 0.7600 (NZD 441m), 0.7645 (389m), 0.7800 (813m);

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7225 (EUR 221m);

 

EUR/JPY: 129.00 (EUR 694m);

 

AUD/JPY: 92.85/90/93.00 (AUD 225m).

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 21

 

Open positions:*

 

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9565, TAKE PROFIT 0.9770, STOP LOSS 0.9479

 

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 119.67, TAKE PROFIT 118.30, STOP LOSS 119.65

 

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4925, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4850

 

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7655, TAKE PROFIT 0.7809, STOP LOSS 0.7575

 

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 128.70, TAKE PROFIT 126.08, STOP LOSS 128.85

 

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186, STOP LOSS 1.0331

 

Trade signals:

 

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.2305, TAKE PROFIT 1.2047, STOP LOSS 1.2370

 

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL

 

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

 

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

 

GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY

 

_______________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for April 22

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

 


 

US Dollar

 

The US currency is struggling to recover following the last week’s selloff with the USD index reaching 98.70 on Tuesday. The US corporate profits are coming out slightly better than expected – in comparison to reduced forecasts. This factor could render some support to the US financial markets in the near term. You should also watch the US existing home sales and crude oil inventories on Wednesday.

 

EUR/USD

 

ZEW economic activity indices came out mixed on Tuesday with the German figures missing expectations (53.3 vs. 55.6 expected). On the contrary, euro area index surprised to the upside (64.8 vs. 63.7 expected). Euro zone’s economic calendar is rather light tomorrow, while on Thursday the market will focus on a block of PMI indices. Greek problem will remain on the table this week, pressuring the euro.  Volatility could jump with every new headline, so watch the news flow.

 

EUR/USD has already given up 50% of the last week’s gains, falling below 1.0700.  Continued USD recovery could put more pressure on the pair. Targets lie at 1.0660 (recent low) and 1.0620 (trend support).

 

GBP/USD

 

Cable follows the market trend, descending from the last week’s peak of 1.5050 (55-day MA). We expect the pair to reach 1.4810/00 area in the coming sessions. On Wednesday, the BOE is scheduled to release its meeting minutes. However, we doubt that many Committee members support a rate hike in the current environment.

 

AUD/USD

 

Watch Australia CPI on Wednesday – consumer prices are expected to have added only 0.1% in Q1 compared to 0.2% in Q4. We expect AUD/USD to stay under pressure: low inflation supports policy-easing expectations on a May 5 meeting. Technical support is seen in the 0.7700/0.7680 area these days. A break lower would open the way back to 0.7600 and 0.7550.

 

USD/JPY

 

The pair was in demand on Tuesday, testing the 55-day MA (119.60) to the upside. Watch the 120.50 resistance line that connects the March and April highs. Japan is scheduled to release March trade balance – deficit is expected to tighten.  

 

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Posted
MARKET NEWS

 

Key option levels

22 April 2015

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT). 

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: 1.0650 (EUR 375m), 1.0700 (672m), 1.0740 (288m), 1.0800 (1bln);

 

USD/JPY: 119.00 (USD 525m), 121.00 (1bln);

 

USD/CHF: 0.9800 (USD 295m);

 

USD/CAD: 1.2285 (USD 200m), 1.2375/80 (700m);

 

AUD/USD: 0.7655/60 (AUD 225m), 0.7800 (687m);

 

NZD/USD: 0.7500 (NZD 1bln), 0.7800 (686m).

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 22

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.0734, TAKE PROFIT 1.0888, STOP LOSS 1.0659

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.45, TAKE PROFIT 120.84, STOP LOSS 118.95

 

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4925, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4850

 

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9565, TAKE PROFIT 0.9770, STOP LOSS 0.9479

 

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2245, TAKE PROFIT 1.2388, STOP LOSS 1.2170

 

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0420, TAKE PROFIT 1.0186 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0331

 

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7655, TAKE PROFIT 0.7809, STOP LOSS 0.7575

 

Trade ideas:

 

EUR/JPY: BUY at 128.15, TAKE PROFIT 129.75, STOP LOSS 127.35

 

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.7093, STOP LOSS 0.7250

 

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3255, TAKE PROFIT 1.2850, STOP LOSS 1.3375

 

GBP/JPY: BUY at 178.35, TAKE PROFIT 180.90, STOP LOSS 177.45

 

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

 

_______________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for April 23

 

EUR/USD faces resistance in the 1.0775/1.0800 area created by the line connecting December and April highs. This together with concerns about Greece lets us think that the euro remains a sell. Support is at 1.0682, 1.0660 and 1.0640. Don’t miss the release of the euro area’s key manufacturing & services PMIs at 07:00-08:00 GMT. Slightly better readings are expected.

 

GBP/USD rose above last week’s highs testing 1.5080 to meet resistance provided by the daily Ichimoku and 55-day MA. Support is at 1.4860. The Bank of England’s meeting minutes released on Wednesday were regarded as a bit hawkish. Technically the pound looks good in the short term and may rise up to 1.5160. Be cautious with longs though: sterling is going to have hard times ahead of approaching elections. On Thursday Britain will release retail sales and public sector net borrowing data at 08:30 GMT.

 

USD/JPY recovered this week from support at 118.50, but met resistance in the 119.75 area (55-day MA) ahead of 120.35/50. Traders start to speculate about the Bank of Japan’s meeting on April 30, and the pair may retest 120.00. On Thursday watch US new home sales and unemployment claims.

 

AUD/USD is above 20-day MA (0.7680), but below the recent highs (0.7840). Higher-than-expected Australian inflation figures reduced expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate cut in May. On Thursday China will release HSBC flash manufacturing PMI at 01:45 GMT.

 

USD/CHF jumped as the SNB announced that pension funds can be subject to negative rates. The pair’s consolidating in the descending triangle, so one may set buy stop and sell stop pending orders near its borders.

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 23

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.073, TAKE PROFIT 1.0888, STOP LOSS 1.0659

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.45, TAKE PROFIT 120.84, STOP LOSS 119.29 (revised)

 

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4925, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4930 (revised)

 

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9565, TAKE PROFIT 0.9862 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9559 (revised)

 

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2245, TAKE PROFIT 1.2388, STOP LOSS 1.2170

 

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 128.40, TAKE PROFIT 130.36, STOP LOSS 127.42

 

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7422, STOP LOSS 0.7670

 

Trade ideas:

 

EUR/CHF: BUY at 1.0350, TAKE PROFIT 1.0508, STOP LOSS 1.0299

 

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3255, TAKE PROFIT 1.2850, STOP LOSS 1.3375

 

GBP/JPY: BUY at 179.30, TAKE PROFIT 180.90, STOP LOSS 178.45

 

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

 

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL

 

_______________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for Apr. 24

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

 


 

The greenback came under renewed pressure on Thursday as the bearish news flow from the US disappointed the market. Unemployment claims came out above the forecast (295K), while new home sales disappointed to the downside (only 481K). What is important, April manufacturing PMI disappointed to the downside (54.2), raising fears that slow growth is extending into Q2. We’ll watch US durable goods orders on Friday (forecast – upbeat).

 

EUR/USD trade remains volatile with the pair recovering to 1.0800 in the US opening despite the weaker-than-expected euro block’s PMIs. The pair is still unable to set a clear move. Next resistance lies at 1.0840 and 1.0890/0900, while strong support is seen at 1.0660. Watch April German Ifo business climate index on Friday. Euro group meeting also starts tomorrow – watch the headlines about Greece.

 

GBP/USD holds below the yesterday’s 1.5080 resistance as the March retail sales disappointed to the downside on Thursday (-0.5% vs. +0.4% expected). Cable is struggling to overcome the 55-day MA these days. We see the road open for a test of 1.5150 and 1.5200 in the coming sessions.

 

AUD/USD remains supported, but holds slightly below the 0.7800 mark. Resistance lies at 0.7820 and 0.7915/30. USD/JPY failed to overcome the 120.50 resistance on the wave of broad USD selloff. Support is seen at 119.00 and 118.50. 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 24

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.0734, TAKE PROFIT 1.0910 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0659

 

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.4925, TAKE PROFIT 1.5155, STOP LOSS 1.4955 (revised)

 

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 128.40, TAKE PROFIT 130.36, STOP LOSS 127.85 (revised)

 

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7170, TAKE PROFIT 0.6990, STOP LOSS 0.7250

 

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0350, TAKE PROFIT 1.0495 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0299

 

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7422, STOP LOSS 0.7670

 

Trade ideas:

 

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7755, TAKE PROFIT 0.7905, STOP LOSS 0.7675

 

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.2180, TAKE PROFIT 1.1934, STOP LOSS 1.2275

 

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3255, TAKE PROFIT 1.2850, STOP LOSS 1.3375

 

GBP/JPY: BUY at 179.30, TAKE PROFIT 180.90, STOP LOSS 178.45

 

USD/CHF: Possibly SELL

 

_______________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
MARKET NEWS

 

Key option levels

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT). 

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: 1.0800 (EUR 521m), 1.0900 (1.1bln)

 

GBP/USD: 1.5080/90 (GBP 420m), 1.5200 (264m)

 

USD/JPY: 119.00 (USD 738m), 120.00 (1.8bln)

 

USD/CAD: 1.2000 (USD 700m), 1.2035/50 (700m), 1.2165 (804m), 1.2200 (807m)

 

AUD/USD: 0.7780/90 (AUD 560m)

 

NZD/USD: 0.7575 (NZD 283m).

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for April 27

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.0734, TAKE PROFIT 1.0988, STOP LOSS 1.0783 (revised)

 

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7422, STOP LOSS 0.7670

 

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7793, TAKE PROFIT 0.7939, STOP LOSS 0.7703

 

USD/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.2180, TAKE PROFIT 1.1934, STOP LOSS 1.2275

 

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7170, TAKE PROFIT 0.6990, STOP LOSS 0.7250

 

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0350, TAKE PROFIT 1.0495 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0299

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 180.30, TAKE PROFIT 181.80, STOP LOSS 179.60

 

Trade ideas:

 

USD/JPY: BUY at 118.72, TAKE PROFIT 120.17, STOP LOSS 118.48

 

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5088, TAKE PROFIT 1.5317, STOP LOSS 1.5013

 

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9590, TAKE PROFIT 0.9450, STOP LOSS 0.9640

 

EUR/JPY: BUY at 128.45, TAKE PROFIT 130.79, STOP LOSS 127.85

 

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3255, TAKE PROFIT 1.2850, STOP LOSS 1.3375

 

____________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Trading plan for April 28

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

 


 

Demand for the US dollar revived on Monday in the global environment of uncertainty. We’ll watch the consumer confidence index on Tuesday (14:00 GMT). Market attention is glued to the Wednesday’s US calendar: there are advance Q1 GDP (12:30 GMT) and FOMC meeting (18:00 GMT) on the schedule. Rate hike expectations will likely fix on September after these releases, so the USD bullish correction is limited.

 

EUR/USD pulled down from the 1.0900 mark as the Greek voes continue to hurt market sentiment. Last week’s Eurogroup meeting failed to bring any progress; negotiations continue. Tomorrow there are no releases on the agenda, while on Wednesday Germany will release its April CPI (forecast: -0.1% vs. 0.5% in March). Support is seen at 1.0710 and 1.0660.

 

GBP/USD retraced from the 1.5150/5200 resistance area (100-day MA, trend line). Break above 1.5200 could open the way to the 1.5500 area, but the direction will get clear after the UK and US Q1 GDP releases and the Fed. UK is scheduled to release its preliminary Q1 GDP tomorrow (forecast: +0.5% vs. +0.6% in Q4).

 

USD/JPY found buying interest at 118.80 and climbed above 119.00 on Monday. Watch Japanese retail sales late on Monday (22:50 GMT). The indicator is expected to have plummeted by more than 7% in March, so we could see more JPY weakness. Another push to 120.00 or 120.50 is expected. By the way, Fitch rating agency downgraded Japan's credit rating from A+ to A over the weekend.

 

AUD/USD is trying to hold above 0.7800. Resistance lies in the 0.7840 (April highs) and at 0.7890 (100-day MA), while support – at 0.7760, 0.7680 and 0.7640/25. RBA governor Stevens will deliver a speech at 22:40 GMT on Monday.

 

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Posted
MARKET NEWS

 

Key option levels

28 April 2015

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT). 

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: 1.0795/1.0800 (EUR 670m), 1.0885 (747m), 1.0900 (400m)

 

GBP/USD: 1.5150 (GBP 257m), 1.5185 (235m), 1.5250 (1.2bln)

 

USD/JPY: 119.00 (USD 530m), 120.00 (610m)

 

USD/CAD: 1.2250 (USD 518m)

 

AUD/USD: 0.7790/0.7800 (AUD 1bln), 0.7830 (300m)

 

NZD/USD: 0.7500 (NZD 565m)

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7190 (EUR 257m), 0.7345 (600M)

 

EUR/JPY: 130.70 (EUR 330m)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: signals for April 28

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.0734, TAKE PROFIT 1.0988 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0783 (revised)

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.00, TAKE PROFIT 120.17, STOP LOSS 118.45

 

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9555, TAKE PROFIT 0.9718, STOP LOSS 0.9485

 

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7793, TAKE PROFIT 0.7939, STOP LOSS 0.7703

 

USD/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.2180, TAKE PROFIT 1.1934, STOP LOSS 1.2210 (revised)

 

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7170, TAKE PROFIT 0.6990, STOP LOSS 0.7250

 

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0350, TAKE PROFIT 1.0495 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0299

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 180.30, TAKE PROFIT 181.80, STOP LOSS 179.60

 

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7422, STOP LOSS 0.7670

 

Trade ideas:

 

GBP/USD: Look to BUY

 

EUR/JPY: BUY at 129.20, TAKE PROFIT 130.79, STOP LOSS 128.68

 

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.3255, TAKE PROFIT 1.2850, STOP LOSS 1.3375

 

____________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Forex trading plan for April 29

 

Wednesday will be an intense day: markets will likely be consolidative ahead of the US releases which will create strong volatility during the American session. The US will release Q1 GDP at 12:30 GMT (forecast: +1.0%), and the Federal Reserve will publish its statement at 18:00 GMT. As the prospects of the US currency look very uncertain, other currencies feel rather well versus the greenback. We don’t expect major changes in the Fed’s policy and think that the impact on the US dollar will be moderately negative.

 

EUR/USD has reached 1.0950. The pair was also driven by some hopes for a closer deal between Greece and its creditors as the Greek negotiating team was reshuffled so that the influence of an aggressive finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has diminished. The pair is trying to overcome the 55-day MA at 1.0930. Daily close above this level will be a bullish signal. Support is at 1.0850 and 1.0786. Resistance is at 1.0995, 1.1050 and 1.1166 (top of the daily Ichimoku).

 

GBP/USD has reached 1.5300 despite the fact that British data showed weaker-than-expected GDP growth in Q1 (only 0.3% vs. 0.6% in the previous quarter). Support is at 1.5177 (100-day MA) and 1.5100. Resistance is at 1.5350 ahead of 1.5500. It seems that the pound has some upside potential before the reversal down.

 

USD/JPY is little changed below 119.25 (55-day MA) and above Monday’s low at 118.77. As long as the pair remains above 118.30, the outlook remains bullish warranting an increase to resistance at 119.70. Still, it may be difficult for the US dollar to hold ground if American GDP disappoints. There’s no further support until 117.20.

 

AUD/USD reached 0.7970 making a break though to the upside. A close above here will strengthen the case for the advance to 0.8030 and then to 0.8250. NZD/USD returned to 0.7700. Traders await the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand at 21:00 GMT on Wednesday. If the RBNZ keeps rates on hold, as we expect, the pair may rise to 0.7800. There will be an obstacle at 0.7740.

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 29

 

Open positions:*

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.00, TAKE PROFIT 120.17, STOP LOSS 118.45

 

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9555, TAKE PROFIT 0.9718, STOP LOSS 0.9485

 

USD/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.2180, TAKE PROFIT 1.1934, STOP LOSS 1.2138 (revised)

 

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7170, TAKE PROFIT 0.6990, STOP LOSS 0.7250

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 180.30, TAKE PROFIT 183.15, STOP LOSS 180.60

 

Open positions:

 

EUR/USD: BUY AT 1.0935, TAKE PROFIT 1.1052, STOP LOSS 1.0855

 

GBP/USD: BUY AT 1.5265, TAKE PROFIT 1.5529, STOP LOSS 1.5165

 

AUD/USD: BUY AT 0.7910, TAKE PROFIT 0.8137, STOP LOSS 0.7835

 

EUR/JPY: BUY AT 130.10 (revised), TAKE PROFIT 131.87, STOP LOSS 129.30

 

EUR/CAD: SELL AT 1.3255, TAKE PROFIT 1.2850, STOP LOSS 1.3375

 

NZD/USD: BUY AT 0.7670 (revised), TAKE PROFIT 0.7890, STOP LOSS 0.7605

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

Danske Bank: trade signals for Apr. 30

 

Open positions:

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.00, TAKE PROFIT 120.17, STOP LOSS 118.45

 

USD/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.2180, TAKE PROFIT 1.1934, STOP LOSS 1.2138 (revised)

 

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7170, TAKE PROFIT 0.6990, STOP LOSS 0.7250

 

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0350, TAKE PROFIT 1.0580 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0379

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 180.30, TAKE PROFIT 185.05, STOP LOSS 181.45

 

Trade ideas:

 

EUR/USD: BUY at 1.1039, TAKE PROFIT 1.1245, STOP LOSS 1.0959

 

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5355, TAKE PROFIT 1.5570, STOP LOSS 1.5288

 

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9445, TAKE PROFIT 0.9259, STOP LOSS 0.9516

 

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7940, TAKE PROFIT 0.8235, STOP LOSS 0.7833

 

EUR/JPY: BUY at 131.55, TAKE PROFIT 134.60, STOP LOSS 130.26

 

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

 

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

USD/JPY: breakthrough is coming

 

By Elizaveta Belugina

 

On Monday USD/JPY fell below the 100-day MA and spent the rest of the week below this line. Although the bulls probably want to see some moves up, the pair lacks drivers for growth. The tone of the US Federal Reserve was very balanced. The markets worry about the recent stream of weak data and don’t expect the rate hike in June. The Bank of Japan has also left its policy unchanged refraining from additional monetary stimulus. Although Japanese regulator cut inflation forecast for this fiscal year, it wasn’t by much. As a result, nothing provoked big moves of the market.

 


 

USD/JPY is trapped between 119.30 and 118.50. Technically we see several patterns on the chart: 2 descending triangles – one smaller with resistance drawn through April highs and one bigger with resistance connecting March and April maximums. As for support area, it’s the same for 2: in the 118.50/30 area. The fall below this zone will cause a decline to 117.20/00 – the bottom of the 2-months descending channel and previous lows. Resistance is at 119.75 and 120.00.

 

Japanese economic calendar is almost empty. The nation’s banks will be closed in the first 3 days of the week because of the various holidays. On Thursday there will be some comments from the Bank of Japan, but the real market mover will be the US data releases, especially labor market figures on Wednesday and Friday.

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

GBP/USD: how far can the bulls go?

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

 


 

British pound benefitted from the broad-based USD weakness last week. GBP/USD surged by more than 400 pips, approaching the 1.5500 resistance – this is the February high. There are a lot of sell-orders clustered in this area, so we expect a pullback to follow in the coming days. Daily RSI confirms that the market has already become overbought. Support is seen at 1.5200 and 1.5080.

 

It's interesting that the pound was massively bought despite the mixed bag of data coming out. US economy rose by only 0.3% in Q1, while retail sales dropped by 0.5% in March. Parliamentary election on May 7 will likely become a good fundamental reason to sell the cable. According to the most recent surveys, Conservative party pushed a bit forward, but the overweight remains small and unstable. Next week we’ll also watch the UK April PMI indices. 

 


Posted
Forex Analytics

 

EUR/USD: will growth continue?

 

By Elizaveta Belugina

 


 

EUR/USD showed another week of growth rising above 1.1200. The euro went above the late March – early April highs and closed above January low at 1.1097 on Wednesday.

 

The pair got strength from the general weakness of the US dollar. In addition, the single currency was driven up by the rising German bund yields as the fears of deflation is the euro area receded. Moreover, the prospects of Greece getting bailout money improved. The nation reshuffled its negotiating team decreasing the role of Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis. As you might remember, Varoufakis failed to achieve progress in the talks with the European creditors. Greek government hopes that now when Varoufakis is pushed aside, lenders will be more compliant.

 

The next meeting of the Euro group will take place on May 11. Until then major developments of the Greek situation are unlikely, though occasional comments from various officials will stir the euro. The first week of May will be rather light in terms of economic data from the euro area. Pay some attention to the release of the EU economic forecasts on Tuesday.

 

The area of 1.1215/50 offers rather strong resistance. However, market participants will be very cautious with selling the single currency. Next target on the upside is the 100-day MA at 1.1311. EUR/USD is expected to find strong support at 1.1100 and 1.1000. We may see some consolidation between 1.12 and 1.10.

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

USD/SGD: buy target – 1.3200

4 May 2015

 

By: Dima Chernovolov

 

USD/SGD completed intermediate ABC correction (2)

Next buy target – 1.3200 

USD/SGD recently reversed up sharply from the strong support zone lying between the support level 1.3200 (former resistance which reversed the pair in last December, as you can see from the daily USD/SGD chart below), the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous extended upward impulse from August of 2014. The upward reversal from this support zone completed the preceding sharp intermediate ABC correction (2) from the middle of March.

 

USD/SGD is likely to rise further – in line with the strong uptrend visible on the daily charts – toward the next buy target at 1.3390. Strong support remains at 1.3200.

USDSGD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Ma

 

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Posted
Forex Analytics

 

AUD/USD: sell target - 0.7700

4 May 2015

 

By: Dima Chernovolov

 

-AUD/USD reached buy target 0.8000

-Next sell target - 0.7700

 

AUD/USD recently reversed down sharply after the pair reached the round resistance level 0.8000, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The resistance zone near 0.8000 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward impulse from the middle of January (as you can see from the daily AUD/USD chart below).

 

The downward reversal from 0.8000 created the strong Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern – Evening Star Doji – thereby completing the previous intermediate ABC correction (4). AUD/USD is likely to fall to the next sell target at 0.7700.

AUDUSD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Ma

 

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