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Forex Analytics

 

GBPUSD: weekly review (14/11)

 

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

 

Daily. Bears have not only eased the pressure on last week, but also took advantage of the Tenkan-sen line resistance to resume sales of the currency pair. Testing the line was completed in the area of 1.5940 by landslide falling pound, which by the end of the week dropped to the level of 1.5650. Ichimoku line behaved accordingly, which is now directed straight down.

 

 

MACDi and RSI show increased bearish trend on the market again.

 

gbpusdd1.png

 

Graph. Daily GBP/USD

H4. On the 4-hour timeframe the lower limit of the Ichimoku cloud performed as major resistance, which unsuccessful test led to the eventual downfall of consumer interest. The indicators are also bearish, but pay attention to the Chinkou span line, which is currently in oversold territory. Possible short-term rebound in the region of 1.5770.

 

gbpusdh4.png

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

Nov. 17: MARKET REVIEW

 

USD/JPY touched levels above 117 as Japan's economy unexpectedly slipped into recession (GDP fell by annualized 1.6%), but then slipped to the 115.50 area, because Japanese stocks were hit by the news. Nikkei fell by 2.6%.

 

EUR/USD pushed higher to 1.2530 after having closed above the 1.2500 figure last week. Watch the German Bundesbank monthly report and the ECB Draghi’s speech later in the day.

 

GBP/USD edged up to $1.5735 after testing $1.5600 in Friday.

 

AUD/USD pushed to 0.8790. NZD/USD gapped higher, pushing to 0.7975 amid better-than-expected retail sales data.

 

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Nov. 17: key option levels

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). 

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: 1.2400 (large), 1.2475 (large), 1.2490 (large), 1.2500 (large);

 

USD/JPY: 114.60, 115.00, 116.00 (large), 116.75 (large);

 

AUD/USD: 0.8750 (large), 0.8700 (large), 0.8650 (large);

 

USD/CAD: 1.1305 (large);

 

EUR/CHF: 1.1800 (large), 1.2030 (large), 1.2350 (large).

 

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AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis

 

By Roman Petukhov

 

Weekly. The market is forming an ending of a corretive wave which is a threefold downtrend zigzag. At this point, construction of the final zigzag is in process (z).

 

audusd1.PNG

 

Daily. After the end of the correction construction (x), we noticed formation of a new bearish impulse A. After its end, the market will be forming correction to this impulse which is marked as wave B on the chart.

 

audusd2.PNG

 

H4. Impulse A looks completely finished, according to its wave structure. At the moment, the construction of the wave B beginning is in process, however its future form is not yet clear, thus we recommend to hold back from trading until the situation is clarified. As of today, wave [A] ofB is supposed to obtain the form of a two- or a threefold zigzag. An approximate course of a possilible movement is shown in the picture.

 

audusd3.PNG

 

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USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis

 

By Roman Petukhov

 

Daily. The ending development of the global upward trend continues. The most important task at this point is to define the completion point of the wave V construction. To this end, let us look at the markup on the lower time frames.

 

usdjpy1.PNG

 

H12. Wave V structure is presented in the picture. A slight upward impulse of the V [5] has formed in the last section. Let us look at its markup.

 

usdjpy2.PNG

 

H4. The impulse [5] is fully packed with the low-level waves. Therefore, the possibiliy of the upward trend ending increases. If the supposition is right, we will see a corrective or impulse decline.

 

usdjpy3.PNG

 

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GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis

 

Weekly. The pair’s forming global descending A-B-C Zigzag, within which it’s building a multi-month bearish trend С.

 

gbpusd1.PNG

 

Daily. In line with the forecasts after the pair finished correction [2], we saw the decline of the price.

 

gbpusd2.PNG


H4. The pair’s starting of the new downtrend wave [3]. This week we expect a small correction 2. After that the pair will resume decline.

 

gbpusd3.PNG

 


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EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis

 

By Roman Petuchov

 

Weekly. Global converging horizontal triangle B is coming to an end. 

 

eurusd1.PNG

 

Daily. The market is now forming a bearish zigzag [E] with an impulse © inside. It will soon be over. Let's see the markup on the H4 chart in details in order to forecast the weekly prospects. 

 

eurusd2.PNG

 

H4. The market was building a horizontal corrective wave [iv] that is almost over. The decline will likely continue on the new week in the framework of the wave [v] of 5.

 

eurusd3.PNG

 

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Trading plan for Nov. 18

 

Hello, dear traders! The new week has started, so we are once again here for you with the daily trading plans.

 

EUR/USD: The pair pushed higher on the wave of short-covering, but failed to fix above 1.2550 for now (38.2% Fibo). We expect the upside to be limited by the 1.2600 figure – this is where the medium-term trend resistance lies. On Tuesday watch German and euro zone’s economic sentiment data at 10:00 GMT (forecasts – upbeat).

 

GBP/USD: The pair started Monday on the positive note, but was viciously rejected at 1.5730. Support is at 1.5600. There may be some consolidation above this point, but then the downtrend will resume. A close below here will make us target 1.5500. On the upside further resistance is at 1.5789 and 1.5875. On Tuesday watch British inflation data (09:30 GMT) – the figures will likely keep GBP under pressure.

 

USD/JPY: The pair stays above 115.50. PM Abe is widely expected to call a snap election and delay sales tax hike. There’s a talk that Abe he give a press conference tomorrow. USD/JPY may test 107.90 (Oct. 2007 high) on the announcement. Until then the pair will likely remain consolidative with more support at 115.00.

 

AUD/USD: Bullish demand for the Aussie dollar remains limited by the 0.8800 mark for now.The price is unlikely to overcome this area, at least from the first attempt. Next support to watch lies at 0.8700 and 0.8640. Australia is scheduled to release RBA meeting minutes tonight (00:30 GMT). Later in the day RBA Governor Stevens will deliver a speech in Melbourne (8:25 GMT).

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

Nov. 18: MARKET REVIEW

 


 

USD/JPY: Japanese Nikkei gained 2.2%, erasing much of Monday's 3% fall, while the pair has lifted to the 116.70 area. The market’s expecting that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will call a snap election that may lead to a delay a sales tax increase and further economic stimulus.

 

EUR/USD: down from 1.2570 on Monday to 1.2440 on dovish Draghi’s comments (ECB is ready to act further if needed). German and euro zone’s ZEW economic indices will be released at 10:00 GMT (forecasts – upbeat).

 

GBP/USD: The pair is consolidating in the 1.5620/50 area. Britain will release inflation data at 09:30 GMT.

 

AUD/USD: attempted to recover in Asia, but was capped at 0.8730.  RBA meeting minutes reiterate the period of rate stability.

 

NZD/USD: follows the Aussie, capped at 0.7940. Global Dairy Trade auction begins at 12:00 GMT.

 

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Key option levels

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). 

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: 1.2450 (large), 1.2480/85 (large), 1.2495/1.2500 (large), 1.2520 (large), 1.2535 (large), 1.2600 (large);

 

AUD/USD:0.8700 (large).

 

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Nov. 18

 

Open positions:

 

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.5725, Take Profit 1.5522, Stop Loss 1.5795

 

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG from 145.80, Take Profit 147.53, Stop Loss 144.69

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 182.05, Take Profit 186.60, Stop Loss 181.05

 

NZD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.7845, Take Profit 0.7997, Stop Loss 0.7820

 

Trade ideas:

 

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.2505, Take Profit 1.2342, Stop Loss 1.2582

 

USD/JPY: BUY at 115.88, Take Profit 117.47, Stop Loss 115.29

 

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9600, Take Profit 0.9741, Stop Loss 0.9550

 

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7926, Take Profit 0.8082, Stop Loss 0.7876

 

EUR/CHF: SHORT at 1.2080, Take Profit 1.2006, Stop Loss 1.2042

 

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.4130 FOR 1.3890, Stop Loss 1.4230

 

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

 

USD/CAD: Possibly BUY

 

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Nov. 19: MARKET OVERVIEW

 

USD: FOMC minutes at 19:00 GMT will be the highlight of the day. The overall tone of the document will likely be hawkish.

 

EUR/USD: trades slightly above 1.2500.

 

GBP/USD: once again tested 1.5600. The Bank of England will release its Nov. meeting minutes at 09:30 a.m. GMT. The last time 2 hawkish members voted to raise the benchmark interest rate. Traders will watch whether these MPC members have become less hawkish.

 

USD/JPY: rose above 117.30. At today’s meeting the Bank of Japan announced it retains plan for 80T yen annual rise in monetary base. The BOJ’s policy decision was made by 8-1 vote: one member of the central bank thought that the previous monetary policy steps were appropriate and that 2% inflation target should be a medium- to long-term goal.

 

AUD/USD: down to 0.8650 on renewed selling pressure.

 

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Key option levels

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). 

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: 1.2450 (large), 1.2485 (large), 1.2500 (large), 1.2520/30 (large), 1.2590/1.2600 (large);

 

USD/JPY: 115.50 (large), 116.00 (large), 116.50 (large), 117.00 (large), 117.50 (large);

 

GBP/USD: 1.5600, 1.5700 (large);

 

AUD/USD: 0.8650;

 

NZD/USD: 0.7900/10 (large).

 

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Nov. 19

 

Open positions:

 

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.5725, Take Profit 1.5522, Stop Loss 1.5745

 

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.2505, Take Profit 1.2342, Stop Loss 1.2582

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 116.93, Take Profit 117.95, Stop Loss 116.29

 

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.9600, Take Profit 0.9741, Stop Loss 0.9550

 

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG from 145.80, Take Profit 148.00, Stop Loss 145.41

 

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT from 1.2080, Take Profit 1.2006, Stop Loss 1.2042

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 182.05, Take Profit 186.60, Stop Loss 181.05

 

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT from 1.4130, Take Profit 1.3890, Stop Loss 1.4230

 

Trade ideas:

 

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7975, Take Profit 0.8066, Stop Loss 0.7930

 

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.8742, Take Profit 0.8591, Stop Loss 0.8799

 

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.1285, Take Profit 1.1500, Stop Loss 1.1222

 

NZD/USD: SELL from 0.7920, Take Profit 0.7712, Stop Loss 0. 7980

 

__________________________________________________________________

 

Danske Bank applies trailing-stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

Nov. 20: MARKET REVIEW

 

The FOMC minutes on Wednesday showed the Fed was still on track to hike interest rates next year and doesn’t care about the USD appreciation. Few participants expressed concern about the disinflationary pressures.

 

Risk sentiment weakened as China HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI slipped to the critical 50.0 level (forecast – 50.2). First contraction in 6-months. AUD and NZD lower on the news.

 

USD/JPY: rose to the 7-year high in the area of 118.70 on the expectations Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will win elections and extend his economic stimulus program. Yen fell even despite Japanese exports rose the most in 8 months.

 

EUR/USD: consolidates at 1.2530 after hitting 1.2600 on Wednesday. Watch the euro zone’s PMI releases at 8:00- 9:00 GMT (forecasts – slight improvement). 

 

GBP/USD: edged down to 1.5660. Britain will release retail sales at 09:30 GMT.

 

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Key option levels

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). 

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: 1.2500 (EUR 2.4bln), 1.2525 (EUR 569m) 1.2550 (EUR 770m), 1.2580 (EUR 603m), 1.2600 (EUR 1.7bln);

 

USD/JPY: 117.00 (USD 740m), 117.50 (USD 700m), 118.00 (USD 960m);

 

USD/CHF: 0.9590 (USD 526m), 0.9600 (USD 320m);

 

AUD/USD: 0.8550 (AUD 1.13bln), 0.8600 (AUD 1.25bln), 0.8735 (AUD 457m);

 

USD/CAD: 1.1275 (USD 430m), 1.1320 (USD 216m), 1.1400 (USD 240m);

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7910 (EUR 550m), 0.7925 (EUR 755m), 0.7980 (EUR 250m), 0.8000 (EUR200m).

 

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Large banks:how to trade EUR/USD?

 

Credit Suisse: Hold LONG from 1.2578 (From Nov. 20)

 

Morgan Stanley: Hold LONG from 1.2510, Take Profit 1.2900, Stop Loss 1.2410 (From Nov. 18)

 

JP Morgan: Hold SHORT from 1.2474, Stop Loss 1.2735 (From Nov. 14)

 

BNP Paribas: Hold SHORT from 1.2520, Take Profit 1.1800, Stop Loss 1.2800 (From Oct. 31)

 

Citi: Hold SHORT from 1.2771, Take Profit 1.2200, Stop Loss 1.3010 (From Oct.  21)

 

Credit Agricole: Hold LONG from 1.2660, Take Profit 1.3100, Stop Loss 1.2350 (From Oct.  10)

 

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Trading plan for Nov. 21

 

EUR/USD hovered in the narrow 1.2600/1.2500 range on Thursday following the dovish FOMC minutes and downbeat euro zone’s PMI indices. The one and only event to watch on Friday will be the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi at 9:00 GMT. 

 

Britain released positive retail sales data, while US figures were lower than expected. GBP/USD may test resistance in the area of 1.5730/80, but we recommend selling from the latter level.

 

USD/JPY is pulling back after reaching 119. Seek to establish new longs at 117.90/20 targeting the psychological level of 120 yen.

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

Nov. 21: MARKET REVIEW

 

Asian equities higher on Friday as the yesterday’s releases confirm US economic strength. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index jumped to 40.8 from 20.7 in October, the highest since December 1993.

 

USD/JPY: corrected down to 117.35. The pair needs to overcome resistance at 118.00 in the short term to regain bullish momentum. Yen strengthened as Finance Minister Taro Aso warned that its recent weakening was “too rapid.” Prime Minister Shinzo Abe formally dissolved Japan’s Lower House in preparation for the Dec. 14 snap election. Abe will likely hold a press conference today.

 

EUR/USD: consolidates slightly above the 1.2500 mark. The ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at 8:00 GMT. The German Bundesbank President Weidmann speaks later at 10:15 GMT.

 

GBP/USD: below resistance in the 1.5730/40 area. Britain will release public sector net borrowing data at 09:00 GMT.

 

AUD/USD: formed a doji candle on Thursday. Recovery capped at 0.8650. 

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

Key option levels

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). 

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: 1.2500 (EUR 1.1bln), 1.2550 (EUR 851m), 1.2580 (EUR 1.3bln), 1.2615/20 (EUR 716m), 1.2650 (EUR 2.2bln);

 

USD/JPY: 117.50 (USD 350m), 118.25 (USD 400m), 118.50 (USD 710m);

 

USD/CHF: 0.9675 (USD 1.1bln), 0.9700 (USD 600m);

 

AUD/USD: 0.8600 (AUD 230m);

 

USD/CAD: 1.1400 (USD 310m), 1.1500 (USD 921m);

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7825 (EUR 1.1bln), 0.7850, 0.7925 (EUR 302m).

 

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Nov. 24: MARKET REVIEW

 

USD/JPY: rose to 118.00 after a dip to 115.57. Yen declined a bit as polls showed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s party has the most support after he called early elections. Japanese public and market holiday today led to reduced liquidity during the Asian session.

 

EUR/USD: gapped down, approaching the 28-month low of 1.2350, but recovered towards 1.2390. German Ifo Business Climate will be released at 9:00 GMT (forecast – downbeat).

 

GBP/USD: edged up to 1.5670.

 

AUD/USD: consolidates in the 0.8660/8700 area. People's Bank of China unexpectedly announced interest rate cuts on Friday, opening the way for more easing. 

 

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Key option levels

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT). 

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: 1.2400, 1.2425 (EUR 418m), 1.2500 (EUR 1.1bln);

 

USD/JPY: 117.25;

 

USD/CAD: 1.1250;

 

AUD/USD: 0.8610 (AUD 1bln), 0.8800 (AUD 840m);

 

EUR/JPY:146.00 (EUR 568m).

 

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Nov. 24

 

Open positions*:

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 117.70, Take Profit 119.84, Stop Loss116.79

 

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.5725, Take Profit 1.5522, Stop Loss 1.5745

 

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT from 1.2080, Take Profit 1.2006, Stop Loss 1.2042

 

Trade ideas:

 

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.2435, Take Profit 1.2289, Stop Loss 1.2507

 

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9650, Take Profit 0.9818, Stop Loss 0.9605

 

EUR/JPY: SELL at 146.74, Take Profit 144.32, Stop Loss 148.05

 

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7955, Take Profit 0.7799, Stop Loss 0.8010

 

AUD/USD: Look to SELL

 

USD/CAD: Look to BUY lower

 

EUR/CAD: Look to SELL

 

GBP/JPY: Look to BUY

 

NZD/USD: Look to SELL

 

________________________________

 

Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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