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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Technical recommendations from RBS

 

 

 

EUR/USD: Euro’s ‘head and shoulders’ formation seen on the daily chart has finally reached its objective. EUR/USD is supported around $1.3040 (Jan. 9, 10 lows). The market’s basing, so the pair may correct upwards to $1.3198 and possibly even to $1.3269 before we meet any meaningful resistance again.

 

EUR/GBP: The bias has shifted from buying on the dips to selling on rallies. There still should be some strong support in the 0.8506/54 region but breaks through here could be significant. Resistance lies at 0.8690.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Feb. 28: Asian session

 

 

 

EUR/USD rose to $1.3150. Risk sentiment revived on good US pending home sales and core durable goods orders. The Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke said nothing new reiterating that bond purchases are here to stay for now. The ECB’s President Mario Draghi signaled yesterday the bank has no intention of tightening monetary policy anytime soon with inflation projected to “significantly” undershoot its 2% target next year.

 

US dollar is supported by the expectations that American Q4 GDP will be revised up today and we’ll see US economy gain, not contract in the final 3 months of 2012.

 

USD/JPY is above 92.00, but the upside has been contained for now by the resistance of 92.70. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe nominated Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda to be the next Bank of Japan’s governor and Kikuo Iwata Hiroshi Nakaso as deputy governor candidates, raising the prospects for additional stimulus, though it’s old news.

 

AUD/USD went up to $1.0285 after hitting $1.0195 earlier today. Aussie rallied after a report showed companies will continue to invest into next year reducing the possibility of the RBA’s rate cut. NZD/USD is back above $1.8300. GBP/USD is trading around $1.5170 after testing $1.5080 yesterday. USD/CAD eased down from more than 7-month highs to $1.0227. USD/CHF is below 0.9300.

- See more at: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-28/21716-feb-28-asian-session#sthash.WyCfnipC.dpuf

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Key options expiring today

 

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3160, $1.3170, $1.3190, $1.3300;

USD/JPY: 91.50, 92.00, 93.00;

USD/CHF: 0.9235, 0.9270;

AUD/USD: $1.0150, $1.0200, $1.0225, $1.0250;

EUR/JPY: 120.00, 120.50.

- See more at: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-28/21726-key-options-expiring-today#sthash.gl8mOOat.dpuf

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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AUD/USD: limited recovery

 

 

 

AUD/USD recovered above $1.0200 after the Wednesday’s 4-months low of $1.0180. However, daily gains were capped at $1.0290. The pair remains in a downtrend since mid-January.

 

Westpac: The RBA is expected to leave policy unchanged on a meeting on the next Tuesday (support for the Aussie). However, the week’s data probably won’t inspire confidence while the global environment seems set to limit risk appetite. We stick to neutral on the week, with $1.0380/1.0400 looking as a strong resistance.

 

Resistance: $1.0290/0300, $1.0350, $1.0390/0400

Support: $1.0230, $1.0200, $1.0185, $1.0150

- See more at: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-28/21733-audusd-limited-recovery#sthash.LRXyN9Ia.dpuf

 

Chart. Weekly USD/CAD

 

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Key options expiring today

 

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3160, $1.3170, $1.3190, $1.3300;

USD/JPY: 91.50, 92.00, 93.00;

USD/CHF: 0.9235, 0.9270;

AUD/USD: $1.0150, $1.0200, $1.0225, $1.0250;

EUR/JPY: 120.00, 120.50.

- See more at: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-02-28/21726-key-options-expiring-today#sthash.GE5O2BNa.dpuf

 

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March 1: Asian session

 

 

US dollar and yen strengthened versus their major pees this week amid concern automatic spending cuts in the US (known as sequestration) will damp global growth. The reductions will total $1.2 trillion over nine years, with $85 billion set to take effect in the remaining seven months of this fiscal year. In China two indexes of manufacturing indicated a slower-than-expected pace of expansion – another reason why the markets are cautious.

 

EUR/USD slid yesterday to 200-day EMA at $1.3055 where it once again found some support today. Euro’s under pressure as data may confirm that the region’s manufacturing contraction worsened. Also pay attention to the European inflation and unemployment figures released today. At the same time, the single currency’s getting some support as Italy’s headed for a broad coalition government.

 

USD/JPY keeps cautiously crawling up – it has reached levels around 92.50. AUD/USD spiked up to $1.0290 yesterday, but then returned to $1.0200. Today Aussie’s trading by 30 pips above this handle. GBP/USD is still fluctuating above $1.5150, but below resistance at $1.5230. USD/CHF is near 1-month highs at 0.9360. USD/CAD is at more than 7-month highs in the 1.0300 area.

- See more at: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-01/21745-march-1-asian-session#sthash.ja5uTFzL.dpuf

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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GBP/USD takes another blow

 

 

GBP/USD slid to the levels just above $1.5000, though the whole week the bulls were doing their best to keep it above $1.5100.

 

Pound was hit by the discouraging data released in the UK: British manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 (forecast: 51.0; previous: 50.8; a level below 50 indicates contraction.) in Jan., bet lending to individuals fell to 0.6B (forecast: 1.1B; previous: 1.8B), while mortgage approvals also unexpectedly decreased.

 

Pound might have some support at $1.5000, an important psychological level. In addition, GBP is oversold and there’s MACD convergence on H4, so the prices may be able to hold above this handle. Note that on the monthly chart the pair breached Ichimoku Cloud – long-term bearish signal. For example, Nomura targets $1.4950 (lower Bollinger band).

 

Support: $1.5000, $1.4970, $1.4950.

 

Resistance: $1.5080, $1.5100, $1.5150, $1.5230, $1.5320.

- See more at: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-01/21760-gbpusd-takes-another-blow#sthash.vLFswvmF.dpuf

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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March 4: Asian session

 

 

 

EUR/USD is little changed just above $1.3000, close to almost 3-month low hit on Friday, as Italy edged closer to a new election.

 

USD/JPY is down by about 30 pips to 93.30. Yen strengthened as a safe haven after China’s decision to hit the mainland property sector with strong curbs and because of concerns connected with the European debt crisis. Asian stocks fell before data this week forecast to show Europe’s economy contracted (revised euro zone’s GDP is released on Wednesday). JPY gained even after Haruhiko Kuroda, the nominee to become the next Bank of Japan Governor, pledged more monetary easing to defeat deflation.

 

AUD/USD fell from $1.0200 to 5-month low at $1.0120. Aussie fell after building approvals declined by 2.4%, while economists were looking for a 2.8% growth. NZD/USD tested levels below $0.8200.

 

GBP/USD is trying to hold above $1.5000. USD/CAD rose back to 1.0300. USD/CHF is testing the resistance of 200-day MA at 0.9430.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Key options expiring today

 

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3000, $1.3025, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3000;

 

USD/JPY: 92.50, 93.00, 93.75, 94.00;

 

EUR/GBP: 0.8700;

 

GBP/USD: $1.4900, $1.5050.

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

fbsana.png

 

 

 

 

Key options expiring today

 

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3000, $1.3025, $1.3050, $1.3100, $1.3000;

 

USD/JPY: 92.50, 93.00, 93.75, 94.00;

 

EUR/GBP: 0.8700;

 

GBP/USD: $1.4900, $1.5050.

 

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Recent market news from FBS

 

 

 

Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-04/21764-key-options-expiring-today

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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GBP/USD: waiting for the Bank of England

 

 

 

GBP/USD has once again tested levels below the psychological mark at $1.5000 as UK construction PMI fell to 46.8 during Feb. (forecast: 49.2; previous: 48.7).

 

UBS expects cable to trade in the $1.50/40 area in the next few months.

 

Support: $1.5000, $1.4985 (Friday’s low), $1.4950 (July12, 2010, low).

 

Resistance: $1.5100, $1.5185 (Friday’s high), $1.5220/30.

 

The Bank of England will come under intense pressure to inject billions of pounds into the economy when it meets on Thursday. At the last meeting 3 members of the MPC, including the governor, Mervyn King, voted to increase quantitative easing by 25 billion pounds. According to BOTMUFJ, only 2 more members are required for this decision to be made by the central bank. Watch British services PMI released tomorrow – this data may give hints for the Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday. However, economists at IHS Global point out that weakening sterling stimulates British economy itself, so the central bank won’t do more QE this week.

 

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

 

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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March 5: Asian session

 

 

 

EUR/USD is trading on the upside, above $1.3000, but below the 200-day EMA at $1.3055. There is no new bad news, so the single currency’s trying to consolidate. Italy, Spain and other euro zone’s nations will report today services PMI for Feb.

 

USD/JPY slid to the levels just below 93.00. Yen strengthened after the testimony from the Bank of Japan governor nominees failed to raise expectations for expanded monetary stimulus. There was some uncertainty from them about how long it will take for policy makers to get results.

 

AUD/USD rose to $1.0253. The Reserve bank of Australia didn’t cut interest rates from the current level of 3%. NZD/USD rose to $0.8300.

 

GBP/USD is in the positive territory, above $1.5100. Watch for UK services PMI release at 9:30 GMT. USD/CAD is on the downside, around 1.0260. USD/CHF eased down to 0.9400.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

fbsana.png

 

 

 

 

Key options expiring today

 

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3025, $1.3050, $1.3095, $1.3200;

GBP/USD: $1.5300;

USD/JPY: 92.80, 93.00, 93.20, 93.50, 94.00;

AUD/USD: $1.0080, $1.0100, $1.0150;

EUR/CHF: 1.2175, 1.2260, 1.2305.

 

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EUR/USD: banks recomemnd selling

 

 

 

Commerzbank: sell EUR/USD on advance to $1.3140 with stop at $1.3265 and a target at $1.2885.

 

Citigroup: sell at $1.3119 targeting $1.2928.

 

BBH: main target for sellers is at $1.2880 (50% retracement of the gains scored after ECB's Draghi promised to do whatever it took to save euro).

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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March 6: Asian session

 

 

US dollar weakened against most of its main peers before a private jobs report in the US forecast to show companies added positions. The Fed will release Beige book, the report of current economic conditions in the US. Optimism about the world’s largest economy spurred demand for higher-yielding assets.

 

AUD/USD rose to $1.0300, but then eased down to $1.0280. Australian GDP expanded by 0.6% q/q in Q4 in line with forecasts. NZD/USD rose to the upper border of daily Ichimoku cloud at $0.8340.

 

EUR/USD is consolidating around $1.3060 (200-day EMA). Yesterday’s recovery was limited at $1.3075. Investors remain cautious ahead of the ECB meeting, coming on Thursday. Today euro zone is scheduled to release the revised Q4 GDP (forecast – unchanged at -0.6% q/q).

 

USD/JPY is trading on the downside, though by 20 pips above 93.00 and yesterday’s low of 92.91. The Bank of Japan starts its 2-day meeting. The central bank is expected to hold fire this week.

 

GBP/USD holds above $1.5100. Today watch the Halifax HPI (forecast – positive) and the BoE King’s speech. USD/CAD keeps edging lower. The pair is now trading at 1.0260. Later in the day the BoC will announce the monetary policy decision. USD/CHF keeps consolidating above 0.9400, but below 200-day MA at 0.9430.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

fbsana.png

 

 

 

 

Key options expiring today

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.3000, $1.3000, $1.3150, $1.3200;

GBP/USD: $1.5000;

USD/JPY: 91.50, 91.55, 92.50, 93.00, 93.50, 93.55;

AUDUSD: $1.0150, $1.0200, $1.0290;

EUR/GBP: 0.8650.

 

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USD/JPY: calm ahead of the BoJ

 

 

USD/JPY recovered to 93.30 after having tested 93.00 (200-hour EMA) earlier in the day. The pair remains in a sideways 93.50/93.00 range.

 

Don’t forget about the tomorrow’s BoJ policy meeting. Investors widely expect the regulator to remain on hold in March. In this respect the yen could strengthen a bit. However, it is quite evident that the next easing announcement is around the corner: the current governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his two deputy governors will leave office on March 19.

 

Analysts at UBS recommend buying the pair on dips: “The technical picture is bullish. A break above the 94.75 resistance will open the way to 97.80. Key support is seen at 92.30 and 90.90”.

 

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

 

 

 

 

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AUD/USD: technical picture

 

 

AUD/USD is consolidating around $1.0280. Earlier in the day Aussie tested $1.0300, but failed to overcome this resistance.

 

The pair is now testing the upper boundary of the bearish channel, existing since the mid-January ($1.0270). As can be seen from the H4 chart, Aussie is trying to rise above the Ichimoku cloud. Yesterday we've seen a "golden cross" (Tenkan-sen rose above the Kijun-sen, bullish sign). H4 MACD is improving.

 

A fix above the $1.0300 resistance would be a positive sign. A break of the $1.0375 resistance could open the way for a growth towards the $1.0580/0625 area. The picture could become bearish below $1.0220.

 

Resistance: $1.0360 (50- and 200-day EMA), $1.0375 (100-day EMA), $1.0400, $1.0480

 

Support: $1.0250 (weekly Ichimoku boundary) $1.0220, $1.0210/00 (100-week EMA), $1.0115 (7-month low)

 

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

 

 

 

 

 

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March 7: Asian session

 

 

US economy grew at a modest to moderate pace across most of the country amid rising consumer demand for homes and autos, the Fed said in its Beige Book business survey yesterday. ADP employment report showed an increase of 198K in American employment last month (forecast: 172K). The Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken its 2007 record rising to 14,296 points. The optimism about US economy make investors expect sooner end of the Fed’s QE program that is positive for USD.

 

Asian session, however, was calm as the market’s awaiting the ECB and the Bank of England’s decisions.

 

USD/JPY declined by 20 pips from yesterday’s high at 94.11. The Bank of Japan today kept monetary policy unchanged with asset-purchase program at 76 trillion yen ($809 billion). AUD/USD is up, around $1.0250 after testing $1.0217 earlier in Asia. Australian trade deficit widened from 0.51B Australian dollars in Dec. to $AUD1.06B in Jan. NZD/USD rose to $0.8280 after probing $0.8260.

 

EUR/USD recovered to $1.2995 after yesterday’s drop to $1.2970. S&P revised Portugal’s credit outlook from negative to stable, current rating is BB. The key risk event of the day is the ECB policy announcement (12:45 GMT) and the press-conference (13:30 GMT). The regulator is unlikely to cut rates in March, though some analysts still expect a rate cut in 2013. Spain and France hold 10-year bond auctions today. German factory orders will be released at 11:00 GMT.

 

GBP/USD is trading at $1.5000 after having tested $1.4960 (lowest since July 2010) earlier. The Bank of England will announce its monetary policy decision at 12:00 GMT. Additional easing is quite possible as the minutes from the last meeting revealed that three MCP members support QE.

 

USD/CAD is trading around $1.0315. Yesterday the greenback tested $1.0335 (highest since May 2012). Loonie came under pressure as the Bank of Canada was more dovish than expected. Marc Carney said the 1.00% rate will remain appropriate for some time. USD/CHF rose to 0.9480/90 after it added more than 70 pips yesterday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Key options expiring today

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3030, $1.3050, $1.3100;

GBP/USD: $1.5150;

USD/JPY: 93.30, 93.50;

EUR/CHF: 1.2250, 1.2280, 1.2320;

EUR/GBP: 0.8640, 0.8700.

 

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Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-07/21843-key-options-expiring-today

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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GBP/USD: technical, fundamental

 

Yesterday we’ve uncovered the expectations about the Bank of England’s meeting (see this article). In addition, Financial Times published an article suggesting that the incoming BoE Governor Mark Carney could be given new powers to implement radical monetary loosening when he takes the post in July.

 

GBP/USD is once again testing levels below $1.5000 – today the pair hit $1.4965. Pound touched levels below last week’s minimum ($1.4985). On the downside, the next targets may be $1.4950 and $1.4900 where some rebound is possible. On the upside, resistance lies at $1.5080, $1.5150 and $1.5200.

 

According to consensus forecast, the BoE will keep policy unchanged. A dovish BoE decision could send GBP/USD lower towards $1.4800, while a hawkish statement could lead to a rally towards resistance at $1.5125.

 

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

 

 

 

 

 

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Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-07/21848-gbpusd-technical-fundamental

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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NZD/USD: near-term outlook

 

NZD/USD is facing key resistance at $0.8300 (psychological level, 100-day MA, Ichimoku Cloud on H4).

 

The pair has so far breached resistance from February highs. However, there may be a ‘head and shoulders’ pattern on H1 with the neckline at $0.8260 (bottom of the daily Cloud). A decline below this level may provoke a slide to $0.8200/8190. On the other hand, a break above $0.8310 may bring kiwi to $0.8350.

 

Fundamental factors which may drive the pair lower are the expectations of better data in the US and serious drought in New Zealand.

 

Chart. H4 NZD/USD

 

 

 

 

 

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March 7: European session

 

EUR/USD started the day at $1.2965, reached $1.3044, but then started drifting down again on bad figures from Germany.

 

EUR/GBP rose today from levels around 0.8630 almost reaching 0.8700.

 

EUR/CHF rose by 30 pips from $1.2300. Franc weakened as market players were awaiting comments from the SNB’s Jordan, but there are no news about that, so it seems that he didn’t speak.

 

GBP/USD is testing the levels below $1.5000.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-07/21854-march-7-european-session

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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March 8: Asian session

 

EUR/USD is trading just below $1.3100 after it gained about 140 pips yesterday. The single currency went up on Thursday after the ECB President Mario Draghi said that the region will gradually recover later this year even as the regulator trimmed economic forecasts.

 

USD/JPY rose to 3 1/2-year maximum at 95.44 on speculation that an improving labor market will compel the Fed to slow stimulus, while Japan plans to extend easing policies. In addition, Japan posted current account deficit for a third month in a row.

 

Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened against the greenback after a report showed a bigger-than-expected decline in imports for China, their biggest trading partner. AUD/USD slid by 20 pips to $1.0245. NZD/USD slid to $0.8260.

 

GBP/USD keeps hovering around $1.5000. The pair retraced from yesterday’s high at $1.5082 printed on after the Bank of England kept monetary policy on hold. USD/CHF rose to 0.9445 after falling from 0.9488 yesterday. USD/CAD is consolidating around 1.0300.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-08/21859-march-8-asian-session

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Market Analytics:FBS Markets Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

fbsana.png

 

 

 

 

Key options expiring today

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (3 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2950, $1.3000 (large), $1.3075, $1.3100, $1.3130;

GBP/USD: $1.4900, $1.5000, $1.5100;

USD/JPY: 93.00, 93.30, 93.40, 93.75. 94.00, 95.00;

USD/CHF: 0.9400, 0.9570;

AUD/USD: $1.0200, $1.0205, $1.0250, $1.0290, $1.0300 (large);

NZD/USD: 0.8355;

USD/CAD: 1.0300 (large);

EUR/JPY: 121.00;

EUR/CHF: 1.2300, 1.2400.

 

flatline.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Have a profitable trade with FBS!

If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

Recent market news from FBS

 

 

 

Comment here: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/2013-03-08/21863-key-options-expiring-today

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